Measures Of GDP Research Articles

Green growth and net zero policy in the UK: Some conceptual and measurement issues

This paper examines how the likelihood of a transition to net zero could play out on the UK's total factor productivity growth over the longer term. It does this in the context of a potential trade-off between net zero goals and productivity growth. We begin by discussing the concept of green growth and a green industrial revolution, and then relate the green economy to the circular economy, as well as GDP measurement and how this relates to productivity growth under climate policies. We use a simulation method for the projected growth under net zero of the electricity sector in Great Britain to provide a context on the consequences of increasing input growth as output growth declines, and the result shows that the 2020s are challenging decades as productivity declines by −3.24 % p.a. in the electricity sector due to the combination of high input and low output growth. However, our findings reveal that the 2030s and 2040s look more promising, with productivity growth of 3 % p.a. and 1.6 % p.a. respectively as electrification increases and fossil fuel and labour inputs decline. Overall, the analysis offers a glimpse of just how challenging raising even maintaining the level of TFP will be in that sector in the earlier years out to 2050.

Determinants Of Indonesian Exports To Australia For The Period 2000-2022

The purpose of this research is to measure of Indonesia's GDP, Exchange Rate and Inflation Rate, on Indonesian exports to Australia for 22 years from 20 00 to 202 2. The data used are secondary data obtained from, World Bank, Bank of Indonesia, BPS and Ministry of Trade. This research uses secondary data with time series data used Multiple Linear regression. The results of this research show that Indonesia's GDP, Inflation Rate, has a positive and significant influence on Indonesian exports to Australia, while Exchange Rate has a negative and significant Indonesian export to Australia.

Analysis Of The Effect Of Using Technology In Agricultural Cooperatives On Consumer Behavior: Case Study Of The Koperasi Konsumen Tani Sejahtera Bersama Batam (KTSBB)

The purpose of this research is to measure of Indonesia's GDP, Exchange Rate and Inflation Rate, on Indonesian exports to Australia for 22 years from 20 00 to 202 2. The data used are secondary data obtained from, World Bank, Bank of Indonesia, BPS and Ministry of Trade. This research uses secondary data with time series data used Multiple Linear regression. The results of this research show that Indonesia's GDP, Inflation Rate, has a positive and significant influence on Indonesian exports to Australia, while Exchange Rate has a (Kalaycıoğlu & Keskin, 2019)negative and significant Indonesian export to Australia.

Turning less into more: Measuring real GDP growth in the green transition

Proponents of degrowth query the compatibility of ecological sustainability with economic growth and a capitalist system predicated on the ongoing expansion of economic output. This article deploys insights from constructivist political economy and recent literature on the politics of technocratic expertise to build upon and challenge this analysis. Using UK national accounting practices as a case study, it explores how current approaches to GDP measurement both facilitate and obstruct the treatment of reduced material throughput as increased economic output, of “less” as “more”. Rather than advancing an alternative to GDP growth, it highlights how tensions between the pursuit of growth and the pursuit of sustainability might be reduced using conceptual resources drawn from within established approaches to national accounting and GDP measurement. Although far from a panacea, changes in technocratic practices of national accounting could reduce economic and political barriers to green transition policies.

An Examination of Socio-economic Well- being in Aspirational and Non-aspirational Districts of Assam: A Comparative Analysis of Their Performance

The Aspirational Districts Programme (ADP) led by the Government of India (GoI) aims to achieve developmental goals in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The ADP has endeavoured to shift the focus back to development. Post-Independence, India has recorded an upward trend in overall growth and development, but it still has a huge scope for improvement. This initiative of the GoI has generated evidence-based data for guiding policymakers regarding the existing gaps in various developmental parameters. The core approach of ADP has resulted in a data-driven governance system. The performance measurement of districts is vital for tracking and monitoring the progress as well as to compare with the benchmark District. However, measuring the performance of aspirational districts has always been a challenging task for administrators as development is multidimensional in scope and coverage. In this context, this article attempts to compare the performance of the seven aspirational districts with seven non-aspirational districts of Assam. The comparison is done on the basis of economic indicators and human well-being. The aspirational and non-aspirational districts are significantly different in terms of education, health–nutrition and basic infrastructure. The findings of this study advance the way for measuring the progress of a district/state/country in terms of overall development, going beyond the measures of GDP only.

Debt sustainability and policy targets: Full employment or structural balance? A simulation for the Spanish economy

The idea that Spain should reduce its structural fiscal deficit has been playing a crucial role in determining the orientation of its fiscal policy for the past three decades, in line with the European fiscal rules. Nevertheless, relying on unobservable variables for its estimation might lead to an underestimation of potential GDP and to the application of pro-cyclical measures in times of crisis. Following the Updated Okun Method to estimate an alternative measure of potential GDP, which targets full employment, we simulate alternative fiscal policy scenarios for Spain from 2023 to 2028. Our results point to a better performance, both in terms of public debt sustainability and reduction of the unemployment rate, when focusing on an unemployment rate target rather than on the reduction of the structural fiscal balance. This suggests a departure from this indicator in guiding fiscal policy orientation in the context of the reform of the European fiscal rules.

Economic Growth and Human Well-being in India: Evidence through adjusted GDP measure

Economic Growth and Human Well-being in India: Evidence through adjusted GDP measure

Causal analysis of SDG achievements

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set common targets for countries all over the world for their economy and society. This research uses popular indices as antecedents (independent variables) to analyze the causal complexity of SDG achievements (outcome or dependent variable). For the antecedents, Inclusive Internet Index measures digital technology, Corruption Perception Index measures transparency and integrity, Global Innovation Index measures innovation, Global Entrepreneurship Monitor measures entrepreneurship, GDP measures economic growth, and Global Findex measures financial technology (fintech). It takes fuzzy set/Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) as the research method and applies it to data spanning the years 2020 (30 common countries) and 2021 (28 common countries), respectively. The results show multiple relationships for both 2020 and 2021, and each relationship consists of multiple antecedents. In addition, the causal relationships of the two calendar years appear similar. Implications are discussed herein, and following the research results, countries with different competitive advantages can choose the proper causal relationship to facilitate their own SDG achievements.

Macroeconomic Policies for a Sustainable World

ABSTRACT The urgency of the climate crisis is such that it needs to inform most policy-making. It represents a major threat to human development. Yet while the existence of the crisis is generally acknowledged, this has not affected macro-economic policy even though the climate crisis has major effects on the accepted objectives of macro-economic policy, including growth and economic stability. The paper explores changes in macro-economic policy needed for sustainability which should become an intrinsic and overriding objective of policy. Implications of doing so are explored, including replacing the growth objective with green/sustainable growth, altering the measurement of GDP accordingly; greatly increasing the weight given to the well-being of future generations with implications for interest and investment rates; and reforming taxes and expenditures. Ballooning of debt is justified to support a rapid transition to a carbon-free economy. Among high-income countries, the growth objective should be questioned. Low income countries need green growth to attain reasonable living standards. Large-scale resource transfers to low income countries are essential to support green expenditures for mitigation and especially adaptation. High priorities are a change in the approach of the IMF and World Bank, and innovative financial mechanisms to support the required transfers.

Midiendo el bienestar de los países: Índice de Progreso Social y PIB

Based on the contributions of Stiglitz et al. (2009) the Social Progress Index (SPI), a comprehensive measure of a country’s performance, was created. This paper proposes an alternative form of calculation and analyzes the relationship of the index with variables such as GDP or other measures of subjective well-being. The main results indicate that the new method of calculation provides more homogeneous results in terms of the classification of countries, compared to the original index. Thus, middle-income countries are the most susceptible to change, and the opportunities dimension is the one that would require special attention due to its low score and potential for improvement. Moreover, this dimension, together with GDP, has a statistically significant relationship with happiness (considered as a proxy for subjective well-being).

Real GDP and Productivity Measurement: What Do Macro Data Capture?

Since the publication of their 2021 "Blue Book", the UK's Office for National Statistics started to measure real GDP in the national accounts using double deflation. This methodological update follows the premise that "double deflation is internationally accepted as the best approach to producing volume estimates of industry Gross Value Added".

Climate-change scenarios require volatility effects to imply substantial credit losses: shocks drive credit risk not changes in economic trends

IntroductionLong-run Macro-Prudential stability objectives for the banking system have recently motivated a detailed focus on potential future credit risks stemming from climate change. Led by regulators and the NGFS, early approaches apply smooth, top-down scenarios that utilize carbon emissions data combined with physical risk metrics. This general climate stress test approach assesses future credit losses for individual firms and the banking system. While the NGFS approach is in its infancy, a number of discussion points have been raised related to how the approach assesses future credit risks. In contrast to the NGFS approach that focuses on changes to long-run economic growth trends, higher credit risks generally arise from unexpected economic shocks to cashflows and asset values. Systematic shocks that impact many firms like those observed during the last three economic recessions clearly produce higher volatility and systematic deviations from average economic trends.MethodsIn this paper we briefly review aspects of current climate stress test approaches to set the context for our primary focus on assessing future climate induced credit risk and credit risk volatility using a multi credit-factor portfolio framework applied to a benchmark US C&I credit portfolio. First we compare various NGFS climate scenarios using NGFS GDP measures to a CCAR severely adverse stress scenario. We then undertake two additional assessments of future climate driven credit risk by applying an assumed relationship between NGFS global mean temperatures (GMTs) and credit-factor volatilities. All three prospective climate credit risk assessments utilize an empirically-based, credit-factor model estimated from market-based measures of credit risk to highlight the potential role for climate induced increases in volatility. The potential future drivers of volatility could stem from narrower physical risks or broader macro-economic, social or other systematic shocks driven by climate change. All three predicted credit loss assessments suggest that volatility not changes to economic trends ultimately drives higher potential credit risks relating to climate change.ContributionsThe key contributions of this paper are the application of empirically based credit factor models combined with higher climate-driven volatility assumptions that support statistical assessment of how climate change could impact credit risk losses.

Green GDP and Economic Openness in India

Aim: The vast range of weather conditions in India's climate system is a result of numerous reasons, including growing agricultural activity, altered land use patterns that increased emissions of methane and nitrous oxide as well as other greenhouse gases, automobile use, and so forth. It is necessary to quantify the significant and under-estimated impact of climate change on the natural system through changes in extreme weather. To account for the economic losses of the environment as a result of climate change, the Green GDP concept was introduced. The objective of the paper is to compute the Green GDP for India and test the effect of economic openness on GDP and Green GDP.
 Methodology: The World Bank Database, the OECD, and Energy Statistics India 2021 are some of the sources from which information was gathered. Growth Rate, Economic Openness Index and the Green GDP estimation methods are employed. To compute the Green GDP indicator for the years 2011 to 20, the GDP measure is subtracted from the costs associated with the utilization of natural resources and environmental degradation.
 Results: According to the outcome, the cost of environmental damage will decline from 11 per cent in 2011 to 9 per cent in 2020. The cost of environmental damage growth rate was -3.07 percent. The Economic Openness Index was 55.62 in the year 2011 and it is gradually declining and attained 36.46 in the year 2020. The lower the index, the lower the impact of trade on domestic activities and the less powerful the economy of that country. The relationship between economic openness and Green GDP per capita shows that less and less economic openness moves the cost of environmental damage to the increasing side.
 Conclusion: The cost of environmental damage increased in the year 2020 compared to 2011 but the growth rate shows negative. The government should take several initiatives to assure data availability and accountability to estimate the environmental damage cost and to frame suitable policy options to improve economic performance overall.

The Influence of Country Size and Population on Country GDP

Gross National Product is the key to reflecting whether a country is strong or not, so many people are very concerned about what conditions GDP is based on. This is also a matter of national concern, so it is possible to know which factors contribute to a country's GDP, and thus the country can judge whether to strengthen these factors. This study focuses on the impact of country size and population on national GDP, so this experiment uses the OLS framework to predict the impact of country size and population on ITS GDP. At the same time, the impact of country size and population on GDP is obtained by recording and calculating. The impact of different factors on GDP is observed by comparison. China adopts the completely random sampling method to select 60 countries from all over the world for investigation and analysis, without personal factors, which can better ensure the accuracy of the results and thus reduce the error. When choosing countries, small countries or countries with small populations are always on the waiting list, ready to be chosen randomly. Through this experiment, we know that population has a more significant effect on the GDP of a country than the size of the country. Of course, this does not mean that the size of the country does not matter. Since the population is a necessary component of our traditional measurement and calculation of GDP, this experiment also proves that the impact of population on GDP is indispensable.

The 60-year downward trend of economic growth in the industrialized countries of the world

This report, using data from a range of authoritative sources, studies the long-term postwar economic growth of the industrialised North and shows that this has fallen continuously, with only brief and limited interruptions, since at least the early 1960s. The trend is extremely strong and includes all major Northern economies without exception. It is confirmed by both Purchasing-Power-Parity (PPP) and a range of standard real GDP measures, by a variety of weightings of the growth rates, and a variety of aggregations of different countries. The Newly-Industrialised Countries (NICS), after early high growth rates, joined the general trend of other industrialised countrieds after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. It is thus an extremely well-confirmed historical trend. Recent data show no evidence of any post-COVID reversal. These results sheds new light on the current difficulties of the world economy and have many implications. They conflict with any idea that Secular Stagnation as it is increasingly referred to even in mainstream literature, originates in some recent upset such as the 2008 crash, or in the incidence of, or problems created by, a putative new régime of accumulation such as neoliberalism or financialisation. In fact, the roots of the present crisis lie in a long historical process which set in very shortly into the ‘Golden Age’ of postwar expansion.

COMO É O IMPACTO DINÂMICO DA SUBVALORIZAÇÃO NO CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO DOS PAÍSES LATINO-AMERICANOS? UMA ANÁLISE VAR DE PAINEL

ABSTRACT This study analyzes the dynamic effects of undervaluation on the economic growth per capita of Latin American countries from 1980 to 2018. To estimate these effects, a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model was used with the System GMM as its estimator. The undervaluation variable is created from different measures of real exchange rates. In addition, various measures of GDP per capita were used to calculate economic growth per capita. Macroeconomic and human capital variables were included to control for the different undervaluation spread channels on economic growth per capita. Results show a positive effect depending on the definition of the real exchange rate used to calculate the undervaluation. Results also include the Granger causality test, a stability test, and impulse response graphs that project the response of per capita economic growth to an undervaluation shock.

Was the response to COVID-19 in the West disappointing in terms of comparative outcomes achieved?

This paper features an analysis of country level data generated by the COVID-19 pandemic as revealed in data related to deaths, populations, infections, recovered cases, and tests, for a global sample of 208 countries, plus measures of their policy responsiveness and relative preparedness. A subsample of the 39 OECD countries is also analysed in an assessment including measures of GDP per capita, and indices of country specific trust levels, The cumulative data set is taken from the Worldometer data source. The GHS Index and Oxford Stringency Index are used as policy benchmarks. Other indicators used include GDP/capita, Trust and Personal Trust Indices from the OECD. The results suggest that the advanced economies in the West have not managed the COVID-19 pandemic particularly well and there is no evidence of reduced death rates in these countries when compared to the average performance. On a relative global comparison, the poorer nations, and those in Africa particularly, appear to have performed relatively well, subject to the obvious caveat about the accuracy of the data used in this study. The Oxford Stringency Index does not appear to be informative and countries with a higher GHS Index rating performed relatively poorly. There is a perverse positive relationship between the GHS rating and the number of deaths and cases. This pattern is repeated in the smaller sample of 38 OECD countries. There is no evidence that higher levels of trust or country wealth led to improved outcomes except in the case of case fatality rates (CFR) which are just under 2 percent for OECD countries as opposed to 3.8 percent for the total sample.

The impact of EU structural funds related to innovation in socio-economic development at a local level

Purpose: The aim of the paper is to verify the process of β-convergence at a local level in Poland within 2007-2016, taking the impact of spatial effects and obtained EU funds related to innovation on economic growth into account. Design/methodology/approach: Spatial econometric methods were used in the research procedure. The modelling uses the economic aggregate, which is an alternative to the GDP measure of development. In addition, the traditional convergence equations were modified by adding variables defining spatial interactions to the specifications of the estimated models that may affect the rate of economic growth. The study covers data from all counties (NTS4) in 2oland. Findings: The estimated econometric models showed that between 2007-2016, there was a slow process of reducing economic inequalities between counties in Poland. The convergence process was conditioned by the amount of European funds obtained for innovation. The funds acquired in a given county stimulated the economic growth of this unit while, at the same time, having negative impact on the development dynamics of neighbouring units. Originality/value: The added value of this elaboration is the inclusion of spatial effects affecting economic growth in the conducted analyses of conditional convergence. The presented study is one of a few in which the spatial impact was verified by including weights in the modelling of the matrix based on proximity, distance, flows and affiliation, carried out using data relating to all NTS4 units of a given European Union country. Keywords: β-convergence, European funds, innovation, spatial effects, spatial regression models. Category of the paper: research paper.

What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China

Spillovers from China to global financial markets have been found to be small owing to China's limited integration in the global financial system. In this paper, however, we provide evidence that China constitutes an important driver of the global financial cycle. We argue that because of China's importance for global consumption, stronger Chinese growth raises global growth prospects, inducing an increase in global risk sentiment and an expansion in global asset prices and global credit. Two contributions are key to this finding: (1) We construct a measure of China's credit impulse to identify Chinese policy-induced demand shocks. Our approach takes advantage of the fact that a primary tool of China's stabilization policy-encompassing monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policies-is controlling the amount of credit in the economy. Without China's credit impulse, it is difficult to discern global financial spillovers; (2) We estimate an alternative measure of Chinese GDP growth that captures its business cycle given data concerns about the smoothness of official GDP data. Without China's alternative GDP measure, it is difficult to attribute any global cycle movements to economic developments in China.

An Evaluation of the Impact of Zakah and Islamic Financial Instruments on Economic Growth

This study analyzes the effect of Islamic economic instruments, such as zakat, SBSN, and Islamic Venture Capital (MVS), on Indonesia's economic growth. GDP measures economic growth, while the zakat variable is proxied by the distribution carried out by BAZNAS. Furthermore, MVS and SBSN are measured by total sharia business financing, and total ownership of State Sukuk issued during the study period. This study uses multiple linear models to analyze the impact of Islamic venture capital, ZIS, and SBSN regression from 2011 – 2020. The multiple regression tests were used to partially or simultaneously determine the effect of ZIS funds delivery, Sukuk (SBSN), and Islamic venture capital financing on Indonesia's economic growth. The results showed that the distribution of ZIS partially significantly affects economic growth. The SBSN and Venture Capital variables also have a significant and positive effect. Simultaneously, ZIS distribution and Sharia financing, namely SBSN and Islamic Venture Capital, significantly affected economic growth. This result implies that an increase in Islamic capital financing, SBSN, and distribution of ZIS funds can positively encourage Indonesia's economic growth.