Frequency Of Extreme Precipitation Events Research Articles

The impact of precipitation changes on the safety of railway operations in China under the background of climate change

Global climate change has intensified the water cycle, leading to frequent extreme precipitation events, posing a significant threat to railway infrastructure and safety operations. Based on the analysis of past and future precipitation changes in China, this study investigates the impact of climate change on railway safety operations. The study reveals the following findings: (1) Under the influence of the intensified East Asian summer monsoon and the northward shift of the subtropical high during the 2017–2021 compared to the 2012–2016, precipitation has significantly decreased (120 mm) in the regions south of the Yangtze River and South China, while it has increased (60 mm) in the regions from the eastern of Northwest China to the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River; The operational precipitation risk has decreased for Urumqi, Lanzhou, Qinghai-Tibet Group, Xi’an, and Wuhan railway bureaus (abbreviated as Bureau), while it has increased for Nanchang, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Shanghai, and Shenyang Bureaus. Particularly noteworthy is that despite a decrease in total annual precipitation for Nanchang bureau (15.3 mm/a), the frequency of intense precipitation events has increased, leading to an increased operational precipitation risk. (2) During the 21st century, under high (SSP5-8.5), medium (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) forcing scenarios, all projections indicate that most of the China will experience an increasing trend in precipitation, with significant increases in precipitation observed in the regions south of the Yangtze Rive, South and Southwest China. The higher the greenhouse gas emissions, the more pronounced the increasing trend in precipitation. (3) Compared to the 20th century, under high (SSP5-8.5), medium (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) forcing scenarios, all projections indicate that the total annual precipitation hours, railway inspection, speed limit, and closure risk hours have all increased on a national scale during the 21st century. The operational precipitation risk for railways has also increased. The higher the alert level for railway precipitation (precipitation < inspection < speed limit < closure), the higher the proportion of risk hours compared to the 20th century. By the late 21st century, the railway inspection, speed limit, and closure risk hours have increased by 175%, 463%, and 647%, respectively, compared to the 20th century.

Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation over Northern Mexico

Abstract Northern Mexico is home to more than 32 million people and is of significant agricultural and economic importance for the country. The region includes three distinct hydroclimatic regions, all of which regularly experience severe dryness and flooding and are highly susceptible to future changes in precipitation. To date, little work has been done to characterize future trends in either mean or extreme precipitation over northern Mexico. To fill this gap, we investigate projected precipitation trends over the region in the NA-CORDEX ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations. We first verify that these simulations accurately reproduce observed precipitation over northern Mexico, as derived from the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) product, demonstrating that the NA-CORDEX ensemble is appropriate for studying precipitation trends over the region. By the end of the century, simulations forced with a high-emissions scenario project that both mean and extreme precipitation will decrease to the west and increase to the east of the Sierra Madre highlands, decreasing the zonal gradient in precipitation. We also find that the North American monsoon, which is responsible for a substantial fraction of the precipitation over the region, is likely to start later and last approximately three weeks longer. The frequency of extreme precipitation events is expected to double throughout the region, exacerbating the flood risk for vulnerable communities in northern Mexico. Collectively, these results suggest that the extreme precipitation-related dangers that the region faces, such as flooding, will increase significantly by the end of the century, with implications for the agricultural sector, economy, and infrastructure. Significance Statement Northern Mexico regularly experiences severe flooding and its important agricultural sector can be heavily impacted by variations in precipitation. Using high-resolution climate model simulations that have been tested against observations, we find that these hydroclimate extremes are likely to be exacerbated in a warming climate; the dry (wet) season is projected to receive significantly less (more) precipitation (approximately ±10% by the end of the century). Simulations suggest that some of the changes in precipitation over the region can be related to the North American monsoon, with the monsoon starting later in the year and lasting several weeks longer. Our results also suggest that the frequency of extreme precipitation will increase, although this increase is smaller than that projected for other regions, with the strongest storms becoming 20% more frequent per degree of warming. These results suggest that this region may experience significant changes to its hydroclimate through the end of the century that will require significant resilience planning.

Regulatory effects of non-growing season precipitation on the community structure, biomass allocation, and water-carbon utilization in a temperate desert steppe

Under the influence of global change, precipitation amounts and extreme precipitation frequency during non-growing seasons in mid-high latitude grasslands have been increasing. However, the ecological effects of non-growing season precipitation in the desert steppe have long been overlooked due to an insufficient understanding of the correlative mechanisms linking non-growing season precipitation to plant growth. Therefore, a 3-year non-growing season precipitation manipulation experiment was conducted to reveal the response of desert steppe plants to non-growing season precipitation changes. Our study indicates that, by influencing water budget and availability, non-growing season precipitation directly or indirectly impacted community structure, plant biomass allocation, and water-carbon utilization intensity. Adaptive strategies of communities and plants included: ① Dominant species enhanced their dominance in the community to adapt to non-growing season precipitation changes. ② Stipa krylovii exhibited different biomass allocation strategies in response to non-growing season precipitation variations. Plants in the precipitation shading plots tended to allocate biomass to the roots, while those in the precipitation increase plots favored aboveground development. ③ Persistent drought during the growing season intensified early insufficient development of plants in the precipitation shading plots. Upon entering the wet period, plants in the precipitation shading plots shifted into a compensatory growth mode with high water-carbon activity intensity, while those in the precipitation increase plots entered a moderate growth mode with relatively low water-carbon activity intensity. Additionally, our study found that the regulatory effects of non-growing season precipitation were more pronounced in the growing seasons with less precipitation in the early to middle stage. Moreover, increased non-growing season precipitation enhanced plant water use efficiency (WUE) and strengthened their resilience to drought conditions. Our study suggests that the ecological role of non-growing season precipitation may be further highlighted in the future climate change pattern. Given the worldwide increase in frequency of extreme precipitation events, particular vigilance should be paid to the underlying long-term adverse effects of severe droughts during the non-growing season. Our findings provide new insights and valuable experimental observational evidence for the climate change impact assessment and response in xerophytic grassland ecosystems.

Genetic diversity and candidate genes for transient waterlogging tolerance in mungbean at the germination and seedling stages.

Mungbean [Vigna radiata var. radiata (L.) Wilczek] production in Asia is detrimentally affected by transient soil waterlogging caused by unseasonal and increasingly frequent extreme precipitation events. While mungbean exhibits sensitivity to waterlogging, there has been insufficient exploration of germplasm for waterlogging tolerance, as well as limited investigation into the genetic basis for tolerance to identify valuable loci. This research investigated the diversity of transient waterlogging tolerance in a mini-core germplasm collection of mungbean and identified candidate genes for adaptive traits of interest using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) at two critical stages of growth: germination and seedling stage (i.e., once the first trifoliate leaf had fully-expanded). In a temperature-controlled glasshouse, 292 genotypes were screened for tolerance after (i) 4 days of waterlogging followed by 7 days of recovery at the germination stage and (ii) 8 days of waterlogging followed by 7 days of recovery at the seedling stage. Tolerance was measured against drained controls. GWAS was conducted using 3,522 high-quality DArTseq-derived SNPs, revealing five significant associations with five phenotypic traits indicating improved tolerance. Waterlogging tolerance was positively correlated with the formation of adventitious roots and higher dry masses. FGGY carbohydrate kinase domain-containing protein was identified as a candidate gene for adventitious rooting and mRNA-uncharacterized LOC111241851, Caffeoyl-CoA O-methyltransferase At4g26220 and MORC family CW-type zinc finger protein 3 and zinc finger protein 2B genes for shoot, root, and total dry matter production. Moderate to high broad-sense heritability was exhibited for all phenotypic traits, including seed emergence (81%), adventitious rooting (56%), shoot dry mass (81%), root dry mass (79%) and SPAD chlorophyll content (70%). The heritability estimates, marker-trait associations, and identification of sources of waterlogging tolerant germplasm from this study demonstrate high potential for marker-assisted selection of tolerance traits to accelerate breeding of climate-resilient mungbean varieties.

Extreme precipitation trends in Northeast China based on a non-stationary generalized extreme value model

AbstractNortheast China is the main food production base of China. Extreme precipitation (EP) events can seriously impact agricultural production and socioeconomics, but the understanding of EP in Northeast China is still limited. In this study, using the non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) model, we investigate the trend and potential risk of EP in Northeast China during 1959–2017, especially in early and mid-summer (periods of high frequency of EP). Then, the relationships between EP and large-scale circulation over Northeast China in early and mid-summer are analyzed separately. The EP in Northeast China mainly presents positive trends in early summer but negative trends in mid-summer. Meanwhile, the EP with all the return periods presents apparently increasing trends in early summer, corresponding to more frequent EP events. Nevertheless, in mid-summer, the EP with 2-year return period decreases with location parameter, and the EP with 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods slightly increases with scale parameter. The EP with 2-year return period occurs frequently in Liaoning Province, while the EP with 100-year return period is more likely to occur in Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province. Moreover, the increase of the EP in early summer is mainly influenced by the northeast cold vortex; the effect of cold air on the EP is stronger in mid-summer, giving a clear explanation why the EP in mid-summer does not increase significantly. Overall, the outcomes of this study would be beneficial for the disaster prevention and mitigation in Northeast China.

Space–Time Characterization of Extreme Precipitation Indices for the Semiarid Region of Brazil

Various indices of climate variability and extremes are extensively employed to characterize potential effects of climate change. Particularly, the semiarid region of Brazil is influenced by adverse effects of these changes, especially in terms of precipitation. In this context, the main objective of the present study was to characterize the regional trends of extreme precipitation indices in the semiarid region of Brazil (SAB), using daily precipitation data from the IMERG V06 product, spanning the period from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2020. Twelve extreme precipitation indices were considered, which were estimated annually, and their spatial and temporal trends were subsequently analyzed using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope. The analysis revealed that the peripheral areas of the SAB, especially in the northwest and extreme south regions, exhibited higher intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events compared to the central portion of the area. However, a negative trend in event intensity was noted in the north, while positive trends were identified in the south. The frequency of extreme events showed a predominance of negative trends across most of the region, with an increase in consecutive dry days particularly throughout the western SAB. The average total precipitation index was above 1000 mm in the north of the SAB, whereas in the central region, the precipitation averages were predominantly below 600 mm, with rainfall intensity values ranging between 6 and 10 mm/day. Over the span of 20 years, the region underwent an average of 40 consecutive dry days in certain localities. A negative trend was observed in most of the indices, indicating a reduction in precipitation intensity in future decades, with variations in some indices. The dry years observed towards the end of the analyzed period likely contributed to the observed negative trends in the majority of extreme precipitation indices. Such trends directly impact the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in the SAB. The study is important for highlighting and considering the impacts of changes in precipitation extremes in the semiarid region of Brazil. Based on the obtained results, we advocate the implementation of public policies to address future challenges, such as incorporating adaptations in water resource management, sustainable agricultural practices, and planning for urban and rural areas.

The impact of electrical hazards from overhead power lines on urban search and rescue operations during extreme flood events

Accurate flood forecasting and efficient emergency response operations are vital, especially in the case of urban flash floods. The dense distribution of power lines in urban areas significantly impacts search and rescue operations during extreme flood events. However, no existing emergency response frameworks have incorporated the impacts of overhead power lines on lifeboat rescue operations. This study aims to determine the necessity and feasibility of incorporating overhead power line information into an emergency response framework using Manville, New Jersey during Hurricane Ida as a test bed. We propose an integrated framework, which includes a building-scale flood model, urban point cloud data, a human vulnerability model, and network analysis, to simulate rescue operation feasibility during Hurricane Ida. Results reveal that during the most severe point of the flood event, 46% of impacted buildings became nonrescuable due to complete isolation from the road network, and a significant 67.7% of the municipality’s areas that became dangerous for pedestrians also became inaccessible to rescue boats due to overhead power line obstruction. Additionally, we identify a continuous 10-hour period during which an average of 43.4% of the 991 impacted buildings faced complete isolation. For these structures, early evacuation emerges as the sole means to prevent isolation. This research highlights the pressing need to consider overhead power lines in emergency response planning to ensure more effective and targeted flood resilience measures for urban areas facing increasingly frequent extreme precipitation events.

Exposure of the US population to extreme precipitation risk has increased due to climate change

The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the early twenty-first century have already proven to be increasing at a rate more quickly than previously anticipated. Currently, the biggest consequence of the change in extreme precipitation is the lack of a climate-adjusted national standard taking into account these recent increases that could be used to prevent life and property loss from catastrophic precipitation-driven floods. Here, we address how severe the change in extreme precipitation compares against the current national standard for precipitation climatology (NOAA Atlas 14) and how much of the population is affected by the underestimation of this risk in the contiguous United States (CONUS). As a result, extreme precipitation in the early twenty-first century has outpaced our current national standard in half of CONUS, and the heavy precipitation events experienced recently are quickly becoming a “new normal”, which will increase in severity and frequency in a continually changing climate. Over three-quarters of the U.S. population will likely experience this new normal occurrence of extreme precipitation. As much as one-third of the population is expected to experience the current definition of a 1-in-100-year storm as often as three times in their lifetime. Additionally, the current precipitation standards for designing transportation infrastructure and urban stormwater drainage systems that are built upon Atlas 14 may be insufficient to protect the public's safety and personal/community property from severe flooding. Areas where flood risk is mitigated by operating hydraulic and adaptation structures urgently need to assess the impact of the increased-hourly extreme precipitation and reevaluate their applicable operation rules. Understanding and predicting patterns and the likelihood of short-duration heavy precipitation would be beneficial in preparing for severe precipitation-driven disasters, such as flash floods and landslides, which would happen more frequently in a changing climate. Following the results of this analysis, accelerating the development and dissemination of the next generation of the national standard that has been climatically adjusted to adapt to the new normal is strongly recommended.

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Water under the bridge: how place meanings shape second homeowners’ engagement in flood risk management in southern Denmark

In Europe, climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme precipitation events. Consequently, low-lying areas in southern Denmark may experience increased flooding. In this predominantly rural landscape, large areas of wetland were initially reclaimed for agricultural purposes, before being developed into recreational areas for second homes, many of which are now vulnerable to flooding. Local and national policy on flood risk management and climate change adaptation is based on the assumption that effective adaptation actions require citizen engagement. However, local authorities’ efforts to motivate homeowners to engage in collective actions have had mixed results. We adopt a case study approach, and explore how second homeowners’ place meanings shape, and are shaped by, how they experienced a climate-related hazard, and how this, in turn, informs their motivation to engage in collective flood risk management efforts. Specifically, in-depth narrative interviews were conducted with second homeowners who experienced an extreme weather event in 2011, which led to severe flooding. The findings show that place meanings can vary within the same stakeholder group, in this case, second homeowners. However, both second homeowners whose place meanings can be likened to that of a “temporary visitor”, and those whose place meanings are more akin to that of the “permanent resident” are able to mobilise their place meanings to contest engagement in local authorities’ flood risk reduction initiatives.

The impact of extreme precipitation on nutrient runoff

AbstractAgriculture remains a leading source of water pollution in the United States, and climate change may exacerbate this relationship. We quantify increases in nutrient runoff following extreme precipitation events, showing that spikes are higher in regions with crop and livestock production. The spike per head is smaller around large‐scale livestock production, relative to small‐scale, and cover crops mitigate runoff. Legacy nutrients enter the surface water following extreme precipitation, regardless of current activity. We shed light on practices to protect water quality with more frequent extreme precipitation events and demonstrate the importance of including these events in empirical models of water quality.

California margin temperatures modulate regional circulation and extreme summer precipitation in the desert Southwest

In August 2022, Death Valley, the driest place in North America, experienced record flooding from summertime rainfall associated with the North American monsoon (NAM). Given the socioeconomic cost of these type of events, there is a dire need to understand their drivers and future statistics. Existing theory predicts that increases in the intensity of precipitation is a robust response to anthropogenic warming. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperature (SST) variability could further intensify summertime NAM rainfall over the desert southwest. Drawing on this paleoclimatic evidence, we use historical observations and reanalyzes to test the hypothesis that warm SSTs on the southern California margin are linked to more frequent extreme precipitation events in the NAM domain. We find that summers with above-average coastal SSTs are more favorable to moist convection in the northern edge of the NAM domain (southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, and the southern Great Basin). This is because warmer SSTs drive circulation changes that increase moisture flux into the desert southwest, driving more frequent precipitation extremes and increases in seasonal rainfall totals. These results, which are robust across observational products, establish a linkage between marine and terrestrial extremes, since summers with anomalously warm SSTs on the California margin have been linked to seasonal or multi-year NEP marine heatwaves. However, current generation earth system models (ESMs) struggle to reproduce the observed relationship between coastal SSTs and NAM precipitation. Across models, there is a strong negative relationship between the magnitude of an ESM’s warm SST bias on the California margin and its skill at reproducing the correlation with desert southwest rainfall. Given persistent NEP SST biases in ESMs, our results suggest that efforts to improve representation of climatological SSTs are crucial for accurately predicting future changes in hydroclimate extremes in the desert southwest.

Comparison of changes in quasi-biweekly oscillation intensity over the western North Pacific during the developing late-summer of super El Niño events

This study investigated the differences in the changes in the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) intensity over the western North Pacific during the developing late-summer (1982, 1997 and 2015) of three super El Niño events and the possible reasons. The late-summer QBWO intensity was enhanced in these three years and the enhanced QBWO intensity in 2015, which was the strongest during 1980–2017, was remarkably stronger than that in 1982 and 1997. This mainly resulted from the differences in the anomalous late-summer background atmospheric conditions over the northwestern tropical Pacific, which were further modulated by the differences in the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific. While strong warming appeared in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP) in these three years, the warming and its center extended further west in 2015. More importantly, the warming in the central and eastern North Pacific (CENP) in 2015 was the strongest during 1980–2017, whereas there was cooling in 1982 and moderate warming in 1997. In 2015, the strong and westward-extended warming in the CEEP and the strongest warming in the CENP led to the strongest increased lower-level moisture and anomalous easterly vertical shear over the northwestern tropical Pacific during 1980–2017, favoring the strongest QBWO intensity. Numerical experiments confirmed the role of warming in the CENP in 2015. Besides, the frequency of extreme precipitation events over southern China during the late-summer of 2015 was the maximum of 1980–2017 and was closely related to the enhanced QBWO intensity over the western North Pacific.

Rainwater extracting characteristics and its potential impact on DBPs generation: A case study

Frequent extreme precipitation events due to global warming can lead to large amounts of pollutants entering source water bodies via surface runoff and wet deposition, thus posing a threat to water supply security. In order to better understand the source characteristics and leaching mechanisms of rainwater dissolved organic matter (DOM), as well as its disinfection by-products formation potential (DBPsFP) during disinfection processes, rainwater samples were collected and extracting experiments were conducted. Three components were identified in rainwater through Parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis, which were microbial humic-like component C1 (63.1 %), protein (tryptophan-like) component C2 (28.9 %), marine or terrestrial humic-like component C3 (8.1 %). The average molecular weight of rainwater fractions was ordered: hydrophobic neutral (HON) < hydrophobic bases (HOB) < hydrophobic acidic (HOA) < hydrophilic (HIS). The HOA and HON fractions of rainwater were the dominant precursors of trihalomethanes (THMs), while the rainwater HON fraction and hydrophilic fraction were the main precursor of haloacetic acids (HAAs) and trihloroacetonitrile (TCAN), respectively. Subsoil extracts had a higher concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) than topsoil extracts. Partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) demonstrated that the extraction temperature was the dominant factor affecting the abundance of DOM in the topsoil extracts (R2 = 0.28), while the extraction time accounted more for the abundance of fluorescence substance and physicochemical indices in the subsoil extracts (R2 = 0.23 and 0.32, respectively). These results provide key information for controlling the impacts of global warming, in particular the risk of water sources being heavily contaminated by request rainfalls.

How does Mei-yu precipitation respond to climate change?

Mei-yu is an important weather phenomenon in the middle-lower Yangtze River valley (YRV) region. This study investigates the changes in the characteristics of Mei-yu under global warming and the potential reasons based on observation and reanalysis data during 1961-2022. Notable increasing long-term trends are detected in the number of days without rainfall (NDWOR), the intensity of rainfall events, and the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the YRV region during the Mei-yu period (15 June-10 July) over past decades. The increasing trend in NDWOR is attributed to decreased relative humidity over land surface and a longer time for the air to be replenished with moisture after rainfall events in a warming climate. The increasing trends in the intensity of rainfall events and frequency/intensity of EPEs are attributed to the strengthened transient water vapor convergence and convection in the atmosphere under global warming. Furthermore, the response of Mei-yu to 2°C of global warming with respect to the pre-industrial climate is analysed using CMIP6 models. The results suggest that the NDWOR, intensity of rainfall events and frequency of EPEs will increase in the YRV region during the Mei-yu period under the 2°C warming scenario, which implies a more challenging climate risk management in the future. Overall, the intensity of rainfall events during the Mei-yu period has the most significant response to climate change in observations and projections. The model results have a relatively large uncertainty.

Assessing spatiotemporal trends of total and extreme precipitation in a subtropical highland region: A climateperspective.

This study used a dataset of 30 years (1990-2020) of daily observations from 24 meteorological stations in the northern highlands of Pakistan to assess trends in extreme precipitation indices. The RClimDex model was used to analyze the indices, and the Modified Mann-Kendal test and the Theil-Sen slope estimator were applied to determine trends and slopes, respectively. The results showed a significant decrease in total annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) with varying rates of negative trend from -4.44 mm/year to -19.63 mm/year. The total winter and monsoon precipitation amounts were also decreased during the past three decades. The intensity-based precipitation indices (RX1Day, RX5Day, R95p, R99p, and SDII) showed a significant decrease in extreme intensity events over time, while the count of consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) indicated a significant decrease in duration at multiple stations. The annual counts of days with precipitation more than or equal to 10 mm (R10), 20 mm (R20), and 25 mm (R25) exhibited a significant decrease in frequency of extreme precipitation events, with the decrease more pronounced in the northern parts of the study domain. The findings of this study indicate a significant decline in the intensity, frequency, and extent of precipitation extremes across the northern highlands of Pakistan over the past 30 years.

Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological Drought under Future Climate Change in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Basin Based on the Copula Function

Against the background of global warming and frequent extreme precipitation events, the changes in drought characteristics in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (YRMB) have been particularly pronounced in recent years. Under the new situation, it is necessary to further our understanding of drought risk in the basin and its response mechanisms to climate change. In this study, YRMB was utilized as the research area. Based on the precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data under four emission scenarios (historical and future), five timescales (SPEI-1, SPEI-3, SPEI-6, SPEI-9, and SPEI-12) of SPEI drought indices were estimated in this study. Drought events were identified using the run-length theory, and the spatial distribution values of drought frequency, duration, intensity, and severity were also examined. Based on the preferred copula function, the two-dimensional joint distribution of drought variables was established, and the two-dimensional return period of drought indices in the historical (1901–2014) and future (2022–2100 under SSP245 and SSP585 emission scenarios) periods were calculated. The results show that the SPEI index in the middle reaches of the YRMB is increasing in the future period and the basin tends to be more humid. Under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the frequency of long drought durations, high drought intensities, or severe drought events in the basin may be higher. The univariate return period is always higher than the joint return period, but lower than the co-occurrence return period, and both types of return periods can be used to assess range estimations in the future. The research results can provide support for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of drought in the YRMB and improving the accuracy of drought decision making.

Stereoscopic Monitoring Methods for Flood Disasters Based on ICESat-2 and Sentinel-2 Data

Climate change has led to an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events, resulting in increased damage from rainstorms and floods. Rapid and efficient flood forecasting is crucial. However, traditional hydrological simulation methods that rely on site distribution are limited by the limited availability of data and cannot provide fast and accurate flood monitoring information. Therefore, this study took the flood event in Huoqiu County in 2020 as an example and proposes a three-dimensional flood monitoring method based on active and passive satellites, which provides effective information support for disaster prevention and mitigation. The experimental results indicated the following: (1) the flood-inundated area was 704.1 km2, with the Jiangtang Lake section of the Huaihe River and the southern part of Chengdong Lake being the largest affected areas; (2) water levels in the study area ranged from 15.36 m to 17.11 m, which is 4–6 m higher than the original water level. The highest flood water level areas were the Jiangtang Lake section and the flat area in the south of Chengdong Lake, with Chengdong Lake and the north of Chengxi Lake having the greatest water level increase; (3) the flood water depth was primarily between 4 m and 7 m, with a total flood storage capacity of 2833.47 million m3, with Jiangtang Lake having the largest flood storage capacity; and (4) the rainstorm and flood disaster caused a direct economic loss of approximately CNY 7.5 billion and affected a population of approximately 91 thousand people. Three-dimensional monitoring of floods comprehensively reflects the inundation status of floods and can provide valuable information for flood prediction and management.

Precipitation-type discrimination and changes in related climate indices in the upper Heihe River Basin during 1960–2021

Introduction: Precipitation in the upstream region of the Heihe River basin (UHRB) in the northeastern of the Tibetan Plateau, which is the main water source of the basin, has undergone drastic changes in extreme climate events in recent decades. In addition to the amount of precipitation, the type of precipitation has a substantial impact on hydrological processes.Methods: In this study, we compared the results from three methods aimed at improving precipitation type estimation based on daily precipitation type records for 24 discontinuous years. Based on the precipitation type distinction, we examined the spatial and temporal changes in the total precipitation, rainfall, snowfall and air temperature at the six stations as well as the spatial average of the UHRB during the past 62 years. We also analyzed changes in the quantity, duration magnitude, and frequency of extreme precipitation using the RClimDex model and statistical analysis.Results: The probability of detection value of the T3.6_4.5 method was 1.9%, indicating the estimation was closest to actual records. The analyses based on precipitation type diving showed that rainfall accounts for an average of 81.9% of the total precipitation received in a year. In the context of large scale climate warming, temperatures at all six stations increased significantly, but precipitation changes were only apparent at about half of the stations which were located in regions of higher elevation and influenced by both ENSO and the East Asian monsoon. Analysis of the spatial averages in the UHRB revealed that the annual drought events (CDD) were significantly alleviated, and that the growing season length (GSL) was significantly extended. The annual total precipitation, rainfall, and extreme precipitation indices (P99P, P95P, R95P, and SDII) increased in magnitude, and the frequency of extreme precipitation events (P10mm) also significantly increased.Discussion: The findings of this study indicate that under the background of climate warming, the changes of precipitation patterns in the UHRB which may have resulted in bringing better vegetation growth, but also the increasingly frequent extreme rainfall events may pose challenges to growing extreme rainfall events to agriculture and other human activities in local and downstream areas.

Spatial–temporal variation of extreme precipitation in the Yellow–Huai–Hai–Yangtze Basin of China

Climate warming leads to frequent extreme precipitation events, which is a prominent manifestation of the variation of the global water cycle. In this study, data from 1842 meteorological stations in the Huang–Huai–Hai–Yangtze River Basin and 7 climate models of CMIP6 were used to obtain the historical and future precipitation data using the Anusplin interpolation, BMA method, and a non-stationary deviation correction technique. The temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation in the four basins were analysed from 1960 to 2100. The correlation between extreme precipitation indices and their relationship with geographical factors was also analysed. The result of the study indicates that: (1) in the historical period, CDD and R99pTOT showed an upward trend, with growth rates of 14.14% and 4.78%, respectively. PRCPTOT showed a downward trend, with a decreasing rate of 9.72%. Other indices showed minimal change. (2) Based on SSP1-2.6, the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme precipitation changed by approximately 5% at SSP3-7.0 and 10% at SSP5-8.5. The sensitivity to climate change was found to be highest in spring and autumn. The drought risk decreased, while the flood risk increased in spring. The drought risk increased in autumn and winter, and the flood risk increased in the alpine climate area of the plateau in summer. (3) Extreme precipitation index is significantly correlated with PRCPTOT in the future period. Different atmospheric circulation factors significantly affected different extreme precipitation indices of FMB. (4) CDD, CWD, R95pD, R99pD, and PRCPTOT are affected by latitude. On the other hand, RX1day and RX5day are affected by longitude. The extreme precipitation index is significantly correlated with geographical factors, and areas above 3000 m above sea level are more sensitive to climate change.