Future Biomass Production Research Articles

Farmers’ willingness to introduce short-rotation tree plantations on agricultural land: A case study in southern Sweden

To meet climate targets, expanding Populus spp. tree cultivation is proposed as a potential biomass feedstock, especially on agricultural land that does not come into conflict with food production. However, biomass potential assessments typically overlook landowners' perspectives, risking a gap between theoretical potentials and realisation. Here, we test empirical consequences of two hypotheses based on a survey targeting southern Swedish farmers: 1) Relying exclusively on agricultural land cover data to identify abandoned agricultural land leads to an overestimation of the total agricultural land that can be utilised for future biomass production from Populus spp. feedstocks. 2) The absence of data on farmers' intentions to cultivate fast-growing tree species on agricultural land leads to overestimation of the potential biomass supply from Populus spp. in biomass assessments. Findings suggest that less than 50 % of farmers with unsubsidised arable land, which is often assumed to be abandoned, would consider cultivating these tree species on this type of land (26 % [7–48]). Furthermore, only 11 % [6–17] would consider cultivating Populus spp. on agricultural land overall during 2021–2030, indicating a generally low level of interest among farmers. However, higher rates were observed in forested areas. The projected near-future cultivation potential of 2.0 kha [1.1–3.0] suggests an at least threefold overestimation in previous theoretical assessments. This study highlights a disparity between biophysical land data and producer perspectives, showing that neglecting farmers’ perspectives risks overestimating the biomass supply, potentially leading to misguided expectations and inefficient policies. Our findings support targeted policy recommendations.

Pervasive soil phosphorus losses in terrestrial ecosystems in China

AbstractFuture phosphorus (P) shortages could seriously affect terrestrial productivity and food security. We investigated the changes in topsoil available P (AP) and total P (TP) in China's forests, grasslands, paddy fields, and upland croplands during the 1980s–2010s based on substantial repeated soil P measurements (63,220 samples in the 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s) and machine learning techniques. Between the 1980s and 2010s, total soil AP stock increased with a small but significant rate of 0.13 kg P ha−1 year−1, but total soil TP stock declined substantially (4.5 kg P ha−1 year−1) in the four ecosystems. We quantified the P budgets of soil–plant systems by harmonizing P fluxes from various sources for this period. Matching trends of soil contents over the decades with P budgets and fluxes, we found that the P‐surplus in cultivated soils (especially in upland croplands) might be overestimated due to the great soil TP pool compared to fertilization and the substantial soil P losses through plant uptake and water erosion that offset the P additions. Our findings of P‐deficit in China raise the alarm on the sustainability of future biomass production (especially in forests), highlight the urgency of P recycling in croplands, and emphasize the critical role of country‐level basic data in guiding sound policies to tackle the global P crises.

Temperature impacts on fish physiology and resource abundance lead to faster growth but smaller fish sizes and yields under warming.

Resolving the combined effect of climate warming and exploitation in a food web context is key for predicting future biomass production, size-structure and potential yields of marine fishes. Previous studies based on mechanistic size-based food web models have found that bottom-up processes are important drivers of size-structure and fisheries yield in changing climates. However, we know less about the joint effects of 'bottom-up' and physiological effects of temperature; how do temperature effects propagate from individual-level physiology through food webs and alter the size-structure of exploited species in a community? Here, we assess how a species-resolved size-based food web is affected by warming through both these pathways and by exploitation. We parameterize a dynamic size spectrum food web model inspired by the offshore Baltic Sea food web, and investigate how individual growth rates, size-structure, and relative abundances of species and yields are affected by warming. The magnitude of warming is based on projections by the regional coupled model system RCA4-NEMO and the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and we evaluate different scenarios of temperature dependence on fish physiology and resource productivity. When accounting for temperature-effects on physiology in addition to on basal productivity, projected size-at-age in 2050 increases on average for all fish species, mainly for young fish, compared to scenarios without warming. In contrast, size-at-age decreases when temperature affects resource dynamics only, and the decline is largest for young fish. Faster growth rates due to warming, however, do not always translate to larger yields, as lower resource carrying capacities with increasing temperature tend to result in decline in the abundance of larger fish and hence spawning stock biomass. These results suggest that to understand how global warming affects the size structure of fish communities, both direct metabolic effects and indirect effects of temperature via basal resources must be accounted for.

On the role of forests and the forest sector for climate change mitigation in Sweden

AbstractWe analyse the short‐ and long‐term consequences for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations of forest management strategies and forest product uses in Sweden by comparing the modelled consequences of forest resource use vs. increased conservation at different levels of GHG savings from carbon sequestration and product substitution with bioenergy and other forest products. Increased forest set‐asides for conservation resulted in larger GHG reductions only in the short term and only when substitution effects were low. In all other cases, forest use was more beneficial. In all scenarios, annual carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration rates declined in conservation forests as they mature, eventually approaching a steady state. Forest set‐asides are thus associated with increasing opportunity costs corresponding to foregone wood production and associated mitigation losses. Substitution and sequestration rates under all other forest management strategies rise, providing support for sustained harvest and cumulative mitigation gains. The impact of increased fertilization was everywhere beneficial to the climate and surpassed the mitigation potential of the other scenarios. Climate change can have large—positive or negative—influence on outcomes. Despite uncertainties, the results indicate potentially large benefits from forest use for wood production. These benefits, however, are not clearly linked with forestry in UNFCCC reporting, and the European Union's Land Use, Land‐Use Change and Forestry carbon accounting, framework may even prevent their full realization. These reporting and accounting frameworks may further have the consequence of encouraging land set‐asides and reduced forest use at the expense of future biomass production. Further, carbon leakage and resulting biodiversity impacts due to increased use of more GHG‐intensive products, including imported products associated with deforestation and land degradation, are inadequately assessed. Considerable opportunity to better mobilize the climate change mitigation potential of Swedish forests therefore remains.

Climatic impact, future biomass production, and local adaptation of four switchgrass cultivars

AbstractPrevious studies have shown that switchgrass has a wide range of genetic variation and that productivity is linked to local adaptation to the location of origin for many cultivars. In this meta‐analysis, we compiled and analyzed 900 observations associated with 41 field trials for four switchgrass cultivars (two lowlands, Alamo and Kanlow, and two uplands, Cave‐In‐Rock and Shelter). This extensive dataset and machine learning were used to identify the most influential variables impacting switchgrass productivity, to search for evidence of local adaptation to each cultivar's location of origin, and to predict change in productivity under future climate for each cultivar. In general, variables associated with climate and management are more important predictors of productivity relative to soil variables. Three climatic variables, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the wettest month, are identified as key environmental variables for productivity of all cultivars. Productivity under future climate (2041–2060) is predicted to stay stable for all cultivars relative to the prediction under current climate (1986–2005) across all trial locations and over a 20‐year simulation period. However, the productivity of each cultivar varies from location to location and from year to year, although productivity varies more between locations than between years. Additionally, we observe shifts in the most productive cultivar at the local field scale depending on the combination of management practice and climates. The shape of the relationship between productivity and the annual mean temperature relative to the cultivar's location of origin is a bell‐shaped curve for Kanlow, Cave‐in‐Rock, and Shelter, indicative of local adaptation. Identifying influential environmental variables and their relationships to productivity with respect to cultivar's location of origin help predicting productivity on the local field scale, and will help with the biofuel production planning through the selection of suitable cultivars for different locations under climate changes.

A county‐level estimation of renewable surface water and groundwater availability associated with potential large‐scale bioenergy feedstock production scenarios in the United States

AbstractThis study examines fresh renewable water resources available for bioenergy feedstock production in the United States. The impacts of feedstock irrigation on surface and groundwater resources available to nonbioenergy sectors were quantified using a pair of water availability indexes: streamflow availability index and percolation flow availability index. The two metrics were applied to both historical (2008) and three possible future biomass production scenarios from the 2016 U.S. Billion‐Ton Report at the county level. For both historical and future scenarios, we found that the consumptive irrigation requirements for bioenergy feedstock account for <0.01% of annual streamflow in all but three counties in Nebraska. Results suggest that the irrigation demand of future biomass production could be supplied by annual renewable groundwater flow in about 94% of feedstock‐growing counties that use groundwater for irrigation, representing about 92% of production tonnage. Counties that require irrigation from nonrenewable groundwater resources are mostly located in the Northern Plains and Pacific regions. We also evaluated the sensitivity of crop water footprint estimation to soil moisture carryover by comparing blue water estimates from six different empirical and process‐based methods. Our findings suggest that accounting for preseason soil moisture is critical for representative blue water estimation, so that the irrigation water consumption is not overestimated. This is especially true in the Corn Belt region, where blue water estimates with and without preseason soil moisture would be about 1.9 versus 45.5 billion m3/year under the historical scenario. This difference is smaller in semiarid regions like the High Plains, but the blue water estimate can still triple if soil moisture is not considered. From the perspective of renewable surface water and groundwater resources, scaling feedstock production up in the High Plains and California will require careful planning integrated with water management strategies to improve water resource conservation.

Reduced Summer Aboveground Productivity in Temperate C3 Grasslands Under Future Climate Regimes

AbstractTemperate grasslands play globally an important role, for example, for biodiversity conservation, livestock forage production, and carbon storage. The latter two are primarily controlled by biomass production, which is assumed to decrease with lower amounts and higher variability of precipitation, while increasing air temperature might either foster or suppress biomass production. Additionally, a higher atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) is supposed to increase biomass productivity either by directly stimulating photosynthesis or indirectly by inducing water savings (CO2 fertilization effect). Consequently, future biomass productivity is controlled by the partially contrasting effects of changing climatic conditions and [CO2], which to date are only marginally understood. This results in high uncertainties of future biomass production and carbon storage estimates. Consequently, this study aims at statistically estimating mid‐21st century grassland aboveground biomass (AGB) based on 18 years of data (1998–2015) from a free air carbon enrichment experiment. We found that lower precipitation totals and a higher precipitation variability reduced AGB. Under drier conditions accompanied by increasing air temperature, AGB further decreased. Here AGB under elevated [CO2] was partly even lower compared to AGB under ambient [CO2], probably because elevated [CO2] reduced evaporative cooling of plants, increasing heat stress. This indicates a higher susceptibility of AGB to increased air temperature under future atmospheric [CO2]. Since climate models for Central Europe project increasing air temperature and decreasing total summer precipitation associated with an increasing variability, our results suggest that grassland summer AGB will be reduced in the future, contradicting the widely expected positive yield anomalies from increasing [CO2].

Considerations on the future biomass production potential of Iceland, and what role that could have in future fuel supply and carbon balances

ABSTRACTThis study suggests that Iceland may be able to produce sufficient liquid hydrocarbon fuels from biological sources in the future to substitute the Icelandic 2016 consumption of fossil fuels, by using forest products. The authors evaluate a strategy to put forest on up to 35,000 km2 in Iceland to 2050. The preliminary study shows that Iceland could reach climate neutrality around 2050 and be a significant net carbon sequester for the next 250 years. Approximate estimates suggest that the total forest biomass production could reach about 10 million m3yr−1, comprising 3.1 million m3yr−1 of roundwood, 3.1 million m3yr−1 for generic biomass, and about 4.2 million m3yr−1 woody material for biofuel use. This could result in a net annual carbon dioxide sequestration of 2–2.5 mill ton CO2 yr−1 by 2100. The calculations suggest that such an afforestation and land restoration undertaking would be long term profitable in economic terms and that the payback time would be about 2050. The method applied in this study is that of a static mass balance calculations at different time points into the future. Parallel to this work, a full integrated regional forest production model is being developed and will be applied to this issue.

Leaf density-based modelling of phototropic crown dynamics and long-term predictive application to European beech

The landscape of functional–structural tree growth models is divided into small-scale models with a topological architecture, and large-scale models based on a description of crown shape in terms of rigid structures such as empirical crown envelopes. Due to their computational heaviness, the former meet their limits in the simulation of old and large trees, whereas the latter are unable to allow for unrestricted spatial variability and plasticity. This article presents a mechanistic, spatially explicit tree growth model based on the characterisation of the spatial distribution of foliage in terms of the 3D leaf area density. This allows efficient and robust simulations while avoiding the complexity of branch topology and any a priori shape constraints. A key element of our model is the spatial expansion of the crown along the local light gradient or, in an equivalent teleonomic interpretation, in the optimal direction with respect to future biomass production. The calibrated model accurately predicts long-term growth dynamics for 16 stands of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), a species known to be particularly plastic. It generates complex properties in conjunction with crown shape, response to stand density, height dynamics and, in particular, the emergence of the allometric 3/4-rule. Simulation results motivate hypotheses on the weight of phototropism as one driver of the spatial growth of European beech in early and late stages as well as in and off competition.

Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century

The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000–2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.

Risks to global biodiversity from fossil‐fuel production exceed those from biofuel production

AbstractPotential global biodiversity impacts from near‐term gasoline production are compared to biofuel, a renewable liquid transportation fuel expected to substitute for gasoline in the near term (i.e., from now until c. 2030). Petroleum exploration activities are projected to extend across more than 5.8 billion ha of land and ocean worldwide (of which 3.1 billion is on land), much of which is in remote, fragile terrestrial ecosystems or off‐shore oil fields that would remain relatively undisturbed if not for interest in fossil fuel production. Future biomass production for biofuels is projected to fall within 2.0 billion ha of land, most of which is located in areas already impacted by human activities. A comparison of likely fuel‐source areas to the geospatial distribution of species reveals that both energy sources overlap with areas with high species richness and large numbers of threatened species. At the global scale, future petroleum production areas intersect more than double the area and a higher total number of threatened species than future biofuel production. Energy options should be developed to optimize provisioning of ecosystem services while minimizing negative effects, which requires information about potential impacts on critical resources. Energy conservation and identifying and effectively protecting habitats with high‐conservation value are critical first steps toward protecting biodiversity under any fuel production scenario. Published in 2014 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Spatial forecasting of switchgrass productivity under current and future climate change scenarios

Evaluating the potential of alternative energy crops across large geographic regions, as well as over time, is a necessary component to determining if biofuel production is feasible and sustainable in the face of growing production demands and climatic change. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a native perennial herbaceous grass, is a promising candidate for cellulosic feedstock production. In this study, current and future (from 2080 to 2090) productivity is estimated across the central and eastern United States using ALMANAC, a mechanistic model that simulates plant growth over time. The ALMANAC model was parameterized for representative ecotypes of switchgrass. Our results indicate substantial variation in switchgrass productivity both within regions and over time. States along the Gulf Coast, southern Atlantic Coast, and in the East North Central Midwest have the highest current biomass potential. However, these areas also contain critical wetland habitat necessary for the maintenance of biodiversity and agricultural lands necessary for food production. The southern United States is predicted to have the largest decrease in future biomass production. The Great Plains are expected to experience large increases in productivity by 2080-2090 due to climate change. In general, regions where future temperature and precipitation are predicted to increase are also where larger future biomass production is expected. In contrast, regions that show a future decrease in precipitation are associated with smaller future biomass production. Switchgrass appears to be a promising biofuel crop for the central and eastern United States, with local biomass predicted to be high (>10 Mg/ha) for approximately 50% of the area studied for each climate scenario. In order to minimize land conversion and loss of biodiversity, areas that currently have and maintain high productivity under climate change should be targeted for their long-term growth potential.