Future Of Antarctica Research Articles

From gateway to custodian city: Understanding urban residents’ sense of connectedness to Antarctica

AbstractAntarctic “gateway” cities have been characterised primarily as portals through which goods and services from around the world can be transported to the frozen continent. However, recent research suggests that this concept should be expanded to address other forms of connectivity, including those felt by people living in these cities rather than simply passing through them. In this article, we explore the meaning of urban relations to Antarctica in the 21st century, focusing on the Australian city of Hobart. We outline evolving understandings of gateway cities, and of Antarctic gateways particularly; examine Hobart’s diverse connections to the far south; and analyse current public policy related to the city’s “gateway” status. We then report the results of a survey (n = 300) conducted in 2018 to investigate how citizens understand their city’s relationship with Antarctica. Survey results show that residents prioritised ecological concerns over economic or political issues and felt strongly that the city should play a custodian role in the future of Antarctica. Hobartians’ strong sense of environmental and cultural connectedness with Antarctica suggests a need to rethink the concept of Antarctic gateways if policy is to reflect adequately the meaning of this identity to residents of the cities that circle the southern continent.

Five factors that will decide the future of Antarctica

Five factors that will eventually lead to political–legal changes in the Antarctic Treaty System are analysed. The increase in membership, heterogeneity and asymmetry of the states that are part of it, including the seven claimants, has produced substantial changes in the political equilibrium of this international regime. The pressure to internationalise Antarctic governance puts stress on the relationship between “traditional” and “new” Antarctic countries. It is a scenario where the importance of sovereignty and the influence of the claimant states are greater than is normally assumed in the public discourse. The new uses of, and economic and strategic interests in Antarctica have also had an important effect on the evolution of this international regime. The purpose of this article is to promote prospective studies about all these topics. It is necessary to think about the future of Antarctic governance to ensure that strategic decisions are taken at the appropriate time, so that the objectives of the Antarctic Treaty System can be achieved. The task of thinking about Antarctic futures must be faced with a multidisciplinary vision.

The changing face of the white continent

As ice thickness decreases and international agreements come up for renewal, the future of Antarctica could shift in emphasis from conservation to mineral exploration, while science is in danger of being pushed back to make way for more tourism.

Just transitions and a contested space: Antarctica and the Global South

This paper suggests that Global South states should prioritize Antarctica as a core trans-national issue because of the potential rewards it offers in terms of opportunities for advancing their common political and development agendas. Global South states are significantly underrepresented in Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) governance. Consequently, they have minimal input into the shaping and direction of ATS decision-making on issues such as Antarctic bio-prospecting, fishing and tourism or, critically, into debates about the role and status of Antarctica in the international system. Nevertheless, Antarctica represents opportunities for Global South states to realize shared cosmopolitan democracy and environmental justice goals. While contemporary media coverage of the southernmost continent has focused on its vital role in global climate change, Antarctica is also important for Global South states because it is a contested, non-sovereign area without a clearly defined status or future (international or global commons, Common Heritage of Mankind, global wilderness?) that could be integral to their future development. The paper advocates the benefits for developing states of participating in Antarctic governance, drawing on theories of cosmopolitan democracy and environmental justice to demonstrate that these can be utilized by Global South states to reinvigorate and move forward international debates about the role, status and future of Antarctica, and provides a central place for Global South states in that future. Additionally, these theories can be practically applied to Global South development goals with respect to issues such as the management of Antarctica, access to sustainable resources and benefit sharing from Antarctic resource extraction.

The future of Antarctica's surface winds simulated by a high-resolution global climate model: 1. Model description and validation

One of the key components of Antarctica's harsh climate is its renowned katabatic winds, which are among the fiercest surface winds on Earth. Caused primarily by strong surface cooling over the sloping ice surface, these semipermanent winds result primarily from the strong surface temperature inversion and associated temperature deficit between the surface layer and the free atmosphere aloft. Katabatic winds exert a strong effect on the mass budget of the Antarctic ice sheet by affecting snowdrift (sublimation) and by (partially) regulating the net atmospheric moisture transports toward the Antarctic. It has been suggested that greenhouse warming may lead to reduced surface cooling and weakened katabatic winds. This is tested by using a global climate model (EC-Earth) in prescribed sea surface temperature simulations of the present-day (2002–2006) and future (2094–2098) climates. Because simulated topographically induced katabatic winds are likely to depend on the model grid, we employ two model resolutions: (1) T159L62 (~100 km, 62 vertical levels) and (2) T799L91 (~20 km, 91 vertical levels). It is shown here that present-day surface winds over Antarctica in high resolution are generally stronger than in low resolution, especially in the escarpment region with its steep orography. Simulated surface winds are generally underestimated with respect to observations, in particular the strongest winds (occurring over steep slopes), and especially in low resolution. The seasonal cycle in surface winds is simulated fairly accurately. Surface temperatures are also relatively well simulated (when corrected for elevation differences), especially in high resolution.

The future of Antarctica's surface winds simulated by a high-resolution global climate model: 2. Drivers of 21st century changes

Antarctica's katabatic winds are among the strongest near-surface winds on Earth, and among the most consistent ones. As these winds are primarily due to the strong surface cooling, greenhouse warming of the surface may act to reduce the strength of these winds as well as their consistency. Here we use the atmospheric component of the global climate model EC-Earth in prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) simulations of the present day (2002–2006) and future (2094–2098) climates, using two model resolutions: (1) T159L62 (~100 km, 62 vertical levels), and (2) T799L91 (~20 km, 91 vertical levels) to investigate changes in Antarctica's surface winds and the reasons thereof. Circumpolar westerlies over the Southern Ocean strengthen and shift poleward because of the deepening of the circumpolar trough and the associated increase in Southern Annular Mode (SAM), especially in high resolution, causing weaker coastal easterlies. Generally, surface wind speeds over the Antarctica mainland exhibit a small decrease. According to the simulations, the temperature deficit (or inversion strength) and associated katabatic forcing exhibit only minor changes over the continent. Changes in the surface winds over Antarctica's slopes can thus be attributed mainly to changes in the synoptic forcing (large-scale pressure gradient). Hence, with modeled 21st century changes in the katabatic forcing being small, changes in zonal and meridional surface winds in and around Antarctica are largely decoupled from those over the Southern Ocean and are governed by changes in synoptic forcing and large-scale pressure gradients. As a result, these changes are largely independent on model resolution.

Amongst the palm trees: ruminations on the 1959 Antarctic Treaty

Surrounded by potted palm trees, the 12 delegations including the Soviet Union invited to participate by the United States government decided, over the course of six intense weeks, the legal, political and scientific future of the Antarctic continent and surrounding seas. Thanks in part to the neatly typed entries of Brian Roberts, the Foreign Office's polar advisor for many years; we have at least one source that vividly conveys (from the perspective of a British delegate of course) the febrile atmosphere surrounding the conference (see King and Savours 1995; Dodds 2008). Notwithstanding the achievements of the recently completed 1957–1958 International Geophysical Year and its extension the International Geophysical Co-operation (1959), there was no reason to presume that an Antarctic Treaty would be recognised as legitimate and sufficiently robust to accommodate all the parties concerned. Indeed, it is not uncommon to read in the reports prepared by the delegates for their domestic political leaders, a whole series of counter-factual possibilities if the negotiations failed to secure a modus vivendi for the polar region. We may not assume, therefore, that it was in any way inevitable that a treaty (lasting now for over fifty years) would have emerged when the delegates sat down to discuss the future of Antarctica in October 1959. The treaty was nearly not ratified in Argentina for example because of the anger felt by some political leaders about Article IV and what they considered the ‘giving away’ of Argentine sovereign rights.

Thinking about Antarctic Heritage: Kaleidoscopes and filters

The preliminary results of a project that is currently investigating the nature and range of meanings of Antarctic heritage are explored. The project involves two visits to Scott Base, and the subjects of the qualitative research are the members of the New Zealand Antarctic community. Work so far suggests that different meanings do exist, and a four-fold typology of meanings is suggested which needs to be considered in decisions affecting the future of Antarctica.

Book Reviews

Book Reviewed in this article: Robert Beauregard (Ed.) Atop the Urban Hierarchy. G. Cook (Ed.) The Future of Antarctica: Exploitation versus Preservation. K. Suter Antarctica: Private Property or Public Heritage. P. Simpson‐Housley Antarctica: Exploration Perception and Metaphor. Dharam Ghai and Jessica M. Vivian (Eds.) Grassroots Environmental Action: People's Participation in Sustainable Development. A. Parker, M. Russo, D. Sommer and P. Yaeger (Eds.) Nationalisms and Sexualities. and Richard WalkerThe New Social Economy, Reworking the Division of Labor. Andrew Sayer and Richard WalkerThe New Social Economy, Reworking the Division of Labor.

The Future of Antarctica under the Environmental Protocol

The continent of Antarctica holds immense value as a wilderness area and a repository of scientific knowledge. This report maintains that the Protocol to the Antarctic Treaty on Environmental Protection, signed in 1991, is a positive first step in ensuring that Antarctica preserves its status as a global scientific laboratory, wildlife refuge, and arena for international cooperation.

Antarctic Resources and International Law: Japan, the United States, and the Future of Antarctica

Antarctic Resources and International Law: Japan, the United States, and the Future of Antarctica

New Zealand and Antarctica

In the coming decade the continuing feasibility of the international arrangements devised for the use and governance of Antarctica will be challenged. The framework for international co-operation which has worked so well for many years must be adjusted to accommodate the sometimes disparate interests of those nations with a long-standing involvement in the Antarctic. As well, consideration must be given to the views of those nations which are suggesting with increasing vigour that the future of Antarctica should be the concern of the whole international community and not remain in the hands of a few. New Zealand's long-time involvement with the Antarctic means that it will inevitably be a participant in the various deliberations undertaken to work out solutions to these difficulties.