Fund-supported Programs Research Articles

Doing more with less: The catalytic function of IMF lending and the role of program size

Financial assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is supposed to unlock other financing, acting as a catalyst for private capital flows. The empirical evidence of the presence of such a catalytic effect has, however, been mixed. This paper shows that a possible explanation for the rather inconclusive empirical evidence to date is the neglect of the size of an IMF program. Applying a novel identification strategy to account for endogenous selection into (large) adjustment programs, and using a comprehensive data set spanning the years 1990-2018, we show that the catalytic effect of IMF financial assistance is weakened – and potentially reversed – if the size of a program exceeds a certain level. We argue that large IMF financial assistance coupled with the IMF’s preferred creditor status can lead to a crowding-out of private investors by increasing their loss in the event of default. Our findings add to the debate on the optimal size of Fund-supported programs and can also inform the broader policy discussions on the adequacy of IMF resources.

Paraguay

Paraguay continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic amidst simultaneous shocks that would lead to flat GDP growth and inflation above the IT range this year. Those conditions are reflected in rising social demands within a politicized environment before the 2023 general elections. The outlook remains favorable, and the authorities are pursuing policies to follow a stronger, more resilient, and inclusive development path. On the back of very positive experiences with Fund-supported programs, the authorities are requesting approval of a two-year program supported by the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) to underpin the implementation of needed structural reforms.

Central African Economic and Monetary Community

CEMAC is broadly benefiting from the positive terms of trade shock amidst the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Post-pandemic economic recovery is taking hold, albeit slowly, supported by high oil prices and the lifting of COVID-19 containment measures. External reserves have started to build up, though still short of the desired level, owing in part to costly untargeted energy and food subsidies. Global inflation pressures have passed through to domestic prices, putting pressure on real incomes. Rebuilding buffers and sustaining a recovery that protects the most vulnerable will require stricter adherence to budget and reform plans consistent with Fund-supported programs and policy advice; this will ensure that part of the oil windfall is saved. Implementation of these policies in current favorable conditions is critical to strengthening resilience in the face of rising risks, including most notably to food security, debt vulnerabilities, and tightening of global financial conditions.

Ecuador

Economic recovery is ongoing. Real GDP is expected to expand by 2.7 percent in 2022, slightly lower than expected in the last review due to the protests-related disruptions in June and slower growth in trading partners. Inflationary pressures have risen, driven by higher food and transport prices and non-tradeable services, with the headline inflation expected to reach 3.8 percent yoy at end-2022. Tighter financing conditions for all EMs, and an increasingly challenging domestic political environment sharply increased spreads and postponed international market access. The government remains committed to the Fund-supported program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of SDR 4,615 million (661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) that was approved by the IMF Executive Board on September 30, 2020. Upon completion of the Sixth and final Review under the EFF-supported program—the first IMF program Ecuador will have completed in more than two decades— an additional SDR 497 million (about $700 million) would be made available.

Ecuador

The economy rebounded more strongly than expected in 2021 at 4.2 percent, bolstered by a well-executed vaccination campaign that allowed for a steady reopening of the economy. The recovery will continue in 2022, but at a more moderate pace of 2.9 percent. Inflationary pressures, mostly due to higher commodity prices, are expected to rise. The government remains committed to the Fund-supported program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of SDR 4,615 million (661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) that was approved by the IMF Executive Board on September 30, 2020. Upon completion of the combined Fourth and Fifth Reviews under the EFF, an additional SDR 710 million would be made available.

Benin

The Beninese government embarked, five years ago, on an ambitious reform agenda (“Revealing Benin”) to revive the economy and improve the wellbeing of the people. Economic activity accelerated prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, with sound macroeconomic management and enhanced budget transparency culminating in access to international capital markets in 2019 and issuance of the first-ever SDG bond by an African sovereign last year. However, today, Benin faces significant headwinds from a deteriorating security situation at its northern borders, pandemic-induced scars, and higher cost of living amidst the war in Ukraine, which could impact hard-won macroeconomic gains and cause hardship. The authorities have requested a Fund-supported program to meet pressing financing needs, preserve macroeconomic stability, and anchor the country’s National Development Plan centered on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Fund Support for Debt- and Debt-Service-Reduction Operations

The note concludes that the Fund could support a member’s use of buybacks, cash sweeteners, or collateral in the context of a Fund-supported program, provided that (i) debt restructurings using buybacks, cash sweeteners or collateral offer significant efficiency gains relative to debt restructurings that do not rely on such instruments, but are underpinned by a regular Fund-supported program; and (ii) an adequate cushion of non-multilateral debt remains after the operation. The conditions under which buybacks, cash sweeteners or collateral can be expected to deliver significant efficiency gains are narrow and specified in some detail.

Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC)

The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.

Somalia

This paper presents an assessment of Somalia’s eligibility for assistance under the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The macroeconomic framework reflects the policy framework underlying the proposed three-year Fund-supported program. The debt relief analysis (DRA) remains largely unchanged, but some of the underlying debt data has been updated to reflect new information from creditors. In addition, this paper presents an assessment of debt management capacity in Somalia and a full Debt Sustainability Analysis under the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries. The DRA reveals that, after traditional debt relief mechanisms are applied, Somalia’s debt burden expressed as the net present value of debt-to-exports ratio is 344.2 percent at the end of December 2018—significantly above the HIPC Initiative threshold. Despite the challenging environment, progress on reform and policy implementation has been good and sustained reforms have translated into economic results. In addition to the coordinated support from the World Bank and the IMF, reforms have been supported by other development partners.

Doing More with Less: The Catalytic Function of IMF Lending and the Role of Program Size

Financial assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is supposed to unlock other financing, acting as a catalyst for private capital flows. The empirical evidence of the presence of such a catalytic effect has, however, been mixed. This paper shows that a possible explanation for the rather inconclusive empirical evidence to date is the neglect of the size of an IMF program. Applying a novel identification strategy to account for endogenous selection into (large) adjustment programs, and using a comprehensive data set spanning the years 1990-2018, we show that the catalytic effect of IMF financial assistance is weakened - and potentially reversed - if the size of a program exceeds a certain level. We argue that large IMF financial assistance coupled with the IMF's preferred creditor status can lead to a crowding-out of private investors by increasing their loss in the event of default. Our findings add to the debate on the optimal size of Fund-supported programs and can also inform the broader policy discussions on the adequacy of IMF resources.

Liberia

Resource constraints, macroeconomic imbalances, and longstanding fragility continue to challenge the authorities’ efforts to improve living standards. An initial rush to deliver election promises has, at times, led to shortcomings in their execution. After grappling with these challenges for over a year, a consensus on the need for broad-based reform has emerged, leading to a request for a Fund-supported program. The authorities are requesting Fund support in the form of a four-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility of SDR155 million (60 percent of quota) to guide policies and reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, providing a foundation for sustainable growth, and addressing weaknesses in governance.

Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs

This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.

Kyrgyz Republic

The economy is growing steadily, benefiting from a benign regional environment, particularly in Russia, the source of most remittances and non-gold export receipts. Low inflation, lower fiscal deficits, and a stable banking sector point to the success of stabilization policies implemented by the government and National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR, the central bank) under eight successive Fund-supported programs. However, the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks because of the high level of remittances (29 percent of GDP), the concentration of exports on gold (37 percent of exports of goods), the level and composition of the public debt (56 percent of GDP, 4/5 of which is denominated in foreign currency), and the level of the current account deficit (8.7 percent of GDP). In addition, economic growth has been insufficient to significantly raise living standards and continue to reduce poverty.

Republic of Armenia

Since the 2014–16 regional economic slowdown, economic activity has recovered, while policies have remained broadly in line with staff’s advice. Supported by the upgraded fiscal rule, fiscal consolidation remains on track, and public debt has started to decline. Inflation is under control, the financial system remains stable, and pressures on the exchange rate have been limited. Nonetheless, important challenges remain. Importantly, the still-weak business climate and corruption constrain the economy’s capacity to grow sufficiently rapidly to tangibly reduce poverty and unemployment. Moreover, the economy continues to be vulnerable to external shocks; public debt, while declining, is relatively elevated; and enhancing revenue mobilization remains a critical priority. Recognizing these challenges, the new government has pledged to revitalize efforts to fight corruption, improve competition, strengthen revenue administration, and build resilience to shocks. It has requested a new Fund-supported program to help achieve these objectives and move Armenia toward a more dynamic market economy.

Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting

This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF's resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country's track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund's financial resources.

Ghana: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana

Program performance improved in 2017 and macroeconomic conditions have strengthened considerably. Growth increased on the back of expanded oil production; inflation declined; the fiscal deficit was significantly reduced, leading to a primary surplus for the first time in fifteen years; the exchange rate regained stability; and the external position improved, with a large reserve build-up. Challenges remain, though, as a still elevated (albeit declining) debt burden and the economy’s exposure to risks limit policy space; and progress in meeting structural benchmarks remains mixed. Program discussions focused on policies to lock in recent gains to secure continued stability and progress beyond the Fund-supported program (in line with the authorities' goal of "irreversibility" of sound policies).

Large Natural Disasters--Enhancing the Financial Safety Net for Developing Countries

The Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) are valuable components of the disaster risk financing tool kit for Fund members, especially developing countries. They help to meet urgent balance of payments needs, and are designed to play a catalytic role in mobilizing other external financing. This paper develops proposals for a higher annual access limit under the RCF and RFI, building on a November 2016 staff paper on small states’ resilience to natural disasters and climate change (IMF, 2016c). Directors generally supported the proposal in that paper to establish higher annual access limits of 60 percent of quota under the RCF and RFI for countries experiencing severe natural disaster-related damages. The focus of this paper is to specify the threshold of damage from a natural disaster that would allow members experiencing urgent balance of payments needs arising from such disasters to access emergency financing at the higher annual limit. In the November 2016 paper, staff proposed, among other things, the possibility of establishing a higher access limit under the RCF and RFI where the amount of damage reached the threshold of 30 percent of GDP. Most Directors regarded the proposed threshold of disaster damage as overly restrictive, and suggested lowering the threshold to 20 percent of GDP or lower, provided that this did not jeopardize the self-sustainability of the PRGT. For a range of future disaster outcomes, a damage threshold of 20 percent of GDP could increase projected annual average PRGT loan demand in the 1-5 percent range over the next decade, which should not pose significant risks to the robustness of PRGT self-sustainability. Cautious stewardship of PRGT resources argues against a lower disaster damage threshold, pending further experience with disaster trends and associated PRGT loan demand. This paper does not propose changes to the current cumulative access limits for the RCF and RFI. The cumulative access limits play an important role in the Fund’s financing architecture, constraining the extent to which countries can access Fund resources without implementing a Fund-supported program with upper credit tranche (UCT) conditionality and associated policies in circumstances where such a program would be more appropriate. The Board will have the opportunity to review the cumulative access limits in the context

Reforming the Fund's Policy on Non-Toleration of Arrears to Official Creditors

Background: As a follow-up to the May 2013 Executive Board’s discussion of the paper on Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Recent Developments and Implications for the Fund’s Legal and Policy Framework (hereinafter, the “2013 Paper“), this paper proposes a reform to the Fund’s policy on non-toleration of arrears owed to official bilateral creditors (“NTP”) with a view to addressing the major issues related to official sector involvement (OSI) discussed in the 2013 Paper. Unlike the Fund’s lending-into-arrears (“LIA”) policy for private creditors, the NTP prevents Fund lending to countries if they owe unresolved arrears to official bilateral creditors, unless the arrears are covered by a Paris Club agreement or the creditor consents to the Fund providing financing. Nature of the problem: As staff foreshadowed in the 2013 Paper, several aspects of the current NTP present challenges in a changing and increasingly diverse landscape for official bilateral finance. For example, the NTP’s reliance on the practices and conventions of the Paris Club creates challenges in an environment where a growing number of creditors are non-Paris Club members. In particular, the NTP’s dependence on the Paris Club’s comparability of treatment principle to deem away arrears to non-Paris Club bilateral creditors is difficult to justify in circumstances where a Paris Club agreement is not sufficiently representative and the bulk of official bilateral claims are held by non-Paris Club creditors. Further, where there is no Paris Club agreement, the current policy can give individual official bilateral creditors a veto over Fund lending decisions, drawing no distinction between creditors that are contributing to the financing requirements of the program and those that are not, thus leaving the system vulnerable to holdouts. Proposed modification: Staff’s proposal envisages a two-step process: in the first step, all creditors would be encouraged to reach a consensus. While the Paris Club is currently a well-established forum for OSI, the Fund would also recognize agreements among creditors reached in other representative fora, should such fora emerge. If an agreement is reached through the Paris Club and the creditor group so formed represents a significant portion of total official bilateral claims, the Fund would rely on its current practices and deem away arrears to nonparticipating creditors based on the Club’s comparability of treatment principle. Only when an agreement cannot be reached (i) with a representative group of creditors in the Paris Club, or (ii) with each creditor in an alternative grouping or bilaterally, would the Fund consider lending into arrears owed to official bilateral creditors in carefully circumscribed circumstances. The decision to lend in these situations would be subject to a need for prompt Fund assistance, an assessment that the debtor is making good faith efforts to reach an agreement and that the absence of a debt restructuring is due to the unwillingness of the creditor to reach an agreement consistent with the parameters of the Fund-supported program, and a judgment on whether the decision to lend could negatively affect the Fund’s ability to mobilize official financing packages in the future. Likely impact: Staff’s proposal will strengthen incentives for collective action among official bilateral creditors in situations where OSI is necessary. The two-step process encourages individual official bilateral creditors to be part of a multilateral agreement, thus reducing the risk that the Fund would be prevented from assisting a member in need because certain official bilateral creditors are seeking more favorable treatment of their claims at the expense of other contributing creditors. Importantly, the policy will continue to protect official bilateral creditors, as any decision to lend into arrears will be subject to the debtor’s good faith efforts, will be applied in a way that preserves the Fund’s ability to mobilize official financing packages in future, and be subject to the Board’s approval. Next steps: If the Board supports the proposed modification, the new policy will apply immediately to all future Fund disbursements (including under existing arrangements) with respect to existing and future arrears owed to official bilateral creditors.

Crisis Program Review

This paper provides an updated review of Fund-supported programs undertaken during the global financial crisis. It follows a series of previous reviews during 2009–12 that assessed program design and outcomes during the surge in Fund supported programs since 2008. The review covers experience during 2008–15 for 32 arrangements financed from the Fund's general resources account (GRA). It covers 27 countries for which arrangements were approved during September 2008–June 2013, with two years or more of program performance.

Staff Guidance Note on the Implementation of Public Debt Limits in Fund-Supported Programs

In December 2014, the Executive Board approved new guidelines on the use of public debt limits in Fund-supported programs. The new guidelines enter into effect on June 30, 2015. The key changes with respect to the existing debt limits policy include, inter alia, the broadening of the policy to encompass all public debt rather than only external public debt; an integrated treatment of external public debt, covering both concessional and non-concessional debt; and closer links between public debt vulnerabilities and the use and specification of public debt conditionality. This note provides operational and technical guidance related to the implementation of the debt limits policy. In particular, it sets out how the policy should be implemented in country-specific circumstances. Full text also available in French