Geodetic Data Research Articles

Satellite Geodesy Uncovers 15 m of Slip on a Detachment Fault Prior to the 2018 Collapse at Anak Krakatau, Indonesia

AbstractOn 22 December 2018, parts of the Anak Krakatau edifice collapsed, triggering a deadly tsunami. To investigate pre‐collapse surface displacements, we analyzed Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite geodetic data from 2006 to 2018, acquired from ALOS‐1 (2006–2011), COSMO‐SkyMED (2012–2018), and Sentinel‐1 (2014–2018). We identified line‐of‐sight displacements on the southwestern flank throughout the study period. Inversion of COSMO‐SkyMED data revealed a rectangular dislocation with a cumulative slip of 12 m from April 2012 to December 2018. Fixing the fault geometry, we found the optimal slip for time periods corresponding to slip rate changes, ranging from 1.2 to 3.1 m/yr. The slip estimates for ALOS‐1 and Sentinel‐1 data were 0.88 m/yr and 1.1 m/yr, respectively, over their individual time periods. Overall, the detachment fault experienced approximately 15 m of slip from 2006 to 2018 with acceleration and deceleration periods, and a notable acceleration prior to the 2018 collapse.

Rupture process of the 2019 Mw 6.8 Davao Del Sur earthquake, Philippines from geodetic and seismic data

Because of its complex tectonic setting, the Philippines experiences vigorous seismic activity. On December 15, 2019, an Mw 6.8 earthquake struck Davao del Sur, the Philippines, severely damaging infrastructure and adversely affecting the population. In this study, we used Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and teleseismic broadband data to explore the earthquake’s source parameters, rupture process, and tectonic characteristics through a Bayesian modeling approach and Coulomb stress analysis. An analysis of InSAR suggested that the mainshock occurred on an NW–SE oriented single plane within the Cotabato fault system, with the Makilala-Malungon fault being the causative fault. The Joint inversion revealed that the rupture initiated in the middle crust (depth: approximately 16.5 km), exhibiting a blind, left-lateral strike-slip fault rupture propagation with minimal reverse slip and no surface rupture. The slip was concentrated in a distinct asperity spanning a depth of 3–24 km, with the peak slip reaching approximately 1.8 m. The source time function of this event indicated a single pulse with a total source duration of approximately 17 s. The static stress drop value was low, which may be related to the brittle condition of the crust. Coulomb stress changes calculations suggested earthquake risk in the future.

A Composite Fault Model for the 2024 MW 7.4 Hualien Earthquake Sequence in Eastern Taiwan Inferred From GNSS and InSAR Data

AbstractOn 2 April 2024, an MW 7.4 earthquake struck the northern Longitudinal Valley in eastern Taiwan, about 18 km SSW of Hualien, causing damage and casualties. In this study, we investigated a comprehensive geodetic data set, employing Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements to assess the rupture geometry associated with earthquake sequence. Although geodetic data can be satisfactorily reproduced by simple single‐fault models (i.e., a high‐angle E‐dipping plane related to the Longitudinal Valley Fault (LVF), or a gentle W‐dipping surface associated with the Central Range Fault, CRF), a composite model involving the rupture of different fault segments (a major CRF‐related W‐dipping fault, a deep segment of the E‐dipping LVF, and the Milun Fault) is able to explain the observations, the distribution of seismicity, and the complex structural arrangement of the northernmost sector of the Longitudinal Valley.

A Perspective on the Rupture States of Complex Earthquake Scenarios in the 2023 USGS Seismicity Model for the Western U.S. Faults

Abstract The 2023 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) seismicity model for faults in the western United States (USGS-SMF-WUS) includes many earthquake scenarios (EQS) that rupture multifault sections (MFS), reflecting decades of observations that large crustal earthquakes often rupture sections of different neighboring faults in complex ways. Many of the complex MFS scenarios include rupture sections, on different faults, that are not contiguous, with spacing up to 15 km. The USGS-SMF-WUS uses an inversion methodology, referred to as magnitude-rate optimization, to optimally formulate the occurrence rates of the EQS in such a way that they collectively release the accumulating seismic moment rates on faults, at subsection level, defined by various types of geologic, geodetic, and seismologic data and constraints. This raises questions about the treatment of the MFS scenarios in the USGS-SMF-WUS regarding their rupture states and how that could potentially impact the magnitude-rate optimization and ground motions (GMs) for hazard analysis. Among many different possible rupture states for the MFS earthquakes, the two extreme scenarios could be visualized as (1) a series of noncontiguous sections rupturing in such a way that their total seismic moment and GM footprints are scaled with the sum of their rupture areas and (2) a series of noncontiguous triggered events, grouped together based on the spacing between the participating fault sections and other criteria, each releasing seismic moment and generating GM footprints that are scaled with its own rupture area. It will be shown later that the average slips on the participating sections for these two extreme rupture states would not be the same. In addition, the GM footprints from these two rupture states would be different and the differences are frequency dependent. This is especially the case when considering the complexity of rupture directivity on the participating fault sections in the USGS-SMF-WUS. It is the objective of this study to explore and discuss the implications of the triggered rupture state assumption in estimating the average slips and GM footprints of the MFS earthquakes in the USGS-SMF-WUS.

Use of tsunami observations for resolving coseismic slip of recent and historic large submarine earthquakes

Tsunamis generated by seafloor displacements accompanying large submarine earthquakes provide sensitivity to absolute slip position and distribution for offshore faulting analogous to that of geodetic observations for landward faulting. Tsunami recordings at deep‐water and near‐shore ocean bottom pressure sensors and tide gauges, along with runup and inundation measurements, can now be reliably modeled using detailed bathymetric structures and robust numerical codes. As a result, tsunami observations now play an important role in quantifying coseismic slip distributions for large submarine earthquakes in subduction zones and other tectonic environments. Applications of joint modeling or inversion of seismic, geodetic and tsunami observations for recent major earthquakes are described, highlighting the specific contributions of the tsunami observations to source model resolution. Tsunami observations provide unique information on the up‐dip extent of earthquake coseismic slip on subduction zone megathrust faults and occurrence of near‐trench slip, which are usually not well constrained by seismic and land‐based geodetic signals. Tsunami signals also help to detect offshore slow slip that is not evident in seismic or land‐based geodetic data and to balance geophysical constraints on ruptures that extend from on‐shore to off‐shore. Tsunami runup measurements and stratigraphic deposits further provide unique constraints on large earthquake ruptures that occurred prior to modern geophysical instrumentation.

Strain Partitioning in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau From Kinematic Modeling of High‐Resolution Sentinel‐1 InSAR and GNSS

AbstractFault slip rates estimated from geodetic data are being integrated into seismic hazard models. The standard approach requires modeling velocities and relative (micro‐)plate motions, which is challenging for fault‐based models. We present a new approach to directly invert strain rates to solve for slip rates and distributed strain simultaneously. We generate velocity and strain rate fields over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, utilizing Sentinel‐1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data spanning 2014–2023. We derive slip rates using block modeling and by inverting strain rates. Our results show a partitioning between localized strain on faults and distributed deformation. The direct inversion of strain rates matches the geodetic data best when incorporating distributed moment sources, accounting for a similar proportion to on‐fault sources. The direct strain methodology also aligns best with the independent geological slip rates, especially near fault tips. As high‐resolution strain rate fields become increasingly available, we recommend direct inversion as the preferred practice.

GCMEbox: A MATLAB toolbox for extracting and analyzing common-mode errors from GNSS time series

High-precision global navigation satellite system (GNSS) time series data contain rich tectonic and non-tectonic motion information. However, such data also have common-mode errors (CME) related to spatiotemporal characteristics. CME will produce bias in accurate and reliable GNSS station positions and velocities estimations, ultimately deciphering erroneous geophysical signals. Currently, CME extraction methods can be divided into three categories: regional stack filtering, reference frame filtering, and statistical signal decomposition. The third method is widely used in geodetic data processing, including GNSS time series analysis, global time-varying gravity signal extraction, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) time series analysis, etc. The demand for GNSS time series analysis software with interactive, visualization, and multifunctional features has also increased with the increase in GNSS stations. Therefore, we developed gCMEbox based on MATLAB. The gCMEbox’s primary functions include GNSS time series preprocessing, multiple statistical signal decomposition algorithms for extracting CME, GNSS time series analysis, visualization, velocity field construction, and generation of multiple time series post-processing products. Based on GNSS time series data, this study utilized the gCMEbox for data preprocessing, including format conversion, outlier removal, missing data recovery, etc. By applying statistical signal decomposition methods, gCMEbox successfully extracted CME. The primary objective of this study is to share this toolbox with the scientific community, providing a comprehensive tool for GNSS time series analysis and applications.

Coseismic surface ruptures of 20 strike-slip earthquakes measured from geodetic imaging data

Observations of coseismic surface ruptures are widely used for examining faulting mechanics and kinematics, and in fault displacement hazard analysis. Here, first, we provide new remote sensing observations of 20 historic surface rupturing continental strike-slip earthquakes (6.1 ≤ Mw≤ 7.9). To measure the near-field surface deformation pattern, we have processed a range of raw radar and optical images from satellite and aerial platforms with pixel tracking techniques, and in two cases using standard interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). We provide a range of observations, including surface displacement maps that constrain at least the horizontal component of surface motion (2D), and for three events the full 3D components. Second, we provide strain invariants for each event, which includes the finite dilatational strain, strain magnitudes, the vorticity, and maximum shear strain. Third, we provide a total of 134 surface fault rupture traces that are mapped manually from the displacement maps. Finally, we provide 2648 measurements of coseismic horizontal fault-parallel surface fault slip that are measured objectively using swath profiles with a function fitting method that we have developed.

Characterization of the active fault deformation zone of the Chegualin Fault in the alluvial plain of southwestern Taiwan

The activity of a creeping active fault poses significant challenges to engineering structures due to surface deformation. Therefore, quantifying the strain concentration caused by an active fault, delineating the extent and location of the Active Fault Deformation Zone (AFDZ), estimating long-term deformation trends, and predicting future deformations are crucial in the field of engineering geology.This study comprehensively integrates multi-timescale analytical methods by incorporating detailed geodetic data, rupture surveys, morphotectonic analysis, geological borehole data, biochronological data, radiocarbon dating, and Holocene uplift rate analysis to identify or confirm the locations of active faults and the long-term evolution trends of active deformation zones. Based on our findings, three active fault planes are identified, with one possibly being the main fault with the highest activity. Furthermore, by comparing long-term deformation rates derived from isochrone lines with short-term deformation rates obtained from leveling, we observe a risk of slip rate deficit. These findings have significant implications for engineering geology. As a general contribution, our study can serve as a site screening strategy for similar locations. Regarding the infrastructure we targeted, we provide critical input parameters for further numerical models (such as the trishear model) to simulate surface deformation, and offer essential design parameters for structures. Considering potential coseismic deformation on the investigated fault, these results are fundamental for future investigations or mitigation plans.

Adjoint-based inversion for stress and frictional parameters in earthquake modeling

We present an adjoint-based optimization method to invert for stress and frictional parameters used in earthquake modeling. The forward problem is linear elastodynamics with nonlinear rate-and-state frictional faults. The misfit functional quantifies the difference between simulated and measured particle displacements or velocities at receiver locations. The misfit may include windowing or filtering operators. We derive the corresponding adjoint problem, which is linear elasticity with linearized rate-and-state friction and, for forward problems involving fault normal stress changes, nonzero fault opening, with time-dependent coefficients derived from the forward solution. The gradient of the misfit is efficiently computed by convolving forward and adjoint variables on the fault. The method thus extends the framework of full-waveform inversion to include frictional faults with rate-and-state friction. In addition, we present a space-time dual-consistent discretization of a dynamic rupture problem with a rough fault in antiplane shear, using high-order accurate summation-by-parts finite differences in combination with explicit Runge–Kutta time integration. The dual consistency of the discretization ensures that the discrete adjoint-based gradient is the exact gradient of the discrete misfit functional as well as a consistent approximation of the continuous gradient. Our theoretical results are corroborated by inversions with synthetic data. We anticipate that adjoint-based inversion of seismic and/or geodetic data will be a powerful tool for studying earthquake source processes; it can also be used to interpret laboratory friction experiments.

Geodetic monitoring of the recent activity and the dome forming eruption at Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia), 2010–2023

Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia) is infamous for the catastrophic eruption of 1985 that destroyed the villages of Armero and Chinchiná. However, this was not the volcano’s first destructive event; similar eruptions also occurred in 1595 and 1845. In 1985, the limited geodetic data available failed to provide a clear warning of the impending eruption. Since then, advancement in geodetic monitoring, now incorporating tilt and satellite geodesy, along with improvements in seismic, geochemical, geological and remote sensing monitoring, have enhanced hazards assessment and mitigated the risk during subsequent eruptions in 1989, 2012, and 2015–2019, as well as during periods of unrest over the last 13 years. Modeling of deformation data over the past 13 years reveals complex interactions between the local, shallow magmatic system beneath Nevado del Ruiz and a deep, regional magmatic system beneath Nevado de Santa Isabel, 9 km southwest of Nevado del Ruiz. Before February 2012, the volcano deflated because of the depressurization of the local shallow reservoir. This same reservoir later fueled ash emissions and gas release (2012–2023), and a dome-forming eruption (2015–2019). In contrast, the inflation observed from 2012 to 2023 is linked to the pressurization of the deep reservoir beneath the Nevado de Santa Isabel.

Tracking the 2007–2023 magma-driven unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Understanding and managing unrest at a volcano include i) ascertaining the magmatic distribution and migration, and ii) tracking the evolution of the shallow plumbing system. Here we use multi-technique geodetic data, mechanical models, and petrological simulations to define both aspects for the ongoing (2005-present) unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy. Results show a deformation source exhibiting progressive widening and shallowing, from 5.9 to 3.9 kilometres. Concurrently, a deeper tabular source at 8 km depth experiences limited but constant deflation. Petrological calculations explain inflation of the shallower source resulting from the rise of 0.06 to 0.22 cubic kilometres of magma from depth ≥8 kilometres. Our analysis provides strong evidence that magma ascent to depths shallower than 8 kilometres is the ultimate driver behind the ongoing unrest. This merging of geodetic and petrological approaches to track the evolution of a plumbing system better constrains magma ascent at volcanoes experiencing unrest.

Mapping Kinetic Energy Hotspots in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Using Surface Current Derived by Geodetic Observations and Data Assimilation

Harnessing ocean kinetic energy has emerged as a promising renewable energy solution in recent years. However, identifying optimal locations for extracting this energy remains a significant challenge. This study presents a novel scheme to estimate the total surface current (TSC) as permanent surface current by integrating geodetic data and in-situ measurements. The TSC is typically a combination of the geostrophic current, derived from dynamic topography, and the Ekman current. We utilize NOAA’s Ekman current data to complement the geostrophic current and obtain the TSC. To further enhance the accuracy of the TSC estimates, we employ a 3DVAR data assimilation method, incorporating local current meter observations. The results are verified against two control current meter stations. The data-assimilation process resulted in an improvement of 4 to 15 cm/s in the precision of calculated TSC. Using the assimilated TSC data, we then assess the kinetic energy potential and identify six regions with the most significant promise for marine kinetic energy extraction. This innovative approach can assist researchers and policymakers in targeting the most suitable locations for harnessing renewable ocean energy.

EVALUATION OF DEFORMATION PARAMETERS OF SILO FOUNDATIONS REINFORCED WITH SOIL-CEMENT ELEMENTS

The mandatory controlled criterion for steel silos is the limitation of foundation settlement and tilting, which is regulated by DBN V.2.6-221:2021. The threshold value of silo settlement is Smax,u = 150 mm. The most economical foundation solution is a large-sized slab on a natural base or a soil cushion. It is possible to stabilise the weak base by reinforcing it with vertical soil-cement elements (SCE). In Ukraine, most foundations have an underground gallery or silo floor. When the silos are first loaded, there is geodetic monitoring of the vertical settlement of the silo base and comparison of its data with the threshold values of settlement and tilting. The objective is to investigate the effect of limited-depth soil reinforcement on the stabilisation of the soil base and the average total foundation settlement. The task of the study is to create a methodology for predicting the impact of reinforcement with soil-cement elements on the parameters of the soil base general stiffness for a silo foundation. The research methods are geodetic monitoring of settlements around the perimeter of silo foundations during initial loading at four different elevators with different geological conditions. Thus, the predicting method of the impact while reinforcing with soil-cement elements on the general stiffness parameters of the soil base for the silo foundation was tested on the bases of silos for four elevators. These elevators represent different engineering and geological conditions. The proof of the methodology’s validity is the coincidence with the results of geodetic subsidence monitoring along the perimeter of silo foundations. According to the research results, it is possible to state that the reinforcement of the foundation base with vertical soil-cement elements allows for the effective stabilisation of soil parameters. We propose an evaluation method of the reinforcement effect with soil-cement elements in the form of the stabilisation coefficient for the soil base, kEi. We further prove the primary role of the soil-cement reinforcing elements operation and their length while stabilising the base. The base stiffness is stabilised at the compressible stratum depth and beyond the foundation boundaries. It is possible to use the method of reinforcement influence evaluation to determine the actual parameters of the stabilised soil base, n, according to geodetic monitoring data. The authors have studied the effect of limited depth reinforcement for stabilising the foundation. The research obtained the empirical dependence of the reinforcement required depth at given depth values for the base compressible layer. The authors proposed using the linearly deformed layer method, considering the operation of soil-cement elements as discrete soil reinforcement. The numerous experiments with the Finite Element Method confirm the high convergence of the calculated results with those obtained analytically. Keywords: foundation settlement, soil-cement element, geodetic monitoring, steel silo, foundation stiffness.

MATERIALIZING THE LANDSCAPE: DRONES, GEODESY, AND 3D PRINTERS IN A VIABLE AND ECONOMIC SOLUTION FOR 3D MODELING: DRONES, GEODESY, AND 3D PRINTERS IN A VIABLE AND ECONOMIC SOLUTION FOR 3D MODELING

In recent years, environmental modeling has become increasingly crucial for understanding and mitigating the impacts of human activities on the environment. However, traditional methods for environmental mapping, primarily those of physical understanding, face challenges related to accuracy, time, and cost. In this sense, this work aimed to evaluate the technical feasibility of altimetric mapping and 3D model construction using drones, precision geodesy, and 3D printing as an extremely effective and low-cost alternative for environmental modeling. The study focused spatially on the boundaries of the IFRN/Campus Macau terrain. The study was conducted in five stages: I) Literature review; II) Geodetic survey (GNSS); III) Aerophotogrammetric survey; IV) Processing of geodetic and aerophotogrammetric data; and V) 3D printing. A protocol was obtained for the elaboration with high vertical and horizontal accuracy of the Digital Surface Model (DSM), orthomosaic, and 3D model (virtual and physical) of the mapped environment. Regarding the 3D model, its printing allowed for a perfect understanding of the geomorphology of the mapped environment and the existing physical structures. The applied technique could be useful in various areas, such as enhancing the planning stage in civil construction, architecture, and environmental studies. Also becoming a great ally in future geomorphological and tactile cartography studies.

Empirical evidence for multi-decadal transients affecting geodetic velocity fields and derived seismicity forecasts in Italy

This study critically examines the use of geodetic strain rates for forecasting long-term earthquake rates in a slow-deforming region such as Italy, challenging the prevailing assumption of their temporal stationarity in interseismic stages for seismic hazard analyses. Typically, earthquake-rate models derived from geodesy assume stationary interseismic loading rates, with stress rates in the upper crust proportional to geodetic strain rates, leading to earthquake rates directly proportional to these strain rate tensors. However, our analysis unveils a pronounced correlation between the epicenters of earthquakes that occurred in the past 60–120 years and areas forecasted for higher future earthquake rates based on geodetic strain rates. This correlation appears weak and scattered in analyses of even older earthquakes. To corroborate our findings, we select the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (mw = 6.3) to prove that its apparently marginal viscoelastic relaxation significantly alters the time series of adjacent benchmarks for the following ~ 30–60 years, explaining the high correlation between recent earthquakes and strain rate peaks. Our findings require a methodological shift in interpreting geodetic data for earthquake forecasting, emphasizing the two-component (plate-tectonics-driven stationary long-term deformation, and decadal transient viscoelastic relaxation after an earthquake) nature of crustal stress accumulation recorded in geodetic data. We underscore the potential of geodesy-derived forecasts to provide deeper insights into seismic hazards, stressing the importance of acknowledging the long-term temporal variability inherent in geodetic measurements.

Co-seismic and post-seismic slip associated with the 2021 Mw5.9 Arkalochori, Central Crete (Greece) earthquake constrained by geodetic data and aftershocks

The co-seismic and post-seismic deformation field associated with the Mw5.9 Arkalochori main shock that occurred in central Crete (Greece) on 27 September 2021 is analyzed using Copernicus Sentinel-1A & 1B images, GNSS measurements and seismological data. The fault geometry is constrained through the joint inversion of multiple datasets and the slip distribution for the co-seismic and post-seismic period is obtained using a homogeneous half-space elastic model and the Steepest Descent Method. The results indicate a blind normal fault striking 215° with a 55° dip to the northwest and the co-seismic slip model suggests a nearly circular main slip patch (8 × 6 km2) with a maximum slip of 0.98 m. Post-seismic displacements started rapidly after the main shock followed by a gradual decay as highlighted by the calculated InSAR time series. The temporal evolution of post-seismic slip is described by a simple logarithmic function, decaying faster at the southwest part of the fault. The cumulative afterslip model suggests that the maximum post-seismic slip of 0.23 m occurred within a similar depth range compared to the co-seismic one, yet with a shift towards the southwest. Post-seismic slip inside the main shock rupture area is sustained, highlighting the slow recovery of locking in the co-seismic slip region. Afterslip (seismic or aseismic) played a dominant role in the early post-seismic period acting complementarily to the main rupture. Indications suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of the productive aftershock sequence may be driven afterslip, alongside other potential factors.

Spatiotemporal dominance of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation revealed by four decades of post-1973 Luhuo earthquake observations

Measuring surface displacements driven by afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation following large earthquakes enables inferring frictional and rheological properties of Earth's outermost layers where hazardous earthquakes occur. However, the two concurrent mechanisms generate similar and intertwined surface deformations, complicating the extraction of physical information from the measurements. Here, we quantify the spatiotemporal dominance of co-evolving afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation following the 1973 Ms 7.6 Luhuo earthquake in eastern Tibet, using 42 years (1976‒2018) of fault-crossing short-baseline observations. The finite-fault slip of this M7+ earthquake was constructed from triangulation data measured in 1961‒1975. Based on the model incorporating two postseismic relaxation mechanisms and calibrated by the measurements over four decades, we show that, in the temporal domain, afterslip may produce geodetically measurable deformations (>1.5 mm/yr) in local near-field regions even 20 years after the mainshock, with spatially broader impact within ∼10 years. Viscoelastic relaxation may last for nearly six decades, imposing a broad influence for three decades. In the spatial domain, afterslip may produce deformations within ∼2 times the seismogenic depth (SD; 20 km) from the fault, but dominantly in the near-field of ∼1 times the SD. In contrast, viscoelastic relaxation may affect a much wider region reaching 200 km. While afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation collectively affected the region ∼2 times the SD from the fault in the early postseismic period, their resulting deformations gradually separated in space with time, with afterslip-induced deformation shrinking toward the fault, and surface deformation caused by viscoelastic relaxation concentrating in the mid-field, ∼2–3 times the SD from the fault. Their spatiotemporal partitioning helps better learn fault frictional properties and lithospheric rheology based on geodetic data acquired from different domains.

Predicting bathymetry using multisource differential marine geodetic data with multilayer perceptron neural network

ABSTRACT We propose a method for enhancing the accuracy of bathymetry models based on a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network that integrates the differences in multisource marine geodetic data (MMGD) (longitude, latitude, reference bathymetry, slope, the meridional and prime components of vertical deflection, gravity anomaly, vertical gravity gradient, and mean dynamic topography). First, we use the MMGD differences between the shipborne sounding control points within 8′ × 8′ grid points and shipborne sounding control points as input data, as well as the differences between the topo_24.1 model and the measured bathymetric values at the control points as output data to train the MLP model. Second, we feed the input data from the central point of a 1′ × 1′ grid into the MLP model to obtain predictions, and then use the topo_24.1 model to recover the predicted bathymetry at the prediction point. We focus on the Caribbean Sea, and construct a Caribbean Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (CBCO1) model using MLP neural network. The reliability of MMGD, a CBCO2 model using MMGD, and the reliability and effectiveness of the overall method are demonstrated through comparisons with the CBCO2, GEBCO_2022, topo_24.1, DTU18 models at the checkpoints.

Physics-based assessment of earthquake potential on the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault system in southwestern China

The seismic hazard of a fault system is controlled by the maximum possible earthquake magnitude it can host. However, existing methods to estimate maximum magnitudes can result in large uncertainties or ignore their temporal evolution. Here, we show how the maximum possible earthquake magnitude of a fault system can be assessed by combining high-resolution fault coupling maps with a physics-based model from three-dimensional dynamic fracture mechanics confirmed by dynamic rupture simulations. We demonstrate the method on the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault system in southwestern China, where dense near-fault geodetic data has been acquired. Our results show that this fault system currently has the potential to generate Mw7.0 earthquakes with maximum magnitudes increasing to Mw7.3 by 2200. These results are supported by the observed rupture extents and recurrence times of historical earthquakes and the b values of current seismicity. Our work provides a practical way to assess the earthquake potential of natural faults.