Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis Research Articles

Multiple testing of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis across currencies

We develop exact distribution-free test procedures for joint inference about the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) across multiple currencies. The procedures can be applied with either levels or differences specifications. This unified approach proceeds with sign and signed rank tests for each currency and then uses Monte Carlo resampling to control the overall Type I error rate of either: (i) global FRUH tests obtained via combinations of the p -values; or (ii) individual FRUH tests using multiplicity adjusted p -values. Our framework allows for missing data and for the presence of time-varying conditional covariances between currencies. The usefulness of the new procedures is illustrated with a simulation study and with assessments of the FRUH across 13 currencies in an unbalanced panel. Multiplicity adjusted p -values reveal that the joint FRUH rejections are primarily driven by just a few of the more minor currencies. • We develop procedures to test the FRUH across multiple currencies, jointly. • The exchange rate specifications can be in levels or differences. • No assumptions are made about the process governing the forward rates. • Our framework allows for unbalanced panels of currencies. • Inferences are exact and robust to multivariate GARCH-type effects.

Local, global and regional shocks indices in emerging exchange rate markets

Impact of exchange rate shocks on emerging market economies have been studied extensively; however, what is the origin of those shocks remains unanswered in the literature. The main aim of this paper is to fill this gap. We identify local, regional and global shocks in exchange rate markets for 19 major EMEs on a daily basis by using forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis. We find an asymmetry on the effects of both local and global shocks and also show that depreciating effects of both local and global shocks dominate the appreciating effects for almost all countries sampled. Moreover, we find that the external vulnerability indicators and financial development indicators are the main sources of the level of shocks.

Modelling exchange rate movements in South Africa: an ARDL application

This study examined the monetary, unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH), and random walk models of exchange rate in South Africa using the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated results show that there is a long-run relationship between variables in each model, suggesting the examined models are able to predict the exchange rate. In the long run, this paper found a sticky-price monetary model with correct signs but restrictions on money supply are violated. However, both the UFRH restrictions and random walk model were upheld. The models were then used to predict forecasts of the out-of-sample period as compared to the random walk. We found that UFRH outperformed other models. In this context, forward rate is predominantly an unbiased estimator of the future spot exchange rate, suggesting that the South African exchange rate market is efficient.

Modelling exchange rate movements in South Africa: an ARDL application

This study examined the monetary, unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH), and random walk models of exchange rate in South Africa using the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated results show that there is a long-run relationship between variables in each model, suggesting the examined models are able to predict the exchange rate. In the long run, this paper found a sticky-price monetary model with correct signs but restrictions on money supply are violated. However, both the UFRH restrictions and random walk model were upheld. The models were then used to predict forecasts of the out-of-sample period as compared to the random walk. We found that UFRH outperformed other models. In this context, forward rate is predominantly an unbiased estimator of the future spot exchange rate, suggesting that the South African exchange rate market is efficient.

How Puzzling is the Forward Premium Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis

A key theoretical prediction in financial economics is that under risk neutrality and rational expectations, a currency's forward rates should form unbiased predictors of future spot rates. Yet scores of empirical studies report negative slope coefficients from regressions of spot rates on forward rates, which is inconsistent with the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis. We collect 3,643 estimates from 91 research articles and using recently developed techniques investigate the effect of publication and misspecification biases on the reported results. Correcting for these biases yields slope coefficients of 0.31 and 0.98 for developed and emerging currencies respectively, which implies that empirical evidence is in line with the theoretical prediction for emerging economies and less puzzling than commonly thought for developed economies. Our results also suggest that the coefficients are systematically influenced by the choice of data, numeraire currencies, and estimation methods. The findings can be applied to calibrating carry trade strategies for individual currencies.

Efficiency of Foreign Exchange and Its Related Derivatives Market: Evidence From Korea

This study aims to test the efficiency of the Korean foreign exchange market and examine its determinants by employing several well-established methodologies based on current theoretical arguments on the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis and covered interest rate parity. The empirical findings indicate that the foreign exchange market and its related derivatives markets were inefficient during the period 2006-2016, but have improved considerably after the 2008-2009 financial crisis. As the inefficiency prevailed for a long time, emphasis is on the presence of risk premia in the international financial market and the role of central bank intervention.

Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles

AbstractThere are two unresolved puzzles in the foreign exchange literature. The unbiasedness puzzle – the finding of a marked difference in the conclusion about the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis depending on whether the hypothesis is tested using the forward rate equation or forward premium equation, and the forward premium puzzle – the fact that more often than not the forward premium incorrectly predicts the direction of the subsequent change in the spot rate. This paper resolves both puzzles.

The forward premium anomaly in the energy futures markets: A time-varying approach

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the forward premium anomaly by investigating possible statistical explanations for this puzzling phenomenon in the energy market. To this end, time series of spot and different forward maturities for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygen Blending (RBOB) traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) over the period 1986–2018 are used. The statistical properties of the spot and forward premium time series are examined by using unit root tests with structural breaks and a long memory process. The time-varying slope coefficient of regressing spot returns on the lagged forward premium is then estimated via the rolling sample technique and the state space model using the Kalman filter. The empirical results provide strong support for the presence of multiple structural breaks and long memory in the forward premium of the crude oil and RBOB energy time series in contrast to the spot returns series, which are stationary. The results also show evidence for time-varying beta coefficients for all the energy maturities considered. Overall, there is strong evidence for the forward premium anomaly with a larger negative slope parameter for the crude oil compared to the regular RBOB gasoline. The rejection of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis suggests that the futures price cannot play a significant role in price discovery.

How Efficient is the Foreign Exchange Market?

In this paper, we try to measure the degree of efficiency in the foreign exchange market by using four exchange rates ($/€, $/£, C$/$, and ¥/$). Different theoretical models are applied, like the random walk hypothesis, the unbiased forward rate hypothesis, the composite efficiency hypothesis, the semi-strong market efficiency, and the exchange rate expectations based on anticipated and unanticipated events (News). If exchange rate efficiency does not hold, a risk premium must exist and can be measured. Also, the determination of this exchange risk premium is taking place by using a GARCH (p, q) model. The empirical results for these four major exchange rates (five currencies) show that relative efficiency exists, but there are significant risk premia for some exchange rates used, here

GMM Long-Run Variance Estimation via VAR Averaging

This paper examines the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimation of the long-run variance (LRV) matrix of a random vector process in a GMM estimation framework via vector autoregression (VAR) model averaging. By combining a VAR representation of GMM moments and VAR model averaging techniques, we present two new averaging-VAR-based LRV estimators: One constructs the LRV estimator based on the data-dependent weighted VAR residuals, and the other additionally combines with prewhitened kernel estimators in the spirit of Andrews and Monahan (1992). Our former proposal does not suffer from problems involving the choices of a truncation lag (bandwidth) or VAR lag length that are inherent in existing methods; the latter can be viewed as employing the VAR averaging strategy for prewhitening purposes. Theoretical justifications of the proposed methods rely on new consistency results for the averaging least-squares estimation of VAR coefficients and for the proposed LRV estimators. In extensive simulation experiments, our new averaging-VAR-based LRV estimators perform well in finite samples by offering more inference accuracy relative to existing competing estimators, with the improvement particularly prominent when combining VAR averaging with prewhitened kernel estimators. We empirically test the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis to illustrate the utility of our methodology.

LM cointegration tests allowing for an unknown number of breaks: implications for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis

ABSTRACTThis article extends the Lagrange multiplier (LM) cointegration test proposed by Westerlund and Edgerton (WE 2007) by allowing for an unknown number of breaks. Monte Carlo simulations provide two main results. First, a loss of power in the LM cointegration tests is detected when potential multiple breaks are ignored. Second, the modified testing procedures do not affect the asymptotic distribution and major properties of the tests of WE under the null, but noticeably increase their testing power in presence of multiple breaks. We also provide empirical applications of the proposed tests for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH). The results reveal that the FRUH does hold when the effects of the multiple structural breaks are taken into account.

Several Econometric Tests of Exchange Rate Efficiency for a Few European Countries

This paper uses an efficiency specification model of the spot and forward foreign exchange markets and tests the hypotheses for random walk (which cannot be rejected), general efficiency, and unbiasedness by using a regression estimation and various specification and diagnostic tests for the series and the error terms (residuals). Whereas the forward rate is usually viewed as an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate, the unbiased forward rate hypothesis has failed to be rejected for the Canadian dollar, although more research is needed in this particular area so that better statistical inferences can be drawn in the future.

An analysis of forward exchange rate biasedness across developed and developing country currencies: Do observed patterns persist out of sample?

Forward exchange rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) has been a widely researched subject for decades. Recently, the sample populations of these studies have expanded to include developing country currencies. The majority of these findings have been that forward rate biasedness is more pronounced for developed country currencies than it is for developing country currencies. One such paper (Frankel and Poonawala, 2010) has further suggested that this phenomenon may contradict Risk Premium Theory since developing country currencies are relatively more volatile. Our analysis first replicates the results of Frankel and Poonawala and then extends the study out of sample using an updated composition of currency classifications. The results of this extended period of analysis show that forward rate biasedness is less pronounced for developed country currencies than for developing country currencies and consequently does not establish grounds to challenge Risk Premium Theory. Furthermore, our results are consistent with another branch of literature which suggests that conflicting FRUH test results may be particular to the time period examined. It is therefore possible to speculate that period-specific factors were responsible for the results found in previous research.

Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?

This paper provides the first comprehensive study of the horizon effect in tests of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis. It estimates Fama regressions employing 1-month through to 10-year horizon data for the five most heavily traded US dollar currency pairs pre-crisis 1980–2006. In contrast with extant studies, it fully deals with the econometric problems of long horizon regressions by means of a novel heteroskedastic- and autocorrelation-consistent bootstrap. The regression results confirm a clear horizon effect in that the slope coefficient approaches unity as the forward contract maturity is extended. The puzzle disappears at the 3-year horizon and beyond for all currencies.

HEDGING THE VOLATILITY OF SPOT MARKETS WITH FINANCIAL FUTURES: A PRICE DISCOVERY

ABSTRACT Hedging with financial futures is now more than ever an alternative for risk averted and risk neutral investors to help them manage their portfolio’s interest rate risk during volatile periods and periods of active monetary policy. Managing changing volatility is an issue that has fostered the need for traditional mean variance and more sophisticated estimation and prediction models applied to financial market instrument analysis. The purpose of this paper is to measure the degree of predictive capability of selected financial futures instruments to forecast the underlined cash market (spot) instruments in order to assess how well the instruments serve to establish a hedging strategy.The research focuses in the application of time series methodologies and models to simulate situations that investors face regarding interest rate volatility, which affect their portfolio values. In this study, tests of market efficiency in the convergence of futures market instruments to their underlined spot markets counterparts are performed in order to verify how well the futures market can predict the cash market and measure bias risk and persistence (long term memory). Our testing of hedging effectiveness or optimal hedging capability will be assessed using the traditional financial Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis (UFRH). Market efficiency tests show that the UFRH holds for 7 out of 14 instrument co-integrated combinations using futures market hedges. Futures market’s relative efficiency is explained with the statistically significant convergence of the futures Treasury Bills, Fed Funds and Eurodollars instruments to the spot market at expiration dates for terms shorter than six month, using weekly data series analysis for periods between 1991 through 2011. Keywords Market Efficiency, UFRH; Convergence; Co-integration; Error Correction Model; E-Garch; Risk Premium; Noise Risk; Forward Risk; Behavioral Anomalies; Order Flow Information.

The Forward Exchange Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis: A Single Break Unit Root and Cointegration Analysis

In an age of globalized finance, Forex market efficiency is particularly relevant as agents engage in arbitrage opportunities across international markets. This study tests the forward exchange rate unbiasedness hypothesis using more powerful tests such as the Zivot-Andrews single-break unit root and the KPSS stationarity (no unit root) tests to confirm that the USD/EUR spot and three-month forward rates are I(1) in nature. The study successfully employs the Engle-Granger cointegration analysis which identifies a stable long-run relationship between the spot and forward rates and generates an ECM model that is used to forecast the in-sample (historical) data. The study’s findings refute past conclusions that fail to identify the data’s I(1) nature and suggest that market efficiency is present in the long run but not necessarily in the short run.

The forward rate premium puzzle: a case of misspecification?1)

Empirical studies often report a negative relationship between the dif- ference in the spot exchange rate and the forward premium, violating the for- ward-rate unbiasedness hypothesis. Using standard regression on a sample of ten exchange rates, we obtain both positive and negative coefficients. We argue that the negative coefficients could arise as a result of the non-linearities in the relationship and misspecification. As an alternative to the standard regression, we use a time-varying-coefficient technique that estimates bias-free coefficients and, thus, should provide better estimates of the link between spot and forward rates. Our findings strongly support the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis. All the parameters are very close to unity and significant.

Forward Exchange Rate Biasedness Across Developed and Developing Country Currencies: Do Observed Patterns Persist Out of Sample?

Forward exchange rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) has been a widely researched subject for decades. Recently, the sample populations of these studies have expanded to include developing country currencies. The majority of these findings have been that forward rate biasedness is more pronounced for developed country currencies than it is for developing country currencies. One such paper (Frankel and Poonawala 2010) has further suggested that this phenomenon may contradict risk premium theory since developing country currencies are relatively more volatile. Our analysis first replicates the results of Frankel and Poonawala and then extends the study out of sample using an updated composition of currency classifications. The results of this extended period of analysis show that forward rate biasedness is less pronounced for developed country currencies than for developing country currencies and consequently does not establish grounds to challenge risk premium theory. Furthermore, our results are consistent with another branch of literature which suggests that conflicting FRUH test results may be particular to the time period examined. It is therefore possible to speculate that period-specific factors were responsible for the results found in previous research.

The relationship between the Renminbi future spot return and the forward discount rate

We use rolling cointegration tests to investigate the relationship between the Renminbi daily future spot return and the forward discount rate for the period after the currency regime reform in China in July 2005. We find that there are different regimes after this reform and that the financial crisis affects the relationship between the future spot return and the forward discount rate in China. The unbiasedness hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate requires cointegration and a unity coefficient for the forward discount. We conclude that the unbiased forward rate hypothesis only holds in Spring 2009, when the Chinese authorities returned to pegging the Renminbi to the US dollar to overcome the turmoil of the global financial crisis.

A re-examination of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in the presence of multiple unknown structural breaks

We test the Unbiased Forward Rate (UFR) hypothesis using new tests for cointegration developed by Hatemi-J (2008a) that allows for multiple unknown structural breaks. We analyse the Australian dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP) and Japanese yen (JPY) (versus the US dollar (USD)) spot rates and forward rates relationship during the period 5 January 1999 to 28 December 2006. We find that the UFR does hold when the effects of the unknown structural breaks are taken into account. The parameters that we obtained were close to unity; hence, taking into account transaction cost and the existence of a risk premium, earning arbitrage profits may still not be possible. Thus, the markets for these currencies may still be considered as efficient.