Hydrological Drought Frequency Research Articles

A non-stationary impactquant framework for assessing the human activity impacts on hydrological drought in the Upper Red River

Hydrological drought (HD) in dynamic environments, particularly complicated by climate change and human activity, challenges traditional stationary-based research approaches. These challenges are particularly pronounced in the Upper Red River Basin characterized by complex topography and extensive human activity. To these issues, this study introduces non-stationarity in determining drought propagation time and develops a Non-Stationary ImpactQuant Framework (NSIQF) to assess human activity impacts on HD's frequency and propagation processes. Implementing non-stationarity involves using the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape to construct the Non-stationary Standardized Runoff Index (NSRI), which is employed for attribution analysis and determining drought propagation time. We systematically quantified human activity impacts by comparing NSRI with drought indices and propagation time derived from reconstructed natural runoff. Our findings indicate that the NSRI is more adept at capturing drought characteristics in changing environments than the traditional Standardized Runoff Index. The human activity impacts on HD in the study area exhibits distinct temporal characteristics. Human activity contributed to 42.64% of the HD at 12-month scales, and 29.28%, 17.68%,19.14%, and 24.82% in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. They prolonged the propagation time from meteorological drought to HD by 1–5 months. Land use change is a potential primary anthropogenic factor. Effective management and strategic interventions for predominantly agricultural activity constitute viable solutions to alleviate regional drought and enhance drought resistance.

Changes in Drought Characteristics in the Yellow River Basin during the Carbon-Neutral Period under Low-Emission Scenarios

Droughts have a severe impact on the environment and social economy, and predicting their future changes is challenging due to significant uncertainties in climate change and human activities. Many countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality to limit global warming; however, few studies have focused on drought changes during the carbon-neutral period. Here, we analyzed the variations in drought characteristics across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) during the carbon-neutral period under two low-emission scenarios from 7 CMIP6 model outputs. The results show that the temperature and precipitation will increase significantly during the 2015–2100 period under both SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios. Compared to the historical period (1979–2014), the hydrological drought frequency is projected to decrease by 15.5% (13.0–18.1%), while drought severity is expected to increase by 14.4% (13.2–15.7%) during the carbon-neutral period. Meteorological droughts exhibit a similar changing trend, although the results vary between different regions. In general, more severe hydrological droughts may occur in the southern YRB in the carbon-neutral period under low-emission scenarios. This study has implications for future drought mitigation within the Yellow River Basin.

Streamflow response to catastrophic windthrow and forest recovery in subalpine spruce forest

Windstorms account for about half of forest disturbances in Europe and are considered as drivers of natural regeneration of plant species, accompanied by significant changes in hydrological and soil moisture conditions. Our study aims to identify the effects of deforestation caused by catastrophic windthrow on streamflow characteristics in conjunction with meteorological and soil moisture data. The research was conducted in the headwater catchment (34.4 km2), in the Western Tatra Mountains, Poland. Streamflow characteristics such as average, high, and low flows, coefficient of variability, as well as flashiness of the streamflow (Richard-Baker Flashiness Index) and drought frequency (Standardised Streamflow Index) were calculated in the pre-event (2007–2013) and post-event (2013–2020) periods. The analysis was carried out for calendar months, seasons of the year, as well as for the growing and non-growing seasons. Wavelet Analysis was applied to track the changes in streamflow time series in relation to meteorological conditions (precipitation, air temperature) and remotely sensed soil wetness in the root zone. Principal Components Analysis was applied in order to identify the major drivers of the observed variability. The results revealed increasing low (+14%), average (+8%), and maximum monthly flows (16%) in the post-event period. The most significant increase in low flows (+47%, p<0.1) occurred during snowmelt. The increase in average (+31%, p<0.1) and high flows (+90%, p<0.05) occurred during mid-winter thaws. The frequency of hydrological droughts decreased by up to 36% in the post-event period, despite similar climatic conditions. The flashiness of streamflow increased during mid-winter thaws and rainfall events. The short-scale periodicity in streamflow increased in the post-event period. The results revealed the presence of 3-month periodicity in the root zone soil wetness associated with long-term soil water storage, which decreased after the catastrophic windthrow. Streamflow in the post-event period became strongly coupled with precipitation and root zone soil wetness at short period bands (∼3–16 days) in hydrologically active season. Short-scale correlation between precipitation and streamflow was decreasing with the gradual succession of vegetation.

When rain does not run, a fingerprint of uncoordinated water resources development

The management of water resources in a basin can be challenging due to the sharing of water resources among multiple stakeholders and conflicting interests. This often results in imbalanced water resource development across the basin. While small and medium-sized projects are efficiently implemented in the headwater and upstream areas, the commissioning of large reservoirs faces delays due to the substantial investment required and regulatory processes involved. Also, the lack of coordination and synchronization in water resource development between upstream and downstream regions can lead to water scarcity and inefficient utilization of resources in the lower part of the basin. In this study, we assess the occurrence of water scarcity by comparing the frequency of hydrological and meteorological droughts before and after the detected abrupt change in river flow. To facilitate this assessment, we introduced two new indices: the positive to negative phases of hydrological and meteorological droughts. These indices highlight the increasing occurrence of hydrological droughts, which may not necessarily be linked to meteorological droughts during the identified periods. Furthermore, we propose a Monotone drought analysis method to examine the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and address the impact of anthropogenic activities. We applied this analysis in the Sefid-Rud basin, the largest sub-basin in the southern Caspian Sea situated in Iran, which hosts several dams and reservoirs while more dams are in the construction and planning phase. The assessment took place in 24 gauges across the basin from 1978 to 2017 to detect and evaluate the alterations in flow regimes. Our analysis revealed that the unbalanced development of upstream water resources, driven by uncoordinated water infrastructure projects implemented by various decision-makers, has resulted in a decline of available water at critical points within the basin, which will be aggravated with the commissioning of new dams.

Evaluation of climate-change impacts on the temporal and spatial behaviour of drought in South-Central Chile

ABSTRACT Chile is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its geomorphology, ecological wealth and economic dependence on water resources, and has been facing a severe drought since 2010. The objective of this work is to propose a methodology able to project and evaluate changes in the magnitude, duration and frequency of meteorological and hydrological droughts, as a decision-making tool to support adaptation to climate change. Four basins were assessed using different downscaled General Circulation Models (GCM) and the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Results were evaluated using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) comparing drought events over two periods of time. An increase in magnitude and duration of meteorological droughts is projected, especially in the Andes Mountain range. Regarding hydrological drought, greater increases in magnitude and duration are projected for the Itata River Basin. In both types of droughts, an increase in frequency is expected.

Challenges of typical inter-basin water transfer projects in China: Anticipated impacts of climate change on streamflow and hydrological drought under CMIP6

Inter-basin water transfer projects are critical for economic development in water scarcity regions. However, the streamflow reduction and the frequent dry extremes in a warming environment raise significant concerns regarding the sustainability of such projects. Based on the latest CMIP6 data, hydrological model, Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), and run theory, this study systemically examined the future streamflow and hydrological drought changes in the Hanjiang to Weihe River Water Diversion Project (HWWDP) area, China. Significantly, as the most challenging project management scenario, the response of spatially compound hydrological drought (i.e., concurrent hydrological drought in both the water intake and receiving area) was further revealed. This analysis offers the potential to yield novel insights into the prospective management strategies for the HWWDP. The investigation covers the baseline period (1971–2014) and future periods (2021–2100) under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The outcomes demonstrate a decline in annual average streamflow of 5.0–6.4 (SSP245) hundred million cubic meters in the water receiving area and 4.6–7.5 (SSP245) and 3.4–8.1 (SSP585) hundred million cubic meters in the water intake area, respectively, compared to the baseline period. Furthermore, hydrological drought frequency may increase in both the water receiving and source areas, particularly in the summer under SSP585. The duration, severity, and peak intensity of hydrological drought events in the receiving area are expected to exacerbate due to climate change, while those impacts on water intake area should be relatively minor. The spatially compound hydrological drought is expected to occur more frequently in different months except April. The conditional probabilities of spatially compound hydrological drought occurrence may rise by 5.2%-18.7% (SSP245) and 5.9%-20.4% (SSP585) in different months when drought occurs in the water intake area. Moreover, higher probabilities are expected to be observed from April to October when the water receiving area experiences drought. These findings underscore the necessity for adaptive climate change management of the HWWDP to address the future reduction in streamflow and more severe hydrological drought.

ПОВТОРЯЕМОСТЬ ЗАСУХ НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ БЕЛАРУСИ В СВЯЗИ С АТМОСФЕРНОЙ ЦИРКУЛЯЦИЕЙ В АТЛАНТИКО-ЕВРОПЕЙСКОМ СЕКТОРЕ

In the paper, the frequency and spatial distribution of atmospheric and hydrological droughts over the territory of Belarus in 1945-2020 is assessed. Aridity is evaluated using the standardized precipitation and streamflow indices (SPI and SSFI). Trends in monthly total precipitation are determined, the features of the streamflow formation during the open-channel period are revealed. The frequency of anticyclones that determines hydrometeorological conditions on the territory of Belarus is calculated. The statistically significant increase in the number of the days with anticyclonic weather over the country during the warm season is found. The increasing frequency of dry conditions in summer months against the background of a rise in the precipitation intensity is highlighted. A simultaneous increase in the frequency of very-low-flow periods on rivers and an increase in the height of warm rainfall floods in some river basins are revealed.

Analysis of future meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characterization under climate change in Kessie watershed, Ethiopia

The objective of this study is to analyze future drought characteristics in meteorological, hydrology, and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Kessie watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, using three drought indices; Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) and Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI), respectively. The study used baseline data (1985–2014) and future (2041–2100) downscaled from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP-6) based on the three Global Climate Models (GCMs) projections under two scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) with well-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate future streamflow for two future time horizons 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). Based on the yearly time scale, our results indicate that droughts of a high magnitude and rising frequency would affect most of the research area. These droughts will be either meteorological (RDI), agricultural (aSPI), or hydrological (SDI). Short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts are also anticipated to occur more frequently. The projected increases in frequency and trend of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this area are greater due to the anticipated drop in annual rainfall and the larger increase in mean annual temperature in the middle of Kessie. Furthermore, compared to hydrological and agricultural droughts, meteorological drought is less vulnerable to climate change; but, as the accumulation period lengthens, a stronger association develops between hydrological and agricultural droughts. These findings may be useful for water resources management and future planning for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change impact in the study area.

Future changes in hydrological drought across the Yangtze River Basin: identification, spatial–temporal characteristics, and concurrent probability

Hydrological droughts have caused greater damage due to climate change and rapid socio-economic development. Exploring future hydrological drought variations is imperative for drought defense and infrastructure construction. This study aims to investigate future changes in hydrological droughts across the Yangtze River Basin during 2025 ∼ 2100. The Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model coupled with the Standard Operation Policy module (DTVGM-SOP) was employed to project future runoff driven by the bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data. Subsequently, future spatial–temporal changes in the characteristics of hydrological droughts were analyzed based on the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). Lastly, future changes in the probability of concurrent hydrological droughts were evaluated using the bivariate copula functions. Results show that: (1) The DTVGM-SOP model can satisfactorily simulate monthly streamflow with a high Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) of 0.75 ∼ 0.92. Future annual maximum discharge and annual average discharge in the mainstream and the northern tributaries are expected to increase by 3.34%∼58.19% and 3.11%∼32.66% respectively, while annual maximum discharge in the southern tributaries decreases by 0.54%∼20.09%. (2) The future annual and seasonal hydrological drought frequency is expected to decrease in most regions, while the frequency in spring increases in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau. The duration and severity of future hydrological droughts are expected to decrease by 9.52%∼78.69% and 5.13%∼81.36% in the whole basin except the source area and the Yalong River Basin. (3) Future concurrent hydrological droughts will be mitigated with decreasing frequency. The probability of concurrent hydrological droughts is expected to decrease by 46.15%∼96.47%, while future changes in the conditional probability of the mainstream are diverse in different concurrent scenarios with a range of −93.41%∼40.09%. The findings are helpful to improve the understanding of future hydrological drought variations in the Yangtze River Basin and provide essential information for damage reduction.

Univariate and Bivariate Hydrological Drought Frequency Analysis by Copula Functions

Univariate and Bivariate Hydrological Drought Frequency Analysis by Copula Functions

Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Hydrological Drought Using Copula: A Case Study of Northern Iraq

In this research work, copula-based methodology is adopted to analyze the hydrological drought frequency. Standardized Runoff Index SRI was calculated using monthly-streamflow data for 50 years of two gauging stations in the northern region of Iraq. The drought duration and severity were extracted using run theory. Three Archimedean family and Gaussian copulas were used and compared to select the most appropriate copula model for bivariate frequency analysis of hydrological-drought characteristics. The dependence between drought duration and drought severity was estimated by Pearson's, Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau correlations. Various probability distributions were utilized to determine the best fit marginal distributions for drought characteristic variables based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Chi-squared statistics. Uni-variate and joint return periods were estimated and compared. Generally, the results indicate that Archimedean copulas performed better than the Gaussian copulas. Exponential and Weibull distributions are the best fit for drought duration and severity, respectively, except for drought severity in case of the 9-month time scale at Lesser Zab region, where lognormal distribution was chosen. The current study can give helpful information for drought-risk assessment and water-resource management under climate change. KEYWORDS: Hydrological drought, Copula, SRI, Greater Zab river, Lesser Zab river, Bivariate return periods.

Comparative Analysis of Drought Indices in Hydrological Monitoring in Ceará’s Semi-Arid Basins, Brazil

The purpose of this work is to evaluate the applicability of five drought indices (Surface Water Supply Index—SWSI, Reclamation Drought Index—RDI, Streamflow Drought Index—SDI, Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI, and Evaporative Demand Drought Index—EDDI) as tools for monitoring, in identifying the duration, intensity, and frequency of hydrological droughts in the basins of the Banabuiú, Castanhão, and Orós reservoirs, located in the state of Ceará, Brazil. The analysis focused on determining the performance of the indexes for capturing the droughts characteristics from 2002 to 2020. Thus, the comparison of the values of the indexes with the Target Levels of the reservoir’s operation were used, as well as the analysis of six decision criteria: robustness, tractability, transparency, sophistication, extensibility, and dimensionality, to compare the behavior of drought indices. The results of the evaluation criteria showed that the SPI was superior to the other indices, being able to significantly represent the drought episodes, capturing a greater number of events. Thus, SPI received the highest total weighted score (118), followed by SWSI (97), EDDI (95), SDI (95), and RDI (88). In this context, it was found that the SPI and SWSI are the most suitable indices to monitor drought in the region and that the use of longer time scales can be recommended to manage hydrological droughts, in order to improve planning and management of water resources.

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Propagation of Meteoro-Hydrological Drought in Yalong River Basin

Based on the meteorological and hydrological data of the Yalong River Basin from 1960 to 2019, meteorological and hydrological droughts were analyzed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized runoff index (SRI); then, the spatio-temporal evolution and propagation characteristics of the droughts were studied on multiple time scales. The results showed that, firstly, on the annual scale, the frequencies of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the basin were 28.3% and 34.0%, respectively, in the past 60 years. From upstream to downstream, the longer the alternating period of dry and wet periods, the more significant the frequency of droughts. Secondly, on a seasonal scale, the frequency of meteorological droughts is high in autumn, and the frequency of hydrological drought is high in autumn and winter. The frequency of drought in different seasons decreases from the upper reaches to the lower reaches of the basin. Thirdly, on a monthly scale, the severe and exceptional meteorological drought frequencies are high from March to May, and the severe and exceptional hydrological drought frequencies are high in January, March, October, and December. The frequency of hydrological droughts is much higher than that of meteorological droughts, especially with respect to severe and exceptional drought. Meteorological and hydrological droughts spread in the same period without lag, but they tend to expand. The propagation time of drought is short in summer and autumn, but long in spring and winter. The conclusions can serve as a decision-making basis for the water diversion planning of the west route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the cascade hydropower operation of the basin.

Hydrological Drought Frequency Analysis in Water Management Using Univariate Distributions

The study of extreme phenomena in hydrology generally involves frequency analysis and a time series analysis. In this article we provide enough mathematics to enable hydrology researchers to apply a wide range of probability distributions in frequency analyses of hydrological drought. The article presents a hydrological drought frequency analysis methodology for the determination of minimum annual flows, annual drought durations and annual deficit volumes for exceedance probabilities common in water management. Eight statistical distributions from different families and with different numbers of parameters are used for the frequency analysis. The method of ordinary moments and the method of linear moments are used to estimate the parameters of the distributions. All the mathematical characteristics necessary for the application of the eight analyzed distributions, for the method of ordinary moments and the method of linear moments, are presented. The performance of the analyzed distributions is evaluated using relative mean error and relative absolute error. For the frequency analysis of the annual minimum flows, only distributions that have a lower bound close to the annual minimum value should be used, a defining characteristic having the asymptotic distributions at this value. A case study of hydrological drought frequency analysis is presented for the Prigor River. We believe that the use of software without the knowledge of the mathematics behind it is not beneficial for researchers in the field of technical hydrology; thus, the dissemination of mathematical methods and models is necessary. All the research was conducted within the Faculty of Hydrotechnics.

Intensification of Global Hydrological Droughts Under Anthropogenic Climate Warming

AbstractAnthropogenic climate warming is expected to accelerate the hydrological cycle with significant consequences for hydrological droughts. However, a systematic understanding of climate warming impacts on the global hydrological droughts and their driving mechanisms is still lacking. Here, we integrate bias‐corrected climate experiments, multiple hydrological models (HYs), and a multivariate analysis of variance (ANOVA) with a machine learning modeling framework, to examine the evolving frequency and multivariate characteristics of hydrological droughts and their mechanisms under climate warming for 6,688 catchments in the five principal Köppen‐Geiger climate zones. Results show that the total frequency of hydrological droughts is likely to stay unchanged while extreme hydrological droughts (e.g., events with a 30 yr joint return period, JRP) are projected to occur more frequently across the 21st century. The historical 30 yr JRP events assessed during the historical baseline period of 1985–2014 could become twice as frequent over ∼60% of global catchments by 2071–2100 under the middle and high emission scenarios (ESs). Climate uncertainty (i.e., from global climate models and ESs) is the major source of uncertainty over temperate and tropical catchments, versus HY uncertainty in arid catchments with locally complex runoff regimes. Our machine learning framework indicates that precipitation stress controls the development of historical droughts over ∼87% of global catchments. However, with climate warming, air temperature variations are expected to become the new primary driver of droughts in high‐latitude cold catchments. This study highlights an increasing risk of global extreme hydrological droughts with warming and suggests that rising temperatures in high latitudes may lead to more extreme hydrological droughts.

Meteorological and hydrological drought hazard, frequency and propagation analysis: A case study in southeast Australia

Study regionSoutheast Australia. Study focusWe investigated meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI). Drought Hazard Index (DHI) was derived based on the probability of drought occurrence and Thiessen polygons using SPI/EDI, whereas Drought Frequency Index (DFI) was derived based on number of drought events, and data length using SPI, EDI, and SSFI. The modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect trends in streamflow data and hydrological droughts. Furthermore, correlation between meteorological and hydrological drought indices for different timesteps was assessed through Pearson’s and Spearman’s rank correlation analysis. Finally, the drought propagation time (DPT) from meteorological to hydrological drought was estimated by ‘theory of run.’ New hydrological insights for the regionOur major findings include: (i) The spatial coverage of DHI and DFI, based on SPI/EDI, illustrate that mainly south and coastal regions of the study area are the most ‘drought-prone’ (ii) A considerable proportion of streamflow stations shows a significant trend of decrease in annual streamflow, with the most dominant year of abrupt change is 1996; (iii) Hydrological droughts are increasing in the study area; (iv) Performance of EDI with SSFI is found to be better than SPI at 3-month timestep; and (v) DPT can be found using ‘theory of run’ however, defined DPT cannot be directly applied to other regions.

Shifting of Meteorological to Hydrological Drought Risk at Regional Scale

The drought along with climate variation has become a serious issue for human society and the ecosystem in the arid region like the Soan basin (the main source of water resources for the capital of Pakistan and the Pothohar arid region). The increasing concerns about drought in the study area have brought about the necessity of spatiotemporal analysis and assessment of the linkage between different drought types for an early warning system. Hence, the streamflow drought index (SDI) and standard precipitation index (SPI) were used for the analysis of the spatiotemporal variations in hydrological and meteorological drought, respectively. Furthermore, statistical approaches, including regression analysis, trend analysis using Mann Kendall, and moving average, have been used for investigation of the linkage between these drought types, the significance of the variations, and lag time identification, respectively. The overall analysis indicated an increase in the frequency of both hydrological and meteorological droughts during the last three decades. Moreover, a strong linkage between hydrological and meteorological droughts was found; and this relationship varied on the spatiotemporal scale. Significant variations between hydrological and meteorological droughts also resulted during the past three (3) decades. These discrepancies would be because of different onset and termination times and specific anthropogenic activities in the selected basin for the minimization of hydrological drought. Conclusively, the present study contributes to comprehending the linkage between hydrological and meteorological droughts and, thus, could have a practical use for local water resource management practices at the basin scale.

Hydrological Extremes in the Upper Yangtze River Over the Past 700 yr Inferred From a Tree Ring δ18O Record

AbstractOngoing global warming has a strong influence on regional hydrological cycles. The upper reaches of the Yangtze River (UYR) are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological droughts and floods, but a lack of long‐term streamflow observations has limited our understanding on global warming influences. Here, we establish an annually resolved and absolutely dated tree‐ring oxygen (δ18O) isotope chronology and use it to reconstruct the summer streamflow history of the UYR between 1260 and 2017. The UYR experienced 79 extreme floods and 107 extreme hydrological droughts over this period. We found a trend toward dry conditions in the region with tendencies for an increased drought probability since around 1850s. Especially, the frequency of hydrological droughts in recent decades has been outside the envelope of natural variability of extreme hydrological droughts. The temporal evolution of hydrological extremes is closely linked to variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) at decadal scales. The UYR has experienced more frequent droughts during dry spells and experienced more frequent floods during wet spells of the ISM. The recent increase in the frequency of hydrological droughts is consistent with the observed trend toward a weaker ISM and increasing temperatures. Weaker transport of low‐level moisture and greater evaporation caused by global warming have contributed to the increase in extreme hydrological droughts. Our results thus provide a long‐term context for observed hydrological changes and suggest that the UYR will experience more frequent and severe extreme events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

Dynamics of pathogens and fecal indicators during riverbank filtration in times of high and low river levels

Riverbank filtration is an established and quantitatively important approach to mine high-quality raw water for drinking water production. Bacterial fecal indicators are routinely used to monitor hygienic raw water quality, however, their applicability in viral contamination has been questioned repeatedly. Additionally, there are concerns that the increasing frequency and intensity of meteorological and hydrological events, i.e., heavy precipitation and droughts leading to high and low river levels, may impair riverbank filtration performance. In this study, we explored the removal of adenovirus compared with several commonly used bacterial and viral water quality indicators during different river levels. In a seasonal study, water from the Rhine River, a series of groundwater monitoring wells, and a production well were regularly collected and analyzed for adenovirus, coliphages, E. coli, C. perfringens, coliform bacteria, the total number of prokaryotic cells (TCC), and the number of virus-like particles (TVPC) using molecular and cultivation-based assays. Additionally, basic physico-chemical parameters, including temperature, pH, dissolved organic carbon, and nutrients, were measured. The highest log10 reduction during the >72 m of riverbank filtration from the river channel to the production well was observed for coliforms (>3.7 log10), followed by E. coli (>3.4 log10), somatic coliphages (>3.1 log10), C. perfringens (>2.5 log10), and F+ coliphages (>2.1 log10) at high river levels. Adenovirus decreased by 1.6–3.1 log units in the first monitoring well (>32 m) and was not detected in further distant wells. The highest removal efficiency of adenovirus and most other viral and bacterial fecal indicators was achieved during high river levels, which were characterized by increased numbers of pathogens and indicators. During low river levels, coliforms and C. perfringens were occasionally present in raw water at the production well. Adenovirus, quantified via droplet digital PCR, correlated with E. coli, somatic coliphages, TCC, TVPC, pH, and DOC at high river levels. At low river levels, adenoviruses correlated with coliforms, TVPC, pH, and water travel time. We conclude that although standard fecal indicators are insufficient for assessing hygienic raw water quality, a combination of E. coli, coliforms and somatic coliphages can assess riverbank filtration performance in adenovirus removal. Furthermore, effects of extreme hydrological events should be studied on an event-to-event basis at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Finally, there is an urgent need for a lower limit of detection for pathogenic viruses in natural waters. Preconcentration of viral particles from larger water volumes (>100 L) constitutes a promising strategy.

Unravelling the role of vegetation on the different trends between climatic and hydrologic drought in headwater catchments of Spain

The availability of water resources is a major challenge of the Mediterranean region. Intense land use transformation has impacted the headwaters of river basins that generate most of the water resources, reducing streamflow This study analyses the evolution of hydrological and climatic drought in headwater catchments of Spain and it explores the extent to which vegetation can reinforce trends in hydrological drought severity in comparison to the evolution of cFlimatic drought severity. We have used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and Standardized Streamflow Index to examine hydrological and climatic drought, respectively, and examined the changes in the frequency, magnitude, and duration of climatic and hydrologic droughts over non-perturbed headwater catchments of Spain from 1961 to 2013. We quantified vegetation changes over time in the analysed catchments and we compared the changes in the climatic and hydrological droughts with changes in vegetation coverage using Pearson’s r correlations and linear regression model. The results show that the trends toward higher frequency, duration and severity of hydrological droughts are more marked than the observed trends in climatic droughts, which can be associated to the dominant increase in vegetation coverage and activity in the study domain. Finally, it is concluded that the spatial differences observed between the trends of climatic and hydrological droughts show some relationship with the patterns of forest succession observed in recent decades. Our results stress the relevance of land transformation processes on trends in water resources availability, particularly during periods of climatic droughts in which competence between vegetation water consumption and streamflow production is much more relevant.