Future Events Research Articles

Using serosurveys to optimize surveillance for zoonotic pathogens.

Zoonotic pathogens pose a significant risk to human health, with spillover into human populations contributing to chronic disease, sporadic epidemics, and occasional pandemics. Despite the widely recognized burden of zoonotic spillover, our ability to identify which animal populations serve as primary reservoirs for these pathogens remains incomplete. This challenge is compounded when prevalence reaches detectable levels only at specific times of year. In these cases, statistical models designed to predict the timing of peak prevalence could guide field sampling for active infections. Thus, we develop a general model that leverages routinely collected serosurveillance data to optimize sampling for elusive pathogens by predicting time windows of peak prevalence. Using simulated data sets, we show that our methodology reliably identifies times when pathogen prevalence is expected to peak. Then, we demonstrate an implementation of our method using publicly available data from two putative Ebolavirus reservoirs, straw-colored fruit bats (Eidolon helvum) and hammer-headed bats (Hypsignathus monstrosus). We envision our method being used to guide the planning of field sampling to maximize the probability of detecting active infections, and in cases when longitudinal data is available, our method can also yield predictions for the times of year that are most likely to produce future spillover events. The generality and simplicity of our methodology make it broadly applicable to a wide range of putative reservoir species where seasonal patterns of birth lead to predictable, but potentially short-lived, pulses of pathogen prevalence.

The brain hierarchically represents the past and future during multistep anticipation.

Memory for temporal structure enables both planning of future events and retrospection of past events. We investigated how the brain flexibly represents extended temporal sequences into the past and future during anticipation. Participants learned sequences of environments in immersive virtual reality. Pairs of sequences had the same environments in a different order, enabling context-specific learning. During fMRI, participants anticipated upcoming environments multiple steps into the future in a given sequence. Temporal structure was represented in the hippocampus and across higher-order visual regions (1) bidirectionally, with graded representations into the past and future and (2) hierarchically, with further events into the past and future represented in successively more anterior brain regions. In hippocampus, these bidirectional representations were context-specific, and suppression of far-away environments predicted response time costs in anticipation. Together, this work sheds light on how we flexibly represent sequential structure to enable planning over multiple timescales.

Endel Tulving (1927-2023).

This article presents an obituary for Endel Tulving. Tulving's educational and professional careers are summarized. His work in the field of human memory is detailed. It is noted that Tulving's look at the field of verbal learning in the late 1950s persuaded him that the dominant associative tradition missed many important aspects of human memory. His research found that at the time of retrieval, memory for the original event may be successfully reinstated only by contextual cues that interact in a complementary fashion with the specifically encoded memory trace, a process that Tulving referred to as "synergistic ecphory". He is also known for his work on memory systems. In his book, Elements of Episodic Memory published in 1983, Tulving proposed that memory for experienced events, episodic memory, should be distinguished from general knowledge of the world, semantic memory, and from procedural memory, the learned ability to perform such skilled procedures as riding a bicycle or playing a musical instrument. He also proposed an evolutionary framework for these different but related systems, suggesting that simple animals show only procedural memory, more complex animals are consciously aware of their knowledge of the world, but only humans possess episodic memory-the ability to use "mental time travel" to consciously recreate past experiences and to imagine possible future events. Although known initially for his purely cognitive behavioral research, during the 1980s and 1990s, Tulving increasingly incorporated neuropsychological and neuroimaging approaches into his work. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Towards Transformative Event Experiences: State of the Art and Future Research

This research note reviews and discusses the state-of-the-art research on event experiences. Through an in-depth literature review, the study bridges events research and experience design to zoom in on transformative event experiences as an emerging area of interest in events research and practice. A shift from managing events to designing events, as well as a change in events to human transformation is highlighted. Finally, an agenda for future research is presented that outlines five distinct avenues for deepening our understanding of the mechanisms of transformative event experiences. The article has important implications for research and practice for designing, facilitating, and guiding future event experiences, particularly those with a transformative potential.

Metagenomics for Pathogen Detection During a Mass Mortality Event in Songbirds.

Mass mortality events in wildlife can be indications of an emerging infectious disease. During the spring and summer of 2021, hundreds of dead passerines were reported across the eastern US. Birds exhibited a range of clinical signs including swollen conjunctiva, ocular discharge, ataxia, and nystagmus. As part of the diagnostic investigation, high-throughput metagenomic next-generation sequencing was performed across three molecular laboratories on samples from affected birds. Many potentially pathogenic microbes were detected, with bacteria forming the largest proportion; however, no singular agent was consistently identified, with many of the detected microbes also found in unaffected (control) birds and thus considered to be subclinical infections. Congruent results across laboratories have helped drive further investigation into alternative causes, including environmental contaminants and nutritional deficiencies. This work highlights the utility of metagenomic approaches in investigations of emerging diseases and provides a framework for future wildlife mortality events.

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. This paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land

Extreme climate events are hotspots in global change. However, research on the changes in future compound events and population exposure is still limited. Leveraging from the data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of global compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in the future. We also predict the risk of population exposure and quantify the contribution of different factors to exposure. The results show that: (1) In the next 80 years, compound hot-dry event (CHDE) will increase at a rate of 0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 days per decade under the three scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively. By comparison, compound hot-humidity event (CHHE) shows a downward trend under the three scenarios, with a downward rate of 0.01, 0.02, and 0.11 days per decade, respectively. (2) Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, CHDE and CHHE have two or more mutation points. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, CHDE shows a significant upward and CHHE shows a significant downward trend in the middle and late 21st century. These two indices exhibit periodic changes in all three scenarios (3) South Asia, West Asia, and Northeast Africa have higher CHDE values, while regions with higher CHHE values are located in North Asia and Greenland. (4) Climate change is a major factor affecting population exposure. For CHDE, climate, population, and their synergistic effects contribute about 75%, 20%, and 5% to the exposure, respectively. For CHHE, the contributions of these three factors are 85%, 10%, and 5% respectively. These findings provide scientific guidance for the rational formulation of population policies, the effective avoidance of climate disaster risks and the protection of human health.

Enhancing law enforcement training: A gamified approach to detecting terrorism financing

Tools for fighting cyber-criminal activities using new technologies are promoted and deployed every day. However, too often, they are unnecessarily complex and hard to use, requiring deep domain and technical knowledge. These characteristics often limit the engagement of law enforcement and end-users in these technologies, which despite their potential, remain misunderstood. For this reason, in this study, we describe our experience in combining learning and training methods and the potential benefits of gamification to enhance technology transfer and increase adult learning. In this case, participants are experienced practitioners in professions/industries that are exposed to terrorism financing (such as law enforcement officers, financial investigation officers, private investigators). We define training activities on different levels for increasing the exchange of information about new trends and criminal modus operandi among and within law enforcement agencies, intensifying cross-border cooperation and supporting efforts to combat and prevent terrorism-funding activities. A game (hackathon) is designed to address realistic challenges related to the darknet, crypto-assets, new payment systems and dark web marketplaces that could be used for terrorist activities. The entire methodology was evaluated using quizzes, contest results and engagement metrics. In particular, training events show that ∼60% of participants complete the 11-week training course, whereas the hackathon results, gathered in two pilot studies (Madrid and The Hague), show increasing expertise among participants (progression in the points achieved on average). At the same time, more than 70% of participants positively evaluate use of the gamification approach, and more than 85% consider the implemented use cases suitable for their investigations. These outcomes are further discussed to detect the introduced approach's benefits and limitations and improve future events.

COVID-19 and the Heart: Lessons Learned and Future Research Directions

It has become evident that acute COVID-19 infection can lead to cardiovascular complications. While the exact mechanisms by which COVID-19 affects the cardiovascular system have yet to be fully elucidated, several mechanisms have been proposed, including direct myocardial effects on the virus and systemic inflammation as an indirect result. The cardiovascular complications of COVID-19 have been characterized and described using noninvasive cardiac imaging. The impact of COVID-19 on the cardiovascular system extends beyond the acute phase of the infection and well beyond recovery or the convalescent period. However, the underlying mechanisms of post-viral long-COVID symptoms have yet to be elucidated. It is evident that COVID-19 has become endemic and is here to stay. Future studies are needed (1) to understand the long-term effects of the cardiovascular complications of COVID-19, future cardiovascular events and the impact of mutating variants on cardiovascular complications through data collection and analysis, (2) to identify the most important diagnostic criteria for prognosis of COVID-19 and to understand the disease mechanism through biomarkers and advanced cardiac imaging, including echocardiography and (3) to develop novel strategies to manage and treat these cardiovascular complications using the knowledge gained.

Nurses' Experience After First Wave of COVID-19: Implications for a Trauma-Informed Workforce.

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted nurses worldwide, increasing their risk of burnout and compassion fatigue. Although the literature on nurse deployment has been limited, this study describes nurses' experience and assesses their professional quality of life after the first phase of the pandemic and redeployment efforts. In 2020, nurses returning from their deployment to COVID-19 treatment units were invited to complete the Professional Quality of Life Survey and gather for debrief sessions, referred to as campfires, in which semistructured questions about their experiences were administered among clinical nurses and nurse leaders. Employing a mixed methods design, the authors conducted descriptive statistics for survey responses and inductive thematic analysis to identify emergent themes from open-ended questions. A total of 19 campfires were held with 278 nurse participants. Of the 278 participants, 220 completed surveys. Of these, 194 (88%) represented 30 nurse leaders and 164 staff nurses. The majority of surveyed nurses in both groups reported compassion satisfaction despite reporting moderate levels of burnout and secondary traumatic stress. Qualitative themes from campfires with clinical nurses and nurse leaders revealed similarities, such as concern for safety and lack of choices and transparency, although each group faced unique challenges. Findings related to post deployment and adverse psychological health suggest that a trauma-informed approach (ie, staff autonomy, physical and psychological safety, transparency, offering choices, leveraging voices, and collaboration) by leaders could enhance a culture of wellness, build resilience, and mitigate empathic burnout and also proactively and strategically thinking about preventive measures for future catastrophic events.

Temporal Asymmetry of Pleasant and Unpleasant Feelings Among Chinese Adolescents

Previous studies have shown that anticipation induces more emotions than retrospection, known as temporal emotion asymmetry. However, the majority of previous studies have been confined to Western contexts. Eastern populations tend to emphasize the past more than their Western counterparts and may exhibit distinct forms of temporal emotion asymmetry. Therefore, we conducted an investigation involving Chinese adolescents. Our research encompassed two experiments, investigating Chinese adolescents’ temporal emotion asymmetry from a self-perspective (Experiment 1; N = 124) and an other-perspective (Experiment 2; N = 162). Participants were prompted to retrospect and anticipate events that elicited pleasant or unpleasant feelings. The results revealed that, whether from a self-perspective or an other-perspective, retrospection of past positive events elicited greater pleasure than the anticipation of future positive events. However, concerning adverse events, under a self-perspective, anticipation induced more displeasure than retrospection (Experiment 1); under an other-perspective, retrospection induced more displeasure than anticipation (Experiment 2). Our findings provide some support for the construal level theory, fading affect bias, and mobilization-minimization hypothesis of event cognition. Based on these results, retrospection seems to be a potential means for regulating the emotions of Chinese adolescents.

Mind-wandering contents and characteristics: an exploratory study comparing between work and non-work contexts

ABSTRACT Mind-wandering, where thoughts drift away from the immediate environment or task to self-generated thoughts, is a common human experience. Despite the growing research on its antecedents and consequences, the content and characteristics of mind-wandering across different contexts, such as work-related and non-work-related settings, remain poorly understood. This study, guided by the Context and Content Regulation Hypothesis, explores the nuances of mind-wandering by examining both its content and characteristics, such as deliberateness and temporal orientation. Over five working days, we prompted 131 workers three times daily to report the content and characteristics of their current thoughts. Our findings indicate that mind-wandering occurred less frequently during work but was predominantly populated with work-related content, regardless of the ongoing activity. Furthermore, while most mind-wandering events were future-oriented and spontaneous, those centred on work exhibited a more deliberate and pronounced future bias. Challenging the prevailing notion of mind-wandering as a mere distraction, our findings align with the Context and Content Regulation Hypothesis, emphasizing its strategic role in foreseeing and preparing for future work-related events.

(015) Comparison of Penile Arterial Doppler-Ultrasound and Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography (CCTA) to Improve Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Patients with Erectile Dysfunction

Abstract Introduction Erectile dysfunction (ED) has been shown to be an independent and early marker of future cardiovascular events, providing an important window of opportunity for cardiovascular preventive measures. However, there are several etiologies for ED (arterial, venous, hormonal, neurological, psychological), and earlier studies have not taken etiology into account when assessing cardiovascular risk. Arterial ED etiology share risk factors and pathophysiologic mechanisms with coronary and neurovascular diseases. Therefore, it can be assumed that patients with ED with arterial (atherosclerotic) etiology have a higher risk of future cardiovascular events than the general ED population. Objective To evaluate the predictive value of penile artery Doppler ultrasound (DUS) in cardiovascular risk assessment by comparing it with coronary atheroma screening by Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in patients with erectile dysfunction. Methods Men under 70 years of age, with ED and at least 1 cardiovascular risk factor (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking, metabolic syndrome, obesity) were included. Patients with a primary cardiovascular event were excluded. Every patient had a penile DUS to assess penile arterial disease based on the maximum systolic velocity of the carvernous arteries after stimulation by intracavernous injection (A-Score), and a CCTA to assess coronary atheromatous arterial disease (CAD-RADS score). Results From October 2022 to June 2023, 72 consecutive patients were included. Mean age was 55 +/- 8.6 years. Mean IIEF5 score was 11 +/-5.3. N=34 (30%) were smokers, n=24 (33%) had hypertension, n=27 (37.5%) had diabetes, n=9 (11.1%) had obesity, n=10 (13.9%) had dyslipidemia. On penile artery DUS assessment n=62 (86%) patients had a positive A-Score. On CCTA, CAD-RADS scores were 0 in n=13 (18%) patients, 1 in n=18 (25%), 2 in n=19 (26%), 3 in n=17 (24%), and 4 in n=5 (7%) patients. We then analyzed the predictive value of A-Score as follows: 1. patients with coronary atheromatous plaques on CCTA (CAD-RADS ≥1, n=59), were significantly more likely to have a positive A-Score (n=56, 94.9%) than negative A-Score (n=13, 18%, p<.001, Chi2-test). The positive predictive value of the A-Score indicating penile arterial disease for the presence of coronary plaque, was 90.3%. 2. Patients with significant coronary stenosis (CAD-RADS ≥3, n=22) all patients n=22 (100%), had a positive A-Score and none a negative test (p=.026). The positive predictive value of the A-Score for the presence of significant coronary stenosis on CCTA was 100%. Conclusions The penile artery Doppler ultrasound A-Score has a good predictive value for coronary atheromatous artery disease in patients with erectile dysfunction, and allowed us to identify a sub-population at higher cardiovascular risk. When the A-Score is positive, the presence of coronary plaque is highly probable; when it is negative, the presence of significant coronary stenosis is highly unlikely. Disclosure No.

Peripheral artery disease recognition, diagnosis, and management in general practice in the Republic of Ireland and England: an online survey.

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is common and associated with future cardiovascular events. PAD is underdiagnosed, which limits opportunities to address secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. It is unknown how closely guidelines for detection of PAD are followed in primary care. To survey GPs' attitudes to diagnosis and follow-up of patients with PAD. Online survey of GPs in England and the Republic of Ireland (RoI). GPs' approaches to management of PAD were assessed using likelihood ratings (scales of 0-10) and discrete questions. Findings were summarised as proportions, or median and interquartile ranges (IQR). In total, 111 responses were analysed; 68 (61%) from England and 43 (39%) from the RoI. Considering a hypothetical patient at risk of PAD, likelihood of GPs enquiring about PAD symptoms (leg pains: 3/10 or erectile dysfunction: 2/10) was low. GPs in the RoI compared with GPs in England more often examined the heart (10/10 versus 7/10) or carotid vessels (5/10 versus 1/10). Lower limb pulses were palpated in response to symptoms or signs of PAD. In England 25% of practitioners, and in the RoI 55% of practitioners, reported that they do not measure ankle-brachial index (ABI). Currently, detection of PAD is generally triggered by 'classical' leg claudication symptoms, while known vascular risk factors appear to elicit little consideration. ABI measurement is not performed by many practitioners, suggesting that a proportion of vascular referrals must be based on history and examination findings alone. Opportunities to recognise PAD are missed.

The Prediction Order Effect: People Are More Likely to Choose Improbable Outcomes in Later Predictions

People often need to predict the outcomes of future events. We investigate the influence of order on such forecasts. Six preregistered studies (n = 7,955) show that people are more likely to forecast improbable outcomes (e.g., that an “underdog” will win a game) for predictions they make later versus earlier within a sequence of multiple predictions. This effect generalizes across several contexts and persists when participants are able to revise their predictions as well as when they are incentivized to make correct predictions. We propose that this effect is driven by people’s assumption that improbable outcomes are bound to occur at some point within small sets of independent events (i.e., “belief in the law of small numbers”). Accordingly, we find that the effect is attenuated when the statistical independence of events is made salient to forecasters both through the nature of the predictions themselves (i.e., when the events are from distinct domains) and through directly informing them about statistical independence. These findings have notable practical implications, as policy makers and businesses have the ability to control the order in which people evaluate and predict future events. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01175 .

Opinion: Stratospheric ozone – depletion, recovery and new challenges

Abstract. We summarise current important and well-established open issues related to the depletion of stratospheric ozone and discuss some newly emerging challenges. The ozone layer is recovering from the effects of halogenated source gases due to the continued success of the Montreal Protocol despite recent renewed production of controlled substances and the impact of uncontrolled very short-lived substances. The increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), have large potential to perturb stratospheric ozone in different ways, but their future evolutions, and hence impacts, are uncertain. Ozone depletion through injection of smoke particles has been observed following recent Australian wildfires. Further perturbations to the ozone layer are currently occurring through the unexpected injection of massive amounts of water vapour from the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in 2022. Open research questions emphasise the critical need to maintain, if not expand, the observational network and to address the impending “satellite data gap” in global, height-resolved observations of stratospheric trace gases and aerosols. We will, in effect, be largely blind to the stratospheric effects of similar wildfire and volcanic events in the near future. Complex Earth system models (ESMs) being developed for climate projections have the stratosphere as an important component. However, the huge computational requirement of these models must not result in an oversimplification of the many processes affecting the ozone layer. Regardless, a hierarchy of simpler process models will continue to be important for testing our evolving understanding of the ozone layer and for providing policy-relevant information.

National COVID-19 preparedness and response plans: a global review from the perspective of services for maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health and older people

IntroductionInfectious disease outbreaks have historically led to widespread disruptions in routine essential health services. Disruptions due to COVID-19 responses led to excess deaths, including among women and children. This review...

Testing the spatial geometry of the Universe with TianQin: Prospect of using supermassive black hole binaries

Context. The determination of the spatial geometry of the Universe plays an important role in modern cosmology. Any deviation from the cosmic curvature ΩK = 0 would have a profound impact on the primordial inflation paradigm and fundamental physics. Aims. In this paper, we carry out a systematic study of the prospect of measuring the cosmic curvature with the inspiral signal of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) that could be detected with TianQin. Methods. The study is based on a method that is independent of cosmological models. It extended the application of gravitational wave (GW) standard sirens in cosmology. By comparing the distances from future simulated GW events and simulated H(z) data, we evaluated whether TianQin produced robust constraints on the cosmic curvature parameter Ωk. More specifically, we considered three-year to ten-year observations of supermassive black hole binaries with total masses ranging from 103 M⊙ to 107 M⊙. Results. Our results show that in the future, with the synergy of ten-year high-quality observations, we can tightly constrain the curvature parameter at the level of 1σ Ωk = −0.002 ± 0.061. Moreover, our findings indicate that the total mass of SMBHB does influence the estimation of cosmic curvature, as implied by the analysis performed on different subsamples of gravitational wave data. Conclusions. Therefore, TianQin is expected to provide a more powerful and competitive probe of the spatial geometry of the Universe, compared to future spaced-based detectors such as DECIGO.

Did the COVID-19 pandemic affect levels of burnout, anxiety and depression among doctors and nurses in Bangladesh? A cross-sectional survey study

IntroductionCOVID-19 has caused severe disruption to clinical services in Bangladesh but the extent of this, and the impact on healthcare professionals is unclear. We aimed to assess the perceived levels...

Perceived impact of COVID-19 lockdown on access to healthcare services, food affordability and family income among married patients of a resource-limited primary care setting

Objective: To examine the perceived impact of COVID-19 lockdown on access to healthcare services, food affordability, and family income during the first phase of the pandemic among married people of a resource-limited primary care setting in Kano, Nigeria. Methods: This survey involved 432 married respondents systematically selected from attendees of a primary care clinic in Kano, Nigeria, using a structured questionnaire. Results: Over half (53.5%) of respondents or their family members fell ill during the lockdown; 67.1% felt it difficult to access hospital treatment, while 32.9% sick patients resorted to self-medication. Over half (57.2%) could afford food as they used to, 75.0% reported that food items were costly, while 35.9% received government assistance. Only 29.9% had employment, of which 49.6% received a salary, while 29.5% had their salaries reduced. Educational level was significantly associated with ease of accessing healthcare services (χ2 =8.528, P=0.014). Age (χ2=12.209, P<0.001), family type (χ2 =12.943, P<0.001), home location in Kano state (χ2= 15.397, P<0.001) and family headcount (χ2=3.968, P=0.044) were significantly associated with perceived food affordability. Conclusions: This study demonstrated the negative impact of the lockdown on healthcare access, food affordability, and family income among respondents’ families. This suggests the need for more investments in promoting and scaling up telemedicine services as platforms for accessing healthcare, which could be utilized in similar future events. More studies will be needed to ascertain the complete picture of the implementation of social assistance in the study area to enhance planning and distribution of future government social assistance.