Future Socio-economic Development Research Articles

Assessing the impact of climate change on landslide recurrence intervals in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Thailand, using CMIP6 climate models

Climate variability and climate change may influence the frequency and recurrence interval of landslides. Precipitation, as a main triggering factor of landslides, may be influenced by climate variability and climate change. Changes in precipitation may directly affect landslide frequency and recurrence intervals. Considering the influence of climate variability and climate change, the partial duration series method and critical rainfall threshold are combined with the simulated precipitation of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) general circulation models (GCMs) to predict changes in future landslide recurrence intervals in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Thailand. The analytical results predicted changes in the landslide frequency over the next 20 years (2023 to 2042). SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 are adopted as future socioeconomic development scenarios. According to the predictions, the results showed that the return period of landslide occurrence in the future will be shorter than the return period of landslide occurrence in the historical period; moreover, the landslide recurrence interval will fluctuate greatly. The Nakhon Si Thammarat DWR meteorological station shows the most fluctuation in landslide recurrence intervals for SSP1–2.6. In addition, the Nakhon Si Thammarat meteorological Station experiences a significant decrease of approximately 35% in landslide recurrence intervals under SSP1–2.6. For SSP2–4.5, the Nakhon Si Thammarat meteorological station shows the most fluctuation in landslide return period. In addition, the Nakhon Si Thammarat meteorological station observed a decline in landslide recurrence intervals, with a reduction of approximately 40%. Hence, the frequency of landslides may increase in the future. A comparison between SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 revealed that SSP2–4.5 yielded lower landslide return periods.

Medium and Long-term Carbon Emission Projections and Emission Reduction Potential Analysis of the Lingang Special Area Based on the LEAP Model

Based on the existing statistical data of the Lingang Special Area in Shanghai and considering its future socio-economic development， industrial structure， and technological development， a LEAP-Lingang model was developed to analyze the evolution trends of energy demand and carbon emissions under the baseline scenario， low-carbon scenario， and enhanced low-carbon scenario. To enhance the prediction accuracy of the model， the Logistic population growth model was used to predict future population data， and the learning curve model was used to simulate the cost evolution trend of related carbon reduction technologies. In addition， an economic evaluation model for carbon reduction technologies was developed， and the economic costs and emission reduction potential of typical carbon reduction technologies were evaluated by drawing a marginal emission reduction cost curve. The results showed that under the enhanced low-carbon scenario， the renewable energy accounted for 69% of the primary energy consumption， and the electric energy accounted for 91% of the terminal energy demand in 2060. The Lingang Special Area could achieve carbon peak by 2030， and the carbon emissions in 2060 were predicted to decrease by 94% compared to that in the baseline scenario. In terms of contribution to emission reduction， clean energy substitution， industrial structure optimization， and terminal energy efficiency improvement played a key role in reducing carbon emissions near the port. In the medium term （until 2035）， they were predicted to contribute 35.1%， 27.3%， and 16.2% of carbon emissions， respectively， and in the long term （until 2060）， they should contribute 50.6%， 8.75%， and 7.7% of carbon emissions， respectively. Regarding specific carbon reduction technologies， hydrogen power generation； water electrolysis for hydrogen； and carbon capture， utilization， and storage （CCUS） technology were of great significance for achieving net-zero emissions， but the costs of emission reduction were relatively high. The research results can provide ideas and references for the low-carbon and green development of the Lingang Special Area and related areas.

Impact of irrigation on vulnerability of winter wheat under extreme climate change scenario: a case study of North China Plain

An inadequate understanding of the impacts of adaptation countermeasures tends to exaggerate the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural systems. Motivated by proposing reasonable climate change adaptation countermeasures, the present study applied the EPIC model to quantify the impacts of climate change and irrigation changes with future socioeconomic development on agricultural production. Winter wheat yield losses using dynamic irrigation parameters in the North China Plain (NCP) from 2010 to 2099 under a scenario coupling climate change and future socioeconomic development (RCP8.5-SSP3), and those under an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5), were simulated. Results show that EPIC model demonstrates superior performance in simulating winter wheat yields in NCP (RMSE = 12.79 kg/ha), with the distribution of simulated and observed yields is relatively consistent. The winter wheat yield loss in the NCP was high in the south and low in the north. The yield loss rate of winter wheat was 0.21 under the RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, compared with 0.35 under the RCP8.5 scenario, indicating a superior climatic adaptation of irrigation. However, under the RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, the yield loss rate increased from 0.17 in the near term to 0.26 in the long term, implying the benefits of irrigation will be diminished with long-term climate change. It is noteworthy that yield improvement was facilitated by irrigation in part of the NCP (accounting for 14.6% area), suggesting that irrigation may lead to an increase in winter wheat yields in some regions even under extreme climate change conditions. This study highlights the significance of quantitatively revealing the benefits and limitations of adaptive countermeasures which could assist in enhancing climate change adaptation while preserving a sustainable agricultural system.

Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development

Climate change adaptation is paramount, but increasing evidence suggests that adaptation action is subject to a range of constraints. For a realistic assessment of future adaptation prospects, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome these constraints. Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios. We find that even in the most optimistic scenario, it will take until well after 2050 to overcome key constraints, which will limit adaptation for decades to come particularly in vulnerable countries. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our approach allows to ground truth indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts, improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential.

State Policy of Labor Migration Regulation in the Volga-Caspian Fishing Region in the Second Half of the 18th to the First Half of the 19th Century

The article analyzes the state policy of regulating labor migration during the second half of the 18th to the first half of the 19th centuries. Changes in the settlement and development strategy of the Volga-Caspian fishing region are demonstrated through examples of population groups such as noble landowners, peasants, merchant-fishermen, and industrial workers. The achievements and shortcomings of state-regulated labor migration during the examined period are identified. The article also assesses the normative framework that governed the processes of labor migration in the region, outlines the historical stages of settlement and development in the area, and documents the outcomes and consequences of this process for the future socio-economic development of the Volga-Caspian fishing region. Labor migration is viewed as a tool for the settlement and development of the peripheral territories of the Russian state.
 Furthermore, various forms of migration were employed by the government during the study period, including noble, monastic, peasant, Cossack, and voluntary migrations. Based on an examination of the collected material, the authors conclude that migration types successfully implemented in other (agricultural) regions of the country, such as noble, peasant, and monastic migrations, were not as productive in the context of the Volga-Caspian fishing region, where the primary economic activity revolved around fishing. The most effective workers for the fishing industry were supplied by the so-called “voluntary migration.”
 Given that the subject of the study is the state policy of regulating labor migration, the primary sources encompass legislative and normative documents from the second half of the 18th to the beginning of the 19th centuries, as well as materials from central and regional administrative structures preserved in the archives of the Russian State Historical Archive and the State Archive of the Astrakhan Region. A portion of these materials is being introduced into academic discourse for the first time.

Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity in China based on variable weight model and grey-markov model: a case study of Anhui province

Water security is not only an ecological environmental issue but also a bearing on national security and development. The study of water resources carrying capacity is the basis for future socioeconomic development and is the driving force for social progress. Therefore, it is important to investigate the influence factors of regional and national water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) and predict the future trend development. In view of the regional water resources data of the past 10 years in Anhui province, China, the Driving force Pressure State Impact Response Management (DPSIRM) model framework is constructed and the entropy weight method and variable weight theory can be used to make a comprehensive evaluation of the WRCC. Based on the comprehensive evaluation value, a modified Grey-Markov combination forecast can be introduced to predict the local WRCC in the coming years. The study on account of the Anhui Statistical Yearbook, the Water Resources Bulletin, and the water resources data of the Forestry Bureau for the past 10 years shows that the WRCC of Anhui Province is weak from 2010 to 2013 and gradually strengthens from 2014 to 2019; the WRCC of Anhui Province is mainly correlated with the impact subsystem, the management subsystem, and the state subsystem. The combined projections reflect that the future WRCC of Anhui Province is in good condition. It is recommended that the Anhui provincial government should strengthen water security and management, improve water resources utilization techniques, and construct complete and effective management tools and measures to fundamentally safeguard the province's water resources security and improve the WRCC.

Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies in a below 2-degree and food-secure world

Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability-oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the implementation of the CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We designed two ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide nature's contributions to people (NCP), while also limiting global warming below 2 degrees and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline. We found that the HE strategy performs generally better for terrestrial biodiversity (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Area of Habitat, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) in currently still natural regions. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, for freshwater biodiversity and for regulating NCP (pest control, pollination, erosion control, water quality). However, both strategies were insufficient to restore biodiversity and corresponded with considerable increases in food security risks and global temperature. Only when we combined the conservation strategies with a portfolio of ‘integrated sustainability measures’, including climate change mitigation and reductions of food waste and animal product consumption, our scenarios resulted in a restoration of biodiversity and NCP while keeping global warming below two degrees and food security risks below the baseline projection.

Rice availability and stability in Africa under future socio-economic development and climatic change

As Africa is facing multiple challenges related to food security, frameworks integrating production and availability are urgent for policymaking. Attention should be given not only to gradual socio-economic and climatic changes but also to their temporal variability. Here we present an integrated framework that allows one to assess the impacts of socio-economic development, gradual climate change and climate anomalies. We apply this framework to rice production and consumption in Africa whereby we explicitly account for the continent’s dependency on imported rice. We show that socio-economic development dictates rice availability, whereas climate change has only minor effects in the long term and is predicted not to amplify supply shocks. Still, rainfed-dominated or self-producing regions are sensitive to local climatic anomalies, while trade dominates stability in import-dependent regions. Our study suggests that facilitating agricultural development and limiting trade barriers are key in relieving future challenges to rice availability and stability.

Do All Roads Lead to Rome? A Review of the Literature on Succession Politics in China

Political elites have a tremendous influence on past, present and future socioeconomic and political developments in both western and non-western countries. Unsurprisingly, the analysis of China’s elites has been crucial in the study of politics there. A large body of literature has examined the members of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, a stronghold of the nation’s political elites. Given the growing interest and research on elite politics in the PRC in recent years, this paper reviews studies of the pathways to political power and the personal qualifications of the members of the Central Committee that are central to studies of elite Chinese politics. This review paper is organized both chronologically and thematically. It shows a shift away from the study of demographics of Central Committee members toward theorizing of how recruitment into the Central Committee works. Some scholars have theorized succession politics in China as the rise of technocracy, while others have used institutionalization and factional politics to explain how China’s leaders are selected. This paper summarizes and identifies several theoretical and methodological issues in existing studies as an effort to advance research on succession politics and political evolution in China.

Evaluation and Tradeoff of Ecosystem Services in Jiaozuo

With the continuous development of the economy and society, the demand for land space for human survival has also increased, which means that the pressure on ecosystem services has also been unprecedentedly high, leading to serious problems such as ecological environment deterioration and system function decline, resulting in fierce conflicts between ecological environment protection and human social development. Therefore, the relationship between ecosystem services and economic and social development has become a hot research topic in the field of land ecology. Jiaozuo City is also facing the problem of ecological degradation. In order to achieve coordinated development of ecology, society, and economy, this article analyzes the spatiotemporal changes in land use/cover in Jiaozuo City from 1995 to 2020. The InVEST model is used to evaluate four types of ecosystem services in Jiaozuo City: water production, carbon storage, soil conservation, and nutrient output; Summarize and summarize the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and evolution laws of ecosystem services, and explore the trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem service functions and their driving factors. The research results indicate that: (1) The main types of land use/cover in Jiaozuo City are arable land (64.5%), forest land (approximately 9.9%), grassland (1.1%), water area (0.6%), and construction land (23.8%). The changes in land use types are relatively small. (2) From 1995 to 2020, the biomass and spatial distribution evolution of the four ecosystem services in Jiaozuo City varied. There are significant interannual differences in water production services, and the spatial distribution of water production in the western region is lower than that in the eastern region. The southern region is lower than the northern region. The interannual variation of nutrient (phosphorus) output is relatively small, and the spatial distribution pattern varies greatly, showing a high and low value clustering distribution pattern. The interannual difference in soil conservation is relatively small. The interannual differences in carbon storage are small, and the annual spatial distribution is irregular. (3) Each ecosystem service is influenced by different natural and social influencing factors, and the contribution rate of natural factors is higher than that of social factors. There is a significant difference in the output capacity of ecosystem services among different land uses/covers, which directly affects the total amount and spatial distribution of ecosystem services. The ecological status of Jiaozuo City is worrying. In the future socio-economic development process, reasonable planning of land use should be carried out to vigorously ensure the parallel and healthy development of social economy and ecological environment.

Future socioeconomic development along the West African coast forms a larger hazard than sea level rise

Sea level rise will exacerbate the vulnerability of low-lying coastal regions around the world in the coming decades, posing a severe threat to coastal populations. Here, we assess the future population and asset exposure of West Africa (WA) to normal and extreme coastal flooding based on the projected sea level rise scenarios reported in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report using a bathtub modeling approach, MERIT DEM and gridded population gross domestic product datasets that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We find that socioeconomic development will be responsible for the maximum increase in future coastal flooding along the WA coast towards the end of the century. While contributions from climate-induced sea level rise will dominate and be responsible for changes in coastal flooding events in some countries, exposure to these events is likely to dominate in many countries if the ongoing horizontal infrastructural development and economic-oriented transformation continue. These results have important implications for both sustainable coastal planning and flooding risk mitigation for WA’s coastal areas and should be considered as a cautionary tale for managing increasing socioeconomic development and coastward migration at the expense of the region’s coastal ecosystems.

Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise

Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns will depend on the amount of sea-level rise; future socioeconomic development; and adaptation strategies pursued to reduce exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise. To explore spatial feedbacks between these drivers, we combine sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and assumptions on adaptation policies in a spatially-explicit model (‘CONCLUDE’). Using the Mediterranean region as a case study, we find up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 if no adaptation policies are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries. We show that adaptation policies can reduce the number of internal migrants by a factor of 1.4 to 9, depending on the type of strategies pursued; the implementation of hard protection measures may even lead to migration towards protected coastlines. Overall, spatial migration patterns are robust across all scenarios, with out-migration from a narrow coastal strip and in-migration widely spread across urban settings. However, the type of migration (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends on future socioeconomic developments that drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making that goes well beyond coastal issues.

Population amount risk assessment of extreme precipitation-induced landslides based on integrated machine learning model and scenario simulation

In this study, the future landslide population amount risk (LPAR) is assessed based on integrated machine learning models (MLMs) and scenario simulation techniques in Shuicheng County, China. Firstly, multiple MLMs were selected and hyperparameters were optimized, and the generated 11 models were cross-integrated to select the best model to calculate landslide susceptibility; by calculating precipitation for different extreme precipitation recurrence periods and combining the susceptibility results to assess the landslide hazard. Using the town as the basic unit, the exposure and vulnerability of the future landslide population under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in each town were assessed, and then combined with the hazard to estimate the LPAR in 2050. The results showed that the integrated model with the optimized random forest model as the combination strategy had the best comprehensive performance in susceptibility assessment. The distribution of hazard classes is similar to susceptibility, and with an increase in precipitation, the low-hazard area and high-hazard decrease and shift to medium-hazard and very high-hazard classes. The high-risk areas for future landslide populations in Shuicheng County are mainly concentrated in the three southwestern towns with high vulnerability, whereas the northern towns of Baohua and Qinglin are at the lowest risk class. The LPAR increased with the intensity of extreme precipitation. The LPAR differs significantly among the SSPs scenarios, with the lowest in the “fossil-fueled development (SSP5)” scenario and the highest in the “regional rivalry (SSP3)” scenario. In summary, the landslide susceptibility model based on integrated machine learning proposed in this study has a high predictive capability. The results of future LPAR assessment can provide theoretical guidance for relevant departments to cope with future socioeconomic development challenges and make corresponding disaster prevention and mitigation plans to prevent landslide risks from a developmental perspective.

Китай: возможно ли всеобщее процветание?

Against the background of the aggravation of the US-Chinese rivalry, as well as the increasing level of criticality of internal socio-economic problems, Beijing is trying to accelerate the implementation of national development strategies, the main of which are the general “Great revival of the Chinese nation” and more focused “Common prosperity” and “Double circulation”. In general, these programs are interrelated and interdependent, and without the implementation of one of them it is impossible to implement the rest. They are designed to reduce the criticality of socio-economic imbalances formed in China during economic reforms and especially after 2008, as well as lay the foundation for the future socio-economic development of the PRC based on the dominance of domestic final consumption of households in order to avoid Beijing’s dependence on external economic and political conditions. This article considers, first of all, the “Common prosperity” program, the implementation of which in the medium term should level the social situation in China, as well as expand demand from the middle class. In addition, “Common prosperity” also has a pronounced ideological character, since it is a relatively new idea of the CPC General Secretary and, ultimately, the reputation of both Xi Jinping himself and the Communist Party of China as a whole depends on the success of its implementation. In an economic sense, “Common prosperity” is one of the stages of achieving the “Second centennial goal”, according to which Beijing plans to become in 2049, if not the first power, then the “second” first power at the level of the United States. That is, victory or at least parity in strategic rivalry with the United States depends on “Common prosperity”. At the same time, despite the importance of “Common prosperity” the final clear plan still doesn’t exist. The main question remains: where, in the context of a decrease in the effectiveness of traditional growth factors of the Chinese economy, to take resources for its implementation. If you increase the taxation of the Chinese middle class, which is already not rich by world average standards, then you can reduce the demand on its part and hit the “double circulation”. If you introduce taxes on real estate, you can hit the Chinese real estate market on the income from which provincial budgets depend a lot. If rely on tertiary distribution, that is, to form a tradition of charity, it is not clear whether this will be sustainable. In a difficult economic environment, Beijing will have to look for mutually satisfying and balanced solutions to very difficult tasks.

Институциональное портфолио российского образования

Introduction. The educational system is constitutive in all countries, it is one of the world’s largest systems that generates and reproduces human, intellectual, cognitive capital. National educational systems have both common features and differences, which are based on unique components – institutional genes. Russian education inherits many of the best traditions of the previous social system, thanks to which worldrecognized successes have been achieved. Most of these traditions have acquired the qualities of institutional genes, but this does not exclude the emergence of stable inefficient institutions, i.e. institutional traps. These are the characteristics of Russian education that are synthesized in its institutional portfolio as a topical and, in many ways, new research topic. Theoretical analysis. This study for the first time offers an approach to Russian education from the standpoint of institutional genetics. Institutional genes are a set of institutions, institutional structures, their interactions, mutual determinations, various rules of the game that are inherited, i.e. are transmitted from the previous economic system to the next, develop within the existing system, are constantly reproduced. Institutional genes can undergo processes of various changes - mutations and mimicry, dysfunctions, institutional pathologies. Empirical analysis. The main characteristics of institutional genes are highlighted: they are inherited, changed, reproduced within the framework of subsequent economic systems, which creates a certain predictability of trends in future socio-economic development and the possibility of choosing effective directions in politics. The study of new institutional traps in Russian education is of scientific interest, which is significant for determining the mechanisms of their leveling in the general course of systemic transformations. Results. An institutional portfolio of Russian education is presented, containing an analysis of the best traditions of the domestic education system, most of which is identified as institutional genes, and its new institutional traps. The significance of the appeal to the institutional genetics of Russian education and the existence of institutional traps, mechanisms for leveling them to substantiate the algorithm for the development of the educational system in accordance with its genesis, national priorities and strategic prospects is substantiated.

Transport Infrastructure Impact on Regional Unemployment – Evidence from Vietnam

Forecasts of elements that can lower unemployment are always significant since they demonstrate a country's economic development strategy's efficacy. The difficulties that workers have in finding work has major implications for Vietnam's socioeconomic development. The goal of this study is to look at the influence of transportation infrastructure on unemployment in Vietnam's 63 regions from 2000 to 2020. Improvements in Vietnam's transportation infrastructure have helped cut unemployment throughout the country's 63 provinces and regions, according to the baseline regression results. When the System Generalized Method of Moment estimator was utilized in this investigation, the same results were achieved. The results of the robustness check are comparable to those of the previous tests. The Vietnamese government continues to push the development of high-quality transportation infrastructure in order to assure future socioeconomic development. This is a critical aspect in reducing unemployment and restoring the Vietnamese economy following the COVID-19 period.

Личностно-профессиональные особенности руководителей социальной сферы с различным отношением к пандемии и её последствиям

This article explores the attitude of managers towards the COVID-19 pandemic, providing an overview of their opinions on its consequences and potential impact on the country’s future socio-economic development. The study is important since it provides insight into how management styles may be effective in times of uncertainty and crisis. The research involved 661 managers, including 383 from the social sphere. The study utilized the management potential assessment questionnaire (PMO, version 5.0, Sinyagin, 2018), as well as a specially developed questionnaire. The participants were differentiated on two grounds: their attitude towards the pandemic either as a mobilizing challenge or as a serious not always surmountable difficulty in actual management. The findings reflect that the managers’ attitudes about the prospects for the country’s development after the end of the pandemic, commonly referred to as “optimism-pessimism”, have profound effect on their management strategies and performance indicators. It is revealed that readiness for learning and social mobility are key characteristics associated with optimistic future expectations. Internality, personality strength, a clear strategic life idea, and managerial experience are most associated with overcoming current circumstances. The paper concludes that developing and enhancing these qualities is a significant task that managers have in today’s uncertain world.

ЗА 14-АТА ПЕТИЛЕТКА НА КИТАЙ И ХАРМОНИЯТА

We know that China has been adopting Five-year plans since 1953; they are a system of planned initiatives that the country seeks to pursue in its future socio-economic development. The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan (FYP) of China (2021– 2025), approved in March 2021, is the main topic of this article not only because of the important strategic and geopolitical place of China in the modern world, but also because of the need for such publications in our country. We can read that this five-year plan sets key milestones for China, but also for every other country in the world: tackling poverty, trade expansion, investment in science and technology, environment protection, etc. The aim here is to consider not only the economic and social aspect of the planned development, but also to look for the roots of modern Chinese politics in traditional culture and ancient Chinese philosophy. In today’s global world, it is not possible for any nation or culture to exist in isolation and develop on its own. That is why Chinese people say that China needs the world, but the world also needs China, especially the modern world.

Supporting Sustainable Development Goal 5 Gender Equality and Entrepreneurship in the Tanzanite Mine-to-Market

This article analyses how a strategy for Tanzania’s tanzanite gemstone mining sector could foster gender equality in the mine-to-market (M2M) supply chain, whilst enhancing opportunities for female entrepreneurship as part of the country’s sustainable economic development. In the mining industry, the contemporary concept of mapping artisanal and small-scale mining to the UN Sustainable Development Goals is a newer aspect of sustainability. SDG 5 aims to achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls. However, while there have been initiatives to support gemstone mining in Tanzania and East Africa, to date, the role of women in the lucrative tanzanite M2M supply chain has been less visible and a missed opportunity. This is a concern, as in 2019, pre-COVID-19 pandemic, gemstone and precious metals accounted for an incredible 33.2% of Tanzania’s total exports. In contrast, in leading mining countries such as Australia and Canada, the participation of women continues to steadily advance, economically empowering the women involved. This article contributes a critical review of Tanzanian mining regulation and licensing practice in a historical and gender equality context. A qualitative research case study showcases artisanal small-scale (ASM) tanzanite gemstone miner and entrepreneur Pili Hussein, with a view to support the formulation of a Tanzanian regional, female-oriented, M2M tanzanite strategy. The developed world experience of increasing levels of gender participation in mining provides evidence of a reduced gender pay gap and enhanced mine safety practice when women are involved. This research finds that increased investment in supporting women to participate in the tanzanite M2M gemstone supply chain positively impacts SDG 5 in the country. Furthermore, given Tanzania’s economic dependence on mining and the exceptional characteristics of rare, single-source tanzanite (a generational gemstones), we conclude that gender equality and female mine-to-market (M2M) entrepreneurship has an undervalued, yet important, role to play in Tanzania’s future socio-economic development.

Updating global urbanization projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Urbanization level is an important indicator of socioeconomic development, and projecting its dynamics is fundamental for studies related to global socioeconomic and climate change. This paper aims to update the projections of global urbanization from 2015 to 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways by using the logistic fitting model and iteratively identifying reference countries. Based on historical urbanization level database from the World Urbanization Prospects, projected urbanization levels and uncertainties are provided for 204 countries and areas every five years. The 2010–2100 year-by-year projected urbanization levels and uncertainties based on the annual historical data from the World Bank (WB) for 188 of countries and areas are also provided. The projections based on the two datasets were compared and the latter were validated using the historical values of the WB for the years 2010–2018. The updated dataset of urbanization level is relevant for understanding future socioeconomic development, its implications for climate change and policy planning.