Future Of Australia Research Articles

The future of Australia’s hydrogen export industry: everyone’s got an opinion

The future of Australia’s hydrogen export industry: everyone’s got an opinion

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy January to June 2022

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy January to June 2022

Panel discussion: Investing through unprecedented change

In a rapidly changing risk–reward environment, this session will bring together senior government ministers, bankers and analysts to discuss how we can continue to invest for the future of Australia’s oil and gas sector and for the Australian economy more widely. To view the video, click on the link to the right.

Livelihood discourses at the water-energy-food-nexus in Victoria’s Coal Seam Gas (CSG) debate

ABSTRACT Onshore Coal Seam Gas (CSG) extraction is a controversial practice that has attracted scrutiny from stakeholders surrounding its risk to livelihoods and the environment at the water-energy-food nexus. Victoria’s 2016 public Inquiry into Unconventional Gas provided an opportunity to evaluate how stakeholders conceptualise the role of livelihoods at the water-energy-food nexus and how discourses were deployed to interpret the risks and benefits of CSG development. This paper argues that the relationship between CSG, livelihood assets and resource security is discursively constructed as a form of power and plays a significant role in both nexus modelling and CSG decision-making. This is supported by the application of Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA), which determined that stakeholders regularly considered livelihood assets to be crucial to both sustaining livelihoods and resource security in Victoria. Based on these findings, a revised water-energy-food nexus model is presented where livelihood assets are positioned at the centre of the nexus framework. This paper concludes by considering how competing environmental discourses are likely to shape the future of Australia’s water, energy and food security in ongoing CSG debates more generally.

Workplace reform: a new social contract for Australia

The COVID‐19 crisis impels us to think about the future of Australia in many dimensions and from different perspectives including our social, economic and governance structures. A new social contract at work in Australia should rest on three pillars: a full employment policy coupled with a strong safety net for those not able to find work; a comprehensive system of post‐secondary and vocational training, and easy transition between them; industrial relations reforms to provide a stronger voice for workers in decisions affecting them in the workplace. These pillars should be based not only on the historical experience of Australia but also draw on successful examples from elsewhere. The Nordic countries, for example, have based their social and economic systems on a social partnership approach that relies on voluntary cooperation between interest groups rather than legislation.

A zero-carbon, reliable and affordable energy future in Australia

Australia has one of the highest per capita consumption of energy and emissions of greenhouse gases in the world. It is also the global leader in rapid per capita annual deployment of new solar and wind energy, which is causing the country’s emissions to decline. Australia is located at low-moderate latitudes along with three quarters of the world’s population. These factors make the Australian experience globally significant. In this study, a fully decarbonised electricity system is modelled together with complete electrification of heating, transport and industry in Australia leading to an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. An energy supply-demand balance is simulated based on long-term (10 years), high-resolution (half-hourly) meteorological and energy demand data. A significant feature of this model is that short-term off-river energy storage and distributed energy storage are utilised to support the large-scale integration of variable solar and wind energy. The results show that high levels of energy reliability and affordability can be effectively achieved through a synergy of flexible energy sources; interconnection of electricity grids over large areas; response from demand-side participation; and mass energy storage. This strategy could be a rapid and generic pathway towards zero-carbon energy futures within the Sunbelt.

Some personal reflections on the present and future of Australia’s fauna in an increasingly fire‐prone continent

Australia already has the highest rate of species loss of any region in the world, yet the risks suddenly worsened in the spring–summer of 2019–20, with an unprecedented chain of wildfires covering 10 M ha of the nation’s forest and woodland estate. Fires of this scale were unprecedented and not factored into recovery plans for Threatened Species or ecosystem management in general. EMR asks one of Australia’s most pre‐eminent ecologists what can be done to ameliorate the losses and better avoid and respond to such impacts occurring in the future?

The Future of Australia’s NBN Continued

TelSoc has held its first forum on the future of Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN). Three papers from that forum are published in this issue. TelSoc is planning a second forum, discussing the user potential of the NBN, in October 2019. The historical reprint in this issue is also NBN-related about online learning. The technical papers in this issue concern architectural issues in the Internet of Things and cybersecurity. The Journal welcomes further contributions on telecommunications and the digital economy.
 
 
 

The power of online connectivity: is the future of Australia's midwifery education a flexible online learning experience?

Spontaneous nasalization is the emergence of distinctive nasalization in contexts lacking an historical etymological nasal. In Thai, low and mid-low vowels nasalize after /h/ and to a lesser degree after /ʔ/. It has been reasoned that nasalization after /h/ may occur because breathiness and nasalization are acoustically similar; both introduce higher energy at low frequencies and increase spectral tilt. Glottal consonants may generally facilitate nasalization because aerodynamically they do not require velopharyngeal closure. We investigated velopharyngeal opening (VPO) during vowels after /h/ and/ ʔ/ and measured spectral tilt (H1–H2). We measured VPO by processing oblique ultra-fast magnetic resonance images of the velopharyngeal port. Four Thai speakers exhibited a complex system of VPO that varied based on vowel height and preceding consonant. Low vowels after /h/ manifested more physiological nasalization than low vowels after /ʔ/, while the former were often produced with higher spectral tilt, which may be indicative of either increased breathiness or nasalization. While VPO is likely responsible for impressions of greater nasalization after /h/, our findings suggest that breathiness and VPO may interact in the spontaneously nasalized vowels of Thai.

Could do better! A high school market survey of fish labelling in Sydney, Australia, using DNA barcodes.

BackgroundProcessed seafood products are not readily identifiable based on physical characteristics, which leaves the industry vulnerable to high levels of product mislabelling (globally estimated at 5–30% mislabelled). This is both a food safety issue and a consumer protection issue as cheaper species could be substituted for more expensive species. DNA barcoding is proving to be a valuable tool for authentication of fish products. We worked with high school students to perform a market survey and subsequent species assessment via DNA barcoding to investigate the accuracy of fish product names used by retailers in Sydney, Australia.MethodsSixty-eight fish samples, sold under 50 different common names, were purchased anonymously from two retailers in Sydney. Each product name was recorded and reconciled with the Australian Fish Names Standard (AFNS). Samples were DNA barcoded and resulting sequences were deposited in the online Barcode of Life Data system using the simplified Student Data Portal interface.ResultsForty percent of the fish names did not comply with the AFNS, however, half of these were either spelling errors or vendors supplied more information than the standard requires. The other half of the non-compliant samples were given common names not listed on the AFNS. Despite this lack of standardization, DNA barcode data confirmed the retailers’ identifications for 93% of samples and 90% of species sampled.DiscussionThe level of mislabelling we report for Sydney retailers (7% of samples or 10% of species) compares favorably with the global rates of 5–30%, but unfavorably with the only previous DNA barcode fish authentication study for Australia, which found no confirmed mislabelling in Hobart. Our study sampled mostly Australian produce, only two retailers and no restaurants. Results of our limited sample suggest that although many Sydney fish retailers attempt to implement the voluntary fish name standards, the standards are inadequate. As Australia imports 75% of its seafood, and in other countries restaurants generally show lower levels of compliance than retailers, broader surveys are needed before generalizing these results. DNA barcoding is a powerful yet simple method supported by accessible online analytical tools. Incorporation of fish barcoding into high school science classes provided students with valuable firsthand experience in scientific research and drew together different strands of the NSW curriculum relating to genetics and sustainability. Given the techniques, equipment, and reagents are now readily accessible, we expect to see greater uptake of DNA barcoding technology by high schools, citizen scientists and consumer groups in Australia in future. However, there remains much scope for further development of DNA barcode diagnostics (both data and analytical methods) for commercial fish species.

Planning for a Prosumer Future: The Case of Central Park, Sydney

Rapid convergence of utility and mobility solutions enabled by data and the Internet of Things is future-proofing economies around the world, delivering liveability, sustainability and resilience, and importantly decreases pressure on utility bills and infrastructure costs. Australians cannot miss out on the many benefits brought to families and businesses by the digitisation of infrastructure and services are bringing—not just reduced household bills but also the ability to generate income as prosumers, not consumers. Localised sustainable Next-Gen infrastructure and services are growing from within communities, creating a new class of consumer—the prosumer: where customers are more than consumers but also producers. Prosumers have the ability to generate free energy from the sun at home or office and sell the excess, recycle water and waste reaping the financial benefit, avoid the second largest household expense of a car by sharing mobility, and access shared data networks to plug in and play at little cost. Planning frameworks play a critical role in enabling a new utility prosumer future in Australia and reform of planning gateway processes is essential. This article highlights Sydney’s Central Park as a best practice urban infill development showcasing how the flows of water and energy are organised to provide enhanced sustainability, liveability and resilience for the local and neighbouring communities. Central Park proves the benefits of taking a precinct approach to utility and mobility services. It shows how these benefits can grow and be exported to neighbouring buildings and existing communities, in this case University of Technology driving inclusion and affordability. Central Park also demonstrates the opportunities to drive deeper socio/environmental benefits by enabling prosumer services through low-cost access to utility services and circular resource flows. Importantly, this article demonstrates that Central Park’s phenomenal sustainability benefits can be replicated at scale in land release communities, but planning reform is required.

Material Flow Analysis of the End-of-Life Photovoltaic Waste in Australia

The photovoltaic module capacity has been growing remarkably in Australia from only 0.777 MW in 2001 to 8000 MW in 2018. The main reasons behind this evolution is, consumer awareness about the PV panels’ reliability and durability, overall environmental benefits, and government encouragement by providing reasonable tariffs. The useful lifetime of PV modules is around 30 years; after which they are converted to waste. As a result, a huge amount of outdated photovoltaic modules will be discarded and consigned to the waste stream in the near future in Australia. This paper analyses the potential emerging PV waste flow that will be generated between 2031 and 2047 in Australia and highlights the proportion of the waste in terms of the types of materials. It is predicted that the cumulative PV waste will reach around 1 million tonnes. The main components of the waste are 554 kilotonnes (kt) of Glass, followed by 124 kilotonnes of Aluminum. PV wastes are classified into different groups based on their characteristics, and the analysis results show that the future PV waste will contain about 344 tonnes of the precious metals like Ag, 63 tonnes of hazardous types of metals like Cd, Pb and Se, as well as the 4103 tonnes of other the critical substances. Finally, this paper sheds more valuable insights into the management pathway of this complex waste from different perspectives such as policy and regulation, recycling and reverse logistics supply chain.

Some economic estimates of gas-fired power generation in a carbon constrained Australia

The future of Australia’s electricity industry has resulted in significant debate about the mix of electricity generating technologies. The Finkel Review and ensuing National Electricity Guarantee policy discussion have revealed divisions between key stakeholders over the future generating mix between renewable and fossil fuel power generation options. A portfolio of technologies will be required, including the need for gas-fired power generation with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS), to provide dispatchable synchronous electricity. Gas Vision 2050 has stated that CCS, along with biogas and hydrogen, will be one of the three transformational technologies affecting the gas industry going forward. Through the use of a techno-economic model, the costs for a hypothetical new-build gas-fired power plant in the Hunter Valley with and without CCS were estimated. The model is cross referenced with other authoritative publications including the CO2CRC Australian Power Generation Technology Report. The model considers the base-case scenario and sensitivity analysis of key cost drivers such as the domestic gas price and labour. The results of the model will enable key energy and gas industry stakeholders to make informed decisions about the vital role of gas as a power generation technology in Australia to deliver dispatchable synchronous electricity in a carbon constrained environment.

A public opinion survey of four future scenarios for Australia in 2050

Scenario planning and the use of alternative futures have been used successfully to assist organisations, communities and countries to move towards desired outcomes (Dator, 2009). In this study we used a unique combination of scenario planning and a national public opinion survey to explore preferred futures for Australia in 2050. The approach used four future scenarios for Australia in 2050 as the basis for an online national public opinion survey entitled Australia: Our Future, Your Voice. Scenario development was based on a review of a broad range of scenarios for Australia and globally. We then developed four synthesis scenarios based on two axes of individual versus community orientation, and national focus on GDP growth versus a focus on well-being more broadly defined. The scenarios were labelled: (1) Free Enterprise (FE); (2) Strong Individualism (SI); (3) Coordinated Action (CA); and (4) Community Well-being (CW). We created a website that described each of these scenarios and invited people to complete a survey after they had reviewed the scenarios.The survey engaged 2575 adults in two groups: (1) a targeted statistically representative national sample (n = 2083) and (2) a self-selected sample (n = 492). Results from both groups and across all demographic categories revealed that a majority of participants preferred the Community Well-being (CW) scenario. 73% (Representative) and 61% (Self Select) ranked this scenario as 1st or 2nd. We also asked which scenario Australia was headed toward. 32% of the Representative sample and 50% of the Self-Selected sample participants ranked the Free Enterprise (FE) scenario as the most likely future. CW was ranked least likely to be ‘where Australia is heading?’ The dissonance between the future Australians want and where they thought the country is headed has clear policy implications, which we discuss.This extension of scenario planning to include public opinion surveys is novel and this approach can be used to improve thinking, discussion, planning and policy about the future of Australia, as well as potentially other countries and regions.

Assessing Australia’s options in the context of Brexit: engaging with the UK and the European Union

ABSTRACTThe Brexit vote will fundamentally transform the European Union (EU) and will change how the UK relates to Europe and the rest of the world. What are the implications for Australia at this critical juncture? The UK has been a major player in the Australia–EU relationship, and Australia will now need to recalibrate its approach to both the UK and the EU across a range of policy areas. This article examines the future of Australia–UK and Australia–EU relations in the wake of Brexit, and assesses Australia’s options going forward. The authors advance three considerations. Firstly, Australia’s national interests are best served by adopting a pragmatic rather than nostalgic approach towards future relations with the UK and the EU. Secondly, Australia should avoid pursuing one relationship at the expense of the other and creating a zero-sum dynamic. Finally, Australia’s future strategy must consider broader global developments, such as events within its own region and the US presidency.

A national strategy for a low-carbon economy: The contribution of regional development planning

AbstractPlanning for a low-carbon future in Australia will need to address simultaneously three aspects of sustainable development: centralisation/regional development, mobility and communication. After reviewing existing roadmaps for low-carbon growth by 2050, the article identifies the importance for Australia of an integrated and mutually reinforcing set of measures, based on a bold approach to urban and regional planning. Taking account of national geography, the approach is based on the decentralisation of energy production, use and storage, and on new uses of communication, transport and the location of food, water and mineral resources. Revitalised regional centres could be connected, through new energy and transport solutions, by a national transport arc and electrified highways. The use of infrastructure funding to support low-carbon regional development would avoid the ‘tragedy of the commons’, transcending incremental, cumulative approaches based on compensation and incentives for household, business and sectoral abatement efforts. It would generate long-term environmentally sustainable development.

The Future of Asian Regionalism: Not What It Used to Be?

The largely unexpected election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has overturned many assumptions and expectations about the future of Australia's regional relationships. Even before Trump's election, however, the history of regional evolution in East Asia presented a number of striking paradoxes and raised important questions about the forces that encourage or obstruct integration and cooperation at the regional level. For a region that has frequently been associated with comparatively limited cross-border political institutionalization and development, East Asia has recently been the centre of a large number of initiatives and proposals that are intended to give expression to particular visions of the region. We argue that the outcome of such regional processes is profoundly influenced by both geo-economic and geopolitical forces. We illustrate this claim by looking at the history of institutional development in the ‘Asia-Pacific’, before considering the attempt to create a new ‘Indo-Pacific region’, which, we suggest, has more to do with contemporary geopolitical concerns rather than any underlying ‘natural’ coherence. The Australian policy-making community needs to think carefully about the implications of the Trump presidency for such initiatives.

Re-imagining the future for desert Australia: designing an integrated pathway for enhancing liveability

The desert regions of the world comprise about 25% of the world's land surface and are home to 500 million people, yet are often portrayed as extreme places with resident communities marginalised from mainstream development. Australia has a relatively vast desert region, covering about 70% of the continent and home to about 200,000 people. As in most desert regions around the world, perceptions of hardship and isolation are enduring images with communities seen to be stoic yet in need of subsidies from the 'mainstream' economy. The multi-dimensional nature of the debate about the future of Australia's desert region often leaves policy makers with little overarching synthesis to guide public policy. This article draws together research on climate change, energy, housing and transport to provide a transdisciplinary analysis of how the desert region could become a highly liveable and prosperous area for existing and new residents.

Re-imagining the future for desert Australia: designing an integrated pathway for enhancing liveability

The desert regions of the world comprise about 25% of the world's land surface and are home to 500 million people, yet are often portrayed as extreme places with resident communities marginalised from mainstream development. Australia has a relatively vast desert region, covering about 70% of the continent and home to about 200,000 people. As in most desert regions around the world, perceptions of hardship and isolation are enduring images with communities seen to be stoic yet in need of subsidies from the 'mainstream' economy. The multi-dimensional nature of the debate about the future of Australia's desert region often leaves policy makers with little overarching synthesis to guide public policy. This article draws together research on climate change, energy, housing and transport to provide a transdisciplinary analysis of how the desert region could become a highly liveable and prosperous area for existing and new residents.

The future of Australia’s Indigenous Population, 2011–61

Existing projections of Australia’s Indigenous Population suffer from a number of limitations: problematic input data, unsatisfactory projection model design, and poor forecast performance. The aim of this study was to create a new model for projecting that population that better represents the demographic processes at work, and that makes use of a newly available data source on identification change. A new projection model is presented that explicitly incorporates ethnic-identification change, and mixed (Indigenous/Non-Indigenous) partnering and childbearing. It is a composite static–dynamic model which takes a multi-state form where data allow. The model was used to produce projections for the 2011–61 period. Rapid growth of the Indigenous Population is expected, with population momentum, identification change, and mixed partnering and childbearing shown to contribute more to growth than above-replacement fertility and increasing life expectancy. The future growth of Australia’s Indigenous Population is thus intimately connected to its interaction with the Non-Indigenous Population.