Vulnerability Framework Research Articles

Water resource vulnerability assessment in Hubei Province: a case study

In view of the different views of academia on the weight allocation of vulnerability assessment indicators, this study creatively proposed a data-based objective evaluation framework of water resource vulnerability, and applied it to the evaluation of water resource vulnerability in Hubei Province. According to the conceptual model of DPSIR proposed by the United Nations, five vulnerability factors are proposed: driving force, pressure, state, influence and response. In this study, 15 indicators were selected and the projection tracing model was used to identify vulnerability. Aiming at the complex problem of optimization calculation of projection index function in the projection tracing model, the accelerated genetic algorithm is used to speed up the optimization speed, solves the optimization problem in the process of projection tracing, and determines the objective weight of all indicators. Example calculation shows that the model can deal with complex multi-index optimization problems, and is an effective way to solve the comprehensive evaluation of complex vulnerability, and the weighting method is important for the evaluation of water resources vulnerability. The results of this paper show that the combination of projection tracing method and machine learning algorithm can improve the efficiency, objectivity and accuracy of high-dimensional data analysis, and can provide scientific basis for policy makers.

A queer feminist posthuman framework for bioethics: on vulnerability, antimicrobial resistance, and justice.

In this paper, I discuss the bioethical principle of justice and the bioethical key concept of vulnerability, in a queer feminist posthuman framework. I situate these contemplations, philosophical by nature, in the context of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), one the most vicious moral problems of our time. Further, I discuss how gender and sexual variance, vulnerability and justice manifest in AMR. I conclude by considering my queer feminist posthuman framework for vulnerability and justice in relation to the notion of antibiotic vulnerabilities, suggesting a lacuna for further AMR research.

Dynamic response of flood risk in urban-township complex to future uncertainty

Flooding has emerged as a critical global issue exacerbated by climate change and urban development. This study addresses the significant spatial heterogeneity in flood severity along the urban-rural gradient, which is influenced by variations in ecohydrological and geochemical structures. Despite the importance of understanding the dynamic evolution of flood risk under different disaster scenarios, its influence by urban-rural gradients and response to future uncertainty remain inadequately explored. By developing a comprehensive vulnerability and hazard index framework integrated with a hydrodynamic model, this study not only simulated the dynamic evolution of Urban Vulnerability Value (UV) and Township Hazard Value (TH) during heavy rainfall events but also highlighted their wider implications for flood risk management under future uncertainty. The findings revealed that urban vulnerability exhibited a stable and concentrated distribution, while township hazard values demonstrated significant sensitivity and variability. Notably, the study underscored that under future uncertainty, flood risk responses are likely to intensify (UV and TH increasing by 2.4 and 2.7 times, respectively), with township areas becoming more sensitive to flooding. These insights contributed to a deeper understanding of how urban-rural gradient influences dynamic flood risk, offering valuable guidance for effective flood management strategies in similar regions.

Measurement and impact analysis of social vulnerability to geological disasters in Guizhou Province, China

Investigating social vulnerability is a crucial aspect of attaining an in-depth understanding of disasters and disaster risk. This study developed a measurement framework for social vulnerability to geological disasters, obtained a comprehensive social vulnerability index, and compared the spatial distribution patterns of fatalities, social vulnerability, and geological disaster-prone zones. These efforts assisted in determining the strength and character of the relationship between geological disaster fatality risk and social vulnerability at the county level. The findings show that: (1) the social vulnerability to geological disasters index varies significantly between counties. High social vulnerability is primarily concentrated in Bijie City, Guizhou province, which shows concentrated clustering. Conversely, low social vulnerability is mainly concentrated in Guiyang City: (2) the spatial distribution patterns reveal the limitations of disaster exposure in explaining fatality risk and demonstrate the ability of social vulnerability to amplify disaster risk; (3) the zero-inflated negative binomial regression model fit the data significantly better than the negative binomial regression model, suggesting that for every one unit increase in the social vulnerability index, there is a 6.33% increase in the risk of fatalities, holding all other variables constant. This study establishes a specific framework for measuring social vulnerability to geological disasters and provides new evidence of how social vulnerability influences disaster risk intensity. The county-level spatial measurement results can further assist disaster management personnel in formulating more localized mitigation strategies. The findings will further support the identification of core remediation sites and the implementation of management and relocation (avoidance) projects during Guizhou Province’s 14th Five-Year Plan for geological disaster prevention and control.

Beyond the traditional distinctions of genome editing: evaluating a vulnerability framework.

Over 40years ago, the 1982 Splicing Life report outlined the two distinctions that have orientated much of the normative and legal landscape of genetic intervention or genome editing since - that of somatic versus germline (or heritable interventions) and medical versus non-medical (or enhancement) applications. During this time, these distinctions have been used to ethically prioritize some areas of research and potential application, such as somatic treatments, while considering others for prohibition, such as germline enhancements. Nevertheless, somatic interventions may also be done for controversial enhancement purposes while some germline interventions may be done with greater prima facie justification (e.g., the enhancement of athletic ability versus the avoidance of Tay-Sachs disease). Even with new somatic treatments that are generally lauded, exemplified with the case of Casgevy, many issues still arise - such as cost and access, particularly salient on a global level. The concerns over a dystopian future of genetic haves and have nots, as a result of enhancement and/or germline interventions, that perhaps may happen, should not distract us from a greater attention to what is happening in the here and now. In this paper, we will highlight the limits of the two distinctions in terms of moving from questions of "should a technology be used" to "how should a technology be used." We argue that an additional focus on vulnerability and marginalization can be useful to support the attempt to better prioritize which interventions should be permitted or prohibited. We show how this can better dovetail with calls for effective (global) governance and reasonable consensus by focusing on the most urgent issues and developing policy accordingly, while leaving aside more abstract issues for further discussion.

Mapping coastal resilience: a Gis-based Bayesian network approach to coastal hazard identification for Queensland’s dynamic shorelines

Coastal regions worldwide face increasing threats from climate change-induced hazards, necessitating more accurate and comprehensive vulnerability assessment tools. This study introduces an innovative approach to coastal vulnerability assessment by integrating Bayesian Networks (BN) with the modern coastal vulnerability (CV) framework. The resulting BN-CV model was applied to Queensland's coastal regions, with a particular focus on tide-modified and tide-dominated beaches, which constitute over 85% of the studied area. The research methodology involved beach classification based on morphodynamic characteristics, spatial subdivision of Queensland's coast into 78 sections, and the application of the BN-CV model to analyze interactions between geomorphological features and oceanic dynamics. This approach achieved over 90% accuracy in correlating beach types with vulnerability factors, significantly outperforming traditional CVI applications. Key findings include the identification of vulnerability hotspots and the creation of detailed exposure and sensitivity maps for Gold Coast City, Redland City, Brisbane City, and the Sunshine Coast Regional area. The study revealed spatial variability in coastal vulnerability, providing crucial insights for targeted management strategies. The BN-CV model demonstrates superior precision and customization capabilities, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal vulnerability in regions with diverse beach typologies. This research advocates for the adoption of the BN-CV approach to inform tailored coastal planning and management strategies, emphasizing the need for regular reassessments and sustained stakeholder engagement to build resilience against climate change impacts.Recommendations include prioritizing adaptive infrastructure in high-exposure areas like the Gold Coast, enhancing flood management in Brisbane, improving socio-economic adaptive capacity in Redland, and maintaining natural defences in Moreton Bay. This study contributes significantly to the field of coastal risk management, providing a robust tool for policymakers and coastal managers to develop more effective strategies for building coastal resilience in the face of climate change.

A flexible data‐driven approach to co‐producing drought vulnerability assessments

AbstractIntensifying weather events are key characteristics of climate change that are fundamentally changing ecological disturbance regimes. Intensifying drought is a particular threat to species, ecosystems, and ecosystem services worldwide. Proactive drought adaptation measures are acutely needed, but without a better understanding of drought vulnerability at the appropriate scale and geography, such measures may not be effective, or even anticipated as potential options. A recent conceptual framework for ecological drought aligns a holistic suite of potential drivers with the key components of climate change vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity). We leverage the ecological drought framework and components of vulnerability to introduce a six‐step process for developing a drought vulnerability assessment (DVA) that (1) is place‐based and avoids mismatches between assessment geography and management action, (2) uses existing empirical datasets and leverages machine learning techniques and remotely sensed data from a recent drought, (3) emphasizes the inclusion of stakeholders and the importance of data visualization and science communication, and (4) is flexible and adaptable to a wide range of planning contexts. We illustrate the DVA process with a case study for forested watersheds in the Missouri Headwaters (MH), Montana, USA, that is focused on the impact of an early 2000s drought event on forest health. We show how the DVA provides insights on drought vulnerability that are helpful starting points for co‐developing region‐specific management actions to prepare for the next drought, including strategies to enhance ecologically available water, reduce competition for water, promote ecosystem persistence under drought conditions, and prioritize sites for forest restoration, transition, or protection. The work described here provides a model for developing a DVA in other places that, when used in a participatory adaptation planning process, supports the implementation of effective adaptation strategies.

The impact of population change on social-ecological systems’ vulnerability: A case of the Qinling-Daba Mountains of Southern Shaanxi in China

Human activities have exacerbated the contradiction between ecosystem functionality and social-economic growth. Understanding and managing social-ecological systems' changes under the dual drivers of intensive human activities and rapid global environmental changes are crucial for achieving coordinated and sustainable development. While the vulnerability framework provides a new perspective for human-environment relationship studies, limited research has focused on the impact mechanisms of population change on social-ecological systems' vulnerability (SESV). Therefore, this study selects the Qinling-Daba Mountains of Southern Shaanxi in China (QMSSC), one of the areas with the most prominent human-environment contradictions in China, as a case study. Using the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) assessment framework and the Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability (SERV) model, we divide SESV into three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We select indicators, calculate weights, and quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, evolution trends, and spatial correlation features of SESV in the QMSSC from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, we reveal the impact mechanisms of population change on SESV. The results indicate that the impact of population outflow on SESV depends on the spatiotemporal distribution of SESV. Gender ratio's impact on SESV is closely linked to land use and economic development. The proportion of elderly population affects SESV through adaptive capacity. In other words, population change often indirectly drives SESV by affecting different dimensions or elements of SESV. This necessitates policymakers to deploy population strategies across dimensions and elements. This study aims to provide reference for population development policies and spatial governance directions in globally underdeveloped mountainous regions through a typical case analysis of China's mountainous areas.

Intersecting Inequities for Older LGBTQ+ Adults of Color in the Advent of Medicare Access: A Structural Vulnerability Framework

Intersecting Inequities for Older LGBTQ+ Adults of Color in the Advent of Medicare Access: A Structural Vulnerability Framework

Colombian Oil Energy Security through a Framework of Risks and Vulnerabilities

The dynamics of oil markets are influenced by both international and local contexts, which determine their potential for success and sustainability. This article uses a conceptual methodology to analyze the characteristics that are present in successful energy markets. These characteristics can help identify inhibitors and barriers that may hinder the growth and development of the market. The analytical-propositive methodological design consists of three phases: firstly, a diagnosis is conducted to describe the costs associated with oil production, which will allow for the identification of economic characteristics. Secondly, attributes of the Colombian oil market are identified through a documentary and regulatory analysis. Finally, strategic guidelines are inferred, which can be used as inputs for the formulation of energy policies. The results highlight that sustainable development policies must involve both public and private actors to strengthen decision-making and the quality of processes, thereby providing greater scope.

Livelihood vulnerability to climate change health impacts among Amhara Sayint district community, northeastern Ethiopia: A composite index approach

Climate change significantly impacts public health, affecting nearly everyone across the globe and contributing to approximately 10% of global mortality. Ethiopia is particularly vulnerable to the changing climate attributed impacts due to economic, and social determinants. While research on climate change is expanding, it often prioritizes its effects on agriculture. The impacts from public health perspective are frequently overlooked. We address this shortcoming by evaluating the vulnerability of the community in the district of Amhara Sayint, Amhara, northeastern Ethiopia, to the health impacts of climate change, and identifying factors involved. Data was collected using a community-based cross-sectional approach, involving 605 randomly selected households between July Twenty and September Five, 2022. The data collection process utilized a validated and pilot-tested questionnaire, which was administered through face-to-face interview with the aid of Kobo Collect toolbox. The community's vulnerability was assessed using the IPCC's framework of vulnerability. Household's Vulnerability status was then classified into three levels according to their Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) score. A partial proportional oddsapproach of ordinal logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with vulnerability to climate change attributed health impacts. Among the 605 respondents, 48% (95% CI: 44.1, 52.1) were identified as vulnerable, and about 4.6 % (95% CI: 3, 6.6) were classified as highly vulnerable. Wealth status (AOR1 = 1.8; 95 % CI: 1.2, 2.8), educational status (AOR1 = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.1, 7.3), marital status (AOR2 = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.6, 13.4), and home crowdedness (AOR2 = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.1, 8.1) significantly associated with vulnerability. Over half of the residents in the district wereeither being vulnerable or highly vulnerable to climate change attributed health impacts. Therefore, prioritizing prevention and preparedness along with conducting spatial analysis to identify high-risk areas for timely intervention, is essential.

CONCEPTUALIZATION OF TURNER'S VULNERABILITY – MOUNTAINOUS GEOGRAPHICAL TOURISM SENSITIVITY TO NATURAL DISASTER

While interest in studying the impact of natural disasters on tourism is growing, a noticeable gap exists in exploring destination-level tourism sensitivity, particularly in geographical contexts. This study addresses this gap by using the 2015 Ranau earthquake as a case study to assess the sensitivity of mountainous geographical tourism to natural disasters, employing the Turner Vulnerability Framework. In-depth interviews with Ranau's tourism entrepreneurs and operators, selected through purposive sampling, provide insights, and thematic analysis is conducted to understand qualitative responses comprehensively. The findings reveal that mountain tourism in Ranau showed significant sensitivity to the 2015 earthquake, primarily attributed to the Source element, including tourism products, business size, development, and perceived disaster impact. In contrast, the Power elements exhibited relatively lower sensitivity. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring geographical-based adaptations within tourism systems in response to natural disasters and emphasize integrating natural disaster management into tourism development for long-term sustainability.

Exploring intra-urban thermal stress vulnerability within 15-minute city concept: Example of heat waves 2021 in Moscow

Heat vulnerability in big cities is important because of the increase in heat wave frequency and thermal stress that is identified by Urban Heat Island. Our study investigated intra-urban heat vulnerability in Moscow, which strongly influenced by historic context in urban planning, with a focus on local disparities. We considered the vulnerability framework in terms of “exposure,” “sensitivity,” and “adaptive capacity,” and adopted the concept of a 15-minute city to evaluate spatial patterns on example of 2021 heat waves. We used high-resolution meteorological data from the regional meteorological model COSMOCLM and calculated the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) to assess thermal stress and define exposure. The data from OSM and other open sources were used to assess sensitivity and adaptive capacity through the proximity of green spaces, cooling centers, healthcare, and premium service facilities. The PET varied from 25.3 °C in the outskirts to 30.2 °C in Moscow centre; however, variations in thermal stress did not have adverse effects on the spatial patterns of vulnerability. The vulnerability indicator in the east was six times higher than in more prosperous areas of the center, north and southwest, due to historical development, mainly the transformation from former industrial areas into residential areas.

Repeat wildfire and smoke experiences shared by four communities in Southern California: local impacts and community needs

Abstract Families in unincorporated communities in Southern California’s Eastern Coachella Valley (ECV) increasingly experience the burden of repeat wildfires and smoke. This study describes their lived wildfire and smoke experiences, health impacts, unique community-level inequities that compound wildfire risk and air quality effects, communication preferences, and resource needs for future wildfire preparedness. A wildfire community vulnerability framework informed the focus group discussion guide, exploring individual, community, and local government level factors that potentially influence community response and mitigation behaviors to repeat wildfire and smoke. Ten focus groups with 118 participants occurred in spring 2023 with four communities in ECV, California. Findings center on narratives of acute wildfire-related experiences, including evacuation and burned trailer homes, acute and chronic self report physical and mental health impacts of wildfires and smoke, daily life disruptions, staying indoors for protection, and local interactions described as a community strength in responding to fires. Participants from unincorporated, low-income, and monolingual Spanish-speaking communities predominantly consisting of farm workers requested greater emergency preparedness and response information, training and education in Spanish, postfire resources, lower trash service fees, increased enforcement of illegal dumping and burning, and use of multimodal and bilingual communication channels for wildfire, smoke, and wind alerts.

Labour Migration and Human Trafficking in Andhra Pradesh, India: A ‘Determinants of Migrant Vulnerability’ Perspective

Labour migration, other than being a key driver of economic growth and development, is also associated with inconsistent human rights practices. This paper furthers the understanding of links between migration and human trafficking in Andhra Pradesh, India. It applies IOM’s Determinants of Vulnerability Framework to assess and analyse the various ways in which vulnerabilities of the migrant unorganised and casual labourers are constructed as they are forced to migrate for livelihood security. The study employed a mixed-methods approach which included a survey of 5888 individuals, seven case studies, five focus group discussions and 121 key informant interviews. The paper confirms that migration, by itself, does not lead to trafficking. A number of intersecting, inter-related factors at individual, household, community, and structural levels add to risks or provide protection against trafficking to a migrant before, during or after the process of migration. Relatedly, the paper argues that the process of migration is a continuum between vulnerability, unsafe migration, and trafficking.

Identification and Prioritization of Thermal Environment Regulation Hotspots in Chengdu

Temperature condition in urban areas has a substantial impact on the well-being and safety of both urban residents and the ecosystems. Green spaces are crucial for mitigating urban heat impacts, and hence, their balanced supply and demand is essential. Due to rapid urbanization, Chengdu has had a significant increase in population, which has had an impact on the dynamic changes in its green space environment, making it a suitable case for our study. This study employs the high-temperature vulnerability framework to classify urban green spaces as entities that regulate the thermal environment. This classification is based on the analysis of ecosystem service supply and demand. The approach creates an assessment framework for managing the balance between the need for and availability of thermal environment regulation in urban green spaces. The study utilizes matching and a priority index to identify places in Chengdu where there are imbalances between supply and demand for services. Our findings suggest: (1) The demand for regulating the thermal environment in Chengdu’s green spaces is defined by three indices: thermal exposure, thermal sensitivity, and thermal adaptability. High-demand areas account for a relatively small proportion and exhibit a pattern of “global diffusion and local concentration”. (2) The supply capacity in Chengdu is determined by both the size of green spaces and the surface temperature. High-supply capacity areas are mainly located in the southeastern part of the city, and their distribution pattern is similar to that of green spaces. (3) The level of correspondence between the supply and demand in Chengdu varies significantly and can be classified into three categories: “insufficient supply and high demand”, “insufficient supply and low demand”, and “abundant supply and low demand”. Out of these, 32 units are located in the area with a shortage of supply, while 6 units are in the area with a significant imbalance of low supply and high demand. (4) The green space thermal environment regulation in Chengdu is categorized into four priority intervention levels: priority I, II, III, and IV zones. The priority IV zone, which has a high intervention priority level, consists of two units primarily located in the Inner Ring Qingyang, Inner Ring Jinjiang, Cuijiadian, Caotang, and Donghu, which are deemed crucial for needing prioritized regulation.

Quantifying Drought Impacts Based on the Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability Framework over East Africa

Quantifying Drought Impacts Based on the Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability Framework over East Africa

Comprehensive Artificial Intelligence Vulnerability Taxonomy

With the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) systems and machine learning (ML), there is a need for a comprehensive vulnerability framework that takes into account the specifics of AI systems. A review of the currently available frameworks shows that even though there have been some efforts to create AI specific frameworks, the end results have been flawed. Previous work analysed for this paper include AVID, Mitre ATLAS, Google Secure AI Framework, Attacking Artificial Intelligence, OWASP AI security and privacy guide, and ENISA Multilayer framework for good cybersecurity practices in AI. While only AVID is intended to be an AI/ML focused vulnerability framework, it has some weaknesses that are discussed further in the paper. Of the other works especially the ENISA framework has a valuable way of determining AI domains that can be affected by vulnerabilities. In our taxonomy proposal the first part of the evaluation process is determining the location in the AI system lifecycle that the vulnerability affects. The second part is determining which attributes of technical AI trustworthiness are compromised by the vulnerability. The third part is determining the possible impact of the vulnerability being exploited on a seven-step scale from the AI system functioning correctly, to it performing unintended, attacker directed actions outside the bounds it is supposed to function in. We also evaluate two known AI vulnerabilities based on our taxonomy proposal to showcase the benefits in comparison to existing frameworks.

A method to derive nitrogen transport factors for New Zealand's agricultural lands

Risk index tools have the potential to assist farmers in making strategic decisions regarding their farm design to manage losses of nutrients. Such tools require a vulnerability framework, and these are often based on scores or rankings. These frameworks struggle to take account of interactions between elements of the physical environment. Process-based simulation models inherently take account of interactions and may be a viable alternative to score-based methods. We describe the method to populate a database of transport factors that covers the agricultural lands of New Zealand that is designed for usage as the susceptibility framework within a risk index tool. The method gives both leaching and runoff transport factors and gives values by month. The simulation model used had already been validated for simulating water and nitrogen balances and the generated spatial patterns of the transport factors was validated via expert assessment. These features allow good representation of the risks posed across a wide range of farming activities.•Use of a simulation model to quantify transport factors.•Captures the interactions between soil and weather factors in the physical environment.•Produces a country-wide database intended as a susceptibility framework for a risk index tool.

Seismic fragility assessment of an in-service piled bridge abutment subjected to a liquefaction-induced lateral spreading and mitigation strategy

This study assesses the seismic fragility curves of in-service piled bridge abutments on liquefaction-prone soils and evaluates an optimal countermeasure within the vulnerability framework. Seismic fragility curves, accounting for varying ground motion intensities, assess the seismic risk and describe abutment damage through settlement measurements. The ageing abutment performance is estimated by integrating a corrosion model into fragility curves. The impact of different sheet pile positions on the seismic performance of in-service piled bridge abutments is analysed, and the optimal pile position is discussed. The developed fragility curves provide a rapid and effective risk assessment tool for the seismic performance of in-service abutments and guide liquefaction remedial measures.