Forest Reference Level Research Articles

Land use/land cover change and carbon footprint in tropical ecosystems in Benin, West Africa

Extensive research has explored land use and land cover change (LULCC) in tropical ecosystems, but more detailed carbon footprint data is essential for defining strategies to enhance carbon sinks. This study assessed LULCC and its associated carbon footprints in different natural ecosystems. It also established forest reference levels (FRL). We used Landsat images for supervised classification and conducted forest inventories in 186 plots that span moist semi-deciduous forest, swamp forest, gallery forest, woodland and savannah areas. Biomass calculations employed allometric models, biomass expansion factors, and root-to-shoot ratios. Except in Lama Forest Reserve, anthropogenic pressures led to the regressive conversion of natural forest areas to savannah, croplands, and fallows. A progressive trend was observed in semi-deciduous forest (3.18 % per year), resulting in a positive LULC carbon footprint (16.06 tCO2eq.yr−1ha−1). 41.94 % of typical swamp forest was lost, releasing -62.89 tCO2eq.yr−1ha−1. Similarly, woodland decreased by -1.48 and -5.89 % per year, according to considered site, with emissions of -12.16 and -21.83 tCO2eq.yr−1ha−1, respectively. FRL followed the gradient of canopy cover of the different vegetation types. The results highlight the need for adequate conservation and management, considering land use and cover specifics, and provide useful baselines for REDD+ activities in countries with similar ecosystems.

The role of social forestry in achieving NDC targets: Study cases of Lampung and DI Yogyakarta

Social Forestry (SF) in Indonesia has emerged as a keystone strategy for Sustainable Forest Management. By allocating 12.7 million ha of forest to be managed by local communities, the government has set in motion an ambitious plan for SF to reduce poverty, empower local people, and improve forest conditions. More recently, SF is framed for its opportunity to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study focused on examining the contribution of SF to the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals in Yogyakarta and Lampung. By analyzing spatial data of SF areas and land cover changes using ArcView 10.8, the study assessed the carbon stock potential in SF areas. Carbon stock calculations were based on the 2022 National Forest Reference Level (FRL) for the periods before and after SF implementation. The finding of the study indicated that the carbon stock of SF areas in Yogyakarta and Lampung ranged from 9,214,381 to 9,923,420 ton CO2eq prior to SF, while the current carbon stock ranges from 8,703,489 to 9,393,706 ton CO2eq, representing a decrease (around 5.4%) rather than an increase. Overall, the changes in carbon stock were relatively small and localized, and the magnitude of the increase was insufficient to offset the overall decrease. To achieve the objectives of SF, such as meeting emission targets and achieving sustainable land use, it is crucial to carefully manage forest edges and fragmented forests, as they can contribute to carbon stock losses. Additionally, further studies and research are needed to improve the accuracy of carbon stock calculations, particularly for non-forest categories, which have higher uncertainty in the reference levels

European forest sinks and climate targets: past trends, main drivers, and future forecasts

We examine the evolution of European net sinks towards 2030 and the European Union’s (EU) climate neutrality target by 2050. The EU’s current land use policy for 2021–2030 is divided into two periods: 2021–2025 and 2026–2030. The national inventory data from several databases and statistical analyses are used to examine the trends and drivers and to forecast future forest sinks and the net sinks of the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. Our forecasts suggest that national forest sinks will be short of the agreed forest reference levels in most member states in 2021–2025, with a total of 128 MtCO2eq. For 2026–2030, the net sink for the whole EU LULUCF sector will be short of the EU target by 298 MtCO2eq. Thus, most member states must design more efficient LULUCF policies to fulfil their national targets. Furthermore, the decreasing trends in the LULUCF sinks also emphasize the need to reduce emissions and to increase the sinks in most member states so that the EU can achieve its climate neutrality goal by 2050.

Satellite-based global maps are rarely used in forest reference levels submitted to the UNFCCC

The Earth observation (EO) community is coordinating a range of activities in support of the Global Stocktake. One objective is to enhance the uptake of satellite-based global-scale maps (hereafter ‘EO products’) in national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To measure progress towards this objective, we compile information on the use of EO products on land cover, fire, and above-ground biomass to derive carbon flux estimates in forest reference levels from 56 tropical countries submitted to the UNFCCC between 2014–2022. The global forest change (GFC) was the only EO product used to measure land extent and change, and was used by almost half the countries. Only two countries used existing EO products for fire mapping. Four countries used biomass maps, although only indirectly, such as for comparing with biomass estimates from field plot measurements or with IPCC defaults. The uptake is limited but improved the measurement, reporting and verification capacity of 22 countries. The relatively high uptake of the GFC demonstrates the importance of meeting essential conditions in the IPCC guidance when developing EO products, including conditions on spatial and temporal resolution, temporal coverage and consistency, and the flexibility to adapt to biophysical thresholds in national definitions. The limited use of other global land EO products underlines the need for developers of EO products to interact with groups responsible for GHG inventories and experts familiar with IPCC guidance so that their products are suitable for national reporting, and thus contribute to more complete aggregated estimates in the Global Stocktake.

Adaptive approaches to REDD+ are needed for countries with high forest cover and low deforestation rates

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) aims to maintain forest carbon stocks above benchmark reference levels through financial compensation. However, countries with high forest cover and low deforestation (HFLD) are unlikely to be compensated fairly if REDD+ initiatives fail to conserve existing forests and to incentivize low deforestation rates. Here we analyze the submissions of forest reference levels (FRLs) of five HFLD countries [Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Republic of the Congo (Congo), Guyana, Papua New Guinea, Suriname] to the REDD+ platform of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We assessed if the FRLs are likely to yield compensation payments that maintain carbon stocks above the business-as-usual scenario and compared the FRLs with quantitative emission data. Our results show that only Guyana submitted an FRL that yielded sufficient monetary incentives for low deforestation rates. Compensation payments will likely be insufficient in Suriname, Papua New Guinea, and the Congo. The FRL of the DRC would generate the highest compensation payment (on average US$ 1.3 billion annually). Overall, our results suggest that payments from REDD+ will fail to provide adequate incentives for most HFLD countries. We suggest that the FRL should allow for post hoc adaptation to changes in the drivers of deforestation. This implies that REDD+ schemes need sufficient flexibility to reflect changes in the opportunity costs of alternative land uses, which is particularly acute for HFLD countries where pressure on forests can accumulate rapidly. More adaptive REDD+ likely better rewards HFLD countries in ways that preserve their valuable forest ecosystems.

EU Forest reference levels: The compatible harvest volumes compiled and assessed in terms of forest sector market development

This study assesses harvest levels compatible with the reference levels for forest management sinks (FRLs) within the EU, the UK, and Norway (EU + UK + N). A detailed examination of the harvest data and the National Forest Accounting Plans of the countries within this region reveals that the countries have calculated their FRLs based on different modelling approaches and that the quality of data used has not always been sound. The process of preparing the FRLs has most likely contributed to improvements in this regard, but obtaining comparable and reliable data on the harvest levels compatible to the FRLs still represents a challenge. We estimated that within EU + UK + N, the aggregated FRL-compatible harvests would be 597 Mm3/a over bark for the first compliance period 2021–2025 and 619 Mm3/a over bark for the second compliance period 2026–2030. Comparing the FRL-compatible harvest levels to future harvests projected by linear trend and by global forest sector modelling, we found that some of the countries seemed likely to reach their FRLs without needing to deviate from their market-driven harvests, whereas the region as a whole would not reach its FRLs without measures taken to decrease the harvests. If harvests would be reduced from the market driven levels, it would cause harvest leakage to the other countries. We found that for each 1 m3 of roundwood harvest reduction in EU + UK + N in year 2030, roundwood harvest would increase by some 0.64 m3 in rest of the world, giving a leakage rate of 64%. In addition to harvest leakage, there would also be some leakage of forest industry production. The leakage effect strongly weakens the effectiveness and cost efficiency of reducing harvests in the EU as a policy means for climate change mitigation.

Monitoring the Multiple Functions of Tropical Rainforest on a National Scale

National Forest Inventory (NFI) protocols have traditionally been designed to assess land coverage and the production value of forest. We propose that this approach needs to evolve toward multipurpose resource survey with broader scope, including data on plant and animal biodiversity, forest carbon pools, and carbon sequestration, given the role of forests in addressing climate change. New Guinea hosts the third largest tropical rainforest in the world and is a globally recognized center of biological diversity and endemism. Here, we report on the NFI by the Government of Papua New Guinea (PNG); designed to assess and monitor the country’s forests for multiple parameters including timber and nontimber resources, greenhouse gases sequestration and storage, and biodiversity. Stratified sampling with clusters of plots was applied to collect quantitative data on a wide range of variables including soil, tree and nontree species as well as birds and three types of insects: ants, geometrid moths, and fruit flies. In total 43 cluster sites, each with multiple plots were assessed. These partial results, from the projected total of 200 clusters, have demonstrated the feasibility and usefulness of the expanded approach to national forest surveys. They contributed to the Biennial Update Report on climate change for PNG and the formation of climate change policies such as the National Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation+ Strategy and the developments of PNG’s Forest Reference Level, and the enhanced (second) Nationally Determined Contributions for PNG. They will also inform the biodiversity conservation and forestry policies in the future.

From Paris to Switzerland: Four Pathways to a Forest Reference Level

Introduction: Among terrestrial ecosystems, forests represent large carbon stocks threatened by changing climatic conditions, deforestation, overexploitation, and forest degradation. Close to nature forestry may help forests to continue to acting as carbon sinks by promoting their resilience against disturbances. The EU decided to carry out carbon accounting of emissions and removals from managed forests under the Paris Agreement (PA) by using a projected Forest Reference Level (FRL) based on the continuation of recent management practices.Methods: We developed four conceptual scenarios that could build the Swiss Forest Reference Level and performed simulations over 50 years using Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI) data and the empirical forest model MASSIMO. To improve MASSIMO, we further developed a new tree species-specific model for small scale mortality that accounts for the Swiss NFI design. Then, using projected biomass and mortality from MASSIMO, carbon budgets of mineral soil, litter, and dead wood were estimated using the Yasso07 model.Results: The U-shaped mortality model performed well (AUC 0.7). Small as well as large trees had the highest mortality probabilities, reflecting both young trees dying due to self-thinning and old trees from age, pests or abiotic influences. All scenarios matched their given harvesting and growing stock targets, whereby the share of broadleaves increased in all regions of Switzerland. This resulted in decreasing biomass growth, possibly due to a species shift from typically fast growing and more shade tolerant conifers to broadleaves. The CO2-balance of the conceptual scenarios ranged from 1.06 to −3.3 Mt CO2 a–1 under Increased Harvesting and Recent Management Practices (RMP), respectively. Rotation periods are shortened under Increased Harvesting, which is an important climate adaptive management strategy, but forests were predicted to become a net carbon source. In contrast, RMP resulted in similar harvesting amounts and forests as carbon sinks, as reported in the past. Further, the RMP scenario does not involve political assumptions and reflects the idea of the CMP approach used by the EU member states, which makes it comparable to other countries. Therefore, we propose the scenario RMP as a suitable and ideal candidate for the Swiss FRL.

Setting the forest reference levels in the European Union: overview and challenges

BackgroundThe contribution of EU forests to climate change mitigation in 2021–2025 is assessed through the Forest Reference Levels (FRLs). The FRL is a projected country-level benchmark of net greenhouse gas emissions against which the future net emissions will be compared. The FRL models the hypothetical development of EU forest carbon sink if the historical management practices were continued, taking into account age dynamics. The Member States’ FRLs have been recently adopted by the European Commission with the delegated Regulation (EU) 2021/268 amending the Regulation (EU) 2018/841. Considering the complexity of interactions between forest growth, management and carbon fluxes, there is a need to understand uncertainties linked to the FRL determination.ResultsWe assessed the methodologies behind the modelled FRLs and evaluated the foreseen impact of continuation of management practices and age dynamics on the near-future EU27 + UK forest carbon sink. Most of the countries implemented robust modelling approaches for simulating management practices and age dynamics within the FRL framework, but faced several challenges in ensuring consistency with historical estimates. We discuss that the projected 16% increase in harvest in 2021–2025 compared to 2000–2009, mostly attributed to age dynamics, is associated to a decline of 18% of forest sink (26% for living biomass only).ConclusionsWe conclude that the FRL exercise was challenging but improved the modelling capacity and data availability at country scale. The present study contributes to increase the transparency of the implementation of forest-related EU policies and provides evidence-based support to future policy development.

Allocating the REDD+ national baseline to local projects: A case study of Cambodia

This study aimed to propose a set of decision support tools to allocate Cambodia's REDD+ national baseline or initial forest reference level (FRL) to local REDD+ projects, based on their forest cover and forest carbon stocks, and the historical deforestation trends in their reference regions. Our samples included 77 hypothetical REDD+ projects and five actual REDD+ projects. To identify reference regions for our samples, a cluster analysis of 127 districts in Cambodia was conducted using the Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) algorithm (or k-medoids method). To calculate the baseline amount to be allocated to projects, four allocation methods were proposed. Two methods used ‘snapshot’ variables (i.e., [1] existing forest area or [2] forest carbon stock) and two used ‘change’ variables (i.e., [3] historical forest area change or [4] historical forest carbon stock change from 2006 to 2014). We weighted the baseline by the deforestation risk in 2014. We found that ‘snapshot’ methods tended to allocate more baseline if the project had more forest cover or forest carbon stocks. In contrast, ‘change’ methods tended to allocate more baseline if the project has more forest area loss or forest carbon stock loss between 2006 and 2014 in its reference region. These differences suggest that the ‘snapshot’ methods do not consider the inequity in the amount of baseline allocated to the projects. This inequity stems from the different degree of effort made by project stakeholders to protect their forests. The degree of effort varies depending on the historical deforestation trend in a project's reference region. However, the ‘change’ methods explicitly incorporate the trend into their calculations of baseline allocations. Technically, the ‘change’ method [4] seems to be the desired choice for allocating FRL to local projects; this is because it fits best with the idea of counter-factual thinking using a ‘reference period’ that a national baseline must have under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ‘change’ methods are less likely to stimulate further deforestation, in a jurisdiction with high forest cover or forest carbon stocks that does not have a REDD+ project, compared with the ‘snapshot’ methods. However, the ‘change’ methods are more likely to face the challenge of political adjustment to balance the reduced emissions from some jurisdictions/projects with increased emissions from the other jurisdictions/projects, compared with the ‘snapshot’ methods. The findings are applicable not only in Cambodia but also in other REDD+ countries that include deforestation as one of the five REDD+ activities, within the scope of their national baseline submission to the UNFCCC. The study's outcomes will facilitate stakeholder dialogue on the proportions of national baseline allocated to sub-national programs/projects by showing the technical and political implications of the proposed allocation methods.

Initial forest age distribution may generate computational sinks or sources of carbon: A generic approach to test assumptions underlying the EU LULUCF forest reference levels

BackgroundThe current EU LULUCF regulation calls for member state-specific Forest Reference Levels (FRLs) for benchmark in the accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals of managed forest land during the compliance period (2021–2030). According to the technical guidance on developing and reporting the FRLs, it could be actualized by projecting a ratio of harvested to total available biomass. We tested how the initial age distribution may affect the aforementioned ratio by simulating the continuation of forest management based on several descriptive shapes of forest age class distribution.ResultsOur simulations suggest that when the FRLs are prepared by employing the harvest ratio and forest management is assumed strictly age dynamics driven, the shape of the initial forest age class distribution gives rise to computational sinks or sources of carbon in managed forest land. Harvests projected according to the ratio corresponded those resulting from the age dynamics only in the case of uniform age distribution.ConclusionsThe result calls for a better consideration of variation in initial states between countries when determining the future LULUCF regulation. Our exercise demonstrates how generic simulations in a standardized modeling framework could help in ex-ante impact assessment of proposed changes to the LULUCF regulation.

Requirements and Realities of REDD+ Implementation in Nigeria

Negotiations and decisions of the 2007 and 2010 Conference of the Parties (COP) sessions at Bali and Cancun enabled participants to develop pilot projects leading into a national strategy on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) ‘Readiness’. REDD+ provides incentives for countries to receive payments for restraining greenhouse gas emissions through forest conservation, sustainable forest management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. The overarching Warsaw Framework on REDD+ set at COP19 in 2013 provided guidelines for how countries can work towards eligibility for results-based payments for carbon savings from REDD+. It included seven points covering governance issues, approaches to reference emissions level estimation, forest inventory and reporting obligations. In this paper we examine the case of REDD+ in Nigeria by assessing how effectively that nation has implemented the Warsaw Framework requirements. We determine that the country’s over-ambitious political motivation for REDD+ affected not only the practical design of its National Strategy but also distracted management from establishing adequate safeguards for the program. Lack of capacity in advanced modeling hindered the establishment of the forest emissions reference level. That step was essential to enabling payments for reported and verified emission reduction outcomes. We reveal that national circumstances like forest governance, capacity, and political factors significantly influenced the effectiveness of pilot programs. From the Nigerian case, we maintain that effective REDD+ pilot programs should ensure that there is: full and active engagement with relevant stakeholders; a comprehensive review of forest management policies and regulations to establish a reliable forest reference level; a rigorous and robust national forest monitoring system; and safeguards to assist implementation and distribute carbon benefit-sharing rights.

Comprehensive Accounting for REDD+ Programs: A Pragmatic Approach as Exemplified in Guyana

Completeness is an important element for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) accounting to ensure transparency and accountability. However, including a full accounting for all emission sources in a REDD+ program is often resource-intensive and cost-prohibitive, especially considering that some emission sources comprise far less than 10% of total emissions and are thus considered insignificant according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidance. This is evident in forest reference emission level (FREL)/forest reference level (FRL) submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Of the 50 countries that have submitted FRELs to date, only half of them include degradation in their FRELs even though degradation is often a significant source of emissions. Half of the countries that do include degradation use satellite imagery without necessarily specifying degrading activities or separating anthropogenic activities. Guyana provides an example of an approach that enables inclusion of all emission sources while considering the significance of each when developing an accounting approach. Since submitting its FREL in 2014, Guyana has made stepwise improvements to its emission estimates so that the country is now able to report on all deforestation and degradation activities resulting in emissions, whether significant or not. Based on the example of Guyana’s efforts, the authors recommend a simple approach to move towards complete accounting in a cost-effective manner. This approach can be scaled to other countries with other activities that results in greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Such complete accounting allows for higher accountability in REDD+ systems and can lead to greater effectiveness in reducing emissions.

The Effect of Harvesting on National Forest Carbon Sinks up to 2050 Simulated by the CBM-CFS3 Model: A Case Study from Slovenia

With the advent of global warming, forests are becoming an increasingly important carbon sink that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change. An understanding of the carbon dynamics of forests is, therefore, crucial to implement appropriate forest management strategies and to meet the expectations of the Paris Agreement with respect to international reporting schemes. One of the most frequently used models for simulating the dynamics of carbon stocks in forests is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). We applied this model in our study to evaluate the effects of harvesting on the carbon sink dynamics in Slovenian forests. Five harvesting scenarios were defined: (1) business as usual (BAU), (2) harvesting in line with current forest management plans (PLAN), (3) more frequent natural hazards (HAZ), (4) high harvest (HH) and (5) low harvest (LH). The simulated forest carbon dynamics revealed important differences between the harvesting scenarios. Relative to the base year of 2014, by 2050 the carbon stock in above-ground biomass is projected to increase by 28.4% (LH), 19% (BAU), 10% (PLAN), 6.5% (HAZ) and 1.2% (HH). Slovenian forests can be expected to be a carbon sink until harvesting exceeds approximately 9 million m3 annually, which is close to the calculated total annual volume increase. Our results are also important in terms of Forest Reference Levels (FRL), which will take place in European Union (EU) member states in the period 2021–2025. For Slovenia, the FRL was set to −3270.2 Gg CO2 eq/year, meaning that the total timber harvested should not exceed 6 million m3 annually.

Assessing SAR C-band data to effectively distinguish modified land uses in a heavily disturbed Amazon forest

The Amazon is the largest expanse of tropical rainforest globally and deforestation resulting from land use changes poses a major concern for sustainable resource management. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data have all-weather and all-day capability, and thus are well-suited for mapping land use land cover (LULC) in tropical regions, which are seasonally influenced by cloud cover. Understanding modified land uses and drivers of deforestation is fundamental for the development of policies and measures to reduce emissions and for developing forest reference levels. Sentinel-1 C-band SAR data present unprecedented potential since the observations are free and openly available, providing for the first regular and standardize SAR data. This study analyzes the applicability of Sentinel-1 data for LULC classification as an effort to differentiate modified land uses, which is a current need for early-warning deforestation systems. The study area covers a deforestation frontier in the Peruvian Amazon where the landscape is characterized by a mosaic of LULC types. Collect Earth Online is used for reference LULC data collection, and seven classes are defined for this study: forest, secondary vegetation, agriculture, pasture, urban, mining, water. Amplitude γo time-series spanning 2017–2019 are analyzed along with statistical metrics for each class, and a classification decision tree is developed in Google Earth Engine. Overall accuracy obtained is considered low (52%). Results show high user's accuracy for forest and water classification, a lot of confusion between agriculture, secondary vegetation, and forest, and the use of the polarization ratio VV/VH is suggested to be useful for pasture classification. The orientation of streets in a urban environment is confirmed to have high influence on backscattering response. This study provides information for future research on LULC and the identification of drivers in deforestation monitoring systems that could result in additional actionable information for decision-making.

The Effect of Alternative Forest Management Models on the Forest Harvest and Emissions as Compared to the Forest Reference Level

Background and Objectives: Under the Paris Agreement, the European Union (EU) sets rules for accounting the greenhouse gas emissions and removals from forest land (FL). According to these rules, the average FL emissions of each member state in 2021–2025 (compliance period 1, CP1) and in 2026–2030 (compliance period 2, CP2) will be compared to a projected forest reference level (FRL). The FRL is estimated by modelling forest development under fixed forest management practices, based on those observed in 2000–2009. In this context, the objective of this study was to estimate the effects of large-scale uptake of alternative forest management models (aFMMs), developed in the ALTERFOR project (Alternative models and robust decision-making for future forest management), on forest harvest and forest carbon sink, considering that the proposed aFMMs are expanded to most of the suitable areas in EU27+UK and Turkey. Methods: We applied the Global Forest Model (G4M) for projecting the harvest and sink with the aFMMs and compared our results to previous FRL projections. The simulations were performed under the condition that the countries should match the harvest levels estimated for their FRLs as closely as possible. A representation of such aFMMs as clearcut, selective logging, shelterwood logging and tree species change was included in G4M. The aFMMs were modeled under four scenarios of spatial allocation and two scenarios of uptake rate. Finally, we compared our results to the business as usual. Results: The introduction of the aFMMs enhanced the forest sink in CP1 and CP2 in all studied regions when compared to the business as usual. Conclusions: Our results suggest that if a balanced mixture of aFMMs is chosen, a similar level of wood harvest can be maintained as in the FRL projection, while at the same time enhancing the forest sink. In particular, a mixture of multifunctional aFMMs, like selective logging and shelterwood, could enhance the carbon sink by up to 21% over the ALTERFOR region while limiting harvest leakages.

Monitoring agroforestry for REDD+ implementation using remote sensing data and geographic information system: A case study of Repong Damar, Pesisir Barat Lampung

Repong Damar is a unique practice of agroforestry found in Lampung that has a canopy structure nearly similar to that of natural forest. Apart from its uniqueness and important roles, effort to map and timely monitor the condition over Repong Damar is very limited. This research aims to analyze the most appropriate and accurate method for detecting Repong Damar using satellite images and to understand the historical change of Repong Damar cover. We tried to relate this effort to REDD+ potential implementation through agroforestry by estimating the forest reference level (FRL) of Repong Damar. Three methods of detection were used i.e. Object Oriented Classification (OOC), Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) and Vegetation Indices Classification (VIC). The most accurate method for detecting Repong Damar was the OOC. By using this method, time-series change of Repong Damar from 1990 to 2018 was determined. FRL was established by multiplying carbon stock of Repong Damar and the time-series average coverage area of Repong Damar from 1990 to 2015, i.e. 33,187,752 tC/yr. The emission performance of Repong Damar in 2018 was calculated from the total carbon stock of Repong Damar in 2018 against FRL. Repong Damar has emitted 1,485,378 tons of carbon in 2018.

VERIFICATION OF APPLICABILITY OF FOREST GROWTH MODEL AGM IN ELABORATION OF FORESTRY PROJECTIONS FOR NATIONAL FOREST REFERENCE LEVEL

Latvia's forest reference level (FRL) should take in account the future impact of dynamic age-related forest characteristics in order to avoid unduly constraining the forest management intensity as a core element of sustainable forest management practice, with the aim of maintaining or strengthening long-term carbon sinks. The basic for calculations of GHG projections is AGM (Forest growth model) and EPIM (Emissions Projections and Inventory Model). The scope of the study is to verify applicability of the AGM model in elaboration of the forestry projections for elaboration of the FRL according to regulation (EU) 2018/841.

Fluctuations in gross volume increment estimated by the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory compared with annual variations in single tree increment

There are significant inter-annual fluctuations of growing stock volume changes of living trees estimated by the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory (NFI). In the current study, we compared two sources of information on forest productivity: conventional NFI data and dendrochronological data based on tree cores collected in parallel with the measurements of the fourth Lithuanian NFI cycle during 2013–2017 on the same permanent plots (total number of cores was 4967). The main finding is that the dendrochronological basal area increment data confirmed the depression of gross stand volume increment around 2006–2007 (based on Lithuanian NFI measurements in 2008–2009), followed by a steep increase during 2008–2011 (NFI from 2010–2013). The findings explain the differences between projected growing stock volume change, which have been used for forest reference level estimation according to land use, land-use change and forestry sector regulation, and the one recently provided in National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports.
 Key words: Growing stock volume change, basal area increment, forest reference level, greenhouse gas reporting

Impact of modelling choices on setting the reference levels for the EU forest carbon sinks: how do different assumptions affect the country-specific forest reference levels?

BackgroundIn 2018, the European Union (EU) adopted Regulation 2018/841, which sets the accounting rules for the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector for the period 2021–2030. This regulation is part of the EU’s commitments to comply with the Paris Agreement. According to the new regulation, emissions and removals for managed forest land are to be accounted against a projected forest reference level (FRL) that is estimated by each EU Member State based on the continuation of forest management practices of the reference period 2000–2009. The aim of this study is to assess how different modelling assumptions possible under the regulation may influence the FRL estimates. Applying the interlinked G4M and WoodCarbonMonitor modelling frameworks, we estimate potential FRLs for each individual EU Member State following a set of conceptual scenarios, each reflecting different modelling assumptions that are consistent with the regulation and the technical guidance document published by the European Commission.ResultsThe simulations of the conceptual scenarios show that differences in the underlying modelling assumptions may have a large impact on the projected FRL. Depending on the assumptions taken, the projected annual carbon sink on managed forest land in the EU varies from −319 MtCO2 to −397 MtCO2 during the first compliance period (2021–2025) and from −296 MtCO2 to −376 MtCO2 during the second compliance period (i.e. 2026–2030). These estimates can be compared with the 2017 national GHG inventories which estimated that the forest carbon sink for managed forest land was −373 MtCO2 in 2015. On an aggregated EU level, the assumptions related to climate change and the allocation of forest management practices have the largest impacts on the FRL estimates. On the other hand, assumptions concerning the starting year of the projection, stratification of managed forest land, and timing of individual management activities are found to have relatively small impacts on the FRL estimates.ConclusionsWe provide a first assessment of the level of uncertainty associated with the different assumptions discussed in the technical guidance document and the LULUCF regulation, and the impact of these assumptions on the country-specific FRL. The results highlight the importance of transparent documentation by the EU Member States on how their FRL has been calculated, and on the underlying assumptions.