Projections Of Future Climate Change Research Articles

Late Pleistocene to early Holocene vegetation and environmental changes in the tropical Leizhou Peninsula, South China: New evidence from the n-alkane record

Understanding past long-term vegetation responses to regional or even global climate change and forcing mechanisms is essential to future climate change projections. However, due to the lack of long-term terrestrial sedimentary records, there are few studies focusing on vegetation changes in tropical southern China since the last glacial period, especially from the perspective of peat n-alkane records. Here, we have presented a peat core record from the Xialu peatland in the northern Leizhou Peninsula, and n-alkanes were investigated in conjunction with multiple proxy indicators. Our results showed that the organic matter sources were mainly a mixture of aquatic and terrestrial vegetation, with terrestrial vegetation accounting for most of the bulk organic matter composition. From ∼44.1 to 29 cal kyr BP, the organic matter source was mainly dominated by terrestrial vegetation, which corresponds to warm and humid conditions. From 29 to 14 cal kyr BP, the input of the terrestrial vegetation was reduced, the aquatic vegetation input increased, implying cool and dry conditions. From 14 to 9.3 cal kyr BP, the climate gradually became warmer and wetter, and terrestrial vegetation dominated in this area. Overall, the climatic conditions from the Xialu peatland were generally consistent with other records from adjacent areas. Our results suggest that, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a substantial drop in regional and global sea levels may have been the main cause of drought in tropical southern China on orbital timescales. Meanwhile, several climatic fluctuations on millennial timescales could have been influenced by the variability of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Mesoscale eddies inhibit intensification of the Subantarctic Front under global warming

Abstract Oceanic mesoscale eddies are important dynamical processes in the Southern Ocean. Using high-resolution (~0.1○ for the ocean) Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR) simulations under a high-carbon emission scenario, we investigate the role of mesoscale eddies in regulating the response of the Subantarctic Front (SAF) to global warming. The CESM-HR simulates more realistic oceanic fronts and mesoscale eddies in the Southern Ocean than a coarse-resolution (~1○ for the ocean) CESM. Under global warming, the SAF is projected to intensify. The mean flow temperature advection intensifies the front, whereas the mesoscale-eddy-induced temperature advection and atmospheric dampening play primary (~67%) and secondary (~28%) roles in counteracting the effect of mean flow temperature advection. Our study suggests the importance of mesoscale eddies on inhibiting the SAF intensification under global warming and necessity of mesoscale-eddy-resolving simulations for faithful projection of future climate changes in the Southern Ocean.

Enhanced generation of internal tides under global warming

A primary driver of deep-ocean mixing is breaking of internal tides generated via interactions of barotropic tides with topography. It is important to understand how the energy conversion from barotropic to internal tides responds to global warming. Here we address this question by applying a linear model of internal tide generation to coupled global climate model simulations under a high carbon emission scenario. The energy conversion to high-mode internal tides is projected to rise by about 8% by the end of the 21st century, whereas the energy conversion to low-mode internal tides remains nearly unchanged. The intensified near-bottom stratification under global warming increases energy conversion into both low and high-mode internal tides. In contrast, the intensified depth-averaged stratification reduces the modal horizontal wavenumber of internal tides, leading to increased (decreased) energy conversion into high (low)- mode internal tides. Our findings imply stronger mixing over rough topography under global warming, which should be properly parameterized in climate models for more accurate projections of future climate changes.

China's onshore wind energy potential in the context of climate change

China has great potential for developing renewable energy to achieve its carbon neutrality goals. Orderly development of renewable energy is essential to enhance resource utilization efficiency and ensure safety during the energy system transition process. This study presents a thorough assessment of China's onshore wind power potential by considering the land suitability, the potential and temporal characteristics, and the impacts of climate change. The high-resolution maps combining wind resources with land conditions and climate scenarios are produced to provide insights into system planning, grid integration, and flexibility management. The results show that the capacity potential of onshore wind energy in China is 9.6 TW with an annual generation of 12.6 PWh, and 83 % of total capacity has a cost advantage with the levelized cost lower than the 60 $/MWh threshold. By comprehensively considering geographical, economic, and social criteria, around 8.1 % of the national territorial area is identified as the most suitable area for wind power development, primarily in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. The annual electricity generation from these areas can fulfill nearly 69 % of the nation's electricity demand. Future climate change projections indicate a remarkable generalized drop by 18 % in the north and a slight increase by 7 % in the south under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, significant changes in wind resources are mostly within restricted areas, suggesting that future climate change would like to bring negative but limited impacts on wind power production in China.

Past and future climate effects on population structure and diversity of North Pacific surfgrasses

AbstractAimUnderstanding the impacts of past and future climate change on genetic diversity and structure is a current major research gap. We ask whether past range shifts explain the observed genetic diversity of surfgrass species and if future climate change projections anticipate genetic diversity losses. Our study aims to identify regions of long‐term climate suitability with higher and unique seagrass genetic diversity and predict future impacts of climate change on them.LocationNortheast Pacific.Time PeriodAnalyses considered a timeframe from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 20 kybp) until one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario of future climate changes (RCP 8.5; 2100).Major Taxa StudiedTwo seagrass species belonging to the genus Phyllospadix.MethodsWe estimated population genetic diversity and structure using 11 polymorphic microsatellite markers. We predicted the distribution of the species for the present, LGM, and near future (RCP 8.5, no climate mitigation) using Species Distribution Models (SDMs).ResultsSDMs revealed southward range shifts during the LGM and potential poleward expansions in the future. Genetic diversity of Phyllospadix torreyi decreases from north to south, but in Phyllospadix scouleri the trend is variable. Phyllospadix scouleri displays signals of genome admixture at the southernmost and northernmost edges of its distribution.Main ConclusionsThe genetic patterns observed in the present reveal the influence of climate‐driven range shifts in the past and suggest further consequences of climate change in the future, with potential loss of unique gene pools. This study also shows that investigating climate links to present genetic information at multiple timescales can establish a historical context for analyses of the future evolutionary history of populations.

Comparison of bias correction methods to regional climate model simulations for climate change projection in Muger Subbasin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to evaluate the best performed bias correction methods to simulate the regional climate models for future climate change projections in Muger Subbasin. Delta change methods perform very well with a coefficient of correlation of 0.99 and a percent of bias –3. When we compare its corrected simulation result with observed data, the delta change method seems to have with no biases for maximum temperature, but increases by 1.67 °C from the mean for minimum temperature of 0.39 and 38.41 mm for monthly and annual precipitation, respectively. Delta change methods underestimate the model result for both temperature and precipitation. Linear scaling and variance scaling methods overestimate the maximum temperature of the simulation by 0.002 and 0.004 °C from the mean of the observed data, but it underestimates 1.59 and 1.56 °C the minimum temperature, respectively. The long-term temperature projection values (2060–2090) are higher than the near-term projections (2030–2060) for both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Similarly, the change in annual precipitation for the long-term is higher than the near-term projections. As a conclusion, the results draw attention to the fact that bias-adjusted regional climate models data are crucial for the provision of local climate change impact studies in the Muger Subbasin.

Effects of varied modern pollen-climate calibration-set establishment approaches on quantitative climate reconstructions

A representative modern calibration dataset is an essential prerequisite for a reliable quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimate. However, there has been a notable lack of systematic research on the optimal filtering of calibration sets. Four representative high-resolution pollen records were selected to repeatedly reconstruct paleoclimate using multiple approaches such as geographical distance, analogues and climate gradient. Comparisons of pollen-based reconstructions indicate that these varied approaches exhibit significant discrepancy in model performance and reconstruction accuracy under different geographical circumstances and time scales. Generally, in terms of calibration-set selection, the geographical distance method demonstrates greater efficiency for the plain region, but exhibit limitations in areas characterized by significant topographic changes. Analogue-calibration has been found to be more suitable for the edge of the database and also has been proven superior to other two methods for reconstructions exceed Holocene. Selecting calibration sets based only on climate gradients is inappropriate for independent applications, but may act as a limitation for other methods. This preliminary research can contribute to a more precise projection of potential future climate changes by providing essential data input or validating hindcasts for Earth system models.

Climate change in pest risk assessment: Interpretation and communication of uncertainties

AbstractThe prevailing climatic conditions found in a region are the primary determinant of the suitability of that area to support pests and diseases. Pest risk assessment is the primary biosecurity tool used to assess that suitability, but the changing climatic conditions owing to greenhouse gas emissions are rarely considered. Future changes in temperature and rainfall patterns may make the environmental suitability of a region more or less favourable for existing populations and cause populations to move to other regions where those pests and diseases may not be established. Future projections of climate change are uncertain, which makes it challenging to incorporate climate change into pest risk analysis, but aspects of human psychology can help us think about how to communicate the risks within the constraints of those uncertainties more effectively. Here we review the broad trends, magnitude and uncertainties of climate change, and the interpretation of climate change scenarios, and make recommendations for appropriate framing and communication of the future risks posed by climate change within pest risk assessments.

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change

AbstractThis paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of uncertainty are disentangled as much as possible, partly by means of a storyline approach. Uncertainty in future emissions is covered by making scenarios conditional on different SSP scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). For each SSP scenario and time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine a global warming level based on the median of the constrained estimates of climate sensitivity from IPCC AR6. The remaining climate model uncertainty of the regional climate response at these warming levels is covered by two storylines, which are designed with a focus on the annual and seasonal mean precipitation response (a dry‐trending and wet‐trending variant for each SSP). This choice was motivated by the importance of future water management to society. For users with specific interests we provide means how to account for the impact of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Since CMIP6 GCM data do not provide the required spatial detail for impact modeling, we reconstruct the CMIP6 responses by resampling internal variability in a GCM‐RCM initial‐condition ensemble. The resulting climate scenarios form a detailed storyline of plausible future climates in the Netherlands. The data can be used for impact calculations and assessments by stakeholders, and will be used to inform policy making in different sectors of Dutch society.

Implementation and Evaluation of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Within Non‐Urban Environments in the Community Land Model Version 5

AbstractGlobal heat stress is a phenomenon that impacts the livelihood of humans worldwide. Due to climate change, heatwaves are already increasing negatively impact outdoor laborers and activities. However, calculating heat stress on a global scale is disparaged due to the interplay and treatment of temperature, humidity, and radiation. To help resolve this issue, the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), a standardized heat stress metric, is implemented into the Community Land Model (CLM5), the land surface component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2). This resolves a long lasting, complex issue within global heat stress: the treatment of solar and thermal radiation. A default configuration of CLM5 is executed and shows the advantages of simulating the WBGT within multiple environments. Additionally, two commonly used WBGT approximations are implemented for solar exposed (sWBGT) and shaded (FiWBGT) conditions. The 1995 Chicago Heatwave is examined as a case study, focusing on the rural regions impacted by the heatwave. Derivative functions of labor capacity show that assumptions about calculating a non‐linear algorithm generate non‐negligible biases that can grossly over or underestimate the impact of heat stress on future climate change projections. For example, a difference of 0.5°C from WBGT can result in >10% change in labor capacity. Using a conservative difference of ±0.3°C, 100% of land surface extreme sWBGT values and >77% extreme shaded conditions (FiWBGT) differ from WBGT. Therefore, to accurately assess the direct exposure, risk, and damage from climate change on people, it is critical to implement diagnostics directly into Earth system models.

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

The Significance of the Melt-Pond Scheme in a CMIP6 Global Climate Model

Abstract The impact of melt ponds on sea ice albedo has been observed and documented. In general circulation models, ponds are now accounted for through indirect diagnostic treatments (“implicit” schemes) or prognostic melt-pond parameterizations (“explicit” schemes). However, there has been a lack of studies showing the impacts of these schemes on simulated Arctic climate. We focus here on rectifying this using the general circulation model HadGEM3, one of the few models with a detailed explicit pond scheme. We identify the impact of melt ponds on the sea ice and climate, and associated ice–ocean–atmosphere interactions. We run a set of constant forcing simulations for three different periods and show, for the first time, that using mechanistically different pond schemes can lead to very significantly different sea ice and climate states. Under near-future conditions, an implicit scheme never yields an ice-free summer Arctic, while an explicit scheme yields an ice-free Arctic in 35% of years and raises autumn Arctic air temperatures by 5° to 8°C. We find that impacts on climate and sea ice depend on the ice state: under near-future and last-interglacial conditions, the thin sea ice is very sensitive to pond formation and parameterization, whereas during the preindustrial period the thicker sea ice is less sensitive to the pond scheme choice. Both of these two commonly used parameterizations of sea ice albedo yield similar results under preindustrial conditions but in warmer climates lead to very different Arctic sea ice and ocean and atmospheric temperatures. Thus, changes to physical parameterizations in the sea ice model can have large impacts on simulated sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere. Significance Statement This study investigates the impacts of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice under different climate conditions, using the HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL general circulation model (GCM). Additionally, we study the impact of changing the type of pond scheme used. We find that changing the pond scheme causes large differences to how a GCM simulates Arctic sea ice, the ocean, and the atmosphere, for both near-future and warmer paleoclimate conditions. These large differences have not been found previously, because this is one of the first GCM studies of this type. Our results demonstrate the importance of melt ponds, and their wider impacts on ocean and atmosphere. Furthermore, they suggest that better evaluation of the representation of sea ice processes is vital for the robust projection of future climate change.

Precipitation Scaling in Extreme Rainfall Events and the Implications for Future Indian Monsoon: Analysis of High‐Resolution Global Climate Model Simulations

AbstractThe increase in water holding capacity of the atmosphere with temperature, given by the Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) relationship, describes the changes in extreme rainfall intensities at warmer atmospheric states. We study the characteristics of extreme rainfall events (EREs) during the Indian summer monsoon season with respect to thermodynamic changes and precipitation‐scaling over the Indian subcontinent and its homogeneous rainfall zones. We utilize outputs from a present‐day climate simulation and a time‐slice future climate change projection experiments of a high‐resolution global climate model. Large changes are seen for very EREs (vEREs) which suggests their sensitivity to warmer temperatures. In future, the altered radiative forcing will heat up the upper atmosphere, stabilize it and offset the effect of increasing humidity on precipitation intensity. Our analysis also suggests that more convective clouds and the interplay of increased moisture content and circulation will result in future changes in EREs.

Developing an economic quality assessment framework and applying it to water economic studies in the Murray-Darling Basin

Increasing environmental problems and future climate change projections necessitate the need for changing water reallocation in many countries, and hence pose considerable trade-offs and policy challenges. Water reallocation is often mired in policy debate and the socio-economic impacts on affected communities, with many differing views and studies on the type and size of the impact. The debate over the impacts of reduced consumptive water diversions in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) over the past 15 years provides an apt case example of arguments over socioeconomic impacts, with policymakers often unable to distinguish between unreliable and reliable economic impacts. In order to help judge study quality, we developed a rigorous economic quality assessment framework (EQAF). This framework was then applied in a systematic review of quantitative (theoretical and empirical) economic studies of water reduction and reallocation in the MDB. The quality assessment allowed the classification of studies into low, medium and high quality. Results reveal that studies predicting significant negative impacts from reduced MDB water diversions were generally rated as low quality. In contrast, studies predicting smaller impact were more likely to be rated high quality, because they accounted for adaptation and feedback loops. The EQAF system can be applied in many other contexts, but will be especially useful in areas of disputed predicted outcomes. Our review provides five recommendations, and emphasised in particular the need for quality control, and more assessment of causality issues within water recovery analyses, and the importance of, wherever possible, accounting for all confounders in influencing community outcomes.

Global Carbon Budget 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr−1 (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr−1 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr−1, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr−1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Modeling Current and Future Distribution of Cochlodina laminata in Eastern Europe under Climate Change

In this study, we focused on the eastern part of the Cochlodina laminata range. Although this door snail is widespread in Europe, even a widespread species may lose habitats if future climate change projections are realized. The range shift is one of the consequences of climate change. We applied SDM methods to model the current potential range of C. laminata and the range shift after 40 and after 80 years. We used climatic parameters as predictors. The annual mean temperature has the greatest impact on the modeling results (about 30–60% among models). The precipitation of the warmest quarter also had a high relative importance (about 15–40% among models). For future projections, we considered two shared socio-economic pathways (ssp245 and ssp585). We applied three algorithms: the generalized additive model (GAM), support vector machine (SVM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) and ensemble prediction. Our projections showed a decrease in habitable area in the eastern part of the range of C. laminata in 40 and in 80 years. According to the forecast, the habitat suitable area will become more fragmented. The range shift with new suitable areas is expected toward the east direction.

Background Pycnocline Depth Constrains Future Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency

AbstractThe Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency (OHUE) quantifies the ocean's ability to mitigate surface warming through deep heat sequestration. Despite its importance, the main controls on OHUE, and on its two‐fold spread across contemporary climate models, remain unclear. We argue that OHUE is primarily controlled by mid‐latitude ventilation strength in the background climate, itself related to pycnocline depth and stratification. This hypothesis is supported by a strong correlation between mid‐latitude (30–60°) OHUE and the near‐global average (60°S–60°N) pycnocline depth in CMIP5 and CMIP6 AOGCMs under RCP85/SSP585, and in a parameter perturbation ensemble of ocean GCM (MITgcm) experiments. This correlation explains about 70% of the CMIP5‐6 spread in global OHUE. The relationship provides a pathway toward observationally constraining OHUE, and thus reducing uncertainty in projections of future global climate change and sea level rise.

Heat content and temperature trends in the Mediterranean Sea as derived from Argo float data

The Mediterranean Sea is very sensitive to climatic changes due to its semi-enclosed nature and is therefore defined as one of the hotspots in future climate change projections. In this study, we use Argo float data to assess climatologies and trends in temperature and Ocean Heat Content (OHC) throughout the Mediterranean Sea and for specific sub-basins (e.g. Western and Eastern Mediterranean, Gulf of Lion, South Adriatic). The amount of the OHC, spatially averaged in bins of 1°x1° over the period from 2001 to 2020, increases from west to east in the Mediterranean Sea. Time series of temperature and OHC from 2005 to 2020, estimated in the surface and intermediate layers (5-700 m) and deeper layer (700-2000 m), reveal significant warming trends and an increase of OHC. The upper 700 m of the Mediterranean Sea show a temperature trend of 0.041 ± 0.012°C·yr-1, corresponding to an annual increase in OHC of 3.59 ± 1.02 W·m-2. The Western Mediterranean Sea (5-700 m) is warming fastest with an increase in temperature at a rate of 0.070 ± 0.015°C·yr-1, corresponding to a yearly increase in OHC of 5.72 ± 1.28 W·m-2. Mixing and convection events within convection sites and along boundary currents transport and disperse the temperature and OHC changes. Significant warming trends are evident in the deeper layers (700-2000 m) of the two deep convection sites in the Mediterranean Sea (Gulf of Lion, South Adriatic), with an exceptionally strong warming trend in the South Adriatic from 2013 to 2020 of 0.058 ± 0.005°C·yr-1, corresponding to a yearly increase in OHC of 9.43 ± 0.85 W·m-2. The warming of the different water masses will show its feedback on ocean dynamics and air-sea fluxes in the next years, decades, and even centuries as these warming waters spread or re-emerge. This will provide more energy to the atmosphere, resulting in more extreme weather events and will also stress ecosystems and accelerate the extinction of several marine species. This study contributes to a better understanding of climate change in the Mediterranean region, and should act as another wake-up call for policy makers and society.

Projection of Future Climate Change and Its Influence on Surface Runoff of the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

Global climate change will modify precipitation and temperatures’ temporal and spatial distribution, trigger more extreme weather events, and impact hydrological processes. The Yangtze River basin is one of the world’s largest basins, and understanding future climate changes is vital for water resource management and supply. Research on predicting future climate change in the upper Yangtze River basin (UYRB) and introducing machine learning algorithms to analyze the impact of climate factors, including extreme weather indicators, on surface runoff is urgently needed. In this study, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to forecast the future climate in the UYRB, and the Mann–Kendall (MK) or modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) trend test at a 5% level of significance was applied to analyze temporal trends. The Spearman rank correlation (SRC) test at a 5% level of significance and random forest regression (RFR) model were employed to identify the key climatic factors affecting surface runoff from annual precipitation, annual temperature, maximum 5-day precipitation (R×5Day), number of tropical nights (TR), and consecutive dry days (CDD), and the RFR model was also used to predict future runoff. Based on the results, we found that, compared to the selected historical period (1985–2014), the mean annual precipitation (temperature) during the mid-term (2036–2065) increased by 18.93% (12.77%), 17.78% (14.68%), 20.03% (17.03%), and 19.67% (19.29%) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively, and during the long term (2071–2100), increased by 19.44% (12.95%), 22.01% (21.37%), 30.31% (30.32%), and 34.48% (37.97%), respectively. The warming and humidification characteristics of the northwestern UYRB were more pronounced. The key climatic factors influencing surface runoff were annual precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation (R×5day), and annual temperature. Because of warming and humidification, surface runoff in the UYRB is expected to increase relative to the historical period. The surface runoff during the mid-term (long term) increased by 12.09% (12.58%), 8.15% (6.84%), 8.86% (8.87%), and 5.77% (6.21%) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The implementation of sustainable development pathways under the low radiative forcing scenario can be effective in mitigating climate change, but at the same time, it may increase the risk of floods in the UYRB.