Forward-looking Activities Research Articles

Protective structures as a device of ensuring the safety of victims in a war situation

Interest in protective structures is steadily increasing as the armed conflict in Ukraine unfolds. Experience shows that shelters and hiding places are the most effective form of protection for civilians from conventional and unconventional war threats. Meanwhile, there are no guidelines and rules for the construction of public and private shelters in Poland. The problem is a big one, especially in view of the war that is taking place in the close vicinity of Poland. The purpose of the article is to review Polish and foreign legal and organizational solutions in the field of protective constructions and to indicate the technical requirements necessary to meet in a situation of war danger, with particular emphasis on the use of nuclear weapons. The authors put forward the thesis that in the face of military and non-military threats, the effective way to protect and defend the life and health of the population are properly maintained and managed protective structures, including shelters and hiding places and places of temporary shelter. However, the basic problem remains the question of legal regulation in this regard and the responsibility for their financing and maintenance, which involves the issue of ownership (private and public shelters). In Poland, the experience of other countries that have adopted a variety of solutions should be a guideline for forward-looking activities in the area of protective structures. 

The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Learning Motivation for Deaf Students the Perspective of Teachers

This research aims to identify the current status of artificial intelligence and its potential impact on motivation towards learning. It provides conceptual foundations for thoughtful, policy-oriented work, research, and forward-looking activities that address the opportunities and challenges created by recent developments in artificial intelligence. The research adopts a descriptive approach, using a random sample of 45 male and female teachers from the Zayed Higher Organization. The results show that artificial intelligence plays a significant role in motivating deaf students in the Emirates, as the average responses of the participants reached 3.56 in this area. The results also indicate that there are statistically significant differences, at a significance level of α = 0.05, between the assessments of the study sample members regarding the role of artificial intelligence in motivating deaf students in the United Arab Emirates, depending on gender. In light of these findings, a set of recommendations is presented.

Post-Consumer Plastic Waste Management: From Collection and Sortation to Mechanical Recycling

Challenges associated with plastic waste management range from littering to high collection costs to low recycling rates. Effective collection of plastics is obviously an important step in the management of plastic waste and has an impact on recycling rates. For this reason, several countries have transformed their collection systems in recent decades. Collecting more plastic packaging comes at a cost, as the feedstock for the sorting process becomes more complex and leads to cross-contamination within the sorted fractions. Therefore, a balance must be obtained between some elements, such as the design of packaging, collection and recycling rates, and finally, the quality of fractions that have been sorted. Further investment to improve pretreatment, sorting, and recycling technologies and simpler recyclable packaging designs are, therefore, key to further increasing plastic recycling rates. It is essential to possess more data, especially on the type of containers and plastics, and examine how often unsorted waste is collected. The automated waste collection monitoring system is a step forward in automating manual waste collection and sorting. Multi-sensory artificial intelligence (AI) for sorting plastic waste and the blockchain sorting platform for the circular economy of plastic waste are forward-looking activities that will increase the efficiency of recycling plastic waste. This review focuses on the development of collection systems and sorting processes for post-consumer plastic recycling. The focus is on best practices and the best available technology. Separate collection systems for recyclable plastics are presented and discussed along with their respective technical collection and sorting solutions, taking into consideration that progress in separation and sorting systems are implicitly linked to approaches to waste collection.

Integrating sustainable value thinking into technology forecasting: A configurable toolset for early stage technology assessment

There is an urgent need for technology development to make a sustainable or restorative contribution to the environment, with its inherent links to society and societal welfare. Forward-looking activities, such as firm level technology forecasting and technology intelligence, are increasingly important in providing positive impact that is complementary to policy level interventions. However, selecting and implementing appropriate approaches to conduct these activities and quantifying their value contribution is still difficult. This article seeks to demonstrate how technology opportunities may be explored more effectively by combining existing methods for assessing new technology and identifying sustainable value, in an approach for industry that is both configurable and practical while delivering tangible benefits. It details the two-year university-industry collaboration and testing of a configurable toolset, based on four templates used in a workshop setting. Results indicate that the toolset has successfully probed technological, environmental and social capabilities, promoted the selection and implementation of an appropriate approach and led to the quantification of value through the inclusive, transparent and documented assessment of technology opportunities and the tangible actions identified. In summary, the toolset supports company employees in realising a measure of prospective sensemaking, which is a key deliverable from forward-looking activities.

Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game

AbstractForesight and Horizon Scanning are often regarded as identical concepts with identical models and purposes. But they can be completely different activities, both in and for any kind of prospective activity as well as for strategy purposes. Scanning is no debate and no strategy building. Whereas Foresight is more process‐oriented and always includes a Horizon Scanning phase, Horizon Scanning is rather found at the beginning of any forward‐looking activity and can be an automatized stand‐alone approach for identifying “things to come” ‐ which often means the identification of new science and technology and providing information about them. This paper wants to shed light on some of the confusions in Foresight and Horizon Scanning (HS) that often occur in organizations, among researchers and practitioners being thus of practical and scientific relevance for using an integrated model. The contribution is backed up by a study conducted for the European Commission (Cuhls et al., 2015) conducted to clarify for the Commission’s Foresight department (A6) how the strategic intelligence part of a foresight, the Horizon Scanning, is intertwined with the sense‐making part in similar projects in other parts of the world. The contribution thus starts with a broad definition of Foresight and of Horizon Scanning, explains findings from the study on objectives, methods used and relates the discussion to the EU standard “Foresight Cycle” derived from EFFLA. The conclusions are relevant for decision‐making and strategy processes in the European Commission, for national foresight processes but also for company's and other users.

Monetary Regime Choice and Optimal Credit Rationing at the Official Rate: The Case of Russia

ABSTRACTStabilizing monetary policy in a small open economy is constrained by the open economy trilemma. In this paper, we investigate whether foreign exchange market interventions and the Central Bank’s credit rationing at the official rate (CROR) may soften this constraint and improve the results of monetary policy for different monetary regimes. We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model appropriate for analyzing the forward-looking behavior of households facing non-zero probabilities of losing access to financial market and CROR. We have found significant credit rationing in the quarterly Russian data of 2001:Q1–2014:Q2. The probability of losing access to financial market and the probability of CROR are estimated as 22% and 66%, respectively. Using Russian data of 2001:Q1–2014:Q2 we demonstrate that CROR provoked forward-looking activity in financial market, which led to more Ruble devaluation in the crises of 2008–2009. It improved poor countercyclical performance of two Russian monetary policy rules, whereas made small effect on welfare. Welfare maximization exercises reveal a tradeoff between low-inflation and high-welfare solutions and favor of a floating exchange rate regime. We found the optimal value of the probability of CROR in both exchange rate-based and Taylor rule-based models but resulting improvement in welfare is very small.

Foresight As a Governance Tool to Help Shape the Next Production Revolution

The next production revolution (NPR; also called Industry 4.0 elsewhere) is likely to trigger complex changes via the interactions of new technologies, materials, processes, and business models. These changes would affect RD the labour market; income distribution and well-being; skill requirements; as well as several fields of regulation. Furthermore, digitalisation can be a major enabler of the circular economy. The policy implications of the NPR are so wide-ranging that it is difficult to mention a major policy domain, which would remain untouched by these sweeping changes. The need for policy orchestration is, therefore, rather strong. Foresight, a specific type of forward-looking activities (FLA), can assist policy-makers in dealing with these complex changes. First, it facilitates a systemic approach, considers multiple futures and draws on the diverse set of knowledge of participants. Second, a shared vision, developed – and thus ‘owned’ – by the participants, can reduce the uncertainties generated by NPR, and it helps building commitment among participants as an additional factor to keep up the momentum of orchestrated policy design and implementation. Third, a transformative foresight process, considering and assisting systemic changes triggered by NPR, can contribute to reshaping the prevailing power structures and invigorating policy rationales, decision-making processes, and thus improving the efficacy of policies. FLA projects dealing with NPR issues vary in their thematic coverage and their breadth of participation. Combining these distinctions, four different archetypes of FLA are identified – and illustrated by actual cases – in the paper. The expected impacts on policy-making vary by the type of prospective analyses. Participatory processes mobilise a wider set of knowledge, aspirations, and worldviews compared to an expert-based project. Hence, more novel ideas can be expected, contested from various angles, hence tested more thoroughly, given the diversity of participants. FLA projects focusing on innovation and manufacturing systems consider a broader set of issues than S&T-centred projects. Given the complex issues brought about by the NPR, such a systemic approach seems to be more appropriate as a foundation for devising effective policies. In certain contexts, S&T-centred FLA can also be useful, but different and only more limited benefits and impacts can arise from this approach. Foresight benefits are far from being automatic: the paper considers eight critical factors to achieve those. An astute embedding of foresight into policy-making enhances the likelihood of impact, but foresight recommendations are no substitute for policy decisions and actions.

Cities futures. A critical assessment of how future studies are applied to cities

Purpose This paper aims to assess recent foresight exercises applied to cities by evaluating three major issues. Have foresight practitioners understood cities complexity? Have urban planners used adequate tools to generate plausible future visions? Are city policy makers using foresight studies to limit urban uncertainty? Design/methodology/approach In total, 20 city foresight examples were selected which either have international relevance or which constitute good examples of future-oriented initiatives. Case studies were classified into five taxonomies: European Union initiatives; local initiatives; academic initiatives; corporate initiatives; and architectural initiatives. A set of assessment criteria was established: city complexity conceptualization; methodological approach; and study impact. Findings Preliminary research outcomes show growing doubts about the appropriateness of the foresight tools used in cities and about the competency of foresight practitioners in understanding the complex and dynamic nature of contemporary cities. Furthermore, policy makers do not seem to grasp the potential of foresight to formulate urban strategies. Research limitations/implications Some of the initiatives studied are relatively recent, so impact analysis has been limited by available data. Mostly, secondary documented sources were used to validate cases’ assessment. Research suggests a number of areas in which foresight studies may have a practical application to the urban realm. Originality/value The value of the present work lies in the effort for assessing and improving forward-looking activities undertaken at cities through a set of criteria which take into consideration the complexity and diversity of contemporary cities.

The ‘fit’ between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system: A framework to explore potential impacts

Forward-looking activities (FLAs) can influence innovation systems in various ways to a significant extent. This paper focuses on changes induced by FLAs in the innovation policy governance sub-system (IPGSs) of a given national innovation system. Our knowledge is surprisingly limited even on this subset of FLA impacts, despite several decades of practice and non-negligible analytical efforts. We identify key features of FLAs and IPGSs in order to explore hypotheses on the likely ‘fit’ between different types of FLAs and various IPGSs. Countries selected to illustrate the relevance of our analytical framework include Germany, Greece, and Hungary. Our intention is to contribute to a more refined conceptual framework concerning the role and likely impacts of FLAs. Further, as a better understanding of impacts supports the design of more appropriate and effective FLAs, as well as more insightful evaluations of FLAs, this approach is of practical relevance, too.

Technology foresight in Russia in historical evolutionary perspective

The paper aims to analyse the evolution of forward-looking activities in Russia vis-à-vis science, technology and innovation policy challenges and its development over the last century, with a particular focus on the period of transition to a market economy. With the development of more complex and elaborate policy instruments, demand for a better grounded long-term vision of social and economic trends has been growing both among policy makers and the S&T community. The study illustrates the emergence of technology foresight in Russia and its evolution along relevant stages of economic development, from an information source for S&T and innovation policy towards a fully-fledged anticipatory policy instrument.

The 'Fit' between Forward-Looking Activities and the Innovation Policy Governance Sub-System

Forward-looking activities (FLAs) can influence innovation systems in various ways to a significant extent. This paper focuses on changes induced by FLAs in the innovation policy governance sub-systems (IPGSs) of the national innovation system. Our knowledge is surprisingly limited even on this subset of FLA impacts, despite several decades of practice and non-negligible analytical efforts. We identify key features of FLAs and IPGSs and explore hypotheses on the likely ‘fit’ between different types of FLAs and various IPGSs. Countries selected to illustrate the relevance of our analytical framework include Germany, Greece, and Hungary. Our intention is contribute to a more refined theory building concerning the role and likely impacts of FLAs. Further, as a better understanding of impacts supports the design of more appropriate and effective FLAs, as well as more insightful evaluation of FLAs, this approach is of practical relevance, too.

Strong State, Weak Managers: How Hungarian Firms Cope with Autocracy

This paper investigates how companies manage risk associated with political ties in the context of the ‘return of state capitalism’ in an emerging economy. We show that existing studies of firms’ copying strategies under autocratic regimes are of limited relevance in the context of Hungary, because they lack a sophisticated, theoretically underpinned conceptualisation of ‘the state’. We develop a more fine-grained analysis of the role of the state in emerging markets and show that the type of ‘state capitalism’ that is emerging in Hungary is characterised by the fusion of a governing elite’s political power and economic interests. We show that such a situation poses unique challenges to companies with implications for existing theories of companies’ ‘buffering strategies’. Based on interviews with business leaders in Hungary, we identify two coping strategies: responsiveness – whereby firms accommodate state pressures by giving in to them – and a non-responsive strategy of ‘dormancy’, which consists in firms putting forward-looking activities on hold and focussing on survival. We discuss implications for theories of state capitalism.

The effect of performance measurement systems on firm performance: A cross-sectional and a longitudinal study

Performance measurement (PM) systems have been popularized over the last 20 years and the operations management literature is replete with discussion of metrics and measurement systems. Yet, a comprehensive nomological network relating types of PM system uses to organizational capabilities and performance is lacking. Furthermore, there is scant empirical evidence attesting to the explanatory efficacy of PM systems as it relates to organizational performance. We view PM system uses through the lenses of the Resource Orchestration Theory (ROT) and explore specific relationships of underlying variables by relying on the Organizational Information Processing Theory (OIPT). Resting on the extant literature, we identify two types of uses which include Diagnostic Use (the review of critical performance variables in order to maintain, alter, or justify patterns in an organizational activity) and interactive use (a forward-looking activity exemplified by active and frequent involvement of top management envisioning new ways to orchestrate organizational resources for competitive advantage) and relate them along with their interaction (i.e., dynamic tension) to organizational capabilities. We further link capabilities to target performance, which subsequently impacts organizational performance (operationalized through both perceptual and objective financial performance measures). The nomological network is tested via a cross sectional study (386 Italian firms) while the efficacy of PM systems to explain organizational performance is examined by using longitudinal panel data approaches over a 10 year period. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the use of PM systems leads to improved capabilities, which then impact performance. Contrary to the extant literature, however, we discovered that Diagnostic Use appears to be the most constructive explanatory variable for capabilities. On the other hand, in light of a longitudinal study, we also uncovered that Diagnostic Use experienced depreciating returns as far as objective financial measures are concerned. Also, when high levels of Diagnostic Use were coupled with low levels of Interactive Use, they produced the lowest levels of organizational capabilities. Conversely, high levels of both types of PM system use generated extraordinary high levels of capabilities. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that organizations cannot rely merely on Diagnostic Use of PM systems. We also learned that the effects of PM systems (measured via adaptation) fade unless high learning rates are applied. We offer detailed recommendations for future research which have theoretical as well as empirical implications.

Forward-looking activities: incorporating citizens’ visions

Looking back on the many prophets who tried to predict the future as if it were predetermined, at first sight any forward-looking activity is reminiscent of making predictions with a crystal ball. In contrast to fortune tellers, today’s exercises do not predict, but try to show different paths that an open future could take. A key motivation to undertake forward-looking activities is broadening the information basis for decision-makers to help them actively shape the future in a desired way. Experts, laypeople, or stakeholders may have different sets of values and priorities with regard to pending decisions on any issue related to the future. Therefore, considering and incorporating their views can, in the best case scenario, lead to more robust decisions and strategies. However, transferring this plurality into a form that decision-makers can consider is a challenge in terms of both design and facilitation of participatory processes. In this paper, we will introduce and critically assess a new qualitative method for forward-looking activities, namely CIVISTI (Citizen Visions on Science, Technology and Innovation; www.civisti.org), which was developed during an EU project of the same name. Focussing strongly on participation, with clear roles for citizens and experts, the method combines expert, stakeholder and lay knowledge to elaborate recommendations for decision-making in issues related to today’s and tomorrow’s science, technology and innovation. Consisting of three steps, the process starts with citizens’ visions of a future 30–40 years from now. Experts then translate these visions into practical recommendations which the same citizens then validate and prioritise to produce a final product. The following paper will highlight the added value as well as limits of the CIVISTI method and will illustrate potential for the improvement of future processes.

Мониторинг исследований будущего

Rafael Popper - Research Fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK. E-mail: rafael.popper@manchester.ac.ukAddress: Booth Street West, Manchester, M15 6PB, UK.In recent decades Foresight and other forward-looking activities (FLA) gained ground as a tool of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy. The number of FLA studies is globally rising. To some extent, foresight is governed by context-depended issues; however there are also common features in the objectives, methodology, and recommendations made. Mapping allows codifying and analyzing a bulk of FLA experiences gained worldwide. This in turn will contribute to enhancing performance of such activities and therefore of STI policy as a whole. The paper provides rationales for Futures Studies mapping, considers related opportunities and challenges, reviews lessons learned from early mapping efforts. It focuses on the large-scale EU-funded mapping project “European Foresight Platform” (EFP). Using this project as illustration, the paper describes mapping routines, the selected indicators of mapped Foresight initiatives, including their objectives, participants, target groups, methodologies, outcomes and recommendations. It discusses the potential and the limitations of particular mapping tools as well as possible applications of gained knowledge. Basing on mapping results, policy-makers, for example, are able to identify gaps to be addressed with relevant policy tools, Mapping also allows Foresight practitioners to develop strategies for further research and shape expert networks for their implementation.

Proceedings of the XX congress of the Italian Society for Pure and Applied Biophysics (SIBPA) Arcidosso (Gr), Italy, September 2010

This issue of the European Biophysics Journal contains seven articles based on lectures presented at the XX Meeting of the Italian Society for Pure and Applied Biophysics (Societa Italiana di Biofisica Pura e Applicata, SIBPA), held in Arcidosso (Grosseto, Italy) from 11th to 14th September 2010. The XX meeting of the SIBPA marked a special anniversary for Italian biophysics, as Franco Gambale explained to the audience. The young Italian biophysicists in the audience learnt that use of the term ‘‘biophysics’’ started in the nineteensixties within physics Institutes. As a matter of fact, the basic question in biophysics had already been introduced in 1944 by the winner of the Nobel prize for physics Erwin Schrodinger in his pioneering book ‘‘What is life?’’. By 1950, as many as 200 research centers all around the world had already adopted the word biophysics in their name and had started to investigate living matter to answer Schrodinger’s question ‘‘How can the events in space and time which take place within the spatial boundary of a living organism be accounted for by physics and chemistry?’’. Biophysics research in Italy started playing a role mainly because of the forward-looking activity of the Italian scientists Antonino Borsellino, Adriano Gozzini, and Mario Ageno, physics professors at Genoa, Pisa, and Rome Universities, respectively. Indeed, as early as 1959, Professor Antonino Borsellino organized a series of ‘‘Conferences on Biophysics and Biochemistry’’ in Genoa and, in 1963, the first Italian National Congress of Biophysics in Rome. In 1960 Borsellino also promoted the creation of the Italian Society for Pure and Applied Biophysics, but, unfortunately, owing to a series of impediments, the Society was finally established only in 1973 with Borsellino as its first President. Borsellino also promoted the participation of Italian biophysicists in the ‘‘first’’ International Congress on Biophysics held in Stockholm, Sweden, from July 31st to August 4th 1961, on the initiative of the International Union of Experimental and Theoretical Physics. This was the first meeting gathering biophysicists from around the world. The International Union of Pure and Applied Biophysics was formed and it decided to convene congresses once every three years. Today, therefore, it seems very appropriate to celebrate in this issue the XX SIBPA Congress and 50 years from the first International Biophysics meeting. The Stockholm agenda included: (1) mathematical modeling of biophysical phenomena; (2) new methods in biophysics (laser technology and others); (3) membrane biophysics and (4) vital problems of the molecular bases of virus replication. In some respects, these topics, in an updated version, were still part of the debate within the XX SIBPA meeting dealing with: (1) theories, models, and computational methods in biophysics, (2) spectroscopy and microscopy for biophysics and medical physics, and (3) molecular, cellular, and sensory biophysics. The article presented by Gerardo Abbandonato et al. reports the interesting cis– trans photoisomerization of two butenolide and two pyrrolinone derivatives sharing close structural relationships with the auto-fluorescent protein (AFP) family. The photoinduced alterations of the physicochemical properties of organic molecules are increasingly being investigated with D. Giacomazza (&) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Biofisica (Palermo Research Division), Via Ugo La Malfa, 153-90146 Palermo, Italy e-mail: daniela.giacomazza@pa.ibf.cnr.it

参加型地域づくりにおける住民階層分化の問題に関する事例研究

‘Popular participation’ has become a cliche used in undertaking community design and development. A variety of participatory tools and techniques have been devised and applied to the local exercises. However, even in the local communities where active group of residents, being authorized by the neighborhood council and provided with administrative supports, carries out forward-looking activities, still there largely exist ‘ordinary’ populaces who don't have positive participation in the activities. This study, taking a case of ‘good’ rural community, has made observations concerning the above- mentioned disintegrated situation. The study site is an agricultural community named Shinoba-ku, which is located in Kakegawa City of Shizuoka Prefecture and was awarded a 2002 Community Activity Prize. In this village, while local leaders put into practice such activities as self regulation of land use, countryside forest management, and putting up hand-made street signs, a majority of the populace have nothing to do with these activities. Under present conditions, the local community confronts with serious communication problems that impede effective and efficient decision making, and social dilemma situations in which private and communal interests are at odds have appeared. The dynamics of the situations are such that the cooperative solutions can never be gained for the good of village renewal in accordance with the existing landscape. In order to enhance chances for successive promotion of community design and development, this study examines the relevance of following two countermeasures; 1) establishment and operation of village web site, and 2) enlargement of “new public space” where collective actions towards creating new lifestyles and public deliberations on social matters are organized voluntarily. The questionnaire survey has revealed that 1) a significant number of ordinary populaces, particularly in active working age, are interested in the village web site, 2) though not yet having involved in the community activities within immediate neighborhood, quite a few number of ordinary populaces express their willingness to participate in voluntary environment conservation activities that are organized at wider level of regional society. These results suggest us further examinations on the practical validity of the countermeasures.

Метод Дельфи в Форсайт-проектах

The paper describes best practices of using Delphi surveys in forward-looking activities. Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Some reflections on the federal R&D budget

A budget is always an interesting document. As it involves the hard reality of money and the specific allocation of finite and limited resources, it tends to be a good indicator of the priorities and values in those making it up and footing the bill. This is, of course, true of the federal budget. It can be argued that this is especially true of the federal budget for research and development. As R&D is, by definition, a forward-looking activity, national spending in this area should be a particularly sensitive reflection of the nation's perception of its problems and its hopes for the coming years. It is the clearest single indication of the public's perception of the importance and the specific role of the science and technology community in maintaining and enhancing the nation's welfare and security. The fiscal 1982 federal budget for R&D proposed by the now departed Carter Administration is no exception. As pointed ...