GDP Figures Research Articles

How does regional GDP manipulation affect livelihood investment?

People’s livelihood serves as the primary impetus driving all social activities. Faced with intense regional competition and stringent assessment, regional governments often resort to manipulating GDP figures. This study investigates the repercussions of such economic distortion on residents’ welfare. Our findings reveal a significant negative relationship between regional GDP manipulation and investment in livelihood improvements. This correlation is particularly pronounced during the initial phase of officials’ tenure and diminishes when officials serve in their hometowns. Moreover, we observe that the reduction in livelihood investment is exacerbated during periods of economic downturn. These conclusions contribute to the existing literature on regional GDP manipulation and livelihood investment, shedding light on the potential implications for residents’ welfare.

Dynamics of Economic Growth and Its Influence on Community Welfare: Case Analysis in Developing Countries

This journal article explores the dynamics of economic growth and its impact on community welfare, with a specific focus on developing countries. Economic growth is a pivotal factor in shaping the well-being of communities, and understanding the intricate relationship between growth patterns and welfare outcomes is essential for informed policymaking. The study employs a case analysis approach to delve into the unique challenges and opportunities faced by developing countries. By examining the dynamics of economic growth, the research aims to uncover the mechanisms through which growth translates into tangible improvements in community welfare indicators. The analysis encompasses a range of economic factors, including GDP growth, employment rates, income distribution, and access to basic services. Special attention is given to the role of social and economic policies in mediating the effects of growth on community welfare. Through an in-depth examination of selected developing countries, the study seeks to identify patterns and best practices that contribute to positive welfare outcomes. It also explores potential challenges and disparities that may hinder the equitable distribution of benefits from economic growth. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for policymakers, economists, and development practitioners. By elucidating the dynamics between economic growth and community welfare in the context of developing countries, the study contributes to the ongoing discourse on sustainable and inclusive development strategies. In conclusion, this article underscores the importance of considering the multifaceted nature of economic growth and its implications for community welfare. The research advocates for a holistic approach to development that goes beyond GDP figures, emphasizing the need for policies that foster inclusive growth and ensure that the benefits of economic progress reach all segments of society.

Assessing the Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Welfare in Ghana

This study employs the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach to investigate the relationship between Real GDP, which serves as an estimator of a nation’s economic performance, and selected macroeconomic variables. Using data from the World Bank Development Indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2022, our analysis reveals distinct patterns in the interplay between inflation, labour productivity, public consumption expenditure, and real GDP. The results highlight the negative impact of inflation on economic well-being. Conversely, a positive correlation emerges between real GDP and both labour productivity and public consumption expenditure. These findings contribute nuanced insights to the ongoing discourse on the appropriateness of Real GDP. The observed negative influence of inflation on Real GDP underscores the importance of vigilant inflation management for sustained economic stability. On the other hand, the positive association between real GDP and labour productivity, as well as public consumption expenditure, implies potential avenues for fostering economic growth and prosperity. These findings not only enhance our understanding of the dynamic interactions within economic systems, but also challenge conventional perspectives on real GDP as an indicator of economic health. These insights provide valuable considerations for crafting effective policies that go beyond GDP figures to ensure holistic and sustainable national economic well-being.

An Empirical Research on The Factors Affecting Profitability in Air Transportation

This study aims to analyse the impact of traditional airline companies' internal and external environmental factors on profitability. In total, 17 airlines operating in different regions were included in the study. Passenger load factor, cargo ton-km and the number of destinations were chosen as internal factors affecting the profitability of airlines. GDP, oil prices and exchange rate figures were external environmental factors affecting profitability. Panel ARDL analysis method was used in the study. In the model of the study, all variables were analysed together without division. All selected variables have been observed to affect airline profitability, and the effect of external environmental factors on profitability is more significant.

THE FUTURE OF EXPORT-BASED GROWTH POLICIES IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY: AN ECONOMETRIC SIMULATION APPROACH

In this study, the long- and short-term relationship between exports and economic growth in the Turkish economy, using the ARDL bounds test approach with annual data sets for the period 1987-2021, was examined, and the per capita GDP figures of Turkiye for the period 2022-2032 were estimated by econometric simulation method. In the ARDL model estimation results, it was seen that effect of exports were positive and statistically significant on economic growth in the short and long term. According to the foresight analysis, it has been determined that the per capita GDP in 2032 will be $20990 in the base export scenario, $17327 in the low-export scenario, and nearly double to $25157 in the high-export scenario. These results show that it is possible for the GDP per capita to nearly double in the next ten years in the Turkish economy. Still, policy components are needed to increase exports by an average of 13.86% annually to reach these figures.

Jobs and fiction: identifying the effect of corporate tax avoidance inflating export measures in Ireland

ABSTRACT Ireland’s emergence as a European hub for ICT and pharmaceutical multinationals highlights the growing tension between spatially dispersed economic activity and the nation-centered measures used to monitor it. While ‘big tech’ and ‘big pharma’ are often praised as powerful growth engines, their real contribution to the Irish economy remains unclear, as corporate tax avoidance artificially inflates statistics. By moving around intellectual property assets or engaging in factoryless manufacturing, firms go out of their way to book their profits in low-tax jurisdictions. Their products show up in Irish GDP and export figures, often without employing any Irish labour or capital in the production process. This article uses a novel empirical approach to distinguish job-sustaining economic activity from accounting fiction. By contrasting traditional measures of economic growth on a sectoral level with the growth of employment and earnings, it identifies sectors with sudden discrepancies that are indicative signs of fictitious activity. Discrepancies cluster in the industries dominated by US-based multinationals.

An Analysis of Fertiliser Subsidies in India

This article examines total fertiliser use in India as well as the distribution of fertiliser subsidies granted by the Indian government to its farmers. The paper primarily studies the consumption of fertilisers (NPK) from 1950-51 to 2020-21. However, the information related to the distribution of fertiliser subsidies covers the period from 1980–1981 to 2021–2022. The author further went on to analyze the fertilizer subsidy distribution concerning the agricultural GDP and the overall GDP figures of the nation to get an idea of the effectiveness of investment on the fertilizer subsidies in India.

Sukuk ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Amaç: Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de katılım bankaları tarafından ihraç edilen sukuklar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesidir. 
 
 Yöntem: Bu çalışmada yöntem olarak Engle-Granger eş-bütünleşme ve Grenger nedensellik yaklaşımlarından faydalanılmıştır. Türkiye’deki tüm katılım bankalarının ihraç etmiş olduğu sukuk ve reel GSYH rakamları 2013Q4-2021Q3 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. 
 
 Bulgular: Yapılan Engle-Granger eş-bütünleşme testinin sonucunda sukuk ihracı ile reel GSYH arasında uzun dönemli istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir eş- bütünleşme ilişkisi bulunamamıştır. Bununla beraber Grenger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre reel GSYH’dan sukuk ihraçlarına doğru tek yönlü Grenger nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. 
 
 Sonuç: Bu çalışmanın sonucuna göre Türkiye’de katılım bankaları tarafından piyasaya sunulan sukuklar ile ekonomik büyüme arasında eş-bütünleşme ilişkisi yoktur. Diğer bir deyişle değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir denge ilişkisinin bulunmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca ekonomik büyümeden sukuk ihracına doğru tespit edilen tek yönlü Grenger nedensellik ilişkisi katılım bankalarının sukuk enstrümanı ile ekonomik büyümeye katkı sunamadıklarını aksine ekonomik büyümeden istifade ettiklerini göstermektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları beklenen sonuçların tersi yöndedir. 
 
 Özgünlük: Çalışmanın özgünlüğü, değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye bağlamında Engle-Grenger Eşbütünleşme ve Grenger nedensellik yaklaşımını kullanarak inceleyen ilk çalışma olmasıdır.

Analysis of Factors Affecting Income Inequality in Indonesia From 2016 - 2021

The purpose of this research is to look at the impact of human resources, minimum salaries, infrastructure, and investment on income disparity in Indonesia from 2010 to 2022. This study employs quantitative descriptive analysis with secondary data spanning the years 2010 to 2022. Data from the CSA and the Ministry of Finance are used in this analysis. Secondary data comprises economic data, particularly GDP figures, as well as scientific papers, books, and journals. Because of its quantitative nature, structural equation modeling (SEM) is applied (combining time series and cross section). This study's model has gone through construction selection and testing to become an estimating model. SEM can be used to determine the relationship between human resources, minimum wages, infrastructure, and investment, and employment, economic growth, and income. The findings indicate that all variables have a negative and significant effect on income inequality. This suggests that improving human resources, the minimum wage, infrastructure, and investment will be followed by a reduction in income inequality in Indonesia.

Modelling and Analyzing Turkish Business Cycles through Markov-Switching Models

This study uses the different versions of the Markov-Switching methodology for modeling business cycles in Turkey and determining their turning points through quarterly real GDP figures for the 1987-2021 period. Based on the results obtained from the models, the recovery periods in Turkey last approximately 8.5 quarters and exhibit long and permanent nature while contraction periods are short, variable, and temporary, lasting around 4 quarters on average. The estimated Markov-Switching models mostly produce the same turning points. The compatibility of the obtained results with the national and international developments experienced during the analyzing period indicates the consistency of the developed models. On the other hand, the results reveal the importance of consistent and credible monetary and fiscal policies in smoothing business cycles.

EUROPEAN UNION AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: AN ECONOMETRIC INVESTIGATION ON THE PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GDP’S GROWTH RATE TREND

The recent war between Ukraine and Russia is yet another instance that emphasizes that economic overdependence may destroy the economic fabric of a nation. Taking this premise into consideration, this study aims to examine the long-term and short-term connection between the European Union and the United States GDP growth rates using tools like linear regression, Granger causality test, and impulse response function. Quarterly GDP figures of the European Union and the United States were taken for the period spanning 22 years, starting from quarter 2 of the financial year 1998-1999 to quarter 4 of the financial year 2018-2019. The Regression model and the Granger Causality test prove that the United States’ GDP growth rate is influenced by that of the European Union in the short-run as well as in the long-run, but the EU’s GDP is independent and does not follow the former. The possible explanation can be the trade surplus of the European Union over the United States in the recent past. Hence, the authors are of the opinion that a much more balanced trade between these two powerful economies would ensure the stabilization of the global trade and stability of the global power equation.

GDP manipulation, political incentives, and earnings management

Political decisions often affect macroeconomic activity, which triggers effects on corporate decisions. Using satellite night light data to proxy for economic activity, we show that manipulation of GDP figures is associated with earnings management by local companies, especially when local politicians face more promotion pressure. We show that local politicians seeking career advancement exchange favors with local companies and pressure them to inflate earnings to increase local GDP numbers. Our findings illustrate how the macro-level political agenda and GDP manipulation can affect micro-level corporate earnings management.

Regional GDP Distortion and Analyst Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from China

The reliability of China’s GDP data has been questioned for a long time. Prior studies have discussed the causes of GDP distortion in China, but the evidence on the economic consequences is scant. This paper examines the economic consequences of regional GDP distortion from the perspective of analyst forecasts. We find that regional GDP distortion leads to lower analyst forecast accuracy, and this result is robust to potential endogeneity. Further investigations show that analysts with information advantages have the ability to resist the distorted GDP data and issue accurate forecasts. Political pressure is another factor leading to inaccurate analyst forecasts. Our paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the importance of the reliability of GDP figures as a determinant of analyst forecast accuracy.

Reprint: Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data

We use Chinese imports, measured as reported exports of trading partners, as a benchmark to gauge the accuracy of alternative Chinese indicators (including GDP) of fluctuations in economic activity. Externally-reported imports are likely to be relatively well-measured and free from domestic manipulation. Using principal components, we derive activity indices from a wide range of indicators. We choose a preferred index of eight non-GDP indicators based on their fit to Chinese imports, which we call the China Cyclical Activity Tracker (or C-CAT). We find that Chinese statistics have broadly become more reliable in measuring cyclical fluctuations over time. However, measured GDP has been excessively smooth since 2013, and adds little information relative to combinations of other indicators.

How does GVC reconstruction affect economic growth and employment? Analysis of USA–China decoupling

The state of USA–China relations has become increasingly strained. The term ‘decoupling’ has been frequently used within the narrative of USA–China relations to describe the possible outcome of the relationship. A ‘decoupling’ of the USA and Chinese economies would trigger the restructuring of existing Global Value Chains (GVCs). Given this possibility, we use the 2014 World Input–Output Database (WIOD) and the hypothesis extraction method to simulate several scenarios of GVC reconstruction on economic growth and employment. From the analysis, we find that: (1) GVC reconstructions caused by USA–China decoupling would have a greater impact on China than on the USA. If USA–China bilateral trade is replaced by the surrounding economies, China's GDP and employment would fall by 2.57% and 2.34%, respectively. (2) The effects on regional economies are synergistic, with the countries directly surrounding China and the USA being more affected than India and most European countries. (3) USA manufacturing may benefit from the manufacturing repatriation policy, but the overall impact on economic growth would be limited. (4) In all reconstruction scenarios, global GDP figures are lower than they are today, demonstrating the importance of maintaining existing GVCs.

Regional Business Confidence as Early Indicator of Regional Economic Growth

Official sub-national GDP figures in South Africa are usually published with long delays or not at all, i.e. relevant, reliable, and real-time economic data on a provincial and local (municipal) level are often non-existent, causing a significant data asymmetry at the sub-national level. The search for an ‘optimal’ sub-national proxy for regional economic growth focuses on the possible use of regional business confidence. This article, therefore, investigates the use of regional business confidence indices (RBCI) as an early indicator or proxy of the regional economic growth rate (RGDP). To this end, the study employed panel cointegration methodology and techniques to interrogate the possible association between regional business confidence and regional economic growth, focusing on three specific regions of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The results suggest that the utilisation of regional business confidence indicators indeed has merit. Constraints experienced in the study indicate the direction that further studies may follow, especially concerning the scope of the period and cross-sections. The research, therefore, addresses a fundamental gap in the data asymmetry in South Africa, while also setting a benchmark for other researchers to follow.

Comment on “Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data”

Comment on “Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data”

Price and income elasticities for alcohol in Sri Lanka

Aims: To study the effect of changes in income as well as prices of beer and arrack, on alcohol sales in Sri Lanka during the period 1981–2017.
 Design: The analyses were conducted by means of ARIMA time series analysis for arrack and beer separately.
 Measures: Yearly data on the sales of beer and arrack in the entire country were used. National GDP figures were used as a proxy measure of income, and yearly price data for arrack and beer were from Colombo, the largest metropolitan area in the country.
 Results: No short-term effects of changes in price or income were found on sales. However, changes in the price of beer were significant, with a lag structure, which implies a delayed effect of price changes on the sales of beer. A significant cross-price effect of changes in the price of beer on arrack sales was found as well.
 Conclusions: Sales of alcohol in Sri Lanka are not affected by price changes to the same extent as in high income countries. Most likely, the explanations will be found in the different drinking cultures between Sri Lanka and these countries.

Impact of COVID-19 on GDP of major economies: Application of the artificial neural network forecaster

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused global health impacts, and governments have restricted movements to a certain extent. Such restrictions have led to disruptions in economic activities. In this paper, the GDP figures for the April–June quarter of 2020 for eight countries, namely, the United States, Mexico, Germany, Italy, Spain, France, India, and Japan, are forecasted. Considering that artificial neural network models have higher forecasting accuracy than statistical methods, a multilayer artificial neural network model is developed in this paper. This model splits the dataset into two parts: the first with 80% of the observations and the second with 20%. The model then uses the first part to optimize the forecasting accuracy and then applies the optimized parameters to the second part of the dataset to assess the model performance. A forecasting error of less than 2% is achieved by the model during the testing procedure. The forecasted GDP figures show that the April–June quarter of the current year experienced sharp declines in GDP for all countries. Moreover, the annualized GDP growth is expected to reach double-digit negative growth rates. Such alarming prospects require urgent rescue actions by governments.

Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data

We use Chinese imports, measured as reported exports of trading partners, as a benchmark to gauge the accuracy of alternative Chinese indicators (including GDP) of fluctuations in economic activity. Externally-reported imports are likely to be relatively well-measured and free from domestic manipulation. Using principal components, we derive activity indices from a wide range of indicators. We choose a preferred index of eight non-GDP indicators based on their fit to Chinese imports, which we call the China Cyclical Activity Tracker (or C-CAT). We find that Chinese statistics have broadly become more reliable in measuring cyclical fluctuations over time. However, measured GDP has been excessively smooth since 2013, and adds little information relative to combinations of other indicators.