To evaluate the potential ceiling effect of high serum progesterone levels on the day of embryo transfer for pregnancy outcomes in patients undergoing artificial frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer (FET) cycles. This retrospective cohort study included 595 patients who underwent artificial FET cycles. We evaluated progesterone levels and found that 40.6 ng/mL corresponded to the 90th percentile and 23.9 ng/mL corresponded to the 50th percentile. Based on these findings, we categorized progesterone levels as <20 ng/mL (n=220, 37.0%), 20-40 ng/mL (n=312, 52.4%), and ≥40 ng/mL (n=63, 10.6%). The primary outcome measures were the clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) and live birth rate (LBR). Blastocyst morphology grades, including expansion, trophectoderm, and inner cell mass grades, were significantly associated with clinical pregnancy (p<0.001 for all). Progesterone levels between 20 and 40 ng/mL were associated with higher CPR (p=0.043). In the multivariate analysis, only blastocyst expansion and inner cell mass grades were independently and significantly associated with CPR [p=0.011, odds ratio (OR)=1.6, (confidence interval) CI 95%=1.13-2.39, and p=0.007, OR=1.65, CI 95%=1.14-2.39, respectively]. The progesterone level and trophectoderm grade were not statistically significant. Regarding LBR, only blastocyst expansion grades 4 and trophectoderm grades A or B were significantly associated. Based on these data, we speculate that if serum progesterone levels exceed 40 ng/mL on the day of embryo transfer in patients undergoing artificial FET cycles, there is no need to reduce the progesterone dose.
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