Future Security Policy Research Articles

Large Scale Characterization of Software Vulnerability Life Cycles

Software systems inherently contain vulnerabilities that have been exploited in the past resulting in significant revenue losses. The study of various aspects related to vulnerabilities such as their severity, rates of disclosure, exploit and patch release, and existence of common vulnerabilities in different products can help in improving the development, deployment, and maintenance process of software systems. It can also help in designing future security policies and conducting audits of past incidents. Furthermore, such an analysis can help customers to assess the security risks associated with software products of different vendors. In this paper, we conduct an exploratory measurement study of a large software vulnerability data set containing 56077 vulnerabilities disclosed since 1988 till 2013. We investigate vulnerabilities along following eight dimensions: (1) phases in the life cycle of vulnerabilities, (2) evolution of vulnerabilities over the years, (3) functionality of vulnerabilities, (4) access requirement for exploitation of vulnerabilities, (5) risk level of vulnerabilities, (6) software vendors, (7) software products, and (8) existence of common vulnerabilities in multiple software products. Our exploratory analysis uncovers several statistically significant findings that have important implications for software development and deployment.

Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries

Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world's most conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides.

Domestic-International Interactions and Japanese Security Studies

This article highlights the critical structural- and domestic-level variables that will shape Japan's future security policy orientation. I argue that although most analysts recognize that both the internal and external realms are important, very few have analyzed how variables at the two levels are interrelated-a surprising state of affairs given the field's recent emphasis on domestic-international interactions. Analysts who insist on stressing factors at one level to the exclusion of the other, however, are likely to miss the most important dynamics of Japan's future security policies. We need to think more clearly about how to integrate international- and domestic-level factors and to appreciate the importance of interactions between them.

Domestic-International Interactions and Japanese Security Studies

This article highlights the critical structural- and domestic-level variables that will shape Japan's future security policy orientation. I argue that although most analysts recognize that both the internal and external realms are important, very few have analyzed how variables at the two levels are interrelated-a surprising state of affairs given the field's recent emphasis on domestic-international interactions. Analysts who insist on stressing factors at one level to the exclusion of the other, however, are likely to miss the most important dynamics of Japan's future security policies. We need to think more clearly about how to integrate international- and domestic-level factors and to appreciate the importance of interactions between them.

Europe without America?: The Crisis in Atlantic Relations

The post-war world of the Atlantic Alliance is breaking up. Relations between the United States and its European allies are approaching crisis point; there is widespread European distrust of the Reagan administration's foreign and defence policies; there are deep disagreements within NATO about future security policy; and Europe and the United States threaten trade war as protectionist pressure arise and mass unemployment persists. A recipe for disaster or a chance to think again? As far as Europe is concerned these developments pose enormous dangers but also exciting new opportunities: will the world split up into increasingly protectionist and antagonistic states; or will a new European unity emerge, embracing not only Western Europe but also Europe east of the Iron Curtain? John Palmer, an internationally known journalist and commentator on European affairs, examines the historical background to the current crisis and argues that it is no passing phase but rather a central feature of the crumbling economic and political order of the West. In this trenchant and thought-provoking analysis he focuses on the options available - and challenges Europe to think again. General educated readership; politicians; students of international affairs, modern European and American history.

An Appraisal of U.S. Strategy in the Indian Ocean

intervention in Afghanistan, the Iran-Iraq war, and the deep-rooted problems in Turkey clearly suggest new patterns of instability in the area. This zone of crisis has undermined the U.S. and Western position and has opened new vistas of opportunity for the Soviet Union. It has been argued that the diminishing U.S. influence and power in the Indian Ocean region is the result of three decades of neglect.2 This region did not figure prominently in the postwar global strategy of the United States. The North Atlantic region and the Pacific basin remained the main foci of American power and strategic infrastructure. With the exception of a token U.S. Middle East Fleet of three old destroyers, the security of the Indian Ocean/Persian Gulf depended heavily on the residual elements of Great Britain's imperial power. Despite serious gaps in the capability of the British forces and early signs of a British retreat from the area, the U.S. abstained from establishing a credible presence. Even a prompt British withdrawal of forces from east of Suez in 1968 did not change the American perception of the Indian Ocean as a low priority area. However, the Soviet naval deployments following the British decision to withdraw totally from the region, the Soviet and Cuban involvement in Africa, and the repercussions of the Arab-Israeli conflict of 1973 and the ensuing oil embargo significantly sharpened a growing threat perception in the American defense community. It prompted and intensified efforts by the United States regarding future security policies in the area and the establishment of a credible deterrent posture.3