Forward Bias Puzzle Research Articles

Analyzing a dynamic relation between RMB exchange rate onshore and offshore during the extreme market conditions

Using the offshore and onshore market data of the exchange rate between US dollars and Chinese RMB, we analyze the dynamic dependence relation and volatility spillover effect between RMB exchange rates in the offshore and onshore market with the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate volatility Copula and BEKK models, as well as the linkage between these markets that may occur in the extreme market conditions. We find that the volatility clustering and persistence of the RMB exchange rate in the offshore and onshore markets are significant, and there is a two-way volatility spillover effect between these two markets, highlighting the risk transmission mechanism between the RMB exchange rate in the offshore and onshore markets. There is also a significantly positive time-varying dependence relation between the RMB exchange rate in the offshore and onshore markets, with a gradual the price convergence. These findings suggest that risk contagion should be carefully considered between different RMB exchange rate markets for further promoting the marketization formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, and provides a reference of investigating the forward premium bias puzzle of the currency markets.

ТЕОРЕТИЧНІ ПІДХОДИ АНАЛІЗУ ВПЛИВУ ПАРИТЕТІВ НА ФОРМУВАННЯ ВАЛЮТНОГО КУРСУ ТА ВАЛЮТНОГО РИЗИКУ

Effective currency risk management is one of the most critical challenges for developing countries and emerging markets nowadays. Thus, it requires a comprehensive analysis of its causes, nature, factors, and possible consequences. Since the definition of a currency risk relates to unpredictable changes in exchange rates, its analysis means examining exchange rate volatility and formation. International parity conditions are one of the most straightforward and widespread approaches to explaining exchange rate formation. It includes purchasing power parity and interest parity. The first one is based on the law of one price and means the same purchasing power of currencies involved in buying a homogeneous product or a basket of goods in two countries under some conditions. Interest Rate Parity measures expected changes in nominal exchange rate by the difference in nominal interest rates at home and abroad. Nevertheless, clear theoretical foundations and empirical testing of theoretical assumptions have revealed contradictory results. It has led to several anomalies: Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle, Forward Premium Puzzle, and Forward Bias Puzzle. Despite all trials to solve the puzzles using new economic and econometric approaches to explain exchange rate volatility, there are constant and significant rebounds from theoretical models. Thus, we emphasize the need for a multidisciplinary approach to currency risk management that considers economic, political, and social factors. One possible method relates to improving existing models economically (adding new elements) or econometrically (applying the updated mathematical models). An alternative way is to analyze a currency risk as a systematic one depending on global factors. Consequently, the focus on exchange rate modeling and forecasting shifts to calculating and analyzing its premium. This approach might be the most prominent for the Ukrainian economy under postwar instability and fragility. Overall, this article provides valuable insights into the complex world of currency risks and offers practical recommendations for managing these risks in an uncertain global economy.

The existence and severity of the forward premium puzzle during tranquil and turbulent periods: Developed versus developing country currencies

In this paper we investigate the forward premium bias (FPB) puzzle for a number of developed and developing country currencies. Our main objective is to examine the possible variations in the existence and severity of the bias for different currency sets over two sample periods which can be categorized as calm and turbulent periods. We find significant evidence that the FBP tend to vary over time and across currency sets. We also find that the global financial crisis has been a turning point in the variation of the existence and severity of the bias for our currency sets. The results show that different currency sets have been affected by the crisis in different patterns. While the bias disappeared prominently for developed country currencies with the peak of the crisis, it survived and became more pronounced for some high-yielding developing country currencies. The results imply that the FPB is time-varying and its existence and severity vary across and within currency sets depending on the time period under consideration. Overall, the findings of the paper suggest that both time period-specific characteristics as well as currency-specific factors play a vital role for the existence and severity of the FPB.

Inflation targeting and the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries

Based on quarterly data on 31 emerging countries (among which 16 are inflation targeting countries) from 1990Q1 to 2014Q3, we obtain a strong support for the conjecture that the implementation of inflation targeting weakens the Fisherian relation between expected depreciation and the interest rate differential (uncovered interest parity condition) and thus is conducive to the appearance of the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries. We show that this reflects the performance of inflation targeting regimes in lowering the level and volatility of inflation. Our finding holds when controlling for country-specific effects, time-specific effects, global disinflation, exchange rate management, crises, and using different econometric techniques.

Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle

We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time‐varying risk premium consistent with that bias. Using 10 years of data on FX order flow, we find that more than half of the forward bias is accounted for by order flow—with the rest being explained by expectational errors. We also find that carry trading increases currency‐crash risk in that order flow generates negative skewness in FX returns.

The Forward Premium Bias, Carry Trade Return and the Risks of Volatility and Liquidity

In this paper, we analyse the relationship between the currency carry return and volatility and liquidity risk factors. We find that both categories of risk factors are relevant to understanding and explaining carry return, with an outperformance for volatility ones especially the global FX volatility risk factor. Consistent with the poor performance of currency carry trades during high FX volatility regime, we also show that the well-established negative slope coefficient in the Fama regression tends to be more positive and even above unity in times of high FX volatility. The paper, overall, contributes to the risk-based solution of the forward premium bias puzzle.

Evidence of risk premiums in emerging market carry trade currencies

This paper studies the evidence of risk premiums in emerging market carry trade currencies. We verified evidence of a forward bias puzzle and the presence of risk premium for all currencies. Furthermore, unanticipated shocks are of greater influence than fundamental variables in explaining long-term (permanent) risk-premium volatility components. On the other hand, in moments of global market uncertainty related to speculative pressures, the short-term (transitory) risk-premium volatility component increases.

Carry Trades, Order Flow and the Forward Bias Puzzle

We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias. Using ten years of data on FX order flow we find that more than half of the forward bias is accounted for by order flow --- with the rest being explained by expectational errors. We also find that carry trading increases currency-crash risk in that order flow generates negative skewness in FX returns.

Foreign Exchange Markets Efficiency Under Recent Crises: Evidence from the European Markets

This study investigates the European foreign exchange markets efficiency from both the within- and across-country perspectives and subsequently compared them across several recent crises. The European foreign exchange markets are generally efficient over the whole sample period. From the subsample periods analysis, September 11, 2001 event is shown to be the most disturbing event among recent crises. Surprisingly, there is little evidence of disturbance to foreign markets efficiency during the two most recent major crises namely the global financial crisis of 2008/09 and the current European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC). The forward bias puzzle remains a more prominent phenomenon among the advanced countries' currencies than their developing counterparts. There is also evidence showing the convergence in the efficiency condition between the European advanced and developing countries‟ currencies in the later subsample periods. There are three key contributions; one, we have updated the literature until the recent ESDC; two, our results provide comfort to policymakers that the European foreign exchange markets efficiency is least affected by the recent crises; and three, our conclusions support the notion of market efficiency in the long run.

Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of interest rates and exchange rates. Estimating affine (multi-currency) term structure models reveals a noticeable tradeoff between matching depreciation rates and accuracy in pricing bonds. Risk premiums implied by our global affine model generate unbiased predictions for currency excess returns and are closely related to global risk aversion, the business cycle, and traditional exchange rate fundamentals.

Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation

In this paper, we derive the dynamics and assess the economic value of currency speculation by formalizing the concept of a trader inaction range. We show that exchange rate returns comprise a time-varying risk-premium and that uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds in a speculative sense. The often-cited ‘forward bias puzzle’ originates from the omission of the risk-premium in standard UIP tests. Consistent with its popularity among market professionals, the carry-trade strategy can be rationalized as it systematically collects risk-premia, however, the economic value generated by bilateral carry-trades is limited.

Pippenger's CIP-based solution to the forward-bias puzzle: A rejoinder

Pippenger (2011a) proposed a solution to the longstanding forward-bias puzzle that attracted several comments, to which he has recently replied ( Pippenger, 2011b). In this rejoinder it is argued that the points Pippenger raises in defence of his solution do not effectively rebut the concerns originally raised. In addition, his model is found to generate puzzling regression results when applied to real-world data. It is shown that these results arise because his model's coefficients represent (potentially biased) estimates of the covered interest parity equation's coefficients.

The solution to the forward-bias puzzle: Reply

My proposed econometric solution to the forward-bias puzzle provoked several comments. Those comments raise three primary objections to my solution. (1) It suffers from multicollinearity, miss-specification and other serious econometric problems. (2) My key test equation is a tautology or identity. (3) My econometric solution has nothing to do with either the forward-bias puzzle or uncovered interest parity. This is my reply to those objections.

On the (in)feasibility of covered interest parity as a solution to the forward bias puzzle

This paper examines Pippenger's (2011) proposed solution to the forward bias puzzle, which is based on the covered interest parity (CIP) condition. It is argued that the CIP-based approach does not solve this well known and long-standing puzzle in international finance in a meaningful way. Moreover, it is shown that empirical results from such an approach follow mechanically from the identity-like nature of the theory of covered interest parity, which, aside from small deviations due to transaction costs, is assumed to hold in all periods (as if it were an identity). We show that rather than leading to new insights, the simple reconfiguration of CIP to solve for the time t + 1 spot exchange rate leads to tautological expressions that, when estimated, might appear to successfully explain the forward bias, but in actuality are trivial. Results from simple simulation exercises further illustrate the inconclusiveness of the proposed solution method.

The forward-bias puzzle: Still unsolved

Abstract This article argues that Pippenger’s (2011) “Solution to the forward-bias puzzle” must be regarded as an econometric explanation of the famous puzzle, although it does not offer an exhaustive economic answer to it. Some of Pippenger’s (2011) findings are reproduced and established in a cointegrated multiple time series model. It is suggested that economists should stop trying to working out the forward-bias puzzle and start looking for fundamentally better models of foreign exchange rate determination. A tentative alternative is provided.

A comment on: “The solution to the forward-bias puzzle”

Pippenger (2011) recently proposed a solution to the longstanding forward-bias puzzle. He argues that the puzzling estimates obtained using the standard equation for the efficient markets hypothesis are due to omitted variable bias. He identifies the missing variables as the future change in the forward exchange rate and the future interest differential. When these are added to the standard equation, he finds a one-to-one relationship between the future change in the spot rate and the forward premium. However, we argue that his equation can only test covered interest parity and offers no insight into the forward-bias puzzle.

The solution to the forward-bias puzzle

Although it has taken some 30 years to find, the solution to the forward-bias puzzle is straightforward. The standard test equation that produces the puzzle is missing two variables that covered interest parity implies should be included. For my data, those two missing variables explain the downward bias in the forward-bias puzzle. Covered interest parity also solves another closely related puzzle. The variance for changes in exchange rates is 100–200 times larger than the variance in forward premiums.

Forward Bias Trading in Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the returns to forward bias-trading in dynamic multi-currency strategies in order to empirically assess the limits to speculation hypothesis in foreign exchange markets. The results suggest that bias-trading strategies allow for economically significant excess returns, represent attractive diversification devices, and contain low downside risk. Furthermore, enriching carry-trade portfolios with emerging market currencies results in large diversification gains. Overall, the findings are in line with the widespread use of bias-trading strategies among market professionals and challenge the concept of limits to speculation as an explanation for the forward bias puzzle.

Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Economic Value of Currency Speculation

In this paper, we derive the dynamics and assess the economic value of currency speculation by formalizing the concept of a trader inaction range. We show that exchange rate returns comprise a time-varying risk-premium and that uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds in a speculative sense. The often-cited 'forward bias puzzle' originates from the omission of the risk-premium in standard UIP tests. Consistent with its popularity among market professionals, the carry-trade strategy can be rationalized as it systematically collects risk-premia and generates economic value when applied in multi-currency portfolios.

Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transactions costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major market inefficiencies than previously thought. Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile theseresults with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the anomalies documented in previous research.