Geodetic Strain Rates Research Articles

Present-day stress field, strain rate field and seismicity of the Pannonian region: overview and integrated analysis

We present an overview of recent findings on the seismicity, stress field and strain rate field of the Pannonian region. We furthermore show new inferences for deformation mechanisms and lithospheric rheology via an integrated analysis of the datasets. The N-NW motion of the Dinarides and the opposite, SW motion of the E-and S-Carpathians induce shortening in the western and central Pannonian Basin while leading to regional shearing around the basin's SE boundary. This induces moderate seismic activity related to strike-slip and reverse faulting. Maximum horizontal stress and geodetic shortening directions generally agree, implying that upper crustal stresses and surface deformation correspond to the same forces. 2D rheological models confirm that the shallow upper crust is the only brittle layer in the Pannonian lithosphere, while the brittle-ductile transition zone could be as shallow as 6-9.5 km in the Danube Basin. Comparison of seismic moment rates and moment rate predictions from geodetic strain rates show that deep Pannonian sub-basins accumulate major seismic deficits. This could be explained by dominantly aseismic deformation of the weak upper crust, as supported by a comparison with case studies from different geodynamic environments. Stronger mountainous regions in the study area show no to moderate seismic deficits.

Empirical evidence for multi-decadal transients affecting geodetic velocity fields and derived seismicity forecasts in Italy

This study critically examines the use of geodetic strain rates for forecasting long-term earthquake rates in a slow-deforming region such as Italy, challenging the prevailing assumption of their temporal stationarity in interseismic stages for seismic hazard analyses. Typically, earthquake-rate models derived from geodesy assume stationary interseismic loading rates, with stress rates in the upper crust proportional to geodetic strain rates, leading to earthquake rates directly proportional to these strain rate tensors. However, our analysis unveils a pronounced correlation between the epicenters of earthquakes that occurred in the past 60–120 years and areas forecasted for higher future earthquake rates based on geodetic strain rates. This correlation appears weak and scattered in analyses of even older earthquakes. To corroborate our findings, we select the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (mw = 6.3) to prove that its apparently marginal viscoelastic relaxation significantly alters the time series of adjacent benchmarks for the following ~ 30–60 years, explaining the high correlation between recent earthquakes and strain rate peaks. Our findings require a methodological shift in interpreting geodetic data for earthquake forecasting, emphasizing the two-component (plate-tectonics-driven stationary long-term deformation, and decadal transient viscoelastic relaxation after an earthquake) nature of crustal stress accumulation recorded in geodetic data. We underscore the potential of geodesy-derived forecasts to provide deeper insights into seismic hazards, stressing the importance of acknowledging the long-term temporal variability inherent in geodetic measurements.

Strain accumulation in the Mentawai Forearc Sliver, Indonesia, inferred from continuous GNSS-derived strain rate

The Mentawai Forearc Sliver (MFS) is characterized by oblique deformation formed as slip partitioned between normal and parallel trench plate convergence. The surge of great earthquakes from 2004 to 2012 along the adjacent Sunda trench left a large unbroken segment known as the Mentawai Seismic Gap. Here, we adopted continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observation data to identify the present regional crustal deformation using geodetic strain rates. The principal strain rate, dilatation rate, and maximum shear strain rate are about 0.13 microstrain/yr, 0.2 microstrain/yr, and 0.1 microstrain/yr, respectively, with the range of its uncertainties between 0.01 and 0.04 microstrain/yr. The dilatation and maximum shear strain rates reveal the spatial coverage of strike-slip duplex and backthrust tectonics along the Mentawai Forearc Sliver.

The Upper Crustal Deformation Field of Greece Inferred From GPS Data and Its Correlation With Earthquake Occurrence

AbstractWe present a new geodetic strain rate and rotation rate model for Greece that has been derived using a highly dense GPS velocity field. The spatial distribution and the resolved rates of the various velocity gradient tensor quantities provided updated constraints on the present‐day upper crustal deformation in the region and revealed new details not reported previously. The spatial distribution of the second invariant demonstrated that the overall magnitude of strain rates is highest across two well‐defined provinces. The first follows the North Anatolian Fault and its two branches within the north Aegean, crosses central Greece and through the Gulf of Corinth it terminates in western Greece, while the second encompasses the extensional province of western Turkey and the eastern Aegean Sea islands. Our estimates revealed that shearing affects some of the fault‐bounded grabens of central Greece that lie to the SW of the North Aegean Basin implying considerable oblique extension. We identified a narrow region of counterclockwise rotation whose location and kinematics have been induced by the net effect across the intersection of the clockwise rotating domains of western and central Greece. The Aegean microplate and the Anatolian plate are separated by a wide transition zone which accommodates the curved stretching of the entire plate system. In both edges of the Hellenic forearc the dominant mode of crustal strain is E‐W extension. We found that earthquakes of M ≥ 5.6 are spatially well‐correlated with high‐strain areas, indicating that strain rate mapping could be used to inform future probabilistic seismic hazard analyses.

High-resolution velocity and strain rate fields in the Kumaun Himalaya: An implication for seismic moment budget

The collision between Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates results in a series of earthquakes, releasing stored elastic strain accumulated over a long period. This research utilizes 22 new and 26 previously published GPS velocities along with nine years of InSAR observations to estimate high-resolution velocity and strain rate fields across the Kumaun Himalaya. The resulting high-resolution velocity field ranges between 0.5 and 14 mm/yr relative to the India-fixed reference frame. The geodetic strain rate is not uniform across the study region and the higher strain rates are observed along the Main Central Thrust. The areal change rate along the Kumaun Himalaya indicates a significant amount of tectonic compression, with an average value of − 0.08 μstrain∕yr, while the maximum shear strain rate in the region has a mean value of 0.08 μstrain∕yr. The moment deficit rate, based on accumulated strain and energy release over 200 years, turns out to be 7.59 × 1018Nm∕yr along the Kumaun Himalaya. This suggests that the study region can generate a great earthquake (Mw 8.1) in the future.

Inverting Geodetic Strain Rates for Slip Deficit Rate in Complex Deforming Zones: An Application to the New Zealand Plate Boundary

AbstractThe potential for future earthquakes on faults is often inferred from inversions of geodetically derived surface velocities for locking on faults using kinematic models such as block models. This can be challenging in complex deforming zones with many closely spaced faults or where deformation is not readily described with block motions. Furthermore, surface strain rates are more directly related to coupling on faults than surface velocities. We present a methodology for estimating slip deficit rate directly from strain rate and apply it to New Zealand for the purpose of incorporating geodetic data in the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The strain rate inversions imply slightly higher slip deficit rates than the preferred geologic slip rates on sections of the major strike‐slip systems including the Alpine Fault, the Marlborough Fault System and the northern part of the North Island Fault System. Slip deficit rates are significantly lower than even the lowest geologic estimates on some strike‐slip faults in the southern North Island Fault System near Wellington. Over the entire plate boundary, geodetic slip deficit rates are systematically higher than geologic slip rates for faults slipping less than one mm/yr but lower on average for faults with slip rates between about 5 and 25 mm/yr. We show that 70%–80% of the total strain rate field can be attributed to elastic strain due to fault coupling. The remaining 20%–30% shows systematic spatial patterns of strain rate style that is often consistent with local geologic style of faulting.

Comparative Analysis of Methods to Estimate Geodetic Strain Rates from GNSS Data in Italy

Our ability to estimate surface deformation rates in the Central Mediterranean has considerably enhanced in the last decade thanks to the growth of continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks. Focusing on the Apennine/Alpine seismogenic belt, this area offers the opportunity to test the use of geodetic strain rates for constraining active tectonic processes and for seismic hazard assessments. Given the importance of geodetic strain rate models in modern hazard estimation approaches, however, one has to consider that different approaches can provide significantly different strain rate maps. Despite the increasing availability of GNSS velocity data, in fact, strain rate models can significantly differ, because of the spatial heterogeneity of GNSS stations locations and inherent strategies in computing strain rates. Using a dense GNSS velocity dataset, this study examines three methods for estimating horizontal strain rates, described in the recent literature and selected to represent approaches of increasing mathematical complexity. Advantages, drawbacks and optimal settings of each method are discussed. The main result is an ensemble of strain rate models that enable the evaluation of epistemic uncertainties in seismicity rates models constrained by geodetic velocities.

Shallow structure and late quaternary slip rate of the Osaka Bay fault, western Japan

The Osaka Bay is situated at a seismically active region north of the Median Tectonic Line and east of Awaji Island in western Japan, known as part of the Kinki Triangle and the Niigata–Kobe Tectonic Zone. Dense distribution of active faults and high geodetic strain rates characterize the region, posing a major seismic hazard potential to the coastal and metropolitan areas of the Kansai region. To investigate the shallow structure and recent deformation history of active faults in the Osaka Bay, we acquired 15 high-resolution seismic profiles using a Mini-GI airgun and a Boomer as active sources, together with multi-beam bathymetry data across the Osaka Bay Fault. Our seismic sections image a ~ 0.1 to 3.7 km-wide asymmetric anticline forelimb above the Osaka Bay Fault at shallow depths, coupled with a ~ 2.6 km-wide syncline to the west, and a broad, ~ 11 km-wide syncline in the footwall to the east. The synclinal axial surface at shallow depths measured in this study ranges 75°–89°. We observe the vertical displacement of the Osaka Bay Fault increasing northwards along strike. The sediment thickness on the hanging wall, however, is variable, modified by non-tectonic processes such as by tidal currents, affecting the geometry of growth strata. The most recent deformation by the Osaka Bay Fault reaches to near the seafloor by active folding, with large vertical offsets of 8–14 m over the last ~ 11 ka, and 5–11 m over the last ~ 5 ka. By combining with previously reported borehole age data, the average uplift rate on the Osaka Bay Fault is estimated to be ~ 1.0 to 1.7 m/ka during the Latest Pleistocene to Holocene. The inferred slip of the Osaka Bay Fault during the Holocene is likely to account for > 5% of the regional geodetic strain accumulation within the Kinki Triangle. Further studies to evaluate the Holocene slip rates of regional faults are necessary to assess the seismic hazards and the internal strain budgets within the Kinki Triangle and the Niigata–Kobe Tectonic Zone.Graphical abstract

Accounting for the Variability of Earthquake Rates within Low-Seismicity Regions: Application to the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

ABSTRACT The distribution of earthquakes in time and space is seldom stationary, which could hinder a robust statistical analysis, particularly in low-seismicity regions with limited data. This work investigates the performance of stationary Poisson and spatially precise forecasts, such as smoothed seismicity models (SSMs), in terms of the available training data. Catalog bootstrap experiments are conducted to: (1) identify the number of training data necessary for SSMs to perform spatially better than the least-informative Uniform Rate Zone (URZ) models; and (2) describe the rate temporal variability accounting for the overdispersion and nonstationarity of seismicity. Formally, the strict-stationarity assumption used in traditional forecasts is relaxed into local and incremental stationarity (i.e., a catalog is only stationary in the vicinity of a given time point t) along with self-similar behavior described by a power law. The results reveal rate dispersion up to 10 times higher than predicted by Poisson models and highlight the impact of nonstationarity in assuming a constant mean rate within training-forecast intervals. The temporal rate variability is translated into a reduction of spatial precision by means of URZ models. First, counting processes are devised to capture rate distributions, considering the rate as a random variable. Second, we devise a data-driven method based on geodetic strain rate to spatially delimit the precision of URZs, assuming that strain/stress rate is related to the timescales of earthquake interactions. Finally, rate distributions are inferred from the available data within each URZ. We provide forecasts for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model update, which can exhibit rates up to ten times higher in low-seismicity regions compared with SSMs. This study highlights the need to consider nonstationarity in seismicity models and underscores the importance of appropriate statistical descriptions of rate variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.

Fault Kinematic Modeling Along a Widely Deformed Plate Boundary in Southern Italy

AbstractConvergent plate boundaries are often characterized by widely deformed zones, where coexisting tectonic processes and variable fault kinematics can occur. Here, we quantify this variability along the Africa‐Eurasia deformed boundary in southern Italy, based on the evaluation of geodetic strain rate by recent space geodesy observations and plate motions, which are integrated by main geometric properties of detected faults in the area. We propose a compilation of 160 known faults. We use numerical methods to predict fault kinematics and net slip rate, due to the geodetic deformation field with the inclusion of fault strain accommodation. The obtained tectonic setting is compared with the observable, showing a fault rake agreement of the 73%, which allows us to consider this approach potentially favorable to improve the knowledge of fault kinematics along diffuse plate boundaries, when fault properties are not directly available.

Implications of seismic and GNSS strain rates in Himachal, Kashmir and Ladakh

We report the present day GNSS velocities (2015–2021) and strain rates in Himachal, Kashmir and Ladakh Himalaya covering the rupture zones of the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake and the 1905 Kangra earthquake. Geodetic strain rates estimated from GPS velocities of about 58 sites spanning last two decades of measurements indicate a mean compression rate of − 32.5 ns/year (nanostrain/year) and dilatation of − 37.3 ns/year. Seismic strain rates are estimated using both the instrumental period (1964–2021) and historical earthquakes since 1500 AD in this region. Seismic strain rates during the instrumental period of the past 50 + years indicate a mean compression rate of − 28.1 ns/year and it slightly decreases to − 21.7 ns/year after including the historical earthquakes of the past 520 years. The Azimuth of the seismic strain tensor for the instrumental and historic periods and geodetic strain tensor is broadly consistent with orientation of major faulting in this region suggesting uniform compression over a long-time interval justifying combined analysis of the strain rate field to determine the seismic potential of the region. Composite analysis of geodetic and seismic strain rates and the associated moments estimate the accumulated strain budget of ~ 1E + 21 Nm in the past 520 years which has a potential of generating future earthquake of Mw > 8 in this segment of Northwest Himalaya.

Geodetic Strain Rates for the 2022 Update of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

ABSTRACT Geodetic data in plate boundary zones reflect the accrual of tectonic strain and stress, which will ultimately be released in earthquakes, and so they can provide valuable insights into future seismic hazards. To incorporate geodetic measurements of contemporary deformation into the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022), we derive a range of strain-rate models from published interseismic Global Navigation Satellite Systems velocities for New Zealand. We calculate the uncertainty in strain rate excluding strain from the Taupō rift–Havre trough and Hikurangi subduction zone, which are handled separately, and the corresponding moment rates. A high shear strain rate occurs along the Alpine fault and the North Island dextral fault belt, as well as the eastern coast of the North Island. Dilatation rates are primarily contractional in the South Island and less well constrained in the North Island. Total moment accumulation derived using Kostrov-type summation varies from 0.64 to 2.93×1019 N·m/yr depending on method and parameter choices. To account for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the strain-rate results, we use four different methods for estimating strain rate and calculate various average models and uncertainty metrics. The maximum shear strain rate is similar across all methods, whereas the dilatation rate and overall strain rate style differ more significantly. Each method provides an estimate of its own uncertainty propagated from the data uncertainties, and variability between methods provides an additional estimate of epistemic uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty in New Zealand tends to be higher than the aleatory uncertainty estimates provided by any single method, and epistemic uncertainty on dilatation rate exceeds the aleatory uncertainty nearly everywhere. These strain-rate models were provided to the NZ NSHM 2022 team and used to develop fault-slip deficit rate models and scaled seismicity rate models.

Upper Plate and Subduction Interface Deformation Models in the 2022 Revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

ABSTRACT As part of the 2022 revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022), deformation models were constructed for the upper plate faults and subduction interfaces that impact ground-shaking hazard in New Zealand. These models provide the locations, geometries, and slip rates of the earthquake-producing faults in the NZ NSHM 2022. For upper plate faults, two deformation models were developed: a geologic model derived directly from the fault geometries and geologic slip rates in the NZ Community Fault Model version 1.0 (NZ CFM v.1.0); and a geodetic model that uses the same faults and fault geometries and derives fault slip-deficit rates by inverting geodetic strain rates for back slip on those specified faults. The two upper plate deformation models have similar total moment rates, but the geodetic model has higher slip rates on low-slip-rate faults, and the geologic model has higher slip rates on higher-slip-rate faults. Two deformation models are developed for the Hikurangi–Kermadec subduction interface. The Hikurangi–Kermadec geometry is a linear blend of the previously published interface models. Slip-deficit rates on the Hikurangi portion of the deformation model are updated from the previously published block models, and two end member models are developed to represent the alternate hypotheses that the interface is either frictionally locked or creeping at the trench. The locking state in the Kermadec portion is less well constrained, and a single slip-deficit rate model is developed based on plate convergence rate and coupling considerations. This single Kermadec realization is blended with each of the two Hikurangi slip-deficit rate models to yield two overall Hikurangi–Kermadec deformation models. The Puysegur subduction interface deformation model is based on geometry taken directly from the NZ CFM v.1.0, and a slip-deficit rate derived from published geodetic plate convergence rate and interface coupling estimates.

Earthquake size distributions are slightly different in compression vs extension

The earthquake size distribution is described by an exponential function governed by the b-value parameter. It has already been proven that the b-value depends on the differential stress and tectonic settings. Here, we propose a new method to group earthquakes using the kinematics of the interseismic geodetic strain rates and horizontal stress directions. We select the Italian peninsula as a case study, and we find that the b-value is significantly larger in the extensional setting than in the compressional one, although these differences are much smaller than previously reported. We also show that spatial fragmentation of uniform tectonic regimes leads to inaccurate b-value estimation due to the undersampling of earthquake size distribution. Given these results, we conclude that stress directions and geodetic data complement other geological or geophysical information and reduce the arbitrariness in drawing zones for a seismotectonic model.

Glacial-isostatic-adjustment strain rate–stress paradox in the Western Alps and impact on active faults and seismicity

Abstract. In many regions formerly glaciated during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) explains most of the measured uplift and deformation rates. GIA is also proposed as a key process contributing to fault activity and seismicity shortly after the LGM and potentially up to the present day. Here, we study the impact of GIA on present-day fault activity and seismicity in the Western Alps. We show that, in the upper crust, GIA induces horizontal compressive stress perturbations associated with horizontal extension rates. The latter agree with the observed geodetic strain rates and with the seismicity deformation patterns. Yet, in nearly all cases, the GIA stress perturbations tend to either inhibit fault slip or promote fault slip with the wrong mechanism compared to the seismicity deformation style. Thus, although GIA from the LGM explains a major part of the Western Alp geodetic strain rates, it does not drive or promote the observed seismicity (which must be driven by other processes). This apparent strain rate–stress paradox results from the gradual diminution over time of the finite shortening induced in the upper crust by the Würm ice cap load. A direct corollary of our results is that seismicity and seismic-hazard studies in the Western Alps cannot directly integrate geodetic velocities and strain rates but instead require detailed modeling of the GIA transient impact.

Coherent Spatial Variations in the Productivity of Earthquake Sequences in California and Nevada

Abstract Earthquakes are clustered in space and time, with individual sequences composed of events linked by stress transfer and triggering mechanisms. On a global scale, variations in the productivity of earthquake sequences—a normalized measure of the number of triggered events—have been observed and associated with regional variations in tectonic setting. Here, we focus on resolving systematic variations in the productivity of crustal earthquake sequences in California and Nevada—the two most seismically active states in the western United States. We apply a well-tested nearest-neighbor algorithm to automatically extract earthquake sequence statistics from a unified 40 yr compilation of regional earthquake catalogs that is complete to M ∼ 2.5. We then compare earthquake sequence productivity to geophysical parameters that may influence earthquake processes, including heat flow, temperature at seismogenic depth, complexity of quaternary faulting, geodetic strain rates, depth to crystalline basement, and faulting style. We observe coherent spatial variations in sequence productivity, with higher values in the Walker Lane of eastern California and Nevada than along the San Andreas fault system in western California. The results illuminate significant correlations between productivity and heat flow, temperature, and faulting that contribute to the understanding and ability to forecast crustal earthquake sequences in the area.

Depth-dependent seismic anomalies and potential asperity linked to fluid-driven crustal structure in Garhwal region, NW Himalaya

Characterizing the stress heterogeneity and crustal complexities are essential to understand the important aspects of rupture development and its propagation in a tectonically active region. We analyze a continuous seismic data (1999–2020) to estimate stress drops, b-value, fractal dimension (Dc) and focal mechanisms using a local network of 14 broadband stations. Seismic periodicity on a Himalayan major thrust above locked zone, involves long period of stress accumulation and interseismic strain. There exist a good spatio-temporal-depth correlation between the estimated results which indicates the positive anomaly at 12–14 km (stress transition) beneath the Chamoli region. Interestingly, this region shows maximum geodetic strain rate with comparatively high-stress drop, low coefficient friction value and very low b- (0.583 ± 0.02) and Dc- (1.20 ± 0.01) values. Majority of moderate to strong earthquakes and swarms activity have occurred in this region with maximum crustal accommodation. It is also observed that the significant temporal decrease in b-value always followed by moderate earthquakes. Here shallow crustal potential seismogenic asperity controls the earthquake's stress drop and rupture propagation. The observed correlations strongly support the evidence of entrapped fluid-faults interaction which alters pore pressure and generates numerous ruptures. Also, the role of pressurized entrapped fluids and roughness of fault-plane responsible for low friction zone and microseismicity. Continuous stress accumulation along the fault-plane within the asperity could release significant amount of energy in future.

Long silence on the East Anatolian Fault Zone (Southern Turkey) ends with devastating double earthquakes (6 February 2023) over a seismic gap: implications for the seismic potential in the Eastern Mediterranean region

On 6 February 2023, an earthquake with magnitude M w c . 7.0 on the Narlı Fault, a fault sub-parallel to the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), initiated a chain of large earthquakes on the EAFZ. The earthquakes occurred in a seismic gap with low geodetic strain rates and low background seismicity, where deformation is distributed across a wide fault zone and a long recurrence time of historical earthquakes. The c. 50 km long rupture of the Narlı Fault towards Pazarcık led to an M w 7.8 left-lateral strike-slip earthquake breaking a c. 300 km section of the c. 600 km long EAFZ bilaterally with a total duration of more than 80 s. Toward the SW, the rupture propagated on the c. 100 km long Amanos segment with a peak surface offset of 5 m, before diminishing toward the Hatay graben. In the NE direction, the rupture reached a peak surface offset of 7 m before sharply declining at the termination of the 2020 M w 6.8 Sivrice earthquake rupture. A second large earthquake with M w 7.6 occurred 9 h later on the Çardak Fault, located at the western margin of (and sub-parallel to) the EAFZ and breaking the surface with almost 9 m of left-lateral slip (average of c. 4 m). Following these large earthquakes, the increase in the regional stress led to a rapid seismic activation in a broad region from central to eastern Anatolia, loading the faults at various scales and increasing seismic hazard. Two weeks after the initiation of the seismic crisis, a third earthquake with M w 6.4 occurred at the southern boundary of the Hatay graben, near the southwestern termination of the Amanos rupture. The earthquakes caused significant loss of human life, devastating 12 cities. We evaluate the observations prior to the ruptures, and present preliminary seismological results with surface displacements from sub-pixel correlation of optical satellite images and the stress perturbations computed on the nearby faults based on preliminary slip models. The re-evaluation of the seismic potential in light of the recent and historical earthquakes provides some new insight on seismic hazard assessment. The recent series of events on the EAFZ is an important reminder that large faults can generate very large earthquakes on multiple segments. The seismic potential of large earthquakes on these fault zones can be estimated only by considering multiple seismic cycles and moment deficits from very large earthquakes. Supplementary material : Supplementary figures and tables are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6567094

Quantification of geodetic strain rate uncertainties and implications for seismic hazard estimates

SUMMARYGeodetic velocity data provide first-order constraints on crustal surface strain rates, which in turn are linked to seismic hazard. Estimating the 2-D surface strain tensor everywhere requires knowledge of the surface velocity field everywhere, while geodetic data such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) only have spatially scattered measurements on the surface of the Earth. To use these data to estimate strain rates, some type of interpolation is required. In this study, we review methodologies for strain rate estimation and compare a suite of methods, including a new implementation based on the geostatistical method of kriging, to compare variation between methods with uncertainty based on one method. We estimate the velocity field and calculate strain rates in southern California using a GNSS velocity field and five different interpolation methods to understand the sources of variability in inferred strain rates. Uncertainty related to data noise and station spacing (aleatoric uncertainty) is minimal where station spacing is dense and maximum far from observations. Differences between methods, related to epistemic uncertainty, are usually highest in areas of high strain rate due to differences in how gradients in the velocity field are handled by different interpolation methods. Parameter choices, unsurprisingly, have a strong influence on strain rate field, and we propose the traditional L-curve approach as one method for quantifying the inherent trade-off between fit to the data and models that are reflective of tectonic strain rates. Doing so, we find total variability between five representative strain rate models to be roughly 40 per cent, a much lower value than roughly 100 per cent that was found in previous studies (Hearn et al.). Using multiple methods to tune parameters and calculate strain rates provides a better understanding of the range of acceptable models for a given velocity field. Finally, we present an open-source Python package (Materna et al.) for calculating strain rates, Strain_2D, which allows for the same data and model grid to be used in multiple strain rate methods, can be extended with other methods from the community, and provides an interface for comparing strain rate models, calculating statistics and estimating strain rate uncertainty for a given GNSS data set.

CRUSTAL DEFORMATION IN NW IRAN: INSIGHTS FROM DIFFERENT INVARIANT AND VARIANT COMPONENTS OF GEODETIC STRAIN RATE TENSORS

Abstract. Northwest of Iran, as a tectonically active region, has experienced numerous devastating earthquakes. That is why it is so important to study the earth deformation in this area and to provide more precise insights. So far, most researchers have had the preference of using the invariant component of strain rate tensor for investigating the Earth's shape deformation in the region. However, to examine the efficiency of the variant components of the geodesic strain rate tensor in interpreting deformations of north-western Iran, we have in this article maps of variant components of the geodetic strain rate tensor (normal strain rate along north and eastbound). Using the velocity field gathered from a previous article, and also using a simple and straightforward method, the strain rate tensors were calculated. The obtained contraction along the north direction (from the normal strain along this axis) confirms the Eurasia-Arabia collision. Besides, the obtained extension along the east direction and the derived expansion of the dilatation, show the effect of Anatolian motion to the west and eastward movement of the central Iran plateau on the tectonic structure of the studied area. These two results showed that the variant component of strain rate tensor also provides us with useful information about a region shape deformation.