The article represents the research on influence of a number of hydrochemical parameters on the phytoplankton formation in the Tiligulsky Liman in 2015 and the forecast of possible changes in terms of increasing salinity. In the northern, central, southern and coastal part of the Liman, 65 species of microalgae were found, which were mainly diatoms (44) and dinoflagellates (12 species). The coastal waters were characterized by the highest number of phytoplankton (4.3 million cells·l-1) due to the massive development of green algae. The biomass was almost the same at all regions (1618.2 – 1955.8 mg·m-3), except the southern (358.7 mg·m-3). The salinity varied in the following range: 13‰ – in the coastal part, 24‰ – in the south and north, 25‰ – in the central. In the lower part it was revealed the dominance of dinoflagellates of the genera Prorocentrum, Protoperidinium, Gymnodinium (contribution to biomass up to 82%), on the sea coast – green algae Monoraphidium contortum (Thur.) Komark.-Legn., M. minutum (Nageli) Komark.-Legn. (up to 11% by biomass and 67% by abundance). Flagellates reached a fairly high abundance at different sites (up to 10% by biomass and 15% by abundance). Among the diatoms Skeletonema costatum (Grev.) Cl. developed massively in the southern part of the Liman; Ceratoneis closterium (Ehr.) Reimann et JCLewin and Tabularia fasciculata (Ag.C) DMWilliams et Round – in the coastal part; Chaetoceros socialis – in the central, Navicula sp. – in the northern. Correlation and ordination analysis revealed that salinity is the main factor determining the development of plankton microphytes at the studied sites. Oxygen content, depth and temperature are also important factors in the bottom horizon. The content of nutrients is more significant on the surface horizon. Regarding the salinity, 35 species-indicators of salinity were identified, of which 11% were indifferent (freshwater-brackish-water), 37 – mesogalobes (brackish-water) and 51 polyhalobes (marine). In comparison with the studies of the 1980s and 2000s, it was found that the share of freshwater-brackish-water species has decreased significantly, and freshwater algae were absent. Further increase in salinity will lead to raising of the proportion of eurygaline species, such as diatoms Achnanthes brevipes, Halamphora coffeaeformis, Navicula salinarum, N. pontica, N. cancellata, Nitzschia hybrida, Tabularia fasciculata, Ceratoneis closterium, Cocconeis scutellum. These species can withstand fairly large salinity ranges and are the first who massively develop in salinized water bodies.
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