Forward-looking Interest Rate Research Articles

Modeling Inflation Expectations in Forward-Looking Interest Rate and Money Growth Rules

We propose a novel approach that directly embeds rational expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR) without the need for any mapping to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Beginning from a fully specified “consensus” structural model, we establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR to obtain RE-consistent structural responses to identified monetary policy shocks. Our RE-SVAR framework facilitates a comparison across two alternative monetary policy indicators that accommodate long horizons in the formation of inflation expectations in the policy rule. We construct clouds of responses of inflation and economic activity to monetary policy shocks. We find large regions of puzzling responses to innovations in the federal funds rate. This suggests that indicator often requires being augmented with more information in standard VAR settings. A money growth rule characterization—with Divisia M4 as a policy indicator—exhibits comparatively larger regions of sensible responses within a low-dimensional textbook model of the economy.

(Mis)Alignment between observed and expected monetary policy: The case of Brazil

The economic agents’ perception of the monetary policy might not coincide with the central bank conduct. We investigate this issue by using both actual and expected data identified by professional forecasters for Brazil, an emerging economy that has long adopted the inflation-targeting regime. We estimate observed, expected, and forward-looking interest rate rules, apply Full-Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) tests, assess restrictions implied by models of information rigidity, and perform several robustness checks. The estimated policy rules respond to inflation deviations and output gap according to theoretical grounds. Professional forecasters, however, do not believe in aggressiveness to fight inflation in longer forecasting horizons, while FIRE tests unveil information rigidity in the short run. There is a misalignment between the Central Bank practice and the private agents’ perception of the monetary policy in the long but not in the short run, suggesting unanchored long-term inflation expectations.

The Curious Case of Backward Short Rates

In this paper, we discuss how to discretize continuous-time short rate models in order to properly handle backward-looking interest rate derivatives. We show that the popular discretization approaches are based on forward-looking one-period rates, making them intrinsically ill-suited to deal with backward-looking rates. We propose a simple backward discretization approach that is beneficial when dealing with both backward-looking and forward-looking interest rate derivatives.

The Taylor principle in a medium-scale macroeconomic model

We consider a medium-scale New-Keynesian model which combines features that have been shown to explain fairly well postwar U.S. business cycles. Our main result demonstrates that the determinacy properties of forward-looking interest rate rules resemble, at least qualitatively, the corresponding outcomes under current-looking rules. We explain how and why the empiri-cally relevant features of our model generate this novel result.

Monetary Policy and Stock Market Volatility

We estimate forward-looking interest rate reaction functions in the spirit of Taylor (1993) for four major central banks augmented by implicit volatilities of stock market indices to proxy financial market stress. Our results suggest that the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank systematically respond to an increase of the implicit volatility by a decrease in the interest rate. We take our results as strong evidence that central banks use interest rates to stabilize financial markets in periods of financial market stress.

MONETARY POLICY REGIME SHIFTS: NEW EVIDENCE FROM TIME‐VARYING INTEREST RATE RULES

We estimate forward‐looking interest rate rules for five large Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development economies, allowing for time variation in the responses to macroeconomic conditions and in the variance of the policy rate. Conventional constant parameter reaction functions likely blur the impact of (1) model uncertainty, (2) conflicting objectives, (3) shifting preferences, and (4) nonlinearities of policymakers' choices. We find that monetary policies followed by the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy are best summarized by feedback rules that allow for time variation in their parameters. Estimates point to sizeable differences in the actual conduct of monetary policies even in countries now belonging to the European Monetary Union. Moreover, our time‐varying parameter specification outperforms the conventional Taylor rule and generalized method of moment–based estimates of reaction functions in tracking the actual Fed funds rate. (JEL E52, E58, E60)

The Taylor Principle in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model

The Taylor Principle is often used to explain macroeconomic stability (see, e.g., Clarida et al. 2000). The reason is that this simple principle guarantees determinacy, i.e., local uniqueness of rational expectations equilibrium, in many New Keynesian models. However, analyses of determinacy are generally conducted in the context of highly stylized models. In the present paper we use a medium-scale model which combines features that have been shown to explain fairly well postwar U.S. business cycles. Our main result demonstrates that the stability properties of forward-looking interest rate rules are very similar to the corresponding outcomes under current-looking rules. This is in stark contrast with many findings that have been obtained in the context of models whose empirical relevance is limited.

Skewed Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Behavior: A Look at the Latin American Inflation Targeting Practice

Estimation of forward-looking interest rate rules is ubiquitous in the context of developed-economy central banks. This paper considers the five countries in Latin America that have adopted the Inflation Targeting framework and performs estimations of forward-looking rules via i) standard least-squares criteria and ii) quantile regressions. The estimated standard mean effects indicate that Brazil, Chile and Mexico are strongly forward-looking for horizons of a year and more. The estimated quantile effects suggest that policy makers in Brazil, Chile and Mexico are likely to have faced more upside than downside risks to their one-year ahead inflation forecasts when setting their policies. JEL Classification: E52, E47.

Impact of asset price fluctuation on China’s monetary policy: An empirical analysis based on quarterly data, 1994–2006

The strenuous fluctuation in global asset price in recent years has had a profound impact on the economic and social development of every country. An empirical analysis indicates that asset prices (the stock price index and real estate prices) are important endogenous variables affecting the interest rate reaction function of central bank monetary policy. With expected inflation as a given, each one percentage point rise in output gap will cause a 0.79 percentage point reduction in interest rates by the central bank and each one percentage point rise in real estate price will result in a 2.2 percentage point rise in interest rates. The stock price index does have an influence on the trends in monetary policy, but it is less salient than the impact of housing prices. We also show that monetary policy that employs asset price as an endogenous variable increases the central bank’s control in seeking to attain its objectives. Therefore we suggest that the central bank should make asset price fluctuation an endogenous variable and incorporate it into its forward-looking interest rate rule, in order to facilitate the healthy development of China’s markets for real estate, stocks and derivatives, energy and bulk commodities and maintain rapid, smooth, sustainable and harmonious economic development.

Money supply, macroeconomic stability, and the implementation of interest rate targets

In this paper the relation between interest rate targets and money supply is analysed in a standard macroeconomic framework with frictionless financial markets and sticky prices. Money supplies are examined that implement equilibrium sequences satisfying forward-looking interest rate targets. An interest rate target with a positive inflation feedback in general corresponds to an accommodating money supply, i.e., money growth rates rising with inflation. It is shown that interest rate targets (like a Taylor-rule), which are consistent with a unique equilibrium, cannot be implemented by money growth rules.

Investment and Interest Rate Policy: A Discrete Time Analysis

This paper analyzes the restrictions necessary to ensure that the interest rate policy rule used by the central bank does not introduce local real indeterminacy into the economy. It conducts the analysis in a Calvo-style sticky price model. A key innovation is to add investment spending to the analysis. In this environment, local real indeterminacy is much more likely. In particular, all forward-looking interest rate rules are subject to real indeterminacy.

Monetary Policy and Business Cycles with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety [with Comments and Discussion

This paper studies the role of endogenous producer entry and product creation for monetary policy analysis and business cycle dynamics in a general equilibrium model with imperfect price adjustment. Optimal monetary policy stabilizes product prices, but lets the consumer price index vary to accommodate changes in the number of available products. The free-entry condition links the price of equity (the value of products) with marginal cost and markups and hence with inflation dynamics. No-arbitrage between bonds and equity links the expected return on shares, and thus the financing of product creation, with the return on bonds, affected by monetary policy via interest rate setting. This new channel of monetary policy transmission through asset prices restores the Taylor Principle in the presence of capital accumulation (in the form of new production lines) and forward-looking interest rate setting, unlike in models with traditional physical capital. We also study the implications of endogenous variety for ...

Capital and Macroeconomic Instabilty in a Discrete-Time Model With Forward-Looking Interest Rate Rules

The authors establish the necessary and sufficient conditions for local real determinacy in a discrete-time production economy with monopolistic competition and a quadratic price adjustment cost under forward-looking policy rules, for the case where capital is in exogenously fixed supply and the case with endogenous capital accumulation. Using these conditions, they show that (i) indeterminacy is more likely to occur with a greater share of payment to capital in value-added production cost; (ii) indeterminacy can be more or less likely to occur with constant capital than with variable capital; (iii) indeterminacy is more likely to occur when prices are modelled as jump variables than as predetermined variables; (iv) indeterminacy is less likely to occur with a greater degree of steady-state monopolistic distortions; and (v) indeterminacy is less likely to occur with a greater degree of price stickiness or with a higher steady-state inflation rate. In contrast to some existing research, the authors' analysis indicates that capital tends to lead to macroeconomic instability by affecting firms' pricing behavior in product markets rather than households' arbitrage activity in asset markets even under forward-looking policy rules.

Capital and macroeconomic instability in a discrete-time model with forward-looking interest rate rules

We establish the necessary and sufficient conditions for local real determinacy in a discrete-time production economy with monopolistic competition and a quadratic price adjustment cost under forward-looking policy rules, for the case where capital is in exogenously fixed supply and the case with endogenous capital accumulation. Using these conditions, we show that (i) indeterminacy is more likely to occur with a greater share of payment to capital in value-added production cost; (ii) indeterminacy can be more or less likely to occur with constant capital than with variable capital; (iii) indeterminacy is more likely to occur when prices are modelled as jump variables than as predetermined variables; (iv) indeterminacy is less likely to occur with a greater degree of steady-state monopolistic distortions; and (v) indeterminacy is less likely to occur with a greater degree of price stickiness or with a higher steady-state inflation rate. In contrast to some existing research, our analysis indicates that capital tends to lead to macroeconomic instability by affecting firms’ pricing behavior in product markets rather than households’ arbitrage activity in asset markets even under forward-looking policy rules.

Some Reflections on the Interactions between the Bank of England's Forecasts and the MPC's Policy Decisions

This paper makes three main points. First, whereas the Monetary Policy Committee's forecasts of inflation and output growth in the UK are comparatively accurate, they cannot forecast deviations around trend, except at short horizons. Second, this is primarily because they adjust policy, the short-term interest rate, to drive inflation/output back to trend at their forecast horizon. This is not apparent when using a Taylor-rule using ex post forecasts, since these are published after taking account of policy changes. I use a rule of thumb to re-engineer estimates of the ex ante forecasts, upon which the policy decision was based. Also, because of the lengthy lags in the transmission mechanism, Central Bank decision-makers relate their interest decisions, not to current variables, but to forecast values for future inflation and output, with a forward-looking interest rate reaction function of the form: $$i_{t} = a b_{1} E_{t} {+AFw-left( {+AFw-pi _{{t j}} - +AFw-pi *} +AFw-right)} b_{2} E_{t} {+AFw-left( {y_{{t j}} } +AFw-right)}$$

Investment and interest rate policy: a discrete time analysis

This paper analyzes the restrictions necessary to ensure that the interest rate policy rule used by the central bank does not introduce local real indeterminacy into the economy. It conducts the analysis in a Calvo-style sticky price model. A key innovation is to add investment spending to the analysis. In this environment, local real indeterminacy is much more likely. In particular, all forward-looking interest rate rules are subject to real indeterminacy.

Forward-Looking Interest Rate Rules as a Tool for Central Bank Watching

This paper examines estimated forward-looking interest rate rules as a tool for measuring and forecasting monetary policy. Estimation and forecasting results are presented referring to the U.S. monetary policy. Provided that an accurate set of imputs is used, such simple rules prove very helpful in predicting the size and timing of the Fed's moves. However, the statistical precision of these instruments is still rather poor, and a more accurate treatment of interest rate smoothing is urgently needed.

Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria

In this paper, we characterize conditions under which interest rate feedback rules that set the nominal interest rate as an increasing function of the inflation rate induce aggregate instability by generating multiple equilibria. We show that these conditions depend not only on the monetary-fiscal regime (as emphasized in the fiscal theory of the price level) but also on the way in which money is assumed to enter preferences and technology. We provide a number of examples in which, contrary to what is commonly believed, active monetary policy in combination with a fiscal policy that preserves government solvency under all circumstances gives rise to multiple equilibria, and passive monetary policy renders the equilibrium unique. Our general conclusion holds in flexible- and sticky-price environments as well as under backward- or forward-looking interest rate feedback rules.