Future Agricultural Landscapes Research Articles

Contrasting effects of bioenergy crops on biodiversity.

Agriculture is driving biodiversity loss, and future bioenergy cropping systems have the potential to ameliorate or exacerbate these effects. Using a long-term experimental array of 10 bioenergy cropping systems, we quantified diversity of plants, invertebrates, vertebrates, and microbes in each crop. For many taxonomic groups, alternative annual cropping systems provided no biodiversity benefits when compared to corn (the business-as-usual bioenergy crop in the United States), and simple perennial grass-based systems provided only modest gains. In contrast, for most animal groups, richness in plant-diverse perennial systems was much higher than in annual crops or simple perennial systems. Microbial richness patterns were more eclectic, although some groups responded positively to plant diversity. Future agricultural landscapes incorporating plant-diverse perennial bioenergy cropping systems could be of high conservation value. However, increased use of annual crops will continue to have negative effects, and simple perennial grass systems may provide little improvement over annual crops.

Designing diversified crop rotations to advance sustainability: A method and an application

Diversified crop rotations are considered key to solving sustainability issues with modern farming but trade-offs often occur among different sustainability objectives. It remains a challenge to design rotations that reach compromises across multiple sustainability domains. Here we propose a methodological framework for systematic design of compromise rotations in terms of a set of sustainability indicators, which for the first time combines a rotation generator model (ROTAT), Pareto-based decision-aid tools, and a multi-criteria characterization process. We exemplify this framework by exploring promising diversified rotations in terms of 11 sustainability indicators for Quzhou, a typical cereal-growing county in the North China Plain. ROTAT generated 3011 agronomically feasible rotations but none of them outperformed the currently dominant wheat-maize system in all indicators. Then 125 rotations (4 %) were selected as compromise rotations using the Pareto-based decision-aid methods. Finally, these compromise rotations were divided into eight clusters representing contrasting sustainability patterns, including two profitability-oriented, two nutrition-oriented, and two environment-oriented clusters, as well as two clusters that achieved balance across sustainability domains. We conclude that no single alternative rotation can solve all conflicting sustainability issues, but compromise alternatives could serve diverse stakeholder demands and provide well-planned options for future agricultural landscapes. The crop rotation design method showcased here could also be used in other specialized agricultural regions to inform stakeholders and policy-makers about possibilities and trade-offs when improving sustainability of crop production.

Farm consolidation and turnover dynamics linked to increased crop diversity and higher agricultural input use

ContextCrop-type composition and configuration at field and landscape scales are known to impact ecological functions in agricultural landscapes. However, links between regional farmland structures (e.g., variable farm size, ownership, configuration, etc.), which are important determinants of farm-level management decisions, and subsequent changes in agroecosystem impacts, remain understudied.Objective:To investigate these dynamics, we examined relationships between changing farm structures, as indicated by farm consolidation and persistence, and concurrent changes in crop diversity and agricultural resource use between 2002 and 2018 in Kern County, California.Methods:We integrated parcel-level datasets documenting farm size, operatorship, crop cover, pesticide usage and evapotranspiration rates for 2002 and 2018. We then applied seemingly unrelated regression analyses to quantify potential relationships between these key variables.Results and conclusions:In our study area we observed low (28%) persistence of farm operators from 2002 to 2018 and farm consolidation, as evidenced by a 43% increase in farm midpoint size in the studied time period. We further found significant associations between farm structures and agro-environmental outcomes. A doubling in farm size was associated with an 8% increase in crop diversity, but also with an 18% increase in pesticide-use and a 7% increase in water use at the farm level, raising concerns about the impact of large farms on landscape-scale resource use. Both crop diversity and water use were higher in persistent farms (8% and 11%, respectively) than in replaced or emergent farms. Our findings illustrate how regional shifts in farm size and operatorship may link to changes in crop diversity and resource use. SignificanceGiven continued concerns about the impacts that landscape simplification, pesticide use, and water shortages may have on agroecosystems both in our study region and beyond, our study highlights regional farm structure dynamics as a key element to investigate further and to consider in policies aiming to increase the sustainability of future agricultural landscapes.

Imagining future agricultural landscapes in a new Sudan: Entitled expertise, cultural intransience and fine warm rain in the English wilds

ABSTRACT This article responds to work on development-centred technical and scientific expertise at the decline of the British empire in Africa. It focuses on the imagining of future agricultural landscapes in Sudan, exploring how such imagining was framed by the social and colonial worlds in which scientific knowledge about agricultural capacity in the north and south was produced. It draws on a private archive of letters, photographs and objects compiled by Roger Brain, an agricultural scientist engaged in research and census work for the University of Khartoum in Sudan between 1953 and 1959. His archive reveals the underlying assumptions, conventions and anxieties that framed the ways in which he viewed and understood the landscapes in which he worked. I argue that this framing shaped regionalized notions of inevitable technological transformation in the north, and notions of a fragile cultural distinctiveness coupled with a deep nostalgia for rural intransience in the south.

Multi-objective optimization as a tool to identify possibilities for future agricultural landscapes

Agricultural landscapes provide many functions simultaneously including food production, regulation of water and regulation of greenhouse gases. Thus, it is challenging to make land management decisions, particularly transformative changes, that improve on one function without unintended consequences for other functions. To make informed decisions the trade-offs between different landscape functions must be considered. Here, we use a multi-objective optimization algorithm with a model of crop production that also simulates environmental effects such as nitrous oxide emissions to identify trade-off frontiers and associated possibilities for agricultural management. Trade-offs are identified in three soil types, using wheat production in the UK as an example, then the trade-off for combined management of the three soils is considered. The optimization algorithm identifies trade-offs between different objectives and allows them to be visualised. For example, we observed a highly non-linear trade-off between wheat yield and nitrous oxide emissions, illustrating where small changes might have a large impact. We used a cluster analysis to identify distinct management strategies with similar management actions and use these clusters to link the trade-off curves to possibilities for management. There were more possible strategies for achieving desirable environmental outcomes and remaining profitable when the management of different soil types was considered together. Interestingly, it was on the soil capable of the highest potential profit that lower profit strategies were identified as useful for combined management. Meanwhile, to maintain average profitability across the soils, it was necessary to maximise the profit from the soil with the lowest potential profit. These results are somewhat counterintuitive and so the range of strategies supplied by the model could be used to stimulate discussion amongst stakeholders. In particular, as some key objectives can be met in different ways, stakeholders could discuss the impact of these management strategies on other objectives not quantified by the model.

Agroenergy Crops Influence the Diversity, Biomass, and Guild Structure of Terrestrial Arthropod Communities

Expanded production of contemporary bioenergy crops (e.g., corn) is considered a threat to the conservation of biodiversity, yet next-generation perennially based crops (switchgrass, mixed-grass–forb prairie) may represent an opportunity for enhancing biodiversity in agricultural landscapes. We employed a multi-scaled approach to investigate the relative importance of feedstock selection, forb content, patch size, and landscape-scale habitat structure and composition as factors shaping the diversity and abundance of terrestrial arthropod communities and the biomass of functional groups of arthropods associated with the provisioning of ecosystem services. Compared to intensively managed annual corn fields, switchgrass and mixed-grass–forb prairie plantings were associated with a 230% and 324% increase in arthropod family diversity and a 750% and 2,700% increase in arthropod biomass, respectively. Biomass of arthropod pollinators, herbivores, predators, and parasites were similarly the highest in mixed-grass–forb prairie, intermediate in switchgrass plantings, and the lowest in cornfields. Community-wide biomass and that of several functional arthropod groups were positively linked to increasing forest cover and land cover diversity surrounding biomass plantings, while pollinator and detritivore biomass was lower in smaller fields. Results not only suggest that the choice of biomass feedstock will play an important role in shaping within-field arthropod diversity but also indicate an important role for the composition of this surrounding landscape. Collectively, our results suggest that selection of perennially based biomass feedstocks along with careful attention to crop placement have important potential to enhance biodiversity conservation and the provisioning of ecologically and economically important arthropod-mediated ecosystem services in future agricultural landscapes.

Iowa farmers' responses to transformative scenarios for Corn Belt agriculture

T ransformative approaches to agricultural research, policy, and practice could result in future agricultural landscapes that are very different from the present. The National Research Council (2010) report Toward Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the 21st Century recommends that incremental approaches to improving sustainability, which work within existing agricultural systems, be augmented by transformative approaches, which introduce and assess the possibilities for more dramatic change. Biofuels, environmental effects of agriculture, and farmer adoption of sustainable practices should be among the key considerations in transformative approaches to 21st century agriculture in the Corn Belt. BIOFUELS Biofuels have emerged as the leading non-nuclear alternative to fossil fuels (SEG 2007), and transformative approaches can provide information about the merits of different biofuels—corn ethanol compared with other feedstocks, including perennial grasses for cellulosic ethanol (Robertson et al. 2008; Jordan et al. 2007). Current agricultural and energy policy have provoked dramatic increases in corn and soybean production for biofuels (Sorenson and Daukas 2010; Lubowski et al. 2008). With effective future commercial scale technologies, perennial grass feedstock for cellulosic ethanol may outperform corn ethanol in terms of net energy production, terrestrial carbon storage, and other ecosystem services (Simpson et al. 2008; Fargione et al. 2008).

Developing scenarios and visualisations to illustrate potential policy and climatic influences on future agricultural landscapes

The future evolution of our agricultural landscapes and countryside is the subject of considerable debate and policy discussion, alongside which is an increasing emphasis on the inclusion of public consultation and participation within planning and decision making systems. However, communicating different proposed policy options in a manner that facilitates informed decisions from stakeholders can be far from straightforward. This is particularly true with more abstract and uncertain issues such as potential impacts of climate change. Scenarios depicting the possible outcomes of policy options provide a useful tool to evaluate the potential consequences of choices. This paper documents an approach to constructing scenarios that can incorporate potential climate change impacts, and reflect the uncertainty in climate change projections due to different environmental policies. It describes the construction of scenarios using the Humberhead Levels in the UK as a case study and portrays the scenarios using two forms of visualisation—digital photo-montage and a real-time landscape model. The method is equally applicable to other study areas across Europe where suitable data are available. Preliminary reactions from an audience to scenario images are discussed, as well as the technical and practical challenges of using visualisation techniques to support decision making.

EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF POLICY OPTIONS ON AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES: AN ALTERNATIVE‐FUTURES APPROACH

Alternative‐futures analysis was used to analyze different scenarios of future growth patterns and attendant resource allocations on the agricultural system of Oregon's Willamette River Basin. A stakeholder group formulated three policy alternatives: a continuation of current trends, an increased reliance on market forces to determine land use, and an increased emphasis on environmental restoration programs. To model the alternative scenarios first required the development of a spatial representation of the current agricultural system. Next, rules and constraints based on the three policy scenarios were formulated. Then a spatially explicit, multi‐attribute, decision‐making model was used to model changes in agricultural land cover and land use. This procedure generated three future landscapes, each depicting an alternative state of the agricultural system in the year 2050. Finally, the agronomic and environmental condition of each agricultural system was evaluated by using landscape metrics and screening models. The results show that the type and amount of farmland conversion were the scenario elements that most distinguished the future agricultural landscapes. By continuing current land use policies, nearly all of the existing farmland was conserved for future agricultural use, while both the market‐driven and environmental restoration scenarios converted 15% or more of the agricultural land to other uses. The use of farmland for vegetation restoration activities was particularly successful in improving riparian habitat, while habitat quality over the region showed widespread improvement. The patterns of crop selection in each future followed general trends, but with variations among scenarios as crop selection decisions adapted to changing field and basin conditions.

Valuing Landscape: a Contingent Valuation Approach

Landscapes can change over time as a consequence of economic demands and technological innovation in agriculture. This study assesses the preferences for and the value of different landscapes which could arise in the future in the Yorkshire Dales National Park. The landscapes assessed comprised images of a range of possible future agricultural landscapes: today's landscape; abandoned; semi-intensive agricultural; intensive agricultural; planned; conserved; sporting; and wild landscapes. A majority of both visitors to and residents of the Dales preferred today's landscapes, although the conserved landscape was also valued highly. A comparison of the costs of maintaining each landscape with their respective benefits indicates that more public expenditure should be devoted to protecting and enhancing environmental attributes such as dry stone walls and stone barns, wild flowers and hay meadows, and small broadleaved woodlands. Methodological tests on the contingent valuation technique underpinning this study suggests that the results are reliable and robust.

Assessing the value of future landscapes

Landscapes can change over time as a consequence of economic demands and technological innovation in agriculture. This study assesses the preferences for and the values of different landscapes, which could arise in the future in the Yorkshire Dales National Park. The landscapes assessed were comprised of images of a range of possible future agricultural landscapes: today's landscape, abandoned, semi-intensive agricultural intensive agricultural, planned, conserved, sporting, and wild landscapes. A majority of both visitors to and residents of the Dales preferred today's landscapes, although the conserved landscape was also valued highly. A comparison of the costs of maintaining each landscape with their respective benefits indicates that more public expenditure should be devoted to protecting and enhancing environmental attributes such as dry stone walls and stone barns, wild flowers and hay meadows, and small broadleaved woodlands. Methodological tests on the contingent valuation technique underpinning this study suggest that the results are reliable and robust.