Future Energy Savings Research Articles

A combined support vector regression with a firefly algorithm for prediction of energy consumption in wastewater treatment plants.

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) comprise energy-intensive processes, serving as primary contributors to overall WWTP costs. This research study proposes a novel approach that integrates support vector regression (SVR) with the firefly algorithm (FFA) for the prediction of energy consumption in a WWTP in Chlef City, Algeria. The database comprises a comprehensive set of 1,653 samples, capturing diverse information categories. It includes chemical and physical characteristics, encompassing chemical oxygen demand, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, potential of hydrogen, water temperature, total suspended sediment in water and basin, influent N-NH3 concentration, number of aerators, and operating time. Additionally, the hydraulic and energy-related parameters are represented by the flow entered at the station and the energy consumed by aerators, respectively. Finally, meteorological data, comprising rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, and the aridity index, are part of the dataset required for analysis. In this regard, 15 different models that correspond to 15 different combinations of input parameters are assessed in this study. The results show that the SVR-FFA-15 can render an improvement in the prediction accuracy of energy consumption in WWTPs. This study provides a useful tool for managing the energy consumption of wastewater treatment and makes insightful recommendations for future energy savings.

Development of Municipal Energy Management as Trigger of Future Energy Savings

Directive 2018/844/EU on energy efficiency claims that almost 80% of the final energy consumption in the EU is used within the buildings. The subsequent Directive (EU) 2023/1791 introduced in 2023 expected 68% of the world population to live in urban areas. Both directives enhanced the role of energy management (EM) applied to the city buildings. This paper introduces the development of energy management in Czech municipalities between the years 2009 and 2023. The main goal of this article is to present selected results of the unique national survey focused on the energy management in Czech municipalities conducted in 2023 and compare it with results of national surveys implemented in 2009 and 2018. The main method is the comparing of two surveys conducted among the municipal representatives or energy managers in the past with the new survey conducted in 2023. The results show that EM became a notably more important issue for most Czech municipalities. The number of cities collecting data on energy consumption grew by 288% and the number of city energy managers increased by 57%. On the other hand, the used potential of energy savings triggered by establishing EM was insufficient and only 4% of the respondents claimed high and exactly measured savings because of EM. This article should be applied to the stress power of municipal EM in performing energy efficiency and RES projects and encouraging the government to support municipal energy managers in their complex role.

Factors Militating against Adoption of Solar Water Pump Sets in the Selected Area of Chhattisgarh, India

In the agricultural sector, the highest electricity use goes to irrigation pump sets. Solar pump sets are a renewable source of energy that can replace existing diesel- and electricity-based pump sets. The Sour Sujala Yojna was launched by the Prime Minister to provide solar-powered irrigation pumps to farmers at a subsidized price. 56362 solar water pump sets were installed from 2016 to 2019 in Chhattisgarh state. In the study area, sample farmers were facing two major problems: the solar pump was not working during cloudy days, and second "low farm income". Rank 3 was "small land holdings," and through the solar pump irrigation, less area was covered, ranking 4. There is a maintenance problem that is minor or negligible. To solve the problem, a battery charge system with a solar pump should be added. and the water tank was fixed and stored above 20 meters. A solar pump is a renewable source of energy. So it does not affect nature. It is the best source of irrigation for future energy savings.

How prebound effects compromise the market premium for energy efficiency in German house sales

ABSTRACT Recent studies indicate that houses with higher energy efficiency usually have higher market prices, a ‘market premium for energy efficiency’. But in Germany the usefulness of this premium is confounded by the ‘prebound effect’: the gap between officially certificated energy ratings and actual energy consumption. Attempts have been made to close this gap from two complementary directions: downwards, by obtaining more accurate and less pessimistic technical estimates of idealised energy performance; and upwards, by estimating how much energy occupants realistically need for health and comfort. This study investigates prebound effects alongside an analysis of house prices in Germany, using a large database of house sale advertisements from 2007 to 2021, focusing on pre-1980 homes that were re-sold in 2019–2021. It uses ordinary least-squared multivariate regression to estimate market premiums for energy efficiency and sets these alongside estimates of prebound (and rebound) effects. It finds that prebound effects can lead purchasers to overestimate future energy savings and therefore pay more for properties than their actual worth. It also offers simple models to help purchasers interpret energy ratings more critically and estimate likely energy savings more realistically. Finally, it suggests how policymakers could modify energy ratings to reflect likely energy consumption more accurately.

An artificial neural network-based system to estimate the thermal comfort of buildings with energy efficiency

Heating Ventilation Air Condition (HVAC) systems consume the majority of energy in a building; it is essential to optimize this energy while improving the thermal comfort of the occupants. The Predict Mean Vote (PMV) model is considered as one of the most efficient models to define the thermal comfort of a structure. In this context this paper proposes a prediction of PMV index using ANN algorithm to classify the real-time thermal comfort states of occupants, which may provide future energy savings by adopting time-varying setpoints where real-time changes in thermal comfort may require less energy. The performance of studied algorithm was tested using several evaluation parameters such as mean square error (MSE) and correlation coefficient (R2). The algorithm studied in this article showed promising results in terms of correlation coefficient R2 and MSE.

Who Values Future Energy Savings? Evidence from American Drivers

Regulators attest that tightened energy efficiency standards save consumers money. Efficient light bulbs, appliances, and vehicles cost more upfront but reduce energy expenses by more than enough to compensate. We use survey data on American cars and their drivers to examine whether individual drivers have indeed underinvested in fuel economy, given the gas prices they face and the miles they drive. We find that may be true, but only on average. Some drivers could likely have saved money by spending more upfront for efficient cars. But many others could have saved money purchasing less expensive, less fuel-efficient cars. In fact we find little correlation between individual drivers’ annual fuel expenditures and their fuel economy choices: a driver’s income, sex, age, and education are far more closely associated with their vehicle’s fuel economy. We can rule out several explanations for the disconnect. Rich car purchasers do not seem to consider fuel expenses any more than poorer ones, undermining arguments that borrowing constraints prevent low-income consumers from investing in fuel efficiency. And the disconnect between fuel expenses and vehicle choice holds whether we examine anticipated or realized mileage, ruling out mistaken expectations about future driving as an explanation. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

The value of energy efficiency in residential buildings – a matter of heterogeneity?!

Energy efficiency ratings of residential buildings are intended to remove assessment errors from real estate markets to increase energy efficiency – the key to fully decarbonizing the building sector. Price premiums of rated buildings should reflect capitalized future energy savings, but instead are nonlinear (1), can exceed savings (2) and are correlated with buyer's characteristics (3). We explore these anomalies with a hedonic model of product differentiation, which is adapted to efficiency valuation in the housing market. The model implies that buyers with high willingness to pay for efficiency “sort” themselves to efficient buildings (and vice versa) and drive their premiums above average discounted energy expenditures - if the market share of the efficient buildings is below average. In this sense a non-linear scarcity premium explains findings (1) and (2). Furthermore, it is revealed that the results from (3) require average buyer's characteristics to vary spatially, but neither their variance nor the variance of buildings stocks efficiency – strong assumptions. The model explains measured premiums of the UK well and shows that as well as buyer heterogeneity and supply structure, the prebound effect - the overestimation of energy costs in inefficient buildings by ratings – also plays an important role in determining efficiency premiums.

Decoupling Regional Economic Growth from Industrial CO2 Emissions: Empirical Evidence from the 13 Prefecture-Level Cities in Jiangsu Province

Amid global climate warming, it is necessary to explore the decoupling relationship between economic growth (EG) and industrial CO2 emissions (ICEs). This paper uses the Tapio decoupling model and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model synthetically to analyze the decoupling relationship between EG and ICEs and reveal the driving force of growth of CO2 emissions (CEs) based on ICE panel data from 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu province from 2011 to 2015. From the research results, it can be seen that the decoupling status in southern Jiangsu, middle Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu presented weak decoupling (WD), weak negative decoupling (WND) and WD, respectively. In 2011–2013, seven prefecture-level cities exhibited states of WD, and strong decoupling (SD) occurred only in Zhenjiang, with a decoupling index value of −0.3359. In 2013–2015, five prefecture-level cities exhibited states of WD. The energy intensity and carbon emission intensity had negative inhibitory effects on ICEs, and economic development and the energy structure had positive promotion effects on ICEs. The research results have important theoretical and practical significance for future energy savings, carbon emissions reductions and the realization of a low-carbon economy in the economic development of Jiangsu.

Relationship between installed capacity with total installation cost on solar PV among prosumer NEM 2.0 in Malaysia

Generate energy by Solar PV installation among prosumer, i.e; domestic, commercial, industrial as well as agriculture for self-consumption under Net Energy Metering (NEM) system become more popular in Malaysia. One, if not the only reason, is that day-to-day installation costs are kept at a decreasing rate and this is one of the reasonable ones for future investments and energy savings. By considering this issue, this study is motivated to investigate the relationship between installed capacity with the total installation costs as represented by equipment costs, installed costs, and operating costs. Secondary data was utilized provided by Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA) Malaysia and retrieved from Malaysian Energy Information Hub (MEIH). The data is then run by multivariate regression, which is focused on the random and fixed-effect model. Overall, the findings indicate that there is a significant relationship between installed capacities with total installation costs among all categories of the prosumer in Malaysia. It would be recommended that the policymaker can increase the quota capacity allocation to the prosumer since the costs are at a diminishing rate that led to the take-up rate increase.

Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction in future aluminum supply chain

Over the past decade, the global aluminum industry has undergone profound changes, particularly as a result of China emerging as a powerhouse production base, accounting for approximately 60% of global smelting capacity by the end of 2018. To explore the potential energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction of China's aluminum industry during 2010–2050, we developed a comprehensive assessment framework based on quasi-dynamic material flow analysis, energy consumption, and CO2 emission models. Four scenarios were designed to outline future energy savings and CO2 emission mitigation in China's aluminum industry. The results show that China's aluminum demand will consistently increase from 22.67 Mt in 2010 to 51.20 Mt in 2050. In the short term, China's aluminum industry cannot achieve a completely circular economy without implementing new policies. The results also indicate that the energy intensity and CO2 emissions per ton of aluminum will gradually decline under the multiple effects of technology promotion and structure adjustment. Under all four scenarios, the strengthened policy (STP) scenario has the least total energy consumption (TEC), reaching 46.57 Mtce and 24.11 Mtce in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The effect of energy conservation and emission reductions brought about by adjusting the production structure was far higher than the increasing technology penetration rate.

The evolution and future perspectives of energy intensity in the global building sector 1971–2060

Energy efficiency plays an essential role in energy conservation and emissions mitigation efforts in the building sector. This is especially important considering that the global building stock is expected to rapidly expand in the years to come. In this study, a global-scale modeling framework is developed to analyze the evolution of building energy intensity per floor area during 1971–2014, its relationship with economic development, and its future role in energy savings across 21 world regions by 2060. Results show that, for residential buildings, while most high-income and upper-middle-income regions see decreasing energy intensities and strong decoupling from economic development, the potential for further efficiency improvement is limited in the absence of significant socioeconomic and technological shifts. Lower-middle-income regions, often overlooked in analyses, will see large potential future residential energy savings from energy intensity reductions. Harnessing this potential will include, among other policies, stricter building efficiency standards in new construction. For the commercial sector, during 1971–2014, the energy intensity was reduced by 50% in high-income regions but increased by 193% and 44% in upper-middle and lower-middle-income regions, respectively. Given the large energy intensity reduction potential and rapid floor area growth, commercial buildings are increasingly important for energy saving in the future.

Knowledge, energy sustainability, and vulnerability in the demographics of smart home technology diffusion

In this empirical study, we explore the user acceptance of smart home technologies by asking: How do people perceive their opportunities and drawbacks? What factors shape their perceptions? What implications does this have for future energy savings, sustainability, and policy? Based on a mixed methods approach involving three focus groups (N = 18) and a nationally representative survey of adults (N = 1032) in the United Kingdom, we explore the demographics, preferences, and risks of smart home technology. We do this via the lenses of knowledge and adoption; energy and climate sustainability; and vulnerability and exclusion. We explore how different classes of people—adopters versus non-adopters, high-income versus low-income, women and men, old versus young—support or oppose smart home technologies, have different degrees of knowledge and misperceptions, and reveal very different perceptions about the practices enabled by smart homes. In doing so, we show at times compelling links between smart homes and energy consumption, and possible negative impacts to poverty, inclusion, and empowerment.

How important is energy efficiency for Slovenian households? A case of homeowners and potential homebuyers and their willingness to invest in more efficient heating controls

Which attributes are the most important when buying a property? How much do individuals value energy efficiency? What discount rates do individuals employ when investing in energy efficiency and which factors influence them? This paper examines the results of a stated preference consumer survey undertaken in Slovenia in late 2017 to investigate these questions, also trying to answer how much the consumers are willing to consider future energy savings associated with the purchase of advanced home heating controls. The results show that energy efficiency as a decision-making attribute is very important for Slovenians, being the second most important after the property price. Females, environmentally aware and married individuals are more likely to value energy efficiency highly when buying a property. Interest in energy-efficient heating controls’ investment confirms the notion that people tend to discount the future benefits at 40%, on average, and give more importance to future energy savings when the investment cost is higher. Females favour higher implicit discount rates and shorter payback periods and therefore expect a higher return (energy savings) on the investment while people with higher education levels value future costs more and are willing to invest more due to the increased benefits of energy efficiency.

Modelling energy efficiency and generation potential in the South African wastewater services sector.

About 55% of energy used in the South African water cycle is for wastewater treatment, with the bulk of this energy associated with aeration in biological processes. However, up to 15% of wastewater energy demand can be offset by energy generation from sludge (power and/or combined heat and power), while best practices adoption can deliver energy efficiency gains of between 5% and 25% in the water cycle. Advanced process modelling and simulation has been applied in this study as a tool to evaluate optimal process and aeration control strategies. This study further applied advanced modelling to investigate and predict the potential energy consumption and consumption cost pattern by the South African wastewater sector resulting from implementation of optimal process and aeration energy use reduction strategies in support of sustainable municipal wastewater management. Aeration energy consumption and cost savings of 9-45% were demonstrated to be achievable through implementation of energy conservation measures without compromising final effluent regulatory compliance. The study further provided significant potential future energy savings as high as 50% and 78% through implementation of simple and complex aeration energy conservation measures respectively. Generally, the model-predicted energy savings suggest that adoption of energy efficiency should be coupled with electricity generation from sludge in order to achieve maximum energy consumption and cost savings within the South African wastewater services sector.

The capitalization of energy efficiency: Evidence from the housing market

This paper investigates how private consumers capitalize energy efficiency in the housing market, and the extent to which the provision of an energy performance certificate (EPC) affects such capitalization. We explicitly address methodological lacunae in the literature, using an exhaustive battery of identification strategies. The results indicate that energy efficiency is indeed capitalized into home prices, with OLS estimates biased downwards. Using an IV approach, we find that as the level of energy efficiency increases by ten percent, the market value of the dwelling increases by around 2.2 percent – quite a precise reflection of both the required capital outlay and future energy savings. These results are confirmed in a repeat-sales analysis. Importantly, examining the role of energy performance certificates (EPCs), we document that the extent of capitalization of energy efficiency is not affected by information provision, questioning the continued need for government-imposed certification programs.

Comparative analysis of selected glass systems by dynamic simulation using measured real environmental conditions

The subject of the study presents the measurement of temperatures on surfaces of glass systems of existing structures and the surfaces of experimental glass systems obtained by dynamic simulation. Measurements were made in the test cells of the Faculty of Civil Engineering of the Technical University of Košice. The partial results of which are the basis for the comparison of the currently installed and experimentally designed glass systems using spectrally selective films. The proposed mathematical-physical model was simplified by replacing the sash, frame and its components with a homogenous element with minimal shape modifications, while this does not have a significant effect on the simulation results. The choice of the proposed glass system respects the need for reduction of solar gains in summer and heat losses in buildings in winter through the weakest part of the building envelope and indicates future energy savings in relation to cooling and heating costs with a view to optimizing light and thermal comfort.

Who Values Future Energy Savings? Evidence from American Drivers

Regulators attest that tightened energy efficiency standards save consumers money. Efficient light bulbs, appliances, and vehicles cost more upfront but reduce energy expenses by more than enough to compensate. We use survey data on American cars and their drivers to examine whether individual drivers have indeed underinvested in fuel economy, given the gas prices they face and the miles they drive. We find that may be true, but only on average. Some drivers could likely have saved money by spending more upfront for efficient cars. But many others could have saved money purchasing less expensive, less fuel-efficient cars. In fact we find little correlation between individual drivers’ annual fuel expenditures and their fuel economy choices: a driver’s income, sex, age, and education are far more closely associated with their vehicle’s fuel economy. We can rule out several explanations for the disconnect. Rich car purchasers do not seem to consider fuel expenses any more than poorer ones, undermining arguments that borrowing constraints prevent low-income consumers from investing in fuel efficiency. And the disconnect between fuel expenses and vehicle choice holds whether we examine anticipated or realized mileage, ruling out mistaken expectations about future driving as an explanation.

Low Carbon Transition of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

It is imperative that Nigeria reduces wastage in residential electricity consumption and motivate energy saving behaviors through energy efficiency measures. These strategies aim to minimize frequent power sheds, which in turn increase reliability, thus benefiting the environment and electricity consumers. This article examines the effects of such innovative approaches to electricity savings in Nigeria through: 1) prepaid electricity metering systems and 2) fast replacements of inefficient and aging appliances. Relationships between residential electricity consumption, energy efficiency, and carbon footprint were also assessed vis-a-vis the replacement of old energy appliances and analogue electricity billing systems with more efficient devices and through prepaid metering systems, respectively. These techniques intend to promote energy saving behaviors. A System Dynamics model built on Stella platform, is used to analyze the implication of energy efficiency policy implementation on residential electricity consumption based on a simulation period of 41 years (2010 - 2050). Secondary data were sourced from the Bureau of Statistics, published articles, Nigerian power sector, World Bank, and primary data using cross sectional surveys of residential electricity consumers. Results, not only revealed that availability and utilization of prepaid electric meters and efficient appliances would motivate electricity saving behaviors, but also showed that efficient technologies could be the main drivers to future energy savings. Results also showed that carbon emissions were cut down by 45% in 2050. In addition, changes in electricity tariffs did not have any consequential effect on electricity consumption, but would rather influence electricity demand. Also, large number of occupant per house might have a negative impact on the Nigerian economic growth. Finally, results suggest that subsidies should be used on new household appliances as an effective energy policy measures. The developed model can be replicated in similar sectors in other emerging economies.

Design of balanced energy savings performance contracts

Energy savings performance contracts between the energy users and the energy service companies (ESCO) are used to finance energy efficiency investments by using the future energy savings that will result from these investments. We present an analytical model to characterise the energy savings performance contracts and discuss how the risks of estimating the energy savings affect the energy user and the service provider. This characterisation allows determination of the contract parameters for a balanced contract with the information about the energy savings that are expected from the planned energy-efficiency investments. Since it is difficult to get the statistical information about the energy savings before investing in an energy-efficiency project, we develop a distribution-free contract that sets the guaranteed energy savings level based on the mean and the standard deviation of the energy savings and the profit-sharing ratio between the ESCO and the energy user. We show that a simple distribution-free balanced contract performs satisfactorily when the distribution of the energy savings is not known and its mean and the standard deviation are estimated with error. Our analytical results show that the energy savings contracts with the right parameters can mitigate the risks related to realisation of the anticipated energy savings.

Standalone direct pumping photovoltaic system or energy storage in batteries for supplying irrigation networks. Cost analysis

Solar photovoltaic systems have become one of the most popular topics in the water management industry. Moreover, irrigation networks are water- and energy-hungry, and utility managers are likely to adapt water consumption (and consequently energy demand) to the hours in which there is energy availability. In countries such as Spain (with high irradiance values), solar energy is an available green alternative characterised by zero electricity costs and significantly lower environmental impact. In this work, several types of irrigation scheduled programmes (according to different irrigation sectors) that minimise the number of photovoltaic solar panels to be installed are studied; moreover, the effects of the variable costs linked to energy (energy and emissions costs) are presented. Finally, the effect of incorporating batteries for storing energy to protect the system against emergencies, such as unfavourable weather, is proposed. The irrigation hours available to satisfy water demands are limited by sunlight; they are also limited by the condition that the irrigation schedule type has to be rigid (predetermined rotation) and that the pressure at any node has to be above minimum pressure required by standards. A real case study is performed, and the results obtained demonstrate that there is no universal solution; this is because the portfolio of alternatives is based on investments for purchasing equipment at present and also on future energy savings (revenues). Apart from these two values, there is an economic value (equivalent discontinuous discount rate), which also influences the final results.