Future Climate Change Scenarios Research Articles

Drought-adapted leaves are produced even when more water is available in dry tropical forest.

Species in dry environments may adjust their anatomical and physiological behaviors by adopting safer or more efficient strategies. Thus, species distributed across a water availability gradient may possess different phenotypes depending on the specific environmental conditions to which they are subjected. Leaf and vascular tissues are plastic and may vary strongly in response to environmental changes affecting an individual's survival and species distribution. To identify whether and how legumes leaves vary across a water availability gradient in a seasonally dry tropical forest, we quantified leaf construction costs and performed an anatomical study on the leaves of seven legume species. We evaluated seven species, which were divided into three categories of rainfall preference: wet species, which are more abundant in wetter areas; indifferent species, which are more abundant and occur indistinctly under both rainfall conditions; and dry species, which are more abundant in dryer areas. We observed two different patterns based on rainfall preference categories. Contrary to our expectations, wet and indifferent species changed traits in the sense of security when occupying lower rainfall areas, whereas dry species changed some traits when more water was available, such as increasing cuticle and spongy parenchyma thickness, or producing smaller and more numerous stomata. Trischidium molle, the most plastic and wet species, exhibited a similar strategy to the dry species. Our results corroborate the risks to vegetation under future climate change scenarios as stressed species and populations may not endure even more severe conditions.

Response of grassland growing season length to extreme climatic events on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Extreme Climatic Events (ECEs) are increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration as the earth warms, which greatly affects the vegetation phenology. However, the response of vegetation phenology to different types of ECEs (e.g., extreme hot, extreme cold, extreme drought, and extreme wet) has not been extensively studied. To fill this knowledge gap, we investigated the relationship between the length of growing season (LOS) of grassland and ECEs on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). First, we analyzed the spatial distribution and interannual trends of phenology based on the MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Second, we used Coincidence Rate (CR) analysis to quantify the relationship between LOS anomalies and ECEs. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of LOS to the intensity of ECEs. The results indicated that the spatial distribution of LOS was closely related to local hydrothermal conditions, with longer LOS in places with more precipitation or higher temperatures during the growing season, and LOS extended by 0.28 days/year from 2000 to 2022. Moreover, we found that the CR of negative LOS anomalies to ECEs notably exhibited variations along climatic gradients, with higher CR to extreme hot generally occurring in warmer areas. Meanwhile, the CR of extreme wet increased while the CR of extreme drought decreased with increasing precipitation. We also found that the sensitivity of LOS to ECEs changed more markedly, along the climatic gradients, in alpine ecoregions compared to temperate ecoregions. Overall, the sensitivities of LOS ranked in descending order of absolute sensitivity to extreme drought, extreme wet, extreme hot, and extreme cold. This study furthers our understanding of the grassland response to ECEs under different hydrothermal conditions, which can provide valuable reference for the management and conservation of grassland ecosystems in QTP under future climate change scenarios.

Biotic response of plankton communities to Middle to Late Miocene monsoon wind and nutrient flux changes in the Oman margin upwelling zone

Abstract. Understanding past dynamics of upwelling cells is an important aspect of assessing potential upwelling changes in future climate change scenarios. Our present understanding of nutrient fluxes throughout the world's oceans emphasizes the importance of intermediate waters transporting nutrients from the Antarctic divergence into the middle and lower latitudes. These nutrient-rich waters fuel productivity within wind-driven upwelling cells in all major oceans. One such upwelling system is located along the Oman margin in the western Arabian Sea (WAS). Driven by cross-hemispheric winds, the WAS upwelling zone's intense productivity led to the formation of one of the most extensive oxygen minimum zones known today. In this study covering the Middle to Late Miocene at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 722, we investigate the inception of upwelling-derived primary productivity. This study presents new plankton assemblage data in the context of existing model- and data-based evidence constraining the tectonic and atmospheric boundary conditions for upwelling in the WAS. With this research, we build upon the original planktonic foraminifer-based research by Dick Kroon in 1991 as part of his research based on the ODP LEG 117. We show that monsoonal winds likely sustained upwelling since the emergence of the Arabian Peninsula after the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO) ∼ 14.7 Ma, with fully monsoonal conditions occurring since the end of the Middle Miocene Climatic Transition (MMCT) at ∼ 13 Ma. However, changing nutrient fluxes through Antarctic Intermediate and sub-Antarctic Mode Waters (AAIW/SAMW) were only established after ∼ 12 Ma. Rare occurrences of diatom frustules correspond to the maximum abundances of Reticulofenestra haqii and Reticulofenestra antarctica, indicating higher upwelling-derived nutrient levels. By 11 Ma, diatom abundance increases significantly, leading to alternating diatom blooms and high-nutrient-adapted nannoplankton taxa. These changes in primary producers are also well reflected in geochemical proxies with increasing δ15Norg. values (> 6 ‰) and high organic carbon accumulation. These proxies provide further independent evidence for high productivity and the onset of denitrification simultaneously. Our multi-proxy-based evaluation of Site 722 primary producers provides evidence for a stepwise evolution of Middle to Late Miocene productivity in the western Arabian Sea for the first time. The absence of a clear correlation with existing deep marine climate records suggests that both local wind patterns and intermediate water nutrient changes likely modulated productivity in the western Arabian Sea during the Middle to Late Miocene. Finally, we show that using a multi-proxy record provides novel insights into how plankton responded to changing nutrient conditions through time in a monsoon-wind-driven upwelling zone.

Similarities and differences in the physiological adaptation to water salinity between two life forms of aquatic plants in alpine and arid wetlands

Aquatic plants play a crucial role in freshwater ecosystems as primary producers, but their survival is threatened by salinization. Understanding the physiological responses of aquatic plants to increasing water salinity is important for predicting their adaptive strategies under future climate change scenarios. In this study, we measured 15 physiological traits of 49 aquatic plant species along a large environmental gradient in alpine and arid regions of western China to explore their physiological adaptations and compare the similarities and differences in adaptive strategies between emergent and submerged life forms. We found that water salinity and low temperature were key factors affecting aquatic plants in these regions. Aquatic plants adapted to saline habitats by accumulating proline and sulfur (S) concentrations, and to cold habitats by increasing ascorbate peroxidase activity. Plant trait network analysis revealed that S was the hub trait in emergent plants, while proline was the hub trait in submerged plants, indicating that emergent plants balanced osmoregulation and reactive oxygen metabolism through S-containing compounds, while submerged plants prioritized the regulation of osmotic balance through proline.

Venice lagoon chlorophyll-a evaluation under climate change conditions: A hybrid water quality machine learning and biogeochemical-based framework

Climate change presents a significant challenge to lagoon ecosystems, which are highly valued coastal environments known for their provision of unique ecosystem services. As important as fragile, lagoons are vulnerable to both natural processes and anthropogenic activities, and this vulnerability is exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, which are likely to result in severe ecological consequences. The complexity of water quality (WQ) processes, characterized by compounding and interconnected pressures, highlights the importance of adequate sophisticated methods to estimate future ecological impacts on lagoon environments. In this setting, a hybrid framework is introduced where Machine Learning (ML) and biogeochemical (BGC) models are integrated in a sequential modelling approach. This integration exploits the unique strengths offered by both models. The ML model allows capturing and learning linear and nonlinear correlations from historical data; the BGC interprets and simulates complex environmental systems subject to compounded pressures, building on identified causal relationships. Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Random Forest (RF) ML algorithms are trained, validated and tested within the Venice lagoon case study to assimilate historical WQ data (i.e., water temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen) and spatio-temporal information (i.e., monitoring station location and month), and to predict changes in chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) conditions. Then, projections from the BGC model SHYFEM-BFM for 2019, 2050, and 2100 timeframes under RCP 8.5 are integrated into the ML model (composing the hybrid ML-BGC model) to evaluate Chl-a variations under future biogeochemical conditions forced by climate change projections. Moreover, the SHYFEM-BFM standalone Chl-a projections are also used to compare the hybrid and the BGC scenarios. Annual and seasonal Chl-a predictions are developed by classes based on two classification modes (median and quartiles) established on the descriptive statistics computed on historical data. Results from the case study showed as the RF successfully classifies Chl-a with an overall model accuracy of about 80% for the median and 61% for the quartiles modes. Concerning future climate change scenarios, results revealed a decreasing trend for the lowest Chl-a values (below the first quartile, i.e. 0.85 µg/l) moving to the far future (2100), with an opposite rising trend for the highest Chl-a values (above the fourth quartile, i.e. 2.78 µg/l). On the seasonal level, summer remains the season with the highest Chl-a values in all scenarios, although in 2100 a strong increase in higher Chl-a values is also expected during the springtime one. The proposed hybrid framework represents a valuable approach to strengthen both multivariate Chl-a modelling and scenarios analysis, by placing artificial intelligence-based models alongside biogeochemical models.

Drought trends projection under future climate change scenarios for Iran region.

The study highlights the potential characteristics of droughts under future climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the changes in Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) under the A1B, A2, and B1 climate change scenarios in Iran were assessed. The daily weather data of 30 synoptic stations from 1992 to 2010 were analyzed. The HadCM3 statistical model in the LARS-WG was used to predict the future weather conditions between 2011 and 2112, for three 34-year periods; 2011-2045, 2046-2079, and 2080-2112. In regard to the findings, the upward trend of the potential evapotranspiration in parallel with the downward trend of the precipitation in the next 102 years in three scenarios to the base timescale was transparent. The frequency of the SPEI in the base month indicated that 17.02% of the studied months faced the drought. Considering the scenarios of climate change for three 34-year periods (i.e., 2011-2045, 2046-2079, and 2080-2112) the average percentages of potential drought occurrences for all the stations in the next three periods will be 8.89, 16.58, and 27.27 respectively under the B1 scenario. While the predicted values under the A1B scenario are 7.63, 12.66, and 35.08%respectively. The relevant findings under the A2 scenario are 6.73, 10.16, 40.8%. As a consequence, water shortage would be more serious in the third period of study under all three scenarios. The percentage of drought occurrence in the future years under the A2, B1, and A1B will be 19.23%, 17.74%, and 18.84%, respectively which confirms the worst condition under the A2 scenario. For all stations, the number of months with moderate drought was substantially more than severe and extreme droughts. Considering the A2 scenario as a high emission scenario, the analysis of SPEI frequency illustrated that the proportion of dry periods in regions with humid and cool climate is more than hot and warm climates; however, the duration of dry periods in warmer climates is longer than colder climates. Moreover, the temporal distribution of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration indicated that in a large number of stations, there is a significant difference between them in the middle months of the year, which justifies the importance of prudent water management in warm months.

Limiting global warming to 2 °C benefits building climate resilience in rice-wheat systems in India through crop calendar management

CONTEXTRice-wheat rotation system (RWS) is the most important food production system in South Asia and contributes approximately 50% of the total food consumed in India. Building climate resilience of RWS in the context of global warming is critical to sustainably feeding the ever-increasing population in India. Prior research has shown a large potential for climate change adaptation in rice and wheat production through cropping calendar adjustment, but the climate resilience of rice-wheat systems remains elusive. OBJECTIVEThe study aims to project coupled changes in the growing seasons of rice and wheat in RWS under global warming, and evaluate climate resilience of RWS productivity in India through crop calendar adjustment. METHODSWe combined an improved Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model with satellite remote sensing data to investigate the coupling of rice and wheat growing seasons in RWS in India. Then, we shifted crop calendars in RWS to simulate optimal planting dates and potential yield changes of rice and wheat under contrasting global warming scenarios. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSWe show that farmers will face a yield trade-off between monsoon rice and dry-season wheat under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (4 °C warming by the end of the century) in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) due to a tighter coupling of crop growing seasons in RWS. Early planting for both monsoon rice and dry-season wheat is recommended in the current climate, but the strategy does not apply to future climate change scenarios in the IGP. Limiting global warming below 2 °C by the end of the century is likely to improve RWS productivity by 14% in irrigated systems and 21% in rainfed systems, and keep sufficient maneuvering space for resilient planting strategies in the future. SIGNIFICANCEOur analysis emphasizes that failure to fulfill the pledges of the Paris Agreement will result in not only higher crop damage but also more challenging climate adaptation planning in RWS in India.

Climate change impacts: Vegetation shift of broad-leaved and coniferous forests

Climate change is a variation in temperature and precipitation for longer periods due to global warming. It has an impact on tree species distribution, composition and diversity of the forests. Our study aims to answer how future climate change is likely to have an impact on the vegetation shift of broad-leaved and coniferous forests. The study used forest resource assessment data (2010–2014) of Nepal to assess vegetation shift from the perspective of climate change scenario. We collected altogether 392 presence points (observations) for broad-leaved forests and 99 for coniferous forests. These occurrence points accompanied by bioclimatic variables and topographical variables (Elevation, Slope and Aspect) were used as input data in a MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of the coniferous and broad-leaved forests. We found a potential area of the near current (1970–2000) coniferous forest replaced by a broad-leaved forest under a climate change scenario (SSP2 4.5 for 2041–2060) and vice versa. The total projected vegetation shift area of Nepal was found to be approximately 1800 km2 (i.e. over 3 % of the total forest area). Out of the total vegetation shift area, almost 90 % percent of the area was found to be replaced by broad-leaved forest while the remaining 10 % area was found to be replaced by a coniferous forest. The climate change impact has been noticed in the vegetation shift, particularly the presence of broad-leaved forest is more dominant. The study provides better insights into the impact of climate change on the existing vegetation under the future climate change scenario.

HOTFLOOR: A benthic chamber system to simulate warming on the seafloor

AbstractThe frequency of abnormally warm water events is increasing not only in surface waters, but also in subsurface layers, with major impacts on benthic ecosystems. Previous insights on heatwave effects have been obtained through field observations or manipulative laboratory experiments. Here, we introduce a system capable of inducing elevated water temperatures in benthic habitats in situ over several days. The system consists of a commercially available electric boiler, usually applied in domestic underfloor heating, and custom‐designed benthic acrylic glass chambers connected to individual thermostats. Furthermore, the chambers are semi‐open, allowing constant water exchange, maintaining otherwise near‐natural conditions, including oxygen concentrations, while the temperature is elevated. The water exchange can be stopped to facilitate incubations measuring changes in benthic fluxes. We conducted a 15‐d trial study in July 2021 on a bare‐sediment habitat at 2.5 m depth, exposing five chambers to water temperatures 5°C above ambient temperatures for 6 d and comparing with five control chambers. In this assessment, we demonstrate that the temperature control and stability were reliable while maintaining natural oxygen conditions. The modular character of the system permits adaptations for various benthic habitats, facilitating the investigation of elevated temperatures in situ for future climate change scenarios.

Development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in Java Island

Climate change-induced alterations in temperature and precipitation patterns pose a significant threat to flood risk worldwide. This research focuses on Java Island and presents a method to develop a flood hazard index map considering various future climate change scenarios. To simulate flood characteristics for various scenarios, an RRI (Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation) model was calibrated and validated using six different flood events in three basin areas. Furthermore, the baseline, historical 100-year return period, was compared against climate change scenarios representing near-future (2015–2060) and far-future (2061–2100) cycles, integrating six bias-corrected climate models under the SSP2.45 and SSP5.85 scenarios. This study reveals that the maximum predicted flood extents under both SSP2.45 and SSP5.85 scenarios surpass the baseline across all cycles, with propagation areas expanding with each scenario and cycle. Notably, the worst-case hazard score for all cycles and scenarios occurred in DKI Jakarta and Central Java due to high rainfall concentration and population density. In the case of DKI Jakarta, the hazard score was between 0.61 and 0.76, while, for Central Java, the hazard score was between 0.61 and 0.73. These findings are important for guiding non-governmental and governmental institutions in making robust flood mitigation policies to safeguard vulnerable communities in Java Island.

Natural climate solutions provide robust carbon mitigation capacity under future climate change scenarios

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are recognized as an important tool for governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide. Using California as a globally relevant reference, we evaluate the magnitude of biological climate mitigation potential from NCS starting in 2020 under four climate change scenarios. By mid-century NCS implementation leads to a large increase in net carbon stored, flipping the state from a net source to a net sink in two scenarios. Forest and conservation land management strategies make up 85% of all NCS emissions reductions by 2050, with agricultural strategies accounting for the remaining 15%. The most severe climate change impacts on ecosystem carbon materialize in the latter half of the century with three scenarios resulting in California ecosystems becoming a net source of carbon emissions under a baseline trajectory. However, NCS provide a strong attenuating effect, reducing land carbon emissions 41–54% by 2100 with total costs of deployment of 752–777 million USD annually through 2050. Rapid implementation of a portfolio of NCS interventions provides long-term investment in protecting ecosystem carbon in the face of climate change driven disturbances. This open-source, spatially-explicit framework can help evaluate risks to NCS carbon storage stability, implementation costs, and overall mitigation potential for NCS at jurisdictional scales.

Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of Georgian Hydrology under Future Climate Change Scenarios

The Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) is a systematic process used to identify gaps in regional climate adaptation strategies. The CRVA method assesses regional vulnerability, adaptation capacity, exposure, and sensitivity to climate change to support improved adaptation policies. This CRVA study assesses Georgia’s climate exposure, geographic sensitivity, and socio-economic sensitivity by focusing on the impacts of climate change on regional hydrology. The projected change in climate extreme indices, defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), is assessed against the 1961–1990 baseline under future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. These indices encompass various climate factors such as the maximum daily temperature, warmth duration, total precipitation, heavy and extreme precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation, and consecutive drought duration. This evaluation helps us understand the potential climate exposure impacts on Georgia. The climate-induced geographic sensitivity is examined based on water stress, drought risk, and changes in soil productivity using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The climate-induced socio-economic sensitivity is determined using the Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP), Human Development Index, Education Index, and population density. The highest vulnerability to climate change was found in the Kakheti and Kvemo Kartli regions, with the vulnerability index values ranging from 6 to 15, followed by Mtskheta-Mtianeti, Samtskhe–Javakheti, and Shida Kartli with vulnerability index values ranging from 2 to 8. The location of these regions upstream of the Alazani-Iori, Khrami-Debeda, and Mktvari river basins indicates that the country’s water resources are vulnerable to climate change impacts in the future under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.

Spatio-temporal modelling suggests that some dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Geotrupidae) may respond to global warming by boosting dung removal

In the current framework of changes to the global climate, information on the thermal tolerance of dung beetles is crucial to understand how they might cope with increases in land temperature in terms of survival and ecosystem service provision. In this spatio-temporal modelling study, we investigated the thermal tolerance and effect of temperature changes on dung removal by three dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Geotrupidae) living within the 600–1400 m altitudinal belt in the Italian Alps. We chose large tunneler beetles because of their pivotal role in dung removal and nutrient recycling, important ecosystem services for maintaining the viability and profitability of the Alpine pastoral system. Our study used experimental data on dung removal at different temperatures to predict changes to this ecosystem service in the future considering different climatic scenarios and changes in land use for the specific study area. The results show that the temperature increases incurred between 1981 and 2005 may have boosted rates of spring dung removal across the entire study area (expressed as average dung removal per pair per month), partially compensating for the reduction in grassland extent within pasture-based livestock farming systems. Despite the limitations related to modelling future climate change scenarios and uncertainties deriving from several interacting factors (e.g., the sensitivity of large-bodied species to land-use changes), our results suggest that the predicted increases in temperature over the next 80 years would continue to boost dung removal, revealing a resilience of this service. The increase in dung removal rates, for all three species, is mainly related to the most extreme scenario of carbon emissions and for the months spanning from May to October of the interval 2041–2100. Focusing on large tunnelers and adopting a dynamic approach that considers changes in dung removal over space and time can assist ecosystem service conservation planning.

Oysters' Integration on Submerged Breakwaters Offers New Adaptive Shoreline Protection in Low‐Energy Environments in the Face of Sea Level Rise

AbstractSea level rise (SLR) and increasing storm frequency threaten coastal environments. Engineering solutions such as breakwaters will become ineffective for wave attenuation and erosion control due to SLR. As a natural alternative, oysters create three‐dimensional, complex reef structures that attenuate wave energy and increase sedimentation rates. If coupled with breakwaters, oysters may maintain breakwaters' efficiency over time as they are expected to grow with SLR. Here, we measured bathymetric changes over 3 years (via GPS) and wave dampening due to four‐made intertidal breakwaters within a small cove of the Choptank River (MD, USA). Then, we modeled the coupling of such gray structures with oysters through Delft3D‐SWAN to evaluate the performances of such hybrid solutions on coastal protection, under future scenarios of SLR and climate change. Modeling hydrodynamic results showed a gradual reduction in wave attenuation due to SLR. However, when oysters were included in the modeling, wave dampening in 100 years was 75% and 60% greater than gray breakwaters, at high and low tides, respectively. Morphodynamic results showed increasing net export of sediment from the coast due to SLR. Oyster addition also provided shoreline protection and sediment retention in 100 years compared with the use of breakwaters alone, thanks to oysters' capability to grow with SLR. The coupling between oysters and breakwaters may represent a valuable and effective methodology to protect our coast over a changing climate and a rising sea, where optimal conditions for oyster survivability occur and are maintained over time.

The Gulf toadfish goes south: assessing the potential habitat suitability of Opsanus beta in response to climate change

Climate change can directly influence invasive species range, and may reflect in greater habitat suitability, consequently increasing losses in native biodiversity. Habitat suitability modelling can help identify priority areas for conservation and rapid response for invasive taxa. This study aimed to model the habitat suitability of Opsanus beta, an invasive fish species, in South America under current and future climate change scenarios. Three modelling techniques, Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Maximum Entropy Algorithm (Maxent), and Random Forest (RF), were applied, and their results were compared and then put together in an Ensemble model to visualize habitat suitability. We found that the current habitat suitability of O. beta in South America is relatively low, with its occurrences mostly related to coastal port areas, suggesting that the species was introduced from ballast water. The increase in mean temperature at mean depth and temperature range were the most relevant variables influencing the species habitat suitability. The gradual increase in habitat suitability for the 2100 climate change scenarios, particularly in more severe climate change scenarios, such as the RCP 8.5, was also observed. The study highlights the critical need to use habitat suitability models to mitigate the impact of future climate change scenarios on invasive species. The findings call for preventive measures to be taken in time to prepare areas that may become the target of dispersal and establishment of O. beta.

Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three earth snakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther 1858) in central Mexico.

Anthropogenic land use and climate change are the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for many globally endangered reptile species. Earth snakes (Conopsis spp.) are a poorly studied group endemic to Mexico. They have limited dispersal abilities and specialized niches, making them particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to assess how future climate and land-cover change scenarios might influence the distribution and habitat connectivity of three earth snakes: Conopsis biserialis (Taylor and Smith), C. lineata (Kennicott), and C. nasus (Günther). Two climate models, CNRM-CM5 (CN) and MPI-ESM-LR (MP) (Representative Concentration Pathway 85), were explored with ENMeval Maxent modelling. Important SDM environmental variables and environmental niche overlap between species were also examined. We found that C. biserialis and C. lineata were restricted by maximum temperatures whereas C. nasus was restricted by minimum ones and was more tolerant to arid vegetation. C. biserialis and C. lineata were primarily distributed in the valleys and mountains of the highlands of the TMBV, while C. nasus was mainly distributed in the Altiplano Sur (Zacatecano-Potosino). C. lineatahad the smallest potential distribution and suffered the greatest contraction in the future whereas C. nasus was the least affected species in future scenarios. The Sierra de las Cruces and the Sierra Chichinautzin were identified as very important areas for connectivity. Our results suggest that C. lineata may be the most vulnerable of the three species to anthropogenic and climate changes whereas C. nasus seems to be less affected by global warming than the other species.

The Mitigation of Phytopathogens in Wheat under Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios: Next-Generation Microbial Inoculants

Wheat production worldwide faces numerous challenges linked to climate change, exponential population growth, nutrient depletion in agricultural soils, and the increasing threat of phytopathogen occurrence. The application of beneficial microorganisms is a promising strategy for crop management as it favorizes nutrient uptake, improves soil fertility, and increases plant resilience. Therefore, this approach facilitates the transition to more sustainable agricultural practices while reducing the dependence on agrochemicals. The valuable beneficial impacts of bioinoculant application include the enrichment of agricultural soils’ ecosystems by restoring microbial populations and interactions that have been lost through the years due to decades of intensive agricultural practices and the massive application of pesticides. Furthermore, beneficial microorganisms constitute a remarkable tool for combating biotic threats, specifically fungal pathogens, whose proliferation and emergence are predicted to increase due to global warming. To optimize their beneficial impact, bioinoculant development requires an extensive study of microbial interactions with plants and their surrounding ecosystem, to improve their composition, mode of action, and stability through application. The use of innovative tools, such as omic sciences, facilitates the elucidation of these mechanisms. Finally, bioprospection and bioformulation must be consciously executed to guarantee the application and persistence of adapted microorganisms and/or their bioactive molecules.

Photoprotective responses of three intertidal Antarctic macroalgae to short-term temperature stress

The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the highest warming rates globally. In polar regions, macroalgae thrive under extreme environmental conditions, which could worsen because of future climate change scenarios, including increased ultraviolet exposure, extremely low light availability, and fluctuating temperatures, particularly in the intertidal zones. To investigate the potential role of photoprotective and antioxidant mechanisms in response to future increases in sea surface temperatures caused by climate change, we conducted laboratory experiments using three intertidal macroalgae model species: Adenocystis utricularis (Ochrophyta, Phaeophyceae), Pyropia endiviifolia (Rhodophyta, Bangiophyceae), and Monostroma hariotii (Chlorophyta, Ulvophyceae). These algae were collected in Punta Artigas (King George Island, Antarctica) and acclimated at 2°C for 48 h. They were then assessed in laboratory experiments for up to 5 days under two treatments: (1) control conditions at 2°C and (2) elevated tem.perature conditions at 8°C, representing the most negative increment in SSTs estimated by the end of the 21st century. Carbon, nitrogen, pigments (chlorophylls and carotenoids), mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs), and phenolic compounds were quantified after 3 and 5 days of exposure. For M. hariotii, elevated temperatures led to an increase in the C/N ratio, total antioxidant capacity, and levels of nitrogen, total carotenoids, chlorophyll-a, pigments (chlorophyll-b and violaxanthin), and phenolic compounds. For A. utricularis, elevated temperatures led to elevated C/N ratio and levels of chlorophyll-a and carotenoids (fucoxanthin and β-carotene). For P. endiviifolia, elevated temperatures resulted in elevated levels of carotenoids (lutein and β-carotene), phenolic compounds, and MAAs (porphyra-334, shinorine, and palythine). Thus, our study suggests that increasing water temperatures due to global warming can enhance the photoprotective abilities of three Antarctic intertidal macroalgae (M. hariotii, A. utricularis, and P. endiviifolia), with each species showing specific responses.

Costs and benefits of climate services for heat-health adaptation in Europe

Abstract Background Climate services for health aim to support informed decision-making and enable early action and preparedness. More knowledge is still needed regarding the costs and benefits of climate services, as well as effectiveness, and technical, structural, and societal barriers and facilitators to implementation and use. Aim To map the evidence on the economic assessment and use of climate services for health in reducing heat-associated mortality and morbidity and explore the societal impact of climate services, particularly in Europe. Methods We focus on two methods in this study: 1) a scoping review of literature on the economic assessment and health benefit of climate services 2) a set of interviews with climate service developers and providers in Europe to understand further technical and societal aspects as well as evaluation of such services. Findings From the scoping review, a total of 27 peer-reviewed articles all presenting heat early warning systems (HEWS) that work on a weather timescale were identified. The results from economic assessment studies suggested HEWS can produce health benefits greater than the operational cost, even during future climate change scenarios. While most of the studies assessing health outcomes have suggested that HEWS can help in reducing heat-related mortality and morbidity, some concluded no significant impact and some suggested increased healthcare services utilization after implementation of HEWS. The findings from the six interviews conducted across Europe identifies barriers for climate service development and implementation such as insufficient financing and cultural differences between climate and health professionals. Conclusions Our results find limited evidence on the economic assessment of climate services, gap in knowledge regarding health benefits from climate services using seasonal/sub-seasonal and long-term climate information and several barriers to making these services useful for end-users.

Measuring the Burden of Climate-Related Asthma in Ireland via Microsimulation and Hybrid Costing

Abstract Asthma affects approximately 5.7% of EU citizens, with over 7.7% of Irish residents suffering from the condition. Climate change will significantly affect both the prevalence and severity of asthma via exposure to temporal stressors including fluctuating air quality, changing local vegetation patterns, and increasingly intense precipitation. Resulting asthma cases will result in significant additional costs and pressures on the healthcare sector, the magnitude of which however remains, to date, unclear. The current project will provide an econometric analysis of the public healthcare burden generated by climate-related asthma via a national longitudinal survey (n = 1,695) of asthma sufferers and semi-structured interviews with healthcare professionals. Current and future likely healthcare expenditures will be quantified using time-driven activity-based costing and microsimulation as a function of future demographic shifts and climate change scenarios. The indirect burden of climate-related effects will be calculated utilizing a hybrid set of physical, psychological, and economic burden-of-disease measures. Preliminary results indicate that asthma-related limitations on daily activities significantly impair males more than females (t = 2.937, p =.005), with decreases in quality of life significantly differing across age groups (F = 4.234, p =.003). The asthma-related toll on quality of life is further associated with presentation of adverse mental health effects including depression (r = -.301, p<.001) and anxiety (r = -.340, p<.001), indicating compounded physical and psychological health and economic susceptibilities within households with younger, male asthma patients. Findings will increase the current evidence-base for specific demographic groups across Ireland, enabling future budget allocation, surveillance, and healthcare management and providing a replicable model for surveillance of the economic burden of climate-related asthma across Europe. Key messages • The study will increase the evidence-base for budgetary allocation based on simulated health vulnerabilities and develop a baseline for research on climate-associated health outcomes. • The study will translate cross-sectoral health impacts into monetary “bottom lines” for elucidating health-related costs associated with specific climate change scenarios via hybrid costing.