Franc Exchange Rate Research Articles

Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Models for Eastern African Countries

This paper presents a comprehensive study comparing three distinct models including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (<i>ARIMA</i>), Geometric Brownian Motion (<i>GBM</i>), and Artificial Neural Networks (<i>ANN</i>) for predicting Rwandan franc exchange rates in Eastern Africa countries. Utilizing historical exchange rate data from the National Bank of Rwanda (<i>BNR</i>), predictive models are constructed for each method. The analysis reveals that both the <i>ANN</i> and <i>ARIMA</i> outperform <i>GBM</i> in accurately approximating Rwandan franc exchange rates. These findings highlight the superior forecasting capabilities of <i>ARIMA</i> and <i>ANN</i> for Eastern African exchange rates, while providing insights into the performance of <i>GBM</i> in comparison.

Foreign Exchange Rates Dynamics and Stock Market Performance in an Emerging Economy: Evidence from Nigeria

This study focused on the connection between foreign exchange rates dynamics and stock market performance in Nigeria (1995 to 2021). The paper set out to examine the effects of foreign exchange rates movements on the stock market performance in Nigeria. The data for the study were obtained solely from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. The Naira-U.S Dollar, Naira-British Pounds, Naira-Euro, and Naira-Swiss Franc exchange rates were proxies for the foreign exchange rate dynamics, while stock market performance was represented by stock market capitalization. The vector error correction mechanism (VECM) and the Pairwise Granger Causality tests were employed to analyze the secondary data. Results revealed the existence of long run relationship between foreign exchange rate dynamics and stock market performances in Nigeria though with an insignificant impact. In addition, a uni-directional causality was observed running from market capitalization to naira US-dollar exchange rate among others. It was therefore concluded that foreign exchange rates dynamics have an insignificant impact on stock market performances in Nigeria. Thus, there is need to align Nigeria’s economic stabilization policies in order to effectively achieve currency stability (of the naira). Policies such as outright ban on importation of items that can be produced locally should be pursued vigorously. This will no doubt boost aggregate domestic demand for such products and also go a long way in enhancing the value of the naira and by extension stock market outlook in Nigeria.

Modelling Foreign Exchange Interventions under Rayleigh Process: Applications to Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Dynamics.

This paper models the foreign exchange intervention policy following the Rayleigh process derived from the standard flexible-price monetary framework. The exchange rate dynamics associated with the interventions are more sensitive to the change in the economic fundamental when a currency’s money supply is ample and its appreciation expectation cannot be offset by lower interest rates that have fallen to the zero lower bound, suggesting that more intensive interventions are required to counteract currency appreciation pressure and resulting in foreign reserve accumulation. The empirical results using market data during January 2015–February 2020 demonstrate that the model can describe the dynamics of the Swiss franc exchange rate. The accumulation of foreign reserves through interventions is negatively co-integrated with the exchange rate volatility and the value of the mean level of the Swiss franc exchange rate in the dynamics, to some extent indicating a reasonably high degree of effectiveness of the Swiss National Bank’s interventions. The transition between the target-zone and floating-rate regimes in 2015 caused changes in the level of exchange rate volatility but not its dynamical structure, suggesting that transitions between the floating-rate and target-zone regimes do not seem to have material consequence in this regard.

Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model

This paper develops an FX factor model to decompose short-term bilateral exchange rate dynamics into different global factors and local uniqueness. We apply the model to the Swiss franc exchange rates against the US dollar (USDCHF) and the euro (EURCHF) between 2006 and 2018 and decompose daily dynamics into three global factors: risk, US dollar, and euro. The model captures daily dynamics well, explaining approximately 73% of the variation in USDCHF and 37% of the variation in EURCHF, reflecting the importance of global factors for Swiss franc exchanges rates. The risk factor contributes the most to Swiss franc dynamics, especially in times of a worsening risk environment, highlighting the role of the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency. Global factors had been almost completely reflected in USDCHF dynamics before the euro area debt crisis, but once that crisis began, they also became important for EURCHF. In a case study of the introduction of the EURCHF minimum exchange rate we showcase the importance of momentum in daily Swiss franc returns.

Do Risk Disclosures Matter When It Counts? Evidence from the Swiss Franc Shock

ABSTRACTWe examine the relation between disclosure quality and information asymmetry among market participants following an exogenous shock to macroeconomic risk. In 2015, the Swiss National Bank abruptly announced that it would abandon the longstanding minimum euro‐Swiss franc exchange rate. We find evidence suggesting that firms with more transparent disclosures regarding their foreign exchange risk exposure ex ante exhibit significantly lower information asymmetry ex post. The information gap in bid‐ask spreads appears within 30 minutes of the announcement and persists for two weeks, during which new information gradually substitutes for past disclosures. We validate the information dynamics of past risk disclosures with three field surveys: (1) Sell‐side analysts emphasize the importance of existing (risk) disclosures in evaluating the translational and transactional effects of the currency shock. (2) Lending banks’ credit officers rely on past disclosures as the primary information source available for smaller (unlisted) firms in the immediate aftermath of the shock. (3) Investor‐relations managers use existing financial filings as a key resource when communicating with external stakeholders. The results suggest that historical disclosures help investors attenuate information asymmetry in light of unexpected news.

The discontinuation of the EUR/CHF minimum exchange rate: information from option-implied break probabilities

Abstract We derive risk-neutral probability densities for future euro/Swiss franc exchange rates as implied by option prices. We find that the credibility of the Swiss franc floor decreased somewhat as the spot exchange rate approached the lower bound of 1.20 CHF per euro. We also compare the forecasting performance of a random walk benchmark model with an error-correction model (ECM) augmented with option-implied break probabilities of breaching the currency floor. We find some evidence that the augmented ECM has an informational advantage over the random walk when using one-month break probabilities. But we find that one-month option-implied densities cannot predict the entire range of exchange rate realizations.

Foreign Exchange Dynamics and Reserve Accumulation under Capital Inflows

When a currency’s appreciation expectation cannot be offset by lower interest rates which have fallen to the zero lower bound, the monetary authority needs to intervene to prevent currency appreciation due to capital inflows and resulting in foreign reserve accumulation. Based on a standard flexible-price monetary framework, this paper extends a target-zone model in which the intervention policy is incorporated by specifying the asymmetric mean-reverting fundamental dynamics with the smooth-pasting condition at a moving boundary. The solution of the model shows that the exchange rate dynamics is more sensitive to the change in the fundamental when the domestic interest rate is constrained at zero, suggesting more intensive interventions are required to counteract currency appreciation pressure. The empirical results using market data during January 2015 – February 2020 demonstrate that the model can describe the dynamics of the Swiss franc exchange rate following the mean-reverting square-root process. The accumulation of foreign reserves through interventions is negatively co-integrated with the exchange rate volatility and the value of the mean level of the Swiss franc exchange rate in the dynamics, to some extent indicating a reasonably high degree of effectiveness of the Swiss National Bank’s interventions.

Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency

AbstractSwiss franc exchange rates exhibit safe‐haven characteristics, which suggest a close link between the forward premium puzzle and profitability of the carry trade. Our analysis of Swiss franc exchange rates shows that the two phenomena are distinct from each other, thus corroborating U.S. dollar evidence. Persistent exposures to two different global shocks drive the two phenomena in Swiss franc exchange rates. Moreover, we find significant links between expected average Swiss franc exchange rate changes and macroeconomic conditions during the period of the minimum Swiss franc exchange rate against the euro, but not during the rest of the sample period.

Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes

Based on ultrahigh-frequency returns, this paper comprehensively revisits the weak-form efficiency of the euro to Swiss franc (EUR/CHF) exchange rate market from 2002 to 2017, including the efficiency of several long periods and intraday efficiency. To this end, we employ Hurst index as the indicator of the degree of efficiency. The Jarque–Bera test demonstrates that the high-frequency logarithm return of EUR/CHF does not accord with a normal distribution. Further, a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is performed to validate the statistical significance of Hurst indices of the EUR/CHF exchange rate returns. The results indicate that the EUR/CHF exchange rate market possesses an extremely mild anti-persistence when the full sample is investigated. Similarly, a weak anti-persistence is also found in five fixed sub-samples which can been roughly split into “free float” periods and “intervention” periods owing to the SNB’s interventions. When it comes to the intraday efficiency tests on EUR/CHF exchange rate market, we find the majority of intraday Hurst indices follow a downward departure from 0.5, which roughly provides an evidence for intraday market inefficiency. Overall, at the level of long period returns, the Hurst values show an approach to 0.5, whereas most Hurst indices of intraday returns exhibit a relatively large deviation from 0.5. Besides, the intraday Hurst indices present that the announcement of lower bound can be approximatively regarded as a turning point of the market efficiency, which potentially indicates that the SNB’s interventions might reduce the efficiency of the studied market.

Consumers´ Cross-Border Shopping Behaviour in the City of Konstanz

A significant and sudden change in the Swiss franc exchange rate has led to a sharp rise in cross-border shopping in German border towns. For German businesses, the appearance of massive streams of visitors from their neighbouring country is a gratifying and highly lucrative development. A survey of passers-by in the Konstanz marketplace was conducted to shed more light on cross-border consumer behaviour. To investigate the proportion of Swiss consumers, their purchasing power, purchasing preferences and motives of shoppers, five hypotheses were derived, and data were collected, analysed and evaluated. Overall, there are some remarkable differences between the behaviour of Swiss and German visitors to the Konstanz marketplace. Consumers from Switzerland generally visit the marketplace less often but bring a significantly higher budget with them. They are also generally more satisfied with the Konstanz marketplace. Surprisingly, despite the price levels, VAT refunds play a subordinate role for Swiss customers.

Verbal interventions and exchange rate policies: The case of Swiss franc cap

We ask whether verbal interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) affected market beliefs in the desired direction during the period from 2011 to 2015, when the SNB imposed a cap on the Swiss franc at 1.20 against the euro. A verbal intervention was a speech by a member of the SNB Governing Board containing the wording “utmost determination” and/or “unlimited quantities”. We show that these verbal interventions lowered uncertainty regarding the future value of euro/Swiss franc exchange rate and steered market beliefs toward franc depreciation, therefore reinforcing the credibility of the Swiss franc cap.

Swatch Group and Francogeddon

This case illustrates how exchange rate shocks affect international businesses. The focus is on one recent stark example: the effect on Swatch Group of the Swiss National Bank's January 2015 decision to end its policy of putting a ceiling on the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate. It is useful for an introductory class that defines different exchange rate concepts, illustrates why managers should care about exchange rates, and motivates/previews the study of the macroeconomics of exchange rates, capital flows, and monetary policy. This case is appropriate for use in a first-year MBA course that deals with international economics or finance, though it is written to be standalone and thus could also be employed in an advanced undergraduate or master's level course on international macroeconomics or finance. Excerpt UVA-GEM-0167 Oct. 29, 2018 Swatch Group and Francogeddon “The Swiss National Bank has decided to discontinue the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro with immediate effect and to cease foreign currency purchases associated with enforcing it.” Thomas Jordan, Chairman, Swiss National Bank With that one sentence uttered on a cold Zurich day in early 2015, Thomas Jordan ended the Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy to hold the Swiss franc (CHF) down against the euro (EUR). The policy, which had been in place since September 2011, had SNB purchasing foreign currency in exchange for the Swiss franc in order to maintain a floor of CHF1.2 per euro (or, equivalently, a ceiling of EUR0.83 per franc). Within a week of removing this policy, the franc appreciated over 20% and the stock price of Swatch Group, a Swiss watch manufacturer and exporter, fell by over 20% (Figure 1). Swatch CEO Nick Hayek Jr. proclaimed, “Words fail me! Jordan is not only the name of the SNB president, but also of a river and today's SNB action is a tsunami; for the export industry and for tourism, and finally for the entire country.” . . .

The Swiss franc safety premium

This paper applies a recent method proposed by Maggiori (The U.S. Dollar Safety Premium, 2013) to estimate the Swiss franc safety premium. The results show that the three-step instrumental variable approach as used by Maggiori does not work for the Swiss franc exchange rates. The price of risk estimates take unrealistic, negative values. One possible explanation is that the approach as it is used by Maggiori suffers from a measurement error for the expected exchange rate which represents a potential source of imprecision. By using the prediction of an augmented Fama regression to measure the expected exchange rate change, this measurement error can be avoided and the safety premium estimates become more realistic and closer to those obtained with a maximum likelihood-estimated GARCH approach. Overall, however, the GARCH approach still seems to be preferable to the instrumental variable approach.

Utjecaj krize na promjene osobne potrošnje pojedinaca: sjećanje na krizu i odluke o potrošnji budućeg dohotka

Utjecaj krize na promjenu i obilježja osobne potrošnje u Republici Hrvatskoj predmet je brojnih istraživanja. Nastupanje krize sagledava se kao nepredviđen šok za potrošača i istražuje se u kojoj mjeri taj šok utječe na odluke vezane uz osobnu potrošnju i trošenje budućeg dohotka. No ostaje pitanje koliko dugo traje sjećanje na krizu i koliko vremena nakon završetka ili smanjenja intenziteta djelovanja krize, kriza i dalje utječe na odluke o potrošnji pojedinaca. U ovome radu anketnim istraživanjem 521 ispitanika istražuje se utječe li i dalje šok izazvan promjenama tečaja švicarskog franka na trenutačne kao i na odluke o potrošnji budućeg dohotka putem uzimanja kredita. Očekuju li pojedinci mogućnost ponovne pojave značajnih promjena tečaja i kamatne stope te donose li odluke o potrošnji budućeg dohotka u svjetlu tih očekivanja? Kako bi se ispitalo kako šok nastao promjenama tečaja švicarskog franka utječe na promjenu stava o kreditnom zaduživanju primijenjena je binarna logistička regresija. Rezultati pokazuju da je prirodni logaritam šanse da je na pojedinca šok imao utjecaja na stav o kreditnom zaduživanju pozitivno povezan s doživljajem šoka (p < 0,001) i negativno povezan s trenutačnom zaduženošću (p < 0,001).

Keynes and the dollar in 1933: the gold-buying program and exchange rate gyrations

In December 1933, John Maynard Keyes published an open letter to President Roosevelt, where he wrote: ‘The recent gyrations of the dollar have looked to me more like a gold standard on the booze than the ideal managed currency of my dreams.’ This was a criticism of the ‘gold-buying program’ launched in October 1933. In this article I use high-frequency data on the dollar–pound and dollar–franc exchange rates to investigate whether the gyrations of the dollar were unusually high in late 1933. My results show that although volatility was pronounced, it was not higher than during some other periods after 1921. Moreover, dollar volatility began to subside towards the end of the period alluded to by Keynes.

Do Risk Disclosures Matter When it Counts? Evidence from the Swiss Franc Shock

We examine the relation between disclosure quality and information asymmetry among market participants following an exogenous shock to macroeconomic risk. In 2015, the Swiss National Bank abruptly announced that it would abandon the longstanding minimum euro‐Swiss franc exchange rate. We find evidence suggesting that firms with more transparent disclosures regarding their foreign exchange risk exposure ex ante exhibit significantly lower information asymmetry ex post. The information gap in bid‐ask spreads appears within 30 minutes of the announcement and persists for two weeks, during which new information gradually substitutes for past disclosures. We validate the information dynamics of past risk disclosures with three field surveys: (1) Sell‐side analysts emphasize the importance of existing (risk) disclosures in evaluating the translational and transactional effects of the currency shock. (2) Lending banks’ credit officers rely on past disclosures as the primary information source available for smaller (unlisted) firms in the immediate aftermath of the shock. (3) Investor‐relations managers use existing financial filings as a key resource when communicating with external stakeholders. The results suggest that historical disclosures help investors attenuate information asymmetry in light of unexpected news.

Financial Markets' Views about the Euro–Swiss Franc Floor

Exchange rates and option prices incorporate market participants' views about the credibility and the effects of exchange rate targets. I present a model to determine exchange rates under policy targets that can be used to price options. The model is estimated with Euro–Swiss Franc exchange rate and options price data. In the first few months of the minimum exchange rate policy, the implied survival probability of the policy for a 3‐month horizon was typically less than 75%. Over time, the credibility increased and this probability reached 95% in August 2014.

Appreciation Pressures and Real Depreciation: The Experience with the Swiss Franc-Euro Exchange Rate Floor

<p>We study the course of the Swiss price level during the recent episode where Switzerland enforced a floor on the Swiss Franc exchange rate relative to the Euro. Given the strong nominal upward pressure on the Swiss currency the introduced limit of 1.20 Francs per Euro led to a quasi-fixed exchange rate from 2011 until early 2015. This measure was specifically aimed at helping the firms of the Swiss export sector to compete internationally. A further reason for imposing this floor was the Swiss National Bank’s concern with deflationary pressures. Interestingly, it turned out that during the episode with a quasi-fixed exchange rate the Swiss price level came under downward pressure. We offer an analysis that helps to understand this depreciation of the Swiss currency in real terms which in fact contributed to the exchange rate floor being eventually abandoned. The article thus clarifies some intricate mechanisms affecting the choice of exchange rate policies which are so important for firms in the export sector. As a theoretical contribution (complementing the well-known Balassa-Samuelson analysis) the article presents a computable equilibrium model that explains real exchange rate variations with diverging trends in the productivity growth of the non-traded goods sectors of economies.</p>

Swiss franc's one-sided target zone during 2011–2015

On 6 September 2011, a ceiling on the value of the Swiss franc was imposed, at CHF 1.2 per euro. With the continuous weakness of the euro area economy, this exchange rate limit was abandoned on 15 January 2015. This paper proposes a quasi-bounded process for the Swiss franc exchange rate dynamics under a one-sided target zone during this period, in which the exchange rate can breach the strong-side limit under a restricted condition of the relationship between the parameters of the drift term and stochastic part of the process. The empirical results using market data during 6 September 2011–14 January 2015 with a rolling one-year window suggest that this model can describe the dynamics of the Swiss franc under a one-sided target zone, where the drifting force is an increasing function of foreign reserves. While the exchange rate was bounded below the strong-side limit during most of the time, as indicated by its dynamics, the condition for breaching the limit was met in November 2014 using only information until that point, i.e., about two months before abandoning the limit.

Quantitative modelling of the EUR/CHF exchange rate during the target zone regime of September 2011 to January 2015

Krugman (1991)'s target zone model for exchange rate dynamics has become the reference of a large part of this literature. Despite its simplicity and elegance, empirical evidence has been lacking, not least because it is difficult to capture the predicted non-linear relationship between the observable exchange rate and the non-observable fundamental value. This is why we propose a different approach. By inverting locally the relation between exchange rate and fundamental value, we derive analytical expressions for the conditional volatility and the probability density as a function of the exchange rate. This allows us to examine Krugman's prediction directly from historical data, and, furthermore, enables us to test the smooth pasting condition, which is intimately related to the no-arbitrage condition. Concretely, we study the performance of the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate in the extraordinary period from September 6, 2011 to January 15, 2015, when the Swiss National Bank enforced a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. We show that the data are well explained by the theory and conclude that Krugman's target zone model holds after all, but apparently only under extreme and sustained pressure that pushes continuously the exchange rate very close to the boundary of the target zone.