Future Travel Behavior Research Articles

Fear and travel: extending our understanding of pandemic (non-) travel

PurposeTravel decreased dramatically during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, only to return rapidly to prepandemic levels once the degree of fear toward the virus began to diminish among potential travelers. This USA-based 16-month repeated-measure cross-sectional survey study aims to explore the degree to which fear of COVID affected people’s decisions to stay home rather than to travel during the pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThe research used survey data. An extensive data set, composed of over 9,500 respondents, collected through Mechanical Turk over a 16-month time period, was used to compare respondent fear of the pandemic both with their attitudes toward future travel and with Smith Travel Research data reflecting actual pandemic travel patterns.FindingsThe results demonstrate how fear of COVID was closely and negatively linked to both travel intentions and travel behavior.Research limitations/implicationsData were collected from US respondents only.Practical implicationsThe findings significantly extend earlier studies and provide guidance for those studying travel consumer behavior regarding trends that should be monitored in the case of a future pandemic or other fear-inducing crisis. For hospitality and tourism managers and marketers, understanding fear as a leading indicator of future travel behavior can result in more timely promotional efforts and staffing and training decisions.Social implicationsMeasuring and understanding consumer fear levels as this relates to travel decisions can help in the future to adjust the message that is sent to the public, perhaps reducing the amount of travel taken during periods when this is unwise and or unsafe.Originality/valueThis paper extends previous work that had been based upon cross-sectional reviews, providing a broader and more valuable study of an important and timely consumer behavior travel topic.

Perturbation of Residential Preferences by COVID-19 Shocks in the Greater Toronto Area

This research investigates the immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on residential preferences in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, using a stated preference (SP) survey dataset. The study examines changes in relocation preferences and trends in the GTA after the Ontario government lifted the initial lockdown. The obtained choice data is then modeled using a mixed cross-nested logit model to find substitution patterns across regions and dwelling types, as well as explore residents’ preferences for different dwelling characteristics and the accessibility of their residence, including factors such as telecommuting options. The results reveal that the pandemic caused short-term residential dissonance, with residents tending to want to move to lower-density areas to relocate to their preferred dwelling type, emphasizing telecommuting as a key factor influencing residential relocation preferences. Housing qualities were prioritized over accessibility. The study also found heterogeneous behavior among GTA residents with regard to telecommuting as a factor in residential relocation. The study’s findings are relevant for planners and policymakers in anticipating the potential long-term pandemic-induced home relocation decisions and their impact on future household travel behavior, particularly with regard to telecommuting and accessibility.

Time Use during Activities and Trips — Potentials for Analyzing Future Travel and Activity Behavior

We carried out a survey with students on time use during activities and trips with upcoming fully automated vehicles (AV). Compared to current time used in public transit, in AV more attention-demanding activities will be undertaken. Shorter trips lead to use the time with less attention-demanding activities. Time use differences originate in the current mode. Using time in the vehicle for activities, people save time outside it. This is mostly done to extend previously existing activities or to spend more time at home. However, around 15% of the students will perform new activities, which leads to an increase of travel demand.

The object of my desire! Exploring the antecedents of long-haul travel intentions in an era of uncertainty

ABSTRACT In an increasingly uncertain global tourism environment characterised by health, safety and security, energy, economic and climate change-related pressures, there is an impetus for research into and analyses of adjustments in future travel behaviour. Taking South Africa as a long-haul destination, the study explores the conditional mediation of the relationship between country image (CI) and the long-haul travel intentions of international tourists by the interaction of intrinsic travel motives and distance desire. Data were generated from a deductive study from an online panel sample of 2021 German citizens. Two models based on country image dimensions emerged from the first data analysis stage. Both models were subjected to conditional mediation testing using PROCESS Macro's Model 58. The conditional mediation results confirmed the catalytic effect of distance desire, as it positively moderated the effect of aesthetic country image and travel motives in the mediated relationship between aesthetic CI and travel intention. The results also confirm partial conditional effects of distance desire in the normative-functional CI–travel intention nexus. The study offers tourism practitioners and destination marketing organisations novel insights into the emerging role of destination desire as an underlying mechanism in evaluative and interpretative frameworks for long-haul tourist behaviour during crisis-induced uncertainty.

Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility

Passenger and freight travel account for 28% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions today. We explore pathways to reduce transportation emissions using NREL’s TEMPO model under bounding assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancement, and policies. Results show diverse routes to 80% or more well-to-wheel GHG reductions by 2050. Rapid adoption of zero-emission vehicles coupled with a clean electric grid is essential for deep decarbonization; in the median scenario, zero-emission vehicle sales reach 89% for passenger light-duty and 69% for freight trucks by 2030 and 100% sales for both by 2040. Up to 3,000 terawatt-hours of electricity could be needed in 2050 to power plug-in electric vehicles. Increased sustainable biofuel usage is also essential for decarbonizing aviation (10–42 billion gallons needed in 2050) and to support legacy vehicles during the transition. Managing travel demand growth can ease this transition by reducing the need for clean electricity and sustainable fuels.

Is ride-hailing a step closer to personal car use? Exploring associations between car-based ride-hailing and car ownership and use aspirations among young adults

New and emerging ICT-mediated mobility services, such as ride-hailing, are shaping travel behaviours with profound implications for sustainable urban transport and mobility. Despite the growing literature on ride-hailing’s impact on travel behaviour, there is a dearth of evidence on the possible influence of this relatively new form of car-based transport on car ownership and use aspirations, and future travel behaviour. We address this gap in the literature by answering the question: does car-based ride-hailing explain aspirations for private car-based transport among young adults? We mobilise a conceptual model that accounts for the possible influences on car ownership and use aspirations of individuals’ perceived similarities between ride-hailing and private car use; perceived benefits of ride-hailing; attitude toward car ownership and use; attitude toward the environment; as well as socio-demographic attributes. We test this model empirically in a developing country context where there is a growing use of car-based ride-hailing services, especially among young demographics. We found that individuals perceived close similarities between car-based ride-hailing and private car use, and that attitude toward car use (instrumental aspects) and perceived benefits of ride-hailing had a direct positive influence on their perceptions. Car ownership and use aspirations were strongly underpinned by individuals’ experience using car-based ride-hailing as well as the social-symbolic meaning of the private car. We also found a dissonance between individuals’ pro-environmental attitude and their desire for car ownership and use. We conclude that ride-hailing is fulfilling an immediate preference for car-based transport among our study participants. Car-based ride-hailing could therefore be a step closer to realizing personal car ownership and use aspirations. We reflect on the implications for creating sustainable urban transport and mobility futures.

Risk Perception and Behavioural Intention of Tourists Towards Risk-Prone Destinations: The Mediating Role of Place Attachment

The aim of this study is to explore and analyze tourists’ behaviour towards Kashmir Valley, India, specifically in terms of their place attachment and intended future behaviour in response to perceived political risk. The study also examines the mediating role of two facets of place attachment (place dependence and place identity) in therelationship between perceived political risk and tourists’ behavioural intentions. The study employed a self-administered questionnaire to gather data from 286 respondents using convenience sampling. Additionally, the structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was employed to analyze the data. The findings showed that perceived political risk does not directly affect behavioural intention; however, political risk perception negatively impacts both place dependence and place identity. Moreover, the results suggest that place dependence and place identity are positively related to behavioural intention. Finally, place dependence and place identity have a fully mediating role in the relationship between perceived political risk and behavioural intention. The results of this study are anticipated to aid destination marketers in understanding how perceived political risk affects the formation of tourists’ place attachment and their future travel behaviour.

How Would Covid-19 Survivors Travel?: A Study on Travelling Behavior Bali Domestic Tourists

This study aims to discover how tourists whose background as COVID-19 survivors and the perceived health-related risks when traveling and how it affects their travel behavior in the future. This research is motivated by the lack of study on tourist traveling behavior, particularly from a specific segment of respondents. These respondents are tourists who were diagnosed positive for COVID-19 and have already recovered from it and are currently on vacation in two areas in Bali, Denpasar, and Badung. Sampling in this study is based on a purposive convenience sampling method through questionnaires distributed online and offline. In addition, The author uses Roscoe's Theory as a baseline in obtaining the minimum number of respondents, where a total of 100 respondents were gathered on the field. The author used multiple linear regression analysis to analyze the data collected from this research. The results of this study found that: (1) perceived health risks do not have a significant influence on future travel behavior; (2) tourists’ conditions as COVID-19 survivors have a significant influence on future travel behavior; and (3) simultaneously, health risks and tourists’ conditions as COVID-19 survivors influence future travel behavior. This study concludes that reducing perceived health risks and improving the health conditions of tourists as Covid-19 Survivors will improve their travel behavior in the future. The limitations of this study can also be used as suggestions for further research.

Urban-rural disparities in travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: The case study of Serbia

In the past two years, the spread of the COVID-19 has affected large parts of economic and social life globally, especially the tourism industry, due to the restrictions on mobility. The pandemic caused uneven regional consequences. In addition to the differences in the number of infected persons, the mortality rate, and the number of vaccinated between individual countries, disparities between rural and urban areas are particularly evident. Fundamental differences in transport infrastructure and mobility behavior between urban and rural populations suggest differences in risk perception and future travel behavior. However, urban-rural disparities in travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic have hardly been explored so far, and this study aims to help fill this gap. The aim of this paper is to investigate the changes and differences in travel risk perceptions and travel behavior of urban and rural residents under the influence of the pandemic. Analyses were conducted based on an online survey data collection in June 2021 among 399 urban and 260 rural residents of Serbia. The results showed differences in travel intentions, travel frequency, and destination choice between urban and rural residents, as well as a preference for domestic tourism and short-haul travel. This study can serve as a guideline for future research on the urban-rural dichotomy regarding travel during the COVID-19 pandemic and as a reference point for comparative studies on urban-rural differences and tourism in different countries and geographical regions.

Implications of COVID-19 for future travel behaviour in the rural periphery

BackgroundThe design, management and operation of transport systems is a complex activity and this has only been exacerbated since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Concern has been raised over the likelihood of the public transport sector surviving in some locations given the significant drops in patronage; this is especially so in rural environments where the existing provision was already limited. Furthermore, within the growing literature on the impact of COVID-19 on travel behaviour most of the focus is on urban areas with little documented experience of how rural travel behaviour has been impacted.PurposeThis paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on the transport sector and travel behaviour in the rural periphery.MethodsDrawing on the work of the International Transport Forum (ITF) Working Group on Innovative Mobility for the Periphery, augmented by additional evidence and findings from the literature, this paper addresses three specific questions: Firstly, how COVID-19 has affected rural mobility. Secondly, how we can plan for sustainable rural transport solutions in the post-COVID world. Thirdly, the longer-term impacts of COVID-19 with implications for mobility.ResultsThere will be substantial impacts from COVID-19 on rural societies and while the short-term impacts have been negative, in the longer-term there may be opportunity for changed mobility behaviours (including in response to modified work and activity patterns). Evidence suggests that it would seem likely that there are opportunities to foster new rural mobility solutions to support sustainable mobility (including Mobility-as-a-Service) and counter the traditionally fragmented transport base; this will be important as we learn to live with COVID-19.ConclusionsWhile recognising the impact of changing funding priorities and the possible shift in economic activity as a result of the pandemic we conclude with suggestions for future rural transport policy.

Integrating concepts of destination image, travel motivations, expectation, and future behavior to create a model of wellness travel intentions

ABSTRACT The COVID 19 pandemic has caused people to rethink their thoughts on health tourism. They are now emphasising the idea that health is wealth. This is an opportunity for players in the industry to create value by offering a variety of services. Therefore, it becomes imperative to find out the factors a potential wellness tourist is looking for before making a travel choice. The study aims to find out the influence of the perceived image of a wellness destination, wellness travel motives, and wellness tourist expectations from a destination on the future travel behaviour of the potential wellness tourist using Structural Equation Modelling. The empirical results indicate that factors of destination image affect tourist expectations. Further, expectations positively affect the factors of wellness travel motivation, which in turn affect travel behaviour positively. The study shows that for a positive image, a wellness destination must have an adequate blend of soft and hard wellness infrastructure and trained wellness professionals. Moreover, the tourists are looking for solace and tranquility, therefore, a destination where a mix of health and wellness-related activities are offered but without much indulgence of technology will attract tourists.

Longing for the heritage treasure: reconnecting the self and the heritage site through nostalgic reminiscences and psychological ownership

ABSTRACT Heritage tourism can enable tourists to indulge in a cherished past enriched with cultural-historical treasures. This study draws on theories pertaining to social identity, psychological ownership, and self-continuity to synthesize a model concerning nostalgic heritage tourism. The hypothesized framework was assessed using structural equation modeling with survey-based data secured from 30 heritage sites. Findings reveal that nostalgic heritage travel motivation is positively related to place identification and reminiscing enjoyment. Serial mediating effects of psychological ownership that bridges reminiscing enjoyment/place identification and future self-concept and travel behavior are also warranted. Furthermore, self-continuity is found to moderate the postulated relationships.

Adaptive Travel Behaviors to Cope with COVID-19: A Swedish Qualitative Study Focusing on Everyday Leisure Trips

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a rapid change in travel behavior for different types of trips, including everyday social and recreational leisure trips. People have used adaptive travel behaviors to cope with the new circumstances for activities and transport. Due to the Swedish strategy focusing on more voluntary restrictions, people have had reason to consider which trips and activities to skip and which to keep. The overall aim of the study is to explore and deepen the knowledge about adaptive behaviors used and seek to understand its possible implications for future travel behavior change towards sustainable mobility through the use of qualitative interviews focusing on everyday leisure trips. The results illustrate how people have used a range of adaptive behaviors to cope with the implications of the pandemic, with cancellation and change of transport mode being the ones most reflected upon by the interviewees. Further, the results reveal how the overall label “everyday leisure trips” in fact includes a variety of trip purposes that differ in terms of flexibility and importance and must thus be approached in different ways in transport policy measures.

COVID-19 and the bleisure travellers: an investigation on the aftermaths and future implications

ABSTRACT Bleisure travel is a terminology usually used to label travel that involves components of both business and leisure. It characteristically takes the form of business travellers prolonging the length of their trip, to relish leisure activities at the destination visited. The study investigated the effect of COVID-19 on the bleisure travellers and the repercussions of covid-19 pandemic on their future travel behaviour. A qualitative research methodology was adopted and data was collected with the help of a semi-structured interview guide to interviewing people who were involved in bleisure travel. A total of 30 respondents from several industrial verticals like service, healthcare, tourism, IT, academia etc. were considered for the study. Data were analysed with the help of Nvivo-12 by using thematic analysis. The results revealed that due to this global pandemic, bleisure travellers are highly demotivated, scared and anxious. The results further conveyed that the future of bleisure travel seems uncertain and blurry which not only affects the tourism or travel pattern of the tourists but will have a high impact on pure business-related activities as well. The study will help to chart out the future course of actions and to analyse the implications of COVID-19 on bleisure travel.

Managing Travellers’ Predicted Future Travel Behaviour in a post-COVID-19 World: A Tourism Supplier Perspective

This research aims to assess the influence of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry from a supply-side perspective. More specifically, this research identifies the influential determinants to help manage tourists (main target markets') predicted behaviour and changes in travel patterns due to COVID-19. The exploratory research made use of an online questionnaire. The questionnaire's link was posted on a social media page in 2020, and a convenience snowball sampling method was used to gain access to travel and tourism suppliers. 111 responses were obtained. The multivariate analysis involved exploratory factor analyses (EFA) in identifying the dependent (tourists future travel behaviour) and the independent variables [suppliers’ initiatives to connect with their target market(s) during the pandemic, the predicted management and marketing strategies the travel and tourism industry will adopt after COVID-19 and perceptions regarding the future of the travel and tourism industry (in a post-COVID world)] that were included in regression analyses. A set of linear regression analyses was performed to show whether there is a significant relationship between the factors that may provide additional guidelines for managing travellers’ predicted travel behaviour due to COVID-19. This research provides valuable insights into the strategies the various sectors within the tourism industry implement and plan to adopt to regenerate their tourism operations post COVID-19. Moreover, since this research is primarily focused on the supply-side (tourism suppliers), the sectoral feedback is valuable in streamlining national tourism industry guidelines post-COVID-19.

Destination image during the COVID-19 pandemic and future travel behavior: The moderating role of past experience

This study investigates the effects of cognitive destination image shaped by media during the COVID-19 pandemic on willingness to support and post-pandemic travel intention. Drawing upon the concept of cognitive destination image and through an online self-administered survey, the effects of four factors including trust, crisis management, healthcare system, and solidarity on travel behavioral intention are compared based on tourists’ prior experience of a given destination. To achieve this aim, ten countries with different coping strategies, numbers of positive cases and mortality rate were studied. A total number of 518 useable questionnaires were collected from the prospect international tourists who followed news related to COVID-19 for one of the selected countries and plan to travel in the future. Partial least squares – structural equation modeling and multi-group analysis were used to test the model and hypotheses. The results showed the high predictive power of the model on post COVID-19 travel behavioral intention. The findings revealed the strong and positive effects of trust and healthcare system on behavioral intention of respondents without past experience to visit a destination, whereas the effect of solidarity on behavioral intention was identified much stronger for the prospect tourists with past experience of visiting a destination. This research provides unique theoretical contributions by investigating the effects of trust, crisis management, healthcare system, and solidarity shaped by media during COVID-19 outbreak as the components of cognitive destination image on future behavioral intention across past experience of visiting a destination. This study also provides insights on post-crisis recovery factors affecting travel behavioral intention and demand. • Media-framed destination image was a significant trigger of post-pandemic behavioural intent. • Trust and healthcare system positively impact travel intention for those without past experience. • Solidarity positively impacts travel intention for those with past experience.

Understanding the Dimensionality and Underlying Nature of Senior Overseas Travel Motivations

The global increase in the elderly population has a direct influence on the travel, tourism, and hospitality sector because senior travelers have become major consumers. Therefore, developing a deeper understanding of senior motivations for overseas travel is required. However, the presence of theoretical and practical gaps limits the comprehension of this demographic market. Thus, this research sought to identify the underlying dimensionality and measurement of senior travel motivations and developed a scale to measure them. In addition, it validated the scale across future travel behaviors and preferences for tourism types and sites. An eight-factor structure of senior travel motivations was generated. The overall construct satisfied a series of convergent, discriminant, and nomological validity tests. Furthermore, the scale demonstrated a predictive explanatory power for profiling the future travel behavior and preference of seniors.

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Tourists’ COVID-19 Risk Perception and Vacation Behavior Shift

Without a doubt, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a tremendous impact on global tourism for at least two reasons: (1) imposed systematic travel restrictions that discourage people from traveling even though they would like to; and (2) increased travel anxiety due to the perceived risk of the COVID-19 virus, causing people to change their typical travel behavior. This study aims to explore the role of Covid-19 in shaping future travel behavior. More specifically, following the general model of vacation behavior and the role of risk in travel behavior, we investigate how COVID-19 influences travelers’ perceptions of risk and how this affects planned vacation behavior. The results show that COVID-19 risk perception per se influences typical forms of vacation behavior, but this risk also leads to the development of travel anxiety, which additionally influences only some forms of vacation behavior. Empirical findings show that general anxiety, which is not associated with Covid-19 risk perception, also predicts some forms of planned changes in vacation behaviour. The study concludes with recommendations on how to reduce traveler uncertainty in order to recover international leisure travel.

COVID-19’s effects on future pro-environmental traveler behavior: an empirical examination using norm activation, economic sacrifices, and risk perception theories

This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic will influence people’s pro-environmental travel behavior (PETB) and potentially prompt more ecological/sustainable future travel. A comprehensive model using the norm-activation model (NAM), economic sacrifices theory, and the perceived risks associated with COVID-19 is presented and tested using structural equation modeling on data collected from US travelers during April 2020. The results revealed the adequacy of the proposed model and the above-mentioned theories/constructs in explaining post-COVID-19 PETB (R2 = 72.1%). Risk perception of COVID-19 was found to influence PETB indirectly through the NAM constructs of environmental concerns (EC), environmental responsibility (ER), environmental moral obligation (EMO) and willingness to make economic sacrifices for environmental protection. These results illuminate the mechanism through which COVID-19 is likely to influence future pro-environmental travel behavior as well as provide important managerial implications for tourism.

A Study of the Influence of Tourists’ Destination Image and Perceived Service Quality on Their Behavioral Intention

The purpose of this study is to understand the effect of tourists’ perception of destination image and service quality on their behavioral intention. A total of 1020 valid questionnaires were collected from tourists in Lukang Town, Taiwan, by means of convenient sampling. After descriptive statistics and PLS statistical analysis, the results show that: 1) Tourists’ image of Lukang town has a positive effect on their perceived service quality. In addition, it also has a positive effect on future travel behavior intention; 2) The service quality of tourists in Lukang has a positive effect on their future travel behavior intention. 3) This study also finds that service quality has a mediating effect on tourism behavior intention. Finally, based on the results of the study, suggestions for future research and tourism planning are put forward.