Future Arctic Warming Research Articles

Simulations of primary and secondary ice production during an Arctic mixed-phase cloud case from the Ny-Ålesund Aerosol Cloud Experiment (NASCENT) campaign

Abstract. The representation of Arctic clouds and their phase distributions, i.e., the amount of ice and supercooled water, influences predictions of future Arctic warming. Therefore, it is essential that cloud phase is correctly captured by models in order to accurately predict the future Arctic climate. Ice crystal formation in clouds happens through ice nucleation (primary ice production) and ice multiplication (secondary ice production). In common weather and climate models, rime splintering is the only secondary ice production process included. In addition, prescribed number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei or cloud droplets and ice-nucleating particles are often overestimated in Arctic environments by standard model configurations. This can lead to a misrepresentation of the phase distribution and precipitation formation in Arctic mixed-phase clouds, with important implications for the Arctic surface energy budget. During the Ny-Ålesund Aerosol Cloud Experiment (NASCENT), a holographic probe mounted on a tethered balloon took in situ measurements of number and mass concentrations of ice crystals and cloud droplets in Svalbard, Norway, during fall 2019 and spring 2020. In this study, we choose one case study from this campaign that shows evidence of strong secondary ice production and use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate it at a high vertical and spatial resolution. We test the performance of different microphysical parametrizations and apply a new state-of-the-art secondary ice parametrization. We find that agreement with observations highly depends on the prescribed cloud condensation nuclei/cloud droplet and ice-nucleating particle concentrations and requires an enhancement of secondary ice production processes. Lowering mass mixing ratio thresholds for rime splintering inside the Morrison microphysics scheme is crucial to enable secondary ice production and thereby match observations for the right reasons. In our case, rime splintering is required to initiate collisional breakup. The simulated contribution from collisional breakup is larger than that from droplet shattering. Simulating ice production correctly for the right reasons is a prerequisite for reliable simulations of Arctic mixed-phase cloud responses to future temperature or aerosol perturbations.

Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6

One of the most dramatic climate responses to future global warming is the near-disappearance of the perennial sea ice cover in the central Arctic Ocean, a phenomenon known as the ice-free summer Arctic. The immediate consequence of an ice-free Arctic would be the surface warming of the central Arctic Ocean, where sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used to be at freezing levels. Through an analysis of climate models participating in the climate model intercomparison project phase-6, this study demonstrates a wide range of responses in the central Arctic SSTs in August–September as a result of the projected ice-free summer Arctic. These responses vary from 0.7 to 8 °C in the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2-4.5), referred to as the ‘middle of the road’ scenario, in which socioeconomic and technological trends do not significantly deviate from historical patterns. The extent of the central Arctic sea surface warming in August–September is found to have a loose correlation with the September sea ice extent (SIE), but a stronger connection to the SIE during spring to early summer (May–July), when incoming shortwave radiation is most intense. In certain climate models, the perennial sea ice cover disappears completely in September, causing central Arctic SSTs to rise by 5 °C–8 °C by the end of the 21st century. This leads to a bimodal distribution of annual SSTs. Further analysis reveals a close relationship between mid-summer SSTs in the central Arctic Ocean and preceding winter sea ice thickness (SIT). This underscores the significance of winter SIT in predicting future Arctic surface warming and marine heatwaves.

Comparison of UKESM1 and CESM2 simulations using the same multi-target stratospheric aerosol injection strategy

Abstract. Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been proposed as a method which could offset some of the adverse effects of global warming. The Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (ARISE-SAI) set of simulations is based on a moderate-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario and employs injection of sulfur dioxide at four off-equatorial locations using a control algorithm which maintains the global-mean surface temperature at 1.5 K above pre-industrial conditions (ARISE-SAI-1.5), as well as the latitudinal gradient and inter-hemispheric difference in surface temperature. This is the first comparison between two models (CESM2 and UKESM1) applying the same multi-target SAI strategy. CESM2 is successful in reaching its temperature targets, but UKESM1 has considerable residual Arctic warming. This occurs because the pattern of temperature change in a climate with SAI is determined by both the structure of the climate forcing (mainly greenhouse gases and stratospheric aerosols) and the climate models' feedbacks, the latter of which favour a strong Arctic amplification of warming in UKESM1. Therefore, research constraining the level of future Arctic warming would also inform any hypothetical SAI deployment strategy which aims to maintain the inter-hemispheric and Equator-to-pole near-surface temperature differences. Furthermore, despite broad agreement in the precipitation response in the extratropics, precipitation changes over tropical land show important inter-model differences, even under greenhouse gas forcing only. In general, this ensemble comparison is the first step in comparing policy-relevant scenarios of SAI and will help in the design of an experimental protocol which both reduces some known negative side effects of SAI and is simple enough to encourage more climate models to participate.

Surface heat transfer changes over Arctic land and sea connected to Arctic warming

AbstractTurbulent heat transfer from surface to atmosphere is important in the atmospheric energy balance over the Arctic, thereby impacting the remarkable warming that occurs in this region. The impact of heat transfer over the Arctic land and sea (approximate Arctic Ocean) on Arctic warming could be distinct, owing to different heat sources and physical processes on the interfaces. This study sought to analyse the heat transfer and changes over the Arctic land and sea and their contributions to those over the entire Arctic, and discuss the connection between the heat transfer changes and Arctic warming based on ERA5 reanalysis. The Arctic surface releases heat to the atmosphere, with an annual average of 4.5 × 1014 W, which is mainly contributed by the Arctic land in summer and sea in winter. From 1979 to 2018, the amount of heat release was found to markedly increase, with an annual trend of 0.94 ± 0.31 W/(m2 decade). A faster increase occurred in summer and was contributed by both the Arctic land and sea. In contrast, a slower increase occurred in winter and was only contributed by the sea. The heat transfer changed heterogeneously over the Arctic land and sea, with three major changes: Northern Russia Increase over northern Russia in summer, Northern Barents Increase over the northern Barents Sea in winter, and Nordic Sea Decrease over the Nordic Sea and northern Greenland Sea in winter. Notably, the heat transfer change over the Arctic land and sea could be connected to Arctic warming, especially the three major changes, based on distinct feedback processes, which could impact future Arctic warming. Overall, the Arctic land and sea play distinct roles in the heat transfer change and connection to Arctic warming, with the land being more important in summer and the sea being more important in winter.

Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

Abstract. Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to -10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of -5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

Invariability of Arctic Top‐of‐Atmosphere Radiative Response to Surface Temperature Changes

AbstractRecent studies have used satellite data to estimate the response of top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes to surface temperature changes in the Arctic. The satellite‐observed radiative response is indicative of Arctic climate sensitivity that determines future Arctic warming. However, it remains ambiguous whether the satellite‐observed radiative response is invariable because the time period covered by satellite data reflects a rapidly changing transient Arctic climate state with considerable sea ice loss. Using NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) observations from 2000 to 2018, this study evaluates the invariability of the radiative response by comparing the radiative response of the high sea ice concentration (SIC) period to that of the low SIC period. The results show that the net radiative response remains approximately unchanged regardless of the SIC (−0.19 ± 0.44 and 0.15 ± 0.16 W m−2 K−1 for high and low SIC periods, respectively). In addition, seven of the 11 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) demonstrated that the modeled radiative responses are stable. The ERA‐interim reanalysis estimates show that regionally confined changes in individual radiative feedbacks such as albedo, lapse rate, water vapor, and clouds do not vary considerably. Consequently, we infer that the radiative response in the Arctic may remain stable even under rapid Arctic climate change. Hence, the Arctic climate sensitivity can be quantified with present satellite observations.

Does Arctic warming reduce preservation of organic matter in Barents Sea sediments?

Over the last few decades, the Barents Sea experienced substantial warming, an expansion of relatively warm Atlantic water and a reduction in sea ice cover. This environmental change forces the entire Barents Sea ecosystem to adapt and restructure and therefore changes in pelagic-benthic coupling, organic matter sedimentation and long-term carbon sequestration are expected. Here we combine new and existing organic and inorganic geochemical surface sediment data from the western Barents Sea and show a clear link between the modern ecosystem structure, sea ice cover and the organic carbon and CaCO3 contents in Barents Sea surface sediments. Furthermore, we discuss the sources of total and reactive iron phases and evaluate the spatial distribution of organic carbon bound to reactive iron. Consistent with a recent global estimate we find that on average 21.0 ± 8.3 per cent of the total organic carbon is associated to reactive iron (fOC-FeR) in Barents Sea surface sediments. The spatial distribution of fOC-FeR, however, seems to be unrelated to sea ice cover, Atlantic water inflow or proximity to land. Future Arctic warming might, therefore, neither increase nor decrease the burial rates of iron-associated organic carbon. However, our results also imply that ongoing sea ice reduction and the associated alteration of vertical carbon fluxes might cause accompanied shifts in the Barents Sea surface sedimentary organic carbon content, which might result in overall reduced carbon sequestration in the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.

Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming

With the trend of amplified warming in the Arctic, we examine the observed and modeled top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative responses to surface air-temperature changes over the Arctic by using TOA energy fluxes from NASA’s CERES observations and those from twelve climate models in CMIP5. Considerable inter-model spreads in the radiative responses suggest that future Arctic warming may be determined by the compensation between the radiative imbalance and poleward energy transport (mainly via transient eddy activities). The poleward energy transport tends to prevent excessive Arctic warming: the transient eddy activities are weakened because of the reduced meridional temperature gradient under polar amplification. However, the models that predict rapid Arctic warming do not realistically simulate the compensation effect. This role of energy compensation in future Arctic warming is found only when the inter-model differences in cloud radiative effects are considered. Thus, the dynamical response can act as a buffer to prevent excessive Arctic warming against the radiative response of 0.11 W m−2 K−1 as measured from satellites, which helps the Arctic climate system retain an Arctic climate sensitivity of 4.61 K. Therefore, if quantitative analyses of the observations identify contribution of atmospheric dynamics and cloud effects to radiative imbalance, the satellite-measured radiative response will be a crucial indicator of future Arctic warming.

Oceanic heat transport into the Arctic under high and low hbox {CO}_2 forcing

Enhanced ocean heat transport into the Arctic is linked to stronger future Arctic warming and polar amplification. To quantify the impact of ocean heat transport on Arctic climate, it is imperative to understand how its magnitude and the associated mechanisms change in other climate states. This paper therefore assesses the ocean heat transport into the Arctic at 70^{circ }hbox {N} for climates forced with a broad range of carbon dioxide concentration levels, ranging from one-fourth to four times modern values. We focused on ocean heat transports through the Arctic entrances (Bering Strait, Canadian Archipelago, and Nordic Seas) and identified relative contributions of volume and temperature to these changes. The results show that ocean heat transport differences across the five climate states are dominated by heat transport changes in the Nordic Seas, although in the warmest climate state heat transport through the Bering Strait plays an almost equally important role. This is primarily caused by changes in horizontal currents owing to anomalous wind responses and to differential advection of thermal anomalies. Changes in sea ice cover play a prominent role by modulating the surface heat fluxes and the impact of wind stresses on ocean currents. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its associated heat transport play a more modest role in the ocean heat transport into the Arctic. The net effect of these changes is that the poleward ocean heat transport at 70^{circ }hbox {N} strongly increases from the coldest climate to the warmest climate state.

Biogeophysical feedback of phytoplankton on Arctic climate. Part II: Arctic warming amplified by interactive chlorophyll under greenhouse warming

It has been shown that the interaction between marine phytoplankton and climate systems may intensify Arctic warming in the future via shortwave heating associated with increased spring chlorophyll bloom. However, the changes of chlorophyll variability and its impact on the Arctic future climate are uncomprehended. Lim et al. (Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4450-6 , 2018a) (Part I) suggested that two nonlinear rectifications of chlorophyll variability play cooling role in present-day climate. In this study, we suggest that the decreased interannual chlorophyll variability may amplify Arctic surface warming (+ 10% in both regions) and sea ice melting (− 13% and − 10%) in Kara-Barents Seas and East Siberian-Chukchi Seas in boreal winter, respectively. Projections of earth system models show a future decrease in chlorophyll both mean concentration and interannual variability via sea ice melting and intensified surface-water stratification in summer. We found that suggested two nonlinear processes in Part I will be reduced by about 31% and 20% in the future, respectively, because the sea ice and chlorophyll variabilities, which control the amplitudes of nonlinear rectifications, are projected to decrease in the future climate. The Arctic warming is consequently enhanced by the weakening of the cooling effects of the nonlinear rectifications. Thus, this additional biological warming will contribute to future Arctic warming. This study suggests that effects of the mean chlorophyll and its variability should be considered to the sensitivity of Arctic warming via biogeophysical feedback processes in future projections using earth system models.

Expanding Greenland seagrass meadows contribute new sediment carbon sinks

The loss of natural carbon sinks, such as seagrass meadows, contributes to grenhouse gas emissions and, thus, global warming. Whereas seagrass meadows are declining in temperate and tropical regions, they are expected to expand into the Arctic with future warming. Using paleoreconstruction of carbon burial and sources of organic carbon to shallow coastal sediments of three Greenland seagrass (Zostera marina) meadows of contrasting density and age, we test the hypothesis that Arctic seagrass meadows are expanding along with the associated sediment carbon sinks. We show that sediments accreted before 1900 were highly 13C depleted, indicative of low inputs of seagrass carbon, whereas from 1940’s to present carbon burial rates increased greatly and sediment carbon stocks were largely enriched with seagrass material. Currently, the increase of seagrass carbon inputs to sediments of lush and dense meadows (Kapisillit and Ameralik) was 2.6 fold larger than that of sparse meadows with low biomass (Kobbefjord). Our results demonstrate an increasing important role of Arctic seagrass meadows in supporting sediment carbon sinks, likely to be enhanced with future Arctic warming.

Uniform shrub growth response to June temperature across the North Slope of Alaska

The expansion of woody shrubs in arctic tundra alters many aspects of high-latitude ecosystems, including carbon cycling and wildlife habitat. Dendroecology, the study of annual growth increments in woody plants, has shown promise in revealing how climate and environmental conditions interact with shrub growth to affect these key ecosystem properties. However, a predictive understanding of how shrub growth response to climate varies across the heterogeneous landscape remains elusive. Here we use individual-based mixed effects modeling to analyze 19 624 annual growth ring measurements in the stems of Salix pulchra (Cham.), a rapidly expanding deciduous shrub. Stem samples were collected at six sites throughout the North Slope of Alaska. Sites spanned four landscapes that varied in time since glaciation and hence in soil properties, such as nutrient availability, that we expected would modulate shrub growth response to climate. Ring growth was remarkably coherent among sites and responded positively to mean June temperature. The strength of this climate response varied slightly among glacial landscapes, but in contrast to expectations, this variability was not systematically correlated with landscape age. Additionally, shrubs at all sites exhibited diminishing marginal growth gains in response to increasing temperatures, indicative of alternative growth limiting mechanisms in particularly warm years, such as temperature-induced moisture limitation. Our results reveal a regionally-coherent and robust shrub growth response to early season growing temperature, with local soil properties contributing only a minor influence on shrub growth. Our conclusions strengthen predictions of changes to wildlife habitat and improve the representation of tundra vegetation dynamics in earth systems models in response to future arctic warming.

Long‐Term Drainage Reduces CO2 Uptake and CH4 Emissions in a Siberian Permafrost Ecosystem

AbstractPermafrost landscapes in northern high latitudes with their massive organic carbon stocks are an important, poorly known, component of the global carbon cycle. However, in light of future Arctic warming, the sustainability of these carbon pools is uncertain. To a large part, this is due to a limited understanding of the carbon cycle processes because of sparse observations in Arctic permafrost ecosystems. Here we present an eddy covariance data set covering more than 3 years of continuous CO2 and CH4 flux observations within a moist tussock tundra ecosystem near Chersky in north‐eastern Siberia. Through parallel observations of a disturbed (drained) area and a control area nearby, we aim to evaluate the long‐term effects of a persistently lowered water table on the net vertical carbon exchange budgets and the dominating biogeochemical mechanisms. Persistently drier soils trigger systematic shifts in the tundra ecosystem carbon cycle patterns. Both, uptake rates of CO2 and emissions of CH4 decreased. Year‐round measurements emphasize the importance of the non‐growing season—in particular the “zero‐curtain” period in the fall—to the annual budget. Approximately 60% of the CO2 uptake in the growing season is lost during the cold seasons, while CH4 emissions during the non‐growing season account for 30% of the annual budget. Year‐to‐year variability in temperature conditions during the late growing season was identified as the primary control of the interannual variability observed in the CO2 and CH4 fluxes.

The role of atmospheric heat transport and regional feedbacks in the Arctic warming at equilibrium

It is well known that the Arctic warms much more than the rest of the world even under spatially quasi-uniform radiative forcing such as that due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. While the surface albedo feedback is often referred to as the explanation of the enhanced Arctic warming, the importance of atmospheric heat transport from the lower latitudes has also been reported in previous studies. In the current study, an attempt is made to understand how the regional feedbacks in the Arctic are induced by the change in atmospheric heat transport and vice versa. Equilibrium sensitivity experiments that enable us to separate the contributions of the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitude response to the CO2 increase and the remote influence of surface warming in other regions are carried out. The result shows that the effect of remote forcing is predominant in the Arctic warming. The dry-static energy transport to the Arctic is reduced once the Arctic surface warms in response to the local or remote forcing. The feedback analysis based on the energy budget reveals that the increased moisture transport from lower latitudes, on the other hand, warms the Arctic in winter more effectively not only via latent heat release but also via greenhouse effect of water vapor and clouds. The change in total atmospheric heat transport determined as a result of counteracting dry-static and latent heat components, therefore, is not a reliable measure for the net effect of atmospheric dynamics on the Arctic warming. The current numerical experiments support a recent interpretation based on the regression analysis: the concurrent reduction in the atmospheric poleward heat transport and future Arctic warming predicted in some models does not imply a minor role of the atmospheric dynamics. Despite the similar magnitude of poleward heat transport change, the Arctic warms more than the Southern Ocean even in the equilibrium response without ocean dynamics. It is shown that a large negative shortwave cloud feedback over the Southern Ocean, greatly influenced by low-latitude surface warming, is responsible for this asymmetric polar warming.

Influence of altered low cloud parameterizations for seasonal variation of Arctic cloud amount on climate feedbacks

This study investigates the alteration of climate feedbacks due to overestimated wintertime low-level cloud amount bias over the Arctic region (60°N–90°N) in a climate model. The climate feedback was quantitatively examined through radiative kernels that are pre-calculated radiative responses of climate variables to doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3). Climate models have various annual cycle of the Arctic cloud amount at the low-level particularly with large uncertainty in winter and CAM3 may tend to overestimate the Arctic low-level cloud. In this study, the seasonal variation of low-level cloud amount was modified by reducing the wintertime cloud amount by up to 35 %, and then compared with the original without seasonal variation. Thus, we investigate how that bias may affect climate feedbacks and the projections of future Arctic warming. The results show that the decrease in low-level cloud amount slightly affected the radiation budgets because of a small amount of incident solar insolation in winter, but considerably changed water vapor and temperature profiles. Consequently, the most distinctive was decreases in water vapor feedback and contribution of heat transport (by −0.20 and −0.55 W m−2 K−1, respectively) and increases in the lapse rate feedback and cloud feedback (by 0.13 and 0.58 W m−2 K−1, respectively) during winter in this model experiment. This study suggests that the change in Arctic cloud amount effectively reforms the contributions of individual climate feedbacks to Arctic climate system and leads to opposing effects on different feedbacks, which cancel out in the model.

CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship

Abstract Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of the Arctic region compared to the rest of the globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over the twenty-first century. This study exploits the recently completed phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models to determine if their projected changes in the midlatitude circulation are consistent with the hypothesized impact of Arctic amplification over North America and the North Atlantic. Under the largest future greenhouse forcing (RCP8.5), it is found that every model, in every season, exhibits Arctic amplification by 2100. At the same time, the projected circulation responses are either opposite in sign to those hypothesized or too widely spread among the models to discern any robust change. However, in a few seasons and for some of the circulation metrics examined, correlations are found between the model spread in Arctic amplification and the model spread in the projected circulation changes. Therefore, while the CMIP5 models offer some evidence that future Arctic warming may be able to modulate some aspects of the midlatitude circulation response in some seasons, the analysis herein leads to the conclusion that the net circulation response in the future is unlikely to be determined solely—or even primarily—by Arctic warming according to the sequence of events recently hypothesized.

Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (TSOIL) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated TSOIL, active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in TSOIL. Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001–2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model’s treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that TSOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in TSOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60°N–80°N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming.

Arctic warming and your weather: public belief in the connection

ABSTRACTWill Arctic warming affect mid‐latitude weather? Many researchers think so, and have addressed this question through scientific articles and news media. Much of the public accepts such a connection as well. Across three New Hampshire surveys with more than 1500 interviews, 60% of respondents say they think future Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. Arctic/weather responses changed little after Superstorm Sandy brushed the region, but exhibit consistently strong partisan divisions that grow wider with education. Belief in an Arctic/weather connection also varies, in a nonlinear pattern, with the temperature anomaly around day of interview. Interviewed on unseasonably warm or cool days, respondents are more likely to think that Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. This unscientific response seems to mirror the scientific discussion about extremes.

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

Abstract. The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard's surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard's SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard's glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

The new face of the Arctic

Every summer the Arctic Ocean loses more ice — and it could all be gone within decades. Quirin Schiermeier looks at how the vanishing summer ice affects those living in the north. The cover shows an ice raft photographed in Kejser Franz Joseph Fjord, East Greenland National Park in 2006 by Simon A. Johnson of the University of Southampton. The transition from the Eocene to the Oligocene epoch, about 33.5 million years ago, saw a major climate shift from a warm world with no large ice sheets to one with a permanent Antarctic ice-sheet, similar in size to today's. The nature of the early glaciation history of the Northern Hemisphere is much debated, however. A paper in this issue reports stratigraphically extensive ice-rafted debris in late Eocene to early Oligocene sediments from the Norwegian–Greenland Sea, deposited between 38 and 30 million years ago. This suggests the presence of glaciers on Greenland 20 million years earlier than previously documented. International Polar Year 2007–8 gets under way this month, an event marked by series of News Features covering forthcoming drilling programmes and the latest predictions of future Arctic warming.