Future Cancer Burden Research Articles

Current and future burden of breast cancer in Asia: A GLOBOCAN data analysis for 2022 and 2050

BackgroundBreast cancer remains a significant health concern in Asia. This study seeks to analyze the burden of breast cancer in Asia based on the most recent GLOBOCAN 2022 estimates. MethodsData were obtained from GLOBOCAN 2022. Age-standardized rates for incidence and mortality per 100,000 person-years were calculated using direct age standardization with the Segi-Doll World standard population. Pearson's correlation coefficient was utilized to evaluate the relationship between human development index and incidence or mortality rate. The future number of breast cancer cases and deaths by 2050 was estimated based on global demographic projections. ResultsIn 2022, breast cancer accounted for 2296.8 thousand new cases and 666.1 thousand deaths worldwide. In Asia, an estimated 985.4 thousand new cases and 315.1 thousand deaths were reported, corresponding to age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 34.3 and 10.5 per 100,000, respectively. Both incidence and mortality rates were notably higher among older individuals, especially in countries with high human development index. A positive correlation between human development index and incidence rates was observed, while mortality rates were highest in countries with low human development index. China and India are the leading contributors to both new cases and deaths, with projections indicating that by 2050, around 1.4 million new breast cancer cases and 0.5 million deaths are expected to occur in Asia. ConclusionBreast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Asia. Global collaboration is essential to reduce its growing burden, especially in low-HDI countries facing rising incidence and high mortality rates.

Global Disparities of Cancer and Its Projected Burden in 2050

Cancer prevention and care efforts have been challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic and armed conflicts, resulting in a decline in the global Human Development Index (HDI), particularly in low- and middle-income countries. These challenges and subsequent shifts in health care priorities underscore the need to continuously monitor cancer outcome disparities and statistics globally to ensure delivery of equitable and optimal cancer prevention and care in uncertain times. To measure the global burden of 36 cancers in 2022 by sex, age, and geographic location and to project future trends by 2050. This cross-sectional study used population-based data from 2022 in 185 countries and territories were obtained from the Global Cancer Observatory database. Data extraction and analysis were carried out in April 2024. Counts, rates, prevalence, mortality to incidence ratios (MIRs), and demography-based projections were used to characterize current and future cancer burden. This population-based study included 36 cancer types from 185 countries and territories. By 2050, 35.3 million cancer cases worldwide are expected, a 76.6% increase from the 2022 estimate of 20 million. Similarly, 18.5 million cancer deaths are projected by 2050, an 89.7% increase from the 2022 estimate of 9.7 million. Cancer cases and deaths are projected to nearly triple in low-HDI countries by 2050, compared to a moderate increase in very high-HDI countries (142.1% vs 41.7% for cancer cases and 146.1% vs 56.8% for cancer deaths). Males had a higher incidence and greater number of deaths in 2022 than females, with this disparity projected to widen by up to 16.0% in 2050. In 2022, the MIR for all cancers was 46.6%, with higher MIRs observed for pancreatic cancer (89.4%), among males (51.7%), among those aged 75 years or older (64.3%), in low-HDI countries (69.9%), and in the African region (67.2%). In this cross-sectional study based on data from 2022, cancer disparities were evident across HDI, geographic regions, age, and sex, with further widening projected by 2050. These findings suggest that strengthening access to and quality of health care, including universal health insurance coverage, is key to providing evidence-based cancer prevention, diagnostics, and care.

Development and Evaluation of Project Management Training for Cancer Research in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Globally, there were 19.3 million new cancer cases and 10 million cancer deaths, with the African continent contributing approximately 1.1 million new cases and over 700,000 deaths to the global cancer burden in 2020. High quality research is required to understand the etiology and risk factors for common cancers in the region to develop context specific strategies aimed at minimizing the future cancer burden in Africa. Our study addresses a significant gap in the knowledge and resources available for training a project management (PM) workforce for cancer research in Africa. We developed and evaluated a training program to strengthen the research capacity of project managers involved in cancer research in Africa. This workshop was held in collaboration with the Men of African Descent and Carcinoma of the Prostate (MADCaP) Consortium. The PM working group of the MADCaP Consortium had previously developed a project manager toolkit to provide a structured approach to PM for cancer research in Africa. We implemented and evaluated this training toolkit in a hybrid workshop in Nigeria. Among 29 participants from 10 African institutions, PM skills improved after training by 16.6% compared with pretraining levels. In a 1-year follow-up survey, training skills remained better (80.8%) than before the training (70.8%). The training program successfully upskilled the trainees with a significant improvement in knowledge of PM practices including planning, execution, monitoring, and evaluation of projects. The majority (80%) reported an excellent training experience. PM skills training can be successfully implemented in Africa with long-term retention of knowledge geared toward developing a workforce critical for the implementation of cancer research in the region.

Trends of older gastric cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China: 2010–2019 and prediction to 2024

BackgroundGastric cancer is a major health problem worldwide, with a high incidence among older adults. Given the aging overall population, it was crucial to understand the current burden and prospective trend of older gastric cancer. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of the incidence, mortality, and survival of older gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China from 2010 to 2019, and to predict the future burden of older gastric cancer up to 2024.MethodsThe study was conducted in Gansu province, an area characterized by the highest gastric cancer incidence and mortality in China. The registration data of gastric cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2019 were pooled from registries in the Gansu Cancer Registration System, while survival data were collected from the First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, and Gansu Cancer Hospital. Chinese standard population in 2000 and the Segi’s world standard population were applied to calculate the age-standardized rate. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in cancer incidence and mortality. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to generate forecasts for incidence and mortality from 2020 to 2024.ResultsBased on registry data from 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer among older adults remained stable. The incidence rates declined from 439.65 per 100,000 in 2010 to 330.40 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.59% (95% confidence interval[CI], -5.14 to 0.04, P = 0.06). Similarly, the mortality rate changed from 366.98 per 100,000 in 2010 to 262.03 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.55% (95% CI, -8.77–4.08%, P = 0.44). In the hospital-based cohort, the decline in survival rates was reported among older patients with gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, with the 3-year overall survival (OS) decreasing from 58.5% (95% CI, 53.5–63.2%) in 2010 to 34.4% (95%CI, 32.1–36.7%) in 2019, and the 3-year progression-free survival (PFS) decreasing from 51.3% (95%CI, 47.5–55.1%) in 2010 to 34.2% (95%CI, 32.0–36.3%) in 2019, respectively. Moreover, forecasts generated by ARIMA models revealed a significant decline in the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer in China from 2020 to 2024. Specifically, the incidence rate of older gastric cancer was expected to decrease from 317.94 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 205.59 per 100,000 population in 2024, while the anticipated mortality rate was estimated to decrease from 222.52 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 186.22 per 100,000 population in 2024.ConclusionFrom 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer remained stable in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, while the survival rates showed a decline. Based on the ARIMA models, it was anticipated that there might be a continued decline in older gastric cancer incidence and mortality in the highest-risk area in China over the next five years.

The current and future cancer burden in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

Cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This study aims to provide cancer incidence and mortality estimates in 2020 in the GCC countries alongside future projections for 2040 to shape cancer control policy in the region. The estimated numbers of new cancer cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer; new cancer cases, cancer deaths, and corresponding age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for the year 2020 are presented. An estimated 42,475 new cancer cases and 19,895 deaths occurred in the GCC countries in 2020, with corresponding age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 96.5 and 52.3 per 100,000, respectively. Female breast (16%), colorectal (13%), and thyroid (9%) were the most common types of cancer in the GCC countries, accounting for almost 40% of all cancer incidence. Colorectal (14%) followed by breast cancer (9%) were the leading causes of cancer death, though the magnitude of rates of the major cancer types varied substantially across the GCC countries. Even if we assume rates in the region will remain unchanged over the next two decades, the cancer burden in the GCC will increase by 116% (Saudi Arabia) to 270% (Qatar), reaching nearly 104,000 cancer cases by the year 2040. The sharp increase in the estimated cancer incidence and mortality predicted over the next decades in the region requires workforce and financial planning for the healthcare systems in the constituent countries, alongside broader strengthening of national cancer prevention and control efforts.

Recent and projected incidence trends and risk of anal cancer among people with HIV in North America.

Anal cancer risk is elevated among people with HIV. Recent anal cancer incidence patterns among people with HIV in the United States and Canada remain unclear. It is unknown how the incidence patterns may evolve. Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, we investigated absolute anal cancer incidence and incidence trends nationally in the United States and Canada and in different US regions. We further estimated relative risk compared with people without HIV, relative risk among various subgroups, and projected future anal cancer burden among American people with HIV. Between 2001 and 2016 in the United States, age-standardized anal cancer incidence declined 2.2% per year (95% confidence interval = ‒4.4% to ‒0.1%), particularly in the Western region (‒3.8% per year, 95% confidence interval = ‒6.5% to ‒0.9%). In Canada, incidence remained stable. Considerable geographic variation in risk was observed by US regions (eg, more than 4-fold risk in the Midwest and Southeast compared with the Northeast among men who have sex with men who have HIV). Anal cancer risk increased with a decrease in nadir CD4 cell count and was elevated among those individuals with opportunistic illnesses. Anal cancer burden among American people with HIV is expected to decrease through 2035, but more than 70% of cases will continue to occur in men who have sex with men who have HIV and in people with AIDS. Geographic variation in anal cancer risk and trends may reflect underlying differences in screening practices and HIV epidemic. Men who have sex with men who have HIV andpeople with prior AIDS diagnoses will continue to bear the highest anal cancer burden, highlighting the importance of precision prevention.

Recalibrating temporalities of risk: alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk for Australian women pre-midlife before and during COVID-19

Experiences of time and risk during the COVID-19 pandemic were volatile; exacerbated by lockdowns resulting in working from home, social distancing and home schooling. This article explores embodied temporalities of risk before and during the pandemic in relation to alcohol consumption and breast cancer for a small, non-probability sample of Australian women pre-midlife (aged 25–44). Layered inferential analyses of our data, collected at four timepoints pre- and during- the COVID-19 pandemic, enabled an illumination of the horizons of risk in women’s lives (broadly construed) and the ways these were recalibrated during the pandemic to manage its gendered stressors. Findings from this longitudinal study suggest that future risks of breast cancer were often discounted or faded from view, as new risks with more immediate consequences emerged: including viral transmission and surviving the (gendered) emotional/relational labours of lockdown. The immediacy of alcohol’s effects, both positive and negative, stayed in view however for women and served as a source of reflection around ‘health’ and ‘wellbeing’, with psychosocial wellbeing elevated over physical health. Examining the multiple time-framings of risk which co-existed on the horizons for women in pre-midlife helped us to elucidate challenges to decreasing future breast cancer burden at population levels via alcohol reduction alone. These insights advance scholarship on how gendered temporalities of risk are reflexively embodied in daily life.

Study the technical validity and feasibility of serum HER-2/Neu and its correlation with tissue HER-2 status in female breast cancer patients only

Background: Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of death in women worldwide. The future burden of breast cancer is predicted to increase over 3 million new cases and 1 million deaths in 2040. In India, it is being increasingly diagnosed at a younger age as compared to the west. Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER-2) transmembrane protein, with a molecular weight 185 kDa, plays a key role in cell growth and its overexpression favors cell proliferation by inhibiting apoptosis. HER-2 extracellular domain, released into blood before appearing into tissue, can be easily detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) using serum. HER-2 has many roles in assisting diagnosis, targeted therapy, and evaluating prognosis. Aims and Objectives: The study aimed to monitor the serum HER-2 level and its correlation with tissue HER-2 status in breast cancer patients. Materials and Methods: We performed a prospective study on technical validity and feasibility of serum HER-2 level by ELISA in breast cancer patients and its correlation with tissue HER-2 status by immunohistochemistry (IHC) method. Results: We found the serum ELISA level was raised and within the reference range in all breast cancer patients. A higher level of serum HER-2 level was seen in high tumor stage, high Nottingham grade, and with axillary lymph node metastasis. Serum HER-2 level was significantly higher in IHC score 3+ as compared to score 2+and 1+. Conclusion: This study concluded that serum HER-2 ELISA is a valid and feasible test. Association of serum HER-2 level with tumor stage; Nottingham grade; and axillary nodal metastasis was significant. The correlation between serum HER-2 and tissue HER-2 was found significant. Thus, serum HER-2 may be used as an early diagnostic and prognostic biomarker to guide in clinical practice.

Life's Simple 7 for cardiovascular health is associated with cancer risk in the Moli-sani Study

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease and cancer share modifiable risk factors and, potentially, molecular mechanisms of disease, as postulated by the “common soil” hypothesis. We examined whether the American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7 (LS7) metrics to assess and promote cardiovascular health, is associated with cancer risk, defined as first hospital admission for any cancer obtained through record linkage with hospital discharge forms. Methods Longitudinal analyses on 21,705 apparently cancer-free participants (mean age 55.2±11.6; 51.9% women) at cohort entry in the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010). Components of the LS7 include cigarette smoking, physical activity, diet, body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol and glucose: each ideal CV health metric was assigned 2 points, and all points were summed to compute a CV health score ranging between 0 to 14 points. CV health scores were then classified as poor (0 to 6), average (7 to 9), and ideal (10 to 14). Results Over a median follow up of 13 y, a total of 1,918 hospital admissions for any cancer were recorded. The proportion of poor, intermediate and ideal CV health were respectively 33.2%, 47.6%, and 19.2%. In a multivariable-adjusted COX analysis controlled for known risk factors, participants in the ideal CV health category experienced 29% lower risk of cancer hospitalization (HR = 0.71; 95%CI 0.61-0.83) compared with the poor CV health category. These associations tended to be stronger in men (HR = 0.60; 95%CI 0.48-0.76) than in women (HR = 0.80; 95%CI 0.64-0.99), but were of the same magnitude in both the elderly (aged ≥65 y; HR = 0.74; 0.55-0.99) and younger participants (aged <65 y; HR = 0.75; 95%CI 0.63-0.90). Conclusions Results from this large cohort of middle-aged and elderly Italians suggest that improving cardiovascular health could also reduce the future burden of cancer, supporting the hypothesis of a common soil of underlying risk factors for these two groups of diseases. Key messages • The Life’s Simple 7 metric initially developed to promote cardiovascular health is associated with future cancer risk in a large population of middle-aged and elderly Italians. • These findings reinforce the notion of a “common soil” of underlying risk factors for cardiovascular disease and cancer, and support common public health strategies for prevention.

Trends and future projections of liver cancer incidence in Hong Kong: a population-based study

BackgroundLiver cancer remains a significant burden in Hong Kong. We sought to examine trends in liver cancer incidence using 30 years of cancer registry data in Hong Kong. Additionally, we aimed to assess the impact of age, period and birth cohort on liver cancer incidence, provided projections for liver cancer incidence until 2030, and examined the drivers of liver cancer incidence.MethodsData on liver cancer incidence were collected from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (HKCaR). We assessed age, period, and birth cohort effects using age-period-cohort (APC) models. We employed Bayesian APC analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations to project the future burden of liver cancer in Hong Kong. Furthermore, we attributed the changes in new liver cancer cases to population growth, population ageing, and epidemiological changes.ResultsThe study included a total of 51,333 individuals, of whom 39,287 (76.53%) were male. From 1991 to 2020, the age-standardized liver cancer incidence rate in Hong Kong continued declining, while the number of new cases increased significantly, especially among males. The net drift, representing the overall annual percentage change of the age-adjusted rate, was − 3.06% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.31% to -2.80%) for males and − 3.85% (95% CI: -4.61% to -3.09%) for females. Local drift, which estimates the annual percentage change over time specific to age group, decreased in all age groups for both sexes, with a more pronounced decrease in younger age groups. The period and cohort risk of developing liver cancer also showed decreasing trends for both sexes. The study projected a decline in liver cancer cases for males but an increase for females in Hong Kong, with an estimated 1,083 cases in males and 710 cases in females by 2030. Demographic decomposition analysis revealed that while population growth and ageing were the main drivers of increased liver cancer cases, epidemiologic shifts mostly offset these factors.ConclusionThe period and cohort risk of developing liver cancer in Hong Kong declined due to epidemiological changes. Although the age-standardized incidence rates of liver cancer have also declined, demographic and epidemiological factors have led to lower case expectations in males but a likely increase in females. Further research and epidemiological assessment of the disease are needed.

Impact of changing the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity on cancer incidence in China from 2021 to 2050: a simulation modelling study

Smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity are key cancer risk factors contributing to the cancer burden in China. We aimed to quantify the cancer burden in China associated with smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity, and estimate the potential effect for cancer prevention interventions under different scenarios. We used a macro-simulation approach called Prevent Model to estimate for a 30-year study period (2021-2050) numbers and proportions of future avoidable cancer cases under different scenarios of reducing the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity in Chinese adults. Cancer incidence was predicted under three scenarios: elimination, ambitious target (between elimination and manageable target) and manageable target (from national policy or global action plan). Risk factor prevalence was obtained from China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance, and cancer incidence data were derived from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report. Relative risks were obtained from several recent large-scale studies or high-quality meta-analysis. Population data were extracted from the China Population & Employment Statistical Yearbook, China Health Statistical Yearbook and World Population Prospects. Estimates of the avoidable cancer burden varied with different scenarios. In the theoretical maximum intervention scenario, where the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity would be eliminated, 9.17% (males: 13.50%; females: 1.47%) of smoking-related cancer cases, 7.06% (males: 11.49%; females: 1.00%) of cancer cases related to alcohol consumption and 8.22% (males: 7.91%; females: 8.52%) of overweight/obesity-related cancer cases were estimated to be avoidable during 2021-2050. Other scenarios, with more moderate goals in the exposure prevalence of smoking, alcohol use and overweight/obesity were also found to be associated with substantial reductions in the future cancer burden. Our results suggested that a substantial number of future cancer cases could be avoided in Chinese adults by reducing the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity. National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China; Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen.

Obesity and thyroid cancer risk.

This review explores recent evidence assessing the relationship between obesity and thyroid cancer. Consistent evidence from observational studies suggests that obesity increases the risk of thyroid cancer. The relationship persists when alternative measures of adiposity are used, but the strength of association may vary according to the timing and duration of obesity and how obesity or other metabolic parameters are defined as exposures. Recent studies have reported an association between obesity and thyroid cancers that are larger or have adverse clinicopathologic features, including those with BRAF mutations, thus providing evidence that the association is relevant for clinically significant thyroid cancers. The underlying mechanism for the association remains uncertain but may be driven by disruption in adipokines and growth-signaling pathways. Obesity is associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer, although further research is required to understand the biological mechanisms underpinning this relationship. Reducing the prevalence of obesity is predicted to lessen the future burden of thyroid cancer. However, the presence of obesity does not impact current recommendations for screening or management of thyroid cancer.

Breast cancer: Global patterns of incidence, mortality, and trends.

10528 Background: The global burden of cancer incidence and mortality including that of female breast cancer continues to increase largely because of the growth and aging of the population and adoption of western lifestyle behaviors that increase cancer risk. In this study, we summarize the current burden, trends, and survivorship of female breast cancer that account for nearly 12% of the cancer burden worldwide. Methods: Estimates of incidence and mortality in the year 2020 were obtained from Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) database. GLOBOCAN provides country-specific estimates of cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence for 185 countries or territories and 36 cancer types by age group and sex. For US rates, data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program were assessed. Rates are age-standardized (ASRs) (per 100,000 person-years) using the 1966 Segi-Doll World Standard Population. Geographic variability was assessed using 20 predefined world regions, and the 4-tier Human Development Index (HDI). Finally, we provide a prediction of the future burden of female breast cancer in 2040 based on demographic projections. Results: Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death in females worldwide, with an estimated 2.3 million new cancer cases (1 in 4 new cancer cases) and 685,000 cancer deaths (1 in 6 deaths) in 2020. Breast cancer incidence rates varied by nearly 4-fold across WHO areas. The highest incidence rates (per 100,000) were found in Australia/New Zealand (95.5), Western Europe (90.7), and Northern America (89.4), while the lowest rates were in South-Central Asia (26.2), Middle and Eastern Africa (33), and Central America (39.5). In contrast, the highest breast cancer mortality rates were recorded in Melanesia (37.5), Polynesia and Western Africa (22.3), and the Caribbean (18.9), while the lowest rates were found in Eastern Asia (9.8), Central America (10.4), and Australia/New Zealand (12.1), a 2.8-fold difference. In the United States, the age-standardized breast cancer incidence rate (per 100,000) increased from 106 (1975) to 142 (1999), decreased to 128 (2004), and then slowly increased to 137 (per 100,000) in 2019. Similar broad temporal trend patterns were observed in other western countries. Incidence rates are rising in South America, Africa, and Asia where rates were historically low. Worldwide, an estimated 2,964,197 new female breast cancer cases are projected to occur in 2040, a 31% increase from the corresponding 2,260,127 cases in 2020. Conclusions: There is significant variation in female breast cancer incidence and mortality rates worldwide. Breast cancer incidence is increasing at different rates in various regions of the world. Mortality rates in many high HDI countries have been on the decline, in contrast to increasing rates in low HDI countries. This study also shows a substantial increase in new breast cancer diagnoses over the next two decades.

Projection of the number of new lung cancer cases in the world.

In order to compare the estimated number of lung cancer cases from 2020 to 2040 between Japan and other countries, we extracted information on reported projection of the number of new cancer cases from the ‘Global Cancer Observatory’ website (1). On this site, the predicted future cancer burden worldwide from the estimates in 2020 up until 2040 was reported. The estimates were based on the assumption that the incidence rate by sex and age group for each country in the world as of 2020, as estimated by the GLOBOCAN project (2), will remain constant until 2040. This means that the increase or decrease in the number of cancer cases will depend only on the projected population. We calculated the incremental growth rate to 2040 prediction relative to the number of cases in 2020, and showed on the figures how much the incremental growth will be for each country. Figure 1 shows the trend of estimated new cancer cases for males. In China, the incidence in 2020 is clearly high compared with other countries, about five to six times that of the USA and Japan, and is expected to increase rapidly; in 2040, the incidence will be 163.5% of that in 2020, 881 318. In all other countries, the number of new cancer cases is expected to increase. In terms of rate of increase, Uganda (+140.6%) was the fastest, followed by South Korea (+96.7%), Colombia (+92.9%), Brazil (+85.4%) and Egypt (+81.4%). In Japan, the number of new lung cancer cases diagnosed in both 2020 and 2040 is second only to that of the USA, but the rate of increase is the lowest among the countries observed, at 16.7%.

Projection of the number of new cancer cases in the world.

To compare the estimated number of cancer cases from 2020 to 2040 between Japan and other countries, we extracted information on reported projection of the number of new cancer cases from ‘Global Cancer Observatory’ website (1). In this site, the predicted future cancer burden worldwide from the estimates in 2020 up until 2040 were reported. The estimats were assumed that the incidence rate by sex and age group for each country in 2020 remain the same through 2040. And the incidence rates in 2020 were then estimated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (2). This means that the increase or decrease in the number of cancer cases will depend only on the projected population. We calculated the incremental growth rate to 2040 prediction relative to the number of cases in 2020, and showed on the Figures how much the incremental growth will be for each country. Figure 1 showed the trend of estimated newly cancer cases for males. In China, the incidence in 2020 is very high compared to other countries, about double that of the USA, and is expected to increase rapidly, reaching 3 837 000 in 2040. The USA also has high estimated number of new cancer cases in 2040, followed by Japan, Brazil and Germany. In terms of the rate of increase between 2020 and 2040 among these four countries, Brazil has the highest rate at 76.2%, followed by the USA at 41.9%, Germany at 26.0% and Japan at 12.6%. In all other countries, the number of new cancer cases were expected to increase. The number of new cases depend, of course, on the size of the population, with the largest increases in Uganda (122.4%), Colombia (78.0%), Egypt (75.7%) and Republic of Korea (70.2%), and relatively small increases in the three European countries (26–35%).

Global burden and trends of lung cancer incidence and mortality.

Lung cancer has been the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide for many years. This study aimed to investigate the global patterns and trends of lung cancer. Lung cancer incidence and mortality were derived from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Continuous data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Time Trends were used to analyze the temporal trends from 2000 to 2012 using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent changes were calculated. The association between the Human Development Index and lung cancer incidence and mortality was assessed by linear regression. An estimated 2.2 million new lung cancer cases and 1.8 million lung cancer-related deaths occurred in 2020. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) ranged from 36.8 per 100,000 in Demark to 5.9 per 100,000 in Mexico. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) varied from 32.8 per 100,000 in Poland to 4.9 per 100,000 in Mexico. Both ASIR and ASMR were approximately twice higher in men than in women. The ASIR of lung cancer showed a downward trend in the United States of America (USA) between 2000 and 2012, and was more prominent in men. The age-specific incidence rates of lung cancer for ages of 50 to 59 years showed an upward trend in China for both men and women. The burden of lung cancer is still unsatisfactory, especially in developing countries like China. Considering the effectiveness of tobacco control and screening in developed countries, such as the USA, there is a need to strengthen health education, accelerate the establishment of tobacco control policies and regulations, and improve early cancer screening awareness to reduce the future burden of lung cancer.

Global liver cancer incidence and mortality and future trends from 2000 to 2020: GLOBOCAN data analysis

Objective: To compare the geographical differences and time trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality in different regions around the world so as to predict the future burden of liver cancer. Methods: The incidence and mortality data of liver cancer in different Human Development Index (HDI) countries from 2000 to 2020 were collected from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. The joinpoint model and annual percent change (APC) were used to analyze the liver cancer global incidence and mortality as well as future epidemic trends from 2000 to 2020. Results: ASMR for male liver cancer was increased from 8.0/100, 000 in 2000 to 7.1/100,000 in 2015 (APC = -0.7, 95%CI: -1.2 ~ -0.3, P = 0.002), while ASMR for female liver cancer was increased from 3.0/100, 000 in 2000 to 2.8/100, 000 in 2015 (APC = -0.5, 95%CI: -0.8 ~ -0.2, P < 0.001). The ratio of male to female ASMR was 2.67:1 in 2000 and 2.51:1 in 2015, indicating a slight narrowing of the difference in mortality between men and women. In 2020, the global ASIR and ASMR for liver cancer were 9.5/100 000 and 8.7/100 000, respectively. Male ASIR and ASMR (14.1/100, 000 and 12.9/100, 000, respectively) were 2 ~ 3 times higher than females (5.2/100, 000 and 4.8/100, 000, respectively). There were significant differences between ASIR and ASMR in different HDI countries and regions (P(ASIR) = 0.008, P(ASMR) < 0.001), and the distributions of ASMR and ASIR were very similar. New cases and deaths were expected to increase by 58.6% (143,6744) and 60.9% (133, 5 375) in 2040, with the number of cases and deaths increasing by 39,7003 and 37,4208 in Asia, respectively. Conclusion: ASMR due to liver cancer worldwide has had a downward trend between 2000 and 2015. However, the latest epidemiological status and predictions of liver cancer in 2020 indicate that prevention and control will still be a major challenge globally in the next 20 years.

Epidemiological Trends of Kidney Cancer Along with Attributable Risk Factors in China from 1990 to 2019 and Its Projections Until 2030: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Understanding the past and future burden of kidney cancer in China over years provides essential references for optimizing the prevention and management strategies. The data on incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates of kidney cancer in China, 1990-2019, were collected from the database of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to depict the trends of kidney cancer burden, and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence and mortality in the next decade. Over the past 30 years, the number of new kidney cancer cases sharply increased from 11.07 thousand to 59.83 thousand, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) tripled from 1.16/100,000 to 3.21/100,000. The mortality and DALYs also presented an increasing pattern. Smoking and high body mass index were mainly risk factors for kidney cancer. We predicted that by 2030, the incident cases and deaths of kidney cancer would increase to 126.8 thousand and 41.8 thousand, respectively. In the past 30 years, the kidney cancer burden gradually increased in China, and it will continue to rise in the next decade, which reveals more targeted intervention measures are necessary.

Editors' Selections from Relevant Scientific Publications

Editors' Selections from Relevant Scientific Publications

Progress and remaining challenges for cancer control in the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Cancer is a growing global health-care problem, especially in under-resourced countries. Cancer prevalence in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is projected to increase, potentially leading to a major burden on the economy. Policy makers in GCC countries have invested in the development of National Cancer Control Strategies to address the current and future burden of cancer through different initiatives and policies for prevention, early detection, and management of cancer. These strategies include capacity building, health education, and global partnerships to strengthen health-care systems. The aim of this Review is to highlight the status of cancer control programmes in GCC countries, describe what has been achieved to date, and identify the gaps, with recommendations on how to lower the burden of cancer in the Gulf region in the future. TRANSLATION: For the Arabic translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.