Future Reliance Research Articles

Oxygen Storage Incorporated Into Net Power and the Allam–Fetvedt Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Power Cycle—Techno-Economic Analysis

Abstract With the planned future reliance on variable renewable energy, the ability to store energy for prolonged time periods will be required to reduce the disruption of market fluctuations. This paper presents a method to analyze a hybrid liquid-oxygen (LOx) storage/direct-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycle and optimize the economic performance over a diverse range of scenarios. The system utilizes a modified version of the NET Power process to produce energy when energy demand exceeds the supply while displacing much of the cost of the air separation unit (ASU) energy requirements through cryogenic storage of oxygen. The model uses marginal cost of energy data to determine the optimal times to charge and discharge the system over a given scenario. The model then applies ramp rates and other time-dependent factors to generate an economic model for the system without storage considerations. The size of the storage system is then applied to create a realistic model of the plant operation. From the real plant operation model, the amount of energy charged and discharged, the capital expenditures (CAPEX) of each system, energy costs and revenue and other parameters can be calculated. The economic parameters are then combined to calculate the net present value (NPV) of the system for the given scenario. The model was then run through the SMPSO genetic algorithm in Python for a variety of geographic regions and large-scale scenarios (high solar penetration) to maximize the NPV based on multiple parameters for each subsystem. The LOx storage requirements will also be discussed.

Report of the First ONTOX Stakeholder Network Meeting: Digging Under the Surface of ONTOX Together With the Stakeholders.

The first Stakeholder Network Meeting of the EU Horizon 2020-funded ONTOX project was held on 13-14 March 2023, in Brussels, Belgium. The discussion centred around identifying specific challenges, barriers and drivers in relation to the implementation of non-animal new approach methodologies (NAMs) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), in order to help address the issues and rank them according to their associated level of difficulty. ONTOX aims to advance the assessment of chemical risk to humans, without the use of animal testing, by developing non-animal NAMs and PRA in line with 21st century toxicity testing principles. Stakeholder groups (regulatory authorities, companies, academia, non-governmental organisations) were identified and invited to participate in a meeting and a survey, by which their current position in relation to the implementation of NAMs and PRA was ascertained, as well as specific challenges and drivers highlighted. The survey analysis revealed areas of agreement and disagreement among stakeholders on topics such as capacity building, sustainability, regulatory acceptance, validation of adverse outcome pathways, acceptance of artificial intelligence (AI) in risk assessment, and guaranteeing consumer safety. The stakeholder network meeting resulted in the identification of barriers, drivers and specific challenges that need to be addressed. Breakout groups discussed topics such as hazard versus risk assessment, future reliance on AI and machine learning, regulatory requirements for industry and sustainability of the ONTOX Hub platform. The outputs from these discussions provided insights for overcoming barriers and leveraging drivers for implementing NAMs and PRA. It was concluded that there is a continued need for stakeholder engagement, including the organisation of a 'hackathon' to tackle challenges, to ensure the successful implementation of NAMs and PRA in chemical risk assessment.

School truancy and welfare receipt dynamics in early adulthood: A longitudinal study

School truancy is associated with many negative life outcomes, including violent, property, and drug offending, lower levels of education, and subsequently lower status and lower-paying jobs. These negative life outcomes are also related to future reliance on government welfare payments. This research sought to identify how high school truancy affects young people's welfare receipt dynamics in emerging adulthood. It uses longitudinal data from a nationally representative household panel survey (the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey) to estimate the effect of truancy on young people's likelihood of receiving government-paid cash transfers in emerging adulthood. We find that young people who are truant are over four times more likely to receive cash transfers than young people who are not truant. Findings also show that the extent of truancy does not impact the likelihood of welfare receipt, even when differentiating between infrequent and problem truants. We conclude with some comments on truancy's role in welfare dynamics.

Opioid prescribing patterns for acute pain.

The current study aimed to identify patients presenting with acute pain who may be at risk for a complicated trajectory, via identifying clusters of early opioid prescribing patterns. National Veterans Affairs administrative data were utilized to build a cohort of outpatients with acute pain presentations and no more than minimal opioid use in the prior year. Latent Class Analyses (LCAs) identified clusters of early opioid prescribing patterns. The risk of progression to long-term opioid use was contrasted between LCA clusters using log-binomial regression, adjusting for confounding variables. The 2018 cohort included N=191,283. Among the 27,890 who received an initial opioid prescription, LCA classes were identified using: first supply day, total days dispensed across 30 days, opioid type, dose and number of prescriptions across the first 30 days. In the three-class model: class 1 indicated an immediate, low-dose and brief supply; class 2 included delayed, low-dose and longer duration prescriptions and class 3 included delayed, high-dose and moderate duration prescriptions. Adjusted relative risk ratios for progression to long-term opioid use in the following year were 3.33 (95% CI: 2.71-4.10) for class 1 (absolute risk 1.1%); 7.76 (95% CI: 6.69-8.99) for class 2 (3.1%) and 6.81 (95% CI: 5.72-8.12) for class 3 (2.4%) compared to patients who did not receive an acute opioid prescription (0.3%). These clusters of acute opioid prescribing could facilitate the identification of patients who may benefit from enhanced pain care earlier in the pain trajectory and decrease future reliance on long-term opioid therapy.

Lithium Storage and Release From Lacustrine Sediments: Implications for Lithium Enrichment and Sustainability in Continental Brines

AbstractDespite current and projected future reliance on lithium (Li) as a resource, deficiencies remain in genesis models of closed‐basin Li brines. Subsurface geochemical interactions between water and bulk solid phases from lacustrine sediments, are shown here to be the most important process for brine genesis and sustainability of the Clayton Valley, NV brine deposit. A new subsurface basin model was developed and used to select Li‐bearing solids to test the release mechanisms for Li. Ash (20–350 ppm Li) and bulk sediments (1,000–1,700 ppm Li) samples across depths in the basin represent the majority of the subsurface Li‐bearing materials. Temperature dependent (25°C–95°C) batch reaction experiments using low‐salinity groundwater from the basin indicate a positive relationship between the amount of Li released and temperature. Four‐step sequential extractions on a subset of bulk sediments indicate most Li is released from water and weak acid‐soluble portions with approximately 30% of the total Li contained in the sediments released overall. We conceptualize that Li is released from these samples via three mechanisms: (a) release of adsorbed Li; (b) cation exchange of Li and Mg and; (c) possible minor release from the silicate structure at elevated temperatures. Based on these results and the abundance of Li‐bearing sediments in the subsurface we estimate the mean Li mass in the basin materials to be between 24.4 and 58.0 Mt which provides a continuous supply from water‐rock interactions. This is now the largest known accumulation of Li in a basin‐fill continental setting on a global scale.

Ollie Jay: managing heat, improving health

Ollie Jay: managing heat, improving health

Combined mechanistic modelling predicts changes in species distribution and increased co‐occurrence of a tropical urchin herbivore and a habitat‐forming temperate kelp

AbstractAimIdentify climate change impacts on spawning and settlement of a tropical herbivore (Tripneustes), optimal habitat of a temperate kelp (Ecklonia) and implications for these species regions of interaction under future climate.LocationAlong eastern Australia and into the Tasman Sea including Lord Howe Island (LHI).Time periodA contemporary scenario (2006–2015) and future “business as usual” RCP 8.5 climate change scenario (2090–2100).Major taxa studiedThe tropical sea urchin, Tripneustes gratilla, and the temperate kelp, Ecklonia radiata.MethodsWe combined mechanistic models to create a predictive map of Ecklonia and Tripneustes distributions, and their future potential to co‐occur. We use 3D velocity and temperature fields produced with a state‐of‐the‐art configuration of the Ocean Forecasting Model version 3 that simulates the contemporary oceanic environment and projects it under an RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. We map the contemporary and future Ecklonia's realized and fundamental thermal niche; and simulate Tripneustes larval dispersal under both climate scenarios.ResultsBased on the thermal affinity of kelp and increases in projected temperatures, we predict a poleward range contraction of ~530 km by 2100 for kelp on Australia's east coast. Climate‐driven changes in dispersal of Tripneustes lead to its range expansion into Bass Strait and poleward, ~340–650 km further into Ecklonia's habitat range inducing new areas of co‐occurrence in the future. We find warming decreases spawning and settlement of Tripneustes in the tropics by 43%, and causes significant connectivity changes for LHI with future reliance on self‐recruitment.Major conclusionsWe predict novel regions of co‐occurrence between a temperate Ecklonia and tropical Tripneustes species which may lead to greater loss of kelp. Our results provide a new modelling approach for predicting species range shifts that is transferable to other marine ecosystems; it considers species response to abiotic change, predicts spatial spread and anticipates new regions for species interactions.

Does machine learning improve prediction of VA primary care reliance?

The Veterans Affairs (VA) Health Care System is among the largest integrated health systems in the United States. Many VA enrollees are dual users of Medicare, and little research has examined methods to most accurately predict which veterans will be mostly reliant on VA services in the future. This study examined whether machine learning methods can better predict future reliance on VA primary care compared with traditional statistical methods. Observational study of 83,143 VA patients dually enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare using VA and Medicare administrative databases and the 2012 Survey of Healthcare Experiences of Patients. The primary outcome was a dichotomous measure denoting whether patients obtained more than 50% of all primary care visits (VA + Medicare) from VA. We compared the performance of 6 candidate models-logistic regression, elastic net regression, decision trees, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and neural network-in predicting 2013 reliance as a function of 61 patient characteristics observed in 2012. We measured performance using the cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) metric. Overall, 72.9% and 74.5% of veterans were mostly VA reliant in 2012 and 2013, respectively. All models had similar average AUROCs, ranging from 0.873 to 0.892. The best-performing model used gradient boosting machine, which exhibited modestly higher AUROC and similar variance compared with standard logistic regression. The modest gains in performance from the best-performing model, gradient boosting machine, are unlikely to outweigh inherent drawbacks, including computational complexity and limited interpretability compared with traditional logistic regression.

Unconventional and Conventional Oil Production Impacts on Oil Price - Lessons Learnt with Glance to the Future

Energy is not a traditional commodity where low prices is always good news! It might be good for some, but definitely, not the case for many. Energy resources including, fossil fuels and renewables, have a significant impact on our day to day activities and they have been prime contributors to our lives retention, advancements and upheaval of the world economy at large. As a result, oil has not only played the role of the master commodity on a financial and economical level, but has also extended its supreme impact to the social, sociopolitical and geopolitical aspects of the modern world. However, it is peculiar to note that even with this significance, the oil industry has been experiencing various economic shocks over the past decades. Such shocks have directly been reflected in oil price fluctuations within a dynamic and short timeframe. With the OPEC and non-OPEC production fluctuations against consistent economic growth, worldwide geopolitical conflicts and the ongoing competition between conventional and unconventional oil reserves, the swings in oil prices have become a phenomenon which is worth understanding and analyzing in order to prospect its future trends on the long run. The key question to examine is whether the recently experienced battle between production rate and oil prices will continue affecting the global market over the coming years. This study explores various factors formulating the volatile behavior of oil prices and links the contemporary situations to the historical oil price spikes and trends related to specific events that we know and several others hidden beneath. One of the main key drives for the current oil crisis is presumed to be the active production of unconventional oil which poses a significant threat to conventional oil producers and has extended its impact to both political and economic levels. Furthermore, the future of conventional oil reserves is analyzed in depth based on generated empirical models prospecting the future profiles of various extractable ultimate recoverable (EUR) scenarios while considering external factors such as socio-political and economic growth. The decline rate of conventional oil reserves productivity is expected to be prominent over the next decades as depicted by this study. This further supports our conclusion that the current positive supply oil price shock and the active emergence of unconventional oil will lead to a disruption in the future reliance and usage of conventional oil.

Longer wait times affect future use of VHA primary care

BackgroundImproving access to the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) is a high priority, particularly given statutory mandates of the Veterans Access, Choice and Accountability Act. This study examined whether patient-reported wait times for VHA appointments were associated with future reliance on VHA primary care services. MethodsThis observational study examined 13,595 VHA patients dually enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare. Data sources included VHA administrative data, Medicare claims and the Survey of Healthcare Experiences of Patients (SHEP). Primary care use was defined as the number of face-to-face visits from VHA and Medicare in the 12 months following SHEP completion. VHA reliance was defined as the number of VHA visits divided by total visits (VHA+Medicare). Wait times were derived from SHEP responses measuring the usual number of days to a VHA appointment with patients’ primary care provider for those seeking immediate care. We defined appointment wait times categorically: 0 days, 1day, 2–3 days, 4–7 days and >7 days. We used fractional logistic regression to examine the relationship between wait times and reliance. ResultsMean VHA reliance was 88.1% (95% CI = 86.7% to 89.5%) for patients reporting 0day waits. Compared with these patients, reliance over the subsequent year was 1.4 (p = 0.041), 2.8 (p = 0.001) and 1.6 (p = 0.014) percentage points lower for patients waiting 2–3 days, 4–7 days and >7 days, respectively. ConclusionsPatients reporting longer usual wait times for immediate VHA care exhibited lower future reliance on VHA primary care. ImplicationsLonger wait times may reduce care continuity and impact cost shifting across two federal health programs.

Radionuclide removal by apatite

A growing body of research supports widespread future reliance on apatite for radioactive waste cleanup. Apatite is a multi-functional radionuclide sorbent that lowers dissolved radionuclide concentrations by surface sorption, ion exchange, surface precipitation, and by providing phosphate to precipitate low-solubility radionuclide-containing minerals. Natural apatites are rich in trace elements, and apatite’s stability in the geologic record suggest that radionuclides incorporated into apatite, whether in a permeable reactive barrier or a waste form, are likely to remain isolated from the biosphere for long periods of time. Here we outline the mineralogic and surface origins of apatite-radionuclide reactivity and show how apatites might be used to environmental advantage in the future.

Wells turbine for wave energy conversion: a review

In the past twenty years, the use of wave energy systems has significantly increased, generally depending on the oscillating water column (OWC) concept. Wells turbine is one of the most efficient OWC technologies. This article provides an updated and a comprehensive account of the state of the art research on Wells turbine. Hence, it draws a roadmap for the contemporary challenges which may hinder future reliance on such systems in the renewable energy sector. In particular, the article is concerned with the research directions and methodologies which aim at enhancing the performance and efficiency of Wells turbine. The article also provides a thorough discussion of the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for performance modeling and design optimization of Wells turbine. It is found that a numerical model using the CFD code can be employed successfully to calculate the performance characteristics of W-T as well as other experimental and analytical methods. The increase of research papers about CFD, especially in the last five years, indicates that there is a trend that considerably depends on the CFD method.

The U.S. Strategic Paradox, Third-Party Proxies, and Special Operations Forces

The author argues that the United States faces a strategic paradox where values conflict with the ability to develop and implement coherent strategies in the complex and dynamic world of today and the future. Special Operations Forces’ ability to be effective in the contexts of foreign environments may mean future reliance on proxy forces that offer plausible deniability for U.S policy makers. However, such opportunities come with a potential of heightened strategic risk that must be carefully managed and judged. The author provides examples of historical cases of effective use of third-party proxies, which may become a template for partner nations and Special Operations Forces to effectively meet future challenges while coping with the strategic paradox that currently limits capabilities.

Reservoir Sedimentation and Upstream Sediment Sources: Perspectives and Future Research Needs on Streambank and Gully Erosion.

The future reliance on water supply and flood control reservoirs across the globe will continue to expand, especially under a variable climate. As the inventory of new potential dam sites is shrinking, construction of additional reservoirs is less likely compared to simultaneous flow and sediment management in existing reservoirs. One aspect of this sediment management is related to the control of upstream sediment sources. However, key research questions remain regarding upstream sediment loading rates. Highlighted in this article are research needs relative to measuring and predicting sediment transport rates and loading due to streambank and gully erosion within a watershed. For example, additional instream sediment transport and reservoir sedimentation rate measurements are needed across a range of watershed conditions, reservoir sizes, and geographical locations. More research is needed to understand the intricate linkage between upland practices and instream response. A need still exists to clarify the benefit of restoration or stabilization of a small reach within a channel system or maturing gully on total watershed sediment load. We need to better understand the intricate interactions between hydrological and erosion processes to improve prediction, location, and timing of streambank erosion and failure and gully formation. Also, improved process-based measurement and prediction techniques are needed that balance data requirements regarding cohesive soil erodibility and stability as compared to simpler topographic indices for gullies or stream classification systems. Such techniques will allow the research community to address the benefit of various conservation and/or stabilization practices at targeted locations within watersheds.

Straight Line Method of Depreciation and Financial Information Quality of Nigerian Service Companies

Financial information quality had not received the necessary attention it deserves until recent years following reported cases and consequences of corporate scandals and failures. In adopting generally accepted accounting principles, the preparers of financial statements seem to believe that they are providing adequate and reliable financial information. However, this may not meet the diversified needs of the investors and prediction ability for future reliance. This may be as a result of adopting inappropriate financial and accounting policy capable of influence misleading operational result that can lead to corporate failures. One aspects of the inappropriate policy for the purpose of this study is depreciation policy. One basic problem that needs to be addressed is whether financial information which has features of high quality standard will automatically provide solution to this inappropriate policy? This study focuses on this gap but in particular reference to straight line method (SLM) of depreciation that is commonly being adopted in the preparation and presentation of financial statements in Nigeria. The objective is therefore to ascertain the extent to which the SLM of depreciation can influence financial information quality of service companies in Nigeria. Primary data were collected through questionnaire. The retrieved questionnaires were analysed using logistic regression. The study finds that straight line method of depreciation influences financial information quality of service companies in Nigeria. The study recommends that despite the general use of straight line method of depreciation, other methods of depreciation should be encouraged for adoption in order to provide an opportunity for comparing depreciation results. The objective is to improve knowledge of depreciation methodology for better option.

The Recovery of US Commercial Banking: An Analysis of Revenues, Profits, Dividends, Capital and Value Creation

This paper reviews the financial performance, risk, changing revenue and asset mix and prospects for future shareholder value creation of the 20 largest commercial banks in the US from 2003-2012. Fifteen of the 20 banks in the sample reported record revenues in 2012, with 12 of these banks also earning record profits. Revenue from interest income declined each year 2010-2012, resulting in banks generating more revenue from trading activities and fees. Aggregate dividends are still equal to their level 10 years ago, despite record profits and a mean effective tax rate of 25.2%, which is 4% lower than its pre-crisis average. Banks reduced their allowance and provision for loan losses each year 2010-2012, but 7.6% of all loans remain nonperforming, restructured or impaired. Net interest margin remained stable between 3.4%-3.7% from 2009-2012, while average profit margins have increased back to their pre-crisis levels. Banks hold an average capital/assets ratio of 11.4%, well in excess of the 10.0% regulatory minimum. Bank stock returns have lagged behind the S&P 500 since the market lows of March 2009. Average bank market betas shifted to a significantly higher range post-crisis, but have gradually declined to a mean value of 1.2. Aggregate MVA for commercial banks has been negative for 5 consecutive years, and aggregate EVA was negative from 2009-2011 before posting a strong turnaround in 2012, as banks' mean return on capital finally exceeded their cost of capital. Bank stocks were undervalued at the end of 2012 based on their P/B, PEG and P/E ratios, as well as value creation metrics such as future growth reliance and EVA momentum.

Hypothetical Bias in Choice Experiments: Is Cheap Talk Effective at Eliminating Bias on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Choice?

Abstract We use an experimental approach to evaluate the effectiveness of the most commonly employed bias-mitigation tool in nonmarket valuation surveys: the cheap talk script. Our experimental design allows us to estimate treatment effects on two margins of choice separately: the decision to enter the market at all (the extensive margin) and the choices among alternatives offered (the intensive margin). The key result of this study is to show that a cheap talk script appears to affect both margins in ways distinctly different than when choices involve actual payments. Specifically, participants in hypothetical choice experiments including cheap talk are more inclined to enter the market but are also more price-sensitive as compared to when payments are real. Interestingly, the average influence of cheap talk on market participation and price-sensitiveness could result in total willingness to pay (WTP) estimates that are similar to real payment treatments since the two effects identified act in opposite directions when computing WTP. However, they may do so by inducing behavior that is distinctly different than those of consumers facing real choices. Our results highlight that future reliance on cheap talk as a bias mitigation tool requires extensive testing for empirical regularities to gain any confidence that the tool can be effective, and under what circumstances.

West Virginia's Alternative and Renewable Energy Portfolio Act: The "Mountain State's" Latest Attempt to Quit its Addiction to Coal

This note's purpose is to objectively analyze West Virginia's recently enacted Alternative and Renewable Energy Portfolio Act ("AREPA") to determine whether it is the most ambitious alternative and renewable energy legislation that West Virginia can enact given its current political climate. Although coal may currently provide substantial economic benefits to West Virginia, future reliance on coal resources will be detrimental to the state's overall welfare due to dwindling coal reserves and coal's hazardous effects on the environment and public health. Because of coal's negative public health and environmental effects, coalmining states face tremendous federal, state, and local pressures to implement cleaner energy production methods. In 2009, West Virginia enacted AREPA to quell some of these mounting concerns. The legislation, however, has an unusually permissive definition of "alternative" energy sources and technologies and has no minimum requirement for renewable energy. In order to truly diversify from coal, the West Virginia Legislature should amend its "renewable energy resources" standard to require that at least twenty percent of its energy portfolio come from actual renewable energy sources by 2025. The legislature must also amend AREPA to exclude many of the most heavily polluting "alternative" energy sources instead of ensuring their continued existence and harm to the state. Because of West Virginia's dwindling coal reserves, the state's wealth of renewable energy resources, and a growing anti-coal movement, the Mountain State should diversify fromcoal-based energy resources and establish an appropriate alternative energy portfolio standard that is more heavily geared towards truly promoting renewable energy.

Legal Transplant Chronicles: The Evolution of Unreasonableness and Proportionality Review of the Administration in the United Kingdom

The study of legal transplants seems to have reached its saturation point. Its richness has both contributed to conceptual confusion and obscured persistent assumptions about the nature of the migration of laws that are no longer valid in today’s “flat” world. This Article aims to map the different definitions of and approaches to this concept by offering a graphic presentation of a series of typologies and distinctions that serve to encapsulate the various aspects of the debate. It then focuses on aspects that have received insufficient attention, and advances a renewed model of the transplant process that draws on today’s complex reality rather than on the classical assumptions that served as a basis for early debate. Simple accounts of transplants as single events, through which an importer system adopts the laws of an exporter system, should be replaced by long-term accounts of series of interacting transplant events generated by a multitude of players. The model is applied in a case study that chronicles the evolution of the two British grounds of substantive review of the administration, unreasonableness, and proportionality. Both have evolved through complex processes that involve innovation, vacillating degrees of loyalty to European doctrine and reliance on Commonwealth sources of influence. The application of the model not only provides a real-life example of the evolution of law in practice, it also offers readers a glimpse of the development of British public law and the impact of foreign law. Here, I proffer a novel emphasis on the impact of Commonwealth law. The literature in this context usually focuses on two actors: European law is considered, at least impliedly, as the central source of influence. Yet British courts first obliquely rejected European pressure by reverting to tests seemingly developed in Commonwealth countries (which, in fact, largely resemble German jurisprudence, once again without disclosing this influence). Ending with an assessment of the current state of affairs and possible future reliance on other sources of influence (the United States included), I show that no transplant is an island, and that complex modes of interaction color the process.

Renewable Energy

The Energy Committee of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has in a series of projects gathered information and knowledge on renewable energy from various sources, both within and outside the academic world. In this article, we synthesize and summarize some of the main points on renewable energy from the various Energy Committee projects and the Committee's Energy 2050 symposium, regarding energy from water and wind, bioenergy, and solar energy. We further summarize the Energy Committee's scenario estimates of future renewable energy contributions to the global energy system, and other presentations given at the Energy 2050 symposium. In general, international coordination and investment in energy research and development is crucial to enable future reliance on renewable energy sources with minimal fossil fuel use.