Free Democratic Party Research Articles

EVOLUTION AND PROSPECTS OF THE «ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY»

In recent years, the populist Alternative for Germany (AfG) party, which systematically opposes the ruling mainstream parties, has become active on the German political scene. In contrast to the approach of the mainstream parties, the AfG’s views on governance and engagement with the European Union now pose a threat to the coalition of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Alliance 90 / The Greens because of the increasing popularity of right-wing populists among the German electorate. In autumn 2025, Germany will hold federal elections to the Bundestag, which will determine the political course of the country for the next 5 years. The purpose of this article is to assess the prospects of the Alternative for Germany party in the Bundestag elections in 2025.A significant part of the article is devoted to reviewing the ideological evolution of the party, which has gone from a minor moderate party to the leading opposition force in the country. This is essential in order to understand the implications of the current rise in social tensions and scandals around Alternative and how this may affect its future political sustainability. Authors provide a forecast of the party’s chances of success in the parliamentary elections and assess the risks that the AfG may face during the electoral struggle. The conclusion is made that the chances of the Alternative for Germany party to enter the government in 2025 will depend on its capacity to timely eliminate the accumulated internal contradictions, such as the excessive radicalisation of the party and the lack of a unified ideological component among its leaders.

Ensuring Military-Political Security in USSR and FRG Dialogue (1987–1989)

This article is dedicated to the examination of the diplomatic efforts undertaken by the USSR and the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) to ensure military-political security during the period from 1987 to 1989. It explores the factors that contributed to changes in security policy. The analysis focuses on several under-researched aspects, including the strengthening of constructive forces within the federal government in 1987; the convergence of positions between the USSR and the FRG regarding disarmament and arms control; and the process of solidifying a positive trend in Soviet-West German political dialogue. Special attention is given to the role of the Free Democratic Party of Germany (FDP) in reorienting the governing coalition of the FRG from a policy of confrontation towards seeking compromises with the USSR in the realm of security. The evolution of Bonn’s official stance on the elimination of intermediate- and shorter-range missiles is also examined. It is demonstrated that, during 1988–1989, the course of the federal government became less dependent on the line of its key ally, the United States, thereby allowing for a consideration of the national interests of the FRG in addressing the issue of “nuclear rearmament”. The relevance of this study lies in its exploration of mechanisms through which the degradation of dialogue between the Russian Federation and Western collective countries in the sphere of security may be halted in contemporary times.

Ready, Steady, No? The Contested Legitimacy of Weapon Deliveries to Ukraine in German Foreign Policy Discourse

AbstractHow were arms deliveries to Ukraine (de)legitimized in the German Bundestag? This paper is based on a discourse analysis of parliamentary debates held between December 2021 and January 2023 on the question of military support for Ukraine. It shows how the legitimization of arms deliveries and various identity narratives of German foreign policy are mutually constitutive but also reconfigured. Members of Alliance 90/The Greens, the Free Democratic Party, and the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union legitimized arms deliveries by referring to Germany’s identity as a European “shaping power” from which a “responsibility” to provide military support was derived. Ukraine had become part of the Western European community; therefore, arms deliveries were necessary to defend the European “we” against the Russian aggression. Criticism of arms deliveries was voiced by The Left, who emphasized Germany’s pacifist identity, which had been established as a lesson from National Socialism and should not be abandoned. The Alternative for Germany party also rejected any military support, pointing to the negative consequences for economic relations with Russia and openly questioning the legitimacy of Ukrainian statehood, as Putin derives geopolitical claims over Ukraine that “must be respected.” The most radical change was observed within the Social Democratic Party parliamentary group. Just a few weeks after his appearance in the Bundestag, Scholz and his parliamentary group mobilized a vocabulary that was less associated with “Zeitenwende” and more with Germany’s traditional identity as a “civilian power” in order to legitimize a “balanced” approach so that “Russia does not win” but Germany is not dragged into the war either.

«THERMAL COUP» OF VICE-CHANCELLOR R. HABECK: CONSEQUENCES FOR GERMANY’s ECONOMICS AND POLITICS

In the face of new challenges for the energy transition, since spring 2022, the German Cabinet of Ministers has been paying special attention to the energy saving of buildings, which are one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection has consistently increased the mandatory use of renewable energy sources for heating and electricity consumption. Since the beginning of 2023, at the initiative of its head, at the same time acting vice-chancellor, R. Habeck, a mechanism for the preferential use of heat pumps as a strategic basis for the so-called thermal transition has been discussed at the government level. The peculiarity was the absence of a traditional organized public discussion in such cases with the involvement of specialized interest groups. Moreover, facts of internal lobbying at the level of one of the state secretaries of the ministry were revealed. In April, the government coalition proposed a draft to make a number of qualitative changes to the Law on the Energy of Buildings. It provoked sharp criticism and rejection from the Free Democratic Party, the expert and business community, as well as representatives of federal subjects. Against this background, German and foreign manufacturers of heat pumps have stepped up efforts to conquer new market niches. The article examines the essence of the amendments proposed by the coalition, the prospects for their adoption, the content of criticism of the bill by specialized associations and unions, the possible consequences of the future law for economic and economic political processes in Germany.

German-Israeli Political Relations under the Chancellor's Government Willy Brandt (1969-1974 AD)

Objectives: This study examines the evolution of German-Israeli political relations under Chancellor Willy Brandt's government (1969-1974 AD). The government, led by the Social Democratic Party (SPD), was formed after the parliamentary elections on 9/28/1969 AD and gained confidence through an alliance with the Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by Walter Scheel.
 Methods: The study employed an analytical historical approach, drawing from unpublished German documents in the archives of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other contemporary sources to shed light on an under-researched subject. It analyzes Germany's progression from establishing normal relations in 1969 AD to further developments by 1974 AD.
 Results: The study reveals that political relations with Israel evolved in line with Germany's policy of openness to the socialist camp. It also examines how the German government dealt with the "Munich Process" during the Olympic Games and its impact on Israel-Germany relations. Additionally, the study explores the factors influencing Germany's stance during the October 1973 war, particularly in light of the Arab oil initiative led by King Faisal Al Saud in foreign policy.
 Conclusions: During Chancellor Willy Brandt's government, German-Israeli political relations advanced significantly, with Germany expressing support for Israeli political positions. Moreover, the study highlights the reestablishment of German-Arab relations, which had been severed since 1965 AD.

Изменения в политическом ландшафте Германии после начала боевых действий на Украине: вызовы для России

The article deals with the changes in public opinion and balance of political forces in Germany after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. The analyses of sociological polls revealed that German population has been experiencing the break of old patterns and the division on the most important foreign policy issues. Also, the article presents a graph of government rating created by the author. It shows that while the support for ruling coalition declines, opposition’s ranking improves. However, the graph of parties’ ranking demonstrates that the support for governing Social Democratic Party of Germany and the Free Democratic Party, as well as the opposition Left Party dropping, the rating of Christian Democratic Union / Christian Social Union, ‘Alternative for Germany’ and governing Alliance 90 / The Greens improves. Comparison of survey data with party materials revealed the reasons for the strengthening and weakening of various political forces. In the end, the author draws conclusions regarding the impact of changes in the party-political balance on Russian-German relations. The main challenge for our countries is that most German parties are united in condemning Moscow's policies. The more open to dialogue AfD and part of the Left Party have no chance of entering the federal and state governments, and interaction with the right-wing populist ‘Alternative for Germany’ could discredit Russia.

The Change of Motives to Become and to be a Party Member. An Empirical Analysis of the German Party Membership Studies 1998, 2009 and 2017

In this paper, the thesis is put forward that selective outcome incentives for party membership gain relevance over time. Two possible mechanisms are identified as the cause of this increase in importance: a supply-side mechanism based on processes of societal change that took place through generational succession and a demand-side mechanism focusing on shifts in the self-image and organizational structure of political parties. The supply-side mechanism should lead to changes in the motives of potential members, whereas the demand-side mechanism alters the incentives potential and current members are exposed to.The empirical analyses are based on the German Party Membership Studies of 1998, 2009 and 2017. These three studies are nationwide representative surveys of the members of the following six parties: Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Christian Social Union (CSU), Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP), Alliance90/The Greens (Bündnis90/Die Grünen), and The Left (Die Linke). Within the German Party Membership Studies, both the motives for joining the party and the current membership motives are surveyed.Empirically, it is shown that there is indeed an increase in the importance of selective outcome membership motives over the period under study. The mechanisms behind this increase in importance are investigated using multivariate Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models based on the cumulated data of the German Party Membership Studies. These analyses are based on a total of nearly 30,000 cases. The results of the APC analyses are largely consistent with the supply-side explanation of the increased importance of selective outcome motives for party entry and membership. The demand-side explanation is only partially confirmed.

Paradoxes of democratization: social-liberal reformism, education and citizenship in West Germany after 1968

ABSTRACT Historians largely agree that the social-liberal reforms in the Federal Republic of Germany constituted a major contribution to transforming the country into a more participatory democracy around 1970. Responding to the demands of protesting youth, so this narrative goes, the coalition between the Social Democratic Party and the Free Democratic Party engaged in a flurry of reforms all aimed at equalizing access to an active and engaged democratic citizenship. By taking a closer look at how these social-liberal reformers addressed young people through school reforms, this article instead emphasizes the paradoxical legacy of these reforms, which has thus far been neglected in the historiography. This article thus probes the connection among the federal, regional and local initiatives to use schools to engage young people in the democratic process, with a particular focus on the markedly different reforms in the West German state of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) and in West Berlin. Through these reforms, policymakers and experts not only attempted to offer youth more opportunities for active participation, but also to control carefully how they made use of their citizenship. Moreover, these educational reforms exposed the fissures inherent in a class-based and multi-ethnic West German democracy. Although social-liberal reformers intended to equalize access to democratic citizenship, they nonetheless also reified cultural and political hierarchies between the middle and lower classes, as well as between ethnic Germans and immigrant children. Ultimately, these endeavours shaped West German democracy largely through their unintended consequences. While in NRW, these reforms contributed to the rise of a liberal-conservative opposition, in West Berlin, these policies gave rise to a Left-alternative movement that each defined democratic citizenship in their own ways.

May political parties refuse to govern? On integrity, compromise and responsibility

ABSTRACT After the parliamentary elections in Germany in September 2017, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Christian Social Union (CSU), The Greens (Bündnis90/Die Grünen) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) started to negotiate about forming a coalition government. But, surprising to many, the FDP decided to let these coalition talks collapse, and many commentators in Germany found it highly problematic for a political party to refuse to take responsibility in government. Interestingly, the question whether (or: when) democratic parties may legitimately refuse to govern has so far been neglected in political theory and political philosophy. The article develops a general answer by discussing several possible reasons for thinking that it is sometimes wrong to refuse to govern and thereby engages both democratic theory and the recent literature on compromise. The resulting view is that parties have an ‘integrity prerogative’ that allows them to refuse to govern, except when there is no reasonable and stable alternative government coalition available.

Catalysts for Change

In 2021, the small parties continued their electoral ascent in Germany. For the first time they received more votes than did the cdu/csu and the spd. Three finished with a double-digit result, and the combined vote share of the top two small parties exceeded that of the largest vote-getter. After the election, a novel three-party coalition arose at the national level. This resulted in a centrist alternative to grand coalitions and converted the electoral gains of the small parties into increased policymaking influence for the Greens and the fdp. This article considers the impact of the small parties, analyzes their success in 2021, and examines the campaigns, results, and prospects of Alliance 90/The Greens, the Free Democratic Party, the Alternative for Germany, and the Left Party.

Intersectoral care: sector-linking approaches or ashifting of the sector boundary

The coalition agreement between the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), Alliance 90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen), and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) states: "In order to promote the outpatientization of services that have so far been unnecessarily provided as inpatient care, we will swiftly implement sectoral remuneration for suitable services by means of so-called hybrid DRGs" (DRG, diagnosis-related group). More details are not known as yet. At this stage, another reform is surpassing the expectations that must inevitably arise from the coalition agreement, not least and especially for the care of internal medical conditions: The reform of Section 115b of BookV of the German Social Code (SGBV) and, thus, the revision of the catalog of operations that can be performed on an outpatient basis and interventions that can be performed on an inpatient basis. New additions to the catalog include inpatient-replacing treatments, which will likely move internal medicine into the center alongside surgical services. Following publication of the IGES report pursuant to Section 115b (1a) of SGBV and its initial assessments by the organizations involved, it is clear that there may be amixture of the two reform approaches. It is for this reason that the umbrella organization of specialists in Germany (Spitzenverband Fachärzte Deutschlands e.V., SpiFa) already joined the discussion with its own considerations 2years ago. It is essentially irrelevant to patients whether they are treated on an outpatient or an inpatient basis, and they are not interested in whether the physician treating them works in ahospital, apractice, or amedical care center. The main thing is that the physician is qualified, care is provided according to modern evidence-based standards, and there is competent emergency and complication management. This applies to all surgical services and especially to all conservative and interventional services in internal medicine. With these basic considerations in mind, the SpiFa and its associations have discussed aconcept that, in the spirit of the coalition agreement on the establishment of acare concept under the catchword "Hybrid-DRG", stands on its own, avoids sectoral boundaries, but can also be integrated into the considerations on §115b SGBV and necessarily goes beyond the boundaries of the catalog.

At Least Agree on the Important Things: The Impact of Issue Distance, Intracoalition Heterogeneity, and Salience on Voters’ Coalition Preferences

The 2021 German federal election led to the formation of the so-called traffic-light coalition between the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Free Democratic Party, which had never before been agreed upon at the federal level. Over a long period, German parties had competed for government in relatively clear and ideologically homogeneous camps. However, fragmentation of the party system made majorities for two-party alliances more and more unlikely, and party elites needed to reassess new partnerships. Most of these novel coalitions, like the traffic-light coalition, are also cross-cutting dimensions of political competition in Germany. This raises the question of how voters reflect upon these novel government alternatives and make up their minds about which of them they would like to see in office.In this paper, I argue that a nuanced view on issues rather than general ideology offers more precise insights on the origins of voters’ coalition preferences. Furthermore, as salience theory suggests, not every issue is equally important for every part of the citizenry. Therefore, it is expected that the effects of voter–coalition distance as well as intracoalition heterogeneity on specific issues are moderated by individuals’ saliency of the respective issues. These expectations are tested using data from the 2021 preelection cross-section survey of the German Longitudinal Election Study. The results emphasize the relevance of specific issues as well as salience in the formation of voters’ coalition preferences.

Political Party Affinity and Fear of Conventional and Nuclear War in Germany

Aim: to clarify the association between political party affinity and fear of conventional and nuclear war in Germany. Methods: data were used from a nationally representative online survey (in terms of age bracket, sex and state; n = 3091 individuals; mid-March 2022). Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate the association between political party affinity and fear of conventional and nuclear war in Germany, adjusting for several covariates. Results: while, for example, individuals who had an affinity with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Germany reported the highest frequency of severe fear of a conventional war (58.0%), individuals who had an affinity with the Left Party (Die Linken, left-wing) reported a somewhat lower frequency of severe fear (48.2%) and individuals who had an affinity with the Alternative for Germany (AFD, right-wing) reported the lowest frequency (43.7%). Regressions showed that—compared to individuals who had an affinity with the SPD—individuals who had an affinity with the Free Democratic Party (FDP, liberal) and particularly individuals who had an affinity with the Alternative for Germany (AFD) reported a markedly lower fear of war (both fear of a conventional war and fear of a nuclear war). Conclusion: our study showed some interesting associations between political party affinity and fear of war in Germany. This knowledge may assist in characterising individuals at risk for higher levels of fear of war.

Attractiveness and preferences for redistribution

Using unique German survey data, we show that beauty is associated with lower support for redistribution and that attractive individuals are more likely to believe that economic success depends more on individual effort rather than external circumstances. These results are consistent with voting behavior, as we find that beauty correlates with voting for the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which historically advocates a low level of taxation. These associations do not differ by gender and remain also if household income and employment status are controlled for, suggesting that the relationship between attractiveness and political preferences is not fully explained by the beauty premium in the labor market. We test alternative channels that might drive our results, but the correlation between attractiveness and preferences for redistribution always persists. We suggest that our results might be explained by the way in which attractive individuals rationalize the advantages they get thanks to their beauty.

The role of political parties in multi-level environmental governance in the European Union and Germany

The subject of the study is the involvement of political parties in multi-level environmental governance in the European Union, using Germany and its federal states as an example. This article describes the theoretical and practical foundations of multi-level governance. The place of European parties and their national member parties from Germany in the institutional system and decision-making process of environmental policy has been defined. For practical illustration, the climate policy guidelines of Germany’s main national parties (the Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria, the Social Democratic Party of Germany, the Alternative for Germany, the Free Democratic Party of Germany, the Left and the Alliance 90 / The Greens) and their European affiliations (the European People’s Party, the Party of the European Socialists, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, the European Green Party and the Party of European Left) were compared with an emphasis on the new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The unique opportunity for parties to participate in environmental policymaking at all key levels, which is not limited to parliamentary institutions has been highlighted. Appointments to environmental positions at different levels often correlate with membership of the most environmentally oriented parties, although the level of environmental involvement may differ between national parties and their European affiliations. Among other things, this has to do with participation in governing coalitions and dependence on a senior partner in them, as shown by the examples of the Bundestag and the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg. The final decision depends heavily on the unity of the coalition at federal and state level, whereas in the European Parliament there is a great differentiation of opinions, which allows even the most influential European People’s Party to be blocked from voting.

Участие Германии в «Инициативе трех морей»: перспективы для России

The Three Seas Initiative was launched in 2016 by the Polish and Croatian leaders to bridge the gap between Southeast, Central and Eastern Europe, on the one hand, and Western Europe, on the other. This article aims to show how German policy on the Three Seas Initiative has changed and what risks and opportunities it represents for Russia. The official data on the Three Seas Initiative was used to explore the specifics of the concept and the impact of its most promising projects on the Southeast, Central and Eastern European markets. The ana­lysis of materials from German think tanks and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was used to demonstrate the changes in Germany's attitude towards the Initiative. Although the participating countries have not received sufficient funding to fulfil all the ambitious goals of the Three Seas Initiative, some of its most promising projects could diminish Russia’s role in the EU energy market. Since 2018, the Federal Republic of Germany has increased its participation in the Initiative, yet Berlin’s growing focus on the concept should not be perceived critically since German participation could mitigate the anti-Russian sentiment underlying the Three Seas Initiative. Moreover, the ideas voiced by Germany’s Free Democratic Party, namely those concerning a joint hydrogen project with Russia to be run as part of the Three Seas Initiative, deserve special attention.

Die programmatische Evolution der FDP in der Ost- und Deutschlandpolitik in den Jahren 1974-1982 im Lichte der neuen Quellen vom Archiv des Deutschen Liberalismus

The Program Evolution of the FDP in Ostpolitik and Deutschlandpolitik in 1974-1982 in the Light of the New Resources from the Archive of German Liberalism The main objective of the article is to analyse the program activities of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) in the Eastern policy (Ostpolitik) and German policy (Deutschlandpolitik) of the Federal Republic of Germany in the years 1974-1982. It needs to be emphasised that the author has used new archive resources from the archive of German Liberalism in Gummersbach in this work. This enabled him to present a new assessment of the influence of the FDP on the Eastern policy of the Federal Republic of Germany during the period presented.

Beautiful Inequality: Are Beautiful People More Willing To Redistribute?

As winners of the “genetic lottery”, beautiful people have several advantages over their life course: they earn more, find better jobs, and are happier than their peers. We investigate whether good-looking individuals are willing to share their fortune by supporting income redistribution. Using German data, we show that beauty is associated with lower support for redistribution. Furthermore, we show that attractive individuals are more likely to believe that income should be based solely on individual achievements. To check whether the set of questions used to measure taste for redistribution captures the underlying preferences, we then investigate a possible correlation between voting behavior and beauty. We show that beauty correlates with voting for the Free Democratic Party (FDP) thus suggesting that the correlation between beauty and preferences for redistribution is channeled through party affiliation. Our findings resist to a broad set of robustness checks. A plausible mechanism that drives our findings is the self-serving bias, that is to say: people tend to attribute success to their own merit and failure to external factors. Overall, our results suggest that benefiting from random luck, such as winning the “genetic lottery”, reduces taste for redistribution.

НІМЕЦЬКА ПАРЛАМЕНТЬСКА ДЕМОКРАТІЯ ПІСЛЯ ВИБОРІВ 2021 РОКУ

The article examines the impact of the 2021 parliamentary elections on German parliamentary democracy. The pandemic and climate change have affected the mood of German voters. The peculiarities of the activity of German parliamentary parties during the election campaign are analyzed. German voters have demonstrated the ability to make rational political decisions. This made it possible to renew the composition of the Bundestag and preserve the professionalism of the deputies. The «Christian Democrats» believed that Germany should become a climate-neutral industrial state. Following the election, the «Christian Democrats» showed the worst result. The Bavarian «Christian Social Union» maintained its political position. The winners of the election, the «Social Democrats», conducted an ideal election campaign. The «Green Party» ran an optimistic election campaign. Opponents have accused the Greens of failing to combine climate protection with economic growth. The opposition Left Party promoted climate-friendly socialism. In the new Bundestag, the left is represented by a victory in two majority districts. The «Alternative for Germany» party ran a passive election campaign. It is the only party to support Germany’s withdrawal from the European Union. All parliamentary parties campaigned against «Alternatives for Germany». The «Free Democratic Party» conducted an active and optimistic election campaign. Following the election, the «Social Democrats», the «Green Party» and the «Free Democrats» formed a «social-liberal green coalition», Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised to ensure the heredity of the development of a social market economy. The innovation concerned the intentions of the «Green Party» to create a climate-neutral German economy. The article notes that the new ruling German coalition opens up positive opportunities for the development of Ukrainian-German relations. Maintaining the political balance in Germany maintains stability in the European Union.

Die Programmentwicklung und die Strategie der FDP in der Ostpolitik in den Jahren 1969-1974 im Lichte der neuen Quellen des Archivs des Deutschen Liberalismus

The Program Evolution and the Strategy of the FDP in Ostpolitik in 1969- 1974 in the Light of New Resources of the Archive of German Liberalism
 The main objective of the article is to analyze the program activities and the strategy of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) in the Eastern policy (Ostpolitik) of the Federal Republic of Germany in the years 1969-1974. The author has used in this work new resources from the archive of German Liberalism in Gummersbach, which is of great importance. This enabled him to present a new assessment of the influence of the FDP on the Eastern policy of the Federal Republic of Germany during the period presented.