Forward-looking Framework Research Articles

The sustainability of the Arctic: A case study analysis of container shipping

The Circumpolar North area's geography is changing, however, developing commercial shipping operations aiming to utilize Arctic trade routes is a speculative topic containing uncertainties. The Arctic has a unique, highly fragile ecosystem and the region is in early phases of development. Therefore, it would be a mistake to approach the development of the region with only commercial goals in mind. A comprehensive, forward-looking framework which integrates considerations of planning, development and climate change to create resiliency is necessary for the Arctic future. This cannot be established without cooperation of all related actors and stakeholders. This paper aims to support decision-making by finding potential solutions while discussing possible policies on container shipping within the Arctic; regarding sustainability issues of shipping industry and the Arctic region.

Technologies in service communication: looking forward

PurposeThe aim of the paper is to bring together the state-of-the-art research and theory from the communication and service research fields to examine the implications of new technologies for the future of service communication.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply the media affordances perspective to develop an overarching framework that facilitates theoretical conceptualization and research question formulation on the constantly evolving technology-enabled communication formats.FindingsCentral to the forward-looking framework of service communication facilitated by new technologies, this paper identifies various affordances at the service frontline where service customers and providers interact with the technologies. Customers are empowered to expand their roles blurring the role distinction between service providers and customers. Depending on what kind of relationships service providers form with the emerging technologies, they may develop new service communication strategies and new interaction possibilities with customers. As a result, the technologies' affordances would facilitate value creation outcomes that can manifest in the external (whether it is in the physical or digital space) and/or internal (one's own mind) spaces. Applying the affordances framework, the authors map out four key areas of future research regarding new technologies in service communication: (1) social media technologies; (2) multisensory reality-enhancing technologies; (3) AI-enabled voice assistants; and (4) AI-driven service robots.Originality/valueThis paper proposes an original theoretical framework to stimulate and guide future research and theory development regarding the implications of new technologies in the constantly evolving and complex service communication landscape.

An approach to pluralizing socionatural resilience through assemblages

Resilience provides a forward-looking framework to understand human–environment relations. Yet, adopted through a system-modelling approach in coupled social-ecological systems, it often reinforces a functionalist vision of the world as an interconnected whole, unable to engage with the multiplicity of people’s practices navigating change. I argue for sustained engagement with resilience and propose a socionatural approach to overcome its system-modelling limitations, thinking through the world’s entities as inherently social and natural. I discuss how socionatural resilience can be pluralized through assemblage ideas and reflect on the implications that an ontological politics of resilience poses for our conceptual framing and methodologies.

Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda

National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-looking framework, which mobilizes and organizes resources and sets processes for regular forecasting rounds. The core of this system is a structural macroeconomic model for macroeconomic analysis and projections to support the BNR staff’s policy recommendations to the monetary policy committee. This paper documents the quarterly projection model (QPM) at the core of the FPAS at the BNR. The model is an extension of the canonical structure in Berg et al (2006) to reflect specifics of the interest-rate-based policy framework with a managed exchange rate, the effect of agricultural sector and harvests on prices, and the role of fiscal policies and aid flows.

Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda

National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-looking framework, which mobilizes and organizes resources and sets processes for regular forecasting rounds. The core of this system is a structural macroeconomic model for macroeconomic analysis and projections to support the BNR staff’s policy recommendations to the monetary policy committee. This paper documents the quarterly projection model (QPM) at the core of the FPAS at the BNR. The model is an extension of the canonical structure in Berg et al (2006) to reflect specifics of the interest-rate-based policy framework with a managed exchange rate, the effect of agricultural sector and harvests on prices, and the role of fiscal policies and aid flows.

Framework to evaluate quality performance of green building delivery: construction and operational stage

Quality performance in construction is the degree of compliance with the specifications against which the work was executed. Green buildings extend the compliance to sustainability-related aspects to ensure that the energy and water consumption is conserved, promote a healthy indoor environmental quality and reducing the detrimental impacts of the construction activities on the environment. The operational stage reflects the construction workmanship and the effectiveness of the design solution to achieve the sustainability requirements through the overall building performance. Procedures for maintenance and overhauling extend the longevity of buildings. Green buildings exhibit underperformance caused by inadequate construction practices and a lack of understanding of the operations and maintenance practices. This research serves to tackle this problem through a comprehensive and forward-looking framework to depict construction- and operation-related quality activities through an integrated definition for the function modeling (IDEF0) process model. Semi-structured interviews and a focus group validate the framework’s suitability and its implementation offered revelations from industry practitioners on the factors affecting quality procedures from assigned metrics, liaison of staff from different project lifecycle stages, green building technologies, commissioning and retro-commissioning and impact of project delivery systems adopted especially in isolating operational liaison. The contributions of this work reinforce the impact of quality on the sustainability objectives that a green building is envisioned to serve, and through capturing the pre-, during, and post-construction lifecycle, the compliance and performance quality aspects are combined in a more integrated manner.

Looking inward, outward, and forward: Exploring the process of transformative learning in teacher education for a sustainable future

Sustainability education plays a pivotal role in driving change in the present and shaping our global future. This study explores the process of transformative learning among 67 preservice elementary teachers (PSTs) enrolled in a sustainability science course by analyzing six assignments submitted throughout the semester. Using a combined deductive–inductive coding procedure guided by transformative learning theory, our analyses document how PSTs looked inward (e.g., thinking, feeling), outward (e.g., making connections, relating to others), and forward (e.g., taking action) toward building a sustainable future. During the course, all PSTs experienced a disorienting dilemma, the foundation upon which transformative learning takes place. However, few PSTs demonstrated higher-level perspective transformation. When imagining alternative futures, PSTs drew on limited exposure to sustainability-oriented curricula and practices at internship sites, and perhaps as a consequence, most PSTs reflected foremost on their own lifestyles and consumer actions as primary areas for transformation. Moreover, PSTs rarely viewed themselves as potential agents of collective, policy-directed, or collaborative change. Importantly, it was uncommon for PSTs to reflect on their potential role as agents of change as educators who can cultivate sustainability within their classrooms and through their students. Returning to the inward-, outward-, and forward-looking framework, this paper closes with several recommendations for improving the transformative potential of teacher education—particularly towards preparing PSTs to recognize and actualize their potential to influence both what sustainability science content is taught, how these curricula are addressed, and their role in the classroom as agents of societal transformation toward sustainability.

Targeting Tumor Metabolism in Anti-Cancer Drug Discovery

Cancer cells have evolved to develop sets of survival strategies to enable them not only to survive and ward off apoptosis-inducing effects of most chemotherapeutic drugs in current use but also proliferate and invade their surrounding healthy tissue. In the 1920’s, based on his pioneering research, Warburg hypothesized cancer cells rely on glycolysis for energy production to sustain their growth because their mitochondrial metabolism is dysfunctional. This review focuses on the current advances in cancer cell metabolism as a result of the recent resurgence of interests in the “Warburg hypothesis” (also called “Warburg effect”) and discusses how these advances have revealed potential anti-cancer drug targets. Additionally, we will also discuss metabolic pathways that are critically coupled to cancer cell survival and proliferation, thereby uncovering other putative anti-cancer drug targets for therapeutic consideration. Thus, we hope to provide a forward-looking framework for discussing and designing new anti-cancer therapies.

Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda

National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-looking framework, which mobilizes and organizes resources and sets processes for regular forecasting rounds. The core of this system is a structural macroeconomic model for macroeconomic analysis and projections to support the BNR staff's policy recommendations to the monetary policy committee. This paper documents the quarterly projection model (QPM) at the core of the FPAS at the BNR. The model is an extension of the canonical structure in Berg et al (2006) to reflect specifics of the interest-rate-based policy framework with a managed exchange rate, the effect of agricultural sector and harvests on prices, and the role of fiscal policies and aid flows.

An Integrated All-Atlantic Ocean Observing System in 2030

The ocean plays a vital role in the global climate system and biosphere, providing crucial resources for humanity including water, food, energy and raw materials. There is a compelling need to develop an integrated basin-scale ocean observing system to support of ocean management. We articulate a vision for basin-scale ocean observing - A comprehensive All-Atlantic Ocean Observing Systems that benefits all of us living, working and relying on the ocean. Until now, basin-scale ocean observation has been conducted through loosely-aligned arrangements of national and international efforts. The All-Atlantic Ocean Observing System (AtlantOS) is an ntegrated concept for a forward-looking framework and basin-scale partnership to establish a comprehensive ocean observing system for the Atlantic Ocean as a whole. The system will be sustainable, multi-disciplinary, multi-thematic, efficient, and fit-for-purpose. Platforms, networks, and systems do already exist that operate at various maturity levels. AtlantOS will go beyond the status quo by bringing together the observing communities and countries of the Atlantic basin, providing the opportunity to join and support the system. AtlantOS will build upon the coordinated work of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), two international bodies that support and coordinate global ocean observing. AtlantOS will complement those efforts and offers a new approach to organizing ocean observing at the basin-scale. The new SystemAtlantOS will focus not only on the physics but also the biology, ecology and biogeochemistry of the ocean and seafloor and will enhance new partnerships among between governments, science, civil society and the private sector.

CRISPR's Creatures: Protecting Wildlife in the Age of Genomic Editing

Recent advances in genome editing technology have opened the door for scientists to explore beneficial applications of genome editing for wildlife biodiversity and public health. These advances, referred to as the CRISPR toolkit in this Article, can be combined with gene drives to repair damaged ecosystems, enhance conservation efforts, save endangered species, address climate change, prevent diseases, and promote public health. However, the introduction of edited creatures could also negatively impact the original species and disrupt the surrounding ecosystem. Moreover, humanity’s power to manipulate wildlife genes and essentially create evolution by artificial selection also poses significant moral, ethical, and social concerns.Existing statutes and regulations do not sufficiently address the application of this novel genome editing technology to wildlife. First, the federal regulatory regime for biotechnology is outdated, incohesive, and does not efficiently address concerns stemming from use of the CRISPR toolkit. Second, statutory and regulatory language related to predecessor gene editing technologies’ is too narrow to cover the CRISPR toolkit. Third, the CRISPR toolkit and wildlife editing technology are not regulated under environmental statutes and regulations.Given this regulatory gap, this Article argues that the United States should join the Convention on Biological Diversity and use the treaty’s implementing legislation to identify appropriate limitations on the use of the CRISPR toolkit and gene drives. States governments and industry leaders can also prevent negative impacts of wildlife editing by incorporating the ideals expressed in the Convention on Biological Diversity into their regulations and bylaws. Ultimately, the Convention on Biological Diversity provides the best, most forward-looking framework through which to regulate gene editing to protect wildlife during the continued rise of the CRISPR toolkit.

Panama's Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives

This paper estimates medium-term potential growth for a country undergoing significant structural and secular changes. Our forward-looking framework, incorporating three analytical approaches for examining economic prospects, constitutes an important complement to typical backward-looking methods that filter or extrapolate historical data. In particular, the opening of the expanded Panama Canal in 2016 highlights significant structural changes underway in the Panamanian economy. We first analyze growth determinants and find that Panama is well-placed to maintain its business model, with improvements in education and governance important to support growth. Second, the current pipeline of investment projects can help sustain investment-led growth, although at a more moderate pace. Third, further development of the logistics and tourism sectors holds promise to further build on Panama’s comparative advantage.

Panama's Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives

This paper estimates medium-term potential growth for a country undergoing significant structural and secular changes. Our forward-looking framework, incorporating three analytical approaches for examining economic prospects, constitutes an important complement to typical backward-looking methods that filter or extrapolate historical data. In particular, the opening of the expanded Panama Canal in 2016 highlights significant structural changes underway in the Panamanian economy. We first analyze growth determinants and find that Panama is well-placed to maintain its business model, with improvements in education and governance important to support growth. Second, the current pipeline of investment projects can help sustain investment-led growth, although at a more moderate pace. Third, further development of the logistics and tourism sectors holds promise to further build on Panama’s comparative advantage.

Justice forward: Tribes, climate adaptation and responsibility

Federally-recognized tribes must adapt to many ecological challenges arising from climate change, from the effects of glacier retreat on the habitats of culturally significant species to how sea leave rise forces human communities to relocate. The governmental and social institutions supporting tribes in adapting to climate change are often constrained by political obstructions, raising concerns about justice. Beyond typical uses of justice, which call attention to violations of formal rights or to considerations about the degree to which some populations may have caused anthropogenic climate change, a justice framework should guide how leaders, scientists and professionals of all heritages and who work with or for federally-recognized tribes understand what actions are morally essential for supporting tribes’ adaptation efforts. This paper motivates a shift to a forward-looking framework of justice. The framework situates justice within the systems of responsibilities that matter to tribes and many others, which range from webs of inter-species relationships to government-to-government partnerships. Justice is achieved when these systems of responsibilities operate in ways that support the continued flourishing of tribal communities.

Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis: Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk

The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework (Systemic CCA) to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis – Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk

The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework (Systemic CCA) to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

The Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use in the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma

This study analyzes the optimal allocation of the world's land resources over the course of the next century in the dynamic forward-looking framework, which brings together distinct strands of economic, agronomic, and biophysical literature and incorporates key drivers affecting global landuse. We show that, while some deforestation is optimal in the near term, the desirability of further deforestation is elimated by mid-century under the baseline scenario. While the adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, when combined with high growth in energy prices they lead to significant deforestation and higher GHG emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of GHG emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, the effectiveness of such a pre-announced constraint is completely diluted by intertemporal substitution of deforestation which accelerates prior to imposition of the target.

Implications of Some Deficit Reduction Proposals for Retirement Savings

We assess the implications for workers' retirement planning of the provisions on Social Security, Medicare and 401(k) plans from deficit reduction proposals that were put forward by national commissions in 2010. The evaluation uses an updated version of our retirement savings model, which is a rational forward-looking framework that aims to guide a household toward maintaining a roughly constant standard of living before and after retirement. The results show that most of the proposed reforms would lead to higher retirement savings for the household situations illustrated. By contrast, the increase in the Social Security taxable wage maximum would lead to a decrease in retirement savings. Taking all the proposals together, saving rates would be increased by 1-2.3 percentage points, and target retirement replacement rates would increase or decrease depending on household situations.

LOUD AND CLEAR? CAN WE HEAR WHEN THE SARB SPEAKS?

Inflation targeting is a forward-looking framework for monetary policy that has brought unprecedented transparency to the process of monetary policy. This paper aims to assess the degree to which the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has, since the introduction of inflation targeting, successfully communicated to the public its policy analysis, and, in particular, the expected future policy changes. It follows international literature in constructing a numerical index that is used to reflect the information content of the SARB's communications, specifically the monetary policy statements that accompanied each of the MPC meetings since 2000. This method allows us to judge, systematically, the degree to which the MPC has communicated successfully, and the evolution of that success over the past nine years. We find evidence that the MPC has succeeded in signalling their likely future policy decision with consistency over this period.

Competition versus efficiency: What drives franchise values in European banking?

This paper investigates how stock market investors perceive the impact of market structure and efficiency on the long-run performance potential of European banks. To that end, a modified Tobin’s Q ratio is introduced as a measure of bank franchise value. This measure is applied to discriminate between the market structure and efficient-structure hypotheses in a coherent forward-looking framework, in which differences in banks’ horizontal and vertical differentiation strategies are controlled for. The results show that banks with better management or production technologies possess a long-run competitive advantage. In addition, bank market concentration does not affect all banks equally. Only the banks with a large market share in a concentrated market are able to generate non-competitive rents. The paper further documents that the forward-looking, long-run perspective and the noise-adjustment of the performance measure overcome most of the drawbacks associated with testing these hypotheses in a multi-country set-up. Finally, notwithstanding the international expansion of bank activities, the harmonization of regulation and the macroeconomic convergence in the European Union (EU15), we still find that country-specific macroeconomic variables have a significant impact on bank performance. The findings indicate that there is a trade-off between competition and stability that should be taken into account when assessing mergers or acquisitions.