Future Extreme Weather Research Articles

Comorbidities, Tobacco Exposure, and Geography: Added Risk Factors of Heat and Cold Wave Related Mortality among United States Veterans with COPD.

Understanding the health risks associated with extreme weather events is needed to inform policies to protect vulnerable populations. To address this need, we estimated heat and cold wave related mortality risks in a cohort of veteran patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and explored disparities among strata of comorbidities, tobacco exposure, and urbanicity. We designed a time stratified case-crossover study among deceased patients with COPD between 2016 to 2021 in the Veterans Health Administration system. Distributed lag models with conditional logistic regression estimated incidence rate ratios (IRR) of heat and cold wave associated mortality risk from lag days 0 to 3 for heatwaves and 0 to 7 for cold waves. Attributable risks (AR) per 100,000 patients were also calculated. Of the 377,545 deceased patients with COPD, the largest heatwave related mortality risk was in patients with COPD and asthma, AR: 14,016 (95% CI: -326, 30,706) across lag days 0 to 3. The largest cold wave related mortality burden was in patients with COPD with no other reported comorbidities, AR: 1,704 (95% CI: 759, 2,686) across lag days 0 to 7. Patients residing in urban settings had the greatest heatwave, AR: 1,062 (95% CI: (576, 1,559), and cold wave AR: 1,261 (95% CI: 440, 2,105) related mortality risk (across lag days 0 to 1 and 0 to 7 respectively). There were no differences in mortality risk by tobacco exposure. Our findings show individuals with COPD are susceptible to heat and cold waves. This information can inform clinical practice and public health policy about the mortality risk vulnerable populations experience with respect to extreme weather conditions. Furthermore, our results may be used in the development and refinement of future extreme weather warning systems designed for public health purposes.

Persistent Summer North Atlantic Jet Variability: Dynamical Feedbacks and Model‐Observation Discrepancies

AbstractPersistent fluctuations in the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic (NATL) jet stream are closely linked to extreme weather anomalies, particularly over Europe. Accurately representing jet stream persistence in climate models is essential for enhancing the reliability of future regional extreme weather projections. This study investigates the summer persistence of the NATL jet stream latitudinal fluctuations and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) using data from CMIP6 models and ERA5 reanalysis. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 models generally overestimate persistence compared to ERA5 during the historical period. Utilizing the relative vorticity tendency equation, we assess the strength of the eddy‐mean flow feedback and identify a positive relationship between persistence and feedback strength across models. We also found that a large fraction of the intermodel spread in precipitation persistence is associated with differences in the persistence of jet fluctuations.

Flammable futures—storylines of climatic impacts on wildfire events and palm oil plantations in Indonesia

Abstract Wildfire events are driven by complex interactions of climate and anthropogenic interventions. Predictions of future wildfire events, their extremity, and their impact on the environment and economy must consider the interactions between these drivers. Economic policy and land use decisions influence the susceptibility of an area to climate extremes, the probability of burning, and future decision making. To better understand how climate-driven drought events and adaptation efforts affect burned area, agricultural production losses, and land use decisions, we developed a storyline approach centered on Indonesia’s 2015 fire events, which saw significant (>5%) production losses of palm oil. We explored analogous events under three warming conditions and two storylines (multi-model ensemble mean climate change and high impact). We employed a model chain consisting of CMIP6 climate modeling to quantify climate change impacts, a wildfire climate impacts and adaptation model (FLAM) to predict burned areas, and the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) to predict resultant production losses and socio-economic consequences in the oil palm sector in Indonesia and, by extension, the EU. FLAM is a mechanistic fire model used to reproduce and project wildfires based on various criteria and input variables; GLOBIOM is a global economic land use model, which assesses land use competition and provides economic impacts based on scenario data. We found that total burned area and production loss can increase by up to 25% and lead to local price increases up to 70%, with only minor differences beyond 2.5 degrees of warming. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interactions of future warming, drought conditions, and extreme weather events when predicting their impacts on oil palm losses and burned area. This study sets the stage for further exploration on the impacts of land management policies on local and international environments and economies in the context of global warming.

Transcriptome analysis and characteristics of drought resistance related genes in four varieties of foxtail millet [Setaria italica]

Foxtail millet [Setaria italica] plays a crucial role as a multigrain crop in agricultural production. However, due to future extreme weather conditions, drought remains the main abiotic stress that limits foxtail millet yield, it is highly significant to screen for drought-tolerant varieties throughout the entire growth period and identify the regulatory genes associated with drought resistance in foxtail millet breeding. We identified 217 foxtail millet seed resources for drought resistance during the maturity stage in the field, and subsequently categorized them into different levels of drought resistance. Two cultivars with extremely strong drought resistance during the maturity stage in the field, JKH4 (Chi 5422) and JKH6 (Chigu 26), as well as two cultivars with extremely weak drought resistance during the maturity stage in the field, JRK3 (17M1309) and JRK6 (Canggu 9), were selected for physiological comparison and transcriptome sequencing before and after drought treatment. Transcriptome analysis at the seedling stage revealed that JRK3 and JRK6 cultivar primarily regulated phenylpropanoid biosynthesis, MAPK signaling pathogen-plant, and plant hormone signal transduction pathway in response to drought stress. On the other hand, the fatty acid elongation pathway of JKH4 and JKH6 variety was found to be more significant. Furthermore, 22 drought resistance related genes were screened through transcriptome analysis of four foxtail millet varieties. These findings could offer valuable theoretical guidance for breeding foxtail millet with enhanced drought resistance and potentially facilitate the development of genetically engineered drought-resistant foxtail millet varieties.

Research on the Development of the Insurance Industry under Extreme Weather based on a Multi-Objective Optimization Model

In recent years, the global climate has continuously deteriorated, with extreme weather events occurring frequently, which has exerted a huge and even devastating impact on the insurance industry. To address the location planning challenges faced by the insurance industry globally in the context of extreme weather, this papaer initially innovatively employs an ordered induction weighted operator to combine three forecasting models: ARIMA, SVR, and LSTM, thus developing an IASL model to forecast future extreme weather events. Subsequently, by integrating the interests of both insurance companies and property owners, a multi-objective optimization model is established, which is then transformed into a single-objective optimization model using the Method of Distance Functions. Lastly, the model is solved using an improved Firefly Algorithm. This holistic approach is anticipated to offer more effective support for insurance industry planning and risk management in addressing the challenges posed by extreme weather.

Response of rice's hydraulic transport and photosynthetic capacity to drought-flood abrupt alternation

Knowledge of the potential interactive effects of drought and flooding on the maximum carboxylation rate at 25°C (Vmax25) and maximum hydraulic conductance (Kmax) is essential for the precise modeling of crop growth, water-carbon cycling, and crop yield formation. However, the lack of data on drought–flood abrupt alternation (DF) experiments and appropriate models to calibrate parameters without the need to specify photosynthetic and hydraulic transport capacity a priori make it difficult to further our understanding of the potential interaction effects on Vmax25 and Kmax. Hence, this study aimed to investigate the potential effects of interactions between the preceding drought and the subsequent flooding on Vmax25 and Kmax. We propose a nested optimization model for calibrating photosynthetic and hydraulic conductance capacity while simultaneously modeling carbon assimilation rate and stomatal conductance. A two-year DF experiment for rice from 2017 to 2018 was conducted to validate the new framework at the Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower of Anhui Province, Bengbu, China. The results show that reasonable Kmax and Vmax25 from gas exchange data can be extracted with the proposed nested model framework. We find two distinct interactions between the prior drought and the subsequent flooding on Vmax25 and Kmax: (1) the antagonistic effect of the preceding mild drought on the subsequent-flood-induced reduction of hydraulic transport and photosynthetic capacity, and (2) the synergistic effect of the subsequent flooding on the preceding drought-induced reduction in hydraulic transport and photosynthetic capacity. Revealing the interaction of drought and flooding on Kmax and Vmax25 of rice under DF events helps to understand rice’s response to compound water stress on multiple timescales and the stomatal and non-stomatal co-limitations, and these findings can be used as valuable guidelines for accurately predicting the impact of future extreme weather events on agricultural production.

Marine heatwaves alter competition between the cultured macroalga Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis and the harmful bloom alga Skeletonema costatum

Seaweed cultivation can inhibit the occurrence of red tides. However, how seaweed aquaculture interactions with harmful algal blooms will be affected by the increasing occurrence and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) is unknown. In this study, we run both monoculture and coculture systems to investigate the effects of a simulated heatwave on the competition of the economically important macroalga Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis against the harmful bloom diatom Skeletonema costatum. Coculture with G. lemaneiformis led to a growth decrease in S. costatum. Growth and photosynthetic activity (Fv/Fm) of G. lemaneiformis was greatly reduced by the heatwave treatment, and did not recover even after one week. Growth and photosynthetic activity of S. costatum was also reduced by the heatwave in coculture, but returned to normal during the recovery period. S. costatum also responded to the stressful environment by forming aggregates. Metabolomic analysis suggests that the negative effects on S. costatum were related to an allelochemical release from G. lemaneiformis. These findings show that MHWs may enhance the competitive advantages of S. costatum against G. lemaneiformis, leading to more severe harmful algal blooms in future extreme weather scenarios.

Resiliency Against Flooding in Pavement Geotechnics: Practice Review of State Transportation Agencies

Extreme weather events driven by climate change pose significant threats to our transportation infrastructure, particularly road pavements, in the United States. This paper proposes a guiding framework for designing resilient pavements. The framework was established after comprehensive reviews of the state of practice from pavement design manuals and construction-, implementation-, and practice documents publicly available on websites of state departments of transportation (DOTs) across the country. The objective of this study was to evaluate the infrastructure flood readiness and awareness of transportation agencies based on the state DOT website surveys. Qualitative analyses of transportation agency engineering and construction manuals revealed a varying degree of consideration among the different states for resiliency in transportation infrastructure design policies. Web scraping of state DOT websites highlighted the awareness levels of resiliency and sustainability issues concerning pavements. The importance of constructing permeable pavement base layers to alleviate flood-induced damage was investigated for assessing moisture infiltration effects on pavement performance and how to incorporate these improvements into mechanistic-empirical pavement design concepts. The findings underscored the need to incorporate climate change stressors and predictive climate data modeling in pavement design to enhance infrastructure resilience. Through study findings and considering implementation of the guidelines proposed in this paper, transportation engineers and state agencies are anticipated to be able to better prepare for future extreme weather challenges and safeguard the nation’s transportation assets.

Fact-finding surveys on role of flood fighting in present-day Japan and future prospects: case studies of Yodo River and Yamato River

AbstractFlood mitigation efforts (flood fighting), including raising awareness among local residents, have been crucial in Japan to reduce damage during flood events. In this study, interviews were conducted with three flood fighting management bodies on the Yodo and Yamato Rivers, which still have strong flood fighting corps, and field investigations were performed focusing on the actual operation of flood fighting warehouses, which serve as infrastructure bases for flood fighting. Targets included the flood fighting affairs associations on the left and right banks for the Yodo River and that on the right bank for the Yamato River. The survey results showed that with the progress of flood control measures and river improvement, opportunities to conduct actual flood fighting work during floods decreased in all cases in recent years, but flood fighting techniques and knowledge were passed on through exercises and drills. In addition, the flood fighting warehouses were well managed and maintained their functions as material and equipment storage places and as waiting and meeting places for flood fighting corps members. Considering the intensification of external flood forces due to future extreme weather changes, it was deemed that the role of the flood fighting corps is expected to increase in importance, and it was judged that preparations were being made to respond to this trend. On the other hand, there were some challenges in terms of securing a sufficient number of members due to the shortage resulting from the aging of the corps members and maintaining warehouses from a budgetary standpoint.

DeltaDTM: A global coastal digital terrain model

Coastal elevation data are essential for a wide variety of applications, such as coastal management, flood modelling, and adaptation planning. Low-lying coastal areas (found below 10 m +Mean Sea Level (MSL)) are at risk of future extreme water levels, subsidence and changing extreme weather patterns. However, current freely available elevation datasets are not sufficiently accurate to model these risks. We present DeltaDTM, a global coastal Digital Terrain Model (DTM) available in the public domain, with a horizontal spatial resolution of 1 arcsecond (∼30 m) and a vertical mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.45 m overall. DeltaDTM corrects CopernicusDEM with spaceborne lidar from the ICESat-2 and GEDI missions. Specifically, we correct the elevation bias in CopernicusDEM, apply filters to remove non-terrain cells, and fill the gaps using interpolation. Notably, our classification approach produces more accurate results than regression methods recently used by others to correct DEMs, that achieve an overall MAE of 0.72 m at best. We conclude that DeltaDTM will be a valuable resource for coastal flood impact modelling and other applications.

Enhancing the smart readiness of buildings: Combining Collective intelligence and Reinforcement learning in Building Energy Management

This research introduces a novel Energy Management approach, named CIRLEM, aiming to enhance the smartness of buildings by focusing on technical systems operations, environmental variations, and occupants' needs. Deployed in a simulated environment using Building Performance Simulation and Python integration, the study evaluates CIRLEM's performance under future extreme cold weather scenarios, employing a set of representative climate data. The pilot case, two building blocks in Sweden, undergoes assessment for energy demand, peak power, and thermal comfort. Results indicate that CIRLEM, particularly when driven by demand and price signals, effectively reduces energy demand and costs, demonstrating strong adaptability to extreme weather conditions. Thermal comfort is maintained regarding the temperature limits and variations. Ongoing developments attempt to refine the reward function and signal generation for thermal comfort enhancement and real-world implementation.

Heat-related illness in Singapore: Descriptive analysis of a tertiary care center from 2008 to 2020

Background This study aimed to describe the clinical characteristics and epidemiology of heat-related illnesses presented at a tertiary hospital in Singapore. Method This retrospective observational study utilized electronic health records from the emergency department (ED) of Singapore General Hospital. Patients primarily diagnosed with heat-related illnesses from 2008 to 2020, were analyzed. The annual number of cases and the temporal trend of heat-related illnesses were described, along with the characteristics of patients. Results Among the 1,833,908 patients registered at the ED, 426 patients had diagnoses of heat-related illnesses. The median age (interquartile range [IQR]) was 32 (22, 43) years, with 303 (71%) being male and 201 (47%) not being Singapore citizens. The annual number of cases ranged from a minimum of 21 in 2019 to a maximum of 49 cases in 2015, except for four cases in 2020. Heat-related illnesses occurred most commonly on Sundays (233, 55%) and in December (97, 23%). A significant number of cases in December coincided with the day of an annually organized marathon (91, 21%). Approximately half of the total cases required hospitalization, with 183 (43%) admitted to the general ward and 31 (7%) admitted to the intensive care unit. The 30-day mortality was 2 (0.5%). Conclusion This descriptive study indicated the unique characteristics of heat-related illness in a tertiary care hospital in Singapore. These local contexts may be valuable to consider preventative measures for heat-related illness, in preparation for future extreme weather events related to climate change.

Resilience of transportation infrastructure networks to road failures.

Anthropogenic climate change drives extreme weather events, leading to significant consequences for both society and the environment. This includes damage to road infrastructure, causing disruptions in transportation, obstructing access to emergency services, and hindering humanitarian organizations after natural disasters. In this study, we develop a novel method for analyzing the impacts of natural hazards on transportation networks rooted in the gravity model of travel, offering a fresh perspective to assess the repercussions of natural hazards on transportation network stability. Applying this approach to the Ahr valley flood of 2021, we discovered that the destruction of bridges and roads caused major bottlenecks, affecting areas considerably distant from the flood's epicenter. Furthermore, the flood-induced damage to the infrastructure also increased the response time of emergency vehicles, severely impeding the accessibility of emergency services. Our findings highlight the need for targeted road repair and reinforcement, with a focus on maintaining traffic flow for emergency responses. This research provides a new perspective that can aid in prioritizing transportation network resilience measures to reduce the economic and social costs of future extreme weather events.

Resilience Design: Myths of Participation and Stewardship

Design proposals that aim to increase resilience to future extreme weather events increasingly center on equity concerns. The question of the implementation and ongoing maintenance of resilient landscapes, however, receives scant attention in planning literature despite the abundance of stewardship references in resilience proposals. Stewardship, as both concept and act, implicates equity because it is a form of adaptation labor that is invisible and unpaid. Here, I discuss California's Resilient by Design project to show that when the labor involved in stewardship projects is not acknowledged, claims for an equitable and resilient future espoused by planning proposals are diminished.

Revamping Sustainability Efforts Post-Disaster by Adopting Circular Economy Resilience Practices

Post-disaster reconnaissance is vital for assessing the impact of a natural disaster on the built environment and informing improvements in design, construction, risk mitigation, and our understanding of extreme events. The data obtained from reconnaissance can also be utilized to improve disaster recovery planning by maximizing resource efficiency, minimizing waste, and promoting resilience in future disasters. This paper aims to investigate existing reconnaissance reports and datasets to identify the factors that impact the reusability of buildings post-disaster and to recommend strategies that align with circular economy goals. The study adopted a three-step research methodology to attain the proposed goals: (1) thematic analysis was used to evaluate types of damages reported in the reconnaissance reports; (2) a supervised machine-learning algorithm was employed to analyze reconnaissance datasets; and (3) a concept map was developed based on interviews of 109 stakeholders in disaster-prone communities to recommend strategies to adopt circular economy practices post-disaster. The study results highlight the recurring risks of damage to different parts of the building and how circular economy resilience practices like deconstruction can minimize waste and maximize resource efficiency during post-disaster recovery. The findings of the study promote a more regenerative economy to build resilience to the challenges of future extreme weather events.

Association between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality in the subtropics.

Hazardous thermal conditions resulting from climate change may play a role in cardiovascular disease development. We chose the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as the exposure metric to evaluate the relationship between thermal conditions and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen, China. We applied quasi-Poisson regression non-linear distributed lag models to evaluate the exposure-response associations. The findings suggest that cardiovascular mortality risks were significantly increased under heat and cold stress, and the adverse effects of cold stress were stronger than heat stress. Referencing the 50th percentile of UTCI (25.4°C), the cumulative risk of cardiovascular mortality was 75% (RRlag0-21 =1.75, 95%CI: 1.32, 2.32) higher in the 1st percentile (3.5°C), and 40% (RRlag0-21=1.40, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.80) higher in the 99th percentile (34.1°C). We observed that individuals older than 65 yearswere more vulnerable to both cold and heat stress, and females were identified as more susceptible to heat stress than males. Moreover, increased mortality risks of hypertensive disease and cerebrovascular disease were observed under cold stress, while heat stress was related to higher risks of mortality for hypertensive disease and ischemic heart disease. We also observed a stronger relationship between cold stress and ischemic heart disease mortality during the cold season, as well as a significant impact of heat stress on cerebrovascular disease mortality in the warm season when compared to the analysis of the entire year. These results confirm the significant relationship between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality, with age and sex as potential effect modifiers of this association. Providing affordable air conditioning equipment, increasing the amount of vegetation, and establishing comprehensive early warning systems that take human thermoregulation into account could all help to safeguard the well-being of the public, particularly vulnerable populations, in the event of future extreme weather.

Correlational Study of Escherichia coli Concentrations and Coastal Water Temperatures in Metro Vancouver’s Routine Beach Water Quality Reports from 2016-2022

The impact of climate change and the resulting more frequent heatwaves severely affect public health, as seen in the record-breaking 2021 Western North America heat wave. The elevated coastal water temperatures caused by rising ambient temperatures are expected to lead to increased recreational water use, which could contribute to higher levels of Recreational Water Illnesses (RWIs) due to the growth of specific pathogens. This study investigates any potential correlation between Escherichia Coli levels and coastal water temperatures in Routine Beach Water Quality reports from Metro Vancouver from 2016-2022. Furthermore, it aims to create a standardized Bathing Water Quality Index (BWQI) to reduce public exposure to pathogens and prepare for future extreme weather events.

Wind loads on a low-rise gable roof with and without solar panels and comparison to design standards

ABSTRACT This paper aims to understand how photovoltaic (PV) panels impact wind loads on low-rise buildings. The hypothesis posits that solar panels on a roof reduce wind-induced forces on components and cladding. To test this hypothesis, we experimentally investigated a 1:7.5 scale model in an open-jet wind facility, considering cases of bare roof and roofs with PV panels in three different configurations. The findings indicate that PV panels offer varying benefits based on the wind direction angle, generally reducing total wind forces on the primary structure. The addition of solar panels yields wind load reductions of 45–63%, depending on the configuration and details of the solar panel system, implying that buildings may not require additional reinforcement for PV panels. The findings have significant implications for enhancing the design and installation of residential solar energy systems, promising a more sustainable and secure future amid climate change and extreme weather challenges.

Performance of regional water purification plants during extreme weather events: three case studies from New South Wales, Australia.

Climate change is altering weather patterns, which affects water supply systems globally. More frequent extreme weather events like floods, droughts, and heatwaves are impacting the availability of raw water sources that supply cities. These events can lead to less water, higher demand, and potential infrastructure damage. Water agencies and utilities must develop resilient and adaptable systems to withstand shocks and stresses. Case studies demonstrating the impact of extreme weather on water quality are important for developing resilient water supply systems. This paper documents the challenges faced by regional New South Wales (NSW) in managing water quality and supply during extreme weather events. Effective treatment processes, such as ozone treatment and adsorption, are used to maintain drinking water standards during extreme weather. Water-efficient alternatives are provided, and critical water networks are inspected to identify leaks and reduce system demand. Local government areas must collaborate and share resources to ensure that towns can cope with future extreme weather events. Systematic investigation is needed to understand system capacity and identify surplus resources to be shared when demand cannot be met. Pooling resources could benefit regional towns experiencing both floods and droughts. With expected population growth in the area, regional NSW councils will require a significant increase in water filtration infrastructure to handle increased system loading. Continuous research, regular strategy reviews, and innovative approaches are essential to ensure a secure and reliable water supply during future extreme weather events.

Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US

Abstract. Intensified extreme precipitation and corresponding floods are the most relevant consequences of climate change over the northeastern US (NEUS). To evaluate the impacts of climate change or certain climate perturbations on future extreme weather events which are dynamically similar to historic analogs, the pseudo-global warming (PGW) method has been frequently employed; however, this method lacks precise definition and guidelines, thus limiting its application. More specifically, three key questions related to the application of the PGW method remain unanswered: at what spatial scale should climate perturbations be applied? Among the different meteorological variables available, which ones should be perturbed? And will PGW projections vary significantly when different perturbations are applied? To address these questions, we examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments with varied perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables. The results show that the projections of precipitation and other essential variables at the regional mean scale are consistent across the PGW simulations, with a relative difference of much less than 10 %; however, different perturbation modifications can cause significant displacements of the storm events being simulated. Several previously assumed advantages of modifying only the temperature at regional mean scale, such as the preservation of geostrophic balance, do not appear to hold. Also, for these experiments, we find the regional mean perturbation produces a positive precipitation bias because it ignores the land–ocean warming contrast, which is a robust regional response to global warming. Overall, PGW experiments with perturbations from temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the grid point scale are both recommended, depending on the research questions. The first approach can isolate the spatially dependent thermodynamic impact, and the latter incorporates both the thermodynamic and dynamic impacts.