Hydrocarbon source rocks, as a main geologic factor of petroliferous systems in a sedimentary basin, play a key role in the accumulation of oil and gas and the formation of hydrocarbon accumulations. This study, which focuses on difficulties in prediction of hydrocarbon source rocks in basins or sags with low exploration degree and insufficient hydrocarbon source rock indicators, taking the Wenchang Formation of northern Zhu I Depression, Pearl River Mouth Basin as an example, proposed a hypothesis of “finding lakes and hydrocarbon source rocks”. Detailed steps include, first, determination of the lacustrine basin boundary according to analysis of seismic foreset facies, determination of the depositional area based on the compilation of strata residual thickness maps, determination of the lacustrine basin shape according to deciphering slope break belt system, determination of the fluctuation of paleo-water depth according to biogeochemical indicators of mature exploration areas, determination of the lacustrine basin scale based on analyses of tectonics intensity and accommodation space, which prove the existence of the lacustrine basin and identify the range of semi deep-deep lake; second, further analyses of tectonopalaeogeomorphology, paleo-provenance, palaeoclimate and paleo-water depth to reconstruct the geologic background of the original basin and semi-deep-deep lacustrine facies, to determine the distribution of semi-deep/deep lacustrine sediments in combination with studies of logging facies, core facies, seismic facies and sedimentary facies, and to rank the sags’ potential of developing hydrocarbon source rocks from controlling factors of source-to-sink system development; third, on the basis of regional sedimentary facies analysis, through identification and assessment of seismic facies types of semi-deep/deep lacustrine basins in mature areas, establishing “hydrocarbon source rock facies” in mature areas to instruct the identification and depicting of hydrocarbon source rocks in semi-deep/deep lacustrine basins with low exploration degree; fourth, through systematical summary of hydrocarbon-rich geological factors and lower limit index of hydrocarbon formation of the sags already revealed by drilling wells (e.g., sag area, tectonic subsidence amount, accommodation space, provenance characteristic, mudstone thickness, water body environment, sedimentary facies types of hydrocarbon source rocks), in correlation with corresponding indexes of sags with low exploration degree, then the evaluation and sorting of high-quality source rocks in areas with sparsely distributed or no drilling wells can be conducted with multi-factors and multiple dimensions. It is concluded that LF22 sag, HZ10 sag and HZ8 sag are II-order hydrocarbon rich sags; whereas HZS, HZ11 and HZ24 are the III-order hydrocarbon-generating sags.