Freight Transport Demand Models Research Articles

Building latent segments of goods to improve shipment size modelling: Confirmatory evidence from France

Freight transport demand models are generally based on administrative commodity type segmentation which are usually not tailored to behavioral freight transport demand modelling. Recent literature has explored new approaches to segment freight transport demand, notably based on latent class analysis, with promising results. In particular, empirical evidence from road freight transport modelling in Germany hints at the importance of conditioning and handling constraints as a sound basis for segmentation. However, this literature is currently sparse and based on small samples. Before it can be accepted that conditioning should be integrated in the state-of-the-art doctrine of freight data collection and model specification, more evidence is required. The objective of this article is to contribute to the issue. Using detailed data on shipments transported in France, a model of choice of shipment size with latent classes is estimated. The choice of shipment size is modelled as a process of total logistic cost minimization. Latent class analysis leverages the wide range of variables available in the dataset, to provide five categories of shipments which are both contrasted, internally homogenous, and directly usable to update freight collection protocols. The groups are: "‘standard temperature-controlled food products"’, "‘special transports"’, "‘bulk cargo"’, "‘miscellaneous standard cargo in bags"’, "‘palletised standard cargo"’. This segmentation is highly consistent with the empirical evidence from Germany and also leads to better estimates of shipment size choices than administrative segmentation. As a conclusion, the finding that conditioning and handling information is essential to understanding and modelling freight transport can be regarded as more robust.

Transport chain choice modelling in freight transport demand models

Modelling (intermodal) transport chains is of major relevance in order to support public sector decision-making regarding transport planning and policy measures assessment. However, the systematic and comprehensive analysis of freight transport models shows that only few existing models integrate transport chain choice in their modelling framework. These models, furthermore, differ in consideration of relevant aspects – such as actors, processes, transport market interactions or shipment and system related characteristics. The analysis reveals that there are several gaps in integrating transport chains in modelling in today’s modelling approaches and that there is no model that integrates all relevant aspects of transport chain choice properly. Future research and model development should therefore focus on closing the revealed gaps.

Consideration of transport logistics hubs in freight transport demand models

The increasing importance of logistics and its effects on transportation processes have been considered in freight transport demand modelling by new model developments incorporating several logistics aspects. However, transport logistics hubs – hubs without storage function that are primarily used for transhipment – seem to be not considered adequately in most freight models although they are crucial for freight transport. Currently it is not apparent which models do consider transport logistics hubs and how they do. The aim of this article is, therefore, to review how transport logistics hubs are considered in freight transport demand models and to discuss remaining gaps and challenges. Based on an extensive literature review a broad and internationally oriented analysis of transport models has been conducted. More than 100 models were examined regarding their consideration of logistics in general and transport logistics hubs in particular. The article points out the major importance of transport logistics hubs within freight transport and, thus, underpins the fact that they should also be considered sufficiently in freight demand models. It reveals that there are numerous models in application worldwide and that most of these models do not consider logistics or hubs. Only few models integrate logistics hubs, in general, and transport logistics hubs in particular. Furthermore, the consideration of transport logistics hubs within these models differs quantitatively (number and types of hubs) but also qualitatively (detail of hub integration) – also depending on model properties (e.g., scale of analysis, resolution or level of aggregation). Within freight transport processes, transport logistics hubs gained growing empirical significance in the recent past. This implies a major relevance to consider them in demand modelling, too. However, the article reveals that the integration of transport logistics hubs lags behind their empirical significance and that there are certain restrictions which hamper an adequate integration. The potential of many models is limited by reason of data availability. The lack of detailed data remains a major challenge that is, frankly, not new to the freight modelling community. Closing this data gap will help to consider transport hubs adequately and, thus, increase accuracy of models which would enable policy decision-makers to come to more effective decisions.

Opportunities of sectoral freight transport demand modelling

This paper discusses the opportunities of sectoral freight transport demand models. The work is based on literature and insights from interdisciplinary research in the field of production, logistics and transport. First, current and future factors influencing freight transport are discussed. Next, a brief summary of the traditional transport modelling approach and recent extensions and adaptations of freight transport models is given. As interdisciplinary research has shown, the impact of the identified factors on the development of freight transport is strongly dependent on the sector under investigation. As a consequence, this paper proposes the application of a sectoral modelling approach. The automotive and food sectors in Germany are used as examples to further examine the opportunities of sectoral freight transport demand models.

The imperative for commodity-based intermodal freight transport demand modelling: a South African case study

Container forecasting typically focuses on its intermodal nature, container sizes and port container terminals. This leads to a commodity-blind approach to container forecasting, where the twenty-foot-equivalent is the forecasting output. The standardized unit is also increasing into many non-standard forms, indicated by the three main container market segments. This research deconstructs these segments and provides methodological and actual commodity-based container forecasting results for South Africa where intermodal solutions are still in its infancy and investments need to be made based on accurate forecasting

Freight Transport Demand Models for Applications in Urban Areas

Nowadays vehicles committed to the distribution of goods in urban areas are a significant load on transport infrastructure in terms of congestion, accidents, noise and air pollution. We can no longer think about intervening through the construction of infrastructure: sooner or later the new infrastructure will be congested, and externalities will increase with traffic growth. It should, however, point to a careful examination of the structural factors of mobility, ie the understanding and reading of demand, rather than focusing exclusively on the offer. Analysis of mobility demand, and therefore trends and characteristics of the entities that actually move and produce mobility, is essential to deal with the best management of a transport system and, at the same time, of a territory. The paper provides a review of freight transport demand models for applications in urban areas. A methodology for evaluating freight transport in medium-sized cities is proposed in order to enable the determination of the quantity of goods handled, distinguished by type, and the number of vehicles used for this purpose. In this paper the focus is on the fruit and vegetable sector and a survey method for an urban area of medium size is illustrated. The data collected made it possible to calibrate models to estimate the demand for freight transport in urban areas.

Study on Mathematical Model of Freight Transportation Logistic Control

Freight transportation activities in the present circumstances are closely related to a larger context of logistics decision-making, but logistic requirement is not relevant to all types of goods. Most existing freight transport demand models used for mode and route selection still focus only on the direct factors. This paper discusses the taxonomy of logistic and transport models, and the factors can be incorporated into freight transport demand models in order to improve the forecasting capability of the model.

Incorporating Logistics in Freight Transport Demand Models: State-of-the-Art and Research Opportunities

Freight transport demand is a demand derived from all the activities needed to move goods between locations of production to locations of consumption, including trade, logistics and transportation. A good representation of logistics in freight transport demand models allows us to predict the effects of changes in logistics systems on future transport flows. As such it provides better estimations of the costs of interaction and allows to predict changes in spatial patterns of freight transport flows more accurately. In recent years, the attention for freight modelling has been growing and new research work has appeared aimed at incorporating logistics in freight models. In this paper we review the state of the art in the representation of logistics considerations in freight transport demand models. Our focus is on the service and cost drivers of changes in logistics networks and how these affect freight transport. Our review proceeds along a conceptual framework for modelling that goes beyond the conventional 4-step modelling approach. We identify promising areas for freight modelling that have an integrative function within this framework, such as spatial computable general equilibrium models, supply chain choice models and hypernetwork models.

Critical Review of freight Transport Demand Models

The importance of freight transport for today's society neednot be underlined. Yet, rather few attempts have been made inorder to model freight transport demand in a quite 'original'and appropriate way, especially if the literature on freight transportis compared with lhe huge amount of works done on passengertransport.The aim of lhe paper is twofold: firs/, a seleclive survey isconducted on the issue of freighttransporl demand modelling,also from an 'evolutionary' standpoint; second, such a body ofliterature is arranged in order to provide an original classificationof available models.