Future Changes Research Articles

Current and future climate suitability for the hazel dormouse in the UK and the impact on reintroduced populations

AbstractReintroductions are increasingly being used as a conservation tool to restore species to areas where they once existed. Unfortunately, many reintroduction projects fail to establish viable populations. Climate suitability at release sites is thought to be important in determining reintroduction outcomes, and future climate change is an essential consideration for effective reintroduction planning. Climate change threatens species in a variety of ways, such as by impacting life history traits or causing spatial and temporal distribution mismatches of interdependent species. Hibernating species, such as the hazel dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius), may be particularly susceptible to changes in climate. For example, milder winters may increase the number of interbout arousals during hibernation, which are energetically costly. Timing of food availability may also be impacted by changing climates, potentially causing mismatches between activity and feeding opportunities. Here, we use species distribution models (SDMs) to map climate suitability for dormice in the UK. We also investigate the impact of climate suitability on a long‐running dormouse reintroduction programme, providing the first such investigation for a reintroduced mammal. We find that higher levels of current climate suitability increase the probability of reintroduction success. We find no effect of climate suitability on adult dormouse counts at reintroduction sites, but dormouse counts decline with time since reintroduction. Future projections predict that climate change may lead to more widespread climate suitability for dormice in the UK, reflecting predicted changes in seasonality, winter temperature and precipitation. Our work demonstrates the importance of understanding changing climate suitability for reintroduction planning, with potential widespread applications of SDMs for conservation projects of low‐dispersing mammals.

The Effect of Climate Change on Spatio-Temporal Activity in Burrowing Frogs of the Smilisca Group

Measuring the potential effects of future climate changes on the spatio-temporal variance of optimal conditions for seasonal species is a key conservation issue. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal patterns of optimal conditions for activity in two burrowing frogs, Smilisca fodiens and S. dentata. Ecological Niche Modeling was used to implement niche seasonality models, with calibration performed during the peak activity (July). These models were then transferred to current and future conditions for the remainder of the year, predicting future scenarios up to 2070 with an intermediate trajectory greenhouse gas concentration of 4.5 W/m2. Climate change transferability was assessed for four potential scenarios: 1) high precipitation and low temperature, 2) high precipitation and high temperature, 3) low precipitation and low temperature, and 4) low precipitation and high temperature. We examined the impact across future projected areas and analyzed geographic change trends based on latitude, longitude, and elevation. For both species, the best scenario would involve increased precipitation in the future. However, the worst-case would be a combination of reduced precipitation and higher temperatures. Due to large area loss, northern populations of S. fodiens may be highly vulnerable. Concerning S. dentata, the outlook is worrisome, with all known populations experiencing losses in most months. Area gains may not help either species since they tend to occur at elevations above their known ranges. Using a seasonal approach in spatio-temporal analysis enhances comprehension of the behavioral adaptations of seasonal species and their vulnerability to current and future climatic variations

Hydroacoustic Observations Reveal Drivers of Mixing and Salinization of a Karst Subterranean Estuary During Intense Precipitation

AbstractKarst subterranean estuaries within globally ubiquitous carbonate aquifers are coastal groundwater ecosystems that provide an essential water resource for human populations. To understand the drivers of salinization within a coastal aquifer in the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico), we employed hydroacoustics in flooded caves to observe how oceanic and atmospheric events facilitate mixing between the meteoric lens (fresh‐brackish groundwater) and the saline groundwater on tidal and episodic timescales. Precipitation during Tropical Storm Carlotta increased the flow and salinity of the meteoric lens without evidence for vertical mixing across the halocline. We postulate that vertical migration of haloclines in the conduit relative to those within the rock matrix during precipitation creates lateral density gradients that drive mixing, and ultimately creates a brackish layer within the meteoric lens. These results provide a mechanistic explanation for vertical and lateral exchange in a coastal carbonate aquifer, which has implications for groundwater response to future climatic change.

Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Future changes to the year-to-year swings between active and inactive North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons have received little attention, yet may have great societal implications in areas prone to hurricane landfalls. This work investigates past and future changes in North Atlantic TC activity, focusing on interannual variability and evaluating the contributions from anthropogenic forcing. We show that interannual variability of Atlantic TC activity has already increased, evidenced by an increase in the occurrence of both extremely active and inactive TC seasons. TC-resolving general circulation models project a 36% increase in the variance of North Atlantic TC activity, measured by accumulated cyclone energy, by the middle of the 21st century. These changes are the result of increased variability in vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability, in response to enhanced Pacific-to-Atlantic interbasin sea surface temperature variations. Robust anthropogenic-forced intensification in the variability of Atlantic TC activity will continue in the future, with important implications for emergency planning and societal preparedness.

Earlier Seasonal March of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the Mid-Pliocene

Abstract The mid-Pliocene (∼3.3–3 million years ago) has been considered as a potential analog for future climate, but the seasonal march of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM)—a distinctive feature of the modern EASM characterized by a northward migration of the monsoon circulation and rainband from early to late summer—remains unclear in this regard. Here, based on model simulations mainly from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2, we find that the seasonal march of the mid-Pliocene EASM is about two pentads earlier than today. It is accompanied by a northward shift of the monsoon circulation and rainband in July, resulting from both extratropical and tropical processes. For the extratropical path, greener vegetation in the midlatitudes enhances the surface warming, which reduces the meridional temperature gradient. The subsequent weakening and northward shift of the subtropical westerly jet lead to weaker zonal topographic Rossby waves, resulting in an anticyclone over East Asia. For the tropical path, exposure of the Sunda and Sahul shelves weakens the Walker circulation, which suppresses the Maritime Continent convection. The subsequent weakening of the local Hadley circulation increases precipitation in the tropical western North Pacific, which excites a Pacific–Japan meridional teleconnection with anticyclonic circulation over northern East Asia. These processes lead to a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high and hence the monsoon rainband. Our results unravel the dominant roles of vegetation and geography in the earlier seasonal march of the mid-Pliocene EASM, and its implications for potential future changes in the EASM’s seasonal march are discussed.

Mechanisms to support changeability during sustainment: Modularity, excess, and operations

AbstractComplex engineered systems face protracted design cycles and indefinite lifetimes, leading to discrepancies between expected and actual operating conditions. The field of design for changeability has focused on developing strategies to cope with these discrepancies. Literature has implicitly assumed that future changes can be predicted by system designers, but this assumption does not match observed reality. Often, systems must be modified in unexpected ways to maintain value, limiting the usefulness of standard change mechanisms. To understand how unexpected changes are implemented in practice, we studied the C‐130, a setting where one platform performed many missions, and close air support in Desert Storm, a setting where many platforms performed one mission. Through this examination, we find that excess and operator change are key mechanisms for changeability that have been largely ignored by literature. Excess can enable additions to systems without having to remove or swap subsystems out. It is also a critical enabler of modular changes during the operational phase. Operator changes are non‐form changes driven by system users who change how their systems are used to gain new capabilities rather than relying on changes to the form of the system. This paper also studies the relationship between these mechanisms to shed light on how changeability is achieved in practice, building the foundation for future work to study tradeoffs of implementing valuable excess during design.

A multi-scale integrative approach to study the impact of a common pesticide, the dimethoate, on a mangrove fiddler crab Tubuca urvillei.

At land-sea interface, mangroves are likely to be exposed to pesticides due to agricultural run-offs. In Mayotte Island (Comoros archipelago, Mozambique Channel), dimethoate (DMT) is found in high concentrations in tomatoes, but no data confirm its presence in mangroves. We aimed at screening the presence of DMT in three mangroves of Mayotte at different levels (highest point above crops, village, upstream mangrove, downstream mangrove) and assessing the impact of DMT coupled with reduced salinity on mangrove crab physiology. To do so, we performed 24-h exposures at sublethal concentrations (10 and 100µg L-1) corresponding to 100 × and 1000 × the environmental standard (no data exist on environmental concentrations), in seawater (SW) and diluted SW (dSW). We exposed male fiddler crab Tubuca urvillei, one of the most common fiddler crabs living in mangrove areas regularly flooded and exposed to agricultural run-offs. Different physiological endpoints were considered: behaviour, acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity, muscle energy metabolism, DNA oxidative damage and osmoregulatory capacity using hemolymph samples, posterior gills and claw muscle. We confirmed the presence of DMT in one mangrove and the effect of pesticide exposure at the different endpoints. Changes in behavioural and physiological parameters highlighted in this study could warn us of recent pesticide use upstream and help us understand past or future community-level changes in mangrove ecosystems affected by pesticide inputs.

Measuring butterfly persistence in the face of deep uncertainty: a case study using the regal fritillary

Scientists have documented effects of climate and land use change across a range butterfly species. However, incorporating future climate and land use change into butterfly conservation plans is a difficult task. These difficulties arise mainly from assumptions that future processes are the same as past processes (stationarity) and because scientists cannot reliably predict the future (deep uncertainty). In this case study, I used land use and climate change scenarios to compare possible futures for the regal fritillary, a grassland butterfly in the central United States. My analysis indicated that climate and land use change have the potential to influence species persistence, but that climate change has the larger effect. Moderate warming scenarios may improve the possibility of persistence, whereas extreme warming reduces this possibility. My analysis demonstrates the importance of considering nonstationarity and alternative plausible futures in butterfly conservation planning.

Mapping and assessing the future provision of lake ecosystem services in Lithuania

Lakes supply multiple ecosystem services (ES), key to supporting socio-ecologic systems and human well-being. In the context of future land use and climate changes, it is imperative to anticipate potential impacts on lake ES supply. Hence, studies that deal with future lake ES, such as mapping, are lacking. In this work, we mapped and assessed the future supply of three ES: (1) maintenance of nursery conditions (nursery ES), (2) maintenance of chemical conditions of freshwaters (nutrient regulation ES), and (3) direct and indirect cultural outputs (recreation ES) in Lithuania. Four future scenarios were utilised, integrating land use and climate changes: A0 - business as usual; A1-urbanisation; A2: land abandonment and afforestation; and A3 - agricultural intensification. The projected year was 2050, following the intermediate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5). The future scenarios were simulated using the open-source software Dinamica EGO based on a 6-step modelling framework. Statistical differences among the scenarios and ES were analysed by applying a Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA test. Spatial analysis was done by performing a Moran's I and Getis-Ord (Gi∗) hotspot analysis. The results showed significant differences in nursery and nutrient regulation ES. The highest supply in nursery ES was observed for the A0 scenario. For nutrient regulation ES, the lowest ES supply was identified for the A1 scenario and for recreation ES, the highest was found in the A2 scenario. The eastern and northeastern regions of Lithuania showed a high ES supply. Hot spots were only identified in the eastern region. These regions are associated with a high area covered by forests and protected areas. The central region shows a low ES supply, identified as a cold spot where the agricultural landscape dominates. The results of the PCA analysis revealed an association between nursery and recreation ES. Nutrient regulation was not associated with the other two ES. Mapping and assessing the impact of future scenarios is vital to anticipating the potential dynamics of lake ES, especially in the context of climate change. This information is essential in the context of environmental management, helping decision-makers to ensure a sustainable ES supply and contributing to human wellbeing.

Climate change mitigation and adaptation for rice-based farming systems in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Abstract Background Rice is a major contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primarily methane, and at the same time will be negatively impacted by regional climate changes. Identifying rice management interventions to reduce methane emissions while improving productivity is, therefore, critical for climate change mitigation, adaptation, and food security. However, it can be challenging to conduct multivariate assessments of rice interventions in the field owing to the intensiveness of data collection and/or the challenges in testing long-term changes in meteorological and climate conditions. Process-based modeling, evaluated against site-based data, provides an entry point for evaluating the impacts of climate change on rice systems and assessing the impacts, co-benefits, and trade-offs of interventions under historical and future climate conditions. Methods We leverage existing site-based management data to model combined rice yields, methane emissions, and water productivity using a suite of process-based coupled crop-soil model experiments for 83 growing sites across the Red River Delta, Vietnam. We test three rice management interventions with our coupled crop-soil model, characterized by Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) water management and other principles representing the System of Rice Intensification (SRI). Our simulations are forced with historical as well as future climate conditions, represented by five Earth System Models for a high-emission climate scenario centered on the year 2050. We evaluate the efficacy of these interventions for combined climate change mitigation and adaptation under historical and future climate change. Results Two SRI interventions significantly increased yields (one by over 50%) under historical climate conditions while also reducing (or not increasing) methane emissions. These interventions also increase yields under future climate conditions relative to baseline management practices, although climate change decreases absolute yields across all management practices. Generally, where yield improved, so did crop water-use efficiency. However, impacts on methane emissions were mixed across the sites under future climate conditions. Two of the interventions resulted in increased methane emissions, depending on the baseline management point of comparison. Nevertheless, one intervention reduced (or did not significantly increase) methane under both historical and future climate conditions and relative to all baseline management systems, although there was considerable variation across five selected climate models. Conclusions SRI management principles combined with high-yielding varieties, implemented for site-specific conditions, can serve climate change adaptation and mitigation goals, although the magnitude of future climate changes, particularly warming, may reduce the efficacy of these interventions with respect to methane reductions. Future work should better bracket important sensitivities of coupled crop-soil models and disentangle which management and climate factors drive the responses shown. Furthermore, future analyses that integrate these findings into socio-economic assessment can better inform if and how SRI/AWD can potentially benefit farmer livelihoods now and in the future, which will be critical to the adoption and scaling of these management principles.

Future changes in rainfall variability for the mainland Indochina southwest monsoon

Researching future changes in rainfall variability is critical for mitigating the possible effects of global warming, especially in areas where vulnerability is high, such as Indochina. While changes in mean and extreme rainfall have received a great deal of attention, rainfall variability has been poorly researched, despite its importance. We endeavored to determine the anticipated changes in rainfall variability during the mainland Indochina southwest monsoon (MSWM) by utilizing data derived from 5 ensemble models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Employing band pass filtering techniques on daily rainfall data, we discerned variability across an expansive spectrum of temporal scales. Our research indicates that, in the event of global warming, the variability in MSWM rainfall is expected to increase by approximately 10-25% throughout the whole region. Notably, this increased unpredictability appears uniformly throughout a wide range of time intervals. Changes in average rainfall significantly aid in explaining the majority of the intermodal variance in the predicted MSWM rainfall variability. To gain further insight into this phenomenon, we examined the effects of elevated atmospheric moisture content through the estimation of modifications resulting from idealized local thermodynamic enhancement. We showed that increased atmospheric moisture, as suggested by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, accounts for most of the predicted changes in rainfall variability at all time scales.

Shoreline advance due to the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake.

Large earthquakes can instantaneously reshape coastal landforms owing to fault zone ruptures that uplift the Earth's surface. On January 1, 2024, in the north of the Noto Peninsula, central Japan, an Mj7.6 (Mw7.5) earthquake occurred, triggering coastal uplift of up to 4m. To measure the resulting shoreline advance, we analyzed orthophotos taken before and after the earthquake, focusing on two bays in the northwest of the Noto Peninsula where the largest uplift occurred. In response to the uplift, the shoreline advanced by up to 200m, increasing the total area of the coastal plains by 0.46 km2. The maximum shoreline extension occurred in the midsection of both bays, while the extension at the edges was less than 20m, possibly reflecting the shoreface topography and bathymetry existing before the uplift. The uplift exposed previously undersea rocks, forming new coastal plains and extending river channels. Our results indicate that coastal landforms such as sandy beaches, coastal plains, shore platforms, and the sediment budgets of feeding drainage systems were substantially altered by this earthquake, and a long recovery period is anticipated. Our findings serve as a crucial benchmark for tracking future changes in shorelines in response to coastal landform adjustments.

Evaluating Wheat Cultivation Potential in Ethiopia Under the Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios

Land suitability analyses are crucial for identifying sustainable areas for agricultural crops and developing appropriate land use strategies. Thus, the present study aims to analyze the current and future land suitability for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivation in Ethiopia. Twelve variables including soil properties, climate variables, and topographic characteristics were used in the evaluation of land suitability. Statistical methods such as Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functions (REOF), Coefficient of Variation (CV), correlation, and parametric and non-parametric trend analyses were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variability in current and future climate data and identified significant patterns of variability. For future projections of land suitability and climate, this study employed climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) framework, downscaled using regional climate model version 4.7 (RegCM4.7) under two different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios: SSP1 (a lower emission scenario) and SSP5 (a higher emission scenario). Under the current condition, during March, April, and May (MAM), 53.4% of the country was suitable for wheat cultivation while 44.4% was not suitable. In 2050, non-suitable areas for wheat cultivation are expected to increase by 1% and 6.9% during MAM under SSP1 and SSP5 climate scenarios, respectively. Our findings highlight that areas currently suitable for wheat may face challenges in the future due to altered temperature and precipitation patterns, potentially leading to shifts in suitable areas or reduced productivity. This study also found that the suitability of land for wheat cultivation was determined by rainfall amount, temperature, soil type, soil pH, soil organic carbon content, soil nitrogen content, and elevation. This research underscores the critical importance of integrating spatiotemporal climate variability with future projections to comprehensively assess wheat suitability. By elucidating the implications of climate change on wheat cultivation, this study lays the groundwork for developing effective adaptation strategies and actionable recommendations to enhance management practices. The findings support the county’s commitment to refining agricultural land use strategies, increasing wheat production through suitability predictions, and advancing self-sufficiency in wheat production. Additionally, these insights can empower Ethiopia’s agricultural extension services to guide farmers in cultivating wheat in areas identified as highly and moderately suitable, thereby bolstering production in a changing climate.

The Legal Regime of Portuguese Higher Education Institutions: Contributions for Future Changes

The Portuguese higher education system is binary, divided into two subsystems, university and polytechnic, being regulated, since 2007, by the so-called RJIES (Legal Regime of Higher Education Institutions). The RJIES regulates the organic structure of the higher education institutions (HEIs) as well as the competencies of mandatory bodies, such as the general council, which is also given the power to elect the rector/president, another of the mandatory bodies. The RJIES, in place for 17 years, has not been revised since 2007 despite being subject of criticism and claim for changes. This paper presents a reflection for future changes to this RJIES regarding the process of electing the rector/president. This is noted and complained about by a wide range of the academic community – teachers, students, and non-teaching academic staff, in addition to other interested parties in universities and polytechnic institutes. Therefore, we present a brief review of the literature related to this topic, the results of survey and interviews carried out with top managers of Portuguese Higher Education Institutions (HEIs).The survey was completed online by a wide range of public HEIs managers (rectors and directors, presidents, vice-rectors and vice-presidents, pro-rectors and pro-presidents) and their stakeholders (teaching and non-teaching workers and students, through their representative structures, unions and student unions, and other leaders of professional and business associations). Interviews were also carried out in 2021, which remain completely current, given the fact that legal changes have not occurred so far. The results that will be presented indicate that changes should be made. Brief conclusions and a proposal for amendments to the current legislation, covering the rector/president election process, will be presented. It is advocated a new model of election of rector/president, the intervention of two different bodies, one of them being the general and supervisory council (new designation defended), with a composition mainly of external members, selected in a different way in relation to the current one.

Future Changes in Climate Extremes: Insights from CMIP6 Model Simulations for the Kagera River Sub-basin, Tanzania

Future Changes in Climate Extremes: Insights from CMIP6 Model Simulations for the Kagera River Sub-basin, Tanzania

Rainwater harvesting technologies in arid plains of Argentina: small local strategies vs. large centralized projects

Access to water has been and remains one of humanity’s greatest challenges. Especially in arid plains exposed to significant climatic fluctuations and future global change trends. In the past and present, local communities of the arid plains of central-western Argentina (i.e., Guanacache Lagoons, Cuyo region) have developed multiple strategies to manage water supply problems. The aims of this study are: i) to characterize the different water harvesting technologies (pre-Hispanic and modern) used, and ii) to compare the small local strategies of water harvesting (bottom-up solutions) with the large centralized projects (top-down solutions). On the one hand, we show the transformations of these technologies over time, and the challenges faced by inhabitants in the context of climate change trends. On the other hand, we analyze the role of the state through hydraulic policies and projects implemented by the provincial states over the last two centuries and how this impacted the study area. This review is based on a historical and archaeological bibliography, and recent publications about the region, including articles based on our ethnographic fieldwork. Our results demonstrate the valuable experience accumulated by local populations in water harvesting methods, particularly in areas where groundwater is deep and saline, and shows the adaptability of these technologies in contexts of increasing scarcity. We considered that local indigenous knowledge can largely contribute to the sustainable management of water resources. This study might be useful for decision-makers and water managers in drylands around the world to find and equitable approach that combines technical advances with local knowledge.

Policy impact on economic and environmental sustainability of anaerobic digestion: Industrial case study Insights.

This paper thoroughly examines how policy incentives impact the economic and environmental sustainability of anaerobic digestion (AD) systems. It uses techno-economic and life cycle analyses, along with real industry data, to explore the entire AD process-from feedstock acceptance to digestate disposal. It evaluates the effects of various U.S. policy crediting programs on the economic viability of different AD pathways for treating sewage sludge and food waste. Tipping fees are identified as the primary driver of profitability, while policy credits play a crucial role in enhancing economic feasibility, particularly for renewable natural gas production. However, future regulatory changes could reshape this economic landscape. All AD pathways are found to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, though economic outcomes are highly sensitive to digestate disposal costs and feedstock tipping fees. Co-digestion with food waste is proposed as a strategy to reduce dependence on policy credits and improve long-term economic stability.

Brazil nut journey under future climate change in Amazon.

Climate change is among the principal threats to global terrestrial biodiversity, especially to megadiverse ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest. In this study, we investigate how it could affect an iconic forest species-Bertholletia excelsa-(the Brazil nut) which has values in multiple dimensions in an Amazonian context. We used an ensemble from various distribution modeling methods designed for four different climate scenarios from CMIP6 by the end of the century. Then, we simulate how spatial dynamics under climate change, including explicitly dispersal events, can affect the persistence, colonization, and potential extinction of Bertholletia excelsa in the future. Our results show that by the end of the century there would be a generalized loss of suitability on the Amazon biome, regardless of the climate scenario evaluated, which could promote a significant loss (up to 94%) of the area available for the species via extinction. Our results also show that, in the future, the species would colonize higher altitudes in search of favorable conditions for its survival. Finally, we detected that areas that had previously become unsuitable because of climate change would have favorable conditions by the end of the century. Such an outcome could be useful in fostering an active restoration agenda that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change on species in this study.

24-hour movement behaviors and changes in quality of life over time among community-dwelling older adults: a compositional data analysis.

Favorable movement behavior patterns, comprising more physical activity, less sedentary behavior, and sufficient sleep, may promote the maintenance of good quality of life (QoL) with advancing age. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether movement behaviors predict future changes in QoL among community-dwelling older adults over a four-year follow-up. Participants were 75-, 80- and 85-year-old community-dwelling older adults (n = 203) followed up for 4 years. Participants wore thigh- and trunk-mounted accelerometers for 3-7 days at baseline. Proportion of time-use in physical activity, standing and sedentary behavior were assessed based on body posture and movement intensity. Time in bed was determined using an automated algorithm. QoL was assessed during a home interview using the short Older People's Quality of Life Questionnaire at baseline and follow-up (range 13-65, higher scores indicate higher QoL). Compositional linear regression analysis was used to study whether baseline time-use composition predicts changes in QoL. Over the 4-year follow-up, QoL scores decreased by 5% on average. Higher physical activity in relation to the other movement behaviors was associated with increase in QoL over time (βilr 0.94, p = 0.013), but this association attenuated after adding baseline physical function into the model. Sedentary behavior, standing, and time in bed were not associated with changes in QoL. Theoretical reallocation of 30min of physical activity into sedentary behavior, standing or time in bed was estimated to decrease QoL by 0.5 (CI 95% -0.6 to -0.4), 0.6 (-0.7 to -0.5) and 0.4 (-0.5 to -0.3) points, respectively. Theoretical reallocation of physical activity into sedentary behavior, standing, and time in bed was found to be associated with prospective decline in QoL among older adults. Engaging more in physical activity and less in more passive activities may promote better QoL with advancing age.

Projected changes of Greenland’s periphery glaciers and ice caps

Abstract Rapid global warming has caused drastic mass loss in Greenland’s peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs), contributing to a rise of global sea levels. To better understand future changes under different emission scenarios, we used the Open Global Glacier Model to simulate glacier dynamics and runoff changes from 2015 to 2100. The results show that their area and volume will decrease by 38.88% (SSP1-2.6) to 60.84% (SSP5-8.5) and 47.56% (SSP1-2.6) to 67.10% (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, with regions that have larger glacierized areas and are farther from the ocean experiencing less volume loss. Meanwhile, the predicted surface mass balance of Greenland’s peripheral GICs in 2100 is −0.58 ± 0.92, −1.18 ± 1.13, −2.04 ± 0.79 and −3.16 ± 0.96 m w.e. a−1 under four emission scenarios. The runoff under higher emission scenarios is larger than that under lower emission scenarios, with peak water occurring later in regions that have larger glacierized areas and are farther from the ocean.