Future Vulnerability Assessments Research Articles

A multi-sector causal network of urban heat vulnerability coupling with mitigation

As a vital component of urban heat risk, the vulnerability of exposed elements must be assessed before further impact prediction and strategy implementation. In previous studies, heat vulnerability was commonly defined as the tendency to be adversely affected by an extremely high temperature from both physical and social perspectives. However, it cannot explain what the adverse effects are. Also, the decision-making of mitigation strategies was often regarded as an individual section, lacking a combination of heat vulnerability. This paper established a qualitative multi-sector network by discovering existing cause-effect within indicators related to heat vulnerability, extending the concept of vulnerability. It identified what makes population and urban elements vulnerable to urban heat from the view of the effects they trigger. Besides the physical and social sectors of demographic, urban elements and exposure, three essential but frequently ignored effect sectors - emissions, human health, and economy - were also included in the causal network. Based on a new classification of mitigation strategies, they could connect with vulnerability indicators in multi-sectors, forming causal chains from intervention to their profound effects. A discussion of the network's future implementation was conducted in the end, prospecting the potential of a combination with the vulnerability assessment. This paper uncovers that future vulnerability assessments should include productivity as an indicator to show the adverse impact of high temperature on the economy. It also shows that different mitigation strategies can intervene in heat vulnerability assessment through all cause sectors, the sector of exposure, and the sector of emissions.

45. COVID-19 Vulnerability and Data Reporting in Africa: Reflections from Cameroon

Abstract Background At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic there were many questions about vulnerability and data reporting among African countries. We previously found that policymakers in Cameroon value region-specific risk maps for emerging diseases. Therefore, we created regional vulnerability indices for COVID-19 in Cameroon. As the pandemic grew, we aimed to compare how these predictions related to reported COVID-19 cases in Cameroon and whether additional African countries had available data to assess vulnerability for COVID-19. Methods Using data from the Cameroon 2018 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), we had constructed an epidemiological vulnerability index based on comorbidities potentially associated with COVID-19 severity. Similarly, we had created a healthcare access index. We then compared these indices with regional COVID-19 cases per population from weekly situation reports in Cameroon. Finally, we identified the availability of DHS data and COVID-19 reporting systems in other African countries. Vulnerability Indices for COVID-19 in Cameroon The epidemiological and healthcare access vulnerability indices constructed for Cameroon are shown along with COVID-19 cases per population. Results Adjusting for data reporting limitations, regions in Cameroon that scored higher on the epidemiological vulnerability index were associated with greater COVID-19 cases per population. We also identified regions with mismatches between high epidemiological vulnerability and low healthcare access. COVID-19 data reporting systems varied among African countries. 29/54 (53.7%) of African countries had recurrent situation reports or online dashboards with subnational COVID-19 data in 2020. Meanwhile, 36/54 (66.7%) of African countries had DHS data reported in the last decade. Conclusion We found that vulnerability indices could be a rapid way of identifying populations at risk for emerging diseases such as COVID-19. This method could be used in other countries that have both recent health surveys from programs such as the DHS and subnational reporting of COVID-19 cases. Indices could be useful for decision-making, but they will need to be refined with national expert input. National situation reports and online dashboards provided subnational COVID-19 data in approximately half of African countries. Therefore, increased baseline health surveys as well as expanded reporting of COVID-19 case data could inform future vulnerability assessments in other countries. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

Contrasting climate velocity impacts in warm and cool locations show that effects of marine warming are worse in already warmer temperate waters

AbstractSpecies responses to climate change are often measured at broad spatiotemporal scales, which can miss the fine‐scale changes that are most relevant to conservation and fisheries management. We develop a scaleable geostatistical approach to assess how juvenile and adult fish distributions have been shaped by changes in bottom temperature and dissolved oxygen over a recent decade of warming in the northeast Pacific. Across 38 demersal fishes, biomass trends were associated negatively with warming and positively with dissolved oxygen, but when trends in both biomass and climate were converted to velocities—the speed and direction a population would have to move to maintain consistent conditions—the effect of temperature change differed depending on local conditions. In the warmest locations, warming velocities were associated with negative biotic velocities for 19 of 69 species‐maturity combinations, and yet were almost always associated with stable or positive biotic velocities in the coolest locations (64 of 69). These spatially consistent biomass declines (negative biotic velocities) in the warmest locations and increases in cooler locations suggest a redistribution of species with the potential for new ecological and fisheries interactions. After controlling for temperature, the more spatially consistent effects of dissolved oxygen were often negative, suggesting a mechanism other than hypoxia avoidance—potentially changes in primary production. Our approach identifies the species and locations that are most sensitive to observed changes in the environment at any scale, thus facilitating future vulnerability assessments.

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the City Scale to Inform Future Vulnerability Assessments — The Case of Boston, Massachusetts

Climate change will impact cities’ infrastructure and urban dwellers, who often show differentiated capacity to cope with climate-related hazards. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are part of an emerging research field which uses global socioeconomic and climate scenarios, developed by the climate change research community, to explore how different socioeconomic pathways will influence future society’s ability to cope with climate change. While the SSPs have been extensively used at the global scale, their use at the local and urban scale has remained rare, as they first need to be contextualized and extended for the particular place of interest. In this study, we present and apply a method to develop multi-scale extended SSPs at the city and neighborhood scale. Using Boston, Massachusetts, as a case study, we combined scenario matching, experts’ elicitation, and participatory processes to contextualize and make the global SSPs relevant at the urban scale. We subsequently employed the extended SSPs to explore future neighborhood-level vulnerability to extreme heat under multiple plausible socioeconomic trajectories, highlighting the usefulness of extended SSPs in informing future vulnerability assessments. The large differences in outcomes hint at the enormous potential of risk reduction that social and urban planning policies could trigger in the next decades.

Evaluating sea-level rise vulnerability assessments in the USA

Many coastal communities around the world are increasingly faced with pressure from sea level rise (SLR). Adapting to the impacts of SLR is now considered inevitable. Many coastal communities in the USA have started to invest in vulnerability assessments that seek to identify the degree of future risk induced by SLR and key vulnerable sectors as well as to provide a sound factual basis for designing and implementing adaptations. However, no study has systematically analyzed the content of these emerging assessments and their quality. This study aims to address this gap by evaluating 64 SLR vulnerability assessments in the USA using an established multi-criteria evaluation framework and by identifying governance factors that affect assessment quality. This study is the first baseline study to understand how the vulnerability of SLR has been assessed by US governments and, more importantly, shed light on pathways for their future improvement. Our analysis finds that the content and quality of the existing assessments vary widely. One-sided assessments that only consider physical exposure are common, and most assessments do not include plans for adaptations. The wealth of the area, amount of funding, mainstreaming efforts, and public awareness are all positively correlated with the assessment quality. We also find that assessments primarily authored by planning staff are lower in quality than those conducted through collaboration. Our findings offer comparative, empirical knowledge for urban planners and coastal managers to improve future vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for SLR.

A multiscale natural community and species-level vulnerability assessment of the Gulf Coast, USA.

Vulnerability assessments combine quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species or natural communities to current and future threats. When combined with the economic, ecological or evolutionary value of the species, vulnerability assessments quantify the relative risk to regional species and natural communities and can enable informed prioritization of conservation efforts. Vulnerability assessments are common practice in conservation biology, including the potential impacts of future climate scenarios. However, geographic variation in scenarios and vulnerabilities is rarely quantified. This gap is particularly limiting for informing ecosystem management given that conservation practices typically vary by sociopolitical boundaries rather than by ecological boundaries. To support prioritization of conservation actions across a range of spatial scales, we conducted the Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA) for four natural communities and eleven focal species around the Gulf of Mexico based on current and future threats from climate change and land-use practices out to 2060. We used the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value (SIVVA) tool to assess both natural community and species vulnerabilities. We observed greater variation across ecologically delineated subregions within the Gulf Coast of the U.S. than across climate scenarios. This novel finding suggests that future vulnerability assessments incorporate regional variation and that conservation prioritization may vary across ecological subregions. Across subregions and climate scenarios the most prominent threats were legacy effects, primarily from habitat loss and degradation, that compromised the adaptive capacity of species and natural communities. The second most important threats were future threats from sea-level rise. Our results suggest that the substantial threats species and natural communities face from climate change and sea-level rise would be within their adaptive capacity were it not for historic habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation.

Predicted impacts of climate warming on aerobic performance and upper thermal tolerance of six tropical freshwater fishes spanning three continents.

Equatorial fishes, and the critically important fisheries based on them, are thought to be at-risk from climate warming because the fishes have evolved in a relatively aseasonal environment and possess narrow thermal tolerance windows that are close to upper thermal limits. We assessed survival, growth, aerobic performance and critical thermal maxima (CTmax) following acute and 21 d exposures to temperatures up to 4°C higher than current maxima for six species of freshwater fishes indigenous to tropical countries and of importance for human consumption. All six species showed 1.3–1.7°C increases in CTmax with a 4°C rise in acclimation temperature, values which match up well with fishes from other climatic regions, and five species had survival >87% at all temperatures over the treatment period. Specific growth rates varied among and within each species in response to temperature treatments. For all species, the response of resting metabolic rate (RMR) was consistently more dynamic than for maximum metabolic rate, but in general both acute temperature exposure and thermal acclimation had only modest effects on aerobic scope (AS). However, RMR increased after warm acclimation in 5 of 6 species, suggesting incomplete metabolic compensation. Taken in total, our results show that each species had some ability to perform at temperatures up to 4°C above current maxima, yet also displayed certain areas of concern for their long-term welfare. We therefore suggest caution against the overly broad generalization that all tropical freshwater fish species will face severe challenges from warming temperatures in the coming decades and that future vulnerability assessments should integrate multiple performance metrics as opposed to relying on a single response metric. Given the societal significance of inland fisheries in many parts of the tropics, our results clearly demonstrate the need for more species-specific studies of adaptive capacity to climate change-related challenges.

Vulnerability of global food production to extreme climatic events

It is known that the frequency, intensity or duration of the extreme climatic events have been changing substantially. The ultimate goal of this study was to identify current vulnerabilities of global primary food production against extreme climatic events, and to discuss potential entry points for adaptation planning by means of an explorative vulnerability analysis. Outcomes of this analysis were demonstrated as a composite index where 118 country performances in maintaining safety of food production were compared and ranked against climate change. In order to better interpret the results, cluster analysis technique was used as a tool to group the countries based on their vulnerability index (VI) scores. Results suggested that one sixth of the countries analyzed were subject to high level of exposure (0.45–1), one third to high to very high level of sensitivity (0.41–1) and low to moderate level of adaptive capacity (0–0.59). Proper adaptation strategies for reducing the microbial and chemical contamination of food products, soil and waters on the field were proposed. Finally, availability of data on food safety management systems and occurrence of foodborne outbreaks with global coverage were proposed as key factors for improving the robustness of future vulnerability assessments.

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.

Farmers’ Adaptation to Climate Variability: Assessment of Effectiveness and Barriers Based on Local Experience in Southern Philippines

This study assessed the effectiveness of and barriers to adaptation of upland farming households in Bukidnon Province, Southern Philippines to climate variability. Using focus group discussions, key informant interviews and household surveys combined with the analysis of climate variability in the area, the study described key adaptation strategies commonly practiced at the household and community levels in relation to crop production and income generation, domestic and farm water supply, soil conservation, health and livelihood; and assessed the effectiveness and barriers in the implementation of these strategies. There were few variations in adaptation strategies across different crops grown by farmers. While few ineffective adaptation strategies were noted, current strategies were perceived to be generally effective although some barriers exist in their implementation. Among these barriers include high cost, limited adaptation options, and difficulty in implementation. Despite the perceived effectiveness, future uncertainty is a major concern since climate variability is likely to worsen, threatening health, food and livelihood security. Planned adaptation founded on robust current and future vulnerability assessments is necessary to address the future risks associated with the changing climate. Moreover, to realize effective farmers’ adaptation to future climate change impacts, the anticipated critical adaptation barriers should be successfully overcome.

Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

This paper presents structured and cost-effective methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of at-risk communities to the range of volcanic hazards, developed as part of the MIA-VITA project (2009–2012). An initial assessment of building and infrastructure vulnerability has been carried out for a set of broadly defined building types and infrastructure categories, with the likelihood of damage considered separately for projectile impact, ash fall loading, pyroclastic density current dynamic pressure and earthquake ground shaking intensities. In refining these estimates for two case study areas: Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines and Fogo volcano in Cape Verde, we have developed guidelines and methodologies for carrying out physical vulnerability assessments in the field. These include identifying primary building characteristics, such as construction material and method, as well as subsidiary characteristics, for example the size and prevalence of openings, that may be important in assessing eruption impacts. At-risk buildings around Kanlaon were found to be dominated by timber frame buildings that exhibit a high vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents, but a low vulnerability to failure from seismic shaking. Around Fogo, the predominance of unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slab roofs suggests a high vulnerability to volcanic earthquake but a low vulnerability to ash fall loading. Given the importance of agriculture for local livelihoods around Kanlaon and Fogo, we discuss the potential impact of infrastructure vulnerability for local agricultural economies, with implications for volcanic areas worldwide. These methodologies and tools go some way towards offering a standardised approach to carrying out future vulnerability assessments for populated volcanic areas.

Data Related Uncertainty in Near‐Surface Vulnerability Assessments for Agrochemicals in the San Joaquin Valley

Precious groundwater resources across the United States have been contaminated due to decades-long nonpoint-source applications of agricultural chemicals. Assessing the impact of past, ongoing, and future chemical applications for large-scale agriculture operations is timely for designing best-management practices to prevent subsurface pollution. Presented here are the results from a series of regional-scale vulnerability assessments for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Two relatively simple indices, the retardation and attenuation factors, are used to estimate near-surface vulnerabilities based on the chemical properties of 32 pesticides and the variability of both soil characteristics and recharge rates across the SJV. The uncertainties inherit to these assessments, derived from the uncertainties within the chemical and soil data bases, are estimated using first-order analyses. The results are used to screen and rank the chemicals based on mobility and leaching potential, without and with consideration of data-related uncertainties. Chemicals of historic high visibility in the SJV (e.g., atrazine, DBCP [dibromochloropropane], ethylene dibromide, and simazine) are ranked in the top half of those considered. Vulnerability maps generated for atrazine and DBCP, featured for their legacy status in the study area, clearly illustrate variations within and across the assessments. For example, the leaching potential is greater for DBCP than for atrazine, the leaching potential for DBCP is greater for the spatially variable recharge values than for the average recharge rate, and the leaching potentials for both DBCP and atrazine are greater for the annual recharge estimates than for the monthly recharge estimates. The data-related uncertainties identified in this study can be significant, targeting opportunities for improving future vulnerability assessments.