Water freezing, initiated by ice nucleation, occurs widely in nature, ranging from cellular to global phenomena. Ice nucleation has been experimentally proven to require the formation of a critical ice nucleus, consistent with classical nucleation theory (CNT). However, the accuracy of CNT quantitative predictions of critical cluster sizes and nucleation rates has never been verified experimentally. In this study, we circumvent this difficulty by using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. The physical properties of water/ice for CNT predictions, including density, chemical potential difference, and diffusion coefficient, are independently obtained using MD simulation, whereas the calculation of interfacial free energy is based on thermodynamic assumptions of CNT, including capillarity approximation among others. The CNT predictions are compared to the MD evaluations of brute-force simulations and forward flux sampling methods. We find that the CNT and MD predicted critical cluster sizes are consistent, and the CNT predicted nucleation rates are higher than the MD predicted values within three orders of magnitude. We also find that the ice crystallized from supercooled water is stacking-disordered ice with a stacking of cubic and hexagonal ices in four representative types of stacking. The prediction discrepancies in nucleation rate mainly arise from the stacking-disordered ice structure, the asphericity of ice cluster, the uncertainty of ice-water interfacial free energy, and the kinetic attachment rate. Our study establishes a relation between CNT and MD to predict homogeneous ice nucleation.
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