Future Urbanization Research Articles

Large disagreements in estimates of urban land across scales and their implications

Improvements in high-resolution satellite remote sensing and computational advancements have sped up the development of global datasets that delineate urban land, crucial for understanding climate risks in our increasingly urbanizing world. Here, we analyze urban land cover patterns across spatiotemporal scales from several such current-generation products. While all the datasets show a rapidly urbanizing world, with global urban land nearly tripling between 1985 and 2015, there are substantial discrepancies in urban land area estimates among the products influenced by scale, differing urban definitions, and methodologies. We discuss the implications of these discrepancies for several use cases, including for monitoring urban climate hazards and for modeling urbanization-induced impacts on weather and climate from regional to global scales. Our results demonstrate the importance of choosing fit-for-purpose datasets for examining specific aspects of historical, present, and future urbanization with implications for sustainable development, resource allocation, and quantification of climate impacts.

Exploring the paradox of densification and greening in China’ s old cities

Urban densification is widely regarded as a key strategy for curbing urban sprawl and optimizing resource efficiency. However, it still threatens urban greenspaces by altering the original land use. The imperative to preserve and restore urban greenspaces has gained increased attention, aligning with the global spotlight on urban resilience. This prompts the crucial question: How will urban densification impact urban greening? Focusing on the old city areas of 159 cities with over one million population in China, we depicted the dynamics of urban greenness using remote sensing data and explored greening trends under urban densification on both horizontal and vertical scales by generalized additive model (GAM). The findings are as follows: (1) As urban horizontal density increased from 68.4 % to 93.1 %, a significant U-shaped trend in urban greenness emerged within the old city areas over the past three decades. Notably, 80 % of these cities experienced turning points before 2010. (2) Almost half of the cities have recovered the urban greenness to 30 years ago, with a growth of 6.58 % on average. While urban densification led to a loss of greenness (-0.0197±0.0182), urban greenspaces countered this with a gain of 0.0049±0.0075, and the original built-up area contributed a gain of 0.0027±0.0284. (3) We decomposed urban densification into horizontal and vertical growth. The horizontal growth coincides with the greenness loss initially, but the rebound occurs when the horizontal density approaches 83 %. Vertical growth, on the other hand, is negatively correlated with urban greenness. Our study depicts the turning point of urban greening in old city areas unveiling the ecological effect of urban densification, which provides a reference for the sustainable development of future urbanization.

Urbanization-Induced Land Use Dynamics and Its Impacts on Present and Future Urban Ecosystem Services in the Industrial Cities of India

Urbanization-Induced Land Use Dynamics and Its Impacts on Present and Future Urban Ecosystem Services in the Industrial Cities of India

Migration across the urban hierarchy: Has China’s urbanisation transitioned from the primate city stage to the secondary city stage?

The population density in megacities in China gives rise to challenges, such as traffic congestion and soaring housing prices. A trend of leaving primate cities can be observed as well as a population increase in secondary cities. These trends might point to an urbanisation transition from the primate city stage to the secondary city stage. Research is needed to determine at which stage of urbanisation China currently resides, and who are migrating across the different levels of cities in this stage. In order to answer these questions, the current study combines the theory of differential urbanisation and migrant selectivity, and analyses city-level migration patterns and demographic characteristics of migrants across the urban hierarchy. The findings indicate that China is currently in the intermediate primate city stage, where the upward migration across the urban hierarchy is driven by younger adults with higher education and income, and a lower likelihood of marriage or parenthood. Building upon global evidence, this research further extends the theory of differential urbanisation by incorporating migrant selectivity into the interpretation of urbanisation stages. It reveals that educated migrants tend to concentrate and move up the urban hierarchy in the primate city stage but might deconcentrate during the secondary and small city stages. This study offers practical insights for policymakers at the national and city levels to develop population growth plans, adjust targeted migration policies and respond to future urbanisation processes.

Investigating the Impact of Recent and Future Urbanization on Flooding in an Indian River Catchment

Socioeconomic growth in India has caused massive infrastructure development which has resulted in extensive damage to the natural environment. A consequence of this urbanization has been extensive monsoon flooding in many locations within the country. The impact of recent land use and land cover (LULC) change because of urbanization and a series of future LULC scenarios is assessed for the Meenachil river basin in central Kerala, India. This catchment flows into the Kuttanad administrative area, which has the country’s lowest elevation, an increasing population, and currently suffers from regular flooding. Hydrological modeling using SHETRAN and hydraulic modeling using HEC-RAS predicts that an extreme event will produce a 105% rise in flood depth in 2100 compared to 2005. A scenario that incorporates Nature-based Solutions suggests the rise in flood depth could be reduced by 44%. A catchment response for future development is needed but is hindered by different administrative boundaries within the river basins that flow into the Kuttanad administrative area, and so this study concludes by providing regional-scale planning recommendations that integrate hydrologic components.

Construction and Optimization Strategy of Ecological Security Pattern in County-Level Cities under Spatial and Temporal Variation of Ecosystem Services: Case Study of Mianzhu, China

Climate change and human activities are seriously affecting the ecological level and economic development of county-level cities. Mianzhu City is a typical county-level city located within the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The study selected primary ecological sources by analyzing high-level ecosystem service functions over time, using Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA). Ecological resistance surfaces were constructed using natural factors to address ecological risks associated with future urbanization. The construction of the ecological security pattern (ESP) followed the source–corridor–node paradigm, incorporating changes in ecosystem service risks. From 2010 to 2020, ecosystem service functions and values in Mianzhu City declined overall, with significant spatial variations. Human activities increased in ecologically fragile areas, aggravating exposure to ecological risks from climate change and urban expansion. Ecological protection and restoration zones were identified, with nature reserves in the north and the southern center as the core. In 2020, 19 ecological sources and 46 ecological corridors were identified, with a spatial distribution pattern of “more length and short resistance in the north, less length and long resistance in the south”. Additionally, 41 ecological pinch points and 16 ecological barrier points were determined. Considering the spatial distribution of the core areas of ecosystem services and lands with human-intensive activities, setting up the general idea of the ecological restoration pattern centered on forests, river corridors, and natural and artificial landscapes. The study provides new insights into constructing and optimizing the ESP, offering crucial references for the rapid urbanization of ecological restoration and development planning in urban regions.

Effects of urbanization and deforestation on flooding: Case study of Cap‐Haïtien City, Haiti

AbstractCap‐Haïtien, the second largest city in Haiti, is highly vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides, and flooding. The rapid pace of urbanization and deforestation has exacerbated the risk of flooding, resulting in disasters in November 2012, 2016, and 2022. This study aims to assess the impact of urbanization and deforestation on river flooding in Cap‐Haïtien by applying the hydrological model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the hydrodynamic model Sobek‐Rural. We examined the current situation and a scenario of future urbanization and deforestation. Urbanization and deforestation are found to play a pivotal role in the production and deposition of sediment along the lower Haut‐du‐Cap River reaches. The existing hydraulic capacity of the river and its drainage system cannot handle the estimated peak flows. The mountain ravines west of the city are found to be the primary source of sediment‐laden flash floods. We recommend retention basins, drainage extensions, and pragmatic public policies to mitigate flood risk. Comprehensive strategies are needed to address the detrimental effects of urbanization and deforestation on flooding in Cap‐Haïtien and similar regions where a lack of water governance has worsened the flooding alongside urbanization and deforestation. We generalize our experiences from Cap‐Haïtien into a broader framework for data‐scarce areas.

Local planning scenario for shading from trees as an urban nature-based solution

With more than 75% of the European Union’s population living in urban areas covering 21.5% of the EU territory, the importance of climate-resilient cities, towns and suburbs has increased dramatically. However, the rising impact of human-induced land-use changes on ecosystem services (ES) poses a major challenge to the urban environment. This study focuses on scenario development for nature-based solutions (NbS) in a European town with its intense development area. The concept is exemplified in a town in Croatia, Grad Velika Gorica (GVG), that like many others cities undergoes urbanisation processes with limited resources. It serves as a showpiece for the influence of NbS, in particular street trees along various paths.Using spatial analysis and modelling, the approach explores NbS for future urbanisation. The results, supported by quantitative analysis, show that 49% of cycle lanes and footpaths in GVG can be shaded by strategically planted street trees. The shading scenario analysis provides a nuanced perspective on the potential of NbS, offering insights into the key tasks for a climate-resilient city and opportunities towards equitable, green and healthy urban areas.In the context of urbanisation processes and climate adaptation, the study is in line with the overarching objectives of the European Commission which emphasises the need for sustainable NbS alternatives to address environmental challenges. The findings contribute to the framework of informed decision-making towards urban climate resilience. It also supports the pursuit of a sustainable local governance for climate-adjusted environmental quality in urban planning. As towns and cities grapple with the imperative of balancing urban development with environmental protection, this research highlights the central role of NbS, particularly street trees, in shaping climate-resilient and more sustainable urban environments for human well-being in cities.

ASSESSMENT OF THE SPATIAL APPROPRIATENESS OF THE FUTURE URBANIZATION OF THE CITY OF (AIN BEIDA, ALGERIA) USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS, THE ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS, AND THE DELPHI METHOD

Spatial adequacy evaluation is a valuable tool for planning land use strategies. It provides planners with data and outcomes that can help them make informed decisions to ensure effective and secure utilization of land in future urbanization processes. The objective of this study is to analyze the urbanization patterns in the city of Ain El Beida to determine the most appropriate areas for urban development. The aim is to create self-sustaining growth centers that effectively support the city, while also helping decision-makers address current expansions and protect agricultural lands. The study utilized spatial analysis methodology to evaluate and map the suitability of expanding the city's future space. It proposed an integration strategy that combined modern methods and techniques of the Delphi methodology to establish criteria for appropriate land use. The influence of these criteria will be analyzed spatially by administering a questionnaire to a sample of specialists in urban planning and city geography, followed by the application of spatial analyst techniques. The user's text is straightforward and precise. within the GIS framework, integrated via the analytic hierarchy approach. The user's text is straightforward and precise. To evaluate the suitability of the spatial location, to determine the significance of the factors influencing the expansion process based on their relative importance, to ensure that the desired goals are achieved in a way that reflects the priority of the decision-making criteria, and to identify the most favorable options for urban development in the study area. The findings indicated that the optimal locations for the urban growth of Ein El-Baida were determined to be 239.57 hectares, which accounts for 26.31 per cent of the entire land area under investigation. These areas are situated on the northern side of the city along National Road 80 (Ain Beida Presh) and on the western side along National Road 10 (Oum el-Bouaghi Ain Beida). These locations have been identified as the most suitable areas for spatial expansion due to their numerous incentives for urban attraction. Firstly, there is a considerable distance from the fertile and generously compensated agricultural areas, which offer unoccupied and level terrain, as well as its proximity to the central area of the pristine city of Ein. The study also determined that integrating GIS with hierarchy is crucial for constructing spatial models that accurately represent physical reality through mathematical means. This integration aids planners in selecting the most appropriate alternatives for urbanization and achieving comprehensive development of the city.

Always growing? Mapping population change in urban China for 2010-2020

The geographic assessment of population changes provides fundamental insights into understanding urban development and addressing future urbanization challenges. In this graphic, we produced a Dorling cartogram to geo-visualize population changes at the city level across China between 2010 and 2020. The cartogram illustrates how internal migration fuels China’s growing population concentration and regional disparity, leading to significant population loss in lower administrative-level cities and escalating intercity imbalances across the country.

Effect of land cover pattern on rainfall during a landfalling typhoon: A simulation of Typhoon Hato

The impact of urbanization on weather events has received increasing attention. Taking Typhoon Hato as an example, the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on typhoon landfall and sequential rainfall is quantified in this study. A numerical model is first built based on the Weather Research and Forecast model. Then, the model is validated, the performance of parameters for the different meteorological and microphysical processes is assessed and a set of optimal parameters are selected. After that, the responses of typhoon and the corresponding rainfall to land cover patterns under three conditions of no urbanization, current urbanization and future urbanization in Pearl River Delta are simulated and compared. Verification experiments show that it is necessary to consider the microphysical process to enhance the accuracy of typhoon simulation. The dramatic change of land cover has limited influence on typhoon tracks. However, the urbanized land surface promotes typhoon rainfall significantly. The hourly rainfall rate under the urbanization condition is about double that under the no urbanization condition. With the intensifying urbanization in the future, the maximum hourly rainfall rate will increase by 21%. The urban heat island effect almost disappears as Typhoon Hato approaches the inland region, and the urban dynamic effect plays an important role in typhoon rainfall. The intensified rainfall is related to the retention of typhoon caused by rough surface of the city. The wind speed under the condition of no urbanization is in general 2 m/s greater than that under the urbanization condition. The increase in surface roughness reduces the typhoon movement speed and more rainfall is generated. With the development of urbanization, intensified rainfall at typhoon landfall needs to be paid more attention to.

Residential Rooftop Urban Agriculture: Architectural Design Recommendations

It is evident that, due to population growth, future urbanization and urban growth are inevitable. It is estimated that the food supply demand of future urban centers will grow, which will place an additional burden on the agriculture sector to produce more food. It is projected that securing the food supply chain for future urban centers will be a challenge. Urban agriculture can be regarded as a remedy for possible future challenges that the global food system will face. It might be able to reduce the future burden on the agriculture sector. This research proposes that urban rooftop agriculture, as a subset of urban agriculture, can produce local fresh food in dense urban environments. The principal aim of this research is to suggest a series of design recommendations for architects interested in designing residential buildings capable of rooftop food production. This research attempts to highlight the specific design recommendations and the principal limitations regarding designing residential rooftop farms. To extract the data for developing the proposed design recommendations and limitations, a review of the literature within the fields of urban agriculture, building-integrated agriculture, and horticulture was conducted. Based on the literature review results, this research suggests that the following three types of farming methods can be developed on residential rooftops: (1) open-air rooftop food production, (2) “low-tech” rooftop greenhouses, and (3) “high-tech” rooftop greenhouses. In addition, factors that can be considered principal limitations are suggested. In sum, this research proposes that current and future residential buildings can be designed so that their rooftops are utilized as farms. In this way, such buildings can contribute to delivering local fresh food to current and future metropolitan dwellers.

The impact of urban integration on the intention of settlement and residence among migrants: The empirical evidence from China

Promoting urban integration is the key to improving the efficiency of labor allocation in developing countries and promoting coordinated regional development. Using the data of the migrants' observation sample in 2012–2017 released by China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this paper draws on theories related to urban integration and labor migration to study the urban integration status, intention of settlement and residence in China's agricultural household labor force in depth, as well as the correlation between the two. The study finds a significant decline in the intention of settlement and a gradual increase in the intention of residence among the migrants. The empirical regressions suggest that good urban integration, especially psychological integration, mainly contributes to their intention of settlement and residence, while the intention of residence is also more influenced by the social and economic integration dimensions. The mediating effect tests reveal that income level and housing stability are key pathways to economic integration, public medical participation and accessibility to medical services are key pathways to health integration, social status and local attachment are key pathways to social integration, and identity affiliation and psychological assimilation are key pathways to psychological integration. Future urbanization in developing countries requires not only further reform of the household registration system but also government, business, and social organizations at all levels to reduce the difficulties of urban integration in economic, health, social, and psychological aspects, enhance the degree of urban integration of the migrants, increase the intention of the migrants to settle and stay in different places and avoid the "migratory bird" migration of labor between regions. The "migratory bird" migration between regions is avoided.

Impact of urbanization and temperature on local abundance of Drosophila repleta Wollaston (1858) in the Western Himalayas

With rising global temperatures and expanding urbanization, rapid species abundance shifts and local extinctions may occur. We have observed a notable increase in the local population of Drosophila repleta, a species adapted to warmer environments, which was never documented at higher altitudes in the Western Himalayas before 2003. This change can be attributed to the recent acceleration of urbanization and the effects of climate change. To understand the species' response to temperature variations, we conducted a comparison of life-history traits at two different temperatures: 17 °C and 25 °C. These temperatures were chosen to simulate the variations experienced in 2003 and 2017, respectively. Our findings revealed a significant decrease in trait values at 17 °C, indicating a lower evolutionary capacity for adapting to colder and drier habitats. Additionally, we simultaneously examined the performance of life-history traits in response to different food resources, which corresponded to the levels of urbanization (carbohydrate-rich vs. protein-rich). The results showed a significant increase in fecundity, viability, and the percentage of adult emergence in flies reared on protein-rich food. This suggests that D. repleta possesses the ability to survive by utilizing the available food resources in the newly urbanized habitats. Considering the projected rise in global temperatures and further urbanization in the near future, D. repleta is likely to become even more abundant in urban environments. However, this could potentially pose a health risk due to the species' ability to transmit disease-causing organisms.

Groundwater potentiality in hard-rock terrain of southern Saudi Arabia using electrical resistivity tomography approach

To detect groundwater-bearing zones in southern Saudi Arabia, 10 profiles of 2D electrical have been constructed resistivity tomography at five selected sites. The collected data were corrected and processed using the RES2DINV software. The results demonstrated that site-1 contains two groundwater-bearing zones; the first zone is situated 13 m beneath the ground surface, while the depth of the second zone varies from 4 m to 15 m. A promising 15-m-deep groundwater-bearing zone was identified at site 2. The groundwater-bearing zones exhibit depths of 40, 10, and 10 m at sites 3, 4, and 5, respectively. The detected groundwater-bearing zones are notably shallow, with a depth of 20 m below the ground surface and with lateral extension up to 200 m. These aquifers prevail in the alluvial deposits, where the weathered/fractured or fresh basement rocks underlying these aquifers. Moreover, rainfall recharges these unconfined aquifers, as evidenced by the increasing water levels along the main Wadi channels flow during rainy seasons. Sites 2, 3, and 5 are considered as groundwater-bearing sources with high potential. Because this unconfined aquifer can be swiftly replenished by the 300–360 mm of annual rainfall in the southern Saudi lowlands, it is a promising area for groundwater supply for future urbanization plans and agricultural projects in neighboring areas.

Uncertainty in forecasting land cover land use at a watershed scale: Towards enhanced sustainable land management

Human-induced environmental stressors represent a major source of recent global changes that are reflected through alterations in the land cover land use (LCLU) that are concomitantly driven by natural and socio-economic factors. While the Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MC) process has been advocated as a promising approach in LCLU predictions, this process excludes the underlying processes that drive behavior in the context of LCLU change. Behavioral analyses can uncover motivations by considering a wider range of factors and shedding light on potential uncertainties associated with the CA-MC process. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to incorporate social behavior in the process of LCLU predictions through a novel comparative framework that allows for uncertainty assessment in predicting LCLU changes. We propose a novel comparative framework to assess uncertainty in predicting LCLU changes. The framework compares a behavioral mental model with a Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MC) model expanded through its multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDA) to cover natural and socio-economic factors under a GIS platform. Both models rely on field survey responses of farmers under climate change stress in the same test area as well as historical data for validation and verification with the aim to improve the LCLU prediction ability. Using past land cover maps, the CA-MC approach exhibited a good similarity between simulated and past observed results (71 %) and predicted future urbanization expansion (93 % in 15 years) being the driving force behind the loss of grasslands (73 %) and forests (5 %). However, when both models are compared, agricultural and urban areas exhibited 17 % and 47 % differences reflecting an appreciable level of uncertainty in LCLU predictions. The outcomes highlight the importance of considering behavioral processes in LCLU predictions towards sustainable land management.

Population Exposure Changes to Mean and Extreme Climate Events Over Pakistan and Associated Mechanisms.

The increasing prevalence of warmer trends and climate extremes exacerbate the population's exposure to urban settlements. This work investigated population exposure changes to mean and extreme climate events in different Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Pakistan and associated mechanisms (1979-2020). Spatiotemporal trends in mean and extreme temperatures revealed significant warming mainly over northern, northeastern, and southern AEZs. In contrast, mean-to-extreme precipitation changes showed non-uniform patterns with a significant increase in the northeast AEZs. Population exposure to mean (extreme) temperature and precipitation events increased two-fold during 2000-2020. The AEZs in urban settlements (i.e., Indus Delta, Northern Irrigated Plain, and Barani/Rainfall) show a maximum exposure to extreme temperatures of about 70-100×106 (person-days) in the reference period (1979-1999), which increases to 140-200×106 person-days in the recent period (2000-2020). In addition, the highest exposure to extreme precipitation days also increases to 40-200×106 person-days during 2000-2020 than 1979-1999 (20-100×106) person-days. Relative changes in exposure are large (60%-90%) for the AEZs across northeast Pakistan, justifying the spatial population patterns over these zones. Overall, the observed changes in exposure are primarily attributed to the climate effect (50%) over most AEZs except Northern Irrigated Plain for R10 and R20 events, where the interaction effect takes the lead. The population exposure rapidly increased over major AEZs of Pakistan, which could be more vulnerable to extreme events due to rapid urbanization and population growth in the near future.

The Impact of Indonesia Green Economy in Masterplan for Future Urban Farming Indonesia

Indonesia is an agrarian country with 38.70 million people working in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors, accounting for 28.61% of the total workforce. With a contribution of 12.98 percent to the GDP, agriculture is one of the crucial economic sectors in Indonesia. However, rapid urban development has reduced the vegetable supply, and urban farming in cities can be a solution by utilizing community yards to meet food needs, reduce household expenses, and increase farmer income. Utilizing community yards to meet food needs, reduce household expenses, and increase farmer income, urban farming in cities can be a solution. The research method employs a normative juridical approach, examining elements in positive law and making comparisons with other countries. Based on this approach, the study indicates that amid food issues and a declining interest in farming, Indonesia needs an urban farming program, but the current implementation of the program is not optimal. Therefore, the Indonesia Masterplan for Future Urban Farming (IM-for-FUF) is introduced as an innovation expected to better support the implementation of the green economy within the framework of positive law for sustainable economics in Indonesia. One effort to enhance food availability and environmental quality is the IM-for-FUF. Additionally, the farming concept is unique as it utilizes existing areas, eliminating the need for extensive space. By supporting IM-for-FUF, communities can acquire new skills and knowledge about farming, positively impacting the environment by utilizing the surrounding areas.

Effects of Climate Change and Urbanization on Vegetation Phenology in the Bucharest Metropolitan Area

Being an essential issue in global warming, the response of urban vegetation to climate change and urbanization has become an increasing concern at both the local and global levels. This study aims to investigate the effect of the urban environment on vegetation phenology for the Bucharest metropolitan area in Romania and to identify the potential climate drivers that influence key phenology in the urban environment. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed the response of urban vegetation phenology shifts due to climate variability and urbanization in the Bucharest metropolitan area from a spatiotemporal perspective during the 2002- 2022 period. Through synergy use of time series of the main climate variables, Air temperature -AT, land surface temperature (LST), and biophysical variables derived from MODIS Terra/Aqua satellite and in-situ data, this study developed a complex statistical and spatial regression analysis. Green space was measured with satellite-derived vegetation indicators Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Net Primary Production (NPP) data, which captures the combined availability of urban parks, street trees, forest, and periurban agricultural areas. Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) indicators have been used to characterize the effects of meteorological parameters and urbanization impacts on vegetation phenology and their changes. The results show that the response of vegetation phenology to urbanization level and climate parameters variability has a distinct spatiotemporal difference across the urban/periurban gradient. The findings of this study show that the land surface temperature anomalies associated with urbanization-induced climate warming, especially during strong summer heat waves and under urban heat islands alter urban vegetation biophysical properties, directly impacting its phenology shifts. At the metropolitan scale, the urban thermal environment directly impacts vegetation phenology patterns. The quantitative findings of this study are of great importance for understanding the complex impacts of urbanization and climate changes on vegetation phenology and for developing models to predict vegetation phenological changes under future urbanization.

Analysis of past and future urban growth on a regional scale using remote sensing and machine learning

This research investigates Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes in the Porto Alegre Metropolitan Region (RMPA). A 30-year historical analysis using Landsat satellite imagery was made and used to develop LULC scenarios for the next 20 years using a Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP) model through an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). These maps analyze the urban area’s expansion over the years and project their potential development in the future. This research considered several critical factors influencing urban growth, including shaded relief, slope, distances from main roadways, railway stations, urban centers, and the state capital, Porto Alegre. These spatial variables were incorporated into the model’s learning processes to generate future urbanization scenarios. The LULC historical maps precision showed excellent performance with a Kappa index greater than 88% for the studied years. The results indicate that the urbanization class witnessed an increase of 236.78 km2 between 1990 and 2020. Additionally, it was observed that the primary concentration of urbanized areas since 1990 has predominantly occurred around Porto Alegre and Canoas. Lastly, the future forecasts for LULC changes in 2030 and 2040 indicate that the urban area of the RMPA is projected to reach 1,137.48 km2 and 1,283.62 km2, respectively. In conclusion, based on the observed urban perimeter in 2020, future projections indicate that urban areas are expected to increase by more than 443.29 km2 by 2040. The combination of remote sensing data and Geographic Information System (GIS) enables the monitoring and modeling the metropolitan area expansion. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to develop more informed and conscientious urban plans, as well as enhance management techniques for urban development.