Future Incarceration Research Articles

Mass incarceration as a driver of the tuberculosis epidemic in Latin America and projected effects of policy alternatives: a mathematical modelling study

Tuberculosis incidence is increasing in Latin America, where the incarcerated population has nearly quadrupled since 1990. We aimed to quantify the impact of historical and future incarceration policies on the tuberculosis epidemic, accounting for effects in and beyond prisons. In this modelling study, we calibrated dynamic compartmental transmission models to historical and contemporary data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru, which comprise approximately 80% of the region's incarcerated population and tuberculosis burden. The model was fit independently for each country to incarceration and tuberculosis data from 1990 to 2023 (specific dates were country dependent). The model does not include HIV, drug resistance, gender or sex, or age structure. Using historical counterfactual scenarios, we estimated the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF) for incarceration and the excess population-level burden attributable to increasing incarceration prevalence since 1990. We additionally projected the effect of alternative incarceration policies on future population tuberculosis incidence. Population tuberculosis incidence in 2019 was 29·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9-36·8) higher than expected without the rise in incarceration since 1990, corresponding to 34 393 (28 295-42 579) excess incident cases across countries. The incarceration tPAF in 2019 was 27·2% (20·9-35·8), exceeding estimates for other risk factors like HIV, alcohol use disorder, and undernutrition. Compared with a scenario where incarceration rates remain stable at current levels, a gradual 50% reduction in prison admissions and duration of incarceration by 2034 would reduce population tuberculosis incidence by over 10% in all countries except Mexico. The historical rise in incarceration in Latin America has resulted in a large excess tuberculosis burden that has been under-recognised to date. International health agencies, ministries of justice, and national tuberculosis programmes should collaborate to address this health crisis with comprehensive strategies, including decarceration. National Institutes of Health.

Criminal justice transitions among adolescents in Australia: A multi-state model

PurposeThis study aimed to identify key transitional pathways in the criminal justice system from adolescence to adulthood and the risk factors associated with the escalation of criminal justice involvement over time. MethodWe retrospectively linked offending records from 1994 to 2022 and mental health records from 2001 to 2022 for a cohort of 1556 adolescents identified through four health surveys in New South Wales, Australia. Transition probabilities were calculated using the Aalen-Johansen method, and the hazards of transition-specific covariates were estimated. ResultsThe median age of adolescent entry was 15 years. The cohort was predominantly male (87.5%) and non-Indigenous (65.6%). Among incarcerated adolescents, 76.8% transitioned to adult incarceration. Transition probabilities were the highest among those aged 10–13 years. Among those with mental disorders, psychosis was associated with transitions to adolescent and adult incarceration. Other risk factors for future incarceration include being male, Indigenous, socio-economically disadvantaged, having a history of adolescent incarceration, and being diagnosed with substance use and behavioural disorders. ConclusionYounger adolescents have higher transition probabilities to more intense criminal justice involvement. Legislative and policy reforms are needed to delay the onset of adolescent criminal justice involvement and ensure age-appropriate rehabilitative strategies to reduce recidivism.

Immigrant background, incarceration history and recidivism among adults assessed for illicit substance use severity: Findings from a Swedish registry study

BackgroundIn Sweden, as in other countries, individuals with immigrant backgrounds are disproportionately represented within the incarcerated population. This study examined the association between immigrant background and future incarceration for individuals assessed for illicit substance use severity, while considering their prior incarceration history. MethodsUsing data from Swedish Addiction Severity Index (ASI) assessments linked to register data from Statistics Sweden, we employed Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression models to analyse differences in incarceration histories within five years before and after ASI assessments based on immigrant backgrounds. Additionally, Cox proportional-hazard models were used to assess the likelihood of post-assessment incarceration among these groups. ResultsImmigrant background was positively associated with pre- and post-assessment incarceration. First- and second-generation immigrants from the Global South had longer periods of incarceration in the five years before assessments compared to native Swedes. Post-assessment, first-generation immigrants showed longer periods of incarceration. Survival analyses supported these findings, indicating a higher risk of prolonged post-assessment incarceration among all immigrant groups, particularly first-generation immigrants from the Global South. ConclusionAmong individuals assessed for illicit drug use within Swedish municipalities, those with immigrant backgrounds faced higher incarceration risks, even after controlling for substance use severity and prior incarceration. Tailored interventions and support systems are vital to prevent re-entry into the criminal justice system. Timely actions can break re-offending cycles, redirecting paths away from reoffending and towards legal reintegration, thereby reducing incarceration and recidivism rates.

Morality, self-control, age, type of offence and sentence length as predictors of psychopathy amongst female incarcerated offenders in South Africa.

There has been an increase in female incarcerated offenders nationally and internationally. Despite this trend, literature and research on female offenders remain limited compared to their male counterparts. Evidence of the relationship between certain personality disorders and offending behaviour has led numerous countries to prioritise identifying and assessing personality disorders among the offender population. Psychopathic personality traits may contribute to women's risk factors for expressing antisocial behaviours, resulting in their potential future incarceration. Thus, a need exists to understand possible factors that may predict the expression of psychopathic traits in females, which may have notable utility among female offenders. This study aimed to investigate possible predictor variables of psychopathy amongst incarcerated female offenders in South Africa. A quantitative research approach, non-experimental research type, and correlational research design were employed. A convenience sampling technique was used. The sample consisted of 139 (N = 139) female offenders housed in two correctional centres in South Africa who voluntarily participated in this study. Correlation analyses and hierarchical regression analysis procedures were conducted to analyse the results. Results indicated (i) a certain combination of predictor variables that statistically and practically significantly explained both primary and secondary psychopathy and (ii) individual predictor variables (e.g., Impulsivity, Simple Tasks, Risk-Seeking, and Self-Centredness) that explained both primary and secondary psychopathy statistically and practically significantly. This study provides valuable information about the possible predictor variables of psychopathy amongst female offenders within the context of South Africa. However, further research must be conducted to validate these findings and advance our knowledge on this topic.

The Effects of Youth Incarceration in Adult Institutions on Future Incarceration

The Effects of Youth Incarceration in Adult Institutions on Future Incarceration

Social externalities of women empowerment: Evidence from suffrage movements of late nineteenth and early twentieth century United States

AbstractPrevious literature suggests that empowering women is associated with children's improved outcomes. However, little is known about its effects on children's later‐life crime and incarceration. We argue that women empowerment through suffrage law changes during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in the US generated incentives for women to invest in their children's human capital. The accumulated human capital then has the potential to reduce future incarceration of children. We use full‐count censuses 1920–1930, implement a difference‐in‐difference framework, and empirically show that childhood exposure to suffrage laws is associated with considerable reductions in incarceration. The effects appear to be primarily driven by decreases in male and Black incarceration. The balancing tests rule out the concern that the effects are driven by demographic compositional changes or endogenous changes in other state‐level characteristics. Furthermore, an event‐study analysis rejects the concern that the effects are driven by preexisting trends in incarceration among exposed cohorts. The findings of this research note offer informative implications for overlooked externalities of women empowerment in a historical setting.

The Role of Adolescent Anxious Mood, Marijuana Use, and Locus of Control in the School to Prison Pipeline.

Racial disparities are evident in both educational outcomes and incarceration rates when comparing African American and white youth. It is essential to understand the school-to-prison pipeline and the ways in which school discipline practices and other factors disproportionately affect African American students, limit educational attainment, and increase risk for future incarceration in order to improve students' educational and life outcomes. This study explores how marijuana, anxiety and locus of control interact with school disciplinary practices in pushing students out of schools and into the criminal justice system. Analyses utilizing data from the Woodlawn Study, a longitudinal study of African Americans followed from first grade through adolescence, young adulthood, and midlife (n = 1,242), reveal that suspension or expulsion, frequent marijuana use, and locus of control (males only) all predict criminal justice system involvement above and beyond not graduating from high school, but do not interact significantly. This study offers avenues for intervention to reduce disparities.

Pretrial Detention and Incarceration Decisions for Foreign Nationals: a Mixed-Methods Approach

An increase in the mobility of persons across national borders coincides with an overrepresentation of foreign nationals in the penal systems of Western Europe, though this phenomenon is not yet well understood. This paper positions itself at the intersection of migration and criminology by examining citizenship disparities in pretrial detention and whether said disparities affect incarceration outcomes. Leveraging a mixed-methods strategy, we make use of individual-level criminal case and interview data from the Netherlands. Our quasi-experimental quantitative analyses show significant and substantive differences in the assignment of pretrial detention to foreign citizens, which affects the risk of future incarceration. Our interviews reveal that citizenship disparities manifest themselves through multiple mechanisms: (i) foreign defendants are viewed as flight risks, (ii) fewer non-prison sanctions are assigned in cases involving foreign defendants, and (iii) pretrial detention is seen as an efficient method for punishment.

A Systematic Review up to 2018 of HIV and Associated Factors Among Criminal Justice-Involved (CJI) Black Sexual and Gender Minority Populations in the United States (US).

Black men who have sex with men (BMSM) and Black transgender women (BTW) are impacted by dual epidemics of HIV and incarceration. We advanced understanding of the relationship between criminal justice involvement, HIV, and other key HIV-related characteristics among these key populations in the US. We conducted a systematic review up to 2018 and 47 articles met the inclusion criteria of scientific publications involving quantitative findings of US-based HIV-related studies focused on criminal justice–involved (CJI) BMSM and BTW. Overall, there was a dearth of studies focused specifically on BTW. Criminal justice involvement was relatively high among BMSM and BTW and more pronounced among BTW. The current evidence favors no association between incarceration and HIV acquisition among BMSM with limited information about BTW. Criminal justice involvement was associated with a greater likelihood of STIs among BMSM with mixed results for sexual risk behaviors. Criminal justice settings served as an important venue for HIV testing/diagnosis for both BMSM and BTW. However, these settings were not conducive for subsequent stages of the HIV care continuum. Studies pointed to an independent association between criminal justice involvement, substance use, housing instability, and greater odds of incarceration among BMSM who were unemployed and had limited education. Future incarceration was associated with high levels of perceived racism among BMSM. Among young BMSM, high network criminal justice prevalence was also associated with sexual risk behaviors, poorer mental health outcomes, drug use, and housing instability. CJI BMSM and BTW represent a critical subpopulation to end the HIV epidemic in the US.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40615-021-01076-7.

The Impact of Police Attitudes Towards Offenders on Law-Enforcement Assisted Diversion Decisions

Diversion is a prevalent alternative to traditional criminal justice processing, especially at the pre-trial stage. More recently, pre-arrest diversion has been implemented to avert the consequences of arrest, pre-trial proceedings, and future incarceration. Pre-booking diversion programs rely on the willingness of officers to use their discretionary authority to divert low-level offenders to community-based treatment programs in lieu of arrest, raising considerations about how law enforcement view offenders. Using data collected from a survey distributed during a Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD) training session for officers in one jurisdiction in the Rocky Mountain West (N = 118), the current study examines the impact of officer attitudes toward offenders on their decision to divert individuals. Findings indicate that officers who hold an optimistic view toward offender rehabilitation are more likely to divert offenders. Results and their significance for practical implementation of law enforcement pre-arrest diversion efforts are discussed.

Caregivers’ Expectations, Reflected Appraisals, and Arrests among Adolescents Who Experienced Parental Incarceration

This research sought to identify a potential process by which intergenerational crime occurs, focusing on the effect of parental incarceration on adolescents’ subsequent arrests. We drew from Matsueda’s work on reflected appraisals as an explanatory mechanism for this effect. Thus, the present research examined whether caregivers’ and adolescents’ expectations for adolescents’ future incarceration sequentially mediated the effect of parental incarceration on adolescents’ actual arrest outcomes. Propensity score matching was used to examine this effect in a sample of 1,735 15- to 16-year-olds using NLSY97 data. Parental incarceration was positively related to caregivers’ expectations of adolescents’ future arrest. Moreover, caregivers’ expectations were strongly associated with adolescents’ expectations. Finally, the effect of parental incarceration on adolescents’ actual future arrest likelihood was partially mediated by caregivers’ and adolescents’ expectations for this outcome. This study revealed support for the proposition that the experience of parental incarceration may influence adolescents’ negative outcomes through reflected appraisals.

Early adulthood psychiatric diagnoses and the subsequent risk of life-time incarceration: a cohort study.

The association between incarceration and psychiatric disorders has been noted. Yet, existing studies are cross-sectional or examine the risk of recidivism, which has limited the predictive validity of psychiatric disorders as a risk factor for incarceration. To overcome this limitation, this study used a prospective cohort to examine whether psychiatric diagnoses in early adulthood predicted incarceration throughout a 30-year follow-up. It tested the association between psychiatric diagnoses with future incarcerations, their number and durations, controlling for education and ethnic status. This study merged data from three sources in Israel: a prospective 10-year birth cohort study of young adults aged 25-34, conducted in the 1980s (N = 4914) that included a psychiatric interview; data from the Prison Service, including the cause, number and duration of incarcerations; and from the Vital Statistics Registry on death records. Multivariate analysis showed that substance-use disorders, antisocial personality and lower levels of education predicted future incarceration, their number and maximum duration. The remainder diagnoses were not significantly associated with future incarceration. Results limited the prediction of future incarcerations to persons diagnosed with substance use and antisocial personality, and do not support an independent predictive association between additional psychiatric diagnoses and future incarceration.

Parenting from a County Jail: Parenting from Beyond the Bars

The incarceration of mothers affects 1.7 million minor children who are at high risk of behavioral problems, emotional trauma, and future incarceration. The jail setting removes women from society for brief periods of time providing an opportunity to offer essential interventions for those who will be returning to the community, and possibly their children, rather quickly. Utilizing a pre- and post-test quasi-experimental design, we measured the self-reported treatment effects for female inmates, housed in a county jail in the New York metropolitan area, who completed an evidence-based parenting program. Program participants reported reduced depression, increased parental knowledge, and increased communication with their families and fellow inmates. The results indicated that alternative ways of measuring program success are needed – particularly for populations who present with long histories of criminal justice involvement and drug use.

Acculturation and crime: Protecting the male and female offspring of U.S. immigrants against future arrest and incarceration

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this study was to assess the effect of acculturation on future criminality in the children of immigrants. This research question was explored in 3,211 children of immigrants (1,468 boys and 1,743 girls) whose parents had immigrated to the United States. Analyses revealed that longer residence at the time of initial interview (mean age = 14 years) predicted an increased rate of arrest and incarceration five to ten years later. On the other hand, childhood identification as an American predicted decreased risk of arrest and incarceration. Both findings were restricted to boys. These results suggest that the male offspring of U.S. immigrants are affected in both positive and negative ways by the acculturation experience and that while passive domains of assimilation (time spent in the U.S.) may place the offspring of immigrants at increased risk for future criminality, certain active domains (identification as an American) may do just the opposite.

Persistence in incarcerations: global comparative evidence

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess how incarcerations persist across the world. The focus is on 163 countries for the period 2010-2015. Design/methodology/approach The empirical evidence is based on generalized method of moments. In order to increase room for policy implications, the data set is decomposed into sub-samples based on income levels, religious domination, openness to the sea, regional proximity and legal origins. Findings The following main findings are established. Incarcerations are more persistent in low income, Christian-protestant and Latin American countries while comparative evidence is not feasible on the basis of landlockedness and legal origins owing to unfavorable post-estimation diagnostic tests. Justifications for the comparative advantages and relevance of findings to theory building in public economics are discussed. Practical implications First, income levels matter in the persistence of incarcerations because low-income nations vis-à-vis their high-income counterparts have less financial resources with which to prevent and deal with events like terrorism, political instability and violence that lead to incarcerations. Second, the intuition for religious domination builds on the fact that liberal societies can be more associated with incarcerations compared to conservative societies. The main theoretical contribution of this study to the literature is that the authors have built on empirical validity to provide theoretical justification as to why categorizing countries on the basis of selected fundamental characteristics determine cross-country variations in incarcerations. Such evidence is important for theory building in public economics. Originality/value It is important for policy makers to understand the persistence of incarcerations across nations because resources could be allocated to regions and countries, contingent on the relative importance of future incarceration tendencies.

Race, Wealth and Incarceration: Results from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth

Using the 1979 cohort of the National Longitudinal Study of Youth to explore the interwoven links between race, wealth and incarceration, this study examines the data on race and wealth status before and after incarceration. Data indicate that although higher levels of wealth were associated with lower rates of incarceration, the likelihood of future incarceration still was higher for blacks at every level of wealth compared to the white likelihood, as well as the Hispanic likelihood, which fell below the white likelihood for some levels of wealth. Further, we find that racial wealth gaps existed among those who would be incarcerated in the future and also among the previously incarcerated.

Service Needs for Incarcerated Adults: Exploring Gender Differences

Although men comprise the largest segment of the jail population, women are entering jails at increasingly higher rates than men. Previous research has found that incarceration is associated with multiple factors, including homelessness, substance use disorders, and mental illness, however, gender differences in services needs for female and male inmates is understudied. This study explores gender differences among a representative sample of incarcerated individuals (n = 725) from a Midwestern, urban jail. Women in the sample presented with higher rates of homelessness prior to incarceration, anticipated postincarceration homelessness, serious mental illness, substance use disorder, and trauma histories than men, as well as higher rates of multiple and co-occurring risk factors. These findings point to the need for social work interventions initiated at jail intake. Such interventions could impact parenting, housing stability, and mental health and prevent future incarceration, reoffending and relapse for this high-risk population of women.

Laparoscopic Repair of a Left Paraduodenal Hernia Presenting With Acute Bowel Obstruction

An internal hernia is any protrusion of a solid organ or a hollow viscus through a defect within the abdominal cavity. Paraduodenal hernias (PDHs) are rare; however, they are the most common form of internal hernias. We present a case of a left PDH in a 59-year-old healthy woman who presented with acute bowel obstruction. The PDH was diagnosed preoperatively using computed tomography scan. Laparoscopic exploration of the abdomen was then performed for reduction of the hernia. Using this approach, we managed to close the defect with intracorporeal continuous suturing with the aim of avoiding future incarceration. The patient was discharged 60 hours postoperation in a good condition, compared with 3 to 28 days postoperation reported in most of the literature. Our search of the english language literature revealed only 16 reported cases of laparoscopic repair of PDH. We believe that laparoscopic treatment of PDH in experienced hands is recommended in selected cases as it decreases the morbidity and significantly shortens the hospital stay.

Governance and Prison Gangs

How can people who lack access to effective government institutions establish property rights and facilitate exchange? The illegal narcotics trade in Los Angeles has flourished despite its inability to rely on state-based formal institutions of governance. An alternative system of governance has emerged from an unexpected source—behind bars. The Mexican Mafia prison gang can extort drug dealers on the street because they wield substantial control over inmates in the county jail system and because drug dealers anticipate future incarceration. The gang's ability to extract resources creates incentives for them to provide governance institutions that mitigate market failures among Hispanic drug-dealing street gangs, including enforcing deals, protecting property rights, and adjudicating disputes. Evidence collected from federal indictments and other legal documents related to the Mexican Mafia prison gang and numerous street gangs supports this claim.

Incarceration Rates of Persons With First-Admission Psychosis

This prospective study examined jail stay in a cohort of persons with schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders who experienced their first hospital admission and who were participating in the Suffolk County Mental Health Project. Demographic and clinical risk factors for jail placement were investigated over a four-year period after hospital discharge. The sample included 538 first-admission respondents diagnosed as meeting DSM-IV criteria for having schizophrenia, psychotic mood disorder, or other psychotic disorders. Initial interviews occurred in the hospital; face-to-face follow-ups occurred at the six-, 24-, and 48-month points, and telephone contact was maintained every three to six months. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to examine the demographic and clinical risk factors. Forty-seven respondents (9%) were incarcerated over the follow-up period. Among them, 20 were incarcerated multiple times. The prevalence, incidence, reasons for incarceration, and time served did not vary significantly by diagnosis. The most significant predictors of jail stay and time to incarceration during the follow-up were being male or black and having been incarcerated before admission. Predictive effects of other risk factors (for example, symptom severity or substance abuse) were smaller or statistically insignificant. The results suggest a need for mental health care professionals to routinely evaluate, document, and collaboratively address incarceration history, especially when working with black males, in an effort to avert future incarceration.