Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Research Articles

The elimination of human African trypanosomiasis: Monitoring progress towards the 2021-2030 WHO road map targets.

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) is a neglected tropical disease that usually occurs in rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa. It caused devastating epidemics during the 20th century. Sustained, coordinated efforts by different stakeholders working with national sleeping sickness control programmes (NSSCPs) succeeded in controlling the disease and reducing the number of cases to historically low levels. In 2012, WHO targeted the elimination of the disease as a public health problem by 2020. This goal has been reached and a new ambitious target was stated in the WHO road map for NTDs 2021-2030 and endorsed by the 73rd World Health Assembly: the elimination of gambiense HAT transmission (i.e. reducing the number of reported cases to zero). The interruption of transmission was not considered as an achievable goal for rhodesiense HAT, as it would require vast veterinary interventions rather than actions at the public health level. Data reported to WHO by NSSCPs were harmonized, verified, georeferenced and included in the atlas of HAT. A total of 802 cases were reported in 2021 and 837 in 2022. This is below the target for elimination as a public health problem at the global level (< 2000 HAT cases/year); 94% of the cases were caused by infection with T. b. gambiense. The areas reporting ≥ 1 HAT case/10 000 inhabitants/year in 2018-2022 cover a surface of 73 134 km2, with only 3013 km2 at very high or high risk. This represents a reduction of 90% from the baseline figure for 2000-2004, the target set for the elimination of HAT as a public health problem. For the surveillance of the disease, 4.5 million people were screened for gambiense HAT with serological tests in 2021-2022, 3.6 million through active screening and 0.9 million by passive screening. In 2021 and 2022 the elimination of HAT as a public health problem was validated in Benin, Uganda, Equatorial Guinea and Ghana for gambiense HAT and in Rwanda for rhodesiense HAT. To reach the next goal of elimination of transmission of gambiense HAT, countries have to report zero cases of human infection with T. b. gambiense for a period of at least 5 consecutive years. The criteria and procedures to verify elimination of transmission have been recently published by WHO. HAT elimination as a public health problem has been reached at global level, with seven countries already validated as having reached this goal. This achievement was made possible by the work of NSSCPs, supported by different public and private partners, and coordinated by WHO. The new challenging goal now is to reach zero cases by 2030. To reach this goal is crucial to maintain the engagement and support of donors and stakeholders and to keep the involvement and coordination of all partners. Along with the focus on elimination of transmission of gambiense HAT, it is important not to neglect rhodesiense HAT, which is targeted for elimination as a public health problem in the WHO road map for NTDs 2021-2030.

Comparison of stochastic and deterministic models for gambiense sleeping sickness at different spatial scales: A health area analysis in the DRC.

The intensification of intervention activities against the fatal vector-borne disease gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT, sleeping sickness) in the last two decades has led to a large decline in the number of annually reported cases. However, while we move closer to achieving the ambitious target of elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans, pockets of infection remain, and it becomes increasingly important to quantitatively assess if different regions are on track for elimination, and where intervention efforts should be focused. We present a previously developed stochastic mathematical model for gHAT in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and show that this same formulation is able to capture the dynamics of gHAT observed at the health area level (approximately 10,000 people). This analysis was the first time any stochastic gHAT model has been fitted directly to case data and allows us to better quantify the uncertainty in our results. The analysis focuses on utilising a particle filter Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to fit the model to the data from 16 health areas of Mosango health zone in Kwilu province as a case study. The spatial heterogeneity in cases is reflected in modelling results, where we predict that under the current intervention strategies, the health area of Kinzamba II, which has approximately one third of the health zone's cases, will have the latest expected year for EoT. We find that fitting the analogous deterministic version of the gHAT model using MCMC has substantially faster computation times than fitting the stochastic model using pMCMC, but produces virtually indistinguishable posterior parameterisation. This suggests that expanding health area fitting, to cover more of the DRC, should be done with deterministic fits for efficiency, but with stochastic projections used to capture both the parameter and stochastic variation in case reporting and elimination year estimations.

APOL 1 Risk Genotype is associated with Albuminuria in Sub-Saharan African without Hypertension: A Case Study of Trypanosoma Brucei Gambiense Endemic Area

Purpose. An association between APOL1 risk genotypes (HRG) and hypertension has been reported in African Americans with chronic kidney diseases (CKD). However, such data from African populations living in a Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) endemic area remain limited.This study assessed the association between APOL1 high-risk genotypes (HRG) and hypertension among sub-Saharan African in T.b. gambiense endemic area.&#x0D; Methodology. This cross-sectional study enrolled 94 HAT-infected and 144 non–infected participants in Masimanimba, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, from April 2019 to April 2021. We evaluated the association between APOL1 HRG and hypertension in HAT-infected and non–infected participants. APOL1 HRG was defined as the presence of two risk variants (G1/G1, G2/G2, or G1/G2), and a low-risk genotype (LRG) with the presence of 0 or 1 single variant. The elevated albuminuria was defined as urinary albumin/creatinine ratio ≥ 30 mg/g. Student’s and Pearson's Chi2 tests or Fisher’s exact test were used to compare means and proportions. The Wilcoxon/Mann–Whitney test was used to compare medians. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify independent determinants of hypertension. Odds ratios were provided with their 95% confidence intervals (Cis). Statistical significance was set at p &lt; 0.05, based on 2-tailed test.&#x0D; Findings. APOL1 sequence analysis revealed that 3 of 21 (14.3%) hypertensive participants carried HRG (G1G1) and 7 of 103 (6.8%) non-hypertensive carried HRG (G1G1, G2G2, and G1G2) (p=0.371). The frequency of APOL1 HRG among hypertensive participants was 14.3% in both HAT- infected and uninfected individuals. Ten of 21 (47.6%) hypertensive individuals with elevated albuminuria had a higher incidence of CKD (100% vs. 0%; p &lt; 0.001) and HRG (30% vs. 0%; p = 0.09) than 11 (52.3%) without albuminuria who carried LRG. Of 103 non-hypertensive subjects, 43 (41.7%) with elevated albuminuria had a higher frequency of HRG (16.3% vs. 0%; p = 0.002) and CKD (100% vs. 1.7%; p&lt;0.001) compared with 60 of 103 (58.3%) without albuminuria who carried LRG.&#x0D; Unique contributor to theory, policy and practice: APOL1 HRG was associated with albuminuria and CKD, regardless of the hypertension status in T.b. gambiense HAT endemic area. However, further prospective cohort studies are required to confirm these results. The High-risk subjects will benefit from early preventive measures in low-income countries.

Target product profile: Trypanosoma brucei gambiense test to verify elimination.

Human African trypanosomiasis is a life-threatening parasitic infection transmitted by the tsetse fly in sub-Saharan Africa. The most common form is caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, with humans as the main reservoir. Diagnosis in the field requires microscopic examination performed by specifically trained personnel. After over two decades of sustained efforts, the incidence of the disease is strongly declining, and some historically endemic countries are no longer detecting cases. The World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted the elimination of transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis by 2030, defined as zero autochthonous cases for at least five consecutive years. Endemic countries reaching this goal must maintain dedicated surveillance to detect re-emergence or re-introduction. With this new agenda, new tools are needed for verification of the absence of transmission. WHO has therefore developed a target product profile calling for development of a method for population-level cross-cutting surveillance of T. b. gambiense transmission. The method needs to be performed in national or sub-national reference laboratories, and to test in parallel numerous samples shipped from remote rural areas. Among other characteristics the product profile specifies: (i)a simple specimen collection procedure; (ii)no cold-chain requirement to transfer specimens to reference laboratories; (iii)high sensitivity and specificity; (iv)high-throughput, substantially automatized; (v)low cost per specimen, when analysed in large batches; and (vi)applicable also in animals.

Towards the sustainable elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Côte d'Ivoire using an integrated approach.

Human African trypanosomiasis is a parasitic disease caused by trypanosomes among which Trypanosoma brucei gambiense is responsible for a chronic form (gHAT) in West and Central Africa. Its elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) was targeted for 2020. Côte d'Ivoire was one of the first countries to be validated by WHO in 2020 and this was particularly challenging as the country still reported around a hundred cases a year in the early 2000s. This article describes the strategies implemented including a mathematical model to evaluate the reporting results and infer progress towards sustainable elimination. The control methods used combined both exhaustive and targeted medical screening strategies including the follow-up of seropositive subjects- considered as potential asymptomatic carriers to diagnose and treat cases- as well as vector control to reduce the risk of transmission in the most at-risk areas. A mechanistic model was used to estimate the number of underlying infections and the probability of elimination of transmission (EoT) was met between 2000-2021 in two endemic and two hypo-endemic health districts. Between 2015 and 2019, nine gHAT cases were detected in the two endemic health districts of Bouaflé and Sinfra in which the number of cases/10,000 inhabitants was far below 1, a necessary condition for validating EPHP. Modelling estimated a slow but steady decline in transmission across the health districts, bolstered in the two endemic health districts by the introduction of vector control. The decrease in underlying transmission in all health districts corresponds to a high probability that EoT has already occurred in Côte d'Ivoire. This success was achieved through a multi-stakeholder and multidisciplinary one health approach where research has played a major role in adapting tools and strategies to this large epidemiological transition to a very low prevalence. This integrated approach will need to continue to reach the verification of EoT in Côte d'Ivoire targeted by 2025.

Health economic evaluation of strategies to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul disease focus of Chad.

Human African trypanosomiasis, caused by the gambiense subspecies of Trypanosoma brucei (gHAT), is a deadly parasitic disease transmitted by tsetse. Partners worldwide have stepped up efforts to eliminate the disease, and the Chadian government has focused on the previously high-prevalence setting of Mandoul. In this study, we evaluate the economic efficiency of the intensified strategy that was put in place in 2014 aimed at interrupting the transmission of gHAT, and we make recommendations on the best way forward based on both epidemiological projections and cost-effectiveness. In our analysis, we use a dynamic transmission model fit to epidemiological data from Mandoul to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combinations of active screening, improved passive screening (defined as an expansion of the number of health posts capable of screening for gHAT), and vector control activities (the deployment of Tiny Targets to control the tsetse vector). For cost-effectiveness analyses, our primary outcome is disease burden, denominated in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and costs, denominated in 2020 US$. Although active and passive screening have enabled more rapid diagnosis and accessible treatment in Mandoul, the addition of vector control provided good value-for-money (at less than $750/DALY averted) which substantially increased the probability of reaching the 2030 elimination target for gHAT as set by the World Health Organization. Our transmission modelling and economic evaluation suggest that the gains that have been made could be maintained by passive screening. Our analysis speaks to comparative efficiency, and it does not take into account all possible considerations; for instance, any cessation of ongoing active screening should first consider that substantial surveillance activities will be critical to verify the elimination of transmission and to protect against the possible importation of infection from neighbouring endemic foci.

Community empowerment through participation in a tsetse control project in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) is a neglected tropical disease caused by trypanosomes transmitted by tsetse flies. In 2017, a pilot community-based project was launched in three villages in DRC with the overall goal of empowering community members to control tsetse using Tiny Targets which attract and kill tsetse. In this paper, we assess the community participation process in these three pilot villages over >4 years and evaluate to what extent this resulted in the empowerment of communities. We conducted a qualitative study using a participatory research approach. Together with community members of the three pilot villages from the endemic Kwilu province, we evaluated changes in project participation, community empowerment and perception of future participation at three different time points (September 2017, September 2018 and November 2021) over a 4-year period using participatory workshops and focus group discussions (FGD). We used a thematic content approach to analyse both workshop notes and FGD transcripts. The community identified five indicators to evaluate participation: (1) Leadership & Ownership, (2) Organisation & Planning, (3) Willingness, (4) Autonomy and (5) Community Involvement. The participation experience described by community members was characterised by a rapid growth of empowerment in the first year and sustained high levels thereafter. Community participants were willing to engage in potential future projects and continue to be supported by their Tiny Target project partner. However, they identified an imbalance in the power relationship within the committee and with the Tiny Target partners that limit the extent of empowerment attained. The intervention had broader benefits of community empowerment but this was limited by perceptions of being part of wider "top down" programme and by stakeholders attitude toward community participation. If empowerment is to be an important objective of projects and programmes then the needs identified by communities must be recognised and attitude of sharing power encouraged.

A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a deadly vector-borne, neglected tropical disease found in West and Central Africa targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. The recent pandemic has illustrated how it can be important to quantify the impact that unplanned disruption to programme activities may have in achieving EoT. We used a previously developed model of gHAT fitted to data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the country with the highest global case burden, to explore how interruptions to intervention activities, due to e.g. COVID-19, Ebola or political instability, could impact progress towards EoT and gHAT burden. We simulated transmission and reporting dynamics in 38 regions within Kwilu, Mai Ndombe and Kwango provinces under six interruption scenarios lasting for nine or twenty-one months. Included in the interruption scenarios are the cessation of active screening in all scenarios and a reduction in passive detection rates and a delay or suspension of vector control deployments in some scenarios. Our results indicate that, even under the most extreme 21-month interruption scenario, EoT is not predicted to be delayed by more than one additional year compared to the length of the interruption. If existing vector control deployments continue, we predict no delay in achieving EoT even when both active and passive screening activities are interrupted. If passive screening remains as functional as in 2019, we expect a marginal negative impact on transmission, however this depends on the strength of passive screening in each health zone. We predict a pronounced increase in additional gHAT disease burden (morbidity and mortality) in many health zones if both active and passive screening were interrupted compared to the interruption of active screening alone. The ability to continue existing vector control during medical activity interruption is also predicted to avert a moderate proportion of disease burden.

Trypanosome spliced leader RNA for diagnosis of acoziborole treatment outcome in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis: A longitudinal follow-up study.

Detection of spliced leader (SL)-RNA allows sensitive diagnosis of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT). We investigated its diagnostic performance for treatment outcome assessment. Blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from a consecutive series of 97 HAT patients, originating from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, were prospectively collected before treatment with acoziborole, and during 18 months of longitudinal follow-up after treatment. For treatment outcome assessment, SL-RNA detection was compared with microscopic trypanosome detection and CSF white blood cell count. The trial was registered under NCT03112655 in clinicaltrials.gov. Before treatment, respectively 94.9% (92/97; CI 88.5-97.8%) and 67.7% (65/96; CI 57.8-76.2%) HAT patients were SL-RNA positive in blood or CSF. During follow-up, one patient relapsed with trypanosomes observed at 18 months, and was SL-RNA positive in blood and CSF at 12 months, and CSF positive at 18 months. Among cured patients, one individual tested SL-RNA positive in blood at month 12 (Specificity 98.9%; 90/91; CI 94.0-99.8%) and 18 (Specificity 98.9%; 88/89; CI 93.9-99.8%). SL-RNA detection for HAT treatment outcome assessment shows ≥98.9% specificity in blood and 100% in CSF, and may detect relapses without lumbar puncture. The DiTECT-HAT project is part of the EDCTP2 programme, supported by Horizon 2020, the European Union Funding for Research and Innovation (grant number DRIA-2014-306-DiTECT-HAT).

Recent progress in diagnosis and treatment of Human African Trypanosomiasis has made the elimination of this disease a realistic target by 2030.

Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) is caused by unicellular flagellated protozoan parasites of the genus Trypanosoma brucei. The subspecies T. b. gambiense is mainly responsible for mostly chronic anthroponotic infections in West- and Central Africa, accounting for roughly 95% of all HAT cases. Trypanosoma b. rhodesiense results in more acute zoonotic infections in East-Africa. Because HAT has a two-stage pathogenesis, treatment depends on clinical assessment of patients and the determination whether or not parasites have crossed the blood brain barrier. Today, ultimate confirmation of parasitemia is still done by microscopy analysis. However, the introduction of diagnostic lateral flow devices has been a major contributor to the recent dramatic drop in T. b. gambiense HAT. Other techniques such as loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) and recombinant polymerase amplification (RPA)-based tests have been published but are still not widely used in the field. Most recently, CRISPR-Cas technology has been proposed to improve the intrinsic diagnostic characteristics of molecular approaches. This will become crucial in the near future, as preventing the resurgence of HAT will be a priority and will require tools with extreme high positive and negative predicted values, as well as excellent sensitivity and specificity. As for treatment, pentamidine and suramin have historically been the drugs of choice for the treatment of blood-stage gambiense-HAT and rhodesiense-HAT, respectively. For treatment of second-stage infections, drugs that pass the blood brain barrier are needed, and melarsoprol has been effectively used for both forms of HAT in the past. However, due to the high occurrence of post-treatment encephalopathy, the drug is not recommended for use in T. b. gambiense HAT. Here, a combination therapy of eflornithine and nifurtimox (NECT) has been the choice of treatment since 2009. As this treatment requires IV perfusion of eflornithine, efforts were launched in 2003 by the drugs for neglected disease initiative (DNDi) to find an oral-only therapy solution, suitable for rural sub-Saharan Africa treatment conditions. In 2019 this resulted in the introduction of fexinidazole, with a treatment regimen suitable for both the blood-stage and non-severe second-stage T. b. gambiense infections. Experimental treatment of T. b. rhodesiense HAT has now been initiated as well.

Deep kinetoplast genome analyses result in a novel molecular assay for detecting Trypanosoma brucei gambiense-specific minicircles.

The World Health Organization targeted Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (Tbg) human African trypanosomiasis for elimination of transmission by 2030. Sensitive molecular markers that specifically detect Tbg type 1 (Tbg1) parasites will be important tools to assist in reaching this goal. We aim at improving molecular diagnosis of Tbg1 infections by targeting the abundant mitochondrial minicircles within the kinetoplast of these parasites. Using Next-Generation Sequencing of total cellular DNA extracts, we assembled and annotated the kinetoplast genome and investigated minicircle sequence diversity in 38 animal- and human-infective trypanosome strains. Computational analyses recognized a total of 241 Minicircle Sequence Classes as Tbg1-specific, of which three were shared by the 18 studied Tbg1 strains. We developed a minicircle-based assay that is applicable on animals and as specific as the TgsGP-based assay, the current golden standard for molecular detection of Tbg1. The median copy number of the targeted minicircle was equal to eight, suggesting our minicircle-based assay may be used for the sensitive detection of Tbg1 parasites. Annotation of the targeted minicircle sequence indicated that it encodes genes essential for the survival of the parasite and will thus likely be preserved in natural Tbg1 populations, the latter ensuring the reliability of our novel diagnostic assay.

Safety and efficacy of oral fexinidazole in children with gambiense human African trypanosomiasis: a multicentre, single-arm, open-label, phase 2–3 trial

SummaryBackgroundFexinidazole has been reported as an effective oral monotherapy against non-severe gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in a recent trial in adults. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of fexinidazole in children across all disease stages of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.MethodsWe did a multicentre, single-arm, open-label, phase 2–3 trial at eight district hospitals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We recruited children with a Karnofsky score of more than 50, those aged 6 years to younger than 15 years, weighing 20 kg or more, and with confirmed gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (any stage). Children weighing 20 kg or more and less than 35 kg received oral fexinidazole of 1200 mg (two × 600 mg tablets) once per day for 4 days (days 1–4) followed by 600 mg (one × 600 mg tablet) once per day for 6 days (days 5–10). Children weighing 35 kg or more received oral fexinidazole of 1800 mg (three × 600 mg tablets) once per day for 4 days (days 1–4), followed by 1200 mg (two × 600 mg tablets) once per day for 6 days (days 5–10). The primary endpoint was fexinidazole treatment success rate 12 months after end of treatment. A rate greater than 80% was deemed acceptable and a target value of 92% was aimed for. Safety was assessed through routine monitoring. This study is completed and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02184689.FindingsBetween May 3, 2014, and Nov 22, 2016, we screened a total of 130 paediatric patients, of whom 125 (96%) received at least one dose of fexinidazole. All 125 patients (69 [55%] patients with stage 1, 19 [15%] with early stage 2, and 37 [30%] with late stage 2 gambiense human African trypanosomiasis) completed the 10-day treatment. Treatment success rate at 12 months was 97·6% (95% CI 93·1–99·5; 122 of 125 patients). The primary endpoint was met and the targeted value of 92% was exceeded. Treatment success at 12 months was elevated across all disease stages: 98·6% (95% CI 92·2–99·9; 68 of 69 patients) in stage 1, 94·7% (74·0–99·9; 18 of 19 patients) in early stage 2, and 97·3% (85·8–99·9; 36 of 37 patients) in late stage 2 gambiense human African trypanosomiasis. No new safety issues were observed beyond those found in adult trials. Overall, 116 (93%) of 125 patients reported 586 treatment-emergent adverse events, mainly mild or moderate. The most frequently reported treatment-emergent adverse events of interest during hospital admission were vomiting (86 [69%] of 125) and headache (41 [33%]). Seven (6%) of 125 patients had severe malaria, which was often accompanied by anaemia that was unrelated to fexinidazole. One patient died following dyspnoea and injury due to traumatic aggression 172 days after end of treatment, which was considered unrelated to fexinidazole or gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.InterpretationOral fexinidazole is a safe and effective first-line treatment option across all gambiense human African trypanosomiasis disease stages in paediatric patients.FundingThrough the Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative: the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (USA), the Republic and Canton of Geneva (Switzerland), the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Netherlands), the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norway), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research through KfW (Germany), the Brian Mercer Charitable Trust (UK), and other private foundations and individuals from the human African trypanosomiasis campaign.TranslationFor the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis: the bumpy road to elimination.

Purpose of reviewGambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), a disease that has killed hundreds of thousands as recently as the 1990s, could be on the verge of elimination or even eradication. This review describes recent developments that give us reasons for optimism as well as some caveats.Recent findingsNew developments in diagnostic and vector control tools, and especially in treatment, make it possible to strive for elimination of transmission of gHAT by 2030, perhaps even eradication.SummaryGambiense human African trypanosomiasis is a deadly infectious disease affecting West and Central Africa, South Sudan and Uganda, and transmitted between humans by tsetse flies. The disease has caused several major epidemics, the latest one in the 1990s. Thanks to recent innovations such as rapid diagnostic tests for population screening, a single-dose oral treatment and a highly efficient vector control strategy, interruption of transmission of the causative parasite is now within reach. If indeed gHAT has an exclusively human reservoir, this could even result in eradication of the disease. Even if there were an animal reservoir, on the basis of epidemiological data, it plays a limited role. Maintaining adequate postelimination surveillance in known historic foci, using the newly developed tools, should be sufficient to prevent any future resurgence.

Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans by 2030. Whilst this ambitious goal is rapidly approaching, there remain fundamental questions about the presence of non-human animal transmission cycles and their potential role in slowing progress towards, or even preventing, EoT. In this study we focus on the country with the most gHAT disease burden, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and use mathematical modelling to assess whether animals may contribute to transmission in specific regions, and if so, how their presence could impact the likelihood and timing of EoT. By fitting two model variants-one with, and one without animal transmission-to the human case data from 2000-2016 we estimate model parameters for 158 endemic health zones of the DRC. We evaluate the statistical support for each model variant in each health zone and infer the contribution of animals to overall transmission and how this could impact predicted time to EoT. We conclude that there are 24/158 health zones where there is substantial to decisive statistical support for some animal transmission. However-even in these regions-we estimate that animals would be extremely unlikely to maintain transmission on their own. Animal transmission could hamper progress towards EoT in some settings, with projections under continuing interventions indicating that the number of health zones expected to achieve EoT by 2030 reduces from 68/158 to 61/158 if animal transmission is included in the model. With supplementary vector control (at a modest 60% tsetse reduction) added to medical screening and treatment interventions, the predicted number of health zones meeting the goal increases to 147/158 for the model including animal transmission. This is due to the impact of vector reduction on transmission to and from all hosts.

Mental distress and health-related quality of life in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis: a case-control study in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The extent to which neuropsychiatric sequelae affects the mental health status and quality of life of former gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) patients is not known. We assessed anxiety, depression and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in 93 patients and their age- and sex-matched controls using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Becks Depression Inventory and the 36-item Short Form Health Survey in structured interviews in the Vanga health zone in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Data were analysed using Stata version 14.0. The degree of association between neurologic sequelae and mental distress was evaluated using the Student's t-test and χ2 or Fisher's exact tests, where appropriate, with a p-value <0.05 deemed to be statistically significant. We found that neurological sequelae persisted in former patients at least 15y after treatment. Depression (p<0.001) and anxiety (p=0.001) were significantly higher in former patients with neurologic sequelae. The mean quality-of-life (QoL) scores were significantly lower for patients than in controls in the physical, emotional and mental health domains. The presence of neurological sequelae leads to mental distress and a diminished QoL in former gHAT patients.Minimising neurologic sequelae and incorporating psychosocial interventions should be essential management goals for gHAT.

Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling of Eflornithine-Based Treatments Against Late-Stage Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis and Efficacy Predictions of L-eflornithine-Based Therapy

Eflornithine is a recommended treatment against late-stage gambiense human African trypanosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease. Standard dosing of eflornithine consists of repeated intravenous infusions of a racemic mixture of L- and D-eflornithine. Data from three clinical studies, (i) eflornithine intravenous monotherapy, (ii) nifurtimox-eflornithine combination therapy, and (iii) eflornithine oral monotherapy, were pooled and analyzed using a time-to-event pharmacodynamic modeling approach, supported by in vitro activity data of the individual enantiomers. Our aim was to assess (i) the efficacy of the eflornithine regimens in a time-to-event analysis and (ii) the feasibility of an L-eflornithine-based therapy integrating clinical and preclinical data. A pharmacodynamic time-to-event model was used to estimate the total dose of eflornithine, associated with 50% reduction in baseline hazard, when administered as monotherapy or in the nifurtimox-eflornithine combination therapy. The estimated total doses were 159, 60 and 291 g for intravenous eflornithine monotherapy, nifurtimox-eflornithine combination therapy and oral eflornithine monotherapy, respectively. Simulations suggested that L-eflornithine achieves a higher predicted median survival, compared to when racemate is administered, as treatment against late-stage gambiense human African trypanosomiasis. Our findings showed that oral L-eflornithine-based monotherapy would not result in adequate efficacy, even at high dose, and warrants further investigations to assess the potential of oral L-eflornithine-based treatment in combination with other treatments such as nifurtimox. An all-oral eflornithine-based regimen would provide easier access to treatment and reduce burden on patients and healthcare systems in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis endemic areas.Graphical abstract

Identifying regions for enhanced control of gambiense sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness, gHAT) is a disease targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030. While annual new cases are at a historical minimum, the likelihood of achieving the target is unknown. We utilised modelling to study the impacts of four strategies using currently available interventions, including active and passive screening and vector control, on disease burden and transmission across 168 endemic health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Median projected years of elimination of transmission show only 98 health zones are on track despite significant reduction in disease burden under medical-only strategies (64 health zones if > 90% certainty required). Blanket coverage with vector control is impractical, but is predicted to reach the target in all heath zones. Utilising projected disease burden under the uniform medical-only strategy, we provide a priority list of health zones for consideration for supplementary vector control alongside medical interventions.

Cost-effectiveness of sleeping sickness elimination campaigns in five settings of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is marked for elimination of transmission by 2030, but the disease persists in several low-income countries. We couple transmission and health outcomes models to examine the cost-effectiveness of four gHAT elimination strategies in five settings – spanning low- to high-risk – of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Alongside passive screening in fixed health facilities, the strategies include active screening at average or intensified coverage levels, alone or with vector control with a scale-back algorithm when no cases are reported for three consecutive years. In high or moderate-risk settings, costs of gHAT strategies are primarily driven by active screening and, if used, vector control. Due to the cessation of active screening and vector control, most investments (75-80%) are made by 2030 and vector control might be cost-saving while ensuring elimination of transmission. In low-risk settings, costs are driven by passive screening, and minimum-cost strategies consisting of active screening and passive screening lead to elimination of transmission by 2030 with high probability.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases.

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad

BackgroundIn recent years, a programme of vector control, screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of Chad. To represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse, we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model, fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by 2015. The present study outlines refinements to the model to: (1) Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting; (2) quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction; and (3) predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different strategies.MethodOur previous gHAT transmission model for Mandoul was updated using human case data (2000–2019) and a series of model refinements. These include how diagnostic specificity is incorporated into the model and improvements to the fitting method (increased variance in observed case reporting and how underreporting and improvements to passive screening are captured). A side-by-side comparison of fitting to case data was performed between the models.ResultsWe estimated that passive detection rates have increased due to improvements in diagnostic availability in fixed health facilities since 2015, by 2.1-fold for stage 1 detection, and 1.5-fold for stage 2. We find that whilst the diagnostic algorithm for active screening is estimated to be highly specific (95% credible interval (CI) 99.9–100%, Specificity = 99.9%), the high screening and low infection levels mean that some recently reported cases with no parasitological confirmation might be false positives. We also find that the focus-wide tsetse reduction estimated through model fitting (95% CI 96.1–99.6%, Reduction = 99.1%) is comparable to the reduction previously measured by the decline in tsetse catches from monitoring traps. In line with previous results, the model suggests that transmission was interrupted in 2015 due to intensified interventions.ConclusionsWe recommend that additional confirmatory testing is performed in Mandoul to ensure the endgame can be carefully monitored. More specific measurement of cases, would better inform when it is safe to stop active screening and vector control, provided there is a strong passive surveillance system in place.Graphical