Global Burden Of Disease Study Research Articles

Global burden of dementia in younger people: an analysis of data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

Dementia among younger people is rapidly emerging as a global health concern; however, comprehensive research on its shifting burden trends remains insufficient. Data on the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with dementia occurring in individuals <70 years were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated to assess trends in age-specific rates (ASRs), including age-specific prevalence rates (ASPRs), age-specific incidence rates (ASIRs), age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs), and age-specific DALY rates (ASDRs) while young-onset dementia (YOD) burden trends were analyzed. The correlation between ASR/AAPC and the sociodemographic index (SDI) was evaluated. In 2021, the global prevalence of dementia in individuals <70 years increased by 122.33%, with a 128% increase in new cases since 1990. Concurrently, deaths and DALYs of individuals <70 years with dementia rose by 119.28% and 119.77%, respectively. The AAPCs of YOD ASRs during 1990-2021 initially increased and then decreased with increasing SDI levels, with the highest AAPCs of ASPR (2.20 [95%CI: 2.08-2.32] per 100,000), ASIR (2.25 [95%CI: 2.06-2.45] per 100,000), ASMR (2.04 [95%CI: 1.93-2.15] per 100,000), and ASDR (2.06 [95%CI: 1.99-2.13] per 100,000) observed in middle-SDI levels. Additionally, females <70 years bore a higher burden of dementia globally, and gender differences are still widening. The growth rate of YOD is accelerating, particularly in the middle to high SDI region with females bearing a disproportionately higher burden of YOD. This work was supported by grants from the National High level Hospital Clinical Research Funding, CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

The global, regional, and national patterns of change in the burden of congenital birth defects, 1990–2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021 and forecast to 2040

Congenital birth defects (CBDs) present enormous challenges to global healthcare systems. These conditions severely impact patients' health and underscore issues related to socioeconomic development and healthcare accessibility and efficiency. Previous studies have been geographically limited and lacked comprehensive global analysis. This study provides global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data for four major congenital birth defects-congenital heart defects (CHD), neural tube defects (NTDs), digestive congenital anomalies (DCAs), and Down syndrome (DS) from 1990 to 2021, emphasizing health inequalities. The goal is to offer scientific evidence for optimizing resource allocation, focusing on high-burden populations, and reducing disease burden. This study systematically evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of CBDs and their changes from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. To conduct a more focused analysis, four specific CBDs were selected: CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS. DALYs were used as the metric, combined with the sociodemographic index (SDI). Analyses included the slope index of inequality and concentration index to measure health inequalities, frontier analysis to estimate achievable outcomes based on development levels, decomposition analysis to identify drivers of disease burden changes, Joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal trends, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict future disease burden trends. Compared to 1990, the global burden of the CBDs in 2021 showed a downward trend. Males had a higher burden than females, with the highest burden observed in low-SDI regions. When examining CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS specifically, trends in burden changes varied across different CBDs at the global, regional, and national levels. Frontier analysis revealed potential for burden improvement in various countries and territories. Decomposition analysis highlighted differences in disease burden drivers across SDI regions, showing the greatest improvement observed in low-SDI regions. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a downward trend in DALYs burden across SDI regions, and BAPC model predictions suggested that the burden of CBDs will continue to decline in the future. CBDs pose a major challenge to global public health. Despite an overall decline in disease burden, health inequalities remain prominent, particularly in countries and territories with lower levels of development. Future public health interventions should focus on countries and territories with low levels of development by optimizing healthcare resource allocation, improving basic health infrastructure, enhancing health education, and reducing disease burden inequalities. Global collaboration and data sharing are essential to promote a lifecycle management model for CBDs research and treatment, advancing global health development. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82270310) and the Jiangsu Provincial Key Research and Development Program (No. BE2023662).

The global burden of enteric fever, 2017–2021: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021

Enteric fever is a major public health challenge in developing countries. We conducted a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases 2021 Study to provide updated estimates of enteric fever's burden. We presented estimates for incident cases and deaths, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs), and case-fatality rates spanning the study period of 2017-2021, stratified by region, country, socio-demographic index (SDI), and age group. Random-effects Poisson regression for longitudinal data was used to estimate the association between SDI and case-fatality rates, adjusting for antimicrobial resistance patterns. In 2021, there were 9.3 million global cases of enteric fever (95% uncertainty interval: 7.3-11.9) and 107.5 thousand deaths (56.1-180.8). The age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 152/100,000 person-years (118-195) in 2017 to 128/100,000 person-years (100-163) in 2021, and the mortality rate decreased from 1.87/100,000 person-years (0.95-3.18) to 1.50/100,000 person-years (0.78-2.54). There were wide geographical differences, with South Asia contributing the most cases and deaths. Age-standardized incidence exceeded the threshold for "high burden" of enteric fever (100/100,000 person-years) in 23 countries in2021.Children under five accounted for 40% of deaths and 47% of YLLs, with incidence and mortality peaking during the second year. Case-fatality was highest in low SDI countries and showed a global trend toward reduction, except among children aged 1-4 years. After adjusting for the prevalence of multidrug resistance, fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility, and third-generation cephalosporin resistance, a higher SDI was associated with a lower case-fatality rate, with a 1.1% (0.7-1.7) reduction for each percentage point increase in SDI. Despite notable improvements, several countries still showed a high burden of enteric fever, which remains a significant global health concern, especially among children under five. Although enhancing water and sanitation systems is crucial, the most significant reductions in the global disease burden are likely to be achieved through broader vaccine coverage. This includes the use of typhoid conjugate vaccines, which are effective in infants and young children and offer extended protection, along with improved data collection and surveillance to guide vaccine distribution efforts across high-incidence areas. This work was partially supported by "Ricerca Corrente" funding from Italian Ministry of Health to IRCCSHumanitas Research Hospital.

Burden of Ischemic Heart Diseases among US States from 1990-2019.

Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) is a leading cause of global mortality, including in the United States. Understanding the burden of IHD in the United States is crucial for informed decision-making and targeted interventions aimed at reducing morbidity and mortality associated with this leading cause of death. This study aimed to understand the burden of IHD, identify gender disparities and risk factors, explore the relationship between socioeconomic growth and IHD, and analyze risk factor distribution across the states of the United States. This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, which provided comprehensive information on IHD from 1990 to 2019. Data related to IHD from these years were extracted using a query tool from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) website. The study assessed the relationship between IHD and socioeconomic development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and measured the overall impact of IHD using Disability-adjusted Life Years (DALYs), considering premature death and disability. Additionally, the study analyzed the burden of IHD attributed to six main risk factors. Data analysis involved comparing prevalence, mortality, SDI, DALYs, attributable burden, and risk estimation among the states. Between 1990 and 2019, there was an improvement in socioeconomic development in all states. Age-standardized rates of disease burden for IHD decreased by 50% [ASDR 3278.3 to 1629.4 (95% UI: 1539.9-1712.3) per 100,000] with the most significant decline observed in Minnesota. Males had higher burden rates than females in all states, and the southeast region had the highest mortality rates. The prevalence of IHD showed a declining trend, with approximately 8.9 million cases (95% UI: 8.0 million to 9.8 million) in 2019, representing a 37.1% decrease in the Age-standardized Prevalence Rate (ASPR) from 1990. Metabolic risks were the leading contributors to the disease burden, accounting for 50% of cases, with Mississippi having the highest attributable risk. Arkansas had the highest attributable risk for high cholesterol and smoking. Conversely, Minnesota had the lowest burden of IHD among all the states. This study highlights variations in the burden of IHD across US states and emphasizes the need for tailored prevention programs to address specific risk factors and gender differences. Understanding the trend in IHD may inform policymakers and healthcare professionals in effectively allocating resources to reduce the burden of IHD and improve national health outcomes.

Antibacterial potential of queen pineapple (Ananas comosus (L.) Merr Var. Queen) peel extract on the growth of Lactobacillus acidophilus bacteria

Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2017, the prevalence of caries in each country reached 20% to more than 50%. Caries is formed due to the role of several factors including host, agent (microorganisms), substrate, and time. Bacteria involved in the origin of caries formation such as Lactobacillus group bacteria found in the oral cavity which can cause dental caries, one of which is Lactobacillus acidophilus. The use of natural cleansers is highly recommended to remove residual bacteria as an effort to prevent caries. Queen Pineapple (Ananas comosus (L.) Merr Var. Queen) is a fruit that contains very complex compounds that can act as anticarcinogenic and antibacterial. This study aims to determine the Minimum Bactericidal Concentration (MBC) and Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) against the growth of Lactobacillus acidophilus bacteria. This type of research was a laboratory experimental type with posttest only control group design. This study used the dilution method of the number of samples, namely concentrations of 0.781%, 1.56%, 3.125%, 6.25%, 12.5%, 25%, 50%, 100%, positive controls and negative controls. This study was conducted 3 times repetition. Manual calculation of the number of bacterial colonies that grow on nutrient agar media and expressed in colony forming units (CFU) which will determine the MBC and MIC. The Shapiro-Wilk test showed a p value&gt; 0.05 at all concentrations and normally distributed data, but when tested for homogeneity the data was not homogeneous so that the non-parametric statistical test continued using the Kruskal Wallis test showing a value of p &lt; 0.05. Conclusion: Colony count results showed that the concentration of 3.12% can inhibit the visible growth of Lactobacillus acidophilus bacteria which is stated as the Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) and can prevent growth after subculture to antibiotic-free medium at a concentration of 6.25% which is stated as the Minimum Bactericidal Concentration (MBC).

The Cardiovascular Disease Burden Associated with secondhand smoke, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

Abstract Background Over the past three decades, global regions have shown significant differences in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and secondhand smoke is a major risk factor contributing to this burden. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the global trends and associations between second-hand smoke and cardiovascular disease is lacking. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 1990-2019, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was conducted to investigate trends in cardiovascular disease-related mortality in populations affected by secondhand smoke globally over the past 30 years and its association with age, period, and birth cohort. Results Over the past 30 years, the number of cardiovascular deaths caused by secondhand smoke has increased significantly worldwide, from 432.6 thousand in 1990 (95% UI: 357.4-508.3) to 598.5 thousand in 2019 (95% UI: 489.7-713.5), an increase of 38.4% (95% UI: 26.8%-49.5%). In 2019, cardiovascular disease accounted for 45.9% of all deaths attributable to secondhand smoke in both men and women globally. Among cardiovascular diseases, ischemic heart disease became the main component, accounting for 66.4% compared with stroke. The gender composition of cardiovascular deaths due to secondhand smoke is slightly lower in men (46.5%) than in women (53.5%). Longitudinal analyses using age-time-cohort models show that global CVD-related mortality from secondhand smoke has improved overall over the past three decades, but there are differences between regions, genders, and CVD subtypes. It is worth noting that the higher the socio-demographic index (SDI) level, the greater the reduction in mortality, with a staggering 39.1% reduction in high SDI areas (95% UI: 35.6%-42.3%), in sharp contrast to virtually no change in mortality in low SDI areas (0.1% (95% UI: -52.4%-62.2%)). During the period 2003-2007, cardiovascular disease-related mortality decreased significantly, with an average annual percentage change of -1.48%. Conclusion The study highlights the importance of using secondhand smoke as a modifiable risk factor for the global burden of cardiovascular disease. Further research is vital to understand the factors that lead to differences in countries and regions at different levels of development, gender differences and differences in cardiovascular disease subtypes.

Alcohol policy and alcohol-attributed disease burden in Finland and the Baltic countries 1995-2019

Abstract Introduction Alcohol remains a significant contributor to mortality and morbidity in Finland and the Baltic countries, particularly among men. This study aimed to assess alcohol policy restrictiveness in this region from 1995 to 2019 using a modified version of the Bridging the Gap (BtG-M) policy scale and examine its association with alcohol-related disease burden. Methods The study utilised national statutory laws to score policy restrictiveness (higher BtG-M scores mean stricter policies) and age-standardised rates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and deaths per 100,000 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Spearman correlation tests and panel data regression models were applied to assess the association between policy scores and burden of disease. Results Finland maintained a high BtG-M score, while the Baltic countries experienced recent increases from initially lower scores. Alcohol-related disease burden showed an inverse association with policy changes in these countries. Strongest association was seen between the BtG-M score and DALY rates attributed to injuries. Premature mortality among men constituted the largest proportion of disease burden. Discussion and Conclusions Despite challenges in accessing and comparing policy data over time, we showed a strong association between alcohol policy and alcohol-related harm in Finland and the Baltic countries. This study is one of the first to use the BtG-M scale to monitor changes in alcohol policies over time and their relationship to alcohol-related harm using GBD methodology. The study highlights the effects of national alcohol policies on levels of alcohol-related harm. Key messages • This study stands out due to its longitudinal study design, which quantitatively compares the level of alcohol policy restrictiveness in Finland and the Baltic countries from 1995 to 2019. • Our study suggests that shifts towards more restrictive alcohol policies are linked to reduction in alcohol-related harm in Finland and the Baltic countries.

The burden of psoriasis in Belgium, 2021

Abstract Psoriasis is a common, chronic, inflammatory skin disease with a great impact on healthcare systems. Given the limitations of the currently available burden estimates, estimates of the Belgian national burden of disease study are necessary in order to guide decision-making processes within the health sector. According to the Global Psoriasis Atlas, the prevalence of psoriasis is rising globally. The current study aims to estimate the burden of psoriasis in Belgium using national data. As there is no single comprehensive data source on prevalence of psoriasis in Belgium, a critical appraisal of existing local and national data sources was conducted. We estimated the non-fatal psoriasis burden in terms of years lived with disability (YLD). Estimated prevalence data were combined with disability weights to yield YLDs imposed by psoriasis. Mortality attributable to psoriasis was assumed to be zero, in line with the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019. We assessed three data sources containing information on existing cases with psoriasis in Belgium. Based on qualitative and quantitative appraisal, a widespread network of general practitioners was identified as the best available national data source. In 2021, the prevalence of psoriasis in Belgium was 2.1%, leading to 13084 DALYs (113 DALYs per 100 000). The burden of psoriasis was in line with national disease burden estimates for bipolar disorder, multiple myeloma, and hearing loss. Our prevalence, YLD, and DALY estimates for psoriasis in Belgium were however lower than those of the GBD study. Psoriasis imposes a non-negligible burden on population health in Belgium, despite it not being a cause of death. Along progression in psoriasis management, objective evaluation of psoriasis burden is critical to track the trends at the population level. Key messages • Psoriasis is a common skin disease with a relatively high morbidity burden. • Information on psoriasis prevalence and burden are crucial for disease management and appropriate health-care planning.

Developing survey instruments for low back and neck pain to improve disease severity estimates for burden of disease assessment

Abstract Two people living with the same disease can have very different experiences; one has little consequence, whilst the other struggles with much more debilitating consequences that impacts how they live their lives day-to-day. A growing body of research highlights the need for better estimates of disease severity to facilitate better estimation of the non-fatal burden of disease (BOD). Routine data does not always offer solutions because it’s often not coded at a granular enough level to map to individual health states. Data offering solutions are scarce and therefore not available across time or space. Most commentators have quantified the problem of assuming the same proportional severity splits to fill data gaps; a problem common to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and independent BOD studies. However, whilst the need for highlighting the problems associated with this assumption remains, there are other positive steps that can be taken to overcome it. We propose how reproducible approaches can be developed, and present how they can be used to develop disease severity estimates. This involves developing a survey instrument to estimate the overall and health state prevalence of back pain and neck pain, basing health state definitions from the GBD non-fatal disease models, where the classification of cases by severity is based on the combination of respondent’s answers. Furthermore, we discuss how self-assessed severity estimates allow for internal validity checks, but also more widely offer opportunities to appraise the appropriateness of GBD non-fatal disease models. The development, and publication, of survey instruments can assist both independent studies and the GBD study to improve estimates of disease severity, as well as retaining important opportunities for cross-country comparability. Understanding the spectrum of severity is important for understanding how disease impacts populations and can inform healthcare provision and expenditure strategies.

Agenda 2030 for sustainable development in Portuguese Speaking Countries, indicators inequalities

Abstract Background Achieving the SDG Sustainable Development goals represents a major global challenge. The Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP) is made up of countries: Angola, Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique, São Tomé and Príncipe, Brazil, Portugal, and East Timor. Studies on SDG indicators are little studied among these countries. The study analyzes SDG health indicators in the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP) and their projections for 2030, and investigates the correlation between the countries’ level of development and the performance of these indicators. Methods Ecological epidemiological study. Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study between 1990 and 2021 were analyzed, referring to fifteen indicators: universal health coverage, sanitation, smoking, maternal and child health, vaccination coverage and communicable diseases. The GBD study generated projections by calculating the annual change since 1990 for each country and year and then calculating the weighted annualized rate of change. The correlation between the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and the SDG indicators was investigated using the Spearman test, at a significance level of 5%. Results The best performances of the analyzed indicators were seen for Portugal, followed by Brazil, Cape Verde and São Tomé and Príncipe. In other countries, high rates of infectious diseases, maternal and childhood mortality, malnutrition, low vaccination coverage and sanitation were observed. There was a negative correlation between the SDI and the indicators of childhood mortality rate (R=-0.82; p &amp;lt; 0.05), malnutrition (R=-0.7; p &amp;lt; 0.05), incidence of tuberculosis (R =-0.73; p &amp;lt; 0.05) and positive between SDI and sewage coverage (R=-0.83; p &amp;lt; 0.05). Conclusions The CPLP presents internal differences regarding the health indicators analyzed, making it essential to advance cooperation between countries to achieve the SDG targets in 2030. Key messages • There are great inequalities between SDG indicators in Portuguese-speaking countries. • It is important to advance technical cooperation between countries to formulate solutions and leave no one behind.

Regional variation of age-related blood pressure trajectories and their association with blood pressure control rates, disability-adjusted life years and death

Abstract Background/Introduction While the relationship between blood pressure (BP) changes and increasing age is well described, age-related BP trajectories may vary substantially across different populations and associated with differential CV risk and outcomes. Purpose The dataset of the May Measurement Month (MMM) international campaigns enables a unique investigation of regional, socio-economic and sex differences in age-BP trajectories and their association with major public-health outcomes. Method Global BP data from more than 4,5 million adult (≥18 years) screenees obtained during the cross-sectional MMM campaigns in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021 were used for analysis. Average BP and slopes of BP changes across age groups were calculated within regional, socio-economic and sex strata. BP slopes of individuals between 30 and 70 years of age were derived from adjusted linear regression models, along with baseline BP estimates at young age. These BP slopes were correlated in regression models adjusted for baseline BP at young age with country-specific all-cause rates of DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years), death (both from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019), life expectancy (World Bank data SP.DYN.LE00.IN 2019) and BP control rates (NCD Risk Factor Collaboration). Results Age-related BP changes differed distinctly across global geographic regions, income levels, and between sexes. The steepest increase in BP with age was observed in populations from Africa and Europe, whereas a more gradual rise in BP with increasing age was seen in South-East Asian populations. Women had lower BP levels than men at younger ages (twenties and thirties), but subsequently experienced a more pronounced age-related BP increase resulting in diminishing sex differences across older age groups. Geographically divergent age-related BP trajectories were significantly associated with major national public health indicators. Globally, the steeper the age-related BP slope, the stronger the association with poor BP control (β = -0.46 [95% CI: -0.74; -0.19], p=0.001), increased DALY’s (β = 66155.68 [95% CI: 44847.0; 87464.36], p&amp;lt;0.001) and death rates. (β = 1017.3 [95% CI: 351.72; 1682.89], p=0.003). Conclusion Age-related BP trajectories vary considerably across global populations and contribute considerably to the variability in BP-related risks and adverse outcomes across regions. Effective public health strategies may require region-specific targeting of lifestyle and other factors contributing to adverse BP trajectories to improve health outcomes.Average blood pressure by ageAssiciations with public health metrics

Exploring changes in the distribution of health status in type 2 diabetes over time - methodological aspects for estimating years lost due to disability for Germany

Abstract Knowledge of the severity distribution (SD) of certain diseases is crucial for calculating the years lost due to disability (YLD), as the time spent with a disease is explicitly weighted on the health state level. Depending on the disease, different severity levels are considered. In most cases, the SDs vary from mild, moderate, severe to most severe. This is different in the context of diabetes, where an explicit distinction is made according to the sequelae resulting from the disease progression. In general, these include diabetic neuropathy (with foot ulcers or amputations) and (mild or moderate) vision impairments including blindness due to diabetic retinopathy. These complications cause a considerable loss of quality of life for those affected and high costs for the healthcare system. However, the progression of many of the sequelae can be avoided through (secondary) preventive measures. Estimating the degree of severity is therefore an important indicator of the population affected and in need for care. Due to a lack of data, the Global Burden of Disease Study often uses time-invariant and regionally fixed SDs. Important insights as to the temporal variance of SDs thus remain unnoticed. As part of the BURDEN 2020 pilot project in Germany, SD for diabetes-related complications were estimated from routine health insurance data for the year 2017. In a follow-up project (BURDEN 2.0), these results will also be available for the years 2017 to 2022. If there are any changes in the proportion of individual health conditions, implications can be generated from routine healthcare data of those affected. The SDs overall and according to certain sequelae will be presented over time and discussed. Also, the resulting YLD over time for type 2 diabetes will be examined, including changes in the prevalence of the disease. This makes it possible to analyse and interpret the burden of disease due to diabetes during the years 2017 to 2022.

Mortality due to ischemic stroke in Serbia after redistribution of the inaccurately coded deaths

Abstract Background Ischemic stroke is a major common cause of death not only in Serbia but worldwide. Mortality statistics commonly include ill-defined, impossible and insufficiently specified causes of death among the underlying causes of death (CoDs). In the activities of the Laboratory for Strengthening the Capacity and Performance of the Health System and Workforce for Health Equity, we examined mortality due to ischemic stroke either as well-defined underlying CoDs or garbage codes (GCs - including the ill-defined, unspecified or impossible CoDs) in Belgrade in 2015 and 2020. Methods Anonymous mortality data of the City Institute of Public Health Belgrade were analyzed, and the GCs were redistributed to ischemic stroke as underlying CoDs (ICD-10 codes I63-I63.9), based on the principles of the Global Burden of Disease study, using the three-step approach: 1) exploration and analysis of GCs; 2) modelling of the underlying, antecedent and immediate causes of death; 3) proportionate redistribution. Results 17% of the total of all deaths in Belgrade in 2015 and 20.9% in 2020 were GCs. Before the redistribution, the share of ischemic stroke as the well-coded CoDs of total mortality was 7.3% (1443/19641) in 2015 and 4.6% (1022/21957) in 2020. A total of GCs - 309 deaths in 2015 and 322 in 2020 were identified for redistribution to ischemic stroke. Based on the type of GCs, in 2015, a total of 139 cases were redistributed in type 1 GCs, 83 in type 2 GCs and 87 in type 3 GCs. In 2020, 141 cases were redistributed due to type 1 GCs, 62 type 2 GCs and 119 type 3 GCs. Conclusions This study underscores the significant proportion of all ischemic deaths in Belgrade that were coded with the GCs. After the redistribution, almost one-fifth of the ischemic strokes, previously known as GCs, were added, emphasizing the crucial role of accurate coding in understanding mortality patterns. Improving the coding of deaths is necessary to have reliable information for health policymaking. Key messages • One-fifth of the ischemic strokes in Belgrade were previously GCs. • Accurate coding is essential for understanding mortality patterns and developing valid health policies.

Addressing Regional Health Disparities: Estonia’s Approach to Burden of Disease Studies

Abstract Background Estonia, a small country defined by NUTS2 regions, faces challenges in assessing health disparities across its different counties when using global health data such as the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). Recognizing this limitation, Estonia initiated independent burden of disease studies in Estonia since 2013, with the findings being biennially published through the health statistics database of the National Institute for Health Development. The objective of this research is to assess the strengths and limitations inherent in various methods when calculating the years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs). Methods The approach to assess the burden of disease in Estonia differs somewhat from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodology. One key distinction lies in our utilization of a national life expectancy table and our presentation of results at the LAU1 regional level. These burden of disease studies utilize region-specific life tables supplied by Statistics Estonia, categorized by county and gender, to compute Years of Life Lost (YLLs), offering an opportunity to pinpoint and tackle regional health issues. Results Since the calculation of YLL (Years of Life Lost) in these past studies has relied upon Estonia’s regionalized life tables, categorized by county and gender, the results exhibit substantial disparities when juxtaposed with the Global Burden of Disease study conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Conclusions This research aims to delve deeper into these variations, examining the challenges related to methodology, the availability, and the quality of data, and most importantly, knowledge translation. Our own burden of disease studies empowers us to formulate informed policy recommendations precisely tailored to the distinctive needs of each county, thereby facilitating targeted interventions, and driving improvements in overall public health outcomes.

3.A. Round table: Towards a research agenda for burden of disease studies

Abstract What are the most relevant diseases in a country? Which risk factors are the strongest contributors to disease and death? How is the impact of different diseases evolving over time, and how does it compare between countries and within subnational units? As the need for prioritising the use of available resources constantly increases, a timely, sound and comprehensive answer to these fundamental questions is more than ever needed to inform public health decision-making. Driven by the impact of the Global Burden of Disease study, several researchers and national and international health institutes have adopted the burden of disease approach to address these questions. The complexity of the burden of disease approach however resulted in major disparities in research capacity across Europe. Furthermore, the current burden of disease landscape remains scattered, and researchers struggle to translate their findings to decision makers. The European Burden of Disease Network (COST Action CA18218) addresses these challenges by acting as a technical platform for integrating and strengthening capacity in burden of disease assessment across Europe and beyond. The different activities of the Network have helped to improve the quality and comparability of burden of disease estimates and increase their use in policy and practice. However, still many challenges remain. As a way of looking into the future applications of the burden of disease metrics, the European Burden of Disease Network took the initiative of developing a research agenda based on barriers and weaknesses identified within the activities of the network and input from researchers working regularly with burden of disease. As an initial step, a series of systematic literature review was carried to identify barriers and weaknesses in the computation of burden of disease estimates. These highlighted the differences in methodological choices that could hamper the comparability of results. This point was later identified as a key element of future development (abstract one). Secondly, the members of the network were consulted. Online questionnaires and structured consultations led to the identification of four main pillars of the future research agenda: transparency and availability, refining current methods, new applications, and prioritization of topics. In this workshop, we will present different activities within and outside the Network that correspond to the four pillars above described (abstract 2-4) and start the reflection on the future of burden of disease estimated. Key messages • Despite the wide use of the burden of disease approach, many challenges were identified in the replication of the methods and the need for further developments. • A new research agenda for burden of disease estimates will formalize a way to strengthen methodologies, interpretations and applications.

Cancer mortality attributable to air pollution in Slovakia

Abstract Introduction Air pollution is considered one of the most significant global environmental health risks. According to the Global Burden of Disease estimates, fine particulate matter, a key component of ambient air pollution, was the fifth leading risk factor for mortality worldwide in 2015, contributing to 4.2 million deaths (7.6% of total global deaths). In 2019, ambient air pollution was responsible for 4.5 million deaths. This rise is attributed to the growing levels of air pollution and the increasing incidence of NCDs associated with air pollution. Aim This contribution aims to clarify the possible association between environmental air pollution and cancer in Slovakia in the years 2015-2019 overall and by gender and age. Methodology This ecological study focuses on the population of Slovakia from 2015 to 2019. The data used are from the Global Burden of Disease study (IHME, 2019), the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic and the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. Results In 2019, mortality from NCDs related to environmental pollution accounted for 6.6% of total mortality in Slovakia, which is lower than the global average of 8.3%. Cancer mortality attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) was lower in 2019 (2.97 per 100,000, CI 95% 4.43-1.76) than in 2015. Higher cancer mortality rates attributable to APMP, were observed mainly in men (7.18 per 100,950, CI % 10.67-4.31 in 2015) and especially in the 80-84 age group (59.49 per 100,000; CI 95 % 94.60-32.20) in 2015 and in men aged 75-79 (510.76 per 510.76 per 100,000) in 2019. Conclusions While Slovakia has experienced a long-term decline in cancer mortality, bucking the global trend, challenges persist due to the country’s relatively poorer outcomes associated with environmental pollution. Addressing environmental pollution remains a critical aspect of ongoing efforts to enhance population health through targeted strategies and policies. Key messages • The significant impact of environmental pollution on cancer mortality underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions and policies to improve public health outcomes in Slovakia. • Cancer mortality attributable to air pollution differs by gender.

Refining current methods: Including comorbidity adjustment in burden of disease estimates

Abstract When quantifying years lost due to disability (YLD), a correction for multimorbidity (or comorbidity, COMO for short, in the Global Burden of Disease study) is necessary to avoid overestimating the morbidity-related burden of disease. Such an overestimation occurs if the calculation of disease frequencies does not consider that persons are counted more than once in a cross-sectional year. In such cases, the time spent with illness at an individual level can add up to a value of more than 1 year. To avoid this, a microsimulation is used that corrects the YLD to a maximum value of 1. A standard approach is to generate a synthetic data set by age, gender and region. Using prevalence estimates and based on (independent) Bernoulli experiments, a vector of diseases is randomly assigned to these (pseudo) individuals. The assignment is usually independent, which means that the presence of one disease has no influence on the presence of another disease. At this level, the individual YLD are then proportionally corrected (the maximum value is 1) and extrapolated to the population. However, there is evidence that disease clusters exist at the individual level. As part of the further development of such multimorbidity correction methods, a new approach will be tested and applied to generate a more realistic population of interest. This considers correlation patterns (1st step) between diseases when generating the synthetic data (2nd step) on the basis of Bernoulli experiments. For this purpose, the existing approaches need to be enriched by (pairwise) correlations between diseases, which requires the inclusion of additional epidemiological data sources. It is assumed that this will lead to an additional correction of the YLD, as they are still overestimated under an independent assignment.

Regional inequalities in years of life lost within the European Economic Area: Using the Gini coefficient and slope index of inequality to assess spatial disparities

Abstract Background Health inequalities have been linked to reduced life expectations. This study aimed to investigate regional variations in all-cause years of life lost (YLLs) in European Economic Area (EEA) countries prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods Demographic data were extracted from Eurostat for 1390 small regions 32 EEA countries. Age-standardised sex specific YLL rates per 100,000 population in 2019 were estimated for EEA regions (Eurostat NUTS level 3) using methodologies derived from the Global Burden of Disease study. Relative spatial disparities were evaluated using the Gini coefficient (GC) and absolute spatial disparities assessed using the slope index of inequality (SII). Results Between EEA countries, relative geographical inequality in age-standardized YLL rates was higher than within them, slightly more so for males (GC = 16.96% [95% CI = 16.26-17.65]) than females (14.22% [13.62-14.82]). Among females, the UK (11.21% [95% CI 10.11-12.30]), Greece, and Croatia had the highest relative spatial inequality, while Ireland (3.37% [2.26-4.48]), Slovakia, and the Netherlands had the lowest. For males, Belgium (10.76% [9.34-12.17]), the UK, and Croatia exhibited the highest relative spatial inequality, while Ireland (1.99% [1.18-2.81]), Lithuania, and Slovakia had the lowest. Germany had the largest absolute geographical inequality in YLLs among females (SII=16.86% [16.28 to 17.44]), followed by Estonia and the UK. Among males, Estonia had the largest absolute spatial inequality (36.60% [-10.88 to 84.07]), followed by Latvia and Hungary. Ireland had the lowest absolute spatial inequality for both females and males. Conclusions Relative and absolute disparities in premature mortality rates are evident across regions of the EEA, both within countries and across the entire region. These findings offer insights for national and local stakeholders, aiding them in customising public health interventions to target spatial health disparities.

The impact of garbage codes on the quality of death coding in Belgrade in 2010, 2015, and 2020

Abstract Background Accurate data on the causes of death (CoDs) is the foundation for analyzing the health situation and developing health policy in various countries. The percentage of garbage codes (GCs) indicates the quality of the CoDs data. Within the Western Balkan Strategic Partnership Project (Work Package 4: Use of Population Health Metrics for Improved Surveillance), we evaluated the impact of the four levels of GCs on the quality of mortality data of Belgrade. Methods In a retrospective study, we examined the underlying CoDs of Belgrade residents by age and sex and the change in GCs’ share in the CoDs in 2010, 2015, and 2020. We used anonymous individual mortality data and population age and sex annual data from the electronic databases of the City Institute of Public Health of Belgrade, as well as the list of GS levels 1-4 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Results Over the observed years, the percentage of all GCs in underlying CoDs was approximately 20%. The GCs with profound policy implications level 1 accounted for 52% of all GCs in 2020, higher than those recorded in previous years - 46.3% in 2010 and 45.1% in 2015. The total number of GCs per 100,000 inhabitants in Belgrade was the highest in 2020, with a rate of 325.2/100,000 (males: 374.4, females: 301.3). This rate has increased by about one-third since 2010 (both sexes: 245.4, males: 269.2, females: 221.1) and by about two-fifths since 2015 (both sexes: 235.8, males: 262.7, females: 211.8). Conclusions This research has revealed a significant decline in the quality of data related to the causes of death in Belgrade. One-fifth of the recorded causes of death are inaccurate or unreliable. The study highlights the importance of maintaining strict protocols for data collection, analysis, and management to ensure the accuracy and reliability of CoDs data in developing effective public health policies. Key messages • The rate of total garbage codes per 100,000 inhabitants of Belgrade has increased by about two-fifths since 2015. • Failure in quality, accuracy, and reliability of causes of death can lead to suboptimal health policymaking.

Assessing the contribution of smoking to the disease burden in Belgium, 2013-2020

Abstract Tobacco use remains a challenge given its substantial role in contributing to disability and premature death globally. Understanding its impact on population health, as an attributable burden, can help monitor progress on the effectiveness of tobacco policies. In this study, we used the Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) method to estimate the share of the disease burden due to smoking in Belgium from 2013 to 2020. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were computed for risk-outcome pairs by age, sex, and region in Belgium for 2013-2020. Exposure estimates were extracted from a time series of the Belgian Health Interview Survey. Dose-response curves or relative risk estimates were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. In Belgium, smoking-related deaths decreased from 12,851 deaths (PAF=11%) in 2013 to 9,413 deaths (PAF=7%) in 2020. Deaths among men (2013: PAF=18%, n = 9859; 2020: PAF=11%, n = 7041) were three times higher than among women (2013: PAF=5%, n = 2991; 2020: PAF=3%, n = 2341). Over time, larynx cancer (2013: PAF=72%, n = 185; 2020: PAF=63%, n = 125), trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer (2013: PAF=60%, n = 4,899; 2020: PAF=60%, n = 3,682), other pharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancers (2013: PAF=47%, n = 118; 2020: PAF=40%, n = 100), mouth cancer (2013: PAF=37%, n = 172; 2020: PAF=30%, n = 122), and aortic aneurysm (2013: PAF=40%, n = 268; 2020: PAF=33%, n = 209) emerged as the primary contributors to smoking-related deaths in Belgium. While the ranking of contributing causes stayed mostly consistent in both genders over the years, cervical cancer (2013: PAF=23%, n = 53; 2020: PAF=21%, n = 64) ranked fourth instead of mouth cancer (2013: PAF=22%, n = 28; 2020: PAF=14%, n = 15) among women. Despite decreasing trends over time, smoking remains a significant contributor to cancer deaths in Belgium, particularly among men. Results from this study can help inform the development of strategies for smoking prevention and reinforce the need for continued efforts in prevention initiatives. Key messages • Cancers are the primary cause of smoking-related deaths in Belgium, with a decline in the death toll over time. • Understanding the role of smoking on population health as an attributable burden can improve health monitoring.