Future Disease Burden Research Articles

The global, regional, and national patterns of change in the burden of congenital birth defects, 1990–2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021 and forecast to 2040

Congenital birth defects (CBDs) present enormous challenges to global healthcare systems. These conditions severely impact patients' health and underscore issues related to socioeconomic development and healthcare accessibility and efficiency. Previous studies have been geographically limited and lacked comprehensive global analysis. This study provides global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data for four major congenital birth defects-congenital heart defects (CHD), neural tube defects (NTDs), digestive congenital anomalies (DCAs), and Down syndrome (DS) from 1990 to 2021, emphasizing health inequalities. The goal is to offer scientific evidence for optimizing resource allocation, focusing on high-burden populations, and reducing disease burden. This study systematically evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of CBDs and their changes from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. To conduct a more focused analysis, four specific CBDs were selected: CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS. DALYs were used as the metric, combined with the sociodemographic index (SDI). Analyses included the slope index of inequality and concentration index to measure health inequalities, frontier analysis to estimate achievable outcomes based on development levels, decomposition analysis to identify drivers of disease burden changes, Joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal trends, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict future disease burden trends. Compared to 1990, the global burden of the CBDs in 2021 showed a downward trend. Males had a higher burden than females, with the highest burden observed in low-SDI regions. When examining CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS specifically, trends in burden changes varied across different CBDs at the global, regional, and national levels. Frontier analysis revealed potential for burden improvement in various countries and territories. Decomposition analysis highlighted differences in disease burden drivers across SDI regions, showing the greatest improvement observed in low-SDI regions. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a downward trend in DALYs burden across SDI regions, and BAPC model predictions suggested that the burden of CBDs will continue to decline in the future. CBDs pose a major challenge to global public health. Despite an overall decline in disease burden, health inequalities remain prominent, particularly in countries and territories with lower levels of development. Future public health interventions should focus on countries and territories with low levels of development by optimizing healthcare resource allocation, improving basic health infrastructure, enhancing health education, and reducing disease burden inequalities. Global collaboration and data sharing are essential to promote a lifecycle management model for CBDs research and treatment, advancing global health development. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82270310) and the Jiangsu Provincial Key Research and Development Program (No. BE2023662).

Calculating potential impact fractions to assess the impact of tobacco control policies

Abstract This presentation will provide a straightforward and accessible method for evaluating the effectiveness of various tobacco control policies in reducing the smoking-associated disease burden. To estimate numbers and proportions of potentially avoidable disease cases under different policy intervention scenarios (such as cigarette tax/price increases, comprehensive marketing ban, and plain packaging), this approach entails the calculation of age- and sex-specific potential impact fractions, representing the percentage change in disease risk following changes in exposure to smoking. The approach can account for lag and latency periods between reductions in smoking prevalence and declines in disease excess risks. The future disease burden is estimated by combining data on the incidence or mortality of the disease of interest, published effect sizes of tobacco control policies, and national smoking prevalence data. Intervention scenarios are compared against a status quo scenario that assumes the continuation of recent smoking trends. The presentation will outline the approach, using the example of smoking-associated cancer, and discuss model assumptions, required data, and sensitivity analyses. This straightforward modelling framework enables the comparison of different health policy measures’ impacts, providing valuable insights for policymakers and public health officials regarding the potential public health impact of tobacco control policy measures.

Headache disorders: a persistent public health challenge for the under 50s.

Currently, neurological diseases has surpassed cardiovascular diseases as the primary cause of global disease burden. Among these, headache disorders are the most prevalent and have emerged as the main cause of disability in people under 50 years old in recent years. Since the release of GBD 2021, there has been no comprehensive systematic exposition on the burden of headache among individuals under 50 years old and a forecast for future burdens. This study aims to quantify the global, regional, and national burden of headache disorders among people under 50 from 1992 to 2021 and to predict future trends in order to provide policy makers with precise and effective epidemiological evidence. This study extracted the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs data related to headache disorders in the 5-50 age group from the GBD 2021. After age-standardizing the data, we used joinpoint regression analysis and health inequity analysis to analyze the burden and temporal trend of headache disorders and predicted the future disease burden and changes based on the age-period-cohort model. By 2021, the case number of global incidence, prevalence and DALYs have increased by 35, 39, and 41%, respectively, over the past 30 years. The incidence and prevalence of tension-type headache (TTH) are significantly higher than those of migraine, but migraine causes greater health burdens. The burden is higher for female than for male. In terms of age, youth aged 25-29 years had the highest incidence in 2021, with an age-standardized rate (ASR) of 13,454.64 (95%CI, 9,546.96-18,361.36) per 100,000 population. Nationally, the highest ASR of incidence and prevalence are found in Norway, and the most damaging to health is found in Belgium. Among the five sociodemographic index (SDI) categories, the middle SDI has the highest number of cases (190 million in 2021). It is worth noting that the forecast shows that by 2046 the three indicators will reach 680 million, 2.33 billion, and 41 million, respectively, indicating that the burden of headache disorders in this age group will continue to persist. Globally, the burden of headache disorders in people under 50 years of age remains significant and has not improved over the past 30 years, especially in regions with high SDI. Headache problems will continue to pose a serious public health challenge for this age group for some time to come. This study reveals the burden and distribution of headache disorders in this age group, providing important basis for governments and policymakers to accurately and effectively allocate health care resources, strengthen prevention and management strategies, and respond to this global health problem.

Trend and forecast analysis of the changing disease burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to high fasting glucose in China, 1990-2021.

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a malignant tumour with poor prognosis and high mortality, and high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is considered to be one of its important risk factors. PC disease burden data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Annual percent change (APC), average APC (AAPC), and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were analysed using joinpoint linkpoint regression models to assess the trend of PC burden of disease between 1990 and 2021. An age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on PC burden, and data on PC mortality attributable to HFPG in China from 2022 to 2032 were analysed on the basis of a Bayesian age-period-cohort model projection. The number of Pc deaths due to HFPG continue to rise in China from 1990 to 2021, with age-standardised mortality (ASMR) and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-year rates with increasing AAPC values of 1.12% (95% CI, 0.73-1.52) and 1.00% (95% CI, 0.63-1.37), respectively. Throughout the study, we found that the overall level of PC disease burden was significantly higher in men than that in women. In age-period-cohort analyses, the age effect of PC showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, the period effect showed an overall increasing trend during the study period, and the cohort effect showed an overall slow decreasing trend. In addition, the BAPC model predicted that ASMR is expected to decline significantly in both men and women from 2022 to 2032. It was found that PC attributable to HFPG was generally on the rise in China from 1990 to 2021 and has been on the decline in recent years, and projections suggest that the country's future PC disease burden will continue to show a downward trend. Age and period of birth are the main factors affecting the disease burden, especially in men and older age groups. Early prevention, regular screening, and research into the pathogenesis of PC have, therefore, become particularly important.

Sustainability Synergies Between Energy Access and Energy Policy For the Reduction of Future Global Burden of Coronary Heart Disease

Sustainability Synergies Between Energy Access and Energy Policy For the Reduction of Future Global Burden of Coronary Heart Disease

Bullying Victimization Among Finnish Adolescents and Primary Health Care Visits Mediated by Depression: A Five-Year Follow-Up Study

ABSTRACT This study investigated firstly whether bullying victimization was associated with primary health care (PHC) visits due to mental health (MH) problems and secondly whether bullying victimization among adolescent and PHC visits was mediated by depressive and dissociative symptoms. A five-year follow-up data was collected from the sample of N = 669 Finnish adolescents (boys N = 179, (26.8%), girls N = 490, (73.2%)). Generalized linear models showed a significant association between bullying victimization among adolescents and PHC visits due to MH problems. Depressive, but not dissociative symptoms at the baseline mediated the above-mentioned association. Depressive symptoms mediated the association between bullying victimization and mental health services use among adolescents. Interventions for bullying victimization and psychological problems are needed to prevent the future disease burden it may bring to Finland regarding the use of mental health services.

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in China, 1990-2019, and predictions to 2030: Outlook for the future burden of disease.

The aim of this study was to analyze the trend of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2019, along with assessing the effects of age, period, and cohort, as well as to predict future trends. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 we calculated the estimated annual percentage changes in the incidence and mortality of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to assess the independent effects of these elements. Incidence and mortality until 2030 were predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach. During 1990-2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Strong effects of birth cohort and period on non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality were observed. In terms of prediction, future non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality in China will continue to increase, while the mortality rate will decrease; for women, both the rates are projected to rise, but they will remain lower than men. Currently, the non-Hodgkin's lymphoma burden is high in China, and it is expected to continue increasing in the future. Policymakers need to prioritize addressing the factors contributing to sex differences in disease burden, including variations in environmental exposures and lifestyles among men and women.

Differences in cancer rates among adults born between 1920 and 1990 in the USA: an analysis of population-based cancer registry data

Trends in cancer incidence in recent birth cohorts largely reflect changes in exposures during early life and foreshadow the future disease burden. Herein, we examined cancer incidence and mortality trends, by birth cohort, for 34 types of cancer in the USA. In this analysis, we obtained incidence data for 34 types of cancer and mortality data for 25 types of cancer for individuals aged 25-84 years for the period Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2019 from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and the US National Center for Health Statistics, respectively. We calculated birth cohort-specific incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and mortality rate ratios (MRRs), adjusted for age and period effects, by nominal birth cohort, separated by 5 year intervals, from 1920 to 1990. We extracted data for 23 654 000 patients diagnosed with 34 types of cancer and 7 348 137 deaths from 25 cancers for the period Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2019. We found that IRRs increased with each successive birth cohort born since approximately 1920 for eight of 34 cancers (pcohort<0·050). Notably, the incidence rate was approximately two-to-three times higher in the 1990 birth cohort than in the 1955 birth cohort for small intestine (IRR 3·56 [95% CI 2·96-4·27]), kidney and renal pelvis (2·92 [2·50-3·42]), and pancreatic (2·61 [2·22-3·07]) cancers in both male and female individuals; and for liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in female individuals (2·05 [1·23-3·44]). Additionally, the IRRs increased in younger cohorts, after a decline in older birth cohorts, for nine of the remaining cancers (pcohort<0·050): oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer, uterine corpus cancer, colorectal cancer, non-cardia gastric cancer, gallbladder and other biliary cancer, ovarian cancer, testicular cancer, anal cancer in male individuals, and Kaposi sarcoma in male individuals. Across cancer types, the incidence rate in the 1990 birth cohort ranged from 12% (IRR1990 vs 1975 1·12 [95% CI 1·03-1·21] for ovarian cancer) to 169% (IRR1990 vs 1930 2·69 [2·34-3·08] for uterine corpus cancer) higher than the rate in the birth cohort with the lowest incidence rate. The MRRs increased in successively younger birth cohorts alongside IRRs for liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in female individuals, uterine corpus, gallbladder and other biliary, testicular, and colorectal cancers, while MRRs declined or stabilised in younger birth cohorts for most cancers types. 17 of 34 cancers had an increasing incidence in younger birth cohorts, including nine that previously had declining incidence in older birth cohorts. These findings add to growing evidence of increased cancer risk in younger generations, highlighting the need to identify and tackle underlying risk factors. American Cancer Society.

What We (Don't) Know about the Infectious Disease Burden Among Youth Experiencing Homelessness in the United States and Canada.

Youth experiencing homelessness (YEH) and sexual and gender minority (SGM) YEH may be at increased risk for infectious diseases due to living arrangements, risk behaviors, and barriers to healthcare access that are dissimilar to those of housed youth and older adults experiencing homelessness. To better understand infectious diseases among YEH populations, we synthesized findings from 12 peer-reviewed articles published between 2012 to 2020 which enumerated YEH or SGM YEH infectious disease burden in locations across the U.S. or Canada. Pathogens presented in the studies were limited to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and bloodborne infections (BBI). Only three studies enumerated infectious diseases among SGM YEH. There was a dearth of comparison data by housing status (ex., sheltered versus unsheltered youth), SGM identity, or other relevant counterfactual groups in the identified studies. We also introduce three publicly available, national-level surveillance datasets from the U.S. or Canada that quantify certain STIs, BBIs, and tuberculosis among YEH, which may be used for future disease burden assessments. Our review calls for more comprehensive YEH-centered research that includes multimodal data collection and timely disease surveillance to improve estimates of infectious diseases among this vulnerable population.

P-011 Maternal gestational methyl donor deficiency affects reproductive development and fertility of mice offspring

Abstract Study question Is maternal methyl donor deficiency during gestation affects offspring’s reproductive health at adulthood? Summary answer Maternal gestational methyl donor deficiency affects reproductive development and fertility of F1 offspring and also leads to increased post implantation loss What is known already Reproductive disorders and their exact mechanisms are scarce in “The developmental origins of health and disease” (DOHaD) hypothesis which well explains the metabolic complications such as obesity, type 2 diabetes and hypertension that may take root during early development. The maternal nutritional environment during early development has important implications on offspring’s health later in life including reproductive health. The gestational period is of critical importance during which major epigenetic reprogramming occurs. The maternal methyl donor deficiency during gestational period may affect this process and epigenetic signatures of developing gametes and the fertility potential Study design, size, duration Pregnant female OCT4-GFP mice, fed on control chow diet (CCD) &amp; 40% methyl-donors (Folate, Methionine &amp; Vitamin B12) deficient diet (MDD) from gestation day (GD) 5 to GD 20. The gonadal development of F1 offsprings was studied on gestation day GD 18, post-natal day (PND) 22 and PND 60. Fertility study was done by mating adult F1 male offspring with adult female mice fed on standard diet Participants/materials, setting, methods Homocysteine levels in dams (F0) at GD18 were estimated by ELISA. Testosterone levels in F1 offsprings at PND 60 were estimated by ELISA. Furthermore, Serum glucose levels in F1 offsprings were measured at PND 60 and PND 75 by glucometer. Testicular histology, quantitative histomorphometry, immunofluorescence and TUNEL assay was performed at PND 60. Main results and the role of chance Fetal weight was reduced at GD13 and GD18 but postnatal body weight at PND 22 and 60 was not significantly affected in MDD group. Teratological defects were observed in pups of 40% MDD group as compared to CDD. Testosterone levels were significantly reduced in F1 offsprings of 40% MDD group. Glucose levels were similar in both the groups at PND 60 but at PND 75 it is significantly higher in case of F1 offsprings of 40% MDD. Maternal serum homocysteine levels and global DNA methylation levels of fetal gonads were affected. Testicular histology was significantly impaired in 40% MDD group at GD18, PND22 and PND60. Quantitative histomorphometry and immunofluorescence study showed the loss of spermatogonia and spermatocytes with significant increase in germ cells sloughing and seminiferous tubules atrophy. Apoptosis is also observed in seminiferous tubules. Copulation index, sperm count and motility was significantly reduced in case of 40% MDD group at adulthood. The F1 offspring of this group were sub-fertile with significant post implantation loss. Limitations, reasons for caution Although mice share ∼90% genome with humans, they may not resemble all aspect of physiology or pathology in humans hence it could limit the findings to extrapolate to humans. Wider implications of the findings The knowledge gained from this work could be helpful in highlighting the need of gestational micronutrient interventions specially methyl donors, which could help improving maternal and child health as well as reducing the future disease burden of reproductive disorders Trial registration number not applicable

Environmental Impacts on Cardiovascular Health and Biology: An Overview.

Environmental stressors associated with human activities (eg, air and noise pollution, light disturbance at night) and climate change (eg, heat, wildfires, extreme weather events) are increasingly recognized as contributing to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. These harmful exposures have been shown to elicit changes in stress responses, circadian rhythms, immune cell activation, and oxidative stress, as well as traditional cardiovascular risk factors (eg, hypertension, diabetes, obesity) that promote cardiovascular diseases. In this overview, we summarize evidence from human and animal studies of the impacts of environmental exposures and climate change on cardiovascular health. In addition, we discuss strategies to reduce the impact of environmental risk factors on current and future cardiovascular disease burden, including urban planning, personal monitoring, and mitigation measures.

Modeling chronic disease risk across equity factors using a population-based prediction model: the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT)

BackgroundPredicting chronic disease incidence at a population level can help inform overall future chronic disease burden and opportunities for prevention. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of chronic...

Evaluation of Osteoarthritis Disease Burden in China During 1990-2019 and Forecasting Its Trend Over the Future 25 Years.

This study aimed to estimate the temporal trend of osteoarthritis (OA) burden in China by age, sex, and joint sites from 1990 to 2019 and predict the long-term trend over the next 25 years. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we estimated incident cases, prevalent cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of OA, and DALYs of OA attributed to high body mass index (BMI), as well as corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) for aforementioned indicies. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Nordpred age-period-cohort model were used to describe temporal trend changes and predict future disease burden. From 1990 to 2019, the ASR of OA incidence increased from 472.53 per 100,000 to 509.84 per 100,000 people (EAPC: 0.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.44); the ASR of OA prevalence increased from 5,880.58 per 100,000 to 6,330.06 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.35, 95% CI 0.28-0.42); the ASR of OA DALYs increased from 206.38 per 100,000 to 224.78 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.40, 95% CI 0.32-0.48). The ASR of OA DALYs attributed to high BMI increased rapidly, especially in men and patients with hip OA. Projections suggest an increasing trend in the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of OA from 2019 to 2044, with the prevalent cases and DALYs of OA in China expected to increase by approximately 1.5 times over the next 25 years. The disease burden of OA has increased in China over the past 30 years and is expected to continue rising over the next 25 years.

Climate factors associated with cancer incidence: An ecological study covering 33 cancers from population-based registries in 37 countries

Cancer etiology is multifactorial, with climate change and environmental factors such as extreme weather events and ozone layer destruction potentially increasing cancer risk. Investigating climate factors with cancer incidence can provide valuable insights for prevention and future disease burden prediction. We conducted a population-based ecological study using data from the World Health Organization’s Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus, 89 cancer registries from 1998 to 2012) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER, 607 US counties from 2000 to 2018) Program. We tracked climate factors through satellite-based remote sensing, including green space, stratospheric ozone concentration, solar radiation, precipitation, and temperature. We performed linear panel regression models to estimate the effects of both long-term exposure, lag effect, and change rate of climate factors on cancer incidences. We adjusted for smoking prevalence, air pollution, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita to account for potential confounding factors. Our study included more than 430 million underlying populations across 37 countries. Higher green space exposure (per 0.1-unit normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) was associated with decreased incidence of lung cancer (up to 6.66 cases [95%CI 4.38–8.93] per 100,000) and prostate cancer (up to 10.84 cases [95% CI 7.73–13.95] per 100,000). Increased solar radiation was associated with a higher incidence of melanoma, but a lower incidence of prostate cancer. No evidence was found to suggest associations between temperature or precipitation and cancer incidence. However, a rapid increase in temperature was linked to higher incidences of corpus uteri cancer and melanoma. Long-term exposure and rapid changes in climate factors may influence changes in cancer incidence, particularly lung and prostate cancers. While some associations were supported by existing evidence (such as solar radiation and melanoma), further research is necessary to investigate the etiology of novel cancer risk factors.

Effect of ambient ozone pollution on disease burden globally: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

BackgroundExposure to ambient ozone pollution causes health loss and even death, and both are the main risk factors for the disease burden worldwide. We comprehensively evaluated the ozone pollution-related disease burden. MethodsFirst, numbers and age-standardized rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were assessed globally and by sub-types in 2019. Furthermore, the temporal trend of the disease burden was explored by the linear regression model from 1990 to 2019. The cluster analysis was used to evaluate the changing pattern of related disease burden across Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) regions. Finally, the age-period-cohort (APC) model and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were used to predict the future disease burden in the next 25 years. ResultExposure to ozone pollution contributed to 365,222 deaths and 6,210,145 DALYs globally in 2019, which accounted for 0.65 % of deaths globally and 0.24 % of DALYs globally. The disease burden was consistently increasing with age. Males were high-risk populations and low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions were high-risk areas. The disease burden of ozone pollution varied considerably across the GBD regions and the countries. In 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs cases increased by 76.11 % and 56.37 %, respectively compared to those in 1990. The predicted results showed that the number of deaths cases and DALYs cases for both genders would still increase from 2020 to 2044. ConclusionIn conclusion, ambient ozone pollution has threatened public health globally. More proactive and effective strategic measures should be developed after considering global-specific circumstances.

Impact of Demographic Developments and PCV13 Vaccination on the Future Burden of Pneumococcal Diseases in Germany—An Integrated Probabilistic Differential Equation Approach

Streptococcus pneumonia is the primary cause of morbidity and mortality in infants and children globally. Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence is affected by various risk factors such as age and comorbidities. Additionally, this bacterium is a major cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), leading to higher rates of hospitalization, especially among older adults. Vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has proven effective, but the demographic transition in Germany poses a challenge. This study introduces a novel stochastic approach by integrating a population forecast model into a transmission dynamic model to investigate the future burden of pneumococcal diseases in three age groups (0–4, 5–59, and 60 and older). Our simulations, presented through mean predictions and 75% prediction intervals, indicate that implementing PCV13 (13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine) until the year 2050 results in reduced cases of IPD and CAP in all age groups compared to scenarios without infant vaccination. However, cases with non-vaccine serotypes may persist at higher levels compared to scenarios without infant vaccination. Consequently, there may be a need for improvement in the current national vaccine policy, such as implementing the use of higher-valent PCVs and strengthening adult vaccination uptake.

Gender differences in use of cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco products among adolescents aged 13-15 years in 20 African countries.

Examining gender differences in youth tobacco use is important as it aligns tobacco control within the context of broader human development goals seeking to eliminate gender inequalities. In this study, we examined gender differences in adolescent use of cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, shisha, and e-cigarettes in Africa. This was a cross-sectional study using data from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey. Our analytical sample comprised 56442 adolescents aged 13-15 years from 20 African countries. Weighted, country-specific prevalence estimates were computed overall and by gender. Adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs) were calculated in a multivariable Poisson regression model to examine whether correlates of tobacco use differed between boys and girls. Ever cigarette smoking prevalence was significantly higher among boys than girls in 16 of the 20 countries, but a significantly higher percentage of girls reported earlier age of cigarette smoking initiation than boys within pooled analysis. Some of the largest gender differences in current cigarette smoking were seen in Algeria (12.2% vs 0.8%, boys and girls, respectively), Mauritius (21.2% vs 6.6%), and Madagascar (15.0% vs 4.1%). Current use of e-cigarettes, shisha, and smokeless tobacco was generally comparable between boys and girls where data existed. Among girls, higher levels of reported exposure to tobacco advertisement were positively associated with shisha smoking whereas perceived tobacco harm was inversely associated with current cigarette and shisha smoking. Among boys, perceived social acceptability of smoking at parties was associated with an increased likelihood of cigarette smoking (APR=2.27; 95% Cl: 1.20-4.30). The prevalence of cigarette smoking among boys was higher than that of girls in many countries. However, girls who smoke tend to start at an earlier age than boys. Differential gender patterns of cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco product use among youth may have implications for future disease burden. As the tobacco control landscape evolves, tobacco prevention efforts should focus on all tobacco products, not just cigarettes.

Forecasting the future prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in Korea through 2048: an epidemiologic study employing autoregressive integrated moving average models.

The global inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) escalation has precipitated an increased disease burden and economic impact, particularly in Asia. This study primarily aimed to predict the future prevalence of IBD in Korea and elucidate its evolution pattern. Using a validated diagnostic algorithm, we analyzed data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service between 2004 and 2017 to identify patients with IBD. We predicted the number and prevalence of patients with IBD from 2018 to 2048 with the autoregressive integrated moving average method. A generalized linear model (GLM) was also employed to identify factors contributing to the observed trend in IBD prevalence. Our prediction model validation demonstrated an acceptable error range for IBD prevalence, with a 2.45% error rate and a mean absolute difference of 2.61. We foresee a sustained average annual increase of 4.51 IBD cases per 100 000, culminating in a prevalence of 239.73 per 100 000 by 2048. The forecasted average annual percent change was 6.17% for males and 2.75% for females over the next 30years. The GLM analysis revealed that age, gender and time significantly impact the prevalence of IBD, with notable disparities observed between genders in specific age groups for both Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis (all interaction P<0.05). Our study forecasts a notable increase in Korean IBD prevalence by 2048, particularly among males and the 20-39 age group, highlighting the need to focus on these high-risk groups to mitigate the future disease burden.

Post COVID shift in BMI with special reference to dietary and behavioural pattern among adolescents: a school based study

Background: Covid-19 was a life altering pandemic leading to children getting restricted indoors with online education. This led to a change in dietary and socio-behavioral pattern. Aim were to assess change in post-Covid BMI in comparison to pre-Covid BMI among adolescents and to determine post-Covid dietary and sleeping habits, screen time, physical activity, psycho-behavioral pattern using a structured questionnaire. Methods: This study was conducted among 108 adolescent and mother dyads studying in a higher secondary school, during November 2022 to March 2023 using a pre-structured questionnaire. Anthropometry measurements were taken and compared with pre-Covid data available in the medical records. Using SPSS 21, analysis was done and association determined using Chi square test (p&lt;0.05 significant). Results: M:F ratio was 1:0.9. Among dietary pattern compared to pre-Covid 54.6% had increase quantity of food intake, of which 83.05% had increase consumption of JUNCS. 68.5% reported disturbances in sleep pattern. Increase in screen time for non-academic is 74% and 51.9% for academic purposes. 49% preferred leisure activity, 25% preferred moderate and 25.9% preferred vigorous physical activity. 60.1% experienced signs of anxiety. On comparison of pre and post-Covid BMI showed that there was an increase in overweight from 22.2% to 37.9% and obesity from 2.8% to 6.5% and was statistically significant. Conclusions: There were significant changes in the lifestyle pattern with a double fold increase in overweight and obesity in the post-Covid assessment. This is an eyeopener regarding future burden of non-communicable disease and a warning to impart healthy lifestyle.

Temporal trends of migraine and tension-type headache burden across the BRICS: implications from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

Headache disorders have become a significant global public health issue, with a notably high prevalence observed in developing countries. However, few studies have assessed headache disorders trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). This study aimed to assess the prevalence of headache disorders in individuals across the BRICS, spanning the years 1990 to 2019. We obtained headache disorders data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (GBD2019). This evaluation examined incidence rates, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for migraine and tension-type headache (TTH) across demographic factors like age, gender, year, and country. Migraine and TTH were diagnosed based on the International Classification of Headache Disorders (ICHD-3) criteria. We used disease codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision to identify migraine and TTH cases. Statistical analyzes included calculating age-standardized rates and estimated annual percentage changes. Future disease burden was projected using a log-linear age-period-cohort model. In 2019, India had the highest prevalence of migraine (213890207.93 cases) and TTH (374,453,700 cases). Brazil had the highest migraine age-standardized prevalence rate (18,331 per 100,000) and incidence rate (1,489 per 100,000). For TTH, India had the highest prevalence (26,160 per 100,000) while Russia had the highest incidence (11,512 per 100,000). From 1990 to 2019, China showed the greatest increase in migraine and TTH prevalence. India had the highest migraine (7,687,692) and TTH (741,392) DALYs in 2019. Migraine and TTH remain highly prevalent in BRICS nations, inflicting considerable disability burden. While India and China face mounting disease prevalence, Brazil contends with high incidence rates. Tailored interventions based on country-specific epidemiological profiles are warranted to mitigate the public health impact.