Future Path Of Monetary Policy Research Articles

Turnover in EU Monetary Policy in a Crisis

Abstract The role of monetary policy has become increasingly important in recent years, as a range of economic challenges have emerged, affecting both developing and economically advanced countries. The aim of this article is to examine the shift in the monetary policy of the EU, which has been expressed through changes in the tools used by the European Central Bank (ECB), and to consider the causes and economic implications of this shift. The descriptive analytical method was used to achieve this goal. The study identified that the aim of the ECB’s interest rate increases was primarily to slow down core inflation rates. The ECB has raised the refinancing rate from 0.5% to 2.5% in 2022 and halted asset purchase programs, such as the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, which had previously stimulated liquidity growth. Despite these changes, forward guidance has been maintained as a useful tool for providing clarity and certainty to financial markets and the public about the future path of monetary policy. It is concluded in the study that the impact of the shift towards contractionary monetary policy is likely to be felt across a range of economic sectors, with higher borrowing costs potentially leading to reduced investment and lower levels of economic growth.

ECB language and stock returns – A textual analysis of ECB press conferences

This paper examines the language used by central bank officials in public press conferences and how it influences stock returns in the euro area. By proposing a sentiment mining approach that accounts for grammatical and syntactical cues, a distinction is drawn between (i) the general tone, (ii) uncertainty, and (iii) constraint expressed by ECB officials. The results show that as constraining language is often used to express policy commitment, press conferences with higher fractions of constraining language are associated with positive intraday stock price movements in times of unconventional monetary policy. In addition, we conclude that in times of crises, intraday returns are more sensitive towards the general tone of ECB officials as market participants may find it harder to grasp the future path of monetary policy. In further analyses, a distinction is made between sections within the press conferences that specifically address either the monetary analysis or the economic outlook. The results indicate that market participants interpret uncertain language in the economic outlook as a signal of expansive monetary policy decisions going forward as indicated by positive intraday stock returns. Finally, by proposing a novel rule-based approach to identify forward-looking statements of ECB press conferences, first evidence is provided in this paper that forward-looking answers given by ECB officials in the Q&A Sessions significantly affect euro area stock returns.

Effects of Monetary Policy Communication in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Malaysia

By conducting a high-frequency event study similar to Gurkaynak et al. (2005), we find that two factors are needed to adequately capture the effects of monetary policy announcements for a non-inflation targeting emerging market economy, Malaysia. These factors are the surprise changes in the policy rate (Overnight Policy Rate, OPR) and the information about the future path of monetary policy. We find that the path factor has a strong influence on long-term government bond yields, corporate bond yields and spreads. Our findings are indicative of the view that monetary policy communication is mostly about revealing information pertaining to the central bank’s assessment of the economic outlook, as opposed to an unconditional binding commitment to follow a specific policy path.

ECB Language and Stock Returns – A Textual Analysis of ECB Press Conferences

We examine how the language used by central bank officials in public press conferences influences stock returns in the euro area. In line with the concept of Odyssean Forward Guidance, we find that using constraining language to express policy commitment increases the effectiveness of Forward Guidance in times of unconventional monetary policy. In further analysis, we provide strong evidence that market participants interpret higher levels of uncertain language in the economic outlook as a sign of Delphic Forward Guidance, indicated by positive intraday stock returns. In addition, we find that in a period of high economic uncertainty, tone sensitivities of financial market participants increase as they find it hard to grasp the future path of monetary policy. Finally, by proposing a novel rule-based approach to identify forward-looking statements of ECB press conferences, we provide first evidence that forward-looking statements in the answers given by ECB officials in the Q&A Sessions significantly affect Euro area stock returns.

Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds. Longer-horizon short rate disagreement co-moves with term premiums. We estimate an affine term structure model in which investors hold heterogeneous beliefs about the long-run level of rates. Our model fits U.S. Treasury yields and the short rate paths predicted by different groups of professional forecasters very well. About one-third of the variation in term premiums is driven by short rate disagreement.

Network Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Global Value Chains

The paper investigates whether production networks are an important channel for the propagation of monetary policy shocks to the stock market in the Euro-area. To do so, it exploits a new comprehensive dataset on a time-series of input-output connections between European country-industries matched with sector-level stock market data. This dataset allows me to distinguish the distribution of the output of industries over 473 user categories (418 intermediate industries and 55 final customers) across 11 Eurozone countries. Monetary policy shocks are identified along two dimensions: one related to the current level of short-term rates (target) and a second related to expectations about the future path of monetary policy (path). First, using an event-study approach around ECB Monetary Policy Announcement dates and novel tools from spatial econometrics, this is the first paper to show that between 40% and 50% of the overall European stock market reaction is due to higher-order network effects. Second, the paper investigates the link between the network structure and the transmission of monetary policy. Industries located in the periphery of the production network react the most to policy shocks, whereas central industries are most influential and serve as an amplification mechanism for the propagation of shocks. Finally, the paper considers the effect of network connections outside of the Euro-area and finds that the response to monetary policy shocks is considerably mitigated for industries located centrally in the global production network.

Central Bank Communication in the XXI Century: A Survey of Theory and Evidence

After the recent global financial crisis, central banks in advanced and developing economies found themselves unable to stick to their mandate goal of price stability by resorting to traditional instruments of monetary policy. When key interest rates approached the zero bound, the need to develop a new toolkit of liquidity provision arose. Central banks embarked on numerous non-standard monetary policy measures aimed at ensuring financial stability and restoring economic growth. Communication has become an effective auxiliary instrument of economic policy, and markets started paying precise attention to the way central bankers report information regarding the future path of monetary policy. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of recent trends and developments in central bank communication strategies. By resorting to the existing literature, we analyze the origins of central bank communication and the evolution of its role in time. We also study the main instruments of communication strategies of large central banks. In the final part of the study, we investigate the communication strategy of the US Federal Reserve and the way it may cause spillovers to fragile markets abroad. We outline at least three major channels of international policy transmission: through stocks, bonds and exchange rates fluctuations.

Impact of FOMC announcement on stock price index in Southeast Asian countries

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, which includes information about the targeted Federal fund rate and revision to the future path of monetary policy on Southeast Asian stock market performance.Design/methodology/approachThis paper has used a sample of five national equity market indexes over the period 1997-2013 that covers 132 scheduled FOMC meetings. The authors have developed the model of Wongswan (2009) and Kontonikas et al. (2013) to quantify target surprise and path surprise.FindingsThe results first show that all the stock markets examined do respond to information in FOMC announcements. Second, the target Federal fund rate has more impact on Southeast Asian stocks performance than information about the future path of monetary policy does. Third, different Southeast Asian equity markets respond similarly to targeting the Federal fund rate, while the responses to monetary policy differ from each other. Fourth, the response of each country to the FOMC announcement is not statistically different in the two periods of financial crisis.Research limitations/implicationsSoutheast Asian financial markets are increasingly highly correlated to the US market. The main channel in which FOMC announcement has impact on Southeast Asian stock markets is through US price transmission. This is the case of foreign firms borrowing from the US market. Then, an increase in interest rate, which means that the cost of financing increases, will lower firm equity value.Originality/valueThe understanding of the response of the Southeast Asian stock markets to target surprise and path surprise, and the impact of each surprise in different time periods, would be important to investors and encourage further discussion amongst academics in Southeast Asia, where stock markets have been emerging in recent years.

Monetary Policy and Stock Prices: Does the “Fed Put” Work When It Is Most Needed?

Most studies of the effect of monetary policy on asset prices use the event study methodology with daily data. The resulting estimates suffer from bias due to omitted variables and endogeneity of policy decisions. We provide evidence that this bias becomes so large during the 2007–2008 financial crisis that it reverses the sign of the estimated stock market response to monetary news, leading to an erroneous conclusion that interest rate cuts are bad news for stocks. We also examine the stock market reaction to monetary policy during the zero lower bound period. The results show a significant bias in daily event study estimates of the stock market response to news about the future path of monetary policy. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:1210–1230, 2016

A contribution to the study of the German treasury bills market

We study the yields in the German treasury bills market. We take a detailed look at the yield banks require to buy treasury bills in the primary market, and we also examine the yield households and nonbank firms demand to buy these bills in the secondary market. We use data from real world tenders to show that the bids set by banks are in accordance with the predictions of our theoretical framework. In particular, we show that current monetary policy and the market’s expectations regarding the future path of monetary policy can be used to define an interval in which the bids from banks lie. Our theoretical predictions for the secondary market also match the data.

Euro Area Monetary Policy Shocks: Impact on Financial Asset Prices During the Crisis?

We use high-frequency intraday interest rate data to measure euro area monetary policy shocks on the days of ECB interest rate announcements between 2002 and 2013. In line with Gurkaynak et al. (2005), we look at monetary policy shocks along two time dimensions: one related to the current level of short-term interest rates and a second related to expectations for the future path of these rates. We undertake regression analysis in order to determine the impact of monetary policy shocks on euro-denominated financial asset prices and confirm that shocks related to the future path of monetary policy are an important driver, particularly for longer-term bond yields. We find that this relationship has changed for certain asset classes since the onset of the crisis, notably the sovereign bonds of stressed euro area countries. These findings highlight the changed nature of the monetary policy transmission mechanism for some euro area countries during the sovereign debt crisis.

Imperfect transparency and shifts in the central bank's output gap target

In the New Keynesian framework, the public's expectation about the future path of monetary policy is an important determinant of current economic conditions. This paper examines the impact of unobservable shifts in the central bank's output gap target on inflation and output dynamics. I show that when the degree of persistence of a shock is private information of the central bank, and policy is discretionary in nature, it is optimal for the central bank not to reveal the future expected path of the output gap target. Perfect transparency unambiguously increases inflation and output volatility and thus lowers welfare.

The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock prices accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases

A new high frequency data set is used to estimate the impact of the Fed on the level and volatility of stock prices while accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases and potential asymmetries. Results show that after addressing these issues, the effect of policy shocks on the level and volatility of stock returns is higher than previously reported. GARCH findings indicate that the volatility impact is tent-shaped, spiking during policy announcements and declining before and after the release. The level and conditional volatility of stock returns is found to respond asymmetrically to the type of policy shocks (timing versus future path of monetary policy) and the type of policy action (easing versus tightening).

Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy

Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets’ expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia, these measures require some adjustment. In this paper, we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical. In particular, excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and financial business-cycle indicators such as Treasury yield spreads and corporate bond spreads. Excess returns on eurodollar futures display similar patterns. We document that simply ignoring these risk premia significantly biases forecasts of the future path of monetary policy. We also show that risk premia matter for some futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks used in the literature.

Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy

Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets' expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia, these measures require some adjustment. In this paper, we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical. In particular, excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and financial business-cycle indicators such as Treasury yield spreads and corporate bond spreads. Excess returns on eurodollar futures display similar patterns. We document that simply ignoring these risk premia significantly biases forecasts of the future path of monetary policy. We also show that risk premia matter for some futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks used in the literature.

Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations

A number of recent articles have used different financial market instruments to measure near-term expectations of the federal funds rate and the high-frequency changes in these instruments around Federal Open Market Committee announcements to measure monetary policy shocks. This article evaluates the empirical success of a variety of financial market instruments in predicting the future path of monetary policy. All of the instruments we consider provide forecasts that are clearly superior to those of standard time series models at all of the horizons considered. Among financial market instruments, we find that federal funds futures dominate all the other securities in forecasting monetary policy at horizons out to six months. For longer horizons, the predictive power of many of the instruments we consider is very similar. In addition, we present evidence that monetary policy shocks computed using the current-month federal funds futures contract are influenced by changes in the timing of policy actions that do not influence the expected course of policy beyond a horizon of about six weeks. We propose an alternative shock measure that captures changes in market expectations of policy over slightly longer horizons.

Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy

Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets' expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia, these measures require some adjustment. In this paper, we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical. In particular, excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and financial business-cycle indicators such as Treasury yield spreads and corporate bond spreads. Excess returns on eurodollar futures display similar patterns. We document that simply ignoring these risk premia significantly biases forecasts of the future path of monetary policy. We also show that risk premia matter for some futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks used in the literature.

Market-based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations

A number of recent articles have used different financial market instruments to measure near-term expectations of the federal funds rate and the high-frequency changes in these instruments around Federal Open Market Committee announcements to measure monetary policy shocks. This article evaluates the empirical success of a variety of financial market instruments in predicting the future path of monetary policy. All of the instruments we consider provide forecasts that are clearly superior to those of standard time series models at all of the horizons considered. Among financial market instruments, we find that federal funds futures dominate all the other securities in forecasting monetary policy at horizons out to six months. For longer horizons, the predictive power of many of the instruments we consider is very similar. In addition, we present evidence that monetary policy shocks computed using the current-month federal funds futures contract are influenced by changes in the timing of policy actions tha...

Extracting the Expected Path of Monetary Policy From Futures Rates

AbstractFederal funds and eurodollar futures contracts are among the most useful instruments for deriving expectations of the future path of monetary policy. However, reading policy expectations from those instruments is complicated by the presence of risk premia. This paper demonstrates how to extract the expected policy path under the assumption that risk premia are constant over time, and under a simple model that allows risk premia to vary. In the latter case, the risk premia are identified under the assumption that policy expectations level out after a long enough horizon. The results provide evidence that the risk premia on these futures contracts vary over time. The impact of this variation is fairly limited for futures contracts with short horizons, but it increases as the horizon of the contracts lengthens. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:733–754, 2004

Extracting the Expected Path of Monetary Policy from Futures Rates

Federal funds and eurodollar futures contracts are among the most useful instruments for deriving expectations of the future path of monetary policy. However, reading policy expectations from those instruments is complicated by the presence of risk premia. This paper demonstrates how to extract the expected policy path under the assumption that risk premia are constant over time, and under a simple model that allows risk premia to vary. In the latter case, the risk premia are identified under the assumption that policy expectations level out after a long enough horizon. The results provide evidence that the risk premia on these futures contracts vary over time. The impact of this variation is fairly limited for futures contracts with short horizons, but it increases as the horizon of the contracts lengthens.