Future Risk Management Research Articles

Call for Action for a Disaster Literacy Course for Disaster Risk Management Process.

There is a need to utilise formal education to ensure and support the effective participation of communities in the disaster risk management process. The negative outcomes of disasters occurring as a result of various disasters in Turkiye show that the society is inadequately prepared. Therefore, the best fight against disasters can be carried out within the scope of formal education activities. In this study, the content and infrastructure of a curriculum for the management of disaster risks at the university level is presented at the conceptual level. Disaster literacy curriculum can contribute to the management of current and future disaster risks. However, there is a need to expand the implementation and measurement of the effectiveness and feasibility of the curriculum as a public health intervention tool. Finally, the support of the national education system needs to be ensured.

Symptomatic patients without coronary artery disease do not have excess cardiovascular risk compared to the general population

Abstract Background Patients with stable angina with no coronary atherosclerosis by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) have a lower cardiovascular risk compared to CCTA patients with greater atherosclerotic burden. However, it remains unknown whether these symptomatic patients have excess cardiovascular risk when compared to the general population and if any excess risk is sex or age dependent. Purpose To examine the 10-year cardiovascular risk and mortality in patients with no coronary atherosclerosis by CCTA compared to a matched general population comparison cohort. Methods We included every symptomatic CCTA patient with no coronary artery disease (CAD), defined as no coronary plaques and Agatston calcium score of 0, in Western Denmark from 2008-2021. Each patient was matched by age and sex with 5 individuals with no previous history of ischemic heart disease from the Western Danish general population. Maximum follow-up was 10 years. Outcomes were myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and all-cause death. We estimated 10-year risk difference (RD) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) using a conditional Poisson regression, comparing patients with no CAD to the general population cohort. Additionally, we performed age- (<45 year, 45-65 years, and ≥65 years) and sex stratified analyses. Results We included 39,223 patients with no CAD who were matched with 196,115 individuals from the general population. Median age was 54 and 60% were women. Baseline use of anti-thrombotic agents, statins, and anti-hypertensive drugs was higher in patients with no CAD than the general population. Median follow-up was 6.1 years. CCTA patients with no CAD had lower risk of myocardial infarction [RD -0.2%, IRR 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.85)] and death [RD -3.3%, IRR 0.51 (95% CI 0.48-0.55)], but similar risk of ischemic stroke [RD 0.0%, IRR 0.93 (95% CI 0.84-1.02)] compared to the general population (Figure 1). However, patients <45 years had higher 10-year risk of both myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke despite absence of CAD by CCTA compared the general population (Figure 2). Conclusions Symptomatic patients without CAD by CCTA do not have excess cardiovascular risk when compared to a general population cohort without known ischemic heart disease. Future cardiovascular risk management of these patients should therefore follow primary prevention guidelines. However, patients <45 years did exhibit higher risk of ischemic outcomes and may require intensified preventative treatment.Figure 1Figure 2

Factors Influencing Green Construction Practices in Context of COVID-19 Pandemic: Empirical Evidence from China

Green construction practices (GCPs) are essential for the construction industry to achieve carbon neutral and sustainable development. However, the promotion of GCPs faces multifaceted challenges, particularly within the context of recent global uncertainties. The COVID-19 pandemic has wrought substantial disruption upon the construction sector, which makes it a good candidate as a case study for enhancing future risk management strategies. Currently, there is limited research on the factors influencing GCPs in the global uncertainty context. To bridge this research gap, this study first identifies 26 factors affecting GCPs in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic through a comprehensive literature review. Subsequently, based on feedback from 22 experts, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) and Matrice d’Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement (MICMAC) methodologies are adopted to illustrate the intricate relationships among influencing factors and further classify their relative importance. The results underscore the pivotal role of factors such as technology development, the difficulty of construction, materials, and equipment performance, as well as identify 13 factors that have a fundamental impact. This research provides insights for decision-makers to enhance risk management strategies for GCPs in the global uncertainty context, prioritize the determinants, and facilitate the optimal allocation of resources to advance GCPs.

Trade-offs and synergies pattern evolution of ecosystem structure-resilience-activity-services (SRAS) in the Belt and Road Initiative region

This study develops an analytical framework comprising “ecosystem pattern – trade-off and synergy process – multidimensional response mechanism – future risk management” to investigate the evolution of trade-off and synergy patterns of SRAS performance and its sustainability among BRI nations and 80 representative cities. The synergistic levels of SRAS in BRI countries declined, but will increase in the future, the increased trend of BRI cities will transfer to decline in the future. The interaction of multi-dimensional human urban activities could achieve a stronger impact on SRAS performance synergies of BRI countries and cities, and the PD-LU and PD-ED were the dominant interaction influence chains, respectively. This study was the first one to holistically reveal the evolution of trade-off and synergy patterns of SRAS performances, at both nation and city levels, in the BRI region. It also contributes new perspectives from the BRI region to the sustainable urban planning, terrestrial ecosystems conservation, and urban ecological governance programs.

Combined effects of polyamide microplastic and sulfamethoxazole in modulating the growth and transcriptome profile of hydroponically grown rice (Oryza sativa L.)

The use of reclaimed water from wastewater treatment plants for irrigation has a risk of introducing micropollutants such as microplastics (MPs) and antimicrobials (AMs) into the agroecosystem. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of single and combined treatment of 0.1 % polyamide (PA ∼15 μm), and varying sulfamethoxazole (SMX) levels 0, 10, 50, and 150 mg/L on rice seedlings (Oryza sativa L.) for 12 days. The study aimed to assess the impact of these contaminants on the morphological, physiological, and biochemical parameters of the rice plants. The findings revealed that rice seedlings were not sensitive to PA alone. However, SMX alone or in combination with PA, significantly inhibited shoot and root growth, total biomass, and affected photosynthetic pigments. Higher concentrations of SMX increased antioxidant enzyme activity, indicating oxidative stress. The roots had a higher SMX content than the shoots, and the concentration of minerals such as iron, copper, and magnesium were reduced in roots treated with SMX. RNA-seq analysis showed changes in the expression of genes related to stress, metabolism, and transport in response to the micropollutants. Overall, this study provides valuable insights on the combined impacts of MPs and AMs on food crops, the environment, and human health in future risk assessments and management strategies in using reclaimed water.

Toxic effects of multi-walled carbon nanotubes and ZnO nanoparticle exposure on pathology and apoptosis on the liver of Cyprinus carpio

ZnO nanoparticles (ZnONPs) and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) are frequently used nanoparticles with unique features. Aquatic organisms are exposed to a combination of contaminants in natural water systems, so the combination effect of two or more nanomaterials has caused much concern. In this study, the toxicity to the liver of common carp was explored under four weeks of exposure to single ZnONPs or in combination with multi-walled CNTs (MWCNTs). The results demonstrated that ZnONPs induced pathological changes and apoptosis in the liver. In combination, decreased pathological changes were observed in the LSC-ZnONPs group (50 mg L-1 ZnONPs and 0.25 mg L-1 MWCNTs) at the microscopic level and ultrastructural level, and increased pathological changes in the HSC-ZnONPs group (50 mg L-1 ZnONPs and 2.5 mg L-1 MWCNTs). A 52% reduction in the percentage of TUNEL-positive nuclei in the LSC-ZnONPs group and a 33% increase in the HSC-ZnONPs group were observed compared to the ZnONPs group. The mRNA expression of apoptosis-related genes, including caspase3, BAX, and XBP1, were significantly up-regulated in the exposure groups, confirming the occurrence of apoptosis. Significantly decreased caspase 3 and BAX mRNA levels in the co-exposure groups were detected compared to the ZnONPs group. Nevertheless, the XBP1 mRNA level was significantly upregulated in the LSC-ZnONPs group, but downregulated in the HSC-ZnONPs group, indicating multiple signal pathways involved in the apoptosis. In conclusion, a low concentration of MWCNTs (0.25 mg L-1) decreased the toxic effect of ZnONPs on common carp, but a high concentration of MWCNTs (2.5 mg L-1) enhanced it. This study will contribute to developing future risk assessment and management strategies for nanomaterials.

Incorporation crisis lifecycle theory into full-stage flash drought spatio-temporal pattern identification and risk analysis

Compared to conventional slow-developing droughts, the characteristics and drivers of flash droughts are often more complex. This complexity challenges global drought early warning systems, leading to severe losses in crop yields during flash drought events. To address this problem, our study introduces the Full Life Cycle Flash Drought Identification Framework (FLCFDIF), which incorporates crisis lifecycle theories to link the lifecycle progression of flash droughts with corresponding risk management measures. The results indicate significant differences in the risk characteristics of flash drought events are observed between monsoon and non-monsoon regions of China, with flash droughts in monsoon regions erupting more rapidly, lasting longer, and recovering more slowly than flash droughts in non-monsoon areas. Flash droughts typically feature negative precipitation anomalies and positive anomalies in maximum temperature and evapotranspiration during the progression of the droughts. However, the high-intensity precipitation events that drive flash drought recovery primarily occur during the termination phase rather than the previously assumed recovery phase. Therefore, employing a 40% soil moisture percentile as a threshold for determining the end of flash droughts can reduce disturbances from low-intensity precipitation events and establish a link between flash droughts and seasonal droughts. In Southeast China, the probability of flash droughts transitioning to seasonal droughts is approximately 10%. In future flash drought risk management, it is crucial to integrate the four stages of flash drought progression (development, duration, recovery, and termination) and implement timely emergency response actions, including warning, assessment, mitigation, and monitoring, to address the environmental impacts of flash drought events.

Assessing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions on Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index using GARCH-M (1,1) models

This study aims to explore the impact of coronavirus pandemic-related variables and non-pharmaceutical interventions on fluctuations in the Malaysian stock market during the period from January 7, 2020, to March 31, 2021. By employing GARCH-M (1,1) family models (GARCH-M, EGARCH-M, and PGARCH-M), the study seeks to understand the intricate dynamics of market volatility amidst the pandemic and associated interventions. The findings suggest that while past market volatility and conditional variance continue to influence current market fluctuations, their effects have diminished over time during the study period. Additionally, the EGARCH-M (1,1) model reveals a leverage effect, indicating increased market volatility following negative news compared to positive news. Interestingly, the EGARCH-M (1,1) model emerges as the optimal choice for accurately capturing data dynamics. Conversely, the PGARCH-M (1,1) model does not exhibit a statistically significant leverage effect. These insights contribute to a better understanding of market behavior during crises, informing future research and risk management strategies. AcknowledgmentThe authors are grateful to the Middle East University, Amman, Jordan, for the full financial support granted to this research paper.

Cardiotoxicity risk induced by sanitary insecticide Dimefluthrin

Dimefluthrin (DIM) is a commonly utilized sanitary insecticide, predominantly employed for indoor pest management within residential and public environments directly interacting with human habitation. However, the usage of DIM is escalating with increasing mosquito resistance, prompting concerns about its health risks. Here, using zebrafish as a research model, we systematically evaluated DIM's impact on human health. Findings revealed significant health hazards during embryonic development, including reduced hatching rates, shortened body lengths, and organ malformations, notably affecting the heart. It was explored the mechanism of DIM-induced cardiotoxicity in zebrafish, and histopathological analyses revealed that DIM resulted in ventricular linearization in zebrafish embryos. Antioxidant enzyme activities were reduced and cardiac reactive oxygen species (ROS) accumulated after DIM exposure, suggesting clear signs of oxidative stress. Additionally, acridine orange (AO) staining and caspase-3 immunofluorescence demonstrated cardiac apoptosis in Tg (kdrl: EGFP) zebrafish. qPCR analysis implied that DIM induced apoptosis via the p53/Caspase pathway by up-regulating the expression levels of p53, cytochrome C (cyto-C), caspase-9, and caspase-3. Together, our work provided a systematic perspective on the cardiotoxicity of sanitary pesticides, which could offer opportunities for future risk management.

Mapping of Land Surface Deformation Using Ps-Insar for Disaster Risk Management in the Future

DKI Jakarta is experiencing land subsidence due to overexploitation of its use and the increasing population. It is feared that this decline or deformation will occur in the location of the new national capital. The research objective is "Mapping of Land Surface Deformation using PS-InSAR for Disaster Risk Management in the Future." Quantitative and qualitative research and data collection methods use secondary and primary data. Secondary data in the form of Permanent Scatterers Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) Sentinel-1A images to determine soil deformation. Primary data uses a questionnaire to assess disaster risk management. Data analysis uses spatial and statistical analysis. Spatial analysis for land deformation mapping and statistical analysis for risk management. The results showed that the pattern of land deformation before the determination of the location of the capital city of Indonesia was random. On the other hand, after decision-making, it appears to be more systematic and homogeneous in adjacent areas with a decreasing range of about 5 cm per year. Other findings show that disaster risk management carried out by several agencies, especially the problem of land deformation in East Kalimantan, is still far from expectations and very minimal. The findings can be used for future disaster risk management to minimize negative impacts and reduce disaster risk.Keywords: PS-INSAR; Land Deformation; Capital City; Disaster Risk Management

Extent of investigation and management of cases of ‘unexplained’ mismatch repair deficiency (u-dMMR): a UK Cancer Genetics Group consensus

BackgroundMismatch repair deficiency (dMMR) is a characteristic feature of cancers linked to Lynch syndrome. However, in most cases, it results from sporadic somatic events rather than hereditary factors. The term...

Analisis Manajemen Risiko Sistem Informasi Akuntansi Pada PT. Batu Bara XYZ ISO 31000:2018

This study employs the ISO 31000:2018 framework to manage the accounting information system risks at PT. Batu Bara XYZ. It identifies, analyzes, evaluates, and treats risks accordingly. The findings reveal that classifying risks based on their likelihood and impact assists the company in planning effective risk management strategies. The implementation of the ISO 31000:2018 framework enables the company to better manage risks and enhance information security. The research aims to analyze the risk management of the accounting information system at PT. Batu Bara XYZ using the ISO 31000:2018 framework. A case study and quantitative approach were utilized as research methods. The study results demonstrate the identification, analysis, and evaluation of various potential risks affecting the company's accounting information system. This research is expected to provide insights into best practices and challenges faced, as well as offer recommendations for future risk management improvements.

Machine Learning in Credit Risk Forecasting —— A Survey on Credit Risk Exposure

Machine Learning in Credit Risk Forecasting —— A Survey on Credit Risk Exposure

Distribution characteristics and investigation evaluation of ammonia nitrogen in the soil and groundwater of a chemical plant

ABSTRACT In this study, we analyzed the distribution characteristics of ammonia nitrogen, and evaluated the pollution status of the soil and groundwater in this legacy site. The results revealed that the concentration of ammonia nitrogen in the soil ranged from 2.36 to 32.7 mg/kg, and the areas with higher ammonia nitrogen concentration were the compression workshop, conversion workshop, sewage treatment area, and slag yard, the concentration of ammonia nitrogen in these areas ranged from 10.1 to 32.7 mg/kg. The groundwater ammonia nitrogen concentration ranged from 0.04 to 1.47 mg/L, the average value was 0.526 mg/L. Soil and groundwater ammonia nitrogen pollution in the plant area was mainly attributed to the node leakage of waste water pipes, and the investigation and evaluation results revealed that the soil test results of this site are consistent with the corresponding screening values. As the groundwater in this site is not used for drinking and other purposes, its risk to human health is considered acceptable. The detection indicators of groundwater in some plots exceed the Class III or IV standards, so long-term monitoring and retrospective risk assessment are the focus of future risk management and control of the plots.

Advanced risk assessment framework for land subsidence impacts on transmission towers in salt lake region

To ensure the continuous transmission of clean energy for electricity, transmission towers often traverse geologically challenging terrains. This is particularly evident in the Salt Lake region, where the convergence of unique geological attributes and environmental stressors leads to recurrent land subsidence incidents, jeopardizing the integrity of power lines. In light of the prohibitive costs associated with indiscriminate remedial actions, precision in risk assessment and management is imperative to streamline these interventions. The objective of this study is to propose an accurate and effective framework for assessing the risk of land subsidence for power transmission towers. To achieve this, by utilizing the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) technology and cross-validation from field investigations, representative sample disaster datasets of surface deformation points of transmission towers are obtained in the first. Two optimization approaches for susceptibility modeling were employed to further enhance the susceptibility model for land subsidence and obtain high-precision susceptibility results along the transmission towers. Then, combined on-site damage investigation with SBAS-InSAR technology to conduct subsidence vulnerability analysis of transmission towers. Finally, the ultimate outcome of this process was the development of a risk assessment matrix based on spatial probability (susceptibility) and damage scales (vulnerability), aimed at more accurately assessing land subsidence risk. This framework could identify the spatial distribution of subsidence susceptibility in transmission towers exposed to potential damage, which could be followed by a more detailed transmission tower-based vulnerability and risk assessment. The method has been successfully applied in the Salt Lake area, and the susceptibility results based on the Grey Wolf Optimization-Random Forest (GW0-RF) model have shown the best modeling effect, and the area under of receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.95. The vulnerability results show that 105 towers have been most severely damaged by land subsidence The risk distribution map shows that the central part of the Salt Lake area is the core zone for future land subsidence risk management. A total of 101 towers are in the high and very high risk level. The insights garnered from this investigation furnish a comprehensive understanding of the risk landscape for transmission towers, underpinning future-focused design, planning, and management strategies.

Cryptocurrency Investment Risks and Perceived Usefulness: Basis of Cryptocurrency Risk Management Plan

The surging popularity of cryptocurrencies presents both opportunities and challenges. While some view it as the future of finance, others remain concerned about investment risks. This uncertainty creates difficulties for consumers and financial institutions. To address this gap, the study assessed consumer perceptions of cryptocurrency investment risks and perceived usefulness, aiming to identify new avenues for transactions and investments. Employing a quantitative descriptive approach, a survey was conducted among 150 individuals from two (2) cities in the Philippines using a validated instrument and the Technological Acceptance Model (TAM). Results showed that consumers perceived moderate risk across trust, privacy, security, and financial aspects. No significant demographic variations were found in risk perception or perceived usefulness. These findings suggest a generally positive consumer attitude toward cryptocurrency investment despite the risks. This implies the possibility of widespread adoption if expectations align with the technology’s actual capabilities. Ultimately, this study offers valuable insights into consumer decision-making, which can inform future risk management strategies in the cryptocurrency landscape. It focuses on a geographically under-researched population (Philippines). This research contributes valuable insights for policymakers and industry leaders developing strategies to promote responsible cryptocurrency adoption across diverse user groups, particularly in emerging markets.

Prevalence of H. pylori and Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Carriers.

BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers may be at increased risk for gastric cancer; however, the mechanisms of gastric carcinogenesis remain poorly understood. We sought to determine the prevalence of gastric cancer risk factors Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection and gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) among BRCA1/2 carriers to gain insight into the pathogenesis of gastric cancer in this population. A total of 100 unselected BRCA1/2 carriers who underwent endoscopic ultrasound from March 2022 to March 2023 underwent concomitant upper endoscopy with nontargeted gastric antrum and body biopsies. The study population (70% women; mean age 60.1 years) included 66% BRCA2 carriers. H. pylori was detected in one (1%) individual, 7 (7%) had GIM, 2 (2%) had autoimmune atrophic gastritis, and no gastric cancers were diagnosed. Among BRCA1/2 carriers, H. pylori prevalence was low and GIM prevalence was similar to that in the general population; however, identification of H. pylori or GIM may help inform future gastric cancer risk management strategies in BRCA1/2 carriers. Prevention Relevance: Evaluating the burden of H. pylori infection and GIM among BRCA1/2 carriers is warranted to better understand the mechanisms of gastric carcinogenesis and to help inform risk management strategies for gastric cancer among this at-risk population.

Trends in Burdens of Disease by Transmission Source (USA, 2005–2020) and Hazard Identification for Foods: Focus on Milkborne Disease

BackgroundRobust solutions to global, national, and regional burdens of communicable and non-communicable diseases, particularly related to diet, demand interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary collaborations to effectively inform risk analysis and policy decisions.ObjectiveU.S. outbreak data for 2005–2020 from all transmission sources were analyzed for trends in the burden of infectious disease and foodborne outbreaks.MethodsOutbreak data from 58 Microsoft Access® data tables were structured using systematic queries and pivot tables for analysis by transmission source, pathogen, and date. Trends were examined using graphical representations, smoothing splines, Spearman’s rho rank correlations, and non-parametric testing for trend. Hazard Identification was conducted based on the number and severity of illnesses.ResultsThe evidence does not support increasing trends in the burden of infectious foodborne disease, though strongly increasing trends were observed for other transmission sources. Morbidity and mortality were dominated by person-to-person transmission; foodborne and other transmission sources accounted for small portions of the disease burden. Foods representing the greatest hazards associated with the four major foodborne bacterial diseases were identified. Fatal foodborne disease was dominated by fruits, vegetables, peanut butter, and pasteurized dairy.ConclusionThe available evidence conflicts with assumptions of zero risk for pasteurized milk and increasing trends in the burden of illness for raw milk. For future evidence-based risk management, transdisciplinary risk analysis methodologies are essential to balance both communicable and non-communicable diseases and both food safety and food security, considering scientific, sustainable, economic, cultural, social, and political factors to support health and wellness for humans and ecosystems.

Construction of a Climate Early Warning System: Predicting Future Temperatures and Climate Security Using BiLSTM

In light of the worsening global climate, providing predictive models for surface temperature and energy consumption is crucial for formulating effective climate action strategies. Initially, a Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network model is established to predict the maximum surface temperatures over the next century, with the Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model serving as a benchmark. To assess the risk levels of climate security, the k-means clustering algorithm is utilized to classify the growth rates of carbon dioxide emissions, enabling the construction of a three-tier climate security early warning index. Subsequently, a hybrid classification model based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) takes the energy consumption growth rates as inputs and the warning indices as outputs to construct a climate security early warning system. The BiLSTM model is employed to predict the energy consumption growth rates for the upcoming decade, and these rates are input into the SVM-RF model to forecast future warning levels. The study demonstrates that the model can effectively predict the maximum surface temperatures and provide a three-tier safety warning system for future climate risk management. The intent of this research is to offer a novel tool for global climate prevention and to deliver practical application value to policymakers in finance, energy, and environmental sectors.

A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Seafood.

Invasive listeriosis, due to its severe nature in susceptible populations, has been the focus of many quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models aiming to provide a valuable guide in future risk management efforts. A review of the published QRA models of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood was performed, with the objective of appraising the effectiveness of the control strategies at different points along the food chain. It is worth noting, however, that the outcomes of a QRA model are context-specific, and influenced by the country and target population, the assumptions that are employed, and the model architecture itself. Studies containing QRA models were retrieved through a literature search using properly connected keywords on Scopus and PubMed®. All 13 QRA models that were recovered were of short scope, covering, at most, the period from the end of processing to consumption; the majority (85%) focused on smoked or gravad fish. Since the modelled pathways commenced with the packaged product, none of the QRA models addressed cross-contamination events. Many models agreed that keeping the product's temperature at 4.0-4.5 °C leads to greater reductions in the final risk of listeriosis than reducing the shelf life by one week and that the effectiveness of both measures can be surpassed by reducing the initial occurrence of L. monocytogenes in the product (at the end of processing). It is, therefore, necessary that future QRA models for RTE seafood contain a processing module that can provide insight into intervention strategies that can retard L. monocytogenes' growth, such as the use of bacteriocins, ad hoc starter cultures and/or organic acids, and other strategies seeking to reduce cross-contamination at the facilities, such as stringent controls for sanitation procedures. Since risk estimates were shown to be moderately driven by growth kinetic parameters, namely, the exponential growth rate, the minimum temperature for growth, and the maximum population density, further work is needed to reduce uncertainties.