Future Criminal Behavior Research Articles

Psychometric properties and factor structure of triarchic psychopathy measure (TriPM) in portuguese adolescents

Psychopathy is a personality structure characterized by a set of dysfunctional traits, impulsive and irresponsible behavior, a poor and arrogant personal style in social interactions, and a lack of prosocial emotions. Although it cannot be diagnosed in adolescents, there have been references to its presence in its population. There is substantial evidence indicating a correlation between psychopathy and antisocial and criminal behavior in young people. It is therefore important that psychopathic traits be identified as early as possible to predict and control future criminal behavior. However, the specific evaluation instruments for this population are scarce. The aim of the present study is to validate an instrument for the evaluation of psychopathy, the Triarchic Psychopathy Measure (TriPM), for use with this population. The questionnaires were applied a validation sample of 793 young or Portuguese adolescents. A confirmatory factorial analysis (CFA) was performed, and the results found were considered satisfactory, χ2(1350) = 5980.77, p < .001, RMSEA = .067 (95% CI = [.064 - .068]), CFI = .915, TLI = .910, and SRMR = .080.

PROPOSING RESTORATIVE JUSTICE MODELS AS ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO ADDRESSING CRIMINAL MATTERS: A CASE STUDY OF JUDICIAL SYSTEMS IN CIVIL AND COMMON LAW COUNTRIES

Background: In recent years, restorative justice has emerged as a mechanism to enhance the involvement of victims in criminal proceedings. Its primary objective is to repair the damage caused by the offence, acknowledging it as a genuine injury in need of healing. While criminal proceedings might vary across jurisdictions based on fundamental principles of human rights, the broader aim is to offer a more comprehensive response to crime, aiming not only to punish but also to reform offenders and reduce future criminal behaviour. Methods: This qualitative study employed a descriptive, analytical method, utilising case studies and comparative analysis to explore restorative justice models in established judicial systems and their applicability to unestablished framework countries. By analysing and synchronising secondary materials, the research aimed to provide in-depth insights into successful practices and potential adaptations. Results and conclusions: The results reveal that several restorative justice models have been developed all over the world to align with the legal, socio-political, and cultural contexts of different regions and jurisdictions, such as Canada, New Zealand, and Norway. Despite the variety of restorative justice models, this exploratory study scrutinised four non-adversarial decision-making models: victim-offender mediation, community reparative boards, family group conferencing, and circle sentencing. These four models illustrate an alternative approach to community involvement in crime response, emphasising the diversity and shared themes of community engagement in sanctioning processes. The results offer resourceful guidelines for unestablished judicial systems like Vietnam to choose models best suited to specific needs.

Improving Programming in Juvenile Detention: The Impact of Project Safe Neighborhoods Youth Outreach Forums

Abstract Objectives A growing body of evidence suggests focused deterrence strategies successfully reduce criminal behavior. Very little of this evidence comes from randomized experiments. This paper takes a step toward filling this gap in the literature. We present the results of a randomized experiment evaluating a series of youth outreach forums that leverage several focused deterrence strategies. Methods This paper presents the results of a randomized controlled trial of a youth outreach forums program run in the Cook County Juvenile Detention Center (JTDC) by the Northern Illinois Project Safe Neighborhoods Task Force. Results We find the program caused a 20 percent reduction in the number of new spells at the JTDC in the eight months after random assignment and reduced total arrests by 18 percent in the first year after random assignment. While both of these impacts are somewhat imprecisely estimated, the reduction in total arrests is driven by statistically significant 43 and 40 percent reductions in arrests for violent and drug crime, respectively, and a large but less precisely estimated 30 percent reduction in arrests for property crime. These correspond to very valuable and proportionally large reductions in the social costs of crime. Our estimates also suggest the forums increase attachment to school. Conclusion The results of our study suggest juvenile detention centers may better reduce the future criminal behavior of residents by implementing similar programs to the youth outreach forums program.

Próba implementacji kurateli klinicznej i menedżeryzmu w dozorach probacyjnych

Introduction: At present in many countries the model of the work of probation officers has been subordinated to the case management method. In the Ministry of Justice started work on combining the resocialization treatment by probation officers with the assessment of recidivism risk in convicts classified into three groups of recidivism. In this manner, the probation methodology can shift from educational purposes to prevention and control. The principal goal of the proposed solutions was to turn probation officers into a professional service responsible for the protection of society and probationers themselves against next criminal acts. Research Aim: This is a review article. Its purpose to present the course of the reform of guardianship for adults after the political transformation. Evidence-based Facts: While preparing new solutions did not pay sufficient attention to the moment of implementation of the proposed recidivism risk management model into the practice of conducting probation supervisions, grading of control and adjustment of resocialization programs to different risk groups. The unprofessional implementation of the recidivism risk management model may result in the mass exclusion of the convicted persons from resocialization in an open environment. Summary: The probation officers were not prepared to recognize the criminogenic needs of the probationers. When formulating forecast, they use a very limited list of predictors of the future criminal behaviour of the probationers. This means that the probation officers must be equipped with appropriate, reliable, proven and structured recidivism risk estimation tools.

On (Measuring) Recidivism, Penal Populism and the Future of Recidivism Research

It is common criminological knowledge that recidivism – relapse into criminal behaviour – is a major predictor of future criminal behaviour, one could say a ‘hard-core’ criminogenic factor, esp. when displayed at a young age. Yet, despite its prominence and importance in both criminology and the discipline and practice of criminal law, there is an ongoing confusion about the concept and social construction of recidivism, its basic terminology, approaches to its measurement (methodology), and finally about the best ways to deal with it. In the paper at hand, we aim to unravel at least some of the grand mysteries surrounding recidivism and its research, targeting particularly domestic criminal justice professionals and researchers, since we have found a certain lack of relevant and up-to-date Croatian publications on this topic. Instead of simply presenting or arguing for any of the competing perspectives, such as the criminological, normative or penological, or a more practical instead of a scientific perspective (to name but a few), we critically analyse each of these perspectives, highlighting their pros and cons, while leaving it to the readers to choose any or all of them – depending on their own perspectives and purposes. Thus, key findings from recidivism research are discussed in the context of steadily growing penal populism, which is characterised by broadening the scope of criminalisation and increasing sentencing frameworks as well as harsher punishment practices, targeting in particular recidivists. All this occurs in the context of populist public and media discourse about crime and criminals, which effectively undermines any notion of evidence-based crime policy. But times are changing and the future of recidivism research, spearheaded by neuropenology, might very well provide us with a new kind of knowledge and understanding needed to put a check on penal populism.

Getting down to work: the employment attitudes of persons with a felony conviction and their behavioral implications

ABSTRACT The employment of persons with a felony conviction has been historically problematic. This has been partly attributed to deficits in educational/vocational training and interpersonal skills as well as certain occupational prohibitions and biases against hiring those with a criminal record. Programmatic and policy efforts to reduce these deficits and barriers have been fairly numerous, but they have also fallen short of expectation. The desired outcomes for these efforts, namely job attainment and ideally lower recidivism, have been typically modest or uncertain. In weighing this shortfall, scholars have proposed that a better understanding of employment outcomes for persons with a criminal record requires a better understanding of their attitudes about employment. Based on growing research in this area, the current study examines various attitudes on employment and the connection between those attitudes and two key contingencies, namely current job status and beliefs about the inhibiting effect of employment on future criminal behavior. In discerning these attitudes and their behavioral implications, the relative impacts of several criminological and psychological variables are explored. The findings are generated from the survey responses of 179 males with felony convictions who were on community supervision in a large urban county in Florida.

Adverse Childhood Experiences and Co-Occurring Disorders: Is There a Relationship Among ACEs, Mental Health Issues, and Substance Use Among Inmates?

Previous literature has shown that adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are a factor in future criminal behavior, victimization, and overall health. Research has also found that co-occurring disorders (CODs) are prevalent among inmates with approximately half of inmates meeting the criteria of mental health and substance use disorders in previous studies. Exposure to ACEs and drug use may also be higher in rural, Appalachian areas with the opioid crisis impacting adults and children alike. Moreover, research has indicated that some relationships, such as parenthood, may serve as protective factors for those involved in the justice system. The current study explores the relationship between ACEs and CODs, specifically in the areas of substance use and mental health among a rural jail sample. This study utilizes an Inmate History and Needs interview survey completed by 166 inmates (59 females, 107 males) from three different rural jails in a southern state to examine the relationship between ACEs and CODs among inmates, if CODs differ among male and female inmates, and the relationship between parents, CODs, and living with their children prior to arrest. We found that inmates in our study report high rates of ACEs, mental health issues, and drug use, and there is a significant relationship between exposure to ACEs and CODs.

Ethnic enclaves, early school leaving, and adolescent crime among immigrant youth

Abstract Spatial concentration of immigrant minorities raises concerns about the intergenerational consequences of place-based ethnic inequalities. This study asks how socioeconomic properties of the ethnic neighbourhood environment during adolescence predict future criminal behaviour and early school leaving among immigrant youth using administrative data from Norway. The results show that immigrant youth’s adolescent exposure to better-educated immigrant neighbours from the same origin country is related to lower risks of criminal engagement and higher likelihoods of completing upper-secondary education, while growing up in areas with less-educated coethnics is associated with adverse outcomes. Although effect sizes are modest, these relationships are robust to adjustment for a broad set of background characteristics and fixed effects at the level of neighbourhoods and national-origin groups. Coethnic neighbours’ educational resources are more strongly associated with adolescent crime and early school leaving among immigrant youth from disadvantaged family backgrounds. Overall, these findings support the predictions of influential theories of assimilation which emphasize that access to social capital and socioeconomic resources found within local ethnic enclaves shape the future life chances of immigrant youth.

Machine learning partners in criminal networks

Recent research has shown that criminal networks have complex organizational structures, but whether this can be used to predict static and dynamic properties of criminal networks remains little explored. Here, by combining graph representation learning and machine learning methods, we show that structural properties of political corruption, police intelligence, and money laundering networks can be used to recover missing criminal partnerships, distinguish among different types of criminal and legal associations, as well as predict the total amount of money exchanged among criminal agents, all with outstanding accuracy. We also show that our approach can anticipate future criminal associations during the dynamic growth of corruption networks with significant accuracy. Thus, similar to evidence found at crime scenes, we conclude that structural patterns of criminal networks carry crucial information about illegal activities, which allows machine learning methods to predict missing information and even anticipate future criminal behavior.

Risk Assessment Tools on Trial: AI Systems Go?

In the 2015 Canadian case of Ewert v. Canada, risk assessment tools were put on trial in Canada’s Federal Court and eventually at the Supreme Court of Canada, their efficacy was challenged, and their reliability was upended <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">[1]</xref> , <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">[2]</xref> . Risk assessment tools are used by the justice system to present a calculated prediction of an offender’s risk of future criminal behavior. These tools are viewed by the legal community as precursors to machine learning and technological advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) in the criminal justice system, using algorithmic and data-driven decision-making to provide courts with predictions regarding an offender’s risk if released.

The gender reveal: The effect of sons on young fathers’ criminal behavior and labor market activities

Based on New Zealand’s administrative court charges data, we document child gender-specific differences in future criminal behavior of young fathers. The deterrent impact of having a son on the future likelihood of receiving convictions persists for as long as ten years post-childbirth. Utilizing population-wide monthly tax registers and Census data, we provide key insights into the role model hypothesis. We show that young fathers with a son have (i) a higher likelihood of being in employment, (ii) higher wages & salaries, (iii) lower benefit dependency, (iv) better qualification, and (v) a higher likelihood of being in a partnered relationship.

Legal socialization during adolescence: The emerging role of school resource officers

AbstractAdolescence and later childhood are critical periods for developing attitudes toward legal authorities, a process known as legal socialization. Traditionally, scholars have understood contact with local police officers and experiences with the juvenile justice system to drive legal socialization. These interactions, and in particular how fair they are perceived to be, influence long‐term views about the legitimacy of the legal system and future criminal behavior. In recent years, however, the potential for adolescent contact with police has increased exponentially through their presence in a new context: schools. In a survey of high schoolers, we explored how school‐based police, school resource officers (SROs), function as an emerging nexus of legal socialization. We found that SROs’ influence extends beyond school grounds: the more procedurally just students perceived SROs to be, the more they were willing to follow their directives and to obey police outside of school. Further, procedural justice perceptions of SROs were correlated with school climate outcomes, including self‐reported academic success, anxiety, and identification with the school community. Our results speak to the connection between legal socialization and other developmental processes like community engagement and support expanding robust theories of legal socialization to consider arenas that intermingle legal and non‐legal authority.

PROTOCOL: Police stops to reduce crime: A systematic review.

PROTOCOL: Police stops to reduce crime: A systematic review.

A Policy Review of Employers' Open Access to Conviction Records

Employers would prefer not to hire people who will engage in criminal behavior for which the employer incurs costs. In the United States, employers are allowed to use publicly available conviction information to try to predict which candidates are at higher or lower risk of criminal activity. This open-records approach stands in stark contrast to closed-records systems in Europe, where only the government has access to this information and only the government can make determinations about potential employee risk. In this review, we find that ( a) US employers’ use of conviction information is not clearly aligned with the risk of future criminal behavior or employer costs, and ( b) using such information leads to hiring errors that pose costs to society. Perversely, we find that many of these problems come from government statutes around negligent-hiring lawsuits rather than from inherent preferences on the part of employers. We suggest research that would improve the use of conviction history to predict future criminal risk, and we discuss a hybrid policy for the United States in which the government, not employers, makes the final determination about employee risk. We argue that this approach may result in both better risk predictions and better alignment between employer and societal goals, creating advantages for employers, candidates, and society.

Veteran Treatment Court Clients’ Perceptions of Procedural Justice and Recidivism

Studies surrounding the effectiveness of veterans’ treatment courts (VTCs) are now emerging. Absent from this scholarship is an examination of the presence of procedural justice within VTCs and the influence of procedural justice on future criminal behavior of VTC clients. To begin this dialogue, this study surveys 41 clients enrolled in two VTCs in a Southern state. We explore client perceptions of procedurally just treatment by their judge and assigned supervision officer. Using an average follow-up time of 20 months, this study also examines the effects of perceptions of procedural justice on recidivism of court clients. Results find VTC clients perceive their judge and supervision officer treat them in a procedurally just manner. Interestingly, perceptions of procedural justice during interactions did not result in reduced recidivism among the current sample. Policy and program implications along with recommendations for future research are provided.

Treatment Foster Care Oregon for Delinquent Adolescents: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Purpose: To examine the effects of Treatment Foster Care on youth with serious behavior problems. Method: Included studies are controlled trials with high or medium quality, published between 1990 and September 2017. The control group consists of youth with serious behavior problems in group care, and the follow-up time was at least 12 months. The review also examines ethical and economic aspects. Results: A total of eight controlled studies were included, consisting of 633 young people and 55 effect sizes. All studies examined the same model, Treatment Foster Care Oregon (TFCO). There is moderate certainty of evidence that TFCO reduces the risk of future criminal behavior and the number of days in locked settings. Furthermore, there is low certainty of evidence that TFCO reduces the risk of delinquent peer associations, drug use, and depression. Discussion: TFCO is to be preferred to group care for youth with serious behavior problems. Ethical and economic implications are discussed.

Does childhood victimization predict specific adolescent offending? An analysis of generality versus specificity in the victim-offender overlap

BackgroundA large body of research has examined the relationship between victimization and future offending, with results suggesting that crime victims are at higher risk of future criminal behavior—known as the victim-offender overlap. Prior studies have primarily examined the relationship between general victimization (e.g., violent victimization, sexual abuse, and more) and general offending (e.g., violence, sexual offending, and drug use), and focused on adult populations. ObjectiveThe goal of the present study is to expand on prior literature by examining if specific forms of childhood victimization increase the risk of specific and analogous forms of offending among delinquent youth. MethodBased upon a population of 64,329 high-risk youth offenders in Florida, this study evaluates the specificity of the overlap among youth who were physically abused, sexually abused, or witnessed illegal substance use at home during childhood to determine if these forms of victimization increased the risk of violence, sexual offending, and drug use, respectively, when assessed in multivariate logistic regression models. ResultsResults provide considerable support for specificity in the victim-offender overlap, as hypothesized. Specifically, experiencing physical abuse (OR = 1.55, p < .001), sexual abuse (OR = 3.58, p < .001) and witnessing household substance abuse (OR = 1.66, p < .001) in childhood each significantly and substantially increased the risk of analogous criminal behavior in adolescence, even when controlling for other risk factors and forms of victimization. ConclusionThis study provided novel evidence for specificity in the victim-offender overlap, even after controlling for confounding variables. Practical implications for early intervention and crime prevention are discussed, as well as implications for future research. Highlighting the importance of specificity in the victimization and adverse childhood experience (ACE) paradigms.

The mental representation of true and false intentions: a comparison of schema-consistent and schema-inconsistent tasks

True and false intentions (i.e., lies and truths about one’s future actions) is a relatively new research topic, despite the high societal value of being able to predict future criminal behavior (e.g., in the case of an alleged terrorist attack). The current study examined how true and false intentions are mentally represented - the knowledge of which can aid the development of new deception detection methods. Participants (N = 151) were asked either to form a true intention about a future task (i.e., retrieve objects from an office) or to form a false intention about the same task (i.e., prepare a cover story about retrieving objects from an office) to conceal their actual intention (i.e., leave a secret note in the office). The schema consistency of the task was manipulated by presenting participants with a list of office supplies (schema-consistent) or random objects (schema-inconsistent) to be retrieved from the office. The abstractness of mental construal was operationalized as the number of categories used by participants to organize the task-relevant objects into thematic groups. We predicted, based on construal level theory (CLT) and action identification theory, that participants would mentally represent true intentions more concretely (i.e., use a larger number of categories) than false intentions, particularly for schema-inconsistent (versus schema-consistent) future tasks. The results of the study lend no support for these predictions. Instead, a Bayesian analysis revealed strong evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. The findings indicate that predictions from CLT do not readily translate into deception contexts. The results are discussed in light of recent failed attempts to apply CLT to research on true and false intentions, and highlight the need for alternative approaches to the topic.

Beyond Mental Health Disorders: Risk Assessment by Using the 4th Generation of Forensic Tools

The causal relationship between mental health disorders and (violent) recidivism is weak. Beyond mental health disorders, criminogenic factors contribute to the prediction of recidivism. In order to be effective, interventions need to be offense-oriented, i.e. focused on factors that are directly associated to the offense mechanism. To treat mental health disorders while ignoring criminogenic needs is highly ineffective. A risk/needs orientation of the criminal justice system must be emphasized. Therefore, psychiatric treatment will not be sufficient to prevent future criminal behavior. The main approach should be based on explaining the mechanism of the offense to understand the underlying offense dynamic and develop on that basis a well-fitting intervention strategy. FOTRES (Forensic Operationalized Therapy/Risk Evaluation System) is a structured professional judgment (SPJ) tool of the 4th. generation designed to assess recidivism risk and to monitor treatment progress and intervention quality. FOTRES now is already implemented within the Risk-Oriented Enforcement of Sentence (ROES) project in Switzerland. The cost-benefit analysis with the ROES is positive. The tool is widley used also in Germany and Austria.

Challenging Assumptions: A Genetically Sensitive Assessment of the Criminogenic Effect of Contact With the Criminal Justice System

A key assumption underlying various components of criminological thought is the criminogenic effect of involvement with the criminal justice system. Prior assessments of this effect, however, have been mixed and all are subject to potential genetic confounding. In the current study, we employ twin difference scores using both monozygotic and dizygotic twins to isolate the effect of involvement with the criminal justice system on future criminal behavior. The findings illustrate null associations between a variety of interactions of the criminal justice system and subsequent criminal offending. The study illustrates the continued ineffectiveness of the standard social science methodological approach to assessing criminology’s main assumptions.