Full Range Of Natural Variability Research Articles

Australia’s 2019/20 Black Summer fire weather exceptionally rare over the last 2000 years

Australia’s record-breaking 2019/20 Black Summer fire weather resulted from a combination of natural and anthropogenic climate factors, but the full range of natural variability in fire weather is unknown. We reconstruct southeast Australian fire weather over the Common Era based on an East Antarctic ice core sea-salt aerosol record. This record reflects the Southern Ocean synoptic-scale weather patterns and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex strength that pre-condition elevated fire danger over southeast Australia. We show that the (a) intensity of the 2019/20 fire weather was unprecedented since 1950 and (b) frequency of above average fire weather seasons from 2010–2020 has only occurred once since 1950 (over 1977–1987), but there are analogues for similar extreme fire danger caused by natural variability in the 2000-year reconstruction. This highlights the need for fire risk mitigation that considers the full range of plausible natural variability in Australia’s fire weather as well as anthropogenic forcing.

Stable Southern Hemisphere westerly winds throughout the Holocene until intensification in the last two millennia

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds sustain the Southern Ocean’s role as one of Earth’s main carbon sinks, and have helped sequester nearly half the anthropogenic CO2 stored in the ocean. Observations show shifts in the vigor of this climate regulator, but models disagree how future change impacts carbon storage due to scarce baseline data. Here, we use the hydrogen isotope ratios of sedimentary lipids to resolve Holocene changes in Southern Hemisphere westerly wind strength. Our reconstruction reveals stable values until ~2150 years ago when aquatic compounds became more 2H-enriched. We attribute this isotope excursion to wind-driven lake water evaporation, and regional paleoclimate evidence shows it marks a trend towards a negative Southern Annular Mode – the Southern Ocean’s main mode of atmospheric variability. Because this shift is unmatched in the past 7000 years, our findings suggest that previously published millennium-long Southern Annular Mode indices used to benchmark future change may not capture the full range of natural variability.

A 307-YEAR TREE-RING SPEI RECONSTRUCTION INDICATES MODERN DROUGHT IN WESTERN NEPAL HIMALAYAS

Western Nepal has experienced a severe drought in the past two decades, but observation records across Nepal are too short to place the recent drought in a longer context to understand the full range of natural variability in the climate system. In the present study we have collected tree core samples of Tsuga dumosa from two sites, Chhetti and Ranghadi, in the Api Nampa Conservation Area of the western Nepal Himalayas to understand drought variation for the past three centuries. We have developed a 357-year (AD 1657–2013) tree-ring chronology. The tree growth-climate response analysis revealed a stronger positive correlation with spring (March-May) standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI01) (r = 0.523, p < 0.01) than precipitation (r = 0.459, p < 0.01), self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) (r = 0.250, p < 0.01), or temperature (r = -0.486, p < 0.01). Stronger positive correlation with SPEI01 indicates moisture availability is the limiting factor for the growth of this species on these sites. Based on this growth-climate response we reconstructed spring SPEI from AD 1707 to 2013 for the region. The reconstruction showed several dry and wet episodes indicating no persistent climate trend within the past three centuries. The current drought is one of the four most severe in our 307-year record.

Six Centuries of Upper Indus Basin Streamflow Variability and Its Climatic Drivers

Our understanding of the full range of natural variability in streamflow, including how modern flow compares to the past, is poorly understood for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) because of short instrumental gauge records. To help address this challenge, we use Hierarchical Bayesian Regression (HBR) with partial pooling to develop six centuries long (1394-2008 C.E.) streamflow reconstructions at three UIB gauges (Doyian, Gilgit, and Kachora), concurrently demonstrating that HBR can be used to reconstruct short records with interspersed missing data. At one gauge (Partab Bridge), with a longer instrumental record (47 years), we develop reconstructions using both Bayesian Regression (BR) and the more conventionally used Principal Components Regression (PCR). The reconstructions produced by PCR and BR at Partab Bridge are nearly identical and yield comparable reconstruction skill statistics, highlighting that the resulting tree-ring reconstruction of streamflow is not dependent on the choice of statistical method. Reconstructions at all four reconstructions indicate flow levels in the 1990s were higher than mean flow for the past six centuries. While streamflow appears most sensitive to accumulated winter (January-March) precipitation and summer (MJJAS) temperature, with warm summers contributing to high flow through increased melt of snow and glaciers, shifts in winter precipitation and summer temperatures cannot explain the anomalously high flow during the 1990s. Regardless, the sensitivity of streamflow to summer temperatures suggests that projected warming may increase streamflow in coming decades, though long-term water risk will additionally depend on changes in snowfall and glacial mass balance.

Variability within the 10-Year Pollen Rain of a Seasonal Neotropical Forest and Its Implications for Paleoenvironmental and Phenological Research

Tropical paleoecologists use a combination of mud-water interface and modern pollen rain samples (local samples of airborne pollen) to interpret compositional changes within fossil pollen records. Taxonomic similarities between the composition of modern assemblages and fossil samples are the basis of reconstructing paleoclimates and paleoenvironments. Surface sediment samples reflect a time-averaged accumulation of pollen spanning several years or more. Due to experimental constraints, modern pollen rain samples are generally collected over shorter timeframes (1–3 years) and are therefore less likely to capture the full range of natural variability in pollen rain composition and abundance. This potentially biases paleoenvironmental interpretations based on modern pollen rain transfer functions. To determine the degree to which short-term environmental change affects the composition of the aerial pollen flux of Neotropical forests, we sampled ten years of the seasonal pollen rain from Barro Colorado Island, Panama and compared it to climatic and environmental data over the same ten-year span. We establish that the pollen rain effectively captured the strong seasonality and stratification of pollen flow within the forest canopy and that individual taxa had variable sensitivity to seasonal and annual changes in environmental conditions, manifested as changes in pollen productivity. We conclude that modern pollen rain samples capture the reproductive response of moist tropical plants to short-term environmental change, but that consequently, pollen rain-based calibrations need to include longer sampling periods (≥7 years) to reflect the full range of natural variability in the pollen output of a forest and simulate the time-averaging present in sediment samples. Our results also demonstrate that over the long-term, pollen traps placed in the forest understory are representative samples of the pollen output of both canopy and understory vegetation. Aerial pollen traps, therefore, also represent an underutilized means of monitoring the pollen productivity and reproductive behavior of moist tropical forests.

Natural Environmental Changes versus Human Impact in a Florida Estuary (Rookery Bay, USA)

Assessing the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activity on Florida coastal areas requires a thorough understanding of natural climate variability. The available instrumental record, however, is too short and too limited to capture the full range of natural variability. In order to provide additional data on the natural state of the climate system and to evaluate the influence of human impact, we reconstructed climatic and environmental changes of the past 300 years. Pre- (before 1900 ad) and post-human impact conditions were compared in Rookery Bay, a subtropical, southern Florida estuary and its bordering wetland system. Biomarkers from terrestrial and aquatic environments were used to reconstruct temperature, runoff, and aquatic productivity. Pre-anthropogenic conditions before 1750 ad indicate a relatively large contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter, locally decreasing at the end of this period. After 1750 ad follows a relatively stable period in which biomarker concentrations indicate relatively low levels of runoff and aquatic production. Enhanced anthropogenic activities, such as land clearance and hydrological alterations, end this period of stability by altering the hydrological conditions. This leads to a more dynamic system which is more sensitive to disturbances of vegetation and drainage, as evidenced by peak terrestrial biomarker fluxes during the twentieth century. These episodes of enhanced runoff resulted in eutrophication and algal blooms in Rookery Bay. Natural climate phenomena, such as a positive AMO phase and hurricane activity, might have added to ongoing processes during the twentieth century.

Tracing growing degree‐day changes in the cuticle morphology of Betula nana leaves: a new micro‐phenological palaeo‐proxy

AbstractChanging growing‐season properties in the northern latitudes are among the most obvious consequences of ongoing global change. Available techniques including satellite monitoring and phenological observations enable the detection of changes over the last few decades to centuries, but the full range of natural variability is still difficult to capture. Here we introduce a new approach to reconstruct growing season properties, by studying imprints of prolonged growing season on epidermal cell growth in Betula nana. A high correlation between cell expansion determined in annually collected B. nana leaves and subfossil leaf fragments collected from recent peat sections in northern Scandinavia, and climatic indices such as budburst date, growing‐season degree‐days and May–September mean temperatures, enable the establishment of a new micro‐phenological proxy for growing season characteristics. The applicability of the epidermal cell undulation index (UI) is tested by comparison with historical instrumental records of growing‐season degree‐days for the last 200 a. The results demonstrate the potential of the new leaf‐morphology‐based technique to reconstruct and quantify past changes in growing degree‐days beyond instrumental data series. Applied to abundant B. nana leaf remains from peat and lake sediments, the UI may enable a reconstruction of growing degree‐days throughout the Holocene and other parts of the late Quaternary. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium.

Any assessment of future climate change requires knowledge of the full range of natural variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Here we splice together fossil-coral oxygen isotopic records from Palmyra Island in the tropical Pacific Ocean to provide 30-150-year windows of tropical Pacific climate variability within the last 1,100 years. The records indicate mean climate conditions in the central tropical Pacific ranging from relatively cool and dry during the tenth century to increasingly warmer and wetter climate in the twentieth century. But the corals also document a broad range of ENSO behaviour that correlates poorly with these estimates of mean climate. The most intense ENSO activity within the reconstruction occurred during the mid-seventeenth century. Taken together, the coral data imply that the majority of ENSO variability over the last millennium may have arisen from dynamics internal to the ENSO system itself.