Gas Shortages Research Articles

The complex interplay between sectoral energy consumption and economic growth: Policy implications for Iran and beyond

Iran's abundant energy reserves starkly contrast with recent power and gas shortages, particularly impacting the industrial sector. Furthermore, long-term trends reveal a concerning pattern where total primary energy consumption has outpaced economic growth, doubling in recent decades. These challenges emphasize the need for a thorough evaluation of the intricate interplay between sectoral energy consumption and economic output in Iran, bearing profound policy implications. The current study employs ARDL and VECM approaches to analyze empirical long- and short-term dynamics. Regarding Iran, the results unveil causal relationships from industrial energy consumption to GDP and from GDP to energy consumption in buildings. Notably the significant positive value of elasticity of GDP with respect to industrial energy use highlights the need for nuanced energy management measures. Variations across sectors underscore the justification for recognizing industrial energy consumption as productive energy use. The results gain additional support from a panel data analysis spanning fourteen diverse countries, bearing significance for IAMs applied in climate change research. While IAMs traditionally employ total energy consumption or the sectoral energy uses collectively, as production factors, the research highlights the need to reevaluate model frameworks for potential different outcomes from established practices.

Australia’s gas markets: similar problems…similar solutions?

Declining supply and entrenched demand in all three of Australia’s domestic gas markets – the East Coast, Western Australia (WA) and the Northern Territory (NT) – is creating similar issues. We tend to think of these as essentially separate, disconnected and divided by vast swathes of land. But the reality is that scarce local supply has been sanctioned in all three markets – despite around 16 tcf being sanctioned for export as liquefied natural gas (LNG) – and domestic demand remains resilient, as per both Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and Wood Mackenzie forecasts. Starting with the largest, the increasingly tight East Coast market continues to hit headlines as it deals with supply crises, government interventions and new regulations. Undersupplied, underinvested and underexplored, it is also divided by activism and state and federal politics. Traditionally more sedate, the WA market has slowly drifted in a similar direction. New forecasts highlighting potential gas shortages have sparked more state intervention in the market, including banning LNG exports by certain suppliers. The NT market might be the smallest, but it’s ahead of the curve, already experiencing emergency upstream shortages that sparked increased domestic supply from LNG exporters. While there is a less diverse range of supply sources in the NT, the answer to current shortages matches the options currently being looked at by regulators on both coasts.

Household Air Pollution: A Dire Need Of Awareness In Pakistan.

Dear Editor, Household Air Pollution [HAP] has proven to be associated with an increased risk of acquiring asthma, lung cancer, pulmonary tuberculosis, and acute respiratory infections in adults and children, along with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease [COPD], cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, low birth weight, and stillbirth [1]. This pollution is caused primarily by the absence of clean fuels, which includes electricity, biogas, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), solar, or alcohol fuels. Owing to the absence of clean fuels, individuals resort to the use of biomass to meet their needs, exposing themselves to the detrimental effects of biomass usage. Unfortunately, Pakistan is one of the worst-faring victims of this predicament. As of 2020, only 49.3% of Pakistanis primarily relied on clean fuels and technologies for cooking [2]. With only 26% of rural areas having access to clean fuels, traditional, inefficient three-stone stoves for biomass combustion are typical in rural areas[2][3]. Such stoves expel poisonous gasses, including Nitrogen oxides, Carbon monoxide, and formaldehyde, in addition to several toxic organic compounds depending on the type of biomass used, all detrimental to human health [4]. In urban areas, especially in winter, widespread gas shortages are prevalent, restricting an unknown number of citizens to biomass combustion for their day-to-day purposes. In both scenarios, the harms of HAP are imminent. Unfortunately, using gas stoves in poorly ventilated areas also shows milder effects of HAP [5]. Alarmingly, despite the adverse impact and the high prevalence of HAP, the matter remains neglected, with only very few studies connecting the above-stated health risks with the Pakistani population, evaluating the burden Pakistan bears because of HAP, and assessing the correct strategies for intervention. Such studies would result in implementing specific research-backed mitigation strategies customized to be specifically applicable to different socioeconomic backgrounds and regions of Pakistan, for example, efficient ventilatory systems relevant to Pakistani houses designed to reduce HAP. In the meantime, examples of general policies include, but are not limited to, television advertisements, awareness drives, and allotting larger budgets towards cleaner fuel provision. For people utilizing primitive three-stone stoves, a plancha stove, comprising simply a stove and a chimney, can also be provided. The usage of such stoves is associated with a significantly reduced exposure to HAP [6]. Individually, when operating stoves for any purpose, it is crucial to prioritize ventilation. ---Continue

Specific solutions for reducing energy consumption in existing and new AAC plants

AbstractThe life cycle analysis of AAC has shown that the majority of CO2 emissions is caused by the binding agents: cement and quicklime. Only 16% are generated during the production process. However, the warning of gas shortages, power black‐out scenarios and the enormous increase in energy costs are now drawing attention to implement more energy‐saving measures into the production process. Considering renewable energy sources, e.g. photovoltaic or wind power, there are legitimate concerns regarding high consumers, like the sand mill or slurry agitators and their load peak, especially when starting the machines. Before installing renewable electrical energy producers, it is essential to minimise the basic load, avoid load peaks and use existing electrical “energy producers”. Although large energy savings like autoclave steam transfer, heat recovery systems, energy saving motors, LED‐lights are already standard in most plants, a lot of energy is still wasted in the industry. This seminar will demonstrate with specific examples additional new energy saving measures like: intelligent start/stop automatic energy recovery or storage energy efficient machine design smart lighting control predictive maintenance algorithms. Each individual measure does not seem to have a big influence but it may come as a surprise how much energy saving potential there is in the sum of these individual measures. Specifically, tested and implemented energy‐saving measures in WEHRHAHN AAC plants will be explained, giving answers to: How can existing AAC plants be even more updated in an energy‐efficient manner? What does a modern, energy‐efficient AAC plant look like?

Europe: Well-positioned to get through next winter without major gas shortages

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and resulting international sanctions, natural gas imports from Russia to Europe declined drastically to well below their historical averages. This reduction raised concerns about Europe’s energy supply, given its dependence on Russian gas.

Energy security dilemma and energy transition policy in the context of climate change: A perspective from China

Fossil fuel-related energy crises continue to threaten energy security and create problems for the transition to low-carbon energy. This study estimates the effects of coal-to-gas policies on natural gas consumption in various regions in China using the two-way fixed-effects multi-period difference in differences method and the staggered difference in differences method. We also measure the policy implementation intensity using textual analysis methods. Using daily data on natural gas consumption, the regression discontinuity design in time method is applied to explore the causality between coal-to-gas policies and natural gas shortages. The main results are as follows: coal-to-gas policies significantly boost yearly average natural gas consumption. A heterogeneity analysis shows townships, rural, and county are the focus of policy implementation. Investments in natural gas utilities and increased gas utilization are the main channels for increasing natural gas demand. While coal-to-gas policies cause natural gas shortages during the heating season, additional pipeline networks, liquefied natural gas receiving station and gas storage depots could improve the stability of supplies and reduce the impact of peak-to-trough differences. The article demonstrates for the first time that radical energy transition policies are one of the main causes of the energy crisis, providing a crucial foundation for national energy and environmental policies, and having some implications for the global energy transition process.

How vulnerable are US natural gas pipelines to electric outages?

Gas-electric interdependencies have contributed to several major electric system emergencies. Natural gas pipelines use both gas-powered and electric-powered compressor units; power outages at the latter can cause gas shortages. We make the first rigorous identification of the number of US electric compressor stations, finding that 10% are electric. California, the Midwest, the Gulf Coast, and the East have high installed electric compressor capacity. New hydraulic models, verified by past events, show that disrupting power to a single compressor station can force a loss greater than 2 GW of downstream gas generators. Such an outage can be larger than the most severe single-cause failure currently considered in electric reliability planning. Electric utilities should immediately incorporate the identified facilities into critical facility lists. Establishing a federal gas reliability organization, comparable to what is now done for electric power, could improve gas reliability by establishing appropriate reliability reporting, incident investigation, and minimum industry standards.

Fluctuations of Natural Gas Prices for Households in the 2017–2022 Period—Polish Case Study

The considerable share of natural gas in the aggregated gross available energy clearly indicates the resource’s importance for the energy security of EU states. Natural gas shortages caused by energy crises result in the resource’s price increases in foreign markets. The condition of the global energy system translates directly to the prices of natural gas for households. The main research objectives were the analysis of prices of household natural gas in the EU, and identification of key factors affecting the prices of household natural gas in Poland and their effect on the prices established in domestic tariffs. The secondary data analysis method (desk research) was used in the research. The 2017–2022 data were acquired from Eurostat, the Polish distributor’s (PGNiG SA) tariffs, the Energy Regulatory Office and exchange information. The paper fills a research gap in the disparity of prices of natural gas supplied to final individual recipients in the EU. It was established that the sudden increases in natural gas purchase prices on energy resource exchanges translated into a similarly dynamic increase in the household gas fuel prices. The price data concerning Poland were compared to analogous data from other EU member states. It was established that in the period between the first half of 2021 and the first half of 2022, gas prices in the EU increased by over 34% on average (maximum of 150%). It was concluded that the household natural gas prices in Poland, established in the officially approved distribution tariffs of PGNiG SA, are substantially affected by two factors: energy resource purchase prices on the Polish Power Exchange (TGE), and purchase prices on foreign markets. The main reason for price increases was the unforeseen substantial changes in the conditions of conducting business activity by PGNiG SA in terms of gas fuel trading, resulting from the increase in high-methane natural gas purchase price at the TGE. On the other hand, the increases in purchase price of natural gas imported from EU or EFTA member states by 2021 have moderately translated into increases in prices established in officially approved tariffs. A similar effect of household natural gas price increase has also occurred in other EU member states but was not uniform. The effect depended on the volume of gas production and consumption in the given country, and on the diversity of gas sources that determined the resource’s purchase price.

Supply reliability-driven joint optimization of maintenance and spare parts inventory in a gas pipeline system

This work proposes a method for the joint optimization of the maintenance and spare parts inventory to maximize the reliability of gas supply in a pipeline system. The method trades off maintenance costs and risk of gas shortages. System failure probability calculation and system maximum supply capacity analysis, joint optimization modeling and system maintenance planning, are performed. A gas compressor station is considered as object of the analysis and a discrete Markov model is used to describe the state transition process. A supply capacity model is proposed to analyze the maximum supply capacity of the pipeline system under different failure scenarios. The joint optimization of maintenance and spare parts inventory is performed using a genetic algorithm to optimize the inspection interval and spare ordering time, considering the stochastic behavior of lead time. The effectiveness of the method is validated on a case study of a pipeline system in China. The results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms others in identifying optimal maintenance strategies. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of critical parameters is analyzed in detail, which can further ensure the robustness of the method.

European Energy Crises, Climate Action and Emerging Market of Carbon-Neutral LNG

Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) has received world-wide attention due to its growing market demands as pointed out by International Energy Agency (IEA), and McKinsey. This article aims to observe contemporary European developments in accordance with the Union’s energy strategy and the Paris Agreement. With the reduction in import of Russian gas, purchasing LNG became an alternative policy option to meet overall energy needs in Europe. European governments and companies are making large investments in land-based regasification terminals and floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). These trends have fueled hopes that Europe may be able to avoid the worst-case scenario of massive gas shortages, rationing, and industrial shutdowns in the coming months. Nonetheless, such positive short-term developments should not obscure the challenges Europe’s energy-dependent industries are facing due to high gas and electricity prices, which will likely remain elevated for some time. Industries with gas-intensive production or with high absolute demand for gas could still see disruptions during this winter.
 Moreover, this article also evaluates the role of carbon-neutral LNG in European energy crises and its link with eco-friendly processes as set out by the EU and its consequences for the Asian market. The major findings include that the existing carbon measurement framework does not meet the global needs of the LNG industry. Moreover, the breadth of LNG usage is linked to viable GHG emission framework availability.

Comparative efficiency of application of the maximum clique method in searching for critically important objects of the gas industry

The article proposes the use of a model of the "defender - attacker - defender" type to determine the possibilities of the gas industry to reduce gas shortages for consumers in the event of failure of its critical facilities. The calculation scheme of the gas transmission network in this study is presented in the form of a directed graph, in the nodes of which there are objects of production, consumption, storage of gas and nodal compressor stations. All found cliques are analyzed, and a list of measures aimed at reducing possible gas shortages among consumers is compiled. The article presents the results of the analysis. The results of applying the method of determining the maximum cliques to search for critical objects of the gas industry were evaluated in comparison with the results obtained earlier on this topic. Conclusions are drawn about the feasibility of using the proposed method to determine the critically important objects of the gas industry.

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy January to June 2022

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy January to June 2022

Green innovation of state-owned oil and gas enterprises in BRICS countries: a review of performance

ABSTRACT State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are a major force in energy markets in BRICS countries, including in national energy innovation systems. In this research, we investigate whether some of the largest oil and gas SOEs in BRICS countries – Brazil’s Petrobras, Russia’s Gazprom, India’s ONGC, China’s PetroChina, and South Africa’s PetroSA – are greening their innovation to foster low-carbon solutions in line with shifting government Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) on climate change. We compare the innovation priorities of oil and gas SOE firms in these countries, and specifically their efforts in clean energy from 2005 to 2020. Using an original data set, we set forth case studies on five SOEs and highlight differences in their approaches across a number of different features: the level of government ownership; firms’ revenues and financial health; national government policy; and global oil prices. We assess factors influencing performance in clean energy innovation and study each firm’s success in registering patents for specifically targeted energy technologies. Our findings show that all five SOEs demonstrate only modest efforts in greening of their energy innovation outcomes. We observe their heavy reliance on oil revenues to finance innovation and note how ongoing responsibility to avoid oil and gas shortages is stifling green innovation. We recommend policy avenues for governments to realign SOE practices with climate action and specifically NDCs.

ANTI-CRISIS MEASURES OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

The article analyzes the deterioration in the situation in the German energy sector that began in 2021 and continued in 2022. It was complemented by a significant intensification of the crisis surrounding Ukraine. Its consequence was the introduction of a harsh sanction’s regime against Russia by the collective West, primarily by the United States and the European Union. As part of multiple sanctions packages in March-June, restrictions on a number of domestic primary energy sources were imposed, which were major contributors to rising global oil and gas prices and curbed Russian gas supplies to Europe. This has become one of the most important factors driving inflation growth in Germany and raising expectations of gas shortages on the eve of the next autumnwinter season. Since the beginning of the year, the government has taken a number of measures in the energy sector, which, however, at the beginning of the second half of the year were only able to partially alleviate the looming crisis. The author assesses the effectiveness of German anti-crisis instruments and the prospects of maintaining a consensus in the coalition government on further steps to resolve the situation. Particular attention is paid to the conflict over the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline.

Höchste Zeit für einen Gaspreisdeckel: ein wichtiges Instrument im Kampf gegen Energiepreisbelastung

AbstractThe explosive increase of the price of natural gas is a key driver of inflation in Germany. At the same time, physical gas shortages in the fall or winter are a plausible scenario. A policy response is urgently needed that protects households from skyrocketing heating costs while at the same time maintaining price incentives to save gas. We have proposed a gas price cap for households’ basic consumption and market prices for all demand above that guaranteed base. Our proposal has been widely discussed by economists and policy makers. In this article, we respond to some criticisms, provide details on the feasibility of our proposal, and urge for swift political action.

Gas shortages loom in Germany

Gas shortages loom in Germany

Natural gas shortages loom for Germany’s chemical industry

Natural gas shortages loom for Germany’s chemical industry

Price Responsiveness of Residential Demand for Natural Gas in the United States

While price responsiveness of residential demand for natural gas has important implications on resource planning and energy modelling, its estimates from prior studies are very diverse. Applying panel data analysis and five parametric specifications to monthly data for the lower 48 states in 1990–2019, we estimate own-price elasticities of residential demand for natural gas in the United States (US). Using results from cross-section dependence (CD) test, panel unit root tests, panel time-series estimators, and rolling-window analysis, we document: (1) the statistically significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) static own-price elasticity estimates are −0.271 to −0.486, short-run −0.238 to −0.555 and long-run −0.323 to −0.796; (2) these estimates vary by elasticity type, sample period, parametric specification, treatment of CD and assumption of partial adjustment; (3) erroneously ignoring the highly significant (p-value < 0.01) CD shrinks the size of these estimates that vary seasonally, regionally, and nonlinearly over time; and (4) residential natural gas shortage costs decline with the size of own-price elasticity estimates. These findings suggest that achieving deep decarbonization may require strategies that do not rely solely on prices, such as energy efficiency standards and demand-side-management programs. Demand response programs may prove useful for managing natural gas shortages.

Multi-objective optimization of natural gas supply chain in shortage period

ABSTRACT Natural gas consumption usually has the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations. Some countries have experienced gas shortages in recent years due to the imbalance between supply and demand, especially in winter or peak gas consumption periods. Under the conditions of a gas shortage, it is necessary to ensure the benefits of marketers and improve their satisfaction from users’ perspectives, so it is difficult to find the optimal purchase and sales strategy. Considering that different pipeline transportation pricing mechanisms and different gas distribution schemes have a great impact on the benefits of marketers, this paper proposes a multi-objective optimization model that maximizes the marketer’s benefits and minimizes the hypoxia index for different pipeline transportation mechanisms because of the supply-side gas shortage in the upstream gas source. The object-weighted method is used to process the multi-objective problem. The CPLEX solver is adopted to solve the optimization problem. Finally, the model is applied to a long-distance natural gas supply chain system to prove its applicability. After multi-objective optimization, under the two pipeline transport mechanisms, profits increased by 17.5% and 6.9%, respectively, and the hypoxia index decreased by 1.11 and 1.93, respectively, which greatly improved economic benefits and user satisfaction. Overall, the optimized scheme can maintain the stable operation of the natural gas supply chain and make up for the losses caused by the gas shortage.

Peak underground gas storage efficiency in reducing the vulnerability of gas supply to consumers in an extensive gas transmission system

The paper seeks to address the questions of how to assess the comparative efficiency of peak underground gas storages (PUGSs) to reduce the vulnerability of regional gas systems in the case of emergencies in the gas industry and how to prioritize the commissioning of these PUGSs in a large-scale geographically distributed and ramified gas transmission network.The research method used to answer the posed questions involves the analysis of the natural gas consumption in regions, the technological structure of the main gas transmission network serving these regions, and the technological characteristics of PUGSs planned for construction. This research method suggests specialized multi-iteration model studies to adequately simulate the operation of all process objects of the gas transmission network. Emergencies in the gas transmission network are simulated through the failure of the critical facilities of this network. The operation of the gas transmission network under these conditions is simulated with the planned PUGSs introduced into the network (one at a time). Comparative efficiency and priority of each PUGS are determined by a relative decrease in gas shortage for consumers in the case of this PUGS commissioning during large-scale emergencies in the gas transmission network.The main research results are illustrated by the case of Russia that has a developed gas transmission system with a complex configuration and considerable amounts of gas transported. The vulnerability analysis results are presented for regional gas systems located in the operating area of the Russian gas transmission network before and after the commissioning of these PUGS facilities. All planned storage facilities are ranked according to their efficiency and priority for reducing the vulnerability of regional gas supply systems in cases of large-scale emergencies in the country's gas transmission system. The findings suggest that the proposed approach, when applied to Russia, will reduce the average expected gas shortage across the country under the grave emergencies in the gas transmission network by up to 27%.The conclusion based on the studies and obtained results indicates that the proposed approach is feasible and effective. In practical terms, for Russia, it has been inferred that it is necessary to investigate the possibilities of additional PUGSs in the northern part of the Russian gas transmission network. This will additionally decrease the vulnerability of gas systems in Russia's northern areas, which are most susceptible to gas shortages under emergencies in the gas industry.