Future Projects Research Articles

Integrating AI into DevOps pipelines: Continuous integration, continuous delivery, and automation in infrastructural management: Projections for future

This paper explores the transformative role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in enhancing DevOps pipelines, focusing on Continuous Integration (CI), Continuous Delivery (CD), and automation in infrastructural management. As organizations increasingly adopt DevOps methodologies to streamline software development and delivery processes, the integration of AI technologies offers significant potential for improving efficiency, quality, and responsiveness. This study reviews current practices in CI/CD and examines how AI-driven tools can automate repetitive tasks, optimize resource allocation, and facilitate predictive analytics for proactive decision-making. Additionally, the paper discusses the challenges and considerations associated with AI integration in DevOps, including cultural shifts, data governance, and the need for skilled personnel. Projections for future developments highlight the potential for AI to create smarter, more adaptive DevOps environments that align with evolving industry demands. By identifying key trends and innovations, this research provides a comprehensive overview of the future landscape of DevOps, positioning AI as a critical enabler of agility and performance.

Sharia as a New Culture System of Identity in the Post-Conlict Aceh, Indonesia

The research on Aceh in various fields has been conducted by many scholars so far. What is felt less of concern in academic studies is on current period of post-conflict Aceh after peace process between Free Aceh Movement and Indonesian Army since 2005. This article would like to discuss about contemporary situation, especially in the post-conflict Aceh, on what has been shifted dealing with socio-cultural in Acehnese society. However, it has been a big change and shifting within society in Aceh, particularly after sharia religious law stipulated as the main legal formal that is objected as social engineering. Why sharia is important to be studied here could be not separated from Aceh’s long history and its deep role of Islamization process to South East Asia. Beside it is used as an identity, sharia currently in Aceh has also chosen as the new culture system and as the way out of prolonged armed conflict in Aceh that has taken place for more than three decades (1976-2005). By using theory religion as a culture system, this article would like to discuss and analyze about how does sharia now in Aceh become a new culture system of identity that broadly changed Aceh and its society, not only in socio-cultural, but also any other dimensions of life in contemporary time. The findings show that sharia religious law which has been institutionalized and stipulated as the main legal formal is more being objected as social engineering projects for future oriented social transformation and being a new culture system of identity.

El futuro en común.Las comunidades indígenas en las ciudades del bajo río Negro, Norpatagonia argentina

This article discusses the Indigenous communities that began emerging in the 1980s in the cities of Viedma and Carmen de Patagones, in Argentina’s North Patagonia. They have their own name and identify using the categories Mapuche and Mapuche-Tehuelche. These urban communities suffer double prejudice. On the one hand, their status as legitimately Indigenous is questioned under the argument that “true” natives inhabit the countryside and have traditional ways of living. Yet they are also seen with suspicion in the Indigenous world, because they have no territory of their own and do not share a common past. Drawing on an ethnographic approach, the article concludes that these urban Indigenous communities are better understood as shared projects for a common future. In other words, the active intention to form communities helps overcome uncertainty and the vicissitudes specific to concrete community configurations.

Pemanfaatan Sumber Daya Alam Pasir Laut sebagai Komoditas Tambang Masyarakat di Perairan Kabupaten Karimun, Kepulauan Riau

Potential mining commodities in Karimun Regency, Riau Islands Province, include: tin, granite, land sand and sea sand. Areas in Karimun Regency that have the potential for sea sand are Babi Island Waters, Meral District, Karimun Regency and Tulang Village Waters, Selat Gelam District, Karimun Regency. This study was carried out to measure the optimal level of utilization of natural sea sand resources that can guarantee its sustainability. This is done by measuring the level of availability of sea sand; and measuring available sea sand reserves, the level of utilization that does not erode reserves, as well as estimated supply projections for future needs. The method used is the observation method, by collecting field data. Data were analyzed descriptively, with bathymetry measurements, spatial analysis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and literature study. The resources of the Community Mining Area with sea sand as a commodity in area A of Babi Island waters are 1,174,626.58 m3 and the resources of the Community Mining Area in area B of Gelam Strait waters are 502,088.58 m3

Emerging trends: Dialogues between environmental sustainability in the management of social innovation projects for a sustainable future

Emerging trends: Dialogues between environmental sustainability in the management of social innovation projects for a sustainable future

Equivalence, modality use and patient satisfaction of telepractice administration of the scenario test in persons with primary progressive aphasia

BACKGROUND: The use of telediagnostics for people with primary progressive aphasia (PPA) could improve access to specialised care. There is a gap in research, especially regarding to the evaluation of communicative-pragmatic measurement tools in a digital setting. OBJECTIVE: This study examined the equivalence, modality use, and patient satisfaction of telepractice administration of the Scenario Test (ST) in people with PPA. METHODS: In a cross-over design, the ST was conducted once by videoconferencing and once in person. Fifteen people with PPA participated. Participant satisfaction was assessed after each test session using a short self-designed questionnaire. The total ST scores, the use of the different communicative modalities and the participant satisfaction scores were evaluated using the equivalence and McNemar test. RESULTS: Statistical equivalence was established for the present sample with regard to the total score of the ST. Regarding the use of the different modalities, no significant difference was found. Sample satisfaction was positive for both diagnostic settings, but there was no statistical equivalence of satisfaction. Severe psychiatric and cognitive symptoms affected the test performance. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights opportunities and limitations of telepractice administration of the ST in people with PPA. There is some evidence that testing with the ST via videoconferencing is feasible. Differences in the use of communication modalities and participant satisfaction should be further investigated. Influencing factors such as psychiatric symptoms and cognitive deficits should be considered in future research projects.

SinoAsian Futures between Economic Forecasting, Science Fiction, Sinofuturism and Creativity

For many years futurology and forecasting have been a growing field and it seems that this trend is continuing. This article will therefore discuss forecasting, but will claim that it is in need of an important corrective: a kind of self-reflective Science Fiction (hereafter: SF) and the specific critical creativity associated with it. This approach is especially yielding when looking at the case of China. If for the longest time, Science Fiction has been thought of as a western genre, the following suggests that with new movements such as Asian Futurism, Sinofuturism, Afrofuturism or Gulf Futurism, one can observe a new multilateralism taking hold when it comes to the projection and description of possible futures. The Sinofuturism movement will here function as a case study, as it is well suited to point to the innovative power of non-traditional SF. Already one of its forerunners, 1980s Cyberpunk introduced a changing power differential between the east (Japan at the time) and the west, retiring older orientalist and colonial dreams of dominating Asia. This article suggests that this changing power differential can be updated and re-read via the rise of Sinofuturism, its visions and its politics and that it has already become an important socio-political phenomenon to study with which to study cultural Asian-western interactions for times to come.

Assessing CMIP6 models in simulating meteo-oceanographic variability on Spanish continental coasts

The ocean is a key player in the Earth's climate, absorbing heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The ocean's temperature and salinity are influenced by climate change, which can significantly impact marine ecosystems. Reliable data sets of atmospheric and oceanographic parameters are of special interest in coastal productive areas to adequately monitor their variability at regional and local levels. It is therefore essential to continue monitoring and studying the ocean to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. In this context, the main aim of this study is to identify the Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) that best capture the variability of water temperature, salinity, and wind speed along the continental Spanish coasts, using them to estimate future impacts in these regions. To achieve this, a multifaceted approach is used, encompassing a historical (2000−2014) assessment comparing ESM outputs to in situ observations from Puertos del Estado (PdE) oceanographic buoys, an examination of the present period (2015−2022) under three IPCC scenarios (SSP1−2.6, SSP2−4.5, and SSP5−8.5), and a projection of future (2023−2100) trends using the same emission scenarios. Results showed that the ESMs from CMIP6 can reproduce the historical patterns of meteo-oceanographic properties, rendering them valuable tools for climate change studies. In the future (2100), considering the most pessimistic scenario (SSP5−8.5), the water temperature may increase by 2.8°C, salinity may decrease by -1.6, and wind speed may decrease by -0.4 m·s−1. These projected changes can significantly impact the Spanish coasts, jeopardizing the growth, reproduction, survival, abundance, and distribution of some marine species.

Comparative assessment of dry- and humid-heat extremes in a warming climate: Frequency, intensity, and seasonal timing

Dry and humid-heat extremes are two types of heat extremes, each exhibiting unique climatological characteristics and impacts on different sectors of society. Using historical simulations and projections produced under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) by models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comparative assessment of the future changes in dry- and humid-heat extremes over global land. Relative to 1995–2014, projections for the mid-term future (2041–2060) and long-term future (2081–2100) periods suggest that most global regions will experience an increase in frequency and intensity of both dry- and humid-heat extremes, especially the tropical regions. In these future periods, the peak occurrences of dry- and humid-heat extremes in mid-to high-latitude regions often occur within the same month. However, there will be a one-to two-month gap between the peak occurrences of dry- and humid-heat extremes in tropical regions, primarily due to monsoonal circulations that introduce variability by causing dry-heat extremes before the onset of monsoons and humid-heat extremes as the monsoons commence. This suggests the need for sector-specific adaptation strategies during different periods of the year for tropical regions. Under both future scenarios, whether considering individual exposure or land area, the average level of exposure to extreme humid-heat days is projected to increase more significantly compared to dry-heat days. The above results highlight the risks associated with the intensification of humid heat in future climate scenarios and warrant the development of effective strategies to mitigate the adverse effects.

A Detailed Examination of Türkiye's Projected Precipitation and Growth Season Trends under Climate Change Condition

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of Türkiye's changing precipitation patterns and growing season dynamics in the context of global warming, utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In light of global warming, this study provides a thorough analysis of Türkiye's evolving precipitation patterns and growing season dynamics using multiple RCP scenarios and CMIP5. The research aims to fill a crucial gap in climate research by combining historical data and future projections to assess Türkiye's precipitation path under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The study employs linear regression for trend analysis and uses data from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), with a focus on precipitation data from 1986 to 2100. According to various RCP scenarios, this study’s findings show a considerable variation in precipitation trends over the 21st century. The RCP 8.5 scenario predicts a significant decrease in precipitation, which would present difficulties for the management of water resources and agricultural productivity. In contrast, the least severe RCP 2.6 pathway shows a fairly stable pattern of precipitation. Complex seasonal hydrological responses to climate change are revealed by monthly precipitation analysis; RCP8.5 predicts an increase in the frequency of periods of drought and heavy precipitation events. The impact of these changes in precipitation on Türkiye's agricultural growing seasons was further investigated in this study. In high-emission scenarios, there was an initial tendency towards longer growing seasons, which were subsequently followed by shorter ones. This suggests that although global warming might initially result in an extended growing season, it might ultimately cause a reduction in it, particularly in situations where mitigation efforts are minimal. The need for adaptable strategies that can respond to long-term climate trends as well as seasonal variability was highlighted by this research. It draws attention to the fact that to mitigate the effects of climate variability, informed policy decisions and integrated resource management are essential. The results highlight the need for quick action to lower the risks associated with water and highlight the potential advantages of intensive mitigation efforts in stabilizing and extending growing seasons.

Survey Analysis of Potential Nuclear Safety Research of Thailand for International Research Collaborative Reinforcement in the 2020s

Abstract To achieve the long-term challenge of nuclear energy public acceptance in Thailand, nuclear safety research needed to be properly determined in both domestic and international directions, especially in the 2020s which was a period passing the Fukushima disaster over 10 years. Thailand Institute of Nuclear Technology (TINT) has studied nuclear safety research after the Fukushima accident to answer technical and social issues of nuclear power. An update of nuclear safety research from domestic experts and international surveys was needed in order to identify potential collaborative research to serve the goal of public acceptance reinforcement. The objective of this study was to survey, assess and rank the importance and knowledge level of nuclear safety research in Thailand among domestic experts in various fields. The survey was extended to collect the opinion of international participants of the ASEAN Network on Nuclear Power Safety Research (ASEAN NPSR) to analyze the similarity of the nuclear research interest for reinforcing the future collaborative project. As a result, the importance and knowledge level showed diverse important research topics with the priority of research scopes on human factor novel reactor technologies, and risk assessment. According to the ASEAN NPSR survey, the nuclear safety research of severe accidents, risk assessment, and novel reactor technologies were listed as potential collaborative projects. Also, the domestic and ASEAN NPSR survey results helped support the new collaborative research extension session in the annual ASEAN NPSR meeting to together discuss the potential nuclear safety research between members for the 2020s.

In search of a global community: a multivocal critique of UNESCO’s education commons discourse

ABSTRACT This article critically examines UNESCO’s construction of a commons approach to global education through a multivocal analysis of its 2021 report Reimagining our futures together: a new social contract for education. The participating researchers’ “voices” are brought together through dialogue and joint meaning making to critically analyse UNESCO’s promotion of education as a global commons. This is achieved by unpacking how the “we” that this commons implies is constructed by the text. A multivocal approach is particularly well suited to this task because it can encompass multiple perspectives, identities and social roles, thereby enriching the analysis and discussion. The joint analysis uncovers three “commons-constructing” devices i) a reliance on anticipatory politics and projection of a common apocalyptic future; ii) a discursive balance between cultural diversity and universal values, and iii) a downplaying of power relations. Taken together, these strategies work to construct the commons by fostering a particular subjectivity around a “we”, an undefined community, which readers of the report are expected to relate to. We question to what extent this community of global readers exists and consider its implications for a global commons approach to education.

Robust Polar Amplification in Ice-Free Climates Relies on Ocean Heat Transport and Cloud Radiative Effects

Abstract A fundamental divide exists between previous studies that conclude that polar amplification does not occur without sea ice and studies that find that polar amplification is an inherent feature of the atmosphere independent of sea ice. We hypothesize that a representation of climatological ocean heat transport is key for simulating polar amplification in ice-free climates. To investigate this, we run a suite of targeted experiments in the slab ocean aquaplanet configuration of CESM2-CAM6 with different profiles of prescribed ocean heat transport, which are invariant under CO2 quadrupling. In simulations without climatological ocean heat transport, polar amplification does not occur. In contrast, in simulations with climatological ocean heat transport, robust polar amplification occurs in all seasons. What is causing this dependence of polar amplification on ocean heat transport? Energy-balance model theory is incapable of explaining our results and in fact would predict that introducing ocean heat transport leads to less polar amplification. We instead demonstrate that shortwave cloud radiative feedbacks can explain the divergent polar climate responses simulated by CESM2-CAM6. Targeted cloud locking experiments in the zero ocean heat transport simulations are able to reproduce the polar amplification of the climatological ocean heat transport simulations, solely by prescribing high-latitude cloud radiative feedbacks. We conclude that polar amplification in ice-free climates is underpinned by ocean–atmosphere coupling, through a less negative high latitude shortwave cloud radiative feedback that facilitates enhanced polar warming. In addition to reconciling previous disparities, these results have important implications for interpreting past equable climates and climate projections under high-emissions scenarios. Significance Statement Polar amplification is a robust feature of climate change in the modern-day climate. However, previous climate modeling studies fundamentally do not agree on whether polar amplification occurs in ice-free climates. In this study, we find in a state-of-the-art climate model that, if ocean heat transport is neglected, the response to an increase in CO2 is not polar amplified, whereas robust polar amplification occurs if ocean heat transport is included. Using targeted model experiments, we diagnose cloud radiative effects as the driver of this divergent behavior. We conclude that polar amplification is a robust feature of the atmosphere–ocean system. Our results have important implications for interpreting past warm climates and future projections under high-emissions scenarios.

Comparative Analysis of Water Sustainability Indices: A Systematic Review

The achievement of water sustainability necessitates the development and application of comprehensive assessment tools to monitor and evaluate the impact of water resource management. This article presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of various water sustainability indices, emphasizing their underlying principles, methodologies, and potential applications. Our study reveals the diverse landscape of existing indices, illustrating that even indices with similar names can vary significantly in scope and methodology. Via a systematic review of 124 publications, this study provides insights into existing composite indices related to water sustainability, highlighting their specific applications and potential contributions to water resource management and sustainability. The information gathered from the selected papers was synthesized and analyzed thematically to identify common patterns through keyword co-occurrence mapping, SDG mapping, standard review protocols, and cluster analyses. Through a cluster analysis, we identified six distinct clusters of indices, highlighting the need for careful consideration in selecting appropriate ones. Moreover, our analysis of co-occurring keywords underscores the close relationship between sustainable development, water resources, water supply, and water conservation within the context of water-related indices. Notably, these indices address not only sustainable development goal six but also a number of other interconnected goals. It was also found that “sustainability index” is a common name for different nature water indices. This review also identifies research gaps in the existing literature. However, significant limitations exist, including a lack of historical application and future projections for many current water sustainability indicators. Without the ability to track changes over time and project the future, identifying areas of improvement and measuring progress toward long-term water sustainability goals becomes challenging. Furthermore, many indices are complex and designed for watershed or regional levels, limiting their adaptability to different contexts. Despite these challenges, indices remain valuable tools for assessing and managing water resources sustainably, addressing various dimensions of sustainability, and supporting decision-making processes across different sectors and contexts.

Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land

Extreme climate events are hotspots in global change. However, research on the changes in future compound events and population exposure is still limited. Leveraging from the data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of global compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in the future. We also predict the risk of population exposure and quantify the contribution of different factors to exposure. The results show that: (1) In the next 80 years, compound hot-dry event (CHDE) will increase at a rate of 0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 days per decade under the three scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively. By comparison, compound hot-humidity event (CHHE) shows a downward trend under the three scenarios, with a downward rate of 0.01, 0.02, and 0.11 days per decade, respectively. (2) Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, CHDE and CHHE have two or more mutation points. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, CHDE shows a significant upward and CHHE shows a significant downward trend in the middle and late 21st century. These two indices exhibit periodic changes in all three scenarios (3) South Asia, West Asia, and Northeast Africa have higher CHDE values, while regions with higher CHHE values are located in North Asia and Greenland. (4) Climate change is a major factor affecting population exposure. For CHDE, climate, population, and their synergistic effects contribute about 75%, 20%, and 5% to the exposure, respectively. For CHHE, the contributions of these three factors are 85%, 10%, and 5% respectively. These findings provide scientific guidance for the rational formulation of population policies, the effective avoidance of climate disaster risks and the protection of human health.

Heat waves and urban vulnerability: climate shelters, public services and innovative solutions. Lessons from Barcelona

ABSTRACT Future projections indicate a global increase in heat waves, especially in urban areas due to climate change and the heat island effect, leading to adverse human, economic, and environmental outcomes. Cities worldwide respond by integrating climate mitigation and adaptation measures. While long-term strategies dominate research, this paper explores the increasing interest in short-term solutions, examining the Barcelona Climate Shelter Network. Investigating climate shelter initiatives, it highlights the use of public or private spaces for respite during extreme heat. This model offers insights for other European cities facing escalating heat waves, encouraging reflections on reshaping public services amidst climate crises.

Abstract 1304: Employing widening funds to address inequity in cancer research - example of the STEPUPIORS collaborative rectal cancer project

Abstract Introduction: Treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) using neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) improves local control and survival, but response varies. Patients treated at the Institute for Oncology and Radiology of Serbia (IORS) who undergo surgery upon complete response might be exposed to risks and poor quality of life. A consortium dedicated to redefining prognostic and predictive biomarkers in rectal cancer was formed within the framework of the STEPUPIORS Horizon Europe project. The current study evaluated whether employing collaborative widening funds might lead to sustainable strategies for cancer treatment, lowering inequity and steering societal impact, especially in countries with limited resources, using a pilot rectal cancer project. Patients and Methods: The analysis was performed in the period Oct 01, 2022, to Oct 01, 2023, with a Serbian coordinating institution and partners from Spain, Greece, and the Netherlands as expert twinning centers. RT was administered to 75 patients with LARC using volumetric modulated arc therapy-simultaneous integrated boost approach/concomitant chemotherapy (5FU/Leucovorin, week 1&5) for the first time in Serbia. A comprehensive approach towards building human capacities on biobanking, multiomics analyses and project management was developed through intensive training and expert visits. Consensus consortium decisions were reached on regular partner meetings. Results: Patients with clinical complete response (16.0%) and initially distant-located tumors were enrolled in the watch and wait approach and are under follow up. Developed pipelines for multiomics analyses led to 4 high-quality papers on new predictive biomarkers to nCRT in LARC and the deposition of omics data in open-science repositories following FAIR data principles. A first Serbian cancer biobank was successfully installed. Fifteen IORS researchers (87% female), were certified in biobanking. A grant management office was established to provide and support the sustainability of future research projects. This led to 5 new grant applications and enrollment of 1 female project member in a Masters program for Management in the Health Care System. Conclusion: This study showed that even within the first 12 months, implementation of a 3-year collaborative grant dedicated to a specific research problem, might significantly change educational and treatment strategies enabling better patient care (OCEBM level of evidence 3). The results highlight that disparities in cancer outcomes and health equity might only be addressed by progressing beyond descriptions of said outcomes and taking specific action. Systematic, long-term strategic initiatives and collaborations among relevant stakeholders and ethical, legal and societal structures are needed in more countries. Acknowledgements: Horizon Europe Project STEPUPIORS (101079217). Citation Format: Milena Cavic, Ana Djuric, Mladen Marinkovic, Aleksandra Stanojevic, Miljana Tanic, Snezana Bjelogrlic, Jelena Spasic, Ana Damjanovic, Marija Djordjic Crnogorac, Ana Vuletic, Katarina Mirjacic Martinovic, Marko Radulovic, Suzana Stojanovic-Rundic, Ana Krivokuca, Radmila Jankovic, Sergi Castellvi-Bel, Jerome Zoidakis, Remond J. Fijneman. Employing widening funds to address inequity in cancer research - example of the STEPUPIORS collaborative rectal cancer project [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 1304.

Case Study of Emerging Groundwater Management Issues at the Forefront of Large-scale Production from a Confined Aquifer: The Vista Ridge Project

Continued population growth, increased demands for water and declining water availability are statewide water concerns in Texas. The development and movement of water from where it is to where it is needed brings with it benefits to the receiving area and concerns for the area of origin. The Vista Ridge project serves as an on-point example and case study of such concerns and processes that can mitigate, in part, negative impacts that are informative to other Texans who will soon be facing similar pressures.. Impacts on the water levels in existing wells made the Vista Ridge Project a focus of significant public discussion in 2022, including Texas House and Senate interim session hearings. This paper spotlights groundwater management issues prominent in the Vista Ridge Project that will likely be of concern with other Texas groundwater projects in the near future. These issues involve well mitigation, significant impacts from groundwater production across groundwater conservation district boundaries, meaningful consideration of nine factors in Texas Water Code §36.108(d), the balance between limiting groundwater production, development of fair share doctrines, the role of the Texas Water Development Board in the

An Intercomparison of Snow Mass Budget over Arctic Sea Ice Simulated by CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Arctic has experienced rapid changes in recent decades. For the first time, we intercompare five snow mass budget processes over Arctic sea ice simulated by 22 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) using new diagnostics that have not been available for previous CMIPs. Our analysis suggests that snowfall accumulation (melt) is the dominant process contributing to nearly 100% (70.4% ± 10.1%) of the annual snow growth (loss). Snow mass change through sea ice dynamics, snow–ice conversion, and sublimation contribute 10.9% ± 4.9%, 9.7% ± 5.9%, and 9.0% ± 7.7% to the total snow mass loss. The seasonal cycle of various snow processes simulated by most of the CMIP6 models generally follows similar variations. There is reduced snowfall accumulation, melt, and sea ice dynamics during 1993–2014. However, substantial temporal and spatial discrepancies are noteworthy between the CMIP6 models. There is a large spread of snowfall accumulation and snowmelt in summer and fall, snow–ice conversion from autumn to spring, sublimation in late spring and summer, and snow mass change due to sea ice dynamics from winter to midspring. About half the models show decreasing trends of snowfall accumulation during 1993–2014, with no trends in others. Divergent trends in snow–ice conversion and sublimation occur in the Greenland and Barents Seas. The discrepancies are attributed equally to internal variability and model structural differences. Future projections that remove the identified outlier models suggest a significant reduction in snowfall accumulation, snowmelt, and snow mass change due to sea ice dynamics in the Arctic Ocean from 2015 to 2099. Snow–ice conversion and sublimation are also projected to be reduced but with less confidence.

Historical trends and future projections of annual rainfall from CMIP6 models in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Climate risks have posed a major threat to many local communities living in low-lying coastal megacities across the globe, including Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Hence, this study first aimed to contribute towards a comprehensive understanding of temporal trend patterns of annual rainfall and absolute extremes in Ho Chi Minh City over the last 4 decades (1980-2022) through multiple non-parametric statistical trend tests. We employed the quantile delta mapping (QDM) method to develop daily bias-corrected rainfall data based on the outputs in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under 8 shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Evaluation of model performance was implemented by repeatedly omitting 5 successive years in turn for estimating testing errors. The outcomes indicate the high applicability of well-calibrated transfer functions, even for high quantiles, to the production of future rainfall scenarios. The projected changes in annual rainfall and absolute extremes were obtained by estimating multi-model medians from CMIP6 models for future periods (i.e. 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100), with reference to the base period (1995-2014). In general, annual rainfall in Ho Chi Minh City is projected to increase substantially, and Thu Duc station consistently shows the highest increases in annual rainfall. Projected changes are approximately 30.9% (8.3 to 77.8%) under the high-end scenario (i.e. SSP5-8.5) by the end of the 21st century. It is expected that these findings will yield several solid arguments for mitigating climate-related risks in Ho Chi Minh City.