Frontier Economics Research Articles

Understanding the users and uses of UK Natural History Collections

UK natural science collections hold over 137 million items, an unrivalled source of data about 4.56 billion years of planetary development and hundreds of years of biological change, including the differences made by humans — but the scientific, commercial, and societal benefits of these collections are constrained by the limits of physical access, and by highly fragmented digitisation efforts with less than 10% digitally available. Following work with Frontier Economics in 2021, which showed potential for £2 billion in benefits to the UK economy from digitising all UK natural science collections, in 2022–23 the Natural History Museum London worked, with analytical support from McKinsey and Company, to understand the impact of what has already been digitised and shared by UK natural science collections — what is the demand for these data, what are they used for, and how does this deliver efficient, effective and impactful research? This study focuses on usage via the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the largest source of relevant usage data, examining 7.6 million records from twelve UK institutions. While these UK collections data are just 0.3% of total GBIF occurrences, they are cited in 12% of peer reviewed publications citing GBIF data, showing the disproportionate impact of UK collections data and the historical, geographical, and taxonomic richness that they bring. Researchers have already benefited from more than £18 million of efficiency savings from digital UK specimen data. Data from natural science collections held in the UK are uniquely impactful resources, vital to a future in which people and planet thrive, and a step change in the pace of digitisation is needed to unlock their potential for researchers, policymakers, and society.

Three years of minimum unit pricing in the Northern Territory, what does the evidence say?

Three years of minimum unit pricing in the Northern Territory, what does the evidence say?

The Value of Digitising Natural History Collections

The Natural History Museum, London has been creating digital data about collections for many years, with a formal Digital Collections Programme since 2014. Efforts to monitor the outcomes and impact of this work have focused on metrics of digital access, such as download events, and on citations of digital specimens as a measure of use. Digitisation projects and resulting research have also been used as impact case studies, highlighting areas such as human health and conservation. In 2021, the Museum decided to explore the economic impacts of collections data in more depth, and commissioned Frontier Economics to undertake modelling, resulting in this report. While the methods in this report are relevant to collections globally, this modelling focuses on benefits to the UK, and is intended to support the Museum’s own digitisation work, as well as a current scoping study funded by the Arts & Humanities Research Council about the case for digitising all UK natural science collections as a research infrastructure. This study focuses on digitisation in the round, not distinguishing between different collection types or levels of data creation at this stage. Three methods have been used: first, analysing five key thematic areas or sectors where data from natural science collections are likely to lead to benefits; secondly, analysing typical returns on investment in scientific research; and thirdly, examining the efficiency savings that can be reinvested in research if data are available freely and openly. Together, these methods confirm benefits in excess of £2 billion over 30 years, representing a seven to ten times return on investment.

An integrated approach of Ecological Footprint (EF) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in human ecology: A base for planning toward sustainability.

Environmental challenges to natural resources have been attributed to human behavior and traditional agricultural production techniques. Natural resource degradation in agriculture has always been a prime concern in agro ecological research and sustainability analysis. There are many techniques for assessing environmental performance; one of which, ecological footprint (EF), assesses human pressure on the environment and natural resources. The main purpose of this study was calculation of ecological indices including biocapacity (BC) and EF of rural areas of Fars province of Iran. The study was accomplished using survey and structured interviews consisting of three main questionnaires in two different steps. Different agricultural stakeholders, including farmers (for the first step) as well as the policymakers, extension managers and authorities (for the second step) were interviewed. Based on multi-stage stratified random sampling, 50 villages and 423 farmers were selected. Face validity and reliability of the questionnaires were assessed by a panel of specialists as well as conducting a pilot study, respectively. The paradigmatic perspectives of agricultural policy makers and managers (22 individuals) were also analyzed using another specific questionnaire by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Findings revealed that most of the studied villages faced a critical environmental condition due to the results of ecological indicator which was calculated in the study. According to the four main components of human ecology (POET model) including Population, Organization, Environment and Technology, village groups that differed in terms of sustainability level also showed significantly differences due to population, social participation, use of green technologies and attitude towards diverse environmental management paradigms. The causal model also revealed that population, green technology, social participation and attitude toward frontier economics, which were in accordance with the elements of human ecology model, were the main factors affecting the ecological index. Finally, AHP results determined the dominant economic perspectives of agricultural authorities. A paradigm shift toward the comprehensive paradigm of eco-development plus consideration of the results of the ecological indicator calculation as the base of agricultural planning at the local level were recommended.

CONSEQUENCES OF CRIMINAL OFFENSES: IMPACT ON THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF COUNTRIES AND OPENING IN THE GLOBALIZATION CONDITIONS

In the context of globalization, the development of foreign trade, the simplification of customs formalities, the strengthening of economic relations with the EU and other countries of the world are priorities of the foreign economic policy of most countries of the world. At the same time, the priority is to ensure national security, in particular, such components as economic, including customs, environmental security, protection of interests of public and private persons, domestic producers, compliance with the requirements of international pacts, other instruments ratified by a particular state. In this regard, particular attention is given today to the problems of international trade liberalization through customs policy instruments, in accordance with the International Convention (Kyoto Convention) on the simplification and harmonization of customs procedures dated 18 May 1973, the provisions of which concern cooperation with authorities, customs services, including those in the field of counteraction to customs offenses, which include any violation of customs legislation (Kyoto Convention, 1973). The key to the development of states' social security is the stability of receiving revenues to the budgets of all levels, which are paid by taxpayers in accordance with certain regulations on the basis of voluntariness. Despite the recognition of the urgent task of establishing close interaction and activation of common efforts to counter violations in this area, it is quite difficult to harmonize the provisions of current legal acts in the EU countries regarding the definition of such concepts as "smuggling", "counterfeit", etc. as a variety of offenses in the customs field, establishing the consequences and the main measures of responsibility for their commission. According to a study by Frontier Economics, each year, the counterfeit costs the G20 countries 2.5 million jobs and about $ 120 billion in lost taxes and increased costs of crime, the cost of treatment and death costs resulting from the use of dangerous counterfeit goods (Iliupolu, 2017). The urgency of detecting offenses in the customs field, the use of the most effective tools aimed at preventing their spread, stopping and preventing negative consequences can hardly be denied. At the same time, the quality of such instruments is characterized, on the one hand, by the indicators of securing the expected budgetary revenues, which will allow the implementation of the approved Government programs for social protection of the population, on the other – the maximum focus on maintaining positive gains in forming a favorable business climate, the possibility of continuation by them, activities in the field of economics in the regulatory field. This research is aimed at solving this problem. Methodology. The achievement of the purpose of this publication is based on the cognitive potential of a number of philosophical, general scientific and special methods. The main method of research, given the desire to determine the directions of development of national scientific opinion on the subject of the publication, was the dialectical methods of analysis and synthesis, the comparativelegal method allowed to identify promising measures to counteract these offenses, taking into account the experience of highly developed EU countries. Methods of grammatical consideration and interpretation of legal norms contributed to the identification of gaps and other shortcomings of the legislation governing the grounds and the procedure for bringing to justice the perpetrators of them, to develop proposals for its improvement. Practical implications. Experience of formation and development of quality assurance of legal institutions defining the principles of activity of subjects of the national security system is connected with the clarity of determining the consequences of offenses including, in the customs sphere, activation of means of their neutralization with the use of justifiable coercion, to the extent corresponding to public the dangers and consequences of such an offense.

Multi-criteria evaluation in paradigmatic perspectives of agricultural environmental management

Agriculture is one of the primary activities that affects the environment due to natural resources consumption. Therefore, systematic environmental management for the agricultural sector is required. This study was conducted to analyze the paradigmatic perspective and strategies of agricultural environmental management in Iran. Considering basic criteria of environmental management, three paradigms of frontier economics, eco-development and deep ecology were compared using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The AHP, is a multi-criteria decision making techniques which is useful when there are different alternatives or indicators in decision making. Comparisons were based on the viewpoints of 117 policy makers, superior managers and main elites and agriculture sector researchers. Environmental managerial strategies also have been studied. Findings revealed paradoxes among the paradigmatic perspectives and selected strategies of different agricultural stakeholders which reduce their effective interactions. Frontier economics is the dominant viewpoint of key agricultural policy makers and other governmental executives. They prefer independent reactive strategies to cope with environmental challenges. Agricultural researchers and private sector authorities believe in eco-development. They have selected cooperative proactive strategies in this regard. Finally, deep ecology has the highest priority according to environmental specialists, who endorse strategic maneuvering and believe in modifying, rethinking and redesigning previous strategies. A paradigm shift, as well as consistency between paradigmatic perspectives and executive strategies, is suggested.

The Veer from Frontier Economics to Eco-development Paradigm: Approaches, Policies and Strategies of Sustainable Development - The Case of Environmental Governance in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is one of the richest countries in natural resource endowment. Nevertheless, due to pressures from socioeconomic changes coupled with improper governance practices the country has been threatened by prolonged resource degradation with subsequent results. This paper was sought to assess paradigms, approaches, and strategies for sustainable development in case of environmental governance in Ethiopia. To achieve this objective, published and unpublished professional literature including important policy documents were reviewed. The institutional based environmental governance for sustainable use of natural resources in Ethiopia was started at the late of 19th C while Minilik II established central Government. The natural resource laws during Italian occupation (1936-41) focused on selection of economic forest and use-oriented paradigm. As a result natural resources were exploited in destructive way under a condition where there was no ownership. The environmental governance thinking/paradigm/ during the Haile Silassie regime was almost similar to previous one; frontier economics, rather than being ecological oriented. The misperception to natural resources; misguided intervention and irrational land distribution and tenure insecurity have led intensive natural degradation. After the Derg regime took the power, all natural resources were nationalized and governed through application of centralized frontier economics based on socialism ideology. Frequent redistribution of land, resettlement and villagization; involuntary participation of community weakened the effects of natural resource management practices applied during Derg regime. Political instability and civil war had its own sizable challenge on environmental governance. The environmental governance ideology, during EPRDF has been veered from pure frontier economics to Eco-development. Environmental issues have been handled by independent institutions through decentralized and local-community based approaches. Additionally, different bylaws and sustainable development strategies have been adopted by current government to handle environmental issues and have environmentally sustainable and green economic growth. However, still now, environmental governance is not successful and faces challenges from institutional instability; inadequate capacity and political commitment, feeble policy implementation &geophysical variables. Thus, all responsible bodies and key actors must work jointly to overcome challenges of environmental governance and realize environmentally sustainable development.

PARTICIPATING IN A HIGHLY AUTOMATED SOCIETY: HOW ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DISRUPTS THE JOB MARKET

On the basis on data collected from Accenture, The Economist, Frontier Economics, PitchBook, Tractica, authors performed analyses and made estimates regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on industry output: real gross value added in 2035, number of AI use cases by industry with high job impact, global merger-and-acquisition activity related to artificial intelligence, and the economic impact of AI on countries: annual growth rates by 2035 of gross value added.

Customer Response towards Non-deceptive Counterfeit Brands

<p>Universally counterfeiting is a very significant growing problem and profitable business, occurring both in less and well developed countries. A recent report in early February 2017 which published by Frontier Economics on the Behalf of the international Chamber of Commerce and BASCAP (Business Action to Stop Counterfeiting and Piracy), along with INTA (International Trademark Association), reports the value of international and domestic trade in counterfeit products in 2013 reached a total of $710 to $917 billion a year. The main purpose of this study that integrates the main predictors of consumer reaction towards non-deceptive counterfeit brands; to help companies understand the main factors influencing consumer behavior toward counterfeits brands and create effective anti-piracy approaches. The main contribution of the research is to demonstrate that consumer intentions to buy counterfeit products are dependent on the attitudes they have towards counterfeits, which in turn are more influenced by price sensitivity, social marketing communication, fashion consciousness, price quality schema, status seeking, perceived control behavior, subjective norms, product attributes, whether consumers have bought a counterfeit before and so on. The paper contributes to notify government and original brands managers about the main predictors of consumer’s attitudes towards counterfeiting.</p>

Book Review: ‘Economic Foundations of EU Competition’, in An Introduction to EU Competition Law, ed. Moritz Lorenz, by Julia Dietrich (Frontier Economics). (Cambridge University Press, 2013)

Book Review: ‘Economic Foundations of EU Competition’, in An Introduction to EU Competition Law, ed. Moritz Lorenz, by Julia Dietrich (Frontier Economics). (Cambridge University Press, 2013)

From frontier economics to an ecological economics of the oceans and coasts

Ecological economics is a field of enquiry that has had, with a few exceptions, an almost entirely terrestrial focus. Given the fundamental ecological and economic importance of oceanic and coastal ecosystems, and the accelerating deterioration of these ecosystems, we argue that there is an urgent case to redress this imbalance. In so doing, the scope of ecological economics will be extended and compelling insights developed and applied to better understand and govern marine systems. Although we acknowledge that there is no unequivocal or unitary view of what might constitute an ecological economics of the oceans and coasts, we assert that it should consist of at least ‘four cornerstones’: (1) sustainability as the normative goal; (2) an approach that sees the socio-economic system as a sub-system of the global ecological system; (3) a complex systems approach; and (4) transdisciplinarity and methodological pluralism. Using these four cornerstones, we identify a future research agenda for an ecological economics of the oceans and coasts. Specifically, we conclude that ecological economists must work with other disciplines, especially those involved in marine policy and practice, to move from a ‘frontier economics’ (which has dominated marine management) to entrench an ‘ecological economics’ of the oceans and coasts as the dominant paradigm.

Delayed Carbon Policy Certainty and Electricity Prices in Australia: A Concise Summary of Subsequent Research*

In this brief update on analysing the economic costs associated with carbon policy uncertainty, we outline the public policy processes commenced by the Commonwealth Government following the publication of Nelson et al. (2010). We also summarise the research completed by other economists testing the hypothesis that there are material economic costs associated with ongoing carbon policy uncertainty. Independent studies by Frontier Economics (2010), Deloitte (2011) and Sinclair Knight Merz (2011) all conclude that climate change policy uncertainty will result in sub‐optimal capital investment within the electricity sector. In turn, this sub‐optimal investment will manifest itself in unnecessary increases in electricity prices.

Frontier Economics: Why Entrepreneurial Capitalism is Needed Now More than Ever

Here in the United States and around the world, we have entered what might be called the era of “frontier economics.” Older, easier sources of growth are drying up and, as a result, the prospects for continued dynamism and prosperity hinge more than ever before on the pioneering entrepreneurial upstarts that explore and extend the technological frontier. As a consequence, the political imperative to maintain satisfactory economic performance is putting national economies under ongoing pressure to free up markets and knock down artificial barriers to competition - in other words, to make their particular versions of capitalism more entrepreneurial. The purpose of this paper is to offer a general explanation of this trend and the social forces driving it.

Energy Costs in Germany—Developments, Drivers and International Comparison

This article summarises results a study undertaken by Frontier Economics and the EWI for the German Ministry of Economics. The study makes progress in creating transparency of energy supply prices and cost (for electricity, gas and oil products) in Germany in an international context. In Germany most retail prices have increased significantly since 1998 and are at the highest level for most customer groups and products in international comparison. Main drivers that differentiate prices internationally are, duties and taxes, network tariffs, political interference with retail prices and the degree of end customer competition. Based on this analysis the authors recommend a review of the consistency of policy measures (especially taxes, duties, levies and subsidies) with the energy policy goals of price competitiveness, security of supply and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, the authors suggest further refining network regulation, enhancing competition in the retail sector and improving transparency of price information.

A grey literature review of the UK Department for Culture, Media and Sport's Creative Industries Economic Estimates and Creative Economy research programme

This is a review of the DCMS's annual estimates of the size, scope and activities of the UK's creative industries, with a particular focus on the latest publication in January 2009. Running parallel to these estimates is a research programme, latterly codified as the Creative Economy Programme (CEP), which constantly assesses and periodically modifies the methodologies used for collating statistics. This programme is also reviewed, primarily through two 2007 documents: a report commissioned from Frontier Economics and a DCMS overview of all the CEP's work in 2006–2007. The review also draws on primary sources in the form of national and international reports on methodologies for classifying and measuring the creative industries, as well as appropriate academic literature.

Environmental management in development: the evolution of paradigms

Environmental management and its relationship to human development are in a period of dramatic change. Societies are now beginning to have serious discussions about ‘sustainable development’, but there is still a great deal of confusion over what this means and how to achieve it. Conceptions of what is economically and technologically practical, ecologically necessary, and politically feasible are rapidly shifting. Implicit in changing strategies are differing philosophies of human—nature relationships. Five fundamental paradigms of environmental management in development, of human—nature relationships, are described. From the primordial dichotomy of ‘frontier economics’ versus ‘deep ecology’, paradigms of ‘environmental protection’, ‘resource management’, and ‘eco-development’ are evolving, in a progression which involves increasing integration of economic, ecological, and social systems into the definition of development and the organization of human societies. Each perceives different evidence, imperatives, and problems, and prescribes different solutions, strategies, technologies, roles for economic sectors, culture, governments, and ethics, etc. Each actually encompasses several schools of thought, not always in complete agreement, and there are also areas of overlap. The paper explores the distinctions, connections, and implications of these five paradigms for the future of environmental management in development.